I did not make this headline up
Image via FridayNighOhio.com
After pretty much letting the cat out of the bag on Twitter yesterday, Massillon (OH) Washington cornerback Gareon Conley confirmed today that he has committed to Michigan ($). He becomes the 15th commitment in the class of 2013—the 13th to earn a four-star rating on at least one recruiting site—and the second cornerback, joining Cass Tech's Jourdan Lewis.
4*, #20 CB,
|NR CB||NR CB||3*, 88, NR CB|
Conley is flying under the radar to every service save Scout, though it's worth pointing out that Scout has updated their rankings most recently of the four. The sites are evenly split as to whether he's 6'1" or 6'2", and all agree that he's between 165 and 170 pounds. Considering Michigan wanted a bigger cornerback to add to the class and complement Jourdan Lewis, that's a pretty solid frame.
Bucknuts ranked Conley as the #16 player in Ohio for the class of 2013, one spot in front of Taco Charlton and two spots ahead of Mike McCray (this means you can probably expect him to move up when 247 updates their rankings). A concern about taller cornerbacks is usually their overall athleticism and fluidity in the hips, but neither is an issue according to Mark Porter ($):
“I think he may be the best pure corner in Ohio. His ball skills are second to none. His range and athletic ability are second to none. He can match up with the number one receiver. The trait that Cam (Burrows) has over him is he may be more physical. But Gareon is ‘twitchier’ in the hips.”
Scout's group of Midwest analysts also has Conley ranked as the #16 player in the state, and Allen Trieu had some high praise in his evaluation ($):
I may disagree with Bill's statement on Munger [that he's the best player in Ohio nobody has heard of], because this might be the best kid in Ohio no one's talking about. He's long, smooth, can run, and shows good ball skills and smarts. He makes plays in zone and in man coverage, and although he definitely needs to add weight, he's a solid tackler as well.
Scout's Bill Greene questions Conley's size—though I assume it's about his weight; his height is an unquestioned positive—but echoes the sentiments about his athleticism and coverage ability ($):
A fine basketball player as well, Conley has the skill set to succeed at the next level. Although not blessed with great size, he has shown the willingness to come up and hit in run support. His best strength would be his coverage ability, and his speed. Very similar player to Canton McKinley's Jermaine Edmondson, who signed with Michigan State.
Finally, Massillon Washington assistant coach Jamie Palma notes that Conley's coverage ability is exemplary considering his height, making him an ideal matchup against larger receivers ($):
“One thing you don’t see a lot of is guys that can defend and can play corner at 6-2,” said Palma. “Most corners are 5-9 or 5-10… maybe six foot. He is a good 6-2 with a real long wingspan. So what I think he does is he brings that size out there at corner that you normally don’t see. You think you are going to have a mismatch when you see a lot bigger wide outs. He matches up better with those types of players.”
As you can see, Conley's biggest assets are his athletic ability and coverage skills given his size. Once he adds some weight, he should be able to match up quite well against bigger receivers while still having the speed and agility to hang with quicker players.
When he committed, Conley also held offers from Northwestern, Toledo, and West Virginia. According to 247, Cincinnati, Indiana, Ohio State, Virginia, and Wisconsin also showed interest.
In 2011, Conley recorded 26 solo tackles, three TFLs, a sack, nine pass breakups, and four interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown. He put up those numbers despite playing a large portion of the season while wearing a cast due to a wrist injury.
FAKE 40 TIME
Bucknuts credited Conley with a 4.5, which I'll give three FAKEs out of five—he's reportedly pretty fast, but that sounds like just an estimation or hand-timed run.
Junior highlights [RATHER LARGE PUNTER ALERT AT THE :15 MARK]:
I've seen this pointed out elsewhere, but it bears repeating: his long stride bears an uncanny resemblance to Steve Breaston's.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Conley brings somethat that no other corner on the roster will by the time he shows up on campus, and that is size. Of the CBs on the current roster, only J.T. Floyd breaks the 6'0" barrier, and he'll be gone after the 2012 season. If Michigan wants a taller cornerback—and somebody who can come up in run support—to play the "field" corner (wide side of the field, as opposed to the "boundary"), Conley could see action early in his career.
