I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
This weekly update is for everyone wondering about defensive recruiting after last week's update was all offense. As we get closer to the end of the season we will start to hear more about potential decisions and timeframes for those decisions as well. Right now it's visits and interest for the most part.
5'11", 185 lbs.
Walls' grandma recently fell ill, so he is putting his future visits on hold. He told me earlier that he still plans on visiting MSU, South Carolina, Virginia, and UConn. His decision is a ways off:
I'm not going to make my decision until I've taken all my visits. I don't have a leader yet, I'm not ready to announce that because your mind changes with leaders all the time.
While he has postponed his visits, that didn't mean that Michigan couldn't come out and see him this past weekend.
Michigan sent a coach out to see me on Friday. Greg Robinson, the defensive coordinator, actually spent a good amount of time at my school talking with my coaches.
It was interesting to hear that Greg Robinson was the one that went out to see him since he doesn't make very many trips.
6'2", 281 lbs.
Kevin is a four star defensive tackle that has been hearing more from Michigan and a few other schools lately.
It's been on and off with Michigan, but I'm not upset about it or anything. I understand things change with schools, so it's not too late for them. I really like Michigan and Coach Dews, so we'll see. Florida has also been in contact with me lately, and I want to check them out too.
Tony Dews was out to see Kevin this weekend even though Kevin wasn't playing (injury). Dews also got a chance to see 2011 DB Blake Countess and 2012 WR Stefon Diggs since their team was playing Kevin's. Tony is always mentioned highly among recruits and it seems he's made a good impression with Kevin as well.
Coach Dews is supposed to call me this week, so we'll get to talk more. He's from this area so he understands how certain things are here. He's a good coach, and that program has been through a lot lately. He's a real personable guy. Michigan definitely has a shot because of him, and because they have great academics. I'm still trying to work out my schedule for official visits, so I'm not sure if I'll make it up there. My top list right now is probably UCLA, Oregon, Michigan, Arkansas, and Florida.
That list can definitely change, but Michigan is picking up some ground with Kevin. He's a recruit at a position of need, and has a lot of qualities the coaches really like. He would be a great pickup. Getting that visit set is key.
6'0", 190 lbs.
Fort Lauderdale, Florida
As I said in a recent Weekly Update, Wayne Lyons has Michigan moving up his list. He wasn't sure then if he would make it up to Michigan for a visit, and while he's still not 100%, it's moving in a positive direction for the Wolverines:
I think I will end up taking a visit up there. I'm not sure yet, but I think I am going to visit.
While that's not written in stone, it's a step in the right direction. Without getting him on campus, Michigan probably has little shot to land him. His top school are Stanford, UCLA, Florida, Tennessee, Nebraska, and Michigan. Lyons is another Tony Dews recruit.
- OL Chris Bryant has scheduled his official visit to Michigan for the weekend of The Big Chill hockey game (December 11th). "I want to experience being around the players and interacting with them." He's not sure if his decision will come shortly after the visit, but there is a good possibility that it will. Michigan is still in great position.
- LB Antonio Kinard should find out this week if he will be included in the 2011 class. Originally committed to the 2010 class, Kinard ended up at Hargrave Military Academy. He's waiting to find out if his SAT score is high enough, and if it is he will be enrolling in January.
- WR DeAnthony Arnett received a visit this weekend from Fred Jackson. DeAnthony remains that Michigan is out of his top group, but I have a weird feeling that something's going on. I'm not saying to hold your breath, but Michigan is trying to let him know how much he's wanted.
- S Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix still maintains that he will visit Michigan for the Illinois game and that the Wolverines still have a shot at landing him.
The heat melts their brains. Miami fans are trolls:
You've got me there, Jim Martz.
(Via Jerry Hinnen.)
Further adventures in Remember When Smoking Was Cool And Pregnancy Drankin' jes' fine. Les Miles has done all manner of disqualifying things since the Kirk Herbstreit Miles Hiring Fiasco, before which I was highly in favor of Miles as Michigan's coach and after which I was very upset at Bill Martin. He derped the Ole Miss game and lied about it afterwards. He cut some kid who'd been on campus for a month. Whatever the hell that was at the end of the Tennessee game happened.
