also duty-free guys falling over and grabbing their shins
Tales from the Dorkside: Guernica in Maize
[Editor's note: bumped. At this rate I'm going to be a spectator around these parts soon.]
Herein lies data. For those readers who prefer to skip my right brained musings in a tenacious fit to resist all culture and proceed directly to the left-brained portion of the show proceed to the So, How Goes It? section. Ahem…
The fallout from Michigan’s catastrophic failure against Illinois has left in its wake a fan base wretched in suffering. And anger. And chaos. And despair. A veritable Guernica in Maize. Pablo Picasso’s renowned painting might as well have been painted in the aftermath of last Saturday’s loss. The centerpiece of the painting features Michigan’s Defense (the horse) in the throes of death complete with Juice Williams as javelin gashing it right up the middle, exposing the gaping wound that is Michigan’s defensive barracks.
All of the major players are shown:
- Terrorized souls engulfed in the inferno of buyer’s remorse (far right).
- Horrified and confused onlookers (center right).
- Dismembered soldiers , also known as The Legend of Tate Forcier: Heisman Freshman ;complete with shattered sword (bottom).
- Grieving mother clutching the lifeless corpse of her child (read.: hope; far left).
Even the Eye of Mordor (read: FreeP) is represented (top). Not to mention that weird looking bull thing with fire coming out of it’s butt (left). I guess that’s Brian?
Anyway, Such a scene makes the reasonable observer wonder—what is up the suck? Misopogon has thoroughly sifted through the immediately obvious symptoms of poor defensive play and walk-on starters to provide tremendous insight into the plight of the defense. He has emphatically demonstrated the task Rich Rodriguez and his man Greg Robinson have in front of them if they are to their save their jobs and save Ann Arbor from burning: fix the defense. Accomplishing this will not be easy and it will test Rodriguez’s mettle as a head coach. And it will take time.
So how goes it?
I think reasonable people would agree that it’s not yet time to render a final verdict…at least as far as the defense is concerned. So let’s focus on what is reasonable to evaluate Rodriguez on at this point in time: offensive production. He’s had ample time to demonstrate core competencies in his area of expertise. He’s recruited his guys, has a reasonable amount of talent depth (inexperienced or not), and has had a reasonable amount of time to install his system.
The prototype I’m using as the model of what the performance of what a good offense should be will be the unit RR replaced, 2007 Michigan. That team had the requisite talent and experience at every single position: an offensive line that featured two three time lettermen (Jake Long- RS Sr. and Adam Kraus-RS Sr.), a three time letterman at QB (Chad Henne, Sr), a three time letterman at RB (Mike Hart, Sr), and three 2-time letterman at WR (Mario Manningham, Jr; Adrian Arrington, Sr; Greg Mathews, So). That’s as good a squad that a coach can ask for.
While the schemes employed by that offense are drastically different from what is currently being used at Michigan, the differences are irrelevant. Either is suitable for executing the mission: move the ball down the field and score points.
For the sake of thoroughness, I’ll stack them up against 2006 Michigan as well. Largely the same cast of characters but with fewer injuries. Reasonable or not, this level of production is what all Michigan fans desire or expect.
To evaluate the units I’m turning to very basic and universal categories.
Plays per Drive
This is a tempo-neutral possession metric. Evaluating Rich Rodriguez’s offense by time of possession is misleading since his philosophy is explicitly unconcerned with that metric. However, all offensive schemes seek to run as many plays as they can until they score. So, this metric also allows us to evaluate execution at a base level as well. Plays-per-drive allows us to compare different schemes to each other.
The calculation of average and standard deviation for this metric omits the highest (yellow) and lowest (red) game averages since yards per drive are highly correlated with the strength of the opposing defense. The presumption here is that one good or bad game is a fluke. Games against markedly inferior competition (blue) have been omitted regardless of game outcome. Ahem.
What we see here is that Michigan 2009 has in fact improved over 2008 in this particular metric both in average plays per drive as well as in the standard deviation of this metric. However, 2009 lags 2006 and 2007 a little in regards to average but matches the 2006 campaign in terms of consistency. The average part is not very surprising.
The benchmarks have significant advantages over 2009 in terms of personnel and experience. However, the consistency part is a bit of a surprise. This year’s team, freshmen QBs, botched snaps, and miscellaneous turnovers included is as consistent as the 2006 unit and more consistent than the 2007 unit. Anyone who has had to improve a process knows that you get rid of deviation first, and then you shift the mean. In this case, there is the good fortune of the mean shifting on its own via player maturity.
Yards per PlayThis is a category of raw production. This is more in line with offensive strategic objectives such as controlling field position, getting into scoring position, and so on. Again, the high, low, and inapplicable data points have been omitted from the calculations of average and standard deviation.
Through the games played so far, the 2009 offense has improved significantly over the 2008 team and matches the production of the 2007 team. It is also the most consistent offense captured.
Points per Drive
The bottom line. Is the offense pulling its weight in the “outscore your opponent” equation? Again, the high, low, and inapplicable data points have been omitted from the calculations of average and standard deviation.
Once again, through the games played so far, the 2009 offense has improved significantly over the 2008 team, which was consistently bad, and beats the production of the 2007 team in terms of drive average and consistency. 2009 lags 2006 in terms of average but again, 2006 is a stout benchmark.
The TakeawayDespite its glaring and soul dong punching deficiencies, the 2009 offense stacks up surprisingly well to arguably the best offensive unit Michigan has seen in approximately two decades, probably more like four, and maybe even six. DECADES(!). And significant low hanging fruit remains (turnovers).
Regardless, after games like last Saturday’s we are right to break out the compasses and maps and graphing calculators to reevaluate just where the heck are we, exactly?
Here's where we are:
- Tate Forcier is a FRESHMAN who has played in EIGHT games.
- The rest of the offense are de facto true sophomores who have only shown signs of effectiveness in about 14 games.
- The defense does not have the breadth or depth of personnel necessary to meet the Michigan standard.
Recognizing that we have a major vulnerability in defensive personnel is in no way a slight against the Lloyd Carr stewardship. It is simple root cause diagnosis. And, maybe RichRod can tweak a thing or two or three, here and there and over there. But, to suggest that the team has made no progress is simple ignorance at best and dubious ignorance at worst.
There is a big difference between excusing and explaining…that difference is responsibility. RichRod is responsible for his record, but its only fair to give him more time to hold him accountable as well. Forging the program into a consistent winner requires Rodriguez to demonstrate the full gamut of the requisite core competencies needed to be a successful chief executive in an elite college football program: excellent recruiting, excellent motivating, and excellent personnel evaluation(coaches and players), and excellent focus. If he succeeds, he will have vindicated Bill Martin decision and earned the respect of many. If he wins it all, he will be the next Bo Schembechler.
