4/5/2018 – Michigan 3, Notre Dame 4 – 22-15-3, season over

[Patrick Barron]

John Buccigross freaked out about it. So did Barry Melrose. So did I, when Michigan flung a puck across the slot and Tony Calderone ripped off one of his last trademark snap shots from the slot. This one was a one-timer. An ND defenseman screened the camera from the goal line so I flicked my eyes to the back of the net, where the net would soon bulge in reaction to Michigan's triumph.

Instead, nothing. Buccigross's register cracked glass as my heart sunk. I waited for a replay to see how Cale Morris had desperately flung some extremity or another at the puck and gotten lucky, so I could curse bloody fate.

The replay came, and it was even worse than that: Calderone had plunked Morris in the chest. On a cross-slot one-timer. Because Morris was already on the far post. What the &#*$. That's some Shawn Hunwick business from a guy a half-foot taller. So much for "Cale Morris is a system goaltender."

Half a period later, after the Pastujovs had gritted out a tying goal and overtime seemed inevitable, Michigan did not get a similar save. For ND to get a shot at all after they were apparently trying to run out the period with 16 seconds left deep in their own end is a team-wide thing, but the nature of that shot after Quinn Hughes kind of sort of tied up his man's stick was "mostly harmless."

But for some reason, Hayden Lavigne's attempt to reposition went about as poorly as Morris's went well. He pushed out of the crease vertically, opening up a gap that was less a five hole and more the Seven Nation Army video. The puck dinked his pad and slid to the back of the net.

Ah yes. That old feeling. The burnt, black dirt and grass.

---------------------------

And at least Michigan kind of deserved it? That's all I can say about this tournament format. I don't feel like this was an injustice. They blew a chance to correct various injustices past, for a given definition of "blew." Playing an even-ish game against a really good team and not winning it is… fine? Sort of?

I mean obviously black burnt dirt and grass, but if the difference in this game was having a .945 goalie versus a .910 goalie there can be no complaints to the persistently oafish hockey gods even if the thunderbolt came with five seconds left. From a fan satisfaction perspective I was in fact just happy to be here after one bid in five years, coming off a season in which the only thing keeping them from single-digit wins was, ironically, goaltending that exceeded expectations.

Restoring Michigan back to the juggernaut they were during the 15 prime Berenson years takes time. Michigan is ahead of schedule after the 14-4-1 tear to reach the Frozen Four, and they're back to recruiting like maniacs who want to play maniac hockey.

It feels like the train is coming. Once it is assembled and Michigan loses to Mercyhurst because their goalie makes a mole of saves, I will jump in the bathtub of bourbon and moan that the universe is a simulation created by Knute Rockne. Now I'll just enjoy feeling feelings about hockey again, and having a reason to mope around the house on a Friday with a yawning black pit of despair threatening to send me to my knees every 47.2 minutes.

Sports! Sports are fun!

true center. [Patrick Barron]

Congratulations everybody on breathing through two Final Fours. Meanwhile the football guys are doing football-like things while we wait for scraps to fashion into hope dolls for next season.

We should, then, step back for a moment here and try to enforce some kind of context. Spring football is an oasis of football practice with not the full team, months before the season, and mostly filtered down from coaches to media. Whatever the depth chart is by the end of it won’t be the depth chart in fall. Our feeble efforts to discern things about the team next September are hampered by a general lack of information and the coaches’ preference to keep everybody motivated. Like Harbaugh talked for several minutes on his Attack Each Day podcast this week on the offensive line and managed to name every single guy on it.

Anyway most of this is going to be about quarterback and the offensive line because that’s what we worry about the most and what we got the most about.

Quarterback

What we want to hear: No matter what, things won’t be as bad as last year.

What we’re hearing: Quarterback play should be improved if only because the floor right now is Brandon Peters plus an offseason of maturity. From several reports, regression is not a thing to worry about but challengers are. Depending on your source, McCaffrey is either neck and neck with Peters or slightly ahead. Having watched the Amazon special I think we can interpret that as competition will go into fall and neither young candidate should be counted out. It would be highly stupid to make a prediction right now.

Also Shea has really good ball placement.

