that is a BHGP thing obvs
Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.
by Nick RoUMel
Observations from Evanston:
1. I was there with ex-Punt and two friends. I hear Heiko and Brian were there as well, but I did not see them. I have met Heiko once, and Brian twice. Brian is sort of like the guy in Charlie’s Angels, where you only see the back of the chair and his hands. Or the guy who played George Steinbrenner in Seinfeld, when he was George’s boss:
2. We went to a bar before the game, and 95% of the people there were Michigan fans. Was it a special, Michigan ex-pat bar? No. They just happen to live there. Remember the Chicago area hosts perhaps the largest contingent of Michigan alums in the world. There were so many people at the game in Michigan gear that people didn’t even bother saying “Go Blue” to each other. Most of the east side and south end of the stadium were blue.
3. They apparently don’t allow parking on people's lawns near Ryan Field. You can park in a driveway and that’s it. We enriched a family by an extra $20 by surreptitiously going in the back alley way and parking by the swing set and trampoline.
4. Ryan Field is a glorified high school stadium. The concessions area basically consists of a volunteer organization grilling burgers on open grates, with folding tables in front. There is one bathroom per 40 yards of field. The video screen is essentially a 72” large screen TV at the north end and shows commercials. And despite the modest crowds, there is a ferocious bottleneck, because there is only one tunnel - no wider than Rob Ford - that serves six sections as well as the visiting locker room.
“Get cracking and beat Iowa!”
5. As we were lingering by the bottleneck at halftime, Al Borges walked right past us. We could have easily taken him out. He’s short, and no wider than Rob Ford.
6. Devin Gardner is a gamer. He takes a beating and wills himself to lead the offense in spite of the aforementioned Mr. Borges. He’s the kind of guy who would run out of the foxhole to divert the gunners while you and your sorry ass retreat into the woods.
7. While we’re on the subject of combat analogies, I have to comment on Northwestern’s military uniforms. I am here to report that “Integrity” committed a personal foul, “Courage” ducked a couple of blocks, and “Duty” forgot an assignment.
8. Going for it on 4th down late in the game, instead of kicking the tying field goal, was stunningly wrong. This from a person who thinks teams should go for it on 90% of 4th downs. This was one of the other ten percent. That thrilling game tying field goal could have been the game winner, and we were fortunate to skate out of there with the win.
[ed: YOU ARE WRONG, AND I THINK YOU ARE WRONG]
9. As we exited through that bottleneck, after four hours in the cold, windy rain, there were no boasts of “It’s great – to be – a Mich-i-gan Wolverine.” However, I did hear a few “It’s a relief – to be –” and “It’s better than a sharp stick in the eye – to be –”
“It’s Great! (OW) To Be! (OW)”
10. There is an old Punt-Counterpunt trick, that when you have nothing clever to say about the upcoming game, to instead write about the week before. I for one think it is a fine trick.
But if you want my take, here it is. Iowa will beat us on both sides of the line. Our defense will keep them from making big plays, but they will plod us to death. Those hayseed homers will jeer at us mercilessly, and make us wish we hadn’t driven 450 miles to die in a cornfield. Not even the courageous Devin can save us this time:
IOWA 19, MICHIGAN 14
By Heiko Yang
Observations of the Northwestern game from Ann Arbor:
Yeah, I watched the game in Ann Arbor. Why does Punt think I’m in Evanston? Oh. He asked me if I was in town, and I said yes. I assumed “in town” meant Ann Arbor. Sorry, Punt, but just know that if Michigan wins this game, it’s because Ace and I took one for the team and decided not to go.
Boy, watching this game is a lot more bearable in a living room than it would be in a press box. I miss being able to swear loudly.
Isn’t it some kind of a felony to tackle an American flag to the ground?
Oh my god, a bubble screen! Am I the only one who thinks it’s weird that Funchess of all players is the guy catching these? The whole point of getting the ball out quickly to an uncovered slot receiver is that he can make a guy miss in the open field. Lining up a humongous quasi tight end in the slot is just so indicative of Michigan’s attachment to manball. Even when they spread things out, they still plan on running right into you.
I’m watching the game with a Northwestern fan. He was supposed to be playing a drinking game. Now he’s just drinking. Northwestern fans are the best.
Devin Gardner looks like a guy who fell off his bike and decided to forget how to ride it. What happened to the guy dissecting defenses with ease and was on pace for 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns? These days it looks like things have regressed to the point where he’s on the “Denard” plan, where Borges basically gives him one read, and if that guy isn’t open, he’s supposed to run.