Miles is now in the radioactive bin of hypothetical Michigan coaching candidates next to Ron English, Mike DeBord, and Stan Parrish. I'd rather have Brady Hoke around. And yet somehow this is the worst thing he's done since that fateful day on a sailboat:
I'd rather see Simon Cowell as head coach around here.
Quarterback ding monitor. So you may have noticed that three Penn State quarterbacks wandered around the field asking for direction/pudding from the coaches in their win over Minnesota. This is because starter Robert Bolden left the game with "a cut hand" or "a cut hand and an eye poke" or "concussion-like symptoms" or, you know, a concussion. JoePa thought Bolden was questionable at best for next week; JayPa thought he was fine. JayPa's probably right since someone asked Joe about Kevin Newsome and he said "who?" I wouldn't put much stock in this "McGloin might start" headline from the Post-Gazette since it's generic walk-on fluff and the only mention of the injury is this:
Bolden was expected to undergo a series of medical tests Sunday, but Penn State spokesman Jeff Nelson said Bolden's status would not be updated until today at the earliest. If Bolden is unable to play Saturday night at home against Michigan on ESPN, McGloin could get his first career start.
I'm guessing Bolden starts.
Meanwhile at Purdue things just keep getting worse. Third-stringer Rob Henry acquired a "crushed index finger" against Ohio State and Boiled Sports believes that means true freshman Sean Robinson will end up starting when Purdue takes on Illinois next week.
Penn State confidence monitor. They didn't lose against Minnesota but they did get outgained by 70 yards and cough up 400 yards of offense to a team headed for 1-11, so reviews are negative:
-- Penn State made Gopher running back DeLeon Eskridge look like Barry Sanders out there. The Lions missed so many tackles I thought they must have brought the wrong shoes. … -- Lion defense just has no playmakers. … -- In fact, until the fourth quarter, Penn State had precious little success running the ball against a defense ranked 102nd in the nation against the run. Unimaginable, really. … -- Minnesota's 75-yard TD drive to start the second half was so easy I thought I was watching the New Orleans Saints shred the Penn State defense. Very, very scary, folks.
This was a win, but no one was impressed. The line swung from M +2.5 to M –3 based on it, though it's gotten bet back down some since.
It's not that timeout, it's that you still had it. Back to the hat: many people are pointing at Kirk Ferentz going "Les Miles!" in the same manner you would scream "witch!" during a good hysterical mass hallucination after Iowa biffed its clock management good in their 31-30 loss to Wisconsin. Cue defense from Ferentz:
"We wanted to burn the timeout and just go from there," Ferentz said. "I guess we could have gone the other way. Might have saved us two seconds, something like that. I don't think that was exactly the turning point in the game."
Cue Hat reference:
Les Miles might agree.
Iowa fans probably won't.
Ferentz is right—taking the timeout there is not a major factor. But he's not off the hook because he made the most frustrating error coaches make these days now that they don't punt from the opponent's 34 (HINT, NORTHWESTERN): he didn't immediately start calling timeouts when Wisconsin made it first and goal. If Iowa has 40 seconds instead of 12 when the spike/timeout decision is made it's not nearly as big a deal. Always, always get rid of your timeouts on defense if given the opportunity—you will never save more time by holding them.
No, still a punk. In the weeks before the season Ohio State teammate Tyler Moeller said Terrelle Pryor was "kind of a punk" by way of explaining that he was no longer the kind of guy who puts "VICK 3:16" on his eyeblack or talks about how everybody steals from people, murders from people, whatever. Pryor should ban the word "everybody" from his vocabulary:
“Not to take anything away from Wisconsin at all – I really don’t want it to come off like this – but they weren’t better than us,” he said. “Everybody knows that if we play nine out of 10 times, we’d beat Wisconsin.”
Pryor stats: 14/28, 156 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 56 yards rushing on 18 carries. Final score: Wisconsin by 13. I'm sure Michigan would have been better off the last few years with Pryor behind center but right now I'm happy Michigan missed on an unlikeable guy who's not living up to his athletic potential.
The unabated stupidity. Richard Billingsley's computer rankings are even more off the chain than usual this week:
His ballot does not disappoint this week, ranking TCU at No. 1 (three spots higher than any other computer poll) and Missouri at No. 10 -- the Tigers' lowest spot in any computer poll by seven and two places below the less Mizzou-friendly humans. …
In fact, the rule that causes the high and low scores for each team to be thrown out might as well be called the Billingsley Rule -- counting ties, Billingsley ranks 17 of the 25 teams higher or lower than any other computer in the BCS, including being the only one to rank Virginia Tech at all.
