LIST OF WWE PERSONNEL?!?
Though it seemed for a long time like Michigan would not acheeve dream of landing the top in-state trio of LBs Royce Jenkins-Stone and James Ross and CB Terry Richardson, fear not: Richardson sealed the deal today, completing the triumvirate.
NR CB, #195 Ovr
|NR CB, 150 Watchlist||
#3 CB, #31 Ovr
There is a machine hidden somewhere deep in Detroit that pumps out 5-9, 160-pound cornerbacks, and sends them to Cass Technical High School. Terry Richardson is the latest model, following Boubacar Cissoko, Dior Mathis, and Delonte Hollowell.
Richardson was a 2-seed in Sam Webb's March Madness recruiting column for the Detroit News. Allen Trieu on Terry's game:
The question with him is the size. He stands 5-9, 162 pounds, but he is an excellent football player with great instincts and excellent ball skills. His extensive offer list is proof that many of the top programs in the country have seen enough to say, 'We can overlook the lack of size.'
For the record, Michigan has commitments from 1-seeds James Ross and Royce Jenkins-Stone, 2-seed Devin Funchess, and 3-seeds Matt Godin and Mario Ojemudia, and is in good position with a couple other prospects. Michigan State has commitments from... none of the top 16. The report on Richardson is almost the exact same as the three DBs before him: excellent skills, except he's really short (he was a combine-verified 5-8 in 2009, but that's 3 years before he enters college, too). Trieu says he has the best ball skills of the Cass Tech lineage. Sam also profiled him in the fall:
"He's a natural at corner," said Scout.com Midwest regional manager Allen Trieu. "He has tremendous instincts to go along with the quickness and hips to turn and run with receivers. He also has great ball skills. His main weakness is size. I'd like to see him add weight this offseason but his tackling this season has been solid despite that."
Terry's been putting on weight, as he claims he was only 130 pounds(!) as a sophomore:
"I believe last year I was around 130, and right now I am at 165," Richardson reported. "I feel way stronger. My press coverage is looking a lot better. That is something that I just cannot wait to work on this summer during camp season — being more physical in press coverage."
Moving along, Terry talks about himself on his Scout profile:
“I’m a big play guy. When we need a big play, I’ll come through and make it happen. I’m also smart and I can read routes and know what the offense is doing. I’m also always very composed and don’t get rattled. I want to be more explosive and get in and out of my breaks faster. I’m working on being more physically fit and getting stronger.”
Playing intelligently and building strength are HUGE needs for short DBs. Terry is a certified short guy. The only question about Terry is whether he can do those other things well enough to counter sub-optimal height.
It's relevant because all Cass Tech DBs are the same, so check out Brian's Delonte Hollowell profile for the general vibe on Terry, as well. Aside from the differences noted above, Terry is also a liiiittle bit taller than Delonte, and listed quite a bit faster.
Allen gave a little love to his offer list above, and here is a small sampling of schools who aren't too worried about Terry's height to offer: Alabama, Iowa, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, and USC. All of those schools have put guys into the league at the position in the past couple years.
Other offers include Arizona State, Cincinnati, Indiana, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Pitt, Toledo, and UCLA. This is not some under-the-radar prospect. He had interest from Florida, Miami, Oregon, and Tennessee, and if those schools had extended offers, this would be as exciting a prospect as there is in this class.
Terry Richardson finished his junior season with 35 tackles and 12 interceptions on defense. Offensively, he caught 12 receptions for around 400 yards and five touchdowns.
Richardson had four interceptions, 16 breakups and 20 tackles as a sophomore.
Not bad. Cass Tech ran a spread offense of sorts (though Royce Jenkins-Stone got his share of carries at fullback), and Terry got a few receptions on that side of the ball. Defensively, the Technicians don't play a lot of teams that throw the ball much, and I wouldn't be surprised if those stats are a little... exaggerated.
FAKE 40 TIME
Scout says 4.5, but none of the other sites have listed 40 times. Considering his Scout profile also lists a combine-verified 4.64 (actually not bad with laser timing), I'll have to give two FAKEs out of five.
