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Great Scott, Hokepoints Was Heavy

By Seth — October 8th, 2013 at 12:24 PM — 17 comments
Filed under:
  • 100% hot nerd action
  • big formations
  • devin funchess
  • devin funchess wide receiver possibility
  • hokepoints
  • MANBALL
  • unbalanced line

Gonebig

That is 2,728 pounds—1.24 metric tons—in the box for those weighing at home.
On 1st and 10. MANBRAAAHHHLLL!!!

Before the Minnesota game I tweeted that I'd be perfectly content if Borges debuted a completely new package and used it to beat up on the Gophers at home a la 2011. So here I am, being content.

The unbalanced stuff I'm sure Brian will picture page and Space Coyote and Burgeoning Wolverine Star will peel it apart as well; since they know more about that stuff I'll leave it to them. What I would like to do is look at the heavy formations in the macro: how Big did Michigan actually go, how effective it was on a yards-per-play basis, and whether it matches the personnel.

By "big" I mean fewer receivers in the formation. The lower that number, the more backs and TEs, and thus the "heavier" the formation. How big?

Average Receivers in Formation:

Season Overall Normal downs*
2008 3.14 3.14
2009 2.84 2.90
2010 3.13 3.15
2011 2.59 2.60
2012 2.52 2.55
2013 games 1-4 2.30 2.29
2013 Minnesota 1.83 (!) 1.79 (!)

That is big—like we should all have pronounced brow ridges and live in caves and the equipment sponsor is Mousterian big. I counted Funchess as a WR when he was in a 2-point stance; if you file him as a half tight end (you shouldn't) it gets even heavier. A lot of the three-wide was on the time-sensitive last drive of the 1st half—that you should count.

Did it work? Did it work better than the stuff Michigan has been doing until now? Did they always run to the side they unbalanced? We see after the jump.

Read more »
  • 17 comments

Mailbag: Line Depth When, Ridiculous Lewan/Ryan Hybrid, Why Return Punts?

By Brian — October 8th, 2013 at 11:27 AM — 5 comments
Filed under:
  • chris bryant
  • jack miller
  • jake ryan
  • mailbag
  • offensive line
  • punt returns
  • quinton washington
  • ridiculous
  • taylor lewan

DOOM DOOM DOOM

image

it gets better

Hi Brian,

This whole Center situation has put me in a funk [ed: I see what you did there] and all I can see in the future is doom and gloom.  Aren't we going to be in the exact same position next year?  I was wondering if you could address on your site the future prospects of this position going forward.  Miller is not cutting it at the moment (or at least that's the popular opinion).  But is this a problem that he's still too young and needs to learn?  Or is it that he's just too undersized for the position?  I've heard zilch about the other Centers on the roster, Burzynski and Kugler.  So what is to happen next year?  Should I just blindfold myself and box my ears for the next year or two?

Regards,
Robert

Sometimes guys just have it, and sometimes they get it eventually, and sometimes they never do. David Molk had no problem popping into a starting lineup as a redshirt freshman and being good immediately. Miller's been done few favors by Michigan's renewed emphasis on the stretch after barely running in the last two years and should become more consistent as he acquires experience with it, but Glasgow seems to be making fewer mistakes than he did at the same level of experience.

The good news is that this year and last should be the nadir for options on the Michigan line. Last year, Miller was literally the only scholarship option other than true freshmen Michigan could turn to if they wanted to make a switch. This year they're in a similar situation except the (formerly) backup option is the oft-injured Chris Bryant; Blake Bars is also an option but looked far from ready this fall.

Next year it's a whole different story. Michigan loses their two tackles and must find a left tackle from Magnuson or Braden; right tackle will be a battle between one of those two guys and any of a fleet of 6'5" guys who can play both tackle and guard. On the interior they'll suddenly be spoilt for choice with count-'em nine options give or take a guy who might be sucked out to tackle. That is worlds away from what Michigan's got now.

They will be young. Michigan will have no seniors on next year's offensive line save Burzynski. They should be able to paper over some concerns with depth in their options.

Wither Washington against spread to run?

Brian,

In light of our defensive approach to use Black/Wormley as nominal DTs against passing spreads like ND and Akron, should we be concerned against the Buckeyes?  Watching how they call their plays at the line, I would think Urban would have Hyde pound it up the middle anytime we showed that alignment.  Do you see this meaning we will see more Washington than we would typically against a spread team?  Or is sacrificing some beef in the middle with Black worth the lateral speed we gain against their skill players?