Godspeed, RichRod. Godspeed.
[Editorial take: I don't think things are quite as sunny as the numbers suggest; in the comments it's noted that adjustments were not made for outliers like turnovers and special teams items. Michigan's gotten great production out of Olesnavage and Stonum this year. Also, Michigan has yet to face the #65, #21, and #6 defenses so far this year and will likely see their to-date respectable metrics continue to dip below the okay production of the 2006 and 2007 teams. The 2006 team was pretty good but only 38th in total offense and 26th in scoring. It may have been arguably the best collection of talent at Michigan, but it wasn't exactly set free to roam the plains, its majestic rippling muscles trampling over mascots that dare oppose it. Michigan is approaching the mediocre numbers put up by Mike DeBord.
Even considering that the progress made from year one to year two is obvious.]
- Brandon Minor has practiced more this week than he has any other week in more than a month. Hopefully that means he'll be healthy enough on Saturday to play. The team needs the element of downhill running that he provides. Carlos Brown has been limited with tendinitis. Mike Shaw is practicing this week and should be ready to play, after missing last week with a sprained knee.
- Patrick Omameh has been playing at right guard, with Mark Huyge at right tackle. Perry Dorrestein has been limited with a back strain. The Big Ten made a statement to Rodriguez that Mark Ortmann will not be suspended for this week's game.
- Martavious Odoms practiced yesterday and will today in a limited fashion. He's still day-to-day, and they won't be sure until Saturday if Martavious can play.
- Kevin Leach is still starting at MLB. Obi Ezeh is still in the mix, and hasn't let his decreased playing time affect his desire to prepare for games.
- There's a goal to get more sacks, and more pressure will lead to more turnovers. 3 games without forcing a turnover is really bad. The defense will improve when guys feel comfortable in their roles, and can simply react instead of thinking. Despite that, there must be enough scheming that the offense doesn't know what they'll do every play. Players need to be confident enough to make plays, and not get too down on themselves if they miss one.
- In-season recruiting is tougher without a be week, because the coaches won't have an oportunity to travel to recruits' games, or they might risk missing a Saturday noon game. It's important to get an early start to recruiting (offering juniors, etc.), because it's tougher to recruit in-season, and because prospects are committing to schools earlier in the process.
- Brandon Graham is a leader of the team, but he doesn't more leading by example than with his voice. He'll get the guys cranked up before the game. A great example he sets is that when he makes a mistake, he doesn't let his disappointment linger into the next play.
- Yesterday's practice was physical and spirited. The team doesn't have any lingering hangover from the Illinois game. They can't do anything to change the result of that game, and it's time to move on.
- The team isn't "desperate," and Rodriguez doesn't like that term to describe a football team. He'd prefer them to be "hungry," but he wants that whether the team is winning or losing. They should always be hungry. The coaches haven't yet mentioned to the team that the next win is important for bowl eligibility. They'll say something about it, but it's more important to worry about how you're playing at a given time, not any other factors.
Video note: Unfortunately my computer rebooted itself after applying an "important update" last night, which obliterated a 14-hour process via which I convert the torrent into something clippable. So no video today. I will go back in an add it later, and I'll revisit the key points in a couple of Picture Pages posts.
Personnel notes: Leach replaced Ezeh until very late; Ezeh and Kenny Demens were part of the goal line package, though, with Leach apparently relegated to the bench because he's slight. The rest of it was as per usual, thought it seemed like the starting DL got more time than usual.
Michigan did continue its passing down substitution package, replacing Williams with JT Floyd.
Formation notes: This is what I'm calling "4-3 under split" based on an earlier Steve Sharik post:
Both outside linebackers are on the LOS with Leach a single middle linebacker. Michigan went to this frequently against 2TE formations.
And this is what I'm calling "nickel even":
It's not really a nickel package, with Brown on the slot receiver, but it functions more like a nickel package than a standard 4-3 as Michigan would play two deep behind it unless Williams rolled up into the box. Note the position of the DTs right on top of each other, with both guys playing 1-techs over the center. This was probably an adjustment to what Illinois runs more than anything else.
Possibly annoying terminology note: I tried to call Juice Williams "Juice" because if I call him Williams sometimes Williams does something to Williams and that gets confusing.
On with the show:
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O18||1||10||Ace 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Inside zone||Roh||0|
|Roh(+2) shoots inside the tackle at the snap into the intended hole, is held blatantly, and is basically tackled, but still manages to force the RB back behind the play and tackles with help from Mouton, who didn't have to do much other than clean up with Leshoure already going down by the time he arrives. (tackling +1)|
|O18||2||10||Shotgun 2-back Twins||4-3 under||Run||Triple option veer||Graham||27|
|Uncalled illegal formation as Illinois only has six on the line. It's hard to hand out minuses here because I'm not sure who's got which assignment. Graham crashes down on the dive fake and tackles it; Mouton hangs inside and gets blocked by a guy who should not have an angle on him. I definitely blame Mouton(-1) for sucking in; even if this was a dive he was going to get obliterated by the tackle for not knowing WTF was going on; Warren comes up to support on the pitch guy but with no one on Williams it's an easy big gain. I also blame Graham(-2), though, because this dive was stuffed anyway and if he had stayed out Illinois had nowhere to go. Good job by Leach to hop into the appropriate hole, FWIW.|
|O45||1||10||Shotgun trips||4-3 nickel even||Run||QB counter trap||Mouton||6|
|Both the backside T and G pull around as the rest of the line blocks down; Juice fakes a handoff to Leshoure that holds Graham outside. Roh(+1) actually does a good job of reading it and getting inside of the puling G, but Williams(-1) and Mouton(-1) run themselves into blocks passively; here the pulling OT has to route around the Roh-based disruption and he still gets a good block on Williams. Result: six yards.|
|M49||2||4||Shotgun 3-wide||4-3 under||Pass||Flare||--||14|
|Williams rolls up to the LOS and blitzes; no one gets out on the tailback rolling out of the backfield on a flare route and he's wide open(cover -2) for plenty of yards. I don't know if this is on anyone specifically; sometimes you have a blitz read that changes if you see the RB head out of the backfield like that, sometimes you don't. (RPS -1)|
