chance of bowl: 13.6%
Thursday 6:35pm ET
(4-5, 3.81 ERA)
(4-3, 6.68 ERA)
Notes: Michigan is 34-42 all time,
Last year: 1-2 series loss.
Friday 5:35 ET
(2-6, 5.75 ERA)
Saturday 1:05pm ET
Michigan is on the road for the Big Ten finale. With just a game separating Michigan from first place Minnesota, they'll be giving it all with the Big Ten Title on the line. The Wolverines need just one win to clinch a spot in the Big Ten Tournament, but they'll need quite a bit more to secure a coveted bye, presented to the top two teams in conference.
Brief look at the Ball State game and a Penn State preview after the jump.
Highly touted Michigan hockey recruit Lucas Lessio is scheduled to be the centerpiece of the 2011 recruiting class. Usually after the OHL draft passes and the player has spurned advances from a team that took you seventh overall the window of danger has passed, but Oshawa traded for Lessio and has made enough of a push that he made an appearance at their rookie camp:
The fact he showed up to orientation camp is a positive sign at this point in the game, says Generals coach/GM Chris DePiero.
"I think the fact he came to rookie camp was step one," DePiero said on Tuesday. "My conversations with him over the last three months have been pretty positive in terms of him giving us at least a full shot and chance."
Lessio can attend the camp and maintain his eligibility; still, showing up is an obvious sign the OHL door is not closed.
On the other hand, the USHL's Waterloo franchise just took him eighth overall in their futures draft. That indicates they're confident he'll be with them next year, especially because Lessio would be a one-year player in the USHL. All of this appears to indicate a desire to get away from the CCHL, where Lessio obliterated the competition to the tune of a 30-42-72 line in just 41 games. The USHL is a major step up in competition; hopefully it will be attractive enough to keep him committed.
As always, the 2011 Michigan Football Recruiting Board can be found here.
As he did for junior days earlier this year, Tom has built up a roster of those attending (and not):
- MI OL Anthony Zettel
- OH DE Chris Rock
- MD DT Darian Cooper
- OH OL Ray Ball
- VA LB Corey Marshall
- OH WR AJ Jordan
- MI DE Commit Brennen Beyer
For comments on these guys, a list of those who aren't making it, and all the latest updates, check out Tom's diary. A couple other sources also have updates:
NC LB/WR Kris Frost (pictured above ) says he's trying to make it to the BBQ at the Big House this weekend, but is unsure, due to travel costs. Frost was the subject of this week's Sam Webb profile in the Detroit News. Michigan is trying to stay out front:
"Well, I've always wanted to go to Michigan," admitted Frost. "I've always wanted to attend that school. When I went up to Michigan (for the program's annual summer football camp) I was really excited. It was everything that I really thought it would be."
"I think Michigan is the team to beat because he's liked Michigan his whole life," added [Butler coach Mike] Newsome. "When I told him that they had offered him he almost jumped up and hit his head on the ceiling. He is really excited about Michigan."
Of course, it's not all sunshine and lollipops:
"Unfortunately for them, there's the problem that they are going through with their program right now. I think it is something that Kris is looking at right now and is using that to look at some other schools. "
As long as Michigan has a good season and the coaching staff staves off any threat of losing their jobs, Michigan should remain the team to beat (as we shared last week). For the record, he now says that, while he'd prefer to play wide receiver in college, he's open to playing linebacker.
PA CB Dondi Kirby plans to be there.
Unfortunately, FL RB Demetrius Hart will probably not be making the trip. FL S Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix says his teammate will ultimately pick Alabama. HC-D has been saying things like this for a while, so take it with a grain of salt until Hart himself goes on the record.
New Offers, Present And Future
"No one's in the lead right now. Everything is wide open for me. I'm going to start taking trips in June, or July. After that I'll start all my officials, when I'm allowed to." When asked if Michigan will receive one of those visits, he said, "I'm definitely going to talk to my dad about that one."