The defense is disciplined and rarely caught out of position. Against a team like Northwestern that screws with your keys, that’s a great sign. Unfortunately against Iowa it will be a different story. Iowa’s not designed to get yards by catching a defense off balance. They prefer to win one-on-one matchups, where things like “toughness” and “fundamentals” start mattering more. I’m not sure how well a freshman defensive end playing interior defensive lineman is going to hold up against that.
But hey, Heininger Certainty Principle, am I right?
Michigan has established a positive-yardage running game, which is great. It needs to be able to use that and take some balls downfield against Iowa in order to have a chance to win at Kinnick. The good news is Iowa’s vanilla defense is usually pretty passive and probably not going to blitz the crap out of Gardner on passing downs. The bad news is … Well the bad news is Michigan just has a terrible offensive line and a terrible road offense. Gardner doesn’t need to be blitzed to get sacked.
But I’m supposed to be positive, so I’m going to say Jeremy Gallon recovers from a couple late-game drops to torch B.J. Lowery (against whom I still hold a grudge for the uncalled pass interference on Roy Roundtree on the last play of the game two years ago) for a pair of touchdowns to give Michigan a narrow victory.
MICHIGAN 20, IOWA 17.
Via Diehard Sport
The first half confirmed everyone's worst fears. Michigan couldn't handle Florida State's size on either end of the floor, repeatedly getting caught in mismatches defensively while failing to get to the rim offensively. The Wolverines trailed 37-27 at the break, and a 6-0 FSU run to start the second half had the game on the verge of blowout territory.
Michigan gradually worked their way out of the 16-point deficit, however, thanks to three things: John Beilein's defensive adjustments, Mitch McGary rounding into form, and Nik Stauskas leaving no doubt regarding the identity of this team's go-to scorer.
It started defensively, as Michigan switched from playing exclusively man-to-man in the first half—allowing FSU to exploit their significant size advantage—to a brief dalliance with the 2-3 and a full-blown love affair with the 1-3-1, which led to seven second-half turnovers and got the offense going in transition. It also allowed Caris LeVert, who was attacked repeatedly on the interior in the first half, to become a disruptive force at the top of the zone; he was credited with two steals and generally wreaked havoc defensively.
McGary finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds (7 offensive) with three assists and two blocks, and aside from some trouble finishing at the basket (6/15 from the field) he looked like the McGary of last season's NCAA tournament, crashing the boards with aplomb, affecting shots at the rim, and even leading the fast break. He even tallied an assist with a behind-the-back pass in transition that bounced twice before reaching Stauskas, who calmly sunk a three to cut the Seminoles lead to six; naturally, the fast break opportunity came off a McGary steal.
Then there was Stauskas, who finished with a career-high 26 points despite shooting just 7/16 (3/8 3-pt) from the field. After forcing some questionable perimeter shots in the first half, Stauskas found his rhythm in the latter stanza by repeatedly attacking the basket and taking contact—he finished 9/12 from the line. When Michigan found themselves down by two with 11 seconds to play in regulation, John Beilein entrusted Stauskas to make a play, and his trust was rewarded: Stauskas declined a high ball screen from McGary when he saw an opening, drove hard to the baseline, and finished with a layup to send the game to overtime.
Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III, who had a relatively quiet game otherwise, led the way in the overtime period. Stauskas buried a three and added four points from the charity stripe, while Robinson sunk two pull-up jumpers to account for 11 of Michigan's 13 points in the extra period. The Wolverines had to sweat out a desperation heave after Derrick Walton missed two free throws with a chance to ice the game; while FSU's prayer hit the backboard (ack!) it harmlessly bounced well wide of the rim.
The concerns brought forth in the first half still stand, of course; Michigan has traditionally had trouble with very big teams, and Florida State was no exception. The fact that they adjusted so well in the middle of the game this early in the season, however, cannot be ignored; it's entirely possible that the Wolverines just stumbled upon their ideal defense going forward. McGary is doing better than anyone could've reasonably expected while playing his way into shape, Stauskas has taken the mantle as the team's go-to scorer, and a young team showed plenty of fight when they could've simply folded. We may look back at the second half as a critical turning point en route to another special season.
First, however, Michigan must get past Charlotte on Sunday at 6:30 EST to take home the Puerto Rico Tipoff title.
