needs moar usage
Things other than aigh Will Campbell that happened over the break.
Basketball failed to implode spectacularly.
…probably. They've got winless North Carolina Central (Kenpom rank: #344 of 344) tonight. Kenpom predicts a final score of 96-49 and gives NCC a 0% chance of victory. It does not appear to be the height of hubris to predict a win.
The opponents since the watershed Duke game:
EMU and Oakland. These games were very similar to each other: Michigan plays a significant amount of uninspired basketball but is bailed out by smoking hot three-point shooting. It was 16 of 33 against Eastern and 13 of 29 against Oakland. Neither opponent could keep up with Michigan once the threes started falling (and, in Oakland's case, theirs stopped falling).
Of note in both these games: Michigan went to the 1-3-1 for brief periods in the first half, got torn apart, and spent the rest of the game in man-to-man. In the Oakland game the 1-3-1 was a very brief cameo indeed, as it was present for all of one possession—an Oakland layup—and was quickly shelved. Theory: there's some adjustment that prevents the layup line the 1-3-1 became against EMU but Beilein's vertigo-induced absence prevented that from being applied and Michigan just went to a standard defense against generally overmatched foes.
Oakland center Keith Benson used the man-to-man to go crazy, hitting nine of eleven shots and having a career game. It wasn't necessarily that the defense was bad, either; often times Benson was well defended only to hit a tough shot.
Reed Baker and the Rainmakers. Due to holiday travel I missed this one and it sounds like I should be glad I did. Michigan shot very poorly, but forced a zillion FGCU turnovers and limped to an ugly victory over a bad team.
And notes for the future:
Minutes what? Laval Lucas-Perry becomes eligible, looks a lot like Bernie Mac, and hits a lot of threes. He's played 36 minutes in two games. Where are these minutes coming from? One obvious location: Anthony Wright has gotten two DNP-CDs since LLP shed his suit. But the other obvious location—walk-ons—not so much. Merritt and Lee have combined to average 25 minutes per game.
Wha? Well, Michigan is using Perry at the 2 and 3 and giving all point guard minutes to either Merritt or Grady. The two have combined for 79 minutes in the last two games: one or the other is always on the floor. Everyone was selling LLP as a combo guard or a scoring point; Michigan isn't even giving him a chance to be the best point guard since Magic Johnson.
The two possibilities here are
- LLP isn't actually any sort of point and Michigan will never play him there.
- Michigan's trying to work LLP in slowly and will start giving him point guard minutes as he gets more comfortable actually being on the floor.
I really hope it's #2; no offense to Merritt but he's a walk-on for a reason.
Minutes what part two. Okay, so LLP isn't taking Merritt's minutes. Fine. Question: why isn't Kelvin Grady? There is nothing Grady isn't statistically superior to Merritt in except a couple of things with extremely low sample sizes:
|Player||ARate||TORate||Usage||2PT FG%||3PT FG%|
Merritt's superior two point FG percentage is based on ten shots, and that usage rate is insanely low—way lower than even CJ Lee—so those should be almost entirely easy shots.
Unless Merritt's just way, way better on defense, which I concede may be true, there's no reasonable case he should be playing anything more than 5-10 minutes a game when Grady needs a breather.
Side note: how about that 43% on three pointers from Grady? We're still subject to a small sample size disclaimer, but dang, man. That's a seven-point jump from last year's meh 36%, and it makes him someone you have to get out on, which is dangerous because he's ninja-quick. If only he could make a layup.
Manny! I'm going to be the last person on earth to note how freakin' good Manny Harris is, but this, I think, is the key number: 33.2. Oh, and 31.6. And 17.3. These items are:
- 33.2. Harris's assist rate, which is insane for a small forward, 13 points higher than last year's, by far the best on the team, and 62nd nationally. Also helping out: Harris' TO rate has dropped from 22.0 to 18.6.
- 31.6. Harris's usage rate, which is insane for anyone—26th nationally—and actually higher than his very high usage from a year ago.
- 17.3. Harris' defensive rebound rate, which is easily second-best on the team and a major reason the rebounding numbers are not worse than they are.
