How this works again:
- Readers predict the final score of a designated game by placing a guess in the comments, preferably in the format of [M score][hyphen][Opp score], for example "41-30" or "35-31 Michigan", or "28-24 Go Blue", or "38-0 Harbaugh!" etc.
- The three guys who read this part holler at people who post in a different format
- First person (by timestamp) to post a particular score has it.
- If you got it right, I contact you for an address by your MGoBlog account email, and you give me some time to get that to you.
- If nobody got it right or I don't hear from the winner(s) we push it to next week or let it go.
Last Time: I forgot to run one for Penn State. Nobody guessed Colorado would be this good.
This Week’s Game:
Wisconsin at Michigan.
And on the Line: Milk.
Real milk, not that candy-ass white water. Thanks to BiSB for the design:
One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (for my ease I prefer if you don't post it as a reply to another person's score--if you do it won't help or hurt you). Deadline for entries is 24 hours before the start of the game. MGoEmployees and moderators exempt from winning. The algorithm finds the winners as it chooses. The algorithm is self-correcting. The algorithm consistently runs inside zone. The algorithm is banned in Jersey. Algorithm’s sorry. Except to Scott Frost. And the NBA. And the NCAA. And Scott Frost’s mom. This is not Scott Frost’s mom. It is an algorithm.
Ben Braden and Khalid Hill
Ben, you struggled with injuries in the early going. How are you doing now and how did you feel on Saturday?
“Feeling really good. Saturday was a good feeling being able to go through a whole game. I feel solid. Yeah, it was a rough start in the beginning but the training staff’s been great and all my teammates have been really encouraging. Physically, I feel great. Nothing out of the ordinary.”
The whole team, it seemed like, gathered around Jeremy. How tough is it to see someone like that suffer a season-ending injury?
KH: “I feel like it was real tough to see Jeremy go down. He’s like my brother and to see him fall down--I’ve dealt with the same injury he has, and to be in a game in your fifth year, it’s not how you want to go out. I wanted to shed a tear with him when he was on the field and went to him and told him everything was going to be okay, if he needed me I’d be there for him.”
BB: “Yeah, being the same class as Jeremy, you see that and…I was speechless watching it because he’s worked so hard since he’s been here, and to have something like that happen, I feel for him and his family. Anything he needs, the whole team will be there for him.”
Khalid, it wasn’t this particular game but the game against Colorado, what’s your reaction when you’re going out to block on the edge and you see a defensive back turn away from you and want no part of you?
“I mean, it’s sometimes funny because they act like they want to hit me and then they run away. When you see a big guy coming, I mean, you try to get around him or attempt to run back, but it’s whatever, you know. I don’t like when they chop me, but it’s cool.”
[Hit THE JUMP for more]
The place to be. Michigan, 1948.
"Michigan is the place to be" — Life magazine, 11/8/1948 pic.twitter.com/PD3OZXAWwI
— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) September 27, 2016
ALSO THE PLACE TO BE:
We're having a pre-Wisconsin event with Marlin Jackson at 1300 South Main Street. Festivities start at ten; I'll be there by noon. Proceeds benefit Jackson's excellent Fight For Life charity; you can park in the shadow of the Big House and partake for $56 or walk on over; there's a suggested donation of ten bucks. We'll have a raffle, a Q&A session with Marlin, and food provided by Tailgater Concierge and drink from Wolverine Brewing. Come on by, support a great cause, and ask Ace about Harambe!
Clark: ACL, gone. Fears confirmed, but Harbaugh did tell the assembled media they'd try to get Clark a sixth year. I'm going to be real peeved if he doesn't get one given the Ed Davis precedent.
This is a damn strong anagram team. The Hoover Street Rag has run many Michigan names through internet anagram sites and come up with some doozies. Favorites:
WILTON SPEIGHT gives you WHITEST LOPING
MIKE McCRAY gets you MY, I CRACK EM
CHRIS WORMLEY gets you CHOWS MERRILY
BEN BREDESON gets you BONES BENDER
This should be a category in not very serious game previews.
What happened in that Wisconsin-MSU game. It was a slugfest with both offenses barely cresting 300 yards. Wisconsin got the blowout because Tyler O'Conner was intercepted three times, LJ Scott fumbled for a Wisconsin scoop and score, and MSU's punter dropped a snap. In the aftermath the SB Nation MSU blog appears to have quit en masse. Gotta toughen up there, Sparty.
PFF's take on Alex Hornibrook was surprisingly negative:
Quarterback: Alex Hornibrook 57.2
This was certainly not a game that required a vintage quarterback performance to come away with the win. All the Badgers really needed were a handful of third-down conversions and Hornibrook did just that. His fumble early in the game could have been a costlier mistake although the interception before the end of the half was more of a last-ditch effort than anything else.