Michigan has offered PA Ath Mike Caputo. He's a high school wideout.
The Wolverines have offered OH OL Ray Ball ($, info in header).
Michigan has offered PA DT Delvon Simmons, and the Wolverines currently reside in his top three:
“It would probably be North Carolina, West Virginia and Michigan. They’re all pretty even at this point,” he said.
“I haven’t talked to North Carolina a lot. I’ve maybe talked to them twice. I like how they’ve been open with me. They sound good right now but I’ve got to go up there and get to know them some more before I say too much.
“Michigan is the same thing pretty much. I like their coach—the recruiting coach for around my area. I met him in person and he seems like a real nice dude.”
Michigan looks to be in good shape for his recruitment.
The 5-foot-9.5, 173-pound uber athletic defensive back prospect entered the evaluation period with offers from Arkansas and Houston (his first offer), but has since added written offers from California, Michigan and Baylor along with a verbal offer from Missouri.
Last week, May 5, coaches from Texas (Will Muschamp) and Oklahoma (Willie Martinez) stopped by the 5A school to watch the corner with a 40 1/2-inch vertical leap.
Oklahoma and Texas interest means he's probably a top prospect, but also that he'll be a tough pull for Michigan.
Michigan is interested, but no offer, in PA DE Shawn Oakman.
Happy Trails, Trai Turner. Just a few days after saying he'd take his time and look at a few schools, LA OL Trai Turner committed to Louisiana State ($, info in header). His teammate, LA S Renaldo Thomas did or will do the same. No word yet on the third St. Augustine prospect, LA OL Jonah Austin. Austin does not hold an offer from the Tigers.
Happy trails as well to OH OL/DT Michael Bennett. With a final two of Ohio State and Northwestern, he picked the Buckeyes over the weekend.
We found out last week that Michigan was in the top three for NC QB Marquise Williams, and now he's trimmed his list to consider only five schools ($, info in header). Michigan, Notre Dame, and North Carolina are in that final group.
AR QB Kiehl Frazier is still wide open, but it seems as though Arkansas, Auburn, and Notre Dame comprise an unofficial top 3.
"I'm really wide open until I take some visits to see schools," Frazier told Sporting News. "After spring ball, I'm going to go some places and take it in."
A trip to Notre Dame could also mean dropping in on Ann Arbor, so stay tuned.
“I think Michigan will be in the mix without a doubt because those guys have done a great job,” [Chaparral coach Charlie] Ragle said. “Tony (Dews) and those guys that come out here - Tony mainly recruits this area but Coach (Greg) Frey came out - they do a good job, but like I said, the players sell your program.”
Ragle said the 6-foot-5, 260-pound Yruretagoyena is in regular contact with both Lewan and Roh, and that Michigan likely will be in Yruretagoyena’s final five when he cuts his list in the coming month.
So, Oregon probably leads, but Michigan has a chance to get back into it.
FL TE Brandon Fulse is hearing from Rod Smith a lot ($, info in header).
Michigan is a co-leader for MI LB Dwight Trammer. Though the Wolverines haven't offered, Rod Smith got a couple chances to scout Trammer last fall (pictured at right doing just that), as he's a former Inkster teammate of current Wolverines QB Devin Gardner.
According to some Detroit newspaper of no repute, MD DT Vincent Croce has a top three of Michigan, Michigan State, and Virginia.
OH CB Doran Grant says "haha j/k" about his top 6 list also serving as a final 6 ($, info in header).
SoFlaFootball visits Chaminade-Madonne High School in Florida, and breaks down a couple guys we've been talking about recently in S Jonathan Aiken, WR Curt Evans, and QB Jerrard Randall.
The issue that Randall continues to struggle with is the fact he can be erratic with his accuracy, which became apparent during the 7-on-7 portion of the practice.
Evans played a little of everything on the day starting at cornerback, getting some carries as a running back, before finally moving out to wide receiver.