At least the discard rule does effectively neuter Billingsley's poll. His poll is maybe 20% as impactful as the other four.
Etc.: You think we have problems? Boston College fired a good coach, hired a career assistant in his sixties named Spaz, is 0-4 in the ACC, and has scheduled Vanilla Ice to participate in something called "Ice Jam." Boston College has problems. EBay watch hits up 1976.
Notes from Rich Rodriguez's Monday meeting with the press.
Denard - "Running-wise, everything's fine. We limited his throwing... Talking to the training staff, he should be able to do everything this week." The bye week helped him get healthy: "Denard can tolerate a lot of pain, but his issue with the last game wasn't the knee, but more the shoulder. He needed some rest, and he got that last weekend."
Martin, Molk, Shaw should all be good. "Mike and David Molk are... they should be good. Mike Shaw should be good as well."
Toussaint - "He did a little bit more last week, but the trainers think he'll be able to go." Not sure whether he'll contribute a lot, because that depends on how the RBs practice this week.
Gardner - "He's doing well. His back has been a little sore, so he's been a little limited." RR couldn't answer whether he'll try to earn a medical redshirt this season, and be a redshirt freshman next year.
Position Moves and the Bye Week
Will Campbell moved to guard, took to OL pretty well. See if he sticks after the first couple days this week. "Personality? I guess that's kind of an interesting way to put it... When we recruited him, I thought 'this is a big guy who can move a bit'" and could play either side of the ball. Will brought it up a bit earlier this year, but coaches wanted to wait for the open date.
"We're still a little thin [at defensive tackle] at times. We're playing around with Quinton Washington helping there a little bit on the defensive side." There's not a lot of time to let guys get established at a new position in just one week.
These position moves aren't permanent yet, they'll see how it goes this week.
Ricky Barnum is #3 guard, which allowed Washington to try DT. He can play all the offensive line positions.
Other moves - nothing substantive. Safeties should be able to play both S positions, Corners both CB positions.
"I think we've identified the guys we think are ready to play. We've gotta get them more ready." Not trying to mix in more new young guys during the bye week. Don't want to slow down the maturing process of some of the young guys, either.
"If anybody on our team could be a great field goal kicker, we'd have already found them and they'd be doing it." Hagerup was a pretty good high school kicker, but he wasn't as good as the other guys in fall camp. Kickers need to work on consistency.
"I'd hope that they have fresh legs a little bit after a couple days off." Enthusiasm may have been lacking in practice a bit, and that will hopefully be back. Coming off a bye, guys are usually more excited to be on the field. "I would think that our guys would be excited to get back out there and play a game."
Did defensive fundamentals improve in the last week? "I hope so. That certainly was our intent, to get better fundamentally." Getting off blocks was a bigger emphasis than working on tackling, which can get guys hurt.
Watched a lot of CFB Saturday, did some PSU prep. Yesterday watched his son play Pop Warner.
PSU healthier now. "Offensively, they've got what's probably gonna be their all-time leading rusher. Rob Bolden is a very talented guy." They have a lot of youth that will improve over the season.
Preparing for 3 different quarterbacks isn't a huge deal. They'll run mostly the same offense no matter who's in there. "We may see all three, I don't know." PSU might run a bit more with Newsome in there.
PSU defense - "They've had a shell of what they wanted to play with because of injuries." They're getting healthy now. Their defensive staff does a great job, and they'll play well against MICH.
"We'll keep them pretty busy" the morning of the PSU game. They'll have a walkthrough, go for a walk with their position coaches, etc. "The hard part - and I'm sure the players feel the same way - is waiting around all day." Night game - "It's a great atmosphere, the crowd is into it, the band plays music, they pipe in music. The night game, they have all day to tailgate, so they're in pretty good spirits."
Nobody will be around as long as Bowden was and JoePa is, because it's a different era now. "I don't know if Joe's record will ever be touched." Paterno knows about his own health, and he's giving the same effort he always has. "What he's done over the years has been remarkable, and so has his staff."