What it means: Shea does appear to be the leader even though somebody seems to have shut off the hype valve. We’re going to have to wait until the NCAA committee on whatever reviews the case because Ole Miss is fighting it. My understanding of the Traitorous Losers (nice mascot)’s case is they told all these players there wouldn’t be significant sanctions because they honestly believed they had done nothing wrong because they had done nothing wrong. That defense would be facially ridiculous except hi, this the NCAA, have we met? An encouraging sign is that the NCAA has asked for more information:

Attorney Thomas Mars, who represents Patterson and several other erstwhile Ole Miss players, said the NCAA's request for more information is not uncommon and that he expects Patterson and Michigan will be able to respond in the next few days. Mars said there's no specific timetable for when they expect a final answer, but it's clear "the NCAA isn't dragging their feet on the waiver request and won't take any more time than is necessary."

"I'm encouraged by this particular request," Mars said. "From my perspective, the questions Shea's case manager asked are the right ones to be asking."

My completely unscientific guess is 69.314159% Patterson is cleared this year, and 51.3341% Michigan is fine at quarterback regardless.

[After THE JUMP: a lot to unpack about the offensive line, and who the coaches think is their best player on defense will surprise you and not surprise you]

Ugh. (Patrick Barron)

That ended badly. Michigan outplayed the Irish for the first 10 minutes then survived long enough to stake a two-goal lead at the beginning of the second period. But Notre Dame tilted the ice after that, tying the game with a knuckler and staking a one-goal lead halfway into the third. At that point the Irish tried to suffocate the game and it bit them when the Pastujovs produced a junker behind the wall of golden domes. The game appeared headed to overtime until a complete defensive breakdown with seconds to go. Mel's first season ends disappointingly, but also better than anyone ever hoped.

Offense

As the Irish went into Jackson Lockdown Mode, Michigan gained more possession and a fantastic shift from the Pastujov line resulted in a goal –and a handful of attempts- off of a DZTO. Once the Irish figured out Michigan’s early success, they pretty much clamped down until they Turtled and then got caught.

The Wolverines met their match and somewhat held their own, but their depth was not strong as the game wore down. They produced three goals, felt like they earned two and normally in a game like this that would have would be enough.

Michigan looked really good in the opening ten minutes, and then…pffft…until halfway through the third. Tony Calderone took advantage of a miscommunication in the Irish defense and stepped out of the corner to the dot and beat Morris short-side. Dancs threw a puck at the net in the early second period and was gifted with a goal as Gilbert knocked it behind Morris. Michigan was up 2-0 against a team that struggled to score. Notre Dame all but shut the Wolverines down for the next 40 minutes, though, and clawed into the lead.

[After THE JUMP: The defense was not so great]

THE ESSENTIALS

we hateses rapping hobbits  

THE US

Michigan's opponent is an extremely familiar one: Notre Dame. The teams split the season series 2-2, with an early January Notre Dame sweep followed by Michigan's mid-February riposte. The first series saw Michigan play the then-#1 team in the country dead even, setting up their second half run. The second took Michigan's chances for a tourney bid from distantly possible to all but assured.

One thing this game is certain to be is tight. Tight checking, tight on the scoreboard, tight-sphinctered. Three of the four games were decided by one goal; the fourth was a 4-2 win at Yost. Shot totals from the four games were similarly narrow. After Michigan outshot ND 36-27 in the first game it was a dead heat the rest of the way: 34-36, 36-36, 37-35.  There was only a bit more wobble in shot attempts, with two very even games and one decisive win by each team. Michigan had a very slight edge in attempts from the house per Dave's charting.

Might be worth noting that Michigan was missing Josh Norris and Quinn Hughes from the first of the four games, as both were coming off the WJCs. Adding them did not give Michigan a decisive advantage—the game they missed was in fact Michigan's best from a shot perspective—but this Hughes is not that Hughes.

THE THEM

man playing hockey

Notre Dame is a relentlessly disciplined outfit that relies more on structure and reliability than pew-pew lasers. They've split their top two scorers across two lines, which has been a positive for Michigan since their second unit of Norris-Slaker-Warren is a bunch of two-way players that Michigan sought to match against the Greenway/Tkachuk monster line BU put out.