Yes, a 16-point second-half comeback featuring brilliant adjustments to overcome major matchup issues against a good team merits the full Muppet treatment. We're in dire need of them, anyway.
And you can't have one without the other...
Recap of this one will be up shortly. Short version: WOOOOOO STAUSKAS/MCGARY
|WHAT||Michigan vs. Florida State|
|WHERE||Coliseo Roberto Clemente, San Juan, Puerto Rico|
|WHEN||5 p.m. Eastern, Friday|
|LINE||Michigan –3 (KenPom)|
Right: Forward Okaro White is a major matchup problem for Michigan.
The Puerto Rico Tipoff did not go according to plan yesterday; not only did Charlotte and Northeastern pull off upsets against Kansas State and Georgetown on the other side of the bracket, but Florida State broke VCU's vaunted Havoc press time and again en route to an 18-point victory. Michigan ended up being the only favorite to win their game on either side of the bracket.
While VCU's exit means Michigan doesn't have to face a hellacious press while breaking in a freshman point guard, Florida State presents their own matchup issues—namely, size, as the Seminoles's shortest rotation player stands at 6'3". The 'Noles make up for an average-ish offense with an exceptionally good defense, utilizing that length to force a ton of turnovers and tough shots.
It makes sense to start discussing the personnel in the frontcourt, then. The starting center is 7'3", 235-pound sophomore Boris Bojanovsky, who's mostly just a rim-protector at this stage in his career; he only plays around 30% of the team's minutes, a little less than 7'1", 292-pound(!) backup center Michael Ojo, whose rebounding and block rates would be among the nation's leaders if he played enough minutes. Neither player packs much scoring punch, but they're not asked to do a whole lot offensively aside from pulling in rebounds.
6'8" forward Okaro White is another excellent rebounder, especially offensively, and shot-blocker (nine in four games); unlike the center duo, he's also a very adept scorer, averaging 15.5 points per game while starting the season a white-hot 20/28 on two-pointers. He converted nearly 70% of his shots at the rim last season, per hoop-math.com, and he also has a decent mid-range game. White is quite turnover-prone, an issue that plagues much of this team.
Rounding out the frontcout is 6'9", 220-pound senior Robert Gilchrist, who plays a limited role in the offense; so far this season, he's done well when called upon to score, hitting 11/17 two-pointers and 2/4 three-pointers, though he's 0/6 from the free-throw line. He's another player to watch when Michigan gets into the paint, as he's already tallied six blocks.
6'7", 216-pound sophomore Montay Brandon is the team's starting shooting guard, and despite playing amongst a forest of redwoods he leads the team with an impressive 20% defensive rebound rate. He put up 14 points and 11 rebounds against VCU last night and displayed a knack for getting to the line, though he's struggled to convert once he gets there—last night, 4/9 from the charity stripe, and he connected at just under a 50% rate last season.
6'3" sophomore point guard Devon Bookert is a pretty good representation of this team as a whole; pretty big for his position, an excellent rebounder for his position (4.5 per game this year), and a good defender, but also a guy who struggles with turnovers (13:14 assist-to-turnover ratio). Bookert is an excellent outside shooter (32/61 last year, 7/15 to start the season) and free-throw shooter; if early returns hold, he's also improving as a finisher inside the arc.
Despite covering the entire starting lineup, we've yet to get to FSU's leading scorer on the season: 6'3" senior guard Ian Miller, who's averaging 17 points per game and poured in a career-high 22 (along with seven rebounds) last night. Miller plays about 2/3 of the team's minutes and is currently shooting at rates well above his career averages, including a 93% mark at the free-throw line while drawing a ton of fouls.
FSU's other key backup is 6'5" sophomore guard Aaron Thomas, who plays just about as many minutes as Miller. Thomas is fourth in the country in steal rate, posting 14(!) in four games, and he's done most of his work offensively inside the arc, shooting 65% at the rim while taking almost 75% of his shots from that range. He's one of four Seminoles—joining Brandon, Miller, and White—to be ranked nationally on KenPom in free throw rate, and thus far this season he's connected on 12/16 shots from the line.
VCU (#25 on KenPom) is easily FSU's best win on the season; their other three victories came against #254 Jacksonville, #106 UCF, and #343 Tennessee Martin.