That said, he's going to have to add some weight first. 170 pounds is quite skinny for a 6'2" frame, and if Conley is going to match up with bigger receivers, he's going to need to add some muscle. He has two years to do just that, so we'll see how he looks when he shows up on campus. If he takes a redshirt year, he should be right in the mix for a starting spot across from Blake Countess in 2014, likely competing with a trio of Cass Tech grads in Delonte Hollowell, Terry Richardson, and Jourdan Lewis.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
Michigan is now almost certainly done recruiting at cornerback for 2013, barring a player like five-star Kendall Fuller deciding to come on board. They may be done recruiting the secondary entirely, as taking another safety to go along with Dymonte Thomas isn't imperative; again, however, a top talent like Su'a Cravens would have a spot available.
The Wolverines can now focus on bringing aboard a second tailback, one or two receivers, a nose tackle, and a strongside DE. After that, IN EARLY MARCH, the coaching staff can focus almost entirely on targeting the top players in the class and shifting their focus to the class of 2014. Jebus.
Today's recruiting roundup takes a look at who is—and just as importantly, who isn't—going to be on campus this weekend. Also discusses: new offers in both the '13 and '14 classes, expected future visitors, and a couple of TEs coming off the board.
All week, there have been strong indications from wide-ranging sources that this weekend would bring in at least one commit for the Wolverines, and the picture is beginning to clear up a bit. First, let's go over the weekend visitors:
- Joliet (IL) Catholic RB Ty Isaac—offered, top RB on the board.
- Massillon (OH) Washington CB Gareon Conley—offered, Michigan leads, and though he denies being ready to commit, rumors are still flying ($, info in header).
- Damascus (MD) WR Zach Bradshaw—offered.
- New Lenox (IL) Lincoln-Way West OL Colin McGovern—offered, but aware Michigan is full at O-line. Is visiting anyway, because this is Michigan, fergodsakes.
- Washington (DC) Gonzaga CB Devin Butler—offered, told GBW he "wouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger early," if he's comfortable with a particular school ($). [EDIT: Butler is visiting later this month, not this weekend. My bad, y'all.]
- Cincinnati (OH) LaSalle CB Jaleel Hytchye—not offered, though that reportedly will be discussed when he's on campus; if he gets one, he says Michigan will shoot to the top of his list ($).
- Novi (MI) Detroit Catholic Central DE Dylan Roney (2014)—sophomore teammate of Matt Godin and Wyatt Shallman. Will be interesting to see if he gets an offer this early in the process.
That's quite an interesting group, especially at cornerback, and the intrigue deepens with Isaac when paired with the knowledge that (1) Shane Morris will be on campus, undoubtedly putting on the full-court press, and (2) Warren (OH) Howland RB DeVeon Smith is visiting on March 17th, and there have been multiple indications that he's strongly considering a commitment. We'll see if that latter bit of news affects Isaac's timetable—there is no timetable—and if Smith commits, whether the coaches would be comfortable potentially taking both players. With Wyatt Shallman's ability to play DE, I wouldn't be surprised if they did.
Perhaps bigger news than the list of who's on the visitor list is who's not on the visitor list. The coaches seem very confident that Ben Gedeon will be blue in the near future, as they turned away four-star linebackers Alex Anzalone and Shane Jones, both of whom were planning weekend visits before being told the position group is full. Gedeon visited last weekend and is mulling over his decision. He may not be mulling for much longer. (Note, to head off the inevitable question: I don't believe this changes the situation with E.J. Levenberry at all. The coaches have maintained they'll take two linebackers and reserve an extra spot for him as one of the top overall prospects on the board.)
One player deciding this weekend who probably won't be choosing Michigan is Rancho Cucamonga (CA) CB Chris Hawkins, who hasn't visited Ann Arbor and will decide on Saturday between the Wolverines, Stanford (the prohibitive favorite), Cal, UCLA, Oklahoma and Notre Dame ($).