Should the Wolverines play a 2-QB system? "Denard's our starter. There's no controversy or anything like that." He may have "pressed the issue" too much on a couple plays in the last few games, feeling the pressure to make a big play. "He's just a second-year player, and he's going to make more mistakes going forward. The issue is minimizing them." QBs pressure on them because of the defense? "I think they do it naturally because we've had some success offensively, so if we're not scoring on every possession, it's disappointing."
Played poorly in the two losses, but there were positives: moved the ball, but couldn't finish drives, played some pretty good defense, but not enough to get the stops. "You learn: why did we lose? and correct the mistakes." Try to build on the positives, learn from the negatives. "If we just take care of the ball better than the last couple games, even with some of our other issues, we're right there at the end of the game."
Every week is critical. "One thing we want to be sure is that we have consistency in our approach." Tweak practices with focus, etc., but want to maintain the same routine and intensity. "We're gonna play as hard as we can every time... We're playing and they're keeping score, so we're going to play as hard as we can."
What do you think about fans demanding a certain numbers of wins? "I'm not listening." Worries about things he can control.
RR on Cam Newton: "What they do in their spread and ours is somewhat similar and somewhat different." Remembers watching him as a young guy at Florida. He's done a great job improving since then.
Helmet to Helmet - Any time you lead with the crown of your helmet, high or low, should be a penalty. Runners and blockers shouldn't be able to use the crowns of their helmet either.
Promised last week but Wife Day occupied the designated space.
This week's great linebacker debate is about how I'm sitting in a tree with Kenny Demens, finding reasons to posbang him that would not be reasons to posbang Ezeh or Mouton. That's not really how UFR works on defense. A three-yard run is a usually a +1 for the D, a zero-yarder +2, and a TFL +3—though it's context dependent—and I try to assign credit and blame to get to those numbers. There is wobble when the other team makes an error or there's a rock paper scissors play. If I was going to give Demens positive he didn't deserve they'd be coming off his teammates in the front seven and the only guys to suffer relative to expectations were Rotating Ineffective Nose Tackle and the Banks/Black combo.
Mouton also come in for a big minus and clucking, but I thought that was easily justified by the clips provided. If it's not here's another one. It's late in the third quarter and Iowa has third and three from the Michigan eleven. They come out in an unbalanced formation with a covered TE; Michigan responds with a 4-4:
Iowa will run off the right tackle. At the snap Kovacs blitzes. Banks, the DE to the bottom of the screen, takes on a double team from Iowa's LG and RG; Renaldo Sagesse is getting single blocked by the center:
A moment later Banks and Patterson have both gotten in bad situations. Sagesse is a yard downfield and sealed to the inside. Banks has managed to stick at the LOS but he's about to be effectively comboed and sealed to the inside:
Kovacs gets picked off by the fullback. Roh's gotten a cut on the backside but Gordon is flowing behind him; RVB has gotten down the line to cut off a hole; Sagesse is getting buried by a double downfield. Mouton has set up on the Iowa RT as Banks just kind of sits there at the LOS:
Here's an endzone angle of the last moment:
That's a lot of grass to Mouton's right there. I wonder what he's going to do about that:
Dios ffuuuu, man. This will be clearer on the video but this was not some crazy block by the right tackle here—Mouton fought inside of the guy, sealing himself. The sad thing is that Kenny Demens has cleared the trash from the Sagesse double and is showing up in the hole:
If Mouton is outside the guy he's almost certain to tackle short of the first down…
…but he's not:
Another third-down touchdown from the ten given up by a combo of players but especially one in particular; another four points on the board because of a basic mental error from a Michigan defender. This one is ten times more frustrating than Courtney Avery's because Mouton is a fifth year senior who's been doing this his entire career, including earlier this year against UMass on another egregious play that was picture-paged.
- Either Mouton has suffered the worst kind of coaching malpractice during his career or he's just not all there. Or both, I guess. He should not be making this mistake. He has made this kind of mistake dozens of times. Maybe there's something in the scheme that makes it confusing as to when he's supposed to be the contain guy, but I don't think so. WLBs should know this as part of their DNA. There's a theory floating around that Mouton has gotten used to playing next to Ezeh and now assumes he has to do everything himself and may get all clueful now that he's playing with a linebacker that usually shows up in the right spot at the right time, but I don't think so. It doesn't matter who you're playing next to since hopping inside that tackle is guaranteed doom.