Before the season I sounded a note of caution on expectations for Harris as his freshman year had the distinct whiff of Bracey Wright to it. (I've done this twice, actually.) That whiff is gone. Harris has been maniacally efficient despite sporting an enormous usage rate. This was my hope before the season:
I hope in March we're here looking at scoring average going down a little bit but those field goal numbers going up a lot; we'll see.
Harris said "how about more usage and more efficiency" and I said "I wish to clone you every four years if that is okay with you sir." That is stardom, and it's a quantum leap forward from his freshman year.
Things other than aigh Will Campbell that happened over the break.
Hockey won the GLI.
Yay, divers alarums and all that but unlike most years, when a GLI win would entail a victory over at least one tourney-bound opponent, Michigan beat the last place team in the WCHA and the last place team in the CCHA. It's good they did so, and did so in dominating fashion, but this was a must-win situation for a team currently flirting with missing the tourney more than a big step forward.
Some items on the State game (yrs truly was sleeping in a car during the Tech game):
This is the third game I've seen Michigan play State and it's still stunning just how bad they are. There were three separate shifts where State got stuck in its own end for a minute and a half against Ciraulo, Glendening, and Fardig. The fourth line. The fourth line when two of Michigan's forwards are at the WJC. It's not surprising that Lerg faced more than 100 shots on the weekend.
Could this be it for Comley? He's two years removed from a national championship, which no matter how fluky it was remains a national championship. On the other hand, State is beyond terrible. Their recruiting must have fallen off a cliff, though it's hard to tell in college hockey. They did bring in a first-round draft pick in Daultan Leveille this year (and Leveille is third on the team with… eight points) but Leveille was from the lightly-scouted and lightly-recruited GOJHL, a junior B league a level below the BCHL or OPJHL. While this is a triumph of scouting for State to get on this kid early, it's not exactly a battle won against Michigan, North Dakota, etc etc etc. Just look at the NTDP recruiting: Michigan has eight guys coming in over the next two years and State has two, one of whom is the backup to M recruit Jeff Campbell and the other is Austin Czarnik, the 5'8" cousin of Robbie. Czarnik's doing well this year (8-6-14, tied for 3rd on the team in scoring) but Michigan has Merrill, Moffatt, Jacob Fallon, and Kevin Clare plus Campbell lined up from that year's team.
Comley's old and seems to be flagging; State should probably give him the heave-ho this year or things could seriously slide.
Meanwhile, on Michigan's side of things: If you're looking for a breakout player of the second half it's got to be Brandon Burlon. He was slowed by an ankle injury early, then struggled a bit with rust; of late he's been doing a lot of things that you have to be ridiculously talented to do. In the State game he leapt up into the slot, pounced on a loose puck, and effortlessly labeled one top corner to force a good glove save out of Lerg. In the previous two State games he had a sick end-to-end rush goal and a critical assist when he leapt into the play, created a two on one, and set up an easy, tying tap-in for Hagelin.
Burlon doesn't have Jack Johnson's size or hatred of all living things on skates, but he might have something approximating his puck skills. He's going to blow up in the second half of the season.
Runner-up in this category: Robbie Czarnik, who's either Milan Gajic or Kevin Porter at this point. Both got, and flubbed, a zillion chances as underclassmen. Porter blossomed into the Hobey winner and a surefire NHLer; Gajic squeezed his stick into sawdust and left Michigan the ultimate tease of a hockey player. For Czarnik's sake and mine I hope the pucks start going in.
Louie? I'm still confused about Louie Caporusso, an obviously good hockey player who seemingly has no business leading the nation in goals by four. He's small. He doesn't have the ridiculous dangle of a Hensick or Comrie, nor does he have the ability to teleport from one end of the ice to the other like Tambellini or Cogliano, nor does he have Tambellini's laser wrist shot. He seems pretty good at all these things, just not great. And yet: 18 goals, and a crazy PPG mark as a freshman that was obscured by an injury that held him out a third of the season.