You can also catch a couple glimpses of #9 in last year's Cass Tech FNL feature, where he impressed me a bit more than 2011 Michigan commit Delonte Hollowell.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Terry seems like a great corner, but on the other hand, Michigan has plenty of talent in the pipeline. Courtney Avery will be but a junior in 2012, and Blake Countess's class (also including Greg Brown, Tamani Carter, and Raymon Taylor) will just be sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Considering Terry is just a skinny little guy, a redshirt year is probably in order.
Following such a redshirt year, special teams time as a redshirt freshman is the expectation, before the graduation of Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott opens up a starting spot, for which he'll compete alongside whichever younger guy doesn't take the Woolfolk/Floyd starting spot in 2012.
I would guess Terry has a good chance at that spot, assuming natural development, or he at least gets a chance in nickel packages (though it seems Mattison's current plan is to play a bigger safety type in the nickel). By the time he's an upperclassman, Terry should be getting plenty of time in the rotation, and be a possible all-conference type in his final two years.
Though his size may limit him in the NFL Draft down the road (assuming he's not done growing - don't forget he won't even be in college for another 18 months), he still has enough other skills to be selected after the first round.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
I am shaking in my shoes trying to figure out what other defensive back is going to commit within the next couple days, because I sure don't have the "comes in pairs" post ready to go for another guy (although Shane Morris and Matt Godin started to break up the position-by-position lockstep).
You know the story by now - DT, RB, OL, and WR are the remaining needs. A QB would be very nice, but is no longer imperative, and the remaining slots can go to the best prospects, regardless of position
The other major outrage type thing going on. That would be the bowl system's ticket guarantees that turn bowls from a guaranteed profit to a guaranteed deficit for many. The Wizard of Odds put together a lot of numbers about what's going on with that. Unfortunately he quoted perpetually silly Andrew Zimbalist saying something about a cartel, but whatever. Numbers:
Supporters of the 35-game bowl system argue that the postseason turns a profit. Technically, this is correct, but only because of the BCS, which this season distributed a reported $174.07 million from its five games. Of that amount, 83.4 percent went to the automatic qualifier conferences — the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific 10 and Southeastern conferences.
The 30 non-BCS bowl games are, at best, a break-even venture. Without the ticket guarantee, it is likely that half the bowls would not exist.
The Fiesta Bowl's massive chunk of unsold seats is actually economically justifiable since the BCS bowls are a net input into the system. That's not the case when you're UCF, and you're eating nearly a million dollars in unsold Liberty Bowl tickets.
This isn't a playoff argument. The bowl system can continue, but the NCAA is currently transferring money from college students (student fees make up a large portion of the revenue for programs that typically go to rinky-dink bowls) to this guy:
Not literally that guy, but versions of that guy in a different blazer. It's a neat trick to transfer the risk your bowl will be a dud from the organizers to the schools, though.
File Under The Gets It Files, Part XI. You know who Amani Toomer hates? Everybody. If he was going to have a sitcom it would be titled "Amani Toomer Hates Everybody." Amani Toomer does not like anyone. He hadn't been back to Ann Arbor in 15 years. He came back for one of the thousands of Hoke Hand-holding Socials and…
“It was good to be back, good to see some players and people, and I saw coach (Gary) Moeller, which was special,” Toomer said. “I just really felt like a part of the whole Michigan family, more so than I did in the past couple of years.
“I feel more connected than I did before, so that’s always a good step forward.”
Amani Toomer likes Gary Moeller! And Brady Hoke!
This is the point at which I make a very silly assertion about this proving how excellent of a recruiter Brady Hoke is, which may be silly but is also 1000% true.
Requirement. I will join the horde, as required by law. This is Jalen Rose's General Lee:
Readers are advised not to attempt a reconciliation between Rose's comments about Duke and what appears to be a massive Dukes of Hazzard fandom. Smoke will come out of your ears.
Readers are advised to bid on the car, though, which is being auctioned off to help fund Rose's charter school in Detroit. Buy it now for 100 grand. Do it now.
Hockey in the boat. As you can see on the sidebar, Michigan hockey officially announced its recruiting class today. The official site's article has stats and a quote from Berenson on each of the signees; Michigan Hockey Net also points out that two guys weren't listed. That's not because they've decommited but because they're preferred walk-ons. Those two are D Mike Szuma and F Andrew Sinelli. Sinelli not counting as a scholarship guy (except when there are extras, which there usually are since someone always leaves the team) helps explain where they're going to get the room to sign these guys the next few years.
Meta but wow. I can't recall how I got to this article from The Daily (not that Daily: the Rupert Murdoch one) on Lloyd Carr being a nice dude who's in the Hall of Fame hurrah. In thirty seconds the generic newspaperese will fade from my brain, but I'll always remember the time I went to that site to read an article that was a half-meg 768x3072 image and marveled at how random the selection process for executives is. I know it's an iPad app and all but raising a giant middle finger to Google is maybe not the best policy.
How do you short this enterprise?
Etc.: Michigan is two-thirds of the way through its practice reduction. Must have been fairly significant if they could stack it like that. Insert joke about how it all came out of the defense here. Jim Tressel's lawyer, Gene Marsh, was Michigan's lawyer. This time around he's banking on Tressel's body language saving the day. That's the ticket. Ramzy at 11 Warriors appears more enthusiastic about Brady Hoke than most Michigan fans. Also he is also unforgiving of past MGoBlog statements that are now ridiculous. Optimism from Holding The Rope.
Bobby Petrino has all the social skills of a PhD student in electrical engineering. This is how you get an NFL team to swear revenge upon you and your clan*. He's a weird dude. So his Arkansas program eschews the usual kabuki dance of medical scholarships and "voluntary" transfers in favor of The Truth™:
FAYETTEVILLE - Arkansas has granted scholarship releases to two more players from its football program in offensive lineman Cam Feldt and linebacker Austin Moss, Razorbacks coach Bobby Petrino said Thursday through a team spokesperson.
The players are the fourth and fifth to be released this week as coaches perform annual scholarship evaluations. Wide receiver Lance Ray, kicker Eddie Camara and tight end Ryan Calender have also been granted releases from the program.
Arkansas is also working toward granting offensive lineman Colby Berna a medical hardship, which would end his playing career. Berna, a Fayetteville native, has struggled with shoulder problems since high school and didn't play during his two seasons on campus.
The truth comes cloaked in a bit of PR spin, but there it is. Arkansas is straight up cutting five dudes and moving a sixth to St. Saban Memorial Hospital. The usually even-keeled Doctor Saturday breaks out his barrel-aged, 18-year old sarcasm in response to the "granted releases" spin in response, and you've heard it all before here. Surprise! I still find the above completely awful.
But I really mean the headline above: by refusing to pretend he's putting kids on the slow boat to a crappy school no one's ever heard of he may be in charge of a program that flagrantly violates the spirit of the NCAA's principles, but at least he's not lying about it. This puts Petrino above the Sabans and Nutts and Tommy Bowdens of the world in the same way PhD EEs are above the sociopaths who end up at Goldman Sachs selling mortgage packages they know will collapse. I'll take the idiot over the lizard any day. By admitting Arkansas takes the bit about one-year renewable scholarships to its most ruthless extreme, Petrino allows us to talk about whether we want our football programs solely focused on on-field performance.
I'm guessing the answer to that will eventually be "no." The heat has moved from obscure bloggers like yrs truly to coaches and presidents at schools with scruples. The NCAA is faced with ballooning scandals as players react to the system: coaches get theirs by axing anyone that can't help them; players get theirs by taking whatever is offered them. The NCAA can't defend its principles of amateurism at the same time the most successful conference in the most successful sport is dumping anyone not immediately useful. If they do, I suggest they change their commercial tagline to "too many of us are going pro with a glorified associate's degree because we got cut and sent to JUCO."
Bobby Petrino can't be bothered to lie any more because people will badger him in press conferences and we're a step closer to ending, or at least associating costs with, cutting any kid who doesn't work out.
*[A thousand years from now the descendants of Bobby Petrino will be robotic feudal slum lords prosecuting an ancient war with Atlfalcorp no one remembers the origins of. Fayetteville will be underwater and everyone in Atlanta dead in the aftermath of the Great Traffic Jam, but the war will go on.]
2012 Offer Board lives here.
Decisions on Deck?
IN QB Gunner Kiel has eliminated Notre Dame, and is down to a final four of Michigan, Missouri, Alabama, and Oklahoma. He is planning a June decision.
Not only is OH DE Chris Wormley excelling in field events (discus and shot put) this spring, he's dropping recruiting info to track reporters:
“Everything I do [in the three sports] helps all around,” said Wormley, whose top two colleges choices right now are Michigan first and Ohio State second, followed by Michigan State and Notre Dame. “It keeps me conditioned throughout the season. [Track] ties into everything.”
Now that Scout is asking the customary headline-question-where-the-answer-is-always-yes about whether Wormley will decide soon ($, info in header), it could mean another commitment isn't far off for the maize-and-blue. He told Tom that he'll focus on recruiting once track ends. Magnus talks about Wormley's surprisingly low Rival ranking on Maize n Brew:
It looks like he put on some weight, and it doesn't necessarily look like pure muscle. Secondly, it looks like he's either favoring some part of his body or he just lacks aggression... I'm saying it looks like something is wrong. Additionally, he doesn't get off the ball as quickly in his junior film, and it looks like he lost a notch in the speed department.
Early offers from Michigan and Ohio State speak to his potential, but he's going to have to capture his sophomore-year fitness (he certainly doesn't look fat in the track photo above) and form to improve his standing to the recruiting services.
MI CB Terry Richardson has been on-again, off-again about making a decision at some point this week. If such a decision does come to pass, it will be tomorrow morning at 11:45 in the Cass Tech weight room, but as of right now, it seems like the conference will be delayed again - but he'll announce on social media sites at 8AM tomorrow.
Fill 'er Up
With the 2012 class about half-full (per the expectations come Signing Day, at least), it's time to look at what needs remain for the next crop of Wolverines and which positions must be filled:
- QB: 0-1. The commitment of 2013's Shane Morris allows the coaching staff to be very selective about a QB in this class. They can either swing for the fences with Gunner Kiel, or go for a multi-position guy.
- RB: 1-2. Brady Hoke clearly wants one running back in this class (though it seems they're content to pursue mostly elite prospects) and probably a fullback as well.
- WR: 1. With Darryl Stonum, Junior Hemingway, and Martavious Odoms moving on after this year, at least one wideout is necessary for roster balance. Another would be a luxury.
- TE: 0-1. Early on, it seemed like Michigan would take another tight end despite already having two committed. Now, that isn't looking like the case (sorry, Ron Thompson).
- OL: 2-3. At least one true left tackle is a big need, and another right tackle would give Ben Braden the opportunity to play on the interior.
- DT: 2. With a couple light years in defensive tackle recruiting, a pair of them are needed in this class.
- DE: 1-2. Chris Wormley is the obvious choice here, but the coaching staff might accept another commitment if it's an elite guy.
- S: 1-2. Depending on where Raymon Taylor and Tamani Carter end up from last year's class, this may not be as dire a need as it seems.
- CB: 1-2. With a big crop of DBs in 2011, they can be selective about who they take.
As always in recruiting, this is subject to change at a moment's notice. You'll note that the coaching staff will have to be selective at some of those positions, though they'll figure out a way to take any elite prospects.
New Offers (And Potential New Offers)
Michigan is showing interest in ID QB Tanner Mangum. He's currently committed to BYU.
UT FB/RB Sione Houma has picked up a Michigan offer.
Benson said Michigan and Washington have both recruited Houma with the intention of moving him to fullback, but other schools, such as UCLA, are interested in him as a tailback.
Michigan has offered a bunch of fullback-types.
Michigan has offered IL DE/DT Faith Ekakitie.
FL S Allen Gant - the son of former Wolverine Tony Gant - has received his Michigan offer. He's going to visit Ann Arbor within the next couple weeks.
Happy Trails from the future, OH RB/DB William Mahone? There's "an almost 100% chance" he'll eventually pick Penn state, per one expert.
Happy Trails, TX FB/LB Dominic Ramacher. He committed to Oklahoma State.
Happy Trails, OH WR Corey Smith. The teammate of OH S Jarrod Wilson, he will attend Tennessee after a stint at junior college.
Happy Trails, FL LB Raphael Kirby. He picked Miami. Something tells me the coaching staff isn't sweating when linebackers come off the board.
Nominees for the US Army All-American Bowl are out (pdf link), and include a number of Michigan commits (Jenkins-Stone, Ringer, Ojemudia, Bolden), and too many targets to list. The 440 nominess will be whittled down to 90ish selections.
OH TE Commit AJ Williams is keeping in touch with OH DE Adolphus Washington and OH WR Dwayne Stanford about picking Michigan:
Michigan is looking to capitalize on a few "ins" of its own. The first is Stanford's boyhood affinity for the Maize and Blue. The second is Stanford and Washington's relationship with recent Michigan commitment, Cincinnati Sycamore tight end A.J. Williams.
"(Williams) called me all excited and said he committed to Michigan and told me that me and Aldophus need to get with the program and head on up to Ann Arbor with him and they wouldn't be able to stop us," Stanford recalled. "I'm loving Michigan right now. I have nothing but positive energy and thoughts on my mind about them. Coach (Mark) Smith and A.J. stay on me too. Especially with him committing there, that really helps me. We're just going to see how everything plays out.
The Wolverines definitely need a wideout, and Washington is the type of athlete it would be really hard to turn down, but the Cincy products are both planning to wait until January to announce decisions. We'll see how much room is left in Michigan's class (and what the needs are) when the time comes. Stanford is visiting Michigan soon ($, info in header).
PA RB Greg Garmon has narrowed to a top 5 of Michigan, UNC, Iowa, Illinois, and West Virginia. He does say that some of the schools in that top 5 could change.
Michigan and two mystery schools make up the top three for CA OL Erik Magnuson. He will take an official visit to Ann Arbor in the fall.
CO OL Paul Thurston visited Michigan a couple weeks ago, and it helped Michigan stay near the top of his list.
TX OL Trey Keenan has family in Michigan, and he says the Wolverines are likely to make the cut when he trims his list. He wants to make a final decision before the start of his senior season.
OH DE Se'Von Pittman talks recruiting, including his interest in Michigan:
"I've taken a few visits around to some different campuses," Pittman said. "I've checked out Michigan and Michigan State and Notre Dame." ...He could be an outside linebacker in some scenarios or a defensive end or maybe something more. Notre Dame wants him to be a quarterback-hunting outside linebacker and Michigan wants him to be whatever he wants.
The Wolverines are loading up on defensive ends and linebackers, and Se'Von is going to take his time deciding. That could mean there won't be room for him in the 2012 class by the time he makes a decision.
Though he's a Penn State soft commit, NY DT Jarron Jones is "anxious to learn" on his trip to Ann Arbor next month ($, info in header). Based on a local article, it really sounds like he doesn't consider himself committed to the Nittany Lions at all:
"It's really about where I feel comfortable. Where do I fit in, where are they going to have me? Some coaches want me at offensive, some at defensive end, some at linebacker."
Something tells me a 6-7, 300 pound guy is unlikely to play linebacker in college. He's been nominated for the Army all-American game.
MI OL/DT DaRon Brown will camp at Michigan this summer to try to earn an offer. IL CB Anthony Standifer is continuing to blow up, with new offers from the likes of Purdue and Iowa, Northwestern, and others.
MI QB Commit Shane Morris will participate in an Elite 11 tryout in Columbus this weekend. 2012 prospects Gunner Kiel and Zeke Pike will also be in attendance. The Free Press covers Morris's commitment.
MI RB Wyatt Shallman tells Tom what the coaching staff thinks of his ability as a running back.
The most persistently wrong thing I was wrong about amongst the many persistently wrong things I asserted about Rich Rodriguez and his bite-sized Era at Michigan was: "that turnover margin is going to be a lot closer to zero this year." Or words to that effect.
I should have been right, or at least in the general ballpark of right. Rodriguez's West Virginia teams were consistently in the black. Turnover margin is so weakly correlated from year to year that Phil Steele annually puts out a "turnovers = turnaround" post highlighting teams with double-digit swings in either direction so that he can predict against the teams with big numbers and in favor of the teams with little tiny ones. Here's your favorite team:
And here's how that worked out:
Amongst the many things that got Rodriguez fired, the persistently huge negative turnover margin is neck and neck with transferpalooza and program alum white blood cells for second place.
So these days, running across stats like these…
running the correlation between one year's turnover margin and the next, I found that the correlation was a mere 12%. That's still something, but it's clear that for most teams, the turnover margin they enjoy one year has virtually zero predictive value for the turnover margin they will enjoy the next year. That means that on average, teams with substantially positive margins will see major decline in margin the next year, and teams with substantially negative margins will see major improvement the next year. A team with a -10 turnover margin in 2009, for example, would have an expected turnover margin of -1.2 in 2010, an improvement of nearly a full turnover per game!
…make me want to bang my head against the wall. Of course Michigan would be as large of a chunk of that correlation as possible, and of course they would be on the negative side of things. Thump. Thump. (The only thing worse than defying this correlation is defying the correlation between turnovers and wins: GTP points out Georgia went from –16 to +10 and still finished two games worse than they did last year. That would seriously harsh my buzz if I was a Georgia fan.)
I have tried to make the world make sense and this is what I've come up with:
- The correlation is so low because quarterbacks are so important. The general path of a quarterback is: bench, horrible interception-laden youth, cool as a elderly cucumber, repeat. When you have a senior quarterback you are likely to have a good turnover margin and guaranteed to not have that guy back next year.
- The same goes for everywhere else, albeit to a lesser extent. Good defenses tend to have seniors on them and tend to not have many returning starters.
- Michigan eschewed the general path in favor of freshmen or equivalents. Rodriguez never started the same guy two years in a row, and while that turned out to be the right decision it meant three straight years of horrible interception-laden etc.
- When your defense is so, so bad you escape TO margin gravity. AKA GERG. Also, what's the one thing that consistently generates turnovers? QB pressure. Michigan finished 98th in sacks and loved them some three-man rushes.
So while year-to-year correlation is low across college football, if you correct for experience—especially at QB—and maybe lack of prominent walk-ons/converted WRs in the secondary that 12% would be significantly larger. Michigan's program got so messed up that they stopped participating in the circle of turnovers*. Instead they laid at the bottom of the national rankings, a corpse dragged down by redzone interceptions.
Seriously, This Time It's Serious
Um… so… there's the above theory. And then there's Denard Robinson, Michigan's first returning starter at QB since Chad Henne. And then there's Greg Mattison and a defense that uses Craig Roh as a pass rusher instead of a clunky linebacker. There are a bunch of returning starters everywhere, including four guys on the offensive line.
I'm going to be the guy who puts his hat on a stick and pokes it out of a trench to see if there are any snipers around, again: Michigan's turnover margin should scream towards zero this year. They've got gravity on their side and many things besides. Also, Brady Hoke's miraculous digestive tract will move all that Tyler Sash wackiness to Ann Arbor.
This is the year Michigan has a mediocre turnover margin. Believe.
The Rivals Top 250 list was recently released and Michigan still has a shot with around 45 of those top recruits. Among the top prospects is La Costa Canyon offensive tackle Erik Magnuson. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound lineman checks in as the number 34 overall prospect in the nation with a 4 star ranking. Considering the competition among offensive linemen in the 2012 class, that ranking says a lot.
Back in March Magnuson updated us on his knowledge of Michigan and familiarity with the new coaching staff from their days at San Diego State. "Yeah, I know [the coaches] from there. I feel like Coach Funk is a great coach and really knows a lot about the offensive line….Coach Funk is just the man. He took me in when I was a sophomore and just really treated me well," he said. He also mentioned that despite the fact that he lives in California he prefers the cold weather of Michigan.
Erik's then top five consisted of Michigan, Oregon, USC, Miami, and Oklahoma but was still changing as offers were coming in. He now knows who the top three programs are, but isn't ready to announce all three schools just yet. "I haven't come out with the top three yet. I'm waiting a little bit to make it public, but I will say that Michigan is one of them," he said. "I'm only taking official visits to schools that I'm really serious about and I will be out to Michigan this fall for an official."
Magnuson will release the rest of his top three to the public soon, but isn't sure when exactly. He also doesn't have a set timeline for when he'd like to make his decision, but is hoping that comfortable feeling lets him know when he's ready.
Erik Magnuson Junior Film