- The defensive line didn't do the linebackers any favors… Other than some sporadic help from RVB and Roh this was par for the course. Here the NT is Sagesse instead of Patterson but the end result is similar to what happened all day: effective combo on Banks gets him passively single-blocked and gives Mouton a tackle to deal with. Combo on whoever the NT is crumples and/or seals the guy.
- …but could this actually be something resembling okay from Sagesse? It's not good by any stretch of the imagination but the reason Demens is flowing into the gap unblocked is because the C could not pop off of Sagesse after shoving him downfield. That mess falls in a heap, meaning that the nose has taken out two blockers. I didn't plus the guy because I thought it was more luck than anything and ending a play on your knees two yards downfield doesn't seem like a strategy sustainable in the long term. I didn't minus him either because he kinda sorta just managed to do his job.
- More good Demens play. He doesn't get blocked but because Sagesse is blown off the LOS this isn't the world's easiest scrape. He makes it and should have an opportunity to tackle if everyone else does their job. It's impossible to say whether or not Ezeh would have made the same scrape, but we've seen enough of him to know that he doesn't do it consistently. He might be standing right where he was at the snap, or he might not have the agility and recognition Demens does to get around the garbage. (FTR, Demens did not get a plus here; Mouton was –2, Banks –1.)
We don't know whether or not Demens does execute this consistently, or whether his run-fill gusto is exploitable with misdirection or play action. His Iowa game was promising, though. I'm sure he'll have some wobbly games during the second half—Iowa was not one. I repeat my stat of wonder and alarm: when Demens was on the field runs that did not pop outside contain because of mistakes by Mouton, Black, and Banks averaged under 2.5 YPC. This happened essentially without Mike Martin. Whatever problems existed with the run D had nothing to do with him.
Mouton, meanwhile, is incredibly frustrating. This year he's turned "big positive, bigger negative" into "big negative, bigger positive" but I'm not going to spend 2011 pining for him. Michigan can't and shouldn't pull him since he makes a lot of good plays; I don't think Michigan's run defense is going to suffer greatly without him.
Auburn's win over previously-undefeated LSU is enough to move them into the top spot, and probably stay there until they lose.
There may be a couple inconsistencies here and there, so point them out and I'll try to get most of them corrected for the final ballot (for example, Michigan State might have a better resume than TCU at this point). As always, I'm open to suggestions for better options at the end of the poll.
Resume chart can be found here.
First, a quick note: For all of you diarists who wanted a better way to get at old UFRs, I've added an Upon Further Review Archives to the User-Curated Hall of Fame page. Go forth and discover. Now on with the show...
I tried going without Michigan football this week, and I got a little crazy. I'm ready to admit I have a problem...
I tried to get some football in, heading to my high school alma mater on Friday to watch future Wolverine Shawn Conway not get a ball thrown to him in the Seaholm Maples' 21-7 victory over my Groves Falcons. Stat of the day: current high school girls had on almost as much makeup (2,798 lbs.) as clothing (2,856 lbs.) I'm not complaining out of fuddy-duddyness but envy: I went to high school during the tail end of the grunge era, when about the raciest thing girls would wear to class were inside-out Coed Naked [Professional Occupation] t-shirts.
Which leads me to the real theme of Michigan football this week:
To see why, scroll down to find Six Zero's absolutely epic Wife Day Preview:
- Ann Taylor has coupons of any kind.
- She brings an early Christmas Shopping List
- New stores, with a Grand Opening Sale.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- My wife says “Wow, those surround sound units are amazing.”
- The words “Go ahead and I’ll catch up with you later” are even whispered.
- Live football is being displayed on any television in my basic vicinity.
The post, which instantly made the User-Curated Hall of Fame, has already spawned an Opponent's Press Conference, a post-game flame war on the boards, and a movie! Unfortunately there was no liveblog, but chance of a UFR is 80 percent. To wit: we MGoHusbands didn't spend the weekend with our wives, but we did spend it on a Michigan football blog talking about spending time with our wives, which for those of us in some form of obsession therapy is major progress.
For leaving his credit rating and not a few man cards at a Pennsylvania outlet mall, Six Zero wins Diarist of the Week, which trophy is going in the garage.
