fair point that
And it's over six ounces! That's like a double whammy!
Ah, Golden Tate. You made a good rival, a better Stuffing the Passer puppet, and most recently an excellent number two to Calvin Johnson. But the reason I love Golden Tate the most was he was money on my fantasy team last year. And whenever I cheered for him people thought I was rooting for the Lions and felt sorry for me.
It's weird to have these feelings for former rivals. I'm not like Ace, who as we speak is probably in some dank Ann Arbor basement hoping to draft Carlos Hyde because Alex Boone is blocking for him. Go ahead Ace!
In fact, this time I welcome you to draft all the Urban Meyer quarterbacks. Wait are there any Urban Meyer quarterbacks? Ah yes, Alex Smith: drafted by Ute fans who are bad at trolling everywhere.
I can get behind a Badger or a Husker (hey Abdulla is cheap!), but I usually avoid rival-rival guys in fantasy because there's a wrongness. Unless he was a puppet. Or if he's still underpriced and could win you 100 large. Then it's okay.
NFL starts tonight. First NFL game of the year with our fantasy partners at Draft Kings starts Sunday.
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2016 Lima (OH) point guard Xavier Simpson became the fourth member of Michigan's 2016 class yesterday. The day started with what appeared to be concerning news when in-state point guard target Cassius Winston announced that after initially pushing back his planned official visit, Michigan was no longer an option for him. With Simpson looking all set to commit to Wisconsin yesterday afternoon, this didn't look great for the Wolverines, and memories of the Battle/Langford saga had fans concerned.
That concern was unfounded. As it turns out, on his way back from visiting Wisconsin last weekend, Simpson made a pit stop in Ann Arbor.
For those thinking this came out of nowhere, it did not. Simpson visited michigan Sunday afternoon/evening.
— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) September 9, 2015
Been wrapped up for a few days now
— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) September 9, 2015
Michigan had a chance to lock up a top-100 prospect at a position of need. In doing so, they pulled the rug out from Wisconsin, but I'm sure since this is John Beilein we're talking about here their fans reacted in a totally reasonable fashion.
Or the total opposite. This is without a doubt funnier than anything that dude has posted on his Bo Ryan parody account.
[Hit THE JUMP for the informative portion.]
Upon Further Review still has a sponsor.
We have managed to maintain our sponsorship relation for a day, which is progress for us. During this day we would like to reiterate that Seth and I both refinanced with Homesure, which was both easy—everything's over a secure internet dropbox, so you don't have to put on pants—and efficient—he asks all the banks which one will give you the best deal. He's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.
FORMATION NOTES: Where the defense alternated between basically two setups, the offense was a smorgasbord of stuff ranging from five wide…
…to unbalanced goal line packages…
To this, which I called "offset Maryland I":
FWIW, I filed Poggi as a tight end in the table.
PERSONNEL NOTES: Rudock your QB. Line was Cole/Braden/Glasgow/Kalis/Magnuson the whole way except for a few snaps on which Logan Tuley-Tillman came in to play tackle that used Mason Cole as an inline tight end (who can't go downfield).
Butt played almost every snap—maybe every single one. There was a lot of rotation aside from him. Henry Poggi got the most time as an H-back; Kerridge was your traditional fullback. Williams got the most time other than Butt as an inline TE. We saw a little bit of Hill and Bunting.
WR was mostly Darboh and Chesson on the outside, with Harris rotating in. Perry played in the slot, sometimes in twins formations in which there were two TEs.
Smith was the main back with Isaac getting maybe 20% of the snaps behind him. Green and Taylor-Douglas got a few snaps each.
[After THE JUMP: throwing guys in the wrong direction.]
According to a very brief release from the athletic department, redshirt sophomore offensive tackle Logan Tuley-Tillman is no longer a member of the football program.
Statement from Jim Harbaugh, J. Ira and Nicki Harris Family Head Football Coach:
“Logan Tuley-Tillman has been dismissed from the football team for conduct unacceptable for a Michigan student athlete."
Tuley-Tillman saw some action as a sixth lineman in the Utah game, so something must have transpired since then. His departure means Michigan's depth on the line is worrisome both this year and moving forward. Unless a guard slides out to tackle, the only backup tackles are now freshmen: redshirt freshman Juwann Bushell-Beatty and true freshmen Grant Newsome and Nolan Ulizio. Graham Glasgow and Ben Braden could each move to right tackle, allowing David Dawson or Patrick Kugler (when he's healthy) to slide into the lineup if need be. Michigan can stand pat for now, but if there's an injury on the line things get dicey in a hurry.
Expect Michigan to make a big push for another tackle in the 2016 class. Meanwhile, the heralded 2013 O-line haul is looking like a disaster. Kugler and Dawson still have plenty of time to contribute, but Chris Fox's career is over due to medical issues, Kyle Bosch transferred to West Virginia, Dan Samuelsen couldn't crack the two-deep and transferred, and now Tuley-Tillman is off the team.
All offseason I've been dickering around with targeting data trying to find something predictive about Michigan's receivers. Here's what I came up with:
Big makes click (WRs with <10 targets excluded)
What you're seeing is RYPR data for guys listed as sophomores on 2005-'14 rosters. I couldn't be precise because that doesn't account for redshirts, but whenever I came across a double I went with the later year. RYPR is an imperfect feelingsball stat by Bill Connelly that tries to tie in a receiver's targeting data and the nature of his offense with his raw production. The big yellow diamond around 60 targets and 70 RYPR is Darboh last year (the other diamond in the mess of barely targeted dudes is Chesson).