The nearest thing I can figure is that Caporusso is some sort of crazy anticipatory genius who finds open spots on the ice and uses his extremely accurate shot to make the best of things when the puck comes to him. His latest goal (above) against Michigan State, wherein he schooled Leopold Buttery Stotch and came in on Lerg, was perhaps the best example of this to date: Caporusso was travelling at high speed about two inches from Lerg and managed to roof the puck. The angle involved was very narrow. Maybe Caporusso has that Ryan Smyth ability to put himself in open spots and put pucks exactly where he wants them? I will make it my mission to find this out.
Scooter. Scratched with the return of Kampfer. Harsh, man… I thought surely it would be Pateryn or Llewellyn—who is taking a lot of foolish penalties—in the suit. Scooter did make a couple critical errors in the State game at Munn (he was the guy who pinched and yielded the two-on-one that led to State's first goal in that game), I guess. Competition for playing time on D is going to be brutal for the remainder of the season.
Hogan. I guess he's the man, man. I didn't think he was playing any better than Sauer when the two platooned, and the stats back that up. But he's clearly not playing any worse, and when you have these two guys as your options…
- Guy with GAA around 2.0 and save percentage around .910 with no history in NCAA tournament
- Guy with GAA around 2.0 and save percentage around .910 with two consecutive season-killing meltdowns
… you should go with the devil you don't know. No offense to Sauer but I hope we don't see him more than a few times the rest of the year, as that will mean Hogan has continued to play at a high level.
Miami. The upcoming games against Miami—this is hockey, wherein Miami is most definitely not Fake Miami—are the bar-none biggest of the year. Return the sweep Miami inflicted at Goggin and Michigan leaps back into the CCHA race* and gives themselves a significant margin of error as far as making the tourney goes. Get swept again and it will be tooth and nail for a first-round bye in the CCHA playoffs and a tourney bid. Split and eh.
January 9th and 10th: big.
*(Five points back with two games in hand, though Notre Dame remains way far ahead and Michigan would almost definitely have to sweep them in a home-and-home at the end of January to have any chance of winning the league. In all likelihood the regular season title is gone and Michigan is fighting for a first-round bye and secure tourney bid the rest of the way, but sweep the #1 and #2 teams in the country and we're in it, yo!)
Will Campbell flew down to the Army All-American game yesterday and dropped a bomb on Michigan fans:
Although Campbell still denies a leader and maintains he favors Miami, Michigan, LSU, Alabama and Florida, in-state favorite Michigan now seems like a long shot. "I'm really looking to get away from here," Campbell said. "I liked my other visits and I'm thinking of seeing something new. I'm thinking about leaving Michigan."
He repeated this to a number of other people (one example); it's no fluke. Commence red alert and all that, OMG death etc etc etc. Then last night mods on the premium sites started posting items that ranged from cautiously suggesting Michigan probably isn't 100% out to "Campbell is coming to Michigan, but I will use my infuriating pidgin to communicate this."
The great hope here is that Campbell is attempting to add drama to a recruitment long considered a foregone conclusion even before a William Campbell showed up in the Michigan directory on the same day Tate Forcier, Vincent Smith, and the rest of Michigan's early-enrolling squad of folks did.
Is this a plausible hope? Eh… maybe. The Campbell recruitment is different than that of Nick Perry or Ronald Johnson. There was never any consensus on Perry's destination. Johnson was supposedly a Michigan lock but that information was solely provided by moderators at the premium sites and never had any outside corroboration. In Campbell's case we've had reports from random people about conversations with Campbell or his teammates or people close to the situation that indicated he was coming to Michigan. There's a ton of evidence out there, and even if that "evidence" is the shaky anonymous internet variety it's prolific enough that it seems credible.
But it's really hard to look direct quotes in the face and conclude they mean nothing. If Campbell was looking to inject drama into his decision, he's succeeded.
FYI: If you need that sweet, sweet content there are a couple recruiting posts below this one.
So I got two MGoChristmas images in the inbox. One is some serious M dedication:
(Click for big.)
And the other, well:
(If you need some background on this check out the Vicious Electronic Questioning with Brian Stouffer. And sit down. And maybe hire a lawyer.)
Merry Christmas to all, and to all a second quarterback recruit in the 2009 recruiting class. See you on the 29th.