The challenge posed by OSU is dealing with not only lateral speed from Miller and their little slot buggers but holding up against Carlos Hyde, who's more manball than any back Michigan has at its disposal. If the defensive line can't hold up against OSU double teams… well, you saw the Northwestern game. It's not pretty for a defense.

I'll be shocked if Michigan has a nickel package on the field against Ohio State on anything other than third and long. Washington is going to a be a key piece against all the spread-to-run teams on the docket, and there are plenty: OSU, Northwestern, and Nebraska plus certain packages Indiana might run with Tre Roberson. With the rest of the schedule filled out by PSU, MSU, and Iowa, we've seen the last of games where Washington is largely a spectator as opponents fling the ball about willy-nilly.

Why bother returning punts anyway?

block[1]

this massively blocked punt was the difference in NW-OSU (via Eleven Warriors)

This question was prompted by watching Michigan try (and fail) to set up a return when Minnesota was punting from inside their 10 yard line today.

Why not always go for the block?  How is running 20 yards backwards, then trying to find and block someone better than making someone block you in their own backfield?  Best case, you block the punt; worst case, coverage team suffers from having to defend against punt block before focusing on coverage.  If the point of setting up a punt return is to keep would-be tacklers away from the returner, why not make those would-be tacklers deal with would-be punt blockers 40+ yards away from where the punt lands?  I really just don’t get it.

-Paul

Going for a block is a high variance strategy that rarely brings any reward at all and often results in flags for hitting the punter; used too consistently it's asking to eat fake punts more often than you actually get to the punter. So you've got to set up returns at least some of the time: fourth and five or less, any punt safe situation, times when you don't care to risk roughing the punter because you're up, and enough other times to keep teams from planning a fake punt you'll get strafed by.

Meanwhile, with modern punting formations the only guys who have to dedicate themselves full time to blocking you are the three gentlemen in the shield. For the other seven players, a momentary delay on a guy at the line is good enough. If you're sending guys after the punter all the time that's not going to change the behavior of the punting team enough to help you on returns.

The only thing that will do that is blocking enough punts to force guys back into NFL-style punting, and dozens of coaches working over the course of a decade haven't been able to make shield punting seem more vulnerable than the NFL stuff. I'm with you somewhat, in that so few punts get returned effectively these days that you should slant your prep towards blocking them and go after punters more often* but never bothering with setting up a return is too far in the other direction.

*[especially since it's relatively easy to not get a roughing the kicker call: just avoid the guy's plant foot.]

LIKE "THE FLY" EXCEPT GOOD

460x[1]

Hello Brian, Brian's Hair, Ace, Seth and Heiko,

I was watching the network broadcast of the game yesterday and near the end, right around Countess' interception, the broadcast cut to a shot of Jon Falk preparing to open the mail bin that held the Jug. Taylor Lewan was standing next to the bin and I believe one of the announcers called him "Jake Lewan."

Alas, it was a misstatement. But could you imagine if this player existed? Huge. Crazy. Two-way. He pancake blocks linebackers and hurls chipping running backs to the ground. He both protects QBs and turns them into small smears on the ground. I would love to see a .gif of this being in action (destroying the skyline of Columbus Godzilla-style, consuming raw sides of beef lobbed at it by an approving Coach Mattison, charging into the interview room and ripping Heiko's head off after he asks Borges about bubble screens etc. ). I would love to see the Mathlete whip up some sophisticated simulation in R or Stata to project  this mythical player's stats. How many stars would he have gotten on the recruiting trail? (six?) What would his fake forty time be?  Could he eat more than Charlie Weiss? What sort of tattoos would he have? What pet would he own? The possibilities are both endless and fascinating.

Just thought I'd mention it.

-Patrick

The Mathlete started simulating this but desisted when he started noticing small glitches in reality. He swears that carbonation of beverages was rare until he started working on your question, Patrick. The initial results are a little rough, but your answers:

  1. COULD YOU IMAGINE IF THIS PLAYER EXISTED? No longer do I imagine or dream, as the act of doing so now brings things into reality. While I could use this for good, eventually the wrong thing would be thought about and Michigan would have two wins over Ohio State since OH GOD I DID IT DO YOU SEE PATRICK, DO YOU SEE?
  2. HOW MANY STARS WOULD JAKE LEWAN HAVE. Blue. Div by zero.
  3. WHAT WOULD HIS FAKE 40 TIME BE? Zero point two seconds, to account for human stopwatch vagaries. This would be real, and thus break the concepts of fake 40 times and reality.
  4. COULD HE EAT MORE THAN CHARLIE WEIS(S)? If you are referring to the temporary head of the Kansas Jayhawks, he's had bariatric surgery so most nine-year-olds could do this. If you are referring to some random dude who has to keep correcting everyone who lols at him about decided schematic advantage, yes. This is a large man who is physically active. Charlie Weiss lifts a little bit but cannot compare.
  5. WHAT SORT OF TATTOOS WOULD HE HAVE? Animated ones depicting the rise and fall of Atlantis, both of which were his doing.
  6. WHAT PET WOULD HE OWN? His Excellency The Most Exalted Velocironald The Third The Fourth The Second, Jr.
  • 5 comments

Monday Presser Transcript 10-7-13: Brady Hoke

By Heiko — October 7th, 2013 at 4:02 PM — 42 comments
Filed under:
  • 2013 minnesota
  • 2013 penn state
  • brady hoke
  • chris bryant
  • jake ryan
  • ondre pipkins
  • press conference transcripts
  • actual reporting

Boo boos:

  • Jake Ryan has been cleared to play. 
  • Ondre Pipkins tore his ACL.

-----------------------

Podium

“It was very good to win this past weekend. Homecoming, the Brown Jug, multiple things that were good. There was improvement, which you want every week. Fundamentally and with technique. We have to continue that with all positions. Two penalties and no turnovers, probably as much as anything besides winning, was very good for us as a football team and something for us to make sure that we pay attention to. I think we do, but the significance of that was huge to be plus two in turnover margin.”

Losing Ondre Pipkins, how does that affect what you guys do?

“Well, Richard Ash … We have some multiple guys. Willie Henry can play the three. Ryan Glasgow. Your heart just goes out to Ondre. Any guy that gets hurts, obviously. It’s something that is a little bit of adversity for him obviously and for our team. Just like anything else, we’ll work together and get through it.”

Is that past the redshirt deadline?

“That’s all something that we’ll have to appeal and do all that stuff with. It’s way too soon to say it is or isn’t.”

Read more »
  • 42 comments

MGoPodcast 5.5: Jugs Machine

By Brian — October 7th, 2013 at 3:23 PM — 16 comments
Filed under:
  • 2013 minnesota
  • podcasts

10107707333_55432bb69d_c[1]

We have all the Funchess photos and will use them, appropriate or not. In this case: appropriate. [Eric Upchurch]

OFFENSE

No turnovers, no turnovers, and no turnovers. Tackle buddy system: sustainable? Funchess, Funchess, Funchess. Bubble screens make a cameo.

DEFENSE

Grim Ishtar drive and then the rest of the game. Pipkins sadness. Parboiled passivity puzzling.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Matt Wile is back yo.

TALKING BIG TEN WITH JAMIEMAC

Will Michigan have to play Indiana twice to

MUSIC

"Across 110th Street."
"Super 8," Jason Isbell
"Just Dropped In To See What Condition My Condition Is In," Kenny Rogers.

The usual links:

  • Helpful iTunes subscribe link
  • General podcast feed link
  • Direct download link
  • What's with the theme music?

It look's like you don't have Adobe Flash Player installed. Get it now.

more like enjoyable go

  • 16 comments

Monday Recruitin' Maintains Structural Integrity

By Ace — October 7th, 2013 at 2:47 PM — 22 comments
Filed under:
  • 2014 recruiting
  • 2015 recruiting
  • alex malzone
  • bryan mone
  • david moorman
  • jabrill peppers
  • kevin dillman
  • recruiting roundup

2015 Quarterbacks: The Overview


Kevin Dillman (L) and Kyle Kearns (R)

The most pressing question regarding the 2015 class is which quarterback Michigan will offer next; our own Brandon Brown posted a detailed overview of the candidates on Sunday, and since we had a lot of content over the weekend I'd like to highlight it again. Here's the upshot, though you're strongly encouraged to check out the whole thing:

As the high schools seasons near and pass the midway point, evaluations are beginning to take shape and I heard Sam Webb say that he expects an offer or offers to be dealt within the next month or two to a 2015 quarterback prospect. I believe it will be to someone on this list and I’d rank these prospects as follows:

  1. Kevin Dillman
  2. Kyle Kearns
  3. Riley Neal
  4. Sheriron Jones
  5. Brady White
  6. Nick Johns
  7. Alex Malzone

I think Dillman should be priority #1 based on his film. He’s a gamer and has a toughness and a quality about him you like to see at the quarterback position.