Four factors, with obvious sample size caveats applying (national ranks in parentheses):
|eFG%||Turnover %||Off. Reb. %||FTA/FGA|
|Offense||58.3 (22)||25.7 (344)||37.0 (75)||59.2 (32)|
|Defense||40.1 (18)||24.4 (15)||32.0 (171)||31.3 (45)|
The offense would be very good if they weren't coughing the ball up at such a high rate; as it is, their extremely fast pace (20th in adjusted tempo) covers for the fact that their offense is only average in terms of efficiency. The defense forces nearly as many turnovers as the offensive gives up, however, and they do so while making life extremely difficult for opposing shooters; teams are hitting just 39.3% of twos (19th nationally) and 27.8% of threes (66th) through four games against the Seminoles.
BOX OUT. If you watched yesterday's game against Long Beach State, you saw Michigan—aside from Mitch McGary—get away with not putting a body on anybody. That won't work out so well against a team of giants, and giants with good rebounding instincts at that. If the Wolverines don't shore up their defensive rebounding, this could turn into a dunk parade for FSU. This game is a huge test for Glenn Robinson III in particular; can he hold up against this much size defensively, or is John Beilein going to be forced to play bigger lineups—limiting Michigan offensively—in order for the team to tread water on the interior?
Stay calm, young Walton. Derrick Walton has shown a lot of promise this season; he's still a freshman point guard, however, and so far this season he's had a bad habit of getting caught up in the opponent's pace. Against a team that turns it over as much as the 'Noles, not to mention such a good defensive team, he's got to know when to attack in transition and when to back off and run the offense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Spike Albrecht end up getting more minutes tonight but for the fact that it's extremely difficult to hide a 5'10" guy out there defensively against FSU; Walton is much better equipped to hang with Bookert on that end of the floor.
Unleash Big Puppy. Beilein limited Mitch McGary to just 14 minutes last night, almost certainly with an eye on keeping him fresh for tonight's game. McGary has to be an animal on the defensive boards this evening; his ability to force turnovers and get this team out in transition—where they've been much better than when they're working the offense in halfcourt sets—is also going to be critical; both FSU centers are very turnover-prone, as are their two starting forwards. Against a team that is so difficult to score on when they can set up their halfcourt defense, Michigan needs to take any opportunity they can to run out, and that all starts with McGary's outlet passing and defensive activity.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 3
|WHAT||Michigan vs Iowa|
Iowa City, IA
|WHEN||Noon PM Eastern
November 23th, 2013
|THE LINE||Iowa -6|
|WEATHER||mostly sunny, mid-20s 0% chance of rain
20 mph winds
When the native Iowans realized their state had been abducted by a race of soulless aliens attempting to figure out how our morality worked, they banded together in rebellion. Praying to the great old ones, they struck a terrible bargain: in exchange for freedom and return to Earth and music videos with hot Korean girls making out with Iowa paraphenalia, they would offer up the fecundity of the land. The great old ones were big Mouse Davis fans and thought three yard runs were boring, so they demanded the finest tailback in all Iowa, delivered semiannually.
Eventually, the Greatest, Oldest One was hired as the offensive coordinator. Also, Iowa's defense is much better this year after a flailing period in the immediate aftermath of Norm Parker's departure.
Run Offense vs Iowa
Anthony Hitchens finishes tackles with devastating obituaries of his victims
This existed against Northwestern! Let the sweet taste of reasonable output from tailbacks dissolve on your tongue. And then try to remember it, forever, in case it never happens again.
Iowa is an odd team to read here, as they've been mostly permeable on the ground but utterly crushed Purdue (okay, no surprise there) and Big Ten Power™ Minnesota. The Gophers were held to 30 yards on 27 attempts, and while you should remove sack yards that gets them to about 2 yards a carry, which is completely terrible. Purdue did… it does not matter what Purdue did. Never mind.
In between these dominating bookends, though, Iowa has been kind of bad. Sack-adjusted numbers:
- vs Michigan State: 37 attempts, 135 yards, 3.7 YPC
- @ OSU: 49 attempts, 283 yards, 5.8 YPC
- vs Northwestern: 46 attempts, 234 yards, 5.1 YPC
- vs Wisconsin: 44 attempts, 223 yards, 5.1 YPC
Ace tracked Iowa's performance against NW inside zone plays and found that the same Northwestern offensive line that couldn't move Michigan at all found quality output against the Hawkeyes:
The Wildcats amassed 69 yards on 14 inside zone runs (4.9 ypc) and gained at least three yards on all but one of them.