|Busted play. Illinois wants to throw a long handoff to Benn but Benn runs a route. Juice improvises for a few yards; Leach did a decent job of reading it and coming to tackle.|
|M31||2||6||Shotgun 2TE||4-4 under||Pass||Long handoff||Warren||12|
|Warren(-1) playing in the parking lot and giving this to Illinois (RPS -1, cover -1). He then misses a tackle(-1), adding several yards.|
|M19||1||10||Shotgun 3-wide||4-3 nickel even||Pass||Long handoff||Warren||4|
|Man, Warren keeps bailing into three deep at the snap here and Illinois is looking for it; they get it again here but Warren and Williams do manage to hold it down to four yards. A small victory.|
|M15||2||6||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Speed option||Williams||5|
|Benn goes in motion and Kovacs immediately signals for Williams to attack the LOS. Looks like Michigan has this scouted and expects Illinois to run a speed option to the now-overloaded short side. They do. Williams(-1) gets crushed by the TE and driven back; Warren is bailing out into cover-three and can't help on the edge.|
|M10||3||1||Shotgun 2-back 2TE||4-4 under||Run||Zone stretch(?)||Brown||4|
|Illinois confuses Michigan by shooting one RB past Juice and using the other one as a lead blocker for him; Brown(-1) ends up sitting back the whole play, sucking inside when Williams does his draw fake and giving up the corner for the RB instead of following his assignment and getting out on the edge to hold this down. He was not blocked at all and could have crushed this since Graham absorbed a double team and no one was out on him.|
|M6||1||G||Ace Twins||4-3 under split||Run||Inside zone||Leach||1|
|Think this is just Michigan beating the Illinois playcall with this split formation. Playside TE is taken upfield by OLB Mouton; DE Roh slants inside, taking the tackle with him, and Leach(+1) reads the direction of the play, shooting into the hole to tackle with help from Williams. (RPS +1)|
|M5||2||G||Shotgun 3-wide||4-3 nickel even||Run||QB zone stretch||Leach||2|
|Roh(-0.5) is flowing down the line okay when he trips and hits the ground, opening up some space. Leach(+1) reads the direction of the play, flows outside too quickly for a guard getting a free release to get an angle on him, takes on the lead block from the RB, sheds, it, and tackles(+1). Very good play from him.|
|M3||3||G||Power I||???||Run||Power off tackle||Williams||3|
|2TE, I-form, Benn lined up next to the fullback. You tell me what to call this. [Update: it's the power I.] Illinois runs a version of a power o; Williams(-1) is blitzing and gets in unmolested but goes inside of the fullback and fails to string the play out enough because Mouton got slightly chopped by a linebacker. Mouton keeps his feet but is off balance and in no shape to hold up to the RB's lead block. Warren makes a valiant effort to get out on the edge; Benn leaps over him for a score.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 9 min 1st Q.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O19||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 nickel even||Run||Speed option keeper||Roh||2|
|Roh(+1) gets into the DE, refuses to get sealed, and strings this out to the sideline, cutting off the room and forcing Juice OOB basically by himself. Leach had also flowed down the LOS and was there to assist on the escort.|
|O21||2||8||I-Form Twins||4-3 under||Run||Pitch sweep||Mouton||6|
|Ford, the FB, motions out; Warren is in zone and follows. Play is a pitch sweep with pulling linemen on which Graham(+1) shoots into the backfield, taking out a pulling guard and absorbing two blockers. This leaves Mouton(-1) totally unblocked; he overruns the play and is fortunate to grab the RB as he passes; this could have been two yards and was six because of Mouton.|
|O27||3||2||Shotgun 3-wide||4-3 nickel split||Run||Zone read stretch||Van Bergen||-1|
|Backside of the line just doesn't get blocked as Martin(+0.5) and Graham(+0.5) slice up, but the key is RVB(+1) coming upfield of an attempted double despite another blatant hold and getting in the running lane, forcing a cutback into doom. I don't know if this was a technically sound play by RVB, who ended up attempting to shove his back into the RB, but it worked. James notes that Williams is totally irresponsible on the read here, and this will bite Michigan later.|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 2 min 2nd Q. Michigan muffs the punt.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|M41||1||10||Shotgun trips||4-3 nickel even||Run||QB counter trap||Williams||14|
|Same play as earlier, with the backside tackle and guard pulling around to the backside as the RB makes a fake out to the edge. Juice keeps it, following his lead blockers. Roh heads inside, drawing a blocker; Mouton(-1) also dives inside even though any tailback handoff is something he's not going to be able to get to; he's run himself out of the play despite a bleeding obvious double pull from the OL. This leaves Williams(-1) on the edge with an OL. He compounds matters by losing leverage and letting Juice outside of him. Even if Mouton had played this correctly, it wouldn't have helped. Juice breaks outside for good yardage.|
|M27||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 nickel even||Pass||PA seam||Williams||Inc|
|Play action gets Michigan sucking up, with Williams(-1) reduced to an ineffectual chuck on Benn as he realizes he's not about to get blocked into next week but is instead going to give up a wide open route(cover -1). Juice turfs it. Mouton(+0.5) did a pretty good job of avoiding the RB's block to get some pressure.|
|M27||2||10||I-Form||4-4 under||Run||Speed option||Warren||6|
|Michigan drops back into a two-deep look as Benn comes across the formation with Warren dropping into a second deep safety slot; Illinois runs at the vacated area. Graham forces a pitch; FB crushes Williams(-0.5) back; he has no chance to do anything once he guy locks on. Warren(-0.5) reacts late and can only undercut the RB as he nears five yards; he cartwheels forward for more. (RPS -1)|
|M21||3||4||Shotgun 2TE Twins||4-3 under split||Pass||Hitch||Brown||Inc|
|RB motions out and Leach goes with him in man. Michigan sends six, with Brown(+1) coming unblocked to hit Williams as he throws (pressure +1), which might be the reason this hitch is thrown wide of the receiver. Might be just Juice, too. (RPS +1)|
|Drive Notes: Missed FG(38), 1 min 1st Q.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O10||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under split||Run||Zone veer handoff||Mouton||-3|
|If this is a read, Juice made the wrong one, because he hands off to the back when Mouton(+2, tackling +1) is coming up on him hard and it seems like an up-the-middle keeper is called for. This is impressive change of direction and tackling from Mouton.|
|O7||2||13||Shotgun 2-back||4-3 under||Run||Triple option dive||Brown||8|