Top scorer Jake Evans, a senior and 7th round pick, has 11-31-42 on the year. This scouting report on Evans from before last year's Frozen Four is also Notre Dame in a nutshell:

Jake Evans, Jr., C - It takes watching the Montreal Canadiens prospect in all three zones to truly appreciate the impact he has on a game. His 13 goals and 28 assists for 41 points ranks third on the Irish, but it's his complete play as a two-way center that makes him truly special. He is good on draws and responsible throughout the 200 feet of the ice sheet. He does a terrific job of engaging, lifting sticks and disrupting shooting and passing lanes. He is very hard to play against.

He's flanked by sophomore Cam Morrison (8-13-21, second round pick) and freshman Colin Theisen (6-13-19); Morrison is a power forward type who hasn't quite been the scorer ND probably hoped he'd be after a USHL PPG as a 17-year-old.

Line 1A features Cal Burke (13-12-25), the only ND player with double-digit even strength goals, and Andrew Oglevie (13-23-36), their top PP scorer and leading shooter amongst forwards. Dylan Malmquist is an infrequent shooter benefiting from some puck luck to get up to 9-10-19.

It gets thin for ND after their top two lines; the third line has one guy with double-digit points on the season, and the fourth line is actually two guys you'll probably see for five minutes tops; ND has dressed 7 defensemen for most of the season.

As you might imagine for a defensively oriented team, ND's blue line is excellent. Senior Jordan Gross (10-18-28) picks up a bunch of the slack that the middling forward corps leaves when it comes to scoring; while he's not super-dynamic he's got an excellent, accurate point shot and picks his spots well. Andrew Peeke, Matt Hellickson, and Dennis Gilbert are all draftees, and junior Bobby Nardella has an impressive 5-19-24 line.

Taking advantage of scanty opportunities will be crucial, whether that's a power play or an incredibly rare odd-man rush. That goes for both teams. There aren't going to be a lot of Grade A chances out there.

SPECIAL TEAMS

"Stay out of the box" remains so imperative that you might as well get it tattooed on the inside of your eyelids. ND's power play is 10th nationally at 23%, which is bad for Michigan's #57 penalty kill. On the bright side, ND-Michigan games were relatively clean this year. Michigan averaged three (attempted) kills per game instead of the 4 they averaged across the season. Playoff hockey tends to depress calls, which helped Michigan as they faced just four PPs in the regionals.

The other bright reason why "stay out of the box" is so imperative: Notre Dame has just one even strength goal against Michigan this year. Their shooting percentage almost doubles from 7.7 to 14.2 when they get on the power play.

The other side of the coin isn't much more encouraging: ND's penalty kill keeps the puck out of the net 89% of the time, which is second nationally. The disparity is so big here that Michigan getting hauled down without a call early might actually be a good sign if it signals that the whistles will be rare. As much 5v5 as possible, thanks.

GOALIE

Cale Morris leads the country with a .945 save percentage, so they've got that going for them. Morris is undrafted, got just one game a year ago, and had a .906 in his final year in the USHL, so maybe that's more about the team around him than his talent level?

THE KEYS

Stay out of the box! ND isn't as good on the power play as Northeastern but the gap between their scoring rates is probably similar. ND struggles to put up goals at even strength, particularly against this Michigan team.

Quinn, again. Quinn Hughes is by far the best player at this Frozen Four and his ability to jet into the zone and break up the usual monotony of cycling on the boards in the least threatening part of the offensive zone is a crucial advantage Michigan has over an ND team that's extremely adept at forcing dump-ins and making it hard to generate scoring opportunities afterwards. Hughes is now playing 25-30 minutes, during which Michigan should be killing it 5v5.

Hope ND's slide continues. ND's desire to win 2-1 every game worked out great until a couple months ago, when they started dropping a bunch of games. Since that Michigan series in early January ND finished the regular season 5-6-1; while they've gotten back on track in the postseason, their four wins have all been by one goal, two of them in overtime, in games that were dead even by shots. That 67% above from KRACH is bunk, I say.