Did You Say Michigan Football?
Yes, and let's talk about that...
Little bro is having a good time at our expense, and we're not really sure what year it is, and all of this is really hard to deal with, but it's okay because thanks to BlockM we are now seeing a therapist:
Older Man: Hey kid, I don't know a lot... but you see this? All this shit. It's not your fault.
The older man steps toward the young man and opens the manila envelope. It's full of freep articles and newspaper clippings. The one on top declares the 3-9 season to be the worst of all time. Another can be seen proclaiming the exact number of hours since Michigan beat Ohio State.
Young Man: Yeah, I know that. It's all those stupid injuries.
Older Man: Look at me son. It's not your fault.
Young Man: I know, the recruiting has been bad.
Older Man: It's not your fault.
We also go to Drakeep for a second opinion.
What if I'm Just Afraid of Lions?
LOLZ. No, the ones who wear neckerchiefs and pasted us the last two years.
Oh, those. Don't worry about those...
Fortunately, all things Nittany aren't nearly as terrifying this year, partly because they were Michigan 2008 at quarterback to begin with, and because since then their roster reads like an OSHA report.
If you want more (of course you do -- you're obsessed, right?) MGoDiarists have provided.
User kb starts us off with a predictive win model (which--SPOILER--predicts WIN!) using a combination of tempo-free stats. Our PREDSCORE is 1.21, good for fifth (behind OSU, MSU, Iowa and Wisconsin) in the Big Ten. Penn State (-0.88) is 8th.
Nonnair also noticed something interesting: Penn State seems to do most of its passing on 1st down:
Based on these stats, occasional watching of PSU games, and poring over their play-by-play sheets this year, this Penn State team throws deep almost exclusively on first down, and has found success that way for TDs in three of the past four games.
- Daryll Clark (Half-Brady/Half-Duck?) is gone.
- If it's gonna happen, it'll happen quickly.
Quit the Psychobabble and Give Me Statistics!
With the bye week things were a little light in the MGoMath department, but some of the usual suspects came on with post-Iowa updates.
Enjoy Life came in with his excellent updates using national rankings that actually mean something (stern look, BCS), where he shows us the Michigan who lost to MSU and Iowa is still pretty much the same Michigan that torched Bowling Green:
... Based on these rankings, M maintains a 43% chance for a +5 WLM (9-4 or better) season and an 83% chance for a winning season.
As for what's different now than three weeks ago, Enjoy Life has you covered on that too. In a single word: "turnovers." In a thousand words:
Throw ball to wrong team = please return expectations to 7-5.
But We're Gonna Be Awesome in the Future, Right?
Well, that depends on a lot of things. There was a really good board discussion this week by cypress on a best-case scenario for next year's defense. It wasn't bumped to Diary, but when you include all the responses it's about on that level, and includes several responses that could have been diaries themselves. Read so you know what to be rooting for.
Usually I don't bother sharing things written by the MGoStaff, and this will get covered again in Tim's Wednesday Recruiting, but I would be remiss if I didn't bring up TomVH's best-guess diary. For those of you who have just a passing (i.e. healthy) level of interest in the next crop, this is for you, since it gives a general overview of the guys Michigan is likely to add next year. Short-short version, the 2011 class will be something kinda like this:
In meta-recruiting, MGoBlog has great luck in finding All American diarists, but because we're college football fans, of course we're always on the lookout for the next big thing. My bold prediction: this guy tasnyder01, who created his account just 8 days ago, will one day join the ranks of the Great, Bored, and Need to Share Our Thoughts. He made his diaretic debut this week when I bumped his UFR of Kenny Demens from the board, and he posted that just two hours after a comprehensive rundown of secondary losses that I almost bumped as well. He's still really raw, but if our coaches can teach tasnyder01 to use a WYSIWYG editor we might have a future Diary All Star on our hands. You heard it here first.
- Communist Football continued his regular series, tracking Michigan, Big Ten, and NCAA records likely to get Denarded.
- Your weekly Week in Pillow Fights by stubob is back this..uh...week.
- Wereverine reminds us that Sweatervest locking up Ohio talent is probably more worrisome for Michigan than anything happening in-state.
Stay sane, people, or else end up like Penn State fans; you'll get to meet them this week.