|This isn't so much a dive as an off tackle but eh that's life. Brown(-2) ends up totally unblocked in the hole as he crashes down from the slot receiver but whiffs a tackle(-1), turning zero yards into eight. Leach cleans up; I'm impressed Leach read the play well enough to get over to tackle. He's played well so far.|
|O15||3||5||Shotgun 3-wide||4-3 nickel even||Pass||Sack||Martin||-9|
|DTs twist and Michigan blitzes two linebackers, causing Martin(+2) to slant into the backfield past the center and the guard, who have other problems, as the Michigan blitz causes Illinois to bust a pickup. (RPS +1) Martin gets there first and forces Juice to pull the ball down; RVB(+1) follows it up to crush Williams for a big loss. (Pressure +2)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 11 min 2nd Q.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O27||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Zone read keeper||Mouton||5 (Pen -10)|
|Given future events this is scary: Illinois runs a read intended to shoot the right between the backside tackle and DT and should have a huge gainer, but Juice keeps it. I mean, really, if this is a handoff it could be a 70 yard touchdown. Juice keeps it and fakes a bubble, which is also there since Mouton(-1) has failed to cover either the handoff or the bubble or the keeper, and Williams picks up five before the other Williams tackles him. Holding brings it back.|
|O17||1||20||I-Form||4-4 under||Run||Speed option||Williams||3|
|Usual course of events: Illinois doesn't block Graham and forces him to force a pitch; this time Williams(+1) gets to the outside shoulder of his blocker and drives him upfield, forcing the pitch man to the sidelines and making this a minimal gain. (RPS +1) Good blitz call.|
|O20||2||17||I-Form||4-4 under||Run||Inside zone||Roh||-1|
|Roh(+1) on a slant, he steps inside of the guard(!) and gets upfield into the path of the run, forcing the play to the backside. He gets a hand on the RB's thigh, slowing him and allowing Williams to finish with an easy tackle. (RPS +1)|
|O19||3||18||Shotgun 2TE Twins||Nickel||Pass||Sack||Graham||-9|
|Williams pulled for Floyd; M drops seven guys off into deep coverage but it doesn't matter much because Graham(+3) murders the freshman RT and crushes Williams almost before he can set up in the pocket (pressure +2)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 10-7, 5 min 2nd Q.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O29||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Zone read keeper||Graham||1|
|Graham(+1) stays home, drifting slightly inside. Juice pulls it out and Graham gets out on him as he passes, grabbing Juice from behind and tackling with help from Williams (+0.5), who makes the easy fill given Graham's presence all over Juice's back.|
|O30||2||9||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Speed option||Williams||3|
|Williams(+1) reacts quickly and fills to the short side of the field. Unblocked, he tackles(+1) for a minimal gain.|
|O33||3||6||Shotgun 3-wide||4-3 under||Pass||Sack||Leach||-9|
|First read is a hitch that Roh(+1, cover +1) has dropped out on and covers; Juice probably has a slant against Woolfolk but can't find it before Leach(+2), who's looped around on a delayed blitz, gets in on Williams and forces him to take evasive action. Leach comes in under control and reads Juice's planned scramble, securing a solid tackle against a guy considerably more athletic than him. Very nice play; I've seen so many guys overrun this. (Pressure +1, RPS +1)|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 13-7, 30 sec 2nd Q. Rodriguez doesn't call timeout with a minute left in the half. They go after the punt, but don't get it.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O1||1||10||Ace||4-3 under||Run||QB sneak||--||2|
|O3||2||8||Ace Twins||4-3 under||Run||Zone stretch||Roh||5|
|Frontside jammed up by Graham(+0.5) and Martin(+0.5), forcing a cutback into Roh(+1), who has zipped into the backfield. Ford ends up carrying Roh, though—he used power—a couple yards downfield, at which point Williams(-1) lays a wicked hit on... Roh. Leshore gets another three yards out of it. (Tackling -1)|
|O8||3||3||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Speed option||--||4|
|Illinois motions Benn to the short side of the field for a trips look and run their speed option. Michigan is slanting away from it, which means Graham sucks in and is blocked by the line as Mouton shoots upfield unblocked; Juice pitches outside, where there is no support. Would rather see Michigan force Juice to take the ball here, but that's not how they've been playing it. (RPS -1) Williams does come up through blockers to lay a pop on the RB as he reaches the sticks, but the RB wins that battle and gets the yard he needs.|
|O12||1||10||Shotgun 2TE||4-3 under||Run||Draw?||Brown||1|
|Illinois OL sets up to pass block, sliding the line one way and then handing the ball off the other way. Handoff is awkward and almost fumbled but I don't think it would matter because Michigan's slant + RVB stunt leaves no holes and gets three guys in unblocked on the tailback. He goes nowhere. (RPS +1) I guess Brown (+0.5) for keeping contain.|
|O13||2||9||Shotgun 2TE||4-4 under||Pass||Hitch||Mouton||17|
|Same setup as the previous play except Juice keeps it. TE Cumberland runs a good hitch route but Juice is a little late and Mouton has a shot at making a play here; he fails(-1), diving over the top without getting the ball and giving this guy another 7 YAC. (Tackling -1)|
|O30||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||Nickel under||Run||Zone read dive||Leach||70|
|I don't know who's issue this is. Michigan is in a pure two-deep with Mouton rolled up the LOS and Brown over one of the slot guys, with Leach the only real MLB aligned like that. On the snap, Michigan's DL slides a bit and Roh gets kicked out by single blocking, opening up a hole here. Roh's not really defending Juice or the dive, so he gets a -1. Then: Mouton backs out and appears to be spying on Juice on a potential keeper, and Williams is sucking up as Benn runs a bubble route. Reasonable. However, Leach(-3) runs himself way out of the play in anticipation of a stretch that Illinois doesn't really run much; they run this all the time. He then compounds the error by not freaking out and running back downfield away from a releasing C; he gets blocked out of the play. Kovacs(-2) is dropping into a deep zone and does not come up soon enough to get an angle to slow the RB down, and he runs for a long way. Oh, and hell, Mouton(-2) had no idea who had the ball way too long and failed to close down either Juice or the RB.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown,13-14, 9 min 3rd Q.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O21||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Triple option dive||Williams||27|