I thought he looked good through the first quarter and a half. I haven't seen the rest of the game yet, so maybe he fell off.
On defense, the main takeaway was that Wisconsin's linebackers kick ass. Four of their top five grades were LBs and almost all of them cracked the 80 grade that appears to be the cutoff for a really good performance. Vince Biegel had ten(!) QB hurries.
On the MSU side of things, Tyler O'Connor was horrendous (52.3 grade) and their offense failed to have anyone crack 80—Brian Allen was the only guy even close. The OL allowed presser on O'Connor on more of half their snaps, largely on failed blitz pickups. (Why, hello Mr. Peppers.) The defense was about on par with expectations except that Darian Hicks was good. They've got a guy with a big blinking THROW AT ME sign, though:
If you’re looking to point the finger at anyone on the Spartans defense, it would be safety Demetrious Cox. He allowed 7-8 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Can't say I'm surprised.
Michigan has a tough assignment on offense this week, but I'd expect they hold the Badger offense in check.
A spate of injuries. Bad week for season-enders in the league. Michigan has of course lost Clark. Several other important players also went down for extended periods of time:
- Janarion Grant, also known as "the Rutgers offense" is out for the year after injuring his ankle at the tail end of a 76-yard run. Rutgers also lost DE Quanzell Lambert.
- Iowa wide receiver Matt Vandeberg, who currently has more catches than the rest of Iowa's WRs combined, injured his foot and is out 'indefinitely.' Per Tom Kakert, it's a broken foot that will end his year.
- MSU linebacker Riley Bullough kept up the family tradition by missing a game for mysterious reasons against Wisconsin. Reports have it that he was injured in practice before Notre Dame and will return sometime this season. Fellow LB Jon Reschke did something to his left leg in a non-contact situation and is out for a "significant amount of time" with what MSU is describing as an ankle sprain despite it not looking at all like an ankle sprain. Ed Davis is still being held out, probably in hopes he can get a seventh year.
- Wisconsin kicker Rafael Gaglianone missed the MSU game with a back issue and may or may not be back this weekend. Paul Chryst has "no idea." Ditto OL Jon Dietzen. Gaglianone's replacement, Andrew Endicott, missed an extra point but hit a 41-yard field goal. Wisconsin played much of the MSU game as if they had little confidence in him.
— Terrance Donnels (@LSUFreek) September 27, 2016
Exit Les Miles. Over the past five or six years if Les Miles's name has come up on this blog it's because I'm attempting to convince people we really did not want him to be Michigan's head coach. That doesn't mean college football isn't poorer for his absence now that he's been fired. He was perfect at LSU, where he could cause the internet to devolve into a string of exclamation points without affecting my blood pressure. Keep that dour offense and the Mardi Gras surrounding it down in the Bayou. Miles was fun, and fun in a way that it seems like only college football can support.
I recommend three eulogies. Two are essays, one from Spencer Hall...
1. Les Miles was fired from his job as LSU football coach this weekend. Getting fired four games into a season would only seem premature if time ever mattered to Miles, but it rarely did. Miles ran out of time, added time to games, forced others to work against it, and sometimes just melted the clock completely.
A one-score LSU game in the last three minutes could accelerate from full-on torpor to electric insanity, mostly because of his belief that a football game can sometimes be a little longer than 60 minutes if he needed it to be. You called people, tweeted at them, and yelled in all-caps when LSU ran shit down to the wire.
Miles at the wheel meant you were guaranteed 58 minutes of reliable, red-meat, Big Ten football. It also meant you got two minutes of off-the-rails Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride banditry that LSU might or might not survive.
...and the other from Matt Hinton:
Say this much for Les Miles’ tenure at LSU: It died as it lived, amid a fit of last-second chaos and confusion that nearly defied description.
Honestly, can you imagine a sequence that better captures the essence of a coach or team than the final, frantic seconds of the Tigers’ 18-13 loss at Auburn? Miles has made a living for years out of pulling victory from the jaws of defeat (among other orifices) in precisely the sort of fraught situation his team faced on Saturday — on fourth-down conversions and do-or-die bombs, via fake field goals and trick plays in moments no one else would have dared, under circumstances so bizarre almost no one could remember having ever seen them before.
The third is LSUfreek's timeline at this very moment.
— Terrance Donnels (@LSUFreek) September 27, 2016
Someone please hit Mack Brown with a shovel and insert Miles into his place posthaste.
Never hire an NFL coordinator. In the aftermath of the Lexit, Bill Connelly strikes upon a theme in a spate of recently-fired coaches on the successful end of the spectrum: awful coordinator hires. The beginning of the end for Les was importing Cam Cameron. Cameron was actually a successful NFL coordinator...
In 10 seasons as an NFL coordinator, Cameron's offenses had only once finished in the bottom half of the league in offensive DVOA.
