Anyone looking for a good reason to bash recruiting coverage despite overwhelming evidence of statistical validity should seize upon this will-Pryor-sign-tomorrow tempest in a teapot; yesterday two media outlets (Rivals and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) had a stupid tiff about whether Pryor was 80 percent sure or 50 percent sure he'd sign on Signing Day. The Post-Gazette put up an article stating Pryor would sign and had eliminated Oregon; Rivals responded with a bitchy little piece about how "other published reports" were wrong.

Guess who's now rushing to tell you that Pryor will OMG sign tomorrow ($; meat in headline)? Rivals. This is news because Rivals said that Pryor might not sign yesterday after the Post-Gazette said he would. So hurray for all that.

Anyway, the meat: at 12:05 we get to find out whether Terrelle Pryor is the savior of the Michigan program or the most overrated recruit in the history of everything and a sloppy dresser to boot.

WARNING: NO PRYOR CONTENT.

It is time once again for the College Football Blogger Awards. As your reigning overlord, Every Day Should Be Saturday is the host and has kicked off festivities with the barely-formatted hunk of ugly that is his gift to other bloggers: yes, you do something better than Orson. Even if it's just putting together a slightly less crappy table.

I've got official nominees for four separate awards. Now for some pregame pump-up:

Dur du dur! Dur dur dur dur dur dur dur! Dur dur dur dur! Dur!

(For the illiterate or whatever: previous line is so obviously the opening riff to "Eye of the Tiger." Learn to READ.)

Update 2/5: Removed OH WR Roy Roundtree (premium article but the meat is in the headline/header).

PRYOR EEEE PRYOR EEEE: He's not deciding... unless he is! Jack McCallum knows jack and says OSU; Tom Luginbill also knows jack and says Michigan.

Editorial Opinion: Pryor either will or will not announce his college choice on Signing Day. Given the vast tide of public opinion pointing towards Ohio State it would be better if he delayed, which is either a 10-20 percent chance or a 50-50 chance depending on whether you listen to Pryor from yesterday morning or Pryor from yesterday afternoon. The yesterday morning bit was covered... er... yesterday. The yesterday afternoon one:

"I spoke to Pryor, and he said the report was incorrect," Farrell said. "He said was still 50/50 whether he'd sign or not, and Oregon is not eliminated. He said it's still Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State if he signs Wednesday, and Oregon is in the mix if he waits."

Whatever. Anyone who cares what the exact fake percentage is Pryor announces tomorrow should stop, shower, and go outside, and that's coming from a guy who's 50-50 to put on pants on any particular day. I mean 80-90 percent to put on pants. And the pants might still be from J. Crew unless the moon is gibbous, in which case the pants will definitely not be from J. Crew. Unless they are.

While the bulk of public opinion remains Ohio State, Scout guru Bob Lichtenfels -- the guy Pryor called to break the Rodriguez-to-Michigan news -- keeps flitting around Penn State boards saying vaguely positive things about a late Penn State push. Michigan has its own advocate in ESPN's Tom Luginbill, who's consistently said he believes M is the place for him, albeit in CYA terms. The latest:

Tom Luginbill, national recruiting director for ESPN Scouts Inc., gives the Wolverines a slight advantage in this quarterback derby because of Rodriguez.

"I really believe Ohio State, early on, was the front-runner, as well as Tennessee, until David Cutcliffe left for Duke," Luginbill said.

"Then all of a sudden, the Rich Rodriguez scenario took place and vaulted this thing into the stratosphere."

"Terrelle Pryor can run that offense. He knows it. Rich Rodriguez knows it. And it would be an opportunity to start the process off with him in that scheme and have him essentially be the guy the minute he steps onto the field," Luginbill said. "Not just because he's talented enough, but because he's the only one who can run it. And I think that obviously that has to be intriguing if you're Terrelle Pryor."

ESPN has proven itself completely useless in the prediction game, unfortunately, but if you wish to concoct crazy stories about the WWL leveraging his appearance on the network into killer inside info, be my guest. It will make you feel better for somewhere between a day and around two months.

And, hey, unreliable rumor site College Football Talk -- an offshoot of completely unreliable rumor site Pro Football Talk -- says Michigan thinks it wins:

A source close to the Michigan coaching staff tells CFT that head coach Rich Rodriguez believes top high school recruit Terrelle Pryor will announce tomorrow that he's going to Michigan.

Pro Football Talk has developed a reputation for getting information no one else is able to... hopefully this is their first big college splash.

This is always fun: Every year the Detroit News sends out a survey to its top 15 instate recruits asking them about their best and worst experiences and why not MSU or UM (or both if someone leaves the State). Once you get down into the double-digits asking the "why not M?" question gets cruel, though, especially for kids committed to State. MSU commit Charles Burrell:

Why not U-M? I didn't receive a scholarship offer from Michigan. That was the school I always wanted to go to. It was kind of disappointing they didn't offer me. I worked real hard to receive an offer.