Offers, Future Visits, Etc.
Michigan put out a few offers recently, including one to the massive son of a former NFL offensive lineman:
- Mesquite (TX) West Mesquite four-star WR Eldridge Massington received offers from Michigan and Notre Dame this past week ($, info in header). He had planned on making a spring decision, but he now wants to visit Ann Arbor and is pushing back his timetable to accomodate that. Interest is high.
- 2014 Detroit Loyola DE Malik McDowell added the Wolverines to his offer list—now at two, along with Syracuse. McDowell is already 6'5", 260 pounds as a sophomore and came away with top honors from the recent Elite Big Man Camp.
- 2014 Suwanee (GA) Peachtree Ridge OL Orlando "Zeus" Brown, son of the late NFL offensive lineman Orlando Brown, picked up a Michigan offer on Tuesday. He is, in a word, titanic: Rivals's Keith Neibuhr said he's 6'10", 360 lbs., while Scout weighed in with the utterly conservative figures of 6'7", 340. Brown already holds nine offers, including Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame, and USC.
Sam Webb's latest at the Detroit News is on Murrieta (CA) Vista Murrieta five-star LB/S/RB Su'a Cravens, who reiterated that he will take one of his official visits to Michigan. He also gave an idea about his current timetable:
"I'm going to take my time," he continued. "I don't know if I'm going to do the hat thing like most guys do in those February games, but I know I'm going to commit my senior year. I'm not going to commit too early so I don't have second thoughts about where I want to go. I'm a man of my word, so once I commit somewhere I'm going to stick to it. Before I do, I'm going to be sure of it, so it'll probably be my senior year."
Distance, he says, will not be a factor, which is obviously good news for Michigan fans. Cravens's cousin, Upland (CA) four-star DE Joe Mathis, told Tremendous that he'll also take an official to Ann Arbor, and he'll take it at the same time as Cravens. Talented family, that.
Other players interested in visiting: Vienna (GA) Dooly County five-star DT Montravius Adams, one of the top overall prospects in the country ($, info in header). Akron (OH) Firestone WR Kevin Gladney, who's looking to visit in April and told ESPN that Michigan holds a slight edge in his recruitment ($, info in header). Richmond (VA) Hermitage RB Derrick Green wants to visit Ann Arbor on the 18th of this month ($); we'll see if those plans change depending on what happens with Isaac and Smith, since Green is planning a signing day decision. Ft. Lauderdale (FL) St. Thomas Aquinas DE Joey Bosa, one of the top DEs in the country, told 11W's Alex Gleitman that he's looking to visit Michigan this spring.
Happy trails to a pair of tight ends in Jacob Matuska, who committed to Notre Dame as a DE, and Durham Smythe, who pledged to his home-state Texas Longhorns. Top-ranked TE Adam Brenemen makes his decision tonight and seems almost certain to head to Penn State, so you can mentally remove him from the board, as well. Assuming (safely) that Breneman goes elsewhere, Michigan has just two offers out to uncommitted TEs in New Orleans (LA) Edna Carr's Standish Dobard and Pittsburgh (PA) Seton La Salle's Scott Orndoff. Dobard seems like a long-shot to pull out of SEC country, but Orndoff has expressed strong interest.
Quickly: TTB runs down the new Scout 300 for 2013. Chantel Jennings goes over Michigan's D-line options ($). The DetNews tracks down an "NCAA expert" to tell us what we already knew: the Roundtree/Demens/McCray Twitter thing is a non-issue—I honestly only linked because of the picture.
|WHAT||Michigan vs Minnesota|
|WHEN||6:30 PM Eastern, Today|
|LINE||M –4 (Kenpom)|
MINNESOTA BASKETBALL: HISTORY'S GREATEST MONSTERS.
(thank you, Minnesota basketball, for not making Michigan basketball history's greatest monsters.
With a Rodger-Sherman-murdering overtime victory over Northwestern last night, Minnesota earns the right to play Michigan in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. They've also killed an innocent man. I hope you're happy, Oto Osenieks (@ right, smiling abut DEATH DEATH DEATH). HIS BLOOD IS ON YOUR HANDS.