Aiken has good bulk on him and is a good athlete. He did not look to be fluid enough in coverage to move to a corner spot like many have debated; safety is probably his best option.
Aiken posts on BuckeyePlanet, and it seems as though he's favoring Ohio State despite the lack of an offer.
NJ OL Shane Mertz wants to hear from Michigan. Mertz is 6-8, 280lbs, and has great grades. I bet coaches would love to have him in camp to see what he can do.
As for academics, I am interested in mechanical engineering as a major so a school with a strong engineering program is very important. I’m looking into becoming an aerospace engineer. That’s what I want to do. Maybe some day work for NASA.
I am looking for a program that has high quality football facilities and state of the art training. I don’t have anything specific in mind but I’d like to be at a place that has great training facilities.
Samrt kid, would be a good addition.
Schools I would like to hear from are Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Penn State. Definitely Michigan though. My dads mom is actually from Michigan. So my dad has always been a die hard Michigan football fan. It would be a great achievement for me if I could get an offer from them.
He's very interested, hopefully Michigan gives him a look.
Michigan's offer for FL RB Andrew Buie was actually on the other side of the ball:
“Auburn offered me as an athlete and Michigan offered me to play defensive back,” Buie said. “I want to play running back but I’m open to a couple of other positions.”
Doesn't sound like he's interested, and the Wolverines may fade from his recruitment.
Greg Frey and Tony Dews recently stopped into Fort Meyers to visit FL WR Sammy Watkins and his teammate, CB/Ath Dallas Crawford.
Michigan leads for LA CB Daren Kitchen ($, info in header), and he says it would be "hard to turn down" an offer from the Wolverines.
The Distant Future. The Year 2012.
Michigan is already in good position with a number of 2012 prospects. We already knew about MI LB James Ross, but his youth football teammate, MI LB Royce Jenkins-Stone, now at a school called "Cass Tech" (you may have heard of it) considers Michigan among his top schools ($, info in header).
The Wolverines also lead for OH DE Chris Wormley ($, info in header). Wormley should be a top-5 player in Ohio next year.
Keep an eye on another OH DE, LaTroy Lewis, who has a connection to Michigan ($, info in header).
Advertising note. If you live in Michigan (or, more accurately, if your ISP does) You may have noticed a banner for the Women's Football Academy rotating along the right side of the blog. They've purchased some ad space in support of the blog and I'd encourage anyone who is a qualified for the Academy (read: a woman) to check it out. As with many things related to the football program these days, the proceeds go to an excellent cause.
Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon: 'Change is in the wind'
Poem to date:
I create the future
Change is in the wind.
That is all. Oh: peanut gallery request for Dave Brandon Poetry Slam image to go with what promises to be an electric ongoing feature.
CEASE INSANE DIVISIONAL SPLITZ KTHX. If the Big Ten expands, Michigan and Ohio State will be in the same division:
"I think what’s probably most important is that you play them every year,” Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said Tuesday from the Big Ten spring meetings. “For us, it’s always been at the end and that’s always had a great buildup and excitement to that, so you would think that would be part of the conversation. But there’s a lot of factors in play. I have not put a lot of thought into it.”
Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith said that issue is “very important” to him.
“At the end of the day when I look at things quantifiably, I’ll determine how hard I jump on the table,” Smith said. “But I can’t say for sure how high a table I’ll jump on. I have to wait and see.”
I have no idea what the hell Smith means by that but I'm sure if it's translated from Buckeye it means "beer fire bad. Michigan-Ohio State rivalry good." Bloggers still creating wildly impractical expansion scenarios—losers—can cut out the ones where Michigan and Ohio State do not play every year.