Dare we cock an eyebrow at what statistics say is the #29 YPC rush defense in the country and suggest that Michigan might have success against them? We might. There's a huge divide between traditional stats (in which Iowa is 9th in total yardage) and advanced ones, where Iowa's defense is slightly better than as Michigan's offense. Yeah… think about that.
Michigan achieved its success against the Wildcats by dumping the idea of a pulling lineman, going primarily with inside zone, and frequently threatening the bubble screen to keep Northwestern's slot linebacker out of the picture. This gave Michigan the opportunity to execute extended double teams on the Northwestern DTs and resulted in a lot of five, six, seven yard runs as Michigan got a hat on everyone in the box.
Iowa is a team that this can work on as well. They prefer to slide their linebackers and play zone, and they like to keep their safeties deep—both of them. Assuming that Iowa puts their top corner BJ Lowery over Gallon, that would leave a box comprised of a not-very-good defensive line, two linebackers, and freshman corner Desmond King, and then it's on James Morris and Anthony Hitchens to make very good plays unless the DTs can hold up. They are pretty good, those two guys, but Michigan can keep their scheme from the most recent game and succeed with it unless Iowa makes a significant change to what they do.
Which is totally possible, because Kirk Ferentz pulls out all the stops against Michigan and Ohio State. But even when he does that, the defense remains the defense. Here is a note of cautious optimism that Michigan's run game will function.
Key Matchup: Michigan guards versus executing doubles well. Michigan should ride with the inside zone against a DL that can get pushed around; getting depth there opens up other possibilities, like the stretch and those throwing things
[Hit THE JUMP for MORE HOT KOREAN GIRLS (actually just more of this year's football team) BUT PROBABLY HOT KOREAN GIRLS]
This 'Merritt's Mention: How much punning has David Merritt had to put up with? Not enough that he balked at calling his fashion-brand-for-a-cause "Merit." The store donates a fifth of its revenues to college scholarships and educational enrichment programs, and he just opened one in Ann Arbor.
We Start Up Front. In 2009 Michigan started off pretty strong, including an encouraging win over Notre Dame. Maybe the shaky backfield got a little beat up for want of a safety or two but hey: Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. Then it got worse. Then it got worser. Then it got awful. And then there were lots of diaries (myself among them) blaming attrition and poor recruiting on the old coaches and all sorts of things that could explain it other than "this is what will get our coaches fired."
So…offensive line diaries.
A Single Unified Theory of Offensive Lineptidute? Provided by Yeoman and bumped early last week, "Short Ride in a Broken-Down Machine" is the definitive study relating Michigan's offensive issues to young starters on the interior OL. As to the small correlation he had a great answer:
Given those enormous differences in baseline levels of the various FBS teams it's amazing to me that we could see anything like 5-8% of a performance difference being credited to any one team demographic, especially when the difference is measured using an SOS-adjusted metric like Fremeau.
The rubber really hits the pavement when he thought to compare teams to their historical norm, which is a quite elegant stand-in for expectations (including recruiting). Ultimately he found teams that have significant depth and start freshmen are just fine because the freshmen are just that good, but teams in Michigan's situation typically have very large systemic problems. Because fans tend to overstate, there's a reactionary tendency from the more rational among us to think "it's probably not as bad as it looks." Reality check: it's as bad as if we had Idaho's recruiting problems. Yeoman did throw some hope for next year in the comments:
(1) [OTs Do Matter Theory] The Bust Index for the entire line will improve from 75% to 65%, which would improve oFEI by about .06 and move us (all else being equal which of course it isn't) up about ten spots, or
(2) [OTs Don't Matter Theory] The Bust index for the interior will improve from 69% to 46%, which would improve oFEI by about .175 and move us up about about 20 spots.
He followed up with a Kalis-centric study that tracks every (non-juco) 5-star offensive lineman since 2003 and what contributions that player made in Year X. Findings are the good ones mostly started by Year 2, but that there's no cause to worry until they're not starting in Year 3. Actually the biggest thing to worry about is how few actually make good on their promise, not that Kalis hasn't yet. Diarist of the Month, this guy.
Third Down and Guh. The guy in the running with Yeoman is reshp1, who had a great OL diary two weeks ago, and this week decided to get into all those failed 3rd downs. It's UFR-long, so if you promise to read it (okay if you promise to skim through it) I'll share the money table here. Promise. PROMISE! You know what, fine, I'll put it after the jump, so you still have to click on something you lazy straw man of a dear diary reader.