Ah, so, anyway. Minnesota is an incredibly balanced team. Only one player averages more than 66% of available minutes and no one dominates the ball enough to get into the "Major Contributors" category at Kenpom. Chip Armelin does put up a hefty number of shots when he's in the game, but that's only 36% of the time. Scoring can come from anywhere for the Gophers. As we all learned while screaming at the television late in their game against Michigan State, it can also come from nowhere.
Minnesota is down one Ralph Sampson with a knee injury of some variety. He dressed but did not play at all yesterday and is not expected to play tonight, leaving Minnesota with freshmen Osenieks and Elliot Eliason in the post. Mostly Eliason—Osenieks got one minute yesterday, which he used to stab Rodger Sherman in the heart.
Unfortunately for Michigan, you can make a case that Eliason is not a downgrade on Sampson. They're the same size and while Sampson has much higher usage Eliason is a significantly better rebounder on both ends of the floor and not far off when it comes to blocked shots. Eliason has two major issues: he's getting 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes and he's a horrendous free throw shooter (11 of 28 on the year). He was 2 of 5 against Northwestern with six offensive rebounds, a couple of assists, and four fouls in 29 minutes. Sampson's numbers from Minnesota's loss to Michigan earlier in the season were essentially identical.
Minnesota was content to go small against Northwestern when Eliason was out. During those 16 minutes the tallest player on the floor for the Gophers were a couple 6'7" small forward sorts. They'll probably do the same against Michigan.
With Sampson out the headliner for Minnesota was guard Andre Hollins, who blew up for 25 points by hitting five of ten three-pointers. He was at 39% before that and his two-point shooting (34%) is amazingly bad, so the prescription is obvious there: run him off the line, off the line, off the line. With Eliason the main post guy there shouldn't be much reason to sag off of him.
The other main cogs of the Gopher offense at this juncture are Rodney Williams, the aforementioned 6'7" guy, and point guard Austin Hollins. Williams can jump out of the gym.
He also did this to a Nebraska player:
If that looks familiar, you're probably thinking of Zack Novak getting MBAKWE'D last year. Tubby Smith may not be able to get his team to the tournament but by God he can find some freakish power forwards.
Williams reminds me of Brent Petway, except good. However, he's not totally un-Petwayish. His usage is basically the same as all other Gophers, he's another horrendous free-throw shooter (55%), and he's not a threat from deep. He depends on offensive rebounding and assists for his offense and doesn't generate much on his own. So while he shoots 60% from two, you can control his opportunities decently well. Zack Novak's no stranger to matchups against larger, more athletic opponents and should cope decently. There will be a couple of posterizations. As long as Williams isn't getting 15 high-quality attempts Michigan should be able to cope.
The other Hollins was the assist guy against the Wildcats; he was also the turnover guy. He ended with six of the former and four of the latter. He's an efficient shooter from all ranges (84/51/37 percent FT/2/3). Michigan is going to see a different version of him this time out; in Crisler Hollins got just 14 minutes off the bench and didn't score.
Joe Coleman and Julian Welch were the other guys soaking up minutes against Northwestern. Welch came off the bench but got a Stu Douglass-like 30 minutes despite that; he hit half his threes and had a couple offensive rebounds to go with some turnovers. On the season he has by far the highest assist rate of any Gopher and also shoots efficiently (83/50/43). Coleman is a freshman who is not a good offensive player at this juncture and is having more minutes piled on him lately for unknown reasons.
Minnesota is so balanced that anyone could go off; the main threat seems to be massive numbers of three-pointers. The Gophers matched Northwestern's 11 for 26 shooting yesterday; if they do that again Michigan is going to have to keep pace or exit early. Survey says…
The Gophers' nonconference schedule was abysmal. According to Kenpom the best team on it was #56 South Dakota State. They got by the Bison, lost to Dayton in their preseason tourney championship game, and scraped by Virginia Tech in the Big Ten/ACC challenge. Thus concludes their nonconference games against Kenpom top 100 opponents.