|Ugh, ugh, ugh. Illinois motions a guy into the backfield for a two-back look and Williams is keying on this so he flies to the LOS. Illinois runs a triple option look off of it; Williams(-2) blitzes into the backfield and has this dive dead to rights, but comes in way too hard and gets back-juked. Freakin' disaster. Opposite of what Leach did earlier. Guy now has a huge cutback lane since the linebackers are to the playside and Roh(-1) got his ass kicked and let himself get shoved out of the hole. Probably wouldn't have mattered much but might have held it down if Roh could provide some delay here. (Tackling -2)|
|O48||1||10||Shotgun 2TE||4-4 under||Pass||TE Wheel||--||34|
|Michigan in a two-deep zone that Williams cannot get out onto his guy on because he's picked by Benn and rode down the field. Probably should be offensive PI but they never call that. Can't really blame Williams here; he can't run through a dude. Result is an open bomb that Michigan can't do anything about. Pocket was great for Juice, too. (Pressure -1, cover -2, RPS -1)|
|M18||1||10||Shotgun 2TE Twins||4-3 under||Run||Zone read keeper||Brown||2|
|Michigan slants so hard that the backside TE and OT have no one to block and can just roll downfield. Herron crashes down on the RB, causing Juice to pull it. Mouton(+1) came up to the line, read the RB's path, and hopped playside of the C's attempted block, which lets him flow down the line past the guys who released downfield, and Brown is unblocked coming in from the edge. This makes the bubble pretty open but it works. Brown(+1) sets up and makes a good open field tackle(+1).|
|M16||2||8||Shotgun 2-back||3-4 nickel||Pass||Wheel||Brown||Inc (Pen + 14)|
|Brown(-2) is decent position on this play but never turns around to look for the ball and ends up pushing this receiver before the ball gets there because it's underthrown. I hate these calls, which reward the offense for being inept more than anything else. Pressure was coming, possibly resulting in a marginal throw. I keep watching this and I hate this call so much. It's ridiculous. Guy is in position and trying to make a play and should have a right to his momentum; instead he gets a call.|
|M2||1||G||Power I||Goal line||Pass||Waggle flat||Ezeh||2|
|All eleven players freak out assuming it'll be the same Benn sweep, leaving both TEs wide, wide open. Ezeh(-1) and Mouton(-1) and cover -2.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown, 13-21, 5 min 3rd Q. aaaargh|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|M45||1||10||Ace 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Inside zone||Sagesse||5|
|Blocking the backside DE here and shoving Sagesse(-1) way down the line opens up a hole that Mouton can't fill fast enough despite reading the play quickly and getting to the ball as fast as you can reasonably expect. Hole too big and Sagesse moving too far out of it in anticipation of a stretch.|
|M40||2||5||Shotgun 2-back Twins||4-3 under||Run||Triple option dive||Banks?||7|
|This really should go nowhere as the two backup DTs get some push and Brown gets past the slot receiver to sit unblocked in the hole. But Sagesse bulling his way into the back of the LT doesn't prevent the LG from getting out on Leach and when the RB tries to cut back into the mess that is the four guys in the middle of the line he somehow squirts through for first-down yardage. I'm not sure who, if anyone, is to blame here other than bloody-minded fate. I'm going to -0.5 Banks for getting kicked out of the hole eventually, I think.|
|M33||1||10||Shotgun 2TE Twins||4-3 under split||Pass||Sack||Brown||-8|
|OLBs flanking the LOS here on this two TE package and both are sent on a blitz. RB has the pickup on Brown(+2), who sets up inside then bursts upfield of his blocker, sacking Juice when he tries to move up in the pocket only to hit his own RB. Graham(+1) was driving the RG back into the pocket, creating the restricted space in which Juice had few scrambling options. (Pressure +2)|
|M41||2||18||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Pass||Fade||Woolfolk||37|
|Of course. Michigan sends four with Herron backing out into a short zone and Graham(+1) immediately crushes the guard attempting to block him, hitting Juice as he throws what's basically and arm-punt, Juice Williams gets nailed as he throws. Juice Williams. His throw? Perfect. Woolfolk(-1) was beat deep in man press (cover -1), but not that badly and the receiver made a spectacular catch. I mean... Christ.|
|M4||1||G||Ace Twins||4-3 under split||Run||Inside zone||Martin||1|
|Martin(+1) back in; he drives playside of his blocker and forces a cutback into Herron(+0.5), who is one-on-one in some space with the TB and holds him to basically no YAC. Maybe one before the cavalry arrives.|
|M3||2||G||Shotgun 2-back TE||4-3 under split||Pass||Zone read keeper||Williams||3|
|Williams(-2), the contain guy, completely overruns the play and Juice takes it in for an easy touchdown.|
|Drive Notes: Touchdown,13-28, 1 min 3rd Q. Here's to you, worst third quarter ever.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O21||1||10||Shotgun trips||4-3 nickel even||Run||Veer handoff||Martin||-6|
|Play Illinois has run earlier with a veer outside look paired with the backside guard and tackle pulling around. This time Juice hands it off... for some reason. This doesn't seem like it can be a real read because it just doesn't block two guys on the frontside of this play, and Martin(+1) and Graham proceed to crush this guy in the backfield. No idea how this handoff ever works.|
|O15||2||16||I-Form||4-3 under||Run||Pitch sweep||Mouton||4|
|FB motions out for three-wide look and Illinois runs a down G scheme with a pitchout, pulling the playside G around as the down-block Graham. Mouton(+1) gets outside of the pulling guard and upfield, forcing the play back inside to Leach, who tackles(+1) a couple yards downfield with help from Williams. Graham also did a good job of flowing down the line and preventing the other pulling OL from getting out on Leach.|
|O19||3||12||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under split||Run||QB draw||Graham||26|
|Oh, right. This. This looks like a scramble at first blush but there are linemen releasing downfield, it's a called run. Graham(-1) comes too hard inside and vacates a passing lane. Martin(-1) is doubled and blasted way out of the center of the field; Leach(-1) ends up way overrunning Juice's cutback lane, and the safeties are nowhere to be found. (RPS -1)|
|O47||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Zone read dive||Leach||5|
|Martin(+1) and Graham do a good job of cutting off any potential frontside holes and there's nowhere to go there; there's a cutback from the RB into unblocked linebackers since Martin absorbed a double. Leach(-1) does not read it quickly and ends up taking a hit from the RB two yards downfield, getting bowled over for another 3 YAC. Should have/could have reacted more quickly to hold this down.|
|M48||2||5||Shotgun 2TE Twins||4-3 under split||Run||Zone read dive||Kovacs||22|
|Same play. Michigan is stunting, which ends up seeing RVB run outside and out of the play, opening up a crease. This time Leach(-1), who can't win, has delayed waiting for a cutback to the Martin/Graham side and gets sucked into a mess. Herron(-1) could not hold the POA on his stunt and gets blown back, which doesn't help matters. Kovacs(-1) then misses a tackle(-1) and turns this from a first down into lots of yards.|