Getting way ahead of ourselves. Penn State rotates off the schedule next year along with all nonconference road games. (Also Purdue.) Minnesota and Northwestern return. The resulting schedule looks… well, it looks as easy as these things get short of moving to the WAC:
2011 Michigan Football Schedule
|Sept. 3||Western Michigan|
|Sept. 10||Notre Dame|
|Sept. 17||Eastern Michigan|
|Sept. 24||San Diego State|
|Oct. 8||at Wisconsin|
|Oct. 15||Indiana (Homecoming)|
|Oct. 22||at Michigan State|
|Oct. 29||at Iowa|
|Nov. 19||at Northwestern|
|Nov. 26||Ohio State|
Eight home games, no Penn State, OSU and ND at home: that will be a put up or shut up type of schedule.
I don't understand why people keep falling out of the boat when I push more in. Hardcore Michigan recruitniks will have a vague recollection of Star Jackson, the dual-threat quarterback who was briefly on Michigan's radar during Rodriguez's first-month quarterback scramble that landed Justin Feagin and whiffed on Pryor, BJ Daniels, and everyone else. Jackson was committed to Alabama and stayed committed despite the Michigan offer. Today, he's announcing a transfer.
As far as Crimson Tide transfers go this one is near the bottom on the sketchiness scale: Jackson was third-string after spring practice and the Tide have hyped incoming freshman Phillip Sims joining the team this fall. Quarterbacks have a hair trigger these days when it comes to transfers. Even so, it takes a robot to say this with a straight face:
"We hate to see any player leave the program, but quarterback's kind of a unique position where one guy can play, and we have a lot of competition there right now. Greg's the starter coming back, AJ has done a fantastic job of improving, Phillip Sims came in at mid-semester and showed a lot of promise this spring."
Alabama oversigned by ten this February. Yes, again. They have six more guys to go. Jackson battled an academic suspension in spring, and given the state of the depth chart you have to wonder how invested Alabama was in getting him through that.
Now: which offensive lineman who isn't panning out will get a medical scholarship?
This is a problem? Apparently the one person on the planet with both a deep personal animosity towards the San Diego State football program and a connection to Michigan is Tate Forcier:
Honestly, San Diego State is a team right in my backyard and they didn’t show me any love or attention. Coach (Chuck) Long didn’t pay much attention to me, which was surprising because I showed some interest in them.
Son of a bitch. Grab the influenza and burn the boats: there's an indigenous group of homicidal, gold-hoarding polytheists to beat by at least three points.
Actually: maybe David Underwood also hates SDSU. Maybe he blames it all on them.
Zinger. Rodriguez speaking about the ACC's Big East raid, which happened while he was the coach at WVU:
“I think it caught a few institutions off guard and it probably institutionally taught a few lessons that, hey, we better be prepared for that the next time,” Rodriguez said. “I don’t know all the factors, but I’m sure there’s a few more buy-ins and buy-outs and things like that. I know all about buy-outs."
Zing! Wait, he zinged himself. Someone at this to the list of Rodriguez Humiliations that will be read over the loudspeaker before every game this fall.
Etc.: Even more python parsing of MGoBlog reveals that the words "Harbaugh," "mom," and "penetration" have each been deployed exactly 128 times. Isn't that was the Les Miles rumor? So much for python. Maize n Blue Nation gets detailed on the new turf. Beilein is heading overseas with the team if they can work something out.
[Ed: This week's Mathlete column expands on fourth down decision-making. I haven't seen a graph anywhere near as clear as those included below about how shifting the parameters of the offenses and defenses in question makes major impact on what a correct decision is. This is not a situation where you can just read the decision off a chart. Feel and personal preference will always play a role. It's a complex decision.]
Last week I wrote on the value of special teams but a very interesting side topic arose: fourth down decision making. It started with this chart:
About which I remarked:
The going for it actually peaks between 30 and 35 as more coaches don’t really know what to do so they just go for it.
So I decided to look and see what the decision chart should look like on an expected points basis.
Anything close to two different colors is a virtual toss-up. Any gains near a color transition are negligible and not worth noting, but there are very real gains to be made in the heart of the yellow section, where coaches are taking their offenses off of the field far too quickly.