Update 12/22: Linked to articles on OH CB Mike Edwards, SC DE Sam Montgomery, LA DE Bennie Logan, TX WR Josh Gordon, FL DE Pernell McPhee, MI DT Will Campbell, AZ OL commit Taylor Lewan, video of NC OL Travis Bond. Pictures of Justin Turner's Army Bowl press conference.
Added OH OL Henry Conway, FL LB Willie Ferrell, LA WR Travante Stallworth.
Removed VA OL Morgan Moses, LA WR Rueben Randle, FL S Angelo Handley (UNC), MD DE Jason Ankrah (Neb), TX QB Shavodrick Beaver.
2010 stuff: article on MI WR Baquer Sayed.
Editorial Opinion: Recruiting board lives here. We've discussed the fallout from the Beaver decommitment in a post earlier today; now onto the rest of the story.
Minor panic over the past week because Will Campbell wasn't talking much after his visit to Florida combined with minor panic about the effect of Scott Shafer's departure on defensive recruits, particularly Campbell teammate and safety commit Thomas Gordon, to create moderate indigestion on the part of Michigan fans who pay a little too much attention to recruiting. (Guilty as charged.)
Some antacid for your ulcers. Here's Campbell on the Shafer departure:
"It really doesn't affect me because my defensive line coach is still there," Campbell said, speaking of U-M assistant Bruce Tall, who also attended the banquet. "It also doesn't affect me at all because I don't know where I'm going. Even if I was still committed there, it probably wouldn't make a difference because my coach is still there."
To summarize in three words: good… bad… okay.
Also, on Sam Webb's Friday recruiting podcast he mentioned having talked to Campbell and did not get a vibe to be worried about. Campbell's final official visit took place over the weekend at Miami; he decides January 3rd at an All-Star game.
There's been a lot of gushing about Taylor Lewan behind paywalls, and while there's always a lot of gushing on the premium sites after anyone commits this particular gushing has a different tenor than most. ESPN's released some gushing of its own to the plebes, so take a look:
Lewan's development into a top-15 offensive tackle has been nothing short of amazing. We feel Michigan is getting an offensive lineman with perhaps the best upside we have seen at the position in recent years. The coach who helped mold him into the upper-echelon positional prospect he is today agrees.
"He's as good athletically as any guy I have ever coached," Ragle said. "The thing that makes him so special is his upside when you think he's only been coached at the position for about eight months. But the one intangible that's most impressive is his nastiness --Taylor wants to bury someone on every play, and you can't coach that."
This praise has gone above and beyond the run of the mill stuff I've seen in a half-dozen years with the recruiting sickness, and the bolded praise above comes from an entirely neutral observer at Scouts, Inc., not one of the guys on Michigan's premium sites*. Lewan's obviously got some weight and technique work to do, which is the reason he trails a number of other prospects at tackle despite having that upside; he's a guy to get excited about anyway.
*(This is not to say a guy like Josh Helmholdt won't give it to you straight about a prospect, but it's natural to be a little skeptical of fawning praise from someone affiliated with a school site.)
Back to Stallworth.
You're not alone if you got a Michigan vibe from Tom VanHaaren's interview with LA WR Travante Stallworth. A number of Auburn recruits committed to the Tigers with the idea they'd be playing in Tony Franklin's "Spread Eagle" offense, among them Stallworth, and they can't like the sound of this:
That could change when Chizik hires an offensive coordinator. Chizik emphasized his plans to re-establish a smashmouth brand of offense at Auburn.
The previous regime recruited most of the offensive recruits to run the spread offense. There are three specific players that could struggle to run a more traditional offense - receivers Brandon Heavens, LaVoyd James and Travante Stallworth. All three are 5-foot-10, and none weigh more than 180 pounds.
Geez, newspaper guy, way to call out specific kids and tell them they're not fits for their current commitments. Tiger fans appreciate it, I'm sure.
A relevant passage from Stallworth's interview:
TRAVANTE: Well, they [Auburn] fired the staff too, and I was real close to the TE/WR coach. I haven’t talked to anybody from Auburn since. My recruiting coordinator got fired, but he called me yesterday. That’s the only person I’ve talked to.
TOM: So what schools are you most interested in right now?