We've reached something of an MGoConsensus in wanting Dillman to get the next offer.

There's a lot of local support for Brother Rice quarterback Alex Malzone, and while he doesn't appear to be in line for the next offer or two right now, he'll get a chance to prove himself in front of the coaches, per Scout's Allen Trieu ($):

"Coach Borges said I'm definitely on their radar and that I'm having a great year. He wants to see me throw live, so I think they're going to try to come to the Catholic League Championship Game on October 26th since it's their bye week."

Malzone was at Saturday's game and said he "loved the visit." If offered, he's probably a lock to commit. With Michigan's very limited 2015 class size, they'll take only one quarterback in the cycle—with Malzone in their backyard, the coaches can wait to offer him while evaluating all of their potential options and guaging their interest.

Well, Yeah

Rivals released an unordered list of the top ten "out of state steals" for the 2014 class, and the obvious choice is obvious:

DB Jabrill Peppers, Paramus (N.J.) Paramus Catholic
Peppers is the type of player that can fill that Charles Woodson/Patrick Peterson role for Michigan. It was very impressive that the Wolverines' staff was able to go out to the East Coast, away from their traditional recruiting grounds, and grab one of the top players in the country. In addition to his abilities on the field, Peppers' character and leadership attributes are something that coach Brady Hoke and company really like.

Damon Webb also makes the list; if you feel sad about that at all, look up.

Speaking of Peppers, he's at #3 in the latest 2014 Top247. Michigan's commits all stayed in essentially the same place; you can see the full rundown at Touch The Banner.

[Hit THE JUMP for the latest Wolverine commit to get an All-American invite and a roundup of the top statistical performances from last weekend.]

Read more »
  • 22 comments

Necessary But Not Sufficient

By Brian — October 7th, 2013 at 12:18 PM — 241 comments
Filed under:
  • 2013 minnesota
  • chris bryant
  • devin funchess
  • drew dileo
  • game columns
  • graham glasgow
  • i am so livejournal right now
  • i didn't mean this to be so creepy
  • jehu chesson
  • jibreel black
  • jon falk
  • little brown jug
  • matt wile
  • ondre pipkins
  • special k make michigan stadium wicked sweet dawg
  • unbalanced line

10/5/2013 – Michigan 42, Minnesota 13 – 5-0, 1-0 Big Ten

10107704246_7cae9148f0_c[1]

Eric Upchurch

Jon Falk has a compatriot at Minnesota. He's probably had a dozen over his 40 years as Michigan's equipment manager. Some guy who comes in with the latest Gopher coaching staff, wonders what it's like to hold the jug in his meaty palm, and maybe once gets to shepherd it for a year. Since Falk arrived at Michigan a fresh-faced young thing four years into Bo's career, his opposite number has had this experience three times.

In proof lingo, this means that beating Minnesota—beating up on Minnesota, usually—is a necessary but not sufficient property of Michigan teams that want to do anything with their seasons. Sometimes you can retain the Jug despite not being very good; sometimes you can retain the jug despite being headed for 3-9 because Nick Sheridan has an out-of-body experience. When you're headed for 3-9 you get a little misty about the Jug coming out. When you're not the worst team in Ann Arbor since the 1930s it's a checkbox to fill out.

Michigan did so in perfunctory style, grinding out a second half in which they went from vaguely threatened to bored. Since this came on the heels of narrow escapes against teams that lost 43-3 to Ohio on Saturday and 41-12 to Buffalo last week, it's progress. How much is unknown.

--------------------------

This game settled into a grim fugue state almost from the drop, as Michigan manballed its way into the endzone on a Statement Drive to start the game. Unfortunately, that Statement was "by putting Taylor Lewan next to Michael Schofield we can bull our way down the field against Minnesota." That statement is unlikely to apply to many teams on the schedule. But, hey, progress.

Then Minnesota donned turbans and embarked on the Ishtar Drive. An epic production galaxy-spanning in its dullness that arrived at its destination two hours too late and failed to have the desired impact, it ate up the rest of the quarter. Michigan left it without having attempted a pass.

This was a little dull.