A couple of quick rules of thumb:
- Don’t punt on the opponent’s side of the field.
- Really consider going for it on 4th down after crossing your own 40.
- Field goals only make sense if there are more than 5 yards to go and you are between the 10 and 30 yard lines. If you’re in opponent territory and these two criteria aren’t true, you should be going for it.
I know this is not the first time a topic like this has been presented, David Romer was mostly criticized for his paper on the topic a couple years back (thanks for the reminder Colin). [Ed: Not around here.] Of course there was the great Patriot debate last season when the Patriots elected to go for it on 4th and 2 with the lead in their own territory. Even though the majority of the arguments against this work amount to "people like David Romer and The Mathlete don’t know anything about football and just live in their parent’s basement" I did want to look at the main objections and see if they had any validity.
Objection 1: Does not account for “quick change” momentum
Below you’ll see a chart of the expected points on a drive based on field position, and how teams have actually fared. I also included drives obtained by turnover as comparison to the other “quick change” drive source.
There could be a case that drives started on a short field due to a 4th down stop generate more points than normal drives, but the small sample size reduces how strongly that argument can be made. From 2007-2009, the total points accounted for on drives obtained by 4th down stops (2523) is less than the projected points would be for any drives starting at the same field position (2580). This difference is meaningless statistically, something very damaging to the idea "momentum" helps the opposing offense after their defense gets a fourth down stop.
Adding in the turnovers does nothing to build a case for momentum after big defensive stops or turnovers. The turnover-started drive line tightly hugs the average line. As a whole, the turnover expected points line is slightly higher than the average line, but only by enough to generate an extra touchdown every 50 drives. That's about one every two years or so.
Although it can often feel like there is a big momentum swing after a big stop or turnover, there is scant evidence that it is more than our memories selecting the most traumatic or exhilarating scenes to hold onto. [Ed: for an example of this human tendency to ascribe meaning to unusual events where there is none, see any of the zillion "hot hand" studies.]
Objection 2: It assumes all offenses and defenses are average
To get a gauge on what “good” can mean in comparison to average, I plotted the best offense and best defense of the last three years against the average team’s expected points per drive.
As a rough approximation, the best offense is about a 1 point per drive better than average and the best defense makes offenses about a point worse per drive.
Scenario 1: Good offense
If your offense is as good as Florida, you should never punt against an average defense. Maybe if you are deep in your own territory, but only in the most extreme situations. This assumes that a new first down gives the Florida offense an extra point over an average team in expected value and a 10 percentage point increase in the likelihood that they convert.
A punt is conceding any chance of scoring and an offense this good should not give up that right so easily. This is the basic philosophy behind the vaunted no punting HS coach in Arkansas. His team isn’t necessary good because he doesn’t punt. He doesn’t punt because his offense is good. Why waste another scoring opportunity?
Scenario 2: Going against a good defense
Playing against a good defense changes the dynamic extensively but it does not mean forgoing the fourth down attempt altogether. With a reduced likelihood of success on 4th down and a reduced payout if the conversion is successful, the 4th down attempt still is an optimal strategy more than is currently utilized. Even against a top national defense, you should still not punt in opponent territory. The field goal becomes a more viable option against the stronger defense and punting becomes a much better idea all the way out to midfield.
[Ed: I think this is moving towards correct strategy since it takes a caveman or a seriously long-yardage situation for someone to punt from inside the opponent's 40 these days. That range from midfield to the opponent 40 is a spot we might see move towards fourth-down aggression in the next few years.
Also note that coventional current strategy gets way less wrong once you ramp up the ability of the defense. If we jacked it up even farther, it might get to the point where punting from the 36 (or even on third down) is a good idea. The flaws in strategy here are leftovers from an era when punting was actually the best option. Thinking has not kept pace with scoring since.]