TRAVANTE: I’m highly interested in Michigan, I’m real interested in South Carolina, and I’m kind of interested in TCU.
Stallworth allows for the possibility of a commitment on a visit, and sounds like one of the better citizens available this recruiting cycle. He's a three-star guy to Scout and Rivals, but ESPN gives him an 80 (equivalent to a mid-to-high four star) and has high praise for him. He'd be a good pickup in the slot, which could use another player now that RB has taken a couple hits and a guy like Teric Jones might see his future in the backfield.
The other other guy who catches the ball.
TX WR Josh Gordon's story is a weird one: he, along with Bryce McNeal, was the best wideout at last year's Army All-America combine according to Rivals. He then repeatedly, publicly stated he wanted a Michigan offer and would commit if he got one. Then he got two stars from the recruiting services and started talking about Baylor. No, Baylor:
"It was real nice," Gordon said. "I was actually really surprised by how nice it was. They have real good facilities and everything was state-of-the-art, which I wasn't expecting. I didn't think it'd be that good of a football environment, but I guess this is the "new" Baylor they said."
Can you dance at "new" Baylor? Probably not. And Josh Gordon loves dancing. Anyway, with Michigan in search of an outside receiver sort they're getting back in Gordon's recruitment:
"I'm getting an in-home visit from some (Michigan) coaches this week," he said.
"I like Michigan because they are rebuilding their offense and have been recruiting me a lot more lately," he said. "I think I'd have a good chance to play early there and get the offense there going."
Gordon says he hopes that Michigan offers next week because he doesn't plan on waiting for the Wolverines much longer. "If they offer me this week then great," he said. "I'll take a visit there and see what it's like. If not, I'm just gonna focus on the ones I have offers from and move on."
That was a week ago and there's been no update on whether he got that offer, or indication he'll visit. Could be off the radar because of Christmas and all that; he'll be a guy to watch in the new year. I'll be interested to see how his recruitment, and his career, play out.
It appears that Glenville cornerback Mike Edwards has given up on the idea of an Ohio State offer:
While Edwards was impressed with his Cincinnati visit, he said he will at least make official visits to Michigan and Tennessee before selecting a college. Edwards has scholarship offers on the table from those three schools as well as Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and others. If he were to land an offer from Ohio State he would definitely visit the Buckeyes.
So that's top three for Edwards, a borderline four-star at a position of need. I'm still skeptical anyone from Glenville will sign with Michigan until Ted Ginn Sr is elsewhere.
Etc.: JUCO FL DE Pernell McPhee did not sign yet.
This was going to be a part of Monday Recruitin' but deserves its own post.
So: we're down to one quarterback commit. Rodriguez has a month or so to latch on to another one, though, and a number of attractive targets:
VA QB Tajh Boyd originally committed to West Virginia, but decommitted during WVU's season, probably right after he saw the Bill Stewart Face. He then committed to Tennessee only for Lane Kiffin to say "seeya" as soon as he took the helm. Since he got back on the market he visited Ohio State, generating strong rumors of a future commitment, and plans on visiting Oregon.
Can Michigan get in on a guy they were never really involved with in the first place? They'll certainly try. It might not matter much; ironically given the circumstances of his Tennessee situation, Boyd decommitted WVU in search of a place that would throw the ball more and (hypothetically) better prepare him for the NFL. Can Rodriguez convince him he's interested in throwing the ball more? You'd think so given that his other two quarterbacks are Threet and Forcier, but public perception is hard to change.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: Negative. Boyd his higher rated by everyone.
Chance M picks him up: Seems a long shot at this point. M can really sell opportunity here, though.
FL QB Eugene Smith is currently committed to West Virginia, so you know he must like the offense. He was on the board for a long time even after the Beaver/Newsome commits, and then still remained on the board after the Newsome/Forcier swap. He's got a longstanding relationship with the Michigan staff—I believe Calvin Magee is the main guy—and kind-of sort-of seemed to be favoring Michigan at points despite the scholarship situation. Then he committed to WVU a month ago.
Could he be open? Well, yes. Smith told a West Virginia radio program this when he announced his commitment:
I don't want to say I'm shutting the door completely. It will all come in due time. Wait till things get settled down and get my grades.