It was the kind of dull that had Space Coyote, the Michigan's blogosphere's resident instant analysis savant, pleading with the masses that the intricacies of a well-blocked power play were just as appealing as, say, watching 175-pound Venric Mark activate his truck stick on an Ohio State safety. I can't imagine there's another Michigan fan in the world more receptive to that argument than yours truly and even I wasn't buying that as the secondary effect of all that manball kicked in: punt, commercial, play, end of quarter, commercial, play play, punt, commercial. Touchdown, commercial, kickoff, commercial—the NFL special. As the teams' attempt to blow through this game in record time was thwarted by the networks, being in Michigan Stadium became the worst concert of all time interrupted by bouts of football-related activity.

It was the kind of thing that made you consider what the purpose of your fandom was. Am I only here to see Michigan end a game with a larger number on the scoreboard than Opponent? Is there any valid goal outside of this? Am I a bad fan for wishing something interesting would happen? Do the people on twitter who scorn you for having feelings other than Go Team have a point? What is the point of any of this, and why can't they make the wifi work?

At halftime, the guys in front of me discussed whether they would bolt for Frazer's, and two did. I'm usually a guy who thinks leaving an athletic event before it's decided is a mortal sin, but I kind of envied the guy in the home-made muscle shirt screwing off to a place where he could get a beer and not hear "Build Me Up, Buttercup." At any other time, I would have thought this man's attendance at Michigan Stadium was a necessary property of a fan that he had just shown was not sufficient by leaving a touchdown game at halftime like he was a sorority girl about to blow a .341. On Saturday, I was with him in spirit.

This is a fearful development. I don't want to think like that. I want to be forever ten years old, excited by everything. On Saturday I had a long look down the elevator shaft.

622377-1_super[1]

It'll pass like the moment above did. Someone will do something interesting, and there will be something at stake other than a piece of crockery that just means you're not horrible, and sometimes not even that. I had a bad day, I was pissed at Dave Brandon when I discovered I was thirsty but knew I couldn't do anything about it without missing a large chunk of the game I was there to see even if it was narcoleptic, I was emo after the last few weeks of expectation-depressing terror. It'll pass, and the doors will close on the moment where I reached out and felt the slight outlines of a limit to my fandom.

Right?

----------------

Michigan won by a lot, eventually.

Highlights

Completely one-sided highlights:

Awards

brady-hoke-epic-double-point_thumb_3[1]Brady Hoke Epic Double Point Of The Week. Has to be Michigan's new favorite worst nightmare at wide receiver: Devin Funchess. Relieved of many blocking duties and deployed on the outside, Funchess displayed fantastic hands on a couple of catches outside of his body, ran routes that got him tons of separation, and went right by a Minnesota cornerback(!) on a straight-up fly route(!) to prove himself Michigan's best deep threat(?). By the end of the game he had newspaper types plumbing the statistical depths for completely invalid comparisons to Jim Mandich, who was a tight end, which Devin Funchess is not.

Honorable mention: No Turnovers, which may be Devin Gardner's temporary name until such point as he turns it over. Schofield and Lewan were mashing as tackle brothers. Blake Countess did have a pick six, albeit one of no importance. James Ross and Desmond Morgan had lots of tackles, usually at the LOS when not facing spread formations.

Epic Double Point Standings.

1.0: Devin Gardner (ND), Jeremy Gallon (ND), Desmond Morgan(UConn), Devin Funchess(Minnesota)
0.5: Cam Gordon (CMU), Brennen Beyer (CMU)

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I guess? [Upchurch]

Brady Hoke Epic Double Fist-Pump Of The Week. Wow. Are we at a loss here? We might be at a loss here. Countess's interception was after the game was decided, as was the long Funchess fly route thing. Michigan's longest run went for not many yards. I guess we're going with Fitzgerald Toussaint scoring an easy ten-yard touchdown, as it hinted that Michigan may be able to run the ball forward? Yeah, okay.

Honorable mention: Funchess reception, pick one. Countess pick. Black FF.

Epic Double Fist-Pumps Past.

8/31/2013: Dymonte Thomas introduces himself by blocking a punt.
9/7/2013: Jeremy Gallon spins through four Notre Dame defenders for a 61-yard touchdown.
9/14/2013: Michigan does not lose to Akron. Thanks, Thomas Gordon.
9/21/2013: Desmond Morgan's leaping one-handed spear INT saves Michigan's bacon against UConn.
10/5/2013: Fitzgerald Toussaint runs for ten yards, gets touchdown rather easily.

[After THE JUMP: actual game analysis instead of pathetic emo self-pity mooning!]

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