Scenarios 3/4: Good defense or opponent good offense
The conventional wisdom is that if you trust your defense, you don’t go for it on fourth down. [Ed: In my experience the conventional wisdom is remarkably malleable on this point. If you have a good D and the announcer agrees with the call, the good D will be cited as a reason why.] In reality, the strength of your own defense (or the strength of the opposing offense) is largely irrelevant to the decision. Fourth down decisions are all about offensive opportunity. A 4th down decision to punt is the decision to take the ball out of your offense’s hand, leaving the relative impacts on your defense to negate each other. A 4th down failure puts your defense in a worse situation, but it doesn’t guarantee points for the other team; a good defense is still a major asset in stopping or limiting the other team with good field position. A punt doesn’t guarantee that the other team is going to be stopped, but a good defense makes it more likely. In the end, it’s still all about the offense.
Objection 3: Does not account for game specific situations
This objection does ring true, but its application is much narrower than most people believe. The main flaw with the expected points model is that for most of the game all points are largely equal but at the end of the game, a field goal or even time can become crucially important. If a field goal can tie a game, take the lead, or move said lead from one possession to two (or vice-versa), the decision-making process suggested above can shift radically. This could mean punting near midfield to prevent a short field goal drive for the other team or taking a field goal instead going for it on fourth in field goal range.
These situations are rare, however, and only come into effect in the fourth quarter. When there are likely to be even 2-3 additional possessions, the expected points model still holds up.
Another potential game situation not accounted for above is the presence of a high quality field goal kicker. A very accurate field goal kicker will move the blue field goal “bubble” in the above charts down, making fields more practical in short yardage situations. An above average kicker from long range will move the bubble left. Even a great kicker won’t make kicking inside the 5 practical in very many situations.
Conclusion: In Which Romer Is Re-Iterated
Teams need to be using kickers and punters less and their offenses more. Especially teams with good offenses. If you have a good offense, bringing out the punter should only be done in long distance situations or when deep in your own territory. Scoring touchdowns is the valuable thing in football and giving away a quarter of your plays to kick on fourth down greatly reduces your ability to score them, the gain in field position from a punt is worth less than it is currently perceived to be and the idea that momentum is obtained from a quick change of possession is to be slight at best and most likely non-existent.
One final thought I haven’t been able to quantify yet: if you switch to a fourth down mindset, what opportunities does it open up in play calling during the first three downs of a series. Planning on four plays for a first down instead of three would surely have some value for an offense to adjust and re-optimize their play calling, and the total offensive value could become even greater.
Note: apparently Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats and I have been having some of the same offseason thoughts as he just put up another piece on 4th down decision making, and this after we both introduced similar defensive player evaluation metrics within a month of each other.
|Lauderdale Lakes, FL - 6'1" 175|
|Scout||4*, #19 S, #203 overall|
|Rivals||4*, #13 S, #162 overall|
|ESPN||5*, 85, #2 S, 12 overall|
|Others||#102 overall to TAKKLE.|
|Other Suitors||Florida, Florida State, Tennessee, USC, Miami|
|Previously On MGoBlog||Commitment post. Tom interviews Dorsey. Drew Sharp fiasco. Bogus JUCO journey?|
More, featuring actual things on the field:
There is also an ESPN interview in which Dorsey and another Gator commit talk up Florida. Oops. Surprisingly for such a touted recruit, there isn't much in the way of high school highlights lying around.
You've probably heard as much or more about Demar Dorsey than any Michigan recruit of recent vintage, but very little of it has been about his ability to, you know, play football. This post is going to assume you're aware of Dorsey's checkered past, the Detroit media's dogpile upon that checkered past, and the he's-going-to-JUCO-no-he-isn't-yes-he-is saga of about a month ago. There's a significant chance this is wasted effort—just today we got the news that there will be news on Dorsey in a few weeks— but the tabs are open so here we go.