If Smith's door remains open and the vibe he gave off earlier is any indication… well, it's not like that state's opinion of Michigan could get any worse. One possible hindrance: FL WR Steadman Bailey—briefly a Michigan recruit in the summer—is also a WVU commit. But, uh, we've got a spot at outside WR, kid.
This is 100% speculation, but I got a weird Forcier-like feeling during Smith's recruitment; he obviously liked Michigan quite a bit. If he liked it as much as Forcier he would have leapt on an offer earlier, so this is no slam dunk. Still… I would not be surprised if Smith popped up on the radar again and took a visit.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: also negative. Smith is higher rated by everyone, too.
Chance M picks him up: Extremely strong for a guy currently committed to another school, or "not very good at all but we've got a shot." If Smith decides to take a visit I think we've got a pretty solid chance.
MD QB Raymond Cotton is an Auburn decommit mighty displeased by the Chizik hire. Michigan was not involved with him before his commitment, but, hey, I just broke up with my girlfriend what a coincidence you just broke up with your boyfriend do you want to grind on the dance floor here sign this it's a LOI.
Four-star quarterback lists Ole Miss on top
That's the headline of a Rivals article in the aftermath of his decommit, albeit one written a couple days before the Atomic Beaver detonated. Arkansas and Southern Miss are also up high; this guy has the geographical preferences of a guy from Georgia, not Maryland.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: Not insignificant but minor. Cotton's a guy on the three/four star edge and Beaver was generally better regarded. He's good enough to be a viable option, though.
Chance M picks him up: No idea. He's floating out there and Michigan's got an attractive spot open, but he seems set on the SEC.
FL QB Denard Robinson is current uncommitted and may be more of an athlete recruit than a quarterback. Florida and Georgia are both competing for his services but plan to bring him in as a WR/DB and I know you're thinking "ack Feagin can't throw" right now but Robinson is on another level as a recruit. He's a member of the Rivals 250, their second-fastest "athlete" prospect, a member of the ESPN 150…
Robinson and ATH Brandon McGee could be twins in this class as both are about 5'11, very athletic, quick and actually very accomplished passers, but it will take the right offense and coaching staff to commit to them as QB's as opposed to making the move to corner or wide receiver.
…and a four-star cornerback to Scout.
Florida has long been rumored the leader, and the Gators have offered him at quarterback. How honest is that QB offer? Eh… fairly legit, actually. Though Florida already has a QB commit in this class they did not take a QB last year and one of the two they took in 2006, Cameron Newton, is in hot water for stealing (and chucking) some kid's laptop.
Robinson really wants that QB shot and a early playing time. He's serious enough about both that he plans on visiting UCF in January; he will also visit Michigan. West Virginia is another candidate.
Damage to the class if M picks him up: Minimal. Robinson's 6-foot tops and probably not even that so is less of a true QB prospect than Beaver, but a QB offer from Florida is a QB offer from Florida is a QB offer from Florida.
Chance M picks him up: Not good; Florida seems the likely destination. One positive: he's taken his official to Florida and came back uncommitted.
Before you ask: yes, TX QB Tyrik Rollison is a top-100 recruit to Rivals and is a dual threat quarterback floating around uncommitted—you may remember him as the QB who was Not Beaver in the Beaver game televised on ESPN2 this fall—but at last update he had an offer from Colorado State and maybe Baylor and definitely not Oklahoma State. What does this say? It says "very unlikely to qualify" in big flashing red letters. I'm hoping that's not the case and Michigan gets involved; that doesn't seem probable.
There are a couple of uncommitted guys listed as dual threat quarterbacks in the Big Ten area: Dolapo Macarthy is from Merrillville, Indiana, and has an Iowa offer; Darren Jones is from Illinois and has offers from Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Both are three stars.
None of the four guys listed above seems likely. The chances any of the four commits to Michigan are below 50%, and probably below 35%. Then you're vaguely hoping Michigan gets involved with a guy from Texas who may not qualify or down to three star sorts. I'd take a three star sort, but let's not kid ourselves: this decommit is likely to significantly downgrade the results at the most important position in the class.