|M26||1||10||Shotgun 2TE Twins||3-4 Base||Run||Zone read keeper||Williams||23|
|is this on Williams or Mouton? Williams blitzes off the snap and can be thought of as a crashing backside DE. Is Michigan supposed to scrape here, then? That would make sense to contain this, as Williams has the dive dead to rights and Mouton could scrape out to contain Juice. I don't know which it is. I originally gave Williams minus two billion because I'm just fed up with him, but I think this might be on Mouton, who lord knows has had some serious mental issues this year. One of these two guys gets a negative two billion. I tentatively assign them to Williams.|
|M3||1||G||Power I||Goal line||Run||Speed option||Ezeh||1|
|Brown pops up on the QB, forcing a pitch, and Ezeh(+1) manages to get outside the lead blocks from the FB and TE to force the play back inside where Demens and Graham are; RB falls, possibly because of Graham, for no gain.|
|M2||2||G||Power I||Goal line||Run||Iso||Martin||-4|
|Absolutely nowhere to go as Martin(+1) wins the battle with his guy and Graham dives forward, creating an impenetrable pile of bodies. Campbell(+1) cuts through a block on the backside and grabs the RB's foot, causing him to fumble. (For a loose definition of "caused".) Illinois gets it back, though a few yards short of the LOS.|
|M6||3||G||Shotgun 2TE offset||Goal line||Pass||PA TE corner||Williams||Inc|
|Unbalanced formation with both Ts on the same side of the line; this is an attempt to fool Michigan into leaving the RT—actually a TE—uncovered. That doesn't quite work but Williams(-1) gets beat by Cumberland and Juice can hit him for a TD; it glances off his fingertips. Brown was applying pressure on the corner. Bonus: Cumberland was covered up on the LOS and that went uncalled. Woo Big Ten refs.|
|Drive Notes: FG(23), 13-31, 9 min 3rd Q.|
|Ln||Dn||Ds||O Form||D Form||Type||Play||Player||Yards|
|O11||1||10||Ace||4-3 under||Run||Inside zone||Watson||8|
|For some reason, Steve Watson is in at deathbacker. Watson(-1) falls to the ground as Michigan flows down the line against the zone blocking, opening up a cutback lane the RB hits. Ezeh's in and gets blocked; Williams(-1) basically whiffs a tackle but the RB falls as he cuts behind it.|
|O19||2||2||Shotgun 2-back Twins||4-3 under||Run||Busted play||--||-2|
|Juice fumbles the snap.|
|O17||3||4||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Speed option||Watson||6|
|There is no one on the edge as Watson(-1) drops off into a zone, weirdly, and Mouton gets caught up in the wash of the WR blocking the hell out of Watson. Juice has an easy time moving up for the first down. (RPS –1)|
|O23||1||10||Shotgun 2TE Twins||4-3 under||Run||Zone read keeper||Watson||1|
|WOOO THE DRIVE OF WATSON. Here Watson(+2) does a great job as the unblocked DE, convincing Juice to keep the ball by coming down a little bit on the RB, then hopping out to contain him. Forced back inside, Juice is tackled by Watson from behind.|
|O24||2||9||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 under||Run||Zone veer keeper||Ezeh||11|
|Here's why Ezeh's lost his job. Michigan slants and shifts Ezeh right over the hole where this Illinois veer play goes if Juice keeps the ball. Mouton has shot upfield to erase the potential handoff, leaving Ezeh(-2) alone in the hole with one assignment: Williams. Ezeh, of course, decides to run out and try to tackle the tailback. Who Mouton has owned. And doesn't have the ball.|
|O35||1||10||Shotgun 4-wide||4-3 nickel even||Run||Inside zone||Mouton||3|
|Good by the DTs to hold the POA and Mouton(+1) attacks quickly, swallowing the RB in the backfield when he hesitates.|
|O38||2||7||Shotgun 2TE||3-4 Base||Pass||Long handoff||--||Inc|
|Behind the receiver and incomplete.|
|O38||3||7||Shotgun 3-wide||4-3 under||Pass||Cross||Brown||5|
|Dumpoff short of the sticks.|
|Drive Notes: Punt, 13-31, 4 min 4th Q. Charting stops. I would have stopped it already if I had known Watson was in. Graham(+3) blocks the punt.|
What's this coming out of my eyes?
It looks like ichor of some variety.
Gross. Are you sure it's not blood?
I didn't think tentacled Cthulu-beasts had blood.
I thought I was Boubacar Cissoko.
Fine: tiny tentacled Cthulu-beasts with poor ability to model the future.
I think a chart might focus the pain emanating from my eyesockets into one white-hot point. I heard people undergoing torture do stuff like that Chart?
|Graham||11||3||8||Not quite up to the usual standard as I think he got suckered on a couple of runs, but still pretty good.|
|Heininger||-||-||-||Didn't record anything.|
|Watson||2||2||0||Replacing Patterson because he got on the field late.|
|Roh||7||2.5||4.5||Effective slanting all day; not great in pass rush yet.|
|Martin||7||1||6||No frontside creases all day; too bad about the linebackers.|
|Van Bergen||2||-||2||Not a major factor.|
|Campbell||1||-||1||Good play on the goal line.|
|TOTAL||31.5||11||20.5||Same total number as against Penn State, weirdly.|
|Ezeh||1||3||-2||Managed to do this on like five plays.|
|Mouton||5.5||9||-3.5||The usual at this point. Excellent athlete, many mental mistakes.|
|Leach||4||6||-2||Better than Ezeh, and did okay, with half of his minuses coming on the big play.|
|TOTAL||14||23||-9||Also the exact same total as against Penn State.|
|Woolfolk||-||1||-1||The one bomb, otherwise not tested.|
|Williams||2.5||14.5||-12||DELICATELY PHRASED STATEMENT.|
|Kovacs||-||3||-3||Again burned as a deep half safety.|
|Tackling||5||7||-2||First negative tackling day.|
|RPS||8||7||1||Scheme seemed fine.|
[A reminder: RPS is "rock, paper, scissors." Michigan gets a + when they call a play that makes it very easy for them to defend the opponent, like getting a free blitzer. They get a – when they call a play that makes it very difficult for them to defend the opponent, like showing a seven-man blitz and having Penn State get easy touchdowns twice.]
That appears to be a huge negative number next to Mike Williams's name.
Yeah. First a disclaimer: it is possible some of those minuses should migrate over to other folks on the defense because Williams wasn't actually the guy who was supposed to have contain as Michigan was running a scrape exchange. I watched the plays a lot, though, and think there's only one instance where that is a serious possibility. On the others it seemed obvious that Williams was irresponsible.
This is not a surprise. Williams was –6 against Iowa and –4 against Penn State, and the Penn State numbers were generous. It was evident Michigan was trying to use him to defend the long handoffs, which he could not do for whatever reason. Against Illinois he had a huge problems.
So… yeah. He's the reason—or at least, the emblem of the reason—Misopogon spent the last week of his life composing a master's thesis about Michigan's defensive recruiting and retention relative to its rivals. He's a weak link, probably the weakest, and Michigan has no alternative the rest of this year. Next year they'll have to hope he gets better or that one of the freshmen passes him. I can't see him getting any better after the last three games.