...but his college offenses were 1990s-vintage NFL ones and increasingly horrendous. Mark Richt got the axe much faster after importing Brian Schottenheimer, who wasn't only an NFL coach but an NFL nepotism special. Brian Kelly isn't out at Notre Dame but his seat his quite hot after hiring Brian Van Gorder in the aftermath of Bob Diaco's departure for UConn.
What's the theme here? Don't hire an NFL coach.
Rule 1: Don’t look for NFL experience.
Of the 40 coordinators with recent top-10 offenses, only nine had any experience at the NFL level. Only four of 40 had been in the pros for more than three years. Two of these four (Pep Hamilton, Mike Bloomgren) were hired by Stanford, so I guess the corollary should be: “Don’t worry about NFL experience ... unless you’re David Shaw.”
On the defensive side, the percentages are similar. Of the 34 coordinators with recent top-10 defenses, only eight had NFL experience, and only four had more than three years in the NFL: Vance Bedford (2014 Texas, six years), Dan Quinn (2012 Florida, 10 years), Todd Grantham (2011 Georgia, 11 years), and Clancy Pendergast (2013 USC, 15 years).
I'd like to point out that when Bedford and Quinn had their top ten defenses they were working under head coaches (Charlie Strong and Will Muschamp) who were massively successful college defensive coordinators. The list of longtime NFL coaches able to do anything in college is extremely thin.
This is why I was panicked during the defensive coordinator search when Rivals kept bringing up NFL names, and super enthusiastic when Harbaugh passed up that trap for Don Brown.
Speaking of Don Brown. How's that going again?
The Michigan offense has been good enough in the early going. The Wolverines are finishing drives and converting short-yardage opportunities, controlling the ball and the field position battle despite only decent efficiency.
But the defense has been the driving force. New coordinator Don Brown's unit ranks first in havoc rate and second in Def. S&P+, and Peppers has been the catalyst for such successful aggressiveness.
I give it a thumbs up.
The Hirsch. Dan Murphy on a prime Rinaldi target:
He was a Harvard graduate with a reputation around the office as someone who set the bar high and usually managed to clear it. He was two years into a promising career, surrounded by friends and as healthy as he had been in a long time. But Hirsch woke up restless that morning.
"So I went for a walk," he says, "and I realized that I needed something else going on in my life outside of work. Work was great, but I was lacking a major goal."
Asiasi-asi! Oy! Oy! Oy! [Bryan Fuller]
Our weekly roundtable.
How are our pre-season predictions on new starters and heavy rotation guys holding up? Eligible players are anyone getting significantly more snaps this year than last.
I looked back through the last few defensive UFRs and he received increasingly more snaps, hovering around +1 while being relevant on only a few plays. After Clark got hurt Kinnel seemed to be the DB of choice to take his spot and shift others around as necessary. Kinnel has also been used on special teams and blocked a kick. While he's not going to be a starter just yet (hopefully), his work load should increase, and for the moment it looks like that will come without a drop-off. I'm not thinking that anyone ever has serious doubts about whether he could contribute on this team, but he's at least met expectations so far.
On the other end of the secondary spectrum appears to be Brandon Watson. He hasn't played a ton, but he definitely saw his snaps go up for the Hawaii and Colorado games. In the UFR he was -2 and -3, respectively, for those games. He was put in the slot against Colorado for the first couple of quarters and definitely looked overmatched. He's always been a guy who could potentially succeed if he got a good jam on a WR...however, when that does not happen, he looks lost in space. With Michigan's current and future set of CBs, its not looking like Watson will see too much extra time in close games, or not on defense anyway. It looks as if he could be destined for special teams duty for the long term.
[Hit THE JUMP for MGoBlog contributors trying very hard to find something that hasn’t gone right so far.]
[Gina Ferazzi – LA Times]
It seems like the season just started, but we’re already in thick of conference play – the SEC had three ranked-vs-ranked matchups (and two wound up being blowouts), the Big Ten had an important cross-divisional game between Michigan State and Wisconsin – a rousing Badger win – and there were some interesting results in the Pac-12. In the end, there weren’t any major upsets near the top, leaving the playoff picture much the same as it was before the weekend. Despite the uncompetitive nature of some of Week Four’s best fixtures, college football still managed to produce its share of exciting games, as always.
--- Perhaps we should expect STANFORD to be capable of some brutish, low-scoring slobberknockers, but it was still disorienting to see a Pac-12 game with such little offense; the Cardinal defeated UCLA 22-13 after a late touchdown drive to notch their first trip to the end zone of the day (a scoop-and-score on the game’s last play took the score from 16-13 to the final margin). David Shaw’s game management was again questionable: Stanford got the ball with about six and a half minutes left and took almost two minutes to go three-and-out and punt on 4th-and-1, even though they have one of the best backs in the country in Christian McCaffery (and they even somehow wasted a timeout in that sequence).The conservative strategy wound up working out – UCLA wasn’t able to salt the game away with first downs, Stanford got the ball back, and, looking like a completely new offense, marched down the field for the game-winning touchdown with 24 seconds left. McCaffery was largely held in check by the Bruin defense, turning in 138 yards on 26 carries. UCLA has now lost eight in a row to Stanford.