What I like about the chart above is it's the first one that seems to put the guys who wound up really productive dramatically above average. Gallon and Manningham are floating well above the dotted line, Greg Mathews is way below it, and Darboh, Funchess (who spent part of that season as a TE), and Roundtree are kinda on it, despite a big spread in number of targets.
The Michigan sample's small, but the vast majority of guys above dotted line as sophomores wound up NFL picks. RYPR/targets in fact was more predictive than RYPR itself. NFL draft picks averaged 1.43 RYPR/Tgts versus 1.05 for those not drafted. The graph isn't dramatic (again click to make it big) but it's at least useful for setting a baseline:
I noted some outliers among the undrafted: Jarrett Boykin (3.05 in 2009) spent three years on the Packers, starting for half of 2013. Billy Pittman had his big year with Vince Young but had a kind of palsy, got hit with one of the dumbest NCAA penalties ever (7 games for sharing his friend's car for the summer) and was an old man already by his combine. And Da'Rick Rogers left Tennessee after failing three drug tests, was the best receiver in FCS for a year, and has bounced around practice rosters since. As for those still playing, they're among the best in FBS: Tyler Boyd (Pitt), Pharoh Cooper (S Car), Will Fuller (ND), Michael Thomas (OSU) and Corey Coleman (Baylor) are all juniors this year. Sanity test: passed.
Remember these guys are all getting at least 10 targets as sophomores for a Power 5 or BCS school. Since that pack doesn't bother spreading out until 20 targets let's reset and from there and see what it says about about the future NFL draft picks versus the future pros in something else.
|As Sophomore||Players||Avg Yds||Avg Tgts||Avg RYPR||RYPR/Tgts|
Simply getting usage at Power 5/BCS team at this point gives you better than a 1 in 4 chance of getting drafted, about the same, we learned in previous studies, as a 4-star recruit. If Darboh was a guy who stood out in that stat I'd be excited, but he was pretty average. Still I'm interested to see what happened to the guys in Darboh's vicinity.
[After the Jump: guys who looked like Darboh]
About Last Week
“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single Butt. “
~ Lao Tzu
The Road Ahead
Oregon State (1-0, 0-0 PAC-12)
Last week: Defeated Weber State, 26-7
Recap: You’re going to have to resist the impulse to skip ahead to the Indiana and Penn State sections. I know why you’re here. You’re here for the snark. But you must be patient. We’ll get there. And in the meantime, there is some important information between here and there.
It’s hard to draw too many conclusions this early, but Oregon State struggling early with an FCS team that finished 2-10 last year does not bode particularly well for the Beavers to make a shocking breakthrough this year. The Beavs were up 6-0 at the half, and while the defense held the Fightin’ Hibachis in check all game (their only score was a pick-6), the offense, and in particular the passing game, were meh. True freshman Seth Collins went 10-18 for 92 yards (5.1 YPA), but managed to pick up 152 yards on 17 carries. Fantastically-named running back Storm Woods averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and didn’t break anything longer than 8 yards.
This team is as frightening as: 2009 Michigan when Denard was under center. Fear Level = 5
Michigan should worry about: Michigan just got done giving up an uncomfortable number of yards on the ground to a quarterback, both this week and, like, this century.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan opens as a 14 point favorite. No team has ever lost when favored by 14 or more points.
When they play Michigan: Presumably Michigan will provide a stouter test than Weber State. Otherwise… let’s just say I haven’t completely ignored the need to prepare a stock of Emergency Bourbon.
This week: @ Michigan, 12:00
UNLV (0-1, 0-0 MWC)
Last week: Lost to Northern Illinois, 38-30
Recap: Maybe this says more about the state of UNLV football than anything, but that looks like a pretty promising result for the Rebels. Even though they gave up 545 yards (including 360 yards passing at 13.8 YPA), they put up 493 yard, and actually had a 17-3 lead late in the first half. They’re probably still a tomato can.
Side note: How are they “the Rebels?” I’m not even asking in a your-mascot-is-probably-not-ideal-in-the-21st-century way. Nevada wasn’t a part of the confederacy. In fact, they joined the Union DURING the Civil War. They were the exact opposite of a rebel. I’m hard-pressed to think of a less fitting mascot, other than maybe the Utah Jazz.
A thing that makes no sense.
This team is as frightening as: Having gas while on a first date. Odds are, you can avoid the problem. But if you let up at the wrong time… Fear Level = 3
Michigan should worry about: Michigan has struggled to some degree with a cupcake non-conference game pretty much every year since 2006. This is the only cupcake game on the schedule, Popular Mechanics commentary notwithstanding. Therefore…
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Did you read the part where they gave up 13.8 yards per pass?
When they play Michigan: You will spend all week talking about Vegas in a Foghorn Leghorn accent. Your friends/classmates/coworkers will think this odd.
This week: vs. UCLA, 10:30 p.m. At home. Wait… wut?
[AFTER THE JUMP: Turtles and Rocks]