In an SAT analogy:
2009 Michigan Football : Mike Williams :: _______ : ________
A. 2008 Michigan Football : Nick Sheridan
B. Notre Dame Football : South Bend, Indiana
C. MAC Football Programs : Former Lloyd Carr Assistants
D. Life : Entropy
E. All Of The Above
Next year Williams will either be much better or on the bench.
Aren't those sorts of errors on plays Michigan practices against every damn day?
Uh… yeah. I do think it's a bad sign that Williams is making really basic errors that no one should make. "Hey, you have QB contain" is not a thing that should be dependent on which coordinator you're playing for. "Do not let the QB outside of you." Not hard. Apparently, Robinson has taken over coaching the safeties. Eventually he'll be the everything-except-DL coach.
So how was Kevin Leach?
He was okay. There were a lot of plays I thought he did well on that did not rise to the level of a + given the standards I've set for them over the past few years, and the mistakes he made were less mindboggling than the ones Ezeh did in his brief time on the field. Ezeh's main contributions were leaving an Illinois TE vastly wide open on first and goal and running out of a hole that Juice was in when he had the ball. It looked like he though Juice was the Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog.
Er. Check that.
Leach did not remind me of any scenes from Monty Python. He didn't do anything that made me want to hit my head against a wall. There was the one big error on the 70-yard touchdown where he sucked out of position because he was keying on the OL instead of the backfield, but that error was shared by at least four other people.
After a game of Leach I do think he's better than Ezeh, which is a mindboggling statement in a thousand different ways. Redshirt sophomore walk-on > scholarship third-year starting linebacker (and Butkis semifinalist!). Is that a failure to develop talent or just an indictment of Carr's ability to recruit the right sorts of guys late in his career? I hate 'em both.
Should we be grumbling about Robinson? If not, who should we be grumbling about?
I can't imagine the defensive coordinator who can mash these parts together and come up with something good. I have been saying this since the start of the year, though: the linebacker play has been consistently terrible despite experienced players returning and at least some continuity at coaching the position. Maybe it's just that Michigan picked up a bunch of duds, but Mouton's stunning regression is a black mark from any angle.
Other than that, read the masters thesis. We dead, and we aren't going to be in a position to be good next year. Better? If not, heads will start rolling in earnest. Good? No.
Graham and Martin both played very well.
See SAT analogy above.
Also, Jordan Kovacs was much better in the quasi-LB role than he is as a deep safety. This is not really his fault.
What does it mean for Purdue and the future?
Oh, hell. It seems likely that one of these days Michigan is going to have a game in which they do not have huge screwups that yield long touchdowns for the opposition and everyone moaning about it is going to have to take a step back, but that day seems likely to come in 2010 at the earliest. The safeties are just totally inadequate, the linebackers remain subpar even after the Ezeh-Leach switch, and the DL is making a valiant effort only to see huge cutback runs and ridiculous lost contain submarine all their efforts.
As for Purdue, they picked up 140 yards last week, so there's a chance if we catch them on one of their bad Boiler days, but this is an offense designed to tear up the middle of the field with short passes and Michigan is uniquely positioned to not stop this sort of offense. The defense will remain terrible until 2010.
Welcome to the Fold, Carvin Johnson
Sure to be the subject of many "Calvin Johnson with a Korean accent" jokes over the next 4+ years, LA S Carvin Johnson became the 20th member of Michigan's 2010 recruiting class last night. The full googlestalk of the under-the-radar prospect can be seen in the Hello: Carvin Johnson post, but there's still a little more info out there to be had, namely an article from nola.com. Relevant bits quoted below:
Johnson said also spoke Tuesday night to both Wolverines running backs coach Fred Jackson, who had recruited him since Michigan extended its official offer during August two-a-day practices. Johnson said reached his decision in consultation with his mother Kim.
That's a slight inconsistency with other stories, which said he was offered in May. Continuing along:
"First of all," Roth said, "everybody who knows Carvin or who has been around him knows that he’s as good of a person as he is a football player. That’s a compliment to him and his momma. Football-wise, he’s a ballhawk. He’s always around the football making plays."
Johnson, 6-foot-1, 195 pounds, with 4.7 speed in the 40, projects as a safety at Michigan. He is fully qualified academically with both the necessary core curriculum grade-point-average and test score, Roth said.
So, not only a (hopefully) good football player, but also a good student. Welcome, Carvin, may you be the first of many DB commits in November.
BONUS: A Lousiana high school coach emailed MGoBlog to suggest that just because Johnson is virtually unknown to the recruiting sites doesn't mean that he's not a player:
With regards to your posts on Carvin Johnson, I can tell you that you are wrong on your assessment.
As a veteran Louisiana high school football coach at several highly successful programs, I have had players go on and play all over the country and on to the pros. I have also had kids play for RRod at Tulane, Clemson and WVU. RRod knows the type of football we play here in LA and picks and chooses which schools he recruits. … RRod knows this state and which schools produce college-ready players.
Carvin Johnson is not even one of my players – but I have played against his Rummel team and know Jay Roth and his program well. Carvin Johnson can play. Here in LA, we do not send kids to camps to get hyped up. We know our kids can play. If a LA kid is going to combines, it is very much more than likely due to (a) his high school coach trying to get exposure for himself or (b) because his program isn’t any good, but he plays well. Trust me, this is how it is.
You are getting a solid player – big, physical, coached up, football smart.
Just my nickel’s worth of commentary because that kid can play. I saw him 1st hand from my own sideline earlier this season when his team eked out a victory against us. Carvin can play and Jay is a good coach.
So there you go: evidence that Johnson is a sleeper in a good way.
Reverse Manifest Destiny
Last week, mgoblog's own TomVH reported that CA S Tony Jefferson would visit MIchigan for the Purdue game. WTKA's Ira Weintraub e-mailed to let us know that the date has changed, and now Jefferson will be in town for the contest against the Buckeyes. Greg Biggins of ESPN confirms that he will now visit the weeekend of the 21st.
Also in town from the left coast will be CA WR Kenny Stills. He also says:
"I talk all the time with [CA RB] Brennan Clay, Tony Jefferson, [CA CB] Joshua Shaw, [CA DE] Ronald Powell, a few others," Stills said. "There's a good chance a lot of us could be at the same school next year and that would be great.
Stills, Shaw, and Jefferson, plz. I believe Josh Shaw will complete that trifecta by also visiting for the OSU game. He has said he wants to take a Michigan visit, and that would be the perfect time to get him on campus.