Dorsey is kind of a big deal, having committed to Florida by March of 2009—just a month into the recruiting year. By that time he'd also picked up offers from Wisconsin, Miami, Florida State, and North Carolina. The Big Three instate by March is a level of interest in a Florida recruit Michigan has not seen in the Rich Rodriguez era. When Dorsey opened his recruitment up USC and Tennessee hopped in. Dorsey could have gone anywhere in the country.
Those offers were prompted by an incredibly FAKE 4.25 40 at the Under Armor combine he attended midway through his junior year. That 4.25 followed a 4.31. Even if fake, Dorsey's number was the best at a loaded combine and came with a 4.19 shuttle and 40-inch vertical leap. Remember those pictures of Denard Robinson housing fools en route to a 10.44 100 meters that he thought was disappointing? Yeah: that was big news in Florida because Robinson upset his cousin Dorsey. Dorsey was expected to be faster than Denard Robinson. This was because he'd previously busted out a 10.3 100.
Offers flowed like water, undeterred by the commitment. With good reason: it was so soft as to hardly exist, with Dorsey invariably claiming he was somewhere between 65 and 90 percent Gator whenever asked. After even more highly touted safety-type recruit Matt Elam completed his UF-FSU-UF oscillation Florida asked Dorsey to firm up his commit and cease visiting elsewhere. When he didn't, the parties parted ways. Just a couple weeks before that, Dorsey had been talking up Florida to recruits at the Under Armor game. I mean, seriously:
"It was a great day to be a Gator," said Fort Lauderdale Boyd Anderson cornerback Demar Dorsey, one of nine future UF players in the game. "If you weren't a Gator today, you were gator bait. We had interceptions, a couple forced fumbles, some touchdowns. We did a little bit of everything."
After an erroneous report Dorsey had committed to Florida State—check that: many persistent erroneous reports—Dorsey eventually picked Michigan on signing day at a press conference so long that it has taken its place in the hallowed land of Prime Recruitnik Intervention Material a mere three months after it transpired. His recruitment was strange, except it seems like there are four or five kids every year who have similar stories. It was in the genre of strange, then.
After all that, though, Dorsey doesn't check in as the world-destroying prospect you would expect… except on ESPN. Rivals and Scout both rank him in the 150-200-ish range. For comparison, that's where redshirt freshman DE and national non-story Anthony LaLota ended up last year. That's a good prospect who would look nice in just about anyone's class. It's not a ranking worthy of a ninja recruit who can cover three zones at the same time.
Twelfth overall is world-destroying, though, and that's where ESPN put him. Their rationale:
…has very good size and could even put on some bulk and not lose any of his speed or quickness. As a defensive back he is the entire package; a great blend of skill and natural talent. Very fast on run support with excellent closing speed. Gets to the ball carrier in a hurry and delivers the wood when he hits. Really explodes on contact and drives the legs throughout he tackle; really punishes the ball carrier. Changes directions fluidly and has loose hips to turn and run without a loss of speed. Displays leaping ability and goes up to high point the football and possesses soft and reliable hands in bringing it down. … Wins all the jump ball contests and is a real running threat to bring the ball back due to his speed and running abilities. Can play the strong and free position with equal talent but is a real intimidating force as a free safety where all of his talents can be utilized even though he can play man to man with the receiver in his zone. …an exceptional athlete that will be even more of a dynamic football player with some lower body bulk and strength.
Hello, nurse. Caveat: as mentioned, Dorsey tore up the turf at the UA combine and immediately agreed to play in the ESPN-sponsored UA game. The WWL has a tendency to puff up the prospects they get their claws on. Not to the extent where 12th nationally isn't worth a cocked eyebrow, but it's worth a mention.