Awwww. Aw. Poor kid.

Then there's Jonas Gray's story:

Why not U-M? I'm pretty close with people who have ties with U-M. My track coach, Stanley Edwards, is one. I got turned off when they offered me as an athlete. I ran a 4.3 (40-yard dash) at their camp and thought that would be good enough that they would offer me as a running back. Plus I knew coach (Lloyd) Carr wouldn't be there for four years.

It'll be interesting to see how he works out at Notre Dame. Michigan actually offered then-whodat Mike Cox over Gray despite Gray's blazing camp 40. No offense to Jonas, but I hope he kinda sucks because watching him excel would be tres frustrating.

Via AAIO:

Todd Leopold has just announced that he and Leopold Brothers are leaving A2 for Denver.

The reason is the same one it always is: skyrocketing rents.

Death to landlords! Death to capitalism! Death to Amerikkka! I might be over-reacting slightly! And this has nothing to do with sports! I'll fight any ponce in the comments who talks crap about Leopold's!*

*(unless you're huge, or a ninja, or made of bees, or are dangerous in any way.)

Update 2/4: Moved FL QB Justin Feagin to committed. Then moved him back to uncommitted. Moved TX WR Terrence Robinson to committed. Removed PA HB Christian Wilson. Linked to some more Feagin video, Robinson commit video. Added FL WR Onterrio McCalebb, FL OL Ricky Barnum, removed FL WR Martavious Odoms.

Pryor: one.

Editorial Opinion: As expected, Christian Wilson is officially going elsewhere.

Okay. Feagin appears on Michigan's commitment list on Scout but not on Rivals. Rivals is more reliable, so we go with them. Even so, given the presence of Feagin on the Michigan commit list at Scout and the tone of the Rivals article header ("Feagin wowed by Michigan experience" ($)) are separate indicators that the difference here is likely to be academic and by Wednesday at the latest Feagin will be in the fold. I've removed him from the commit list but left his indicator blue.

Embeddable Feagin for those uninclined to go through the cumbersome download-and-observe process, this from the IA state championship game:

(Love the kid coming out for his first field goal attempt of the year. No pressure, dude.)

Yes, Feagin is the guy doing the scoring for the white team and the guy getting torched by Melvin Ray, an Alabama commitment. If Feagin doesn't work out at QB he'll likely find a home in the secondary or at WR.

Meanwhile, Michigan picked up an actual official commit from Terrence Robinson last night. I've sort of blown the ol' wad already on Robinson, what with the "dream shake" and all that, but here it is one more time:

Mmmmm, football recruiting porn.

His announcement:

Seems like a nice kid, and I get inordinately excited about little darty fast guys, especially when they're named the best player in the Klein area over teammate, Texas commit, and national top-100 player Deshawn Hales. Robinson is a four-star to both Scout (#16 RB) and Rivals (#9 All-purpose back, actually higher rated than McGuffie) and gets an excellent 80 rating from ESPN. ESPN:

Quick-footed athlete, he is extremely slippery to bring down in the open field. Flashes loose hips and great stop-start cutting ability; does not lose much in his transition. Slighter frame but is not afraid to stick it up hard between the tackles.

Negatives according to the WWL: only "adequate" hands and a lack of true top-end speed.

Robinson is a perfect fit in the slot, a major need in the new offense, and picking up his commitment after being nowhere is a minor coup for Rodriguez and Co.

Pryor! has evidently decided to scrap the Oregon visit and will decide on Signing Day as originally planned. Probably.

Decision day will be at noon Wednesday for Terrelle Pryor.

Pryor, star quarterback at Jeannette High School, said today he is "80 to 90 percent sure" he will announce his choice at a news conference Wednesday. He had been considering pushing back his decision a week or so, and possibly visiting the University of Oregon.

But Pryor said he will not visit Oregon and the Ducks are out of the picture.

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State remain.

Status. Wilson and Robinson cancel out; with Morales on both sites commit lists now it's clear he's a scholarship player. That leaves Michigan at 19 kids with a likely commit from Feagin bringing them to 20.

The five spots:

• One additional QB. If it's not Pryor, probably Dominick Britt from Trotwood-Madison.
• Hopefully MI DE Nick Perry.
• A fifth offensive lineman, either current Cinci commit Patrick Omameh or current Florida commit Ricky Barnum.
• One more slot/RB type: Penn State commit Michael Shaw, Auburn commit Onterrio McCalebb, or Purdue commit Roy Roundtree.
• Super fairy surprise.

The class will likely end up at 23 or 24, IMO.