In which I emulate Sherlock Holmes to an unnecessary degree
Remember back when GA DT Michael Thornton said he might take an official visit to Michigan at some point? TomVH confirms, via Twitter, that this will indeed happen. Considering that he's the only Georgia DT that Michigan is still heavily recruiting, we can assume this Scout header is about him, no?:
Georgia LB to Visit Michigan
GBW's Eugene Hankerson talked to the player - who plans to visit with his DT-Teammate.
Using a little detective work, we discover that there are three prospects in the Rivals database who are linebackers from Stephenson High School: Jabari Johnson, Franchot West, and Tyrone Cornelius.
Johnson doesn't have a picture available on his Scout profile, so he's out (otherwise the header photo for the article would be his profile picture). That leaves West and Cornelius. Let us compare the photographic evidence:
Cornelius, Mystery Man, and West
The mgo-photo analysis provides indisputable evidence: It's Mr. Cornelius, with the official visit, in the Big House.
I got way too much enjoyment out of this. Cornelius had been thinking about a Michigan visit for a while, FWIW.
FL LB Christian Jones is apparently still considering Michigan ($, info in header). I've re-added him to the board, since it seems like a lot of recruits are trying to stay as far as possible away from Florida State. Still, even getting him on campus would be a minor recruiting coup.
Part of the reason VA LB Aramide Olaniyan's is on the open market is that Duke was supposed to suck this year, and they did nothing to change those predictions in week one, falling at home to 1-AA Richmond. However, the Blue Devils have since rebounded, and now control their destiny in the ACC Coastal. Olaniyan is back to considering the Blue Devils, although Michigan still remains near the top of his list.
It was apparent that he wasn't headed to Michigan for a while, but now we know where FL RB Eduardo Clements will play his college ball: Miami (YTM).
FL CB Ricardo Allen committed to Purdue.
2011 OH DE Steve Miller has committed to Ohio State, which is sad, but not unexpected. I at least thought he'd give Michigan an unofficial visit or two.
Speaking of 2011, it's been a while since we've had an update on junior prospects. Athlete Vault has released an initial top 100 and relevant prospects at this time are:
#2 FL DT Timmy Jernigan (Michigan offer, but probably a Florida lock)
#3 AZ OT Christian Westerman (Michigan offer)
#10 GA TE Jay Rome (Michigan offer)
#12 MI LB Lawrence Thomas (Michigan offer, favors MSU)
#15 OH QB Braxton Miller (Michigan offer, favors OSU)
#27 FL S Hasean Clinton-Dix (Michigan interest, Dr. Phillips)
#35 FL WR/TE Kelvin Benjamin (Michigan interest)
#50 NC QB Christian LeMay (Michigan offer and camper, probably a lock to Florida)
#52 OH LB Trey DePriest (Michigan offer)
#54 DE Jalen Grimble (Michigan offer, added to the board)
#84 TX S Sheroid Evans (Stonum, Herron, Woolfolk HS)
#91 OH DE Chris Rock (Michigan interest)
#100 FL RB Demetrius Hart (Michigan lock)
Several other guys on the list will probably be of interest by the time 2011 recruiting truly ramps up.
For his part, Sheroid Evans would like to run track and major in engineering in college. Somebody get this kid on the phone with Troy Woolfolk and Patrick Omameh, stat.
Lawrence Thomas, on the other hand, is the subject of a ridiculously-misleading ESPN headline: "Mich. LB favors another Big Ten school" is a phrase which here means "Penn State is a school he is considering." The article itself even explicitly says he has no favorites.
SoFlaFootball also has its top 50 for 2011.
People close to MN OL Seantrel Henderson's recruitment are "beginning to think" he'll probably end up at Southern Cal. Uh, no, they've pretty much thought that all along. Notre Dame homers, on the other hand, think it's a 2-horse race between them and Ohio State. MI RB Jeremy Langford visited Michigan recently ($, info in header), I'd be surprised if an offer comes through. Michigan is pursuing post-grad VA DE David Mackall, currently a Maryland commit ($, info in header). I've added him to the board. SC CB John Fulton is selected to the Shrine Bowl. PA CB Cullen Christian no longer a lock? Say it ain't so! Is FL WR Kenny Shaw still interested in Michigan? A possible official visit would seem to imply so.
|Last week's ballot|
Why yes, that does indeed look very similar to the first draft
Only one big change from the draft ballot. As someone mentioned in the comments, Texas's resume looks better than Alabama's now that all of Alabama's opponents have waned in recent weeks (OMG the SEC is just too strong to have any good teams other than the top two). That pushes the Longhorns to the top of the poll.
The other major quibble people had in the comments was where to rank Boise and Oregon in relation to each other. A lot of people said "Head to head, Boise must be first," and the counter-argument is "You can't rank teams based on one game." I clearly fall into the latter camp, as you can see by the ballot to your left.
Despite Boise head-to-head victory, and even their better overall record, I am of the opinion that the Ducks have put together a better overall resume to this point. Ironically, many of those pushing for Boise State to be moved past Oregon were saying things like
"In those cases, you have other data points,"
which, dude, that's an argument against your position, not for it. The two teams' respective resumes are below, along with the Sagarin ratings and records of all their opponents. You can decide for yourself what you think, I say it tips in favor of the Ducks. If enough people can put together MULTIPLE DATA POINTS and come up with legit reasons for Boise to take the crown, I'm all ears. "They stay ahead until they lose" is not legit, it's idiotic AP Poll-ism.
The only other qualm people brought up in the comments was potentially moving TCU past Boise State. For now, the main reason I left it as-is was that I didn't want to separate Oregon and Boise by more than one poll position. This week, they play relatively similar opponents in San Diego State and Louisiana Tech. If there's a big enough difference in their outcomes, I'll consider a move.
|1||47-20 #9 USC 6-2||19-8 #2 Oregon (7-1)||Slight Boise|
|2||42-3 #16 California (6-2)||51-34 #32 Fresno (5-3)||Big Oregon|
|3||31-24 #20 Utah (7-1)||49-14 #88 Bowling Green (3-5)||Medium Oregon|
|4||43-19 #38 Washington (3-5)||28-21 #92 Tulsa (4-4)||Big Oregon|
|5||24-10 #45 UCLA (3-5)||45-7 #98 San Jose State (1-6)||Big Oregon|
|6||38-36 #79 Purdue (3-6)||54-9 #123 Hawaii (2-6)||Push|
|7||52-6 #119 Washington State (1-7)||34-16 #136 UC Davis (4-4)||Big Oregon|
|8||8-19 #6 Boise (8-0)||48-0 #145 Miami NTM (1-8)||Big Boise|
|H2H||L @ Boise, 8-19||W v. Oregon, 19-8||Medium Boise|