When they hit the Big Ten they suffered four consecutive losses to start things and never really recovered. Their sole quality win was 77-74 at Indiana, which is pretty impressive. But all other Big Ten wins came against Penn State, Illinois, Northwestern, and Nebraska.
Conference four factors:
|Factor||Offense (Rk)||Defense (Rk)||Avg|
|Effective FG%:||49.2 8||47.4 4||49|
|Turnover %:||21.8 12||18.1 8||20.8|
|Off. Reb. %:||33.4 3||31.1 10||32.5|
|FTA/FGA:||36.5 6||43.3 11||36.5|
This is the statistical picture of an athletic, unskilled, not-very-smart team. They're great on the offensive boards and it's tough to shoot over them (they're #1 in the conference at blocking shots) but they turn the ball over a ton, allow opponents to crash the boards despite their size, and foul like the dickens.
Other statistical bits of interest include steal percentage, blocks suffered on offense, and three-point shooting. Minnesota is last, 11th, and sixth, respectively. This means that 1) Michigan should have fast break opportunities off of turnovers, 2) Minnesota's shots are often heavily contested, and 3) a lot of the shiny numbers Kenpom shows for Minnesota's three-point shooting are artifacts of a poor nonconference schedule.
Timmah? TIMMAH. We've gotten to the point in the rejuvenation cycle where newspapers are appending narratives to potentially random events:
Left with no other choice, Hardaway eventually came out of his shell and began to look for help.
He spent time with Michigan Director of Athletic Counseling Greg Harden, a man former Wolverine football greats like Desmond Howard and Tom Brady have sworn by.
He began to take a look at the mental part of his game, analyzing it as much as any jump shot or free throw mechanic.
Is that why he's been playing better? God, I hope so. The alternative is that Hardaway is just experiencing a random fluctuation to the good and should revert to an established level of play just in time for that to suck hard. I don't know which is the case. Not enough data, so we make big.
Hardaway did add 13 points on nine shots against Penn State and is now hitting around 43% over his last seven games. This is getting pretty trend-y. His turnover rate is going up, which is fine to a certain extent but not so much when those turnovers are coming on dribbles he puts off his foot.
Smotryczah? Maybe. Michigan's other mercurial outside shooting talent also came to life against Penn State. That one basket Smotrycz had where he drove to the short corner and calmly pulled up for a jumper caused hearts to flutter. Can he build on that performance against a team that is not completely horrible on defense?
Don't let anyone taller than 6'4" have an easy basket. Williams, Eliason, Osenieks, and sub Andre Ingram are all are very bad free throw shooters. If they're in position for a dunk or layup, just foul them.
Convert on fast break opportunities. There will probably be a bunch of them; too often this year we've seen a Hardaway or Smotrycz rumble up the court and get the ball poked away.
Don't let anyone shorter than 6'7" take an uncontested three. Welch is at 43%, Hollins 39%, other Hollins 37%. I know these are inflated numbers but if that's a representation of what they do when half their games give them a lot of open threes because the opponents are bad, that's still not something Michigan wants to deal with. The only player on Minnesota who is a plus shooter from inside the line is Williams. Anyone else taking a two-point jumper is a win for Michigan.
Eliason foul watch. He's it as far as centers go for Minnesota and he picks up a ton of fouls. If he's out Michigan's path eases. This won't be a Shurna situation. No one who's playing the false five is a shooting threat and Morgan can just sag into the lane if Minnesota tries to play games with a small lineup.
This can also be reversed, of course: Morgan/Smotrycz foul watch in effect. They've been less spastic than Eliason over the course of the season and there are two of them, so it's less of an issue for Michigan, especially given Eliason's apparent lack of post touches.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by four.
The Old Man is coming. The Old Man.
The Old Man is coming.
The McCrayken is alive. All of the internets to user mdoc, who responded to the winged-helmet-kraken request instantly:
This blog is rooting for Mike McCray to be a destructive force so hard.
Penn State's death has been greatly exaggerated. OR: look what we can do when we have a head coach! PSU's 2012 class was terrible. All their good recruits ended