It's Bo! In Michigan Stadium! Being Bo! Unfortunately, it's with Mitch Albom. But whatever:

WolverineHistorian also has clips from the '86 Ohio State game.

It's Mike Hart! Mitch Albom is thousands of miles away!

(Via.)

He'll grubberize the left flankenoid! Budding "television presenter" Dhani Jones is going to get his rugby on:

"Because Dhani [pronounced Dee-hah-nee] is a defensive lineman [sic], his catching and passing are the things we need to work on.

"All being well, he will come on the field as a flanker. I don't think it will make much difference whether it's blindside or openside.

"We just have to make sure that when he hits someone it is an opponent who has got the ball and that he's not running an illegal blocking move."

A football fan has no place to criticize obscure minutiae in another sport, but I've taken in a few rugby games and find it utterly incomprehensible. It was fun, though, to sit in polite befuddlement as the people around me went nuts about seemingly irrelevant developments... now I know what it's like for people around me.

Defending the man. Anyone who's read this blog for any length of time knows that it consistently advocates for more aggressive playcalling, especially in the tough-FG-or-pooch-punt area of the field from about the 50 to the opponent's 30. Years of screaming "NO!" at Lloyd Carr have created something of an obsession.

This is a mildly tough position to hold in the aftermath of a Super Bowl that featured one ballsy decision to pass up a 48-yard field goal that led to a turnover on downs and a three-point loss. No doubt some toolish sportswriter who believes in things like heart and thinks math is for pencil-necked commies will seize upon this and write a scathingly dumb article about newfangled methods.

HOWEVA, it should be noted that the Romer paper mostly applies to downs like fourth and three, not fourth and thirteen. This graph is the heart of the paper (click for big; it's a little unintelligible at this size):
The solid line represents the point at which kicking and going for it are equal choices; never does it breach ten yards to go and at the 31 yard line it's begun a steep downward pitch into reasonable FG distance. By my estimation, Romer's paper suggests that going for it on fourth and eight is barely defensible; fourth and thirteen is lunacy.

Hatred! In the aftermath of the MSU series, Yost Built took a look at Michigan's odd power play disparity. You'd expect that Michigan, always one of the best teams in the CCHA, would have an advantage when it comes to power play opportunities, right?

This was the case a few years ago, but not so much now:

2007-08: Michigan: 132, Opponents: 141, 8-14-4
2006-07: Michigan: 241, Opponents: 241, 18-19-4
2005-06: Michigan: 254, Opponents: 233, 22-14-5
2004-05: Michigan: 273, Opponents: 244, 21-12-9
2003-04: Michigan: 241, Opponents: 175, 33-3-7

(Note the NMU series numbers are not in here.) A few theories as to Michigan's progressive downturn here:

• The NCAA went through a brief, wonderful period during which they really cracked down on obstruction, which really helped Michigan; this is less heavily emphasized these days.
• Jack Johnson. Self explanatory, no?
• Steve Piotrowksi.

As in "Steve Piotrowski's retirement". The piece of data from the Yost Built post that leaps off the page:

Piotrowski: 10.4 PPO/game, +66, 27-7-4 over 38 games ...

None of the other refs that we frequently have (double digit times over 5 years) is higher [in PPO +/- for M] than +.65/game, whereas Pio is at +1.74/game for Michigan

Piotrowski was universally acclaimed the best ref in the CCHA and possibly the NCAA. He officiated multiple national championship games during the CCHA prolonged absence from said game and is now the CCHA's director of officials. Now he's gone and Michigan can't buy a hooking penalty.

The King of Rationalization. Friday's emo post about the basketball team contained a complain against the WHO WANTS SOME FREEEEE PIZZAAAAA announcer guy. It turns out that the announcer guy gets around the area, announcing things from Tiger baseball to Eastern Michigan basketball and Toledo Storm hockey. He is well loved by the Storm faithful:

"A LOT OF PEOPLE think it's odd that the fans boo me. It goes back to something a former Blade sports reporter wrote. He thought it was horrible that I introduced myself because most announcers don't. So in one of his columns he encouraged people to boo me. I think they were booing me to spite his suggestion. But that's how it started. I took my dad to a game and I told him the fans really like me. When they all booed me he said, 'Robert, I thought you said they liked you.' I told him if they didn't like me,
they wouldn't boo me every night.

Uh... someone fax this guy to South Bend.

In any case, while this guy may be excellent for the Toledo Storm and Eastern Michigan his particular brand of irritating rah-rah is not a fit with the Michigan athletic program and he should be replaced. Or at least tranquilized before games.

Etc.: Discount tickets are available for the Ferris State hockey game over break (uh... and the Northwestern basketball game); Michigan is a factory of champions. Also Googles.