PREDICTIONS

are stupid

photo via 247Sports

Three-star Clayton (Ohio) Northmont defensive end Gabe Newburg chose an odd time to commit to a school, at least if you want said commitment to get a lot of attention: he announced on Twitter shortly before the national championship game tipped off.

As it turns out, that's because Newburg had a plan. While he and his family are Michigan fans, he wanted to see if Ohio State would come forth with an offer. Per Land of 10, Urban Meyer waffled, and that made the choice simple:

“It went well,” Newburg said of his unofficial visit to Ohio State last Friday. “I watched their practice, went on a tour of the campus, and then talked to Coach Meyer for a little while. He talked to me a lot about how close they were to offering me. We talked for a little while. We’d talk and then he’d turn to one of his assistants and say, ‘I like this kid. We gotta get him.’ He said that a few times.

“He told me to be patient and asked if I could wait a month before committing somewhere else, but I can’t do that, man. I know what I want to do and I’m going to do it. I can’t wait around.”

While one would normally worry about such a commitment sticking, Newburg—who, incidentally, added his Michigan offer recently when he stopped by campus on his way back from East Lansing—went with his childhood favorite:

"That’s a dream offer man. I've been a Michigan fan my whole life," Newburg told 247's Brice Marich upon the offer. "My whole family is actually. I just told him how long I’ve been waiting for this one and showed him pictures of my house on game day and the 'M Den' inside my house. He stood up gave me and my parents a huge hug and said, ‘You guys are my kind of people.' My mom and dad were with me. My dad was very pumped up and my mom got tears in her eyes (when I got the offer).”

He followed up his commitment by lighting up Ohio State's Barstool affiliate, so his Michigan career is off to an excellent start.

Newburg is the seventh commit in the 2019 class and the third at defensive end, joining five-star SDE Chris Hinton and (potentially waffling) top-100 WDE Stephen Herron. Michigan's class now ranks third in the country and first in the Big Ten on the 247 composite rankings.

GURU RATINGS

Rivals and 247 both have Newburg in the middling three-star range, while ESPN hasn't bothered to evaluate him yet (surprise).

The two sites that have evaluated list him at 6'5", 230 pounds (ESPN docks him an inch). He's got a long frame with plenty of room to add weight and could wind up at either weakside or strongside end depending on which skills he develops.

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

Things discussed:

• They ran into a buzzsaw. DiVincenzo reminds us of Clay Thompson.
• It should have been a game but wasn’t a game because Michigan couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn. Someone on that team was going to erupt—someone on ours had to.
• They needed a 40% shooting game to win this, 30% to be in this. That’s not too much to ask for—make their season average and that’s another 12 points.
• The defense was fine—they made Villanova shoot hard shots for all of their points; Nova just happened to make their shots.
• Will you see another Glen Rice? He was ahead of his time—the three was considered unmanly and stupid.
• Could you tell me in November that this hockey team could have been a two seed?
• ND has just one even strength goal against Michigan in four games.
• Quinn Hughes is blowing up into a Hobey-level guy, his brother might accelerate and play a year at Michigan before being the top overall pick in the draft.
• Mel calling out Brian for calling out Mel’s penalty kill.
• Notre Dame is a very disciplined team but nobody in this Frozen Four is good enough that hockey plinko isn’t in effect.
• Michigan dominated Ohio State in both recent matchups except in puck luck.
• How college hockey recruiting has changed: Snake oil was a real thing in college hockey for a long time. Coaches learned to steal each others’ guys but Mel’s not going to put up with gentleman’s agreements, living with the reality of the Canadian juniors. Have to be aggressive down the road because half your class will drift off to OHL/QMHL/JJJoJoCHL/NHL.

----------------------------

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Podbean.

Segment two is here. Segment three is here.

THE USUAL LINKS

• Helpful iTunes subscribe link
• General podcast feed link
• Direct download link
• What's with the theme music?

And anybody who’s seen one hockey game in their entire life—except for one Michigan player apparently—knows that of all the sports the one that most demands the cup is hockey. Can you imagine what went through Mel’s mind when he heard this? Like he’s walking into a new program like ‘alright we’re going to really improve here, what is the current state of our roster?’