Other sites agree with the bits about how he is a crazy athlete. Other than one negative assessment from Mike Farrell ("didn't separate well or show great ball skills… change of direction didn't scream cornerback") after Florida's Friday Night Lights camp, where he played receiver, it's all stuff like this:
The Florida Gators definitely got a freak athlete in Dorsey. He looks every bit of 6-1 and he is long, rangy and wiry strong. He is raw in coverage and he is not quite there yet as far as his technique and instincts but he has a ton of tools to work with. He is extremely quick twitch and he has phenomenal recovery speed and athleticism.
And this from Barton Simmons:
It's no secret that Dorsey has special speed and athleticism, but his skills translated very effectively to football ability. Though he wants to be a cornerback, safety is really the spot for him on defense. He has great range and has better than average mobility and fluidity. As a downhill player, he demonstrated some real physicality, providing probably the hit of the day from the safety position. Dorsey also lined up some on offense and he is extremely dangerous on that side of the ball as well. As a vertical threat he is a terrifying matchup.
As athletic as any player in the country with his combination of great size, frame, speed, and first step quickness. He's further ahead athletically than as a player. He can get caught turning the wrong way, has trouble getting off blocks, and is sloppy in his tackling form, but with the ball in his hands on returns and letting his instincts as an athlete takeover, he show’s that he’s special. Definition of an upside recruit.
Dorsey flashed the talents he has, but still could have had a bigger impact on the game. Two separate times he went over the top of a receiver streaking down the sidelines to help from his free safety position, had he undercut the receiver those two plays (like he did on the INT) he could have come up with another interception and a big time hit. Dorsey proved the tools are there, it is just a matter of refining them to become a great free safety.
You get the idea.
At Michigan (knock on wood), Dorsey will start at corner. He is fine with this:
"All the schools have said they want me to play on both sides of the ball," he said. "I think I can play any position in the defensive backfield. I can play receiver on the other side of the ball.
"Whatever the team needs is where I want to play," he added.
This makes sense in the context of Michigan's needs and Dorsey's immense physical talents: cornerback is equivalent of tailback on defense, a spot where a talented freshman can come in and play as a freshman. Michigan's seen Leon Hall, Donovan Warren, Charles Woodson, Marlin Jackson, and many others come in with little more than the ability to run ridiculously fast. All have survived, if not excelled. Safety is much more complicated and Michigan is determined to let the Cam Gordon Safety Explosion play out.
As for the academics, a January newspaper article published his ACT score (18) and bluntly stated he "will be qualified," but if Rich Rodriguez is publicly stating that there will be news in a few weeks that qualification remains something that happens in the future. The premium sites are at odds, with Rivals declaring there is very little chance Dorsey qualifies and Scout considerably less strident. They're not exactly brimming with confidence, though. If you put a gun to my head, I'd say Fort Scott CC fans are going to get more use out of this post than y'all. That is a prediction made of 100% speculation: please no panic.
Why Leon Hall? Because I can't compare him to a guy who's currently a sophomore quarterback, right? And I can't compare him to Charles Woodson, peace be upon him, because even if You May Remember Me From Such Players As is not supposed to be a prediction of overall talent there are some things not broached even when it comes to hypothetical playing style comparisons.
Hall, then: a four-star in about the same range as Dorsey on Scout and Rivals, Hall arrived at Michigan a fairly big corner—though he's not as tall as Dorsey—and broke into the starting lineup as a freshman, developed into an All Big Ten corner and Thorpe finalist, and then burned up the track at the NFL combine, laying down a 4.38 in the one environment where you can't yell FAKE. He's currently pretty good, yo.
Guru Reliability: High. Can't be very high because one service is wildly enthusiastic and the others are just plain ol' enthusiastic, but the disagreement is just about technique issues that should
General Excitement Level: Either ridiculously high or nothing. Someone get this man a Kaplan tutor stat.
Projection: If he gets to campus he'll be thrown in the secondary blender immediately and probably see time as a backup or in a nickel package depending on how good Cullen Christian is. Redshirt exceedingly unlikely. Will he get to campus? Ask again later. Actually, don't.