[more on the week that was after the JUMP]
This week I talked to Khalid Hill about his first-quarter touchdown, which came on fourth-and-goal from the Penn State one-yard line. The goal-to-go sequence was set up after Hill caught a pass from Speight on third down at the Penn State 17 and rumbled to the three-yard line. A one-yard loss on first down, incomplete pass on second down, and two-yard pass on third down set up Hill’s fourth-down carry. Check out the GIF at the bottom of the post to see exactly how the run unfolded.
Penn State’s defense had only faced one other fourth-and-goal this year, and even then they kicked it. I’m guessing with their personnel changes at linebacker and all there wasn’t a whole lot of film on how they were going to line up, especially with you guys split so tight. How tough does that make it when there’s not much film to refer to for what a defense is going to do?
“You kind of can figure out what they’re going to do as the game goes on. We do a good job of communicating to our coaches what we see on the field and what we might see, so our coaches do a great job of gameplanning and putting in what they think might be on the field so we have a similar image of what might be on the field.
“Like, on that goal-line play we ran the ball and we knew what they were going to be in. The one thing we didn’t know was that they were going to be knifing their ends in. When the thought went in to run the ball for the touchdown they were setting the knife on the edge, so I kinda knew once I got the ball I was going to press the line of scrimmage, make the linebackers bite, make the D-ends knife in, and then bounce to the outside, and that’s what I did and found a hole in the end zone. Coaches do a great job of trying to figure out what they might do, do a great job of finding film of what they might do and research on coaches and stuff like that.”
With the presnap motion and Asiasi going back and forth there, it looked like the defensive back might have overreacted after he ran to the middle. Did he get one gap too far outside?
“I wouldn’t say that. I think he moved right to where Asiasi wanted him, because he was able to kick him out where I could find a hole right inside of him. I mean, we have so much motion and stuff like that at the goal line that teams tend to do that. Certain teams tend to overrun stuff and have a hard time getting back, so we catch them in a mess-up and find a hole and get in the end zone. That’s what basically it does. We do motions to see what they’re in, to see whether they’re in man or a certain blitz or something. If that was a mess-up on his part it worked out for me.”
Related to what you were saying before, on this particular play the defensive tackle knifed inside and you were about to get engulfed. Before a play, do you know sort of ‘if X happens, I’m going to bounce to here’ or do you see a guy in front of you and just go wherever you see daylight?
“Pretty much I was in my stance and they shifted. The D-tackle shifted outside, and I was going to hit it where he was. At first he was right over—inside, if there was hole in front of Kalis I was going to run at Kalis and just sort of push Kalis but he moved out, and I was like, Okay, it’s going to be either I run straight ahead or I’m going to bounce it.’
“Like Coach says, just follow your tracks and your tracks will take you where you want to be. But also following your tracks will put defenders in a spot that they don’t want to be in, because, like I said, if I ran straight ahead the backers came down and got Ty. Tyrone Wheatley Jr. did a great job of collecting the backer, and I was able to go around him and get in the end zone. Asiasi did a great job of kicking out the corner or whoever that was on the outside and I was able to find a hole.”
What’s harder: scoring on a dive or finding the right GIF to respond to Stribling or McCray or Dawson?
[/laughs] “Finding the right gif to respond to those guys, man. It was actually crazy. When we first found out GIFs were a part of twitter we just went on a rampage. It was funny. Actually, on the iOS10 I can have gifs on my phone, so we’ll just be texting them to each other. It’s crazy. I’ll show you. [/takes his phone out and opens a text chain] Like if you press this you got gifs already here like a message board. So yeah, it’s cool.”
I’ve gotta download this tonight. So, if you keep getting in the end zone, are we going to see a touchdown dance? As one of the original members of the running man challenge group [Michigan edition], it seems like--
“Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, I said it last week but on the first play of the game I gave up a sack for a touchdown and Wilton got hit pretty hard. I made it my business this week to come out and produce quick, off the bat, to get the first catch and take it down to the goal line. I thought we were going to score after that so I was like, I didn’t score but at least I contributed. Coach said ‘Hey’ and called me and I scored, and I was just so relieved that I was like, ahhhh, let me celebrate with my teammates. I don’t want to get flagged, but you got a dance coming soon. You got a dance coming soon. Everybody, my boys back home and everybody’s like, ‘Why you ain’t dancing? You love dancing!’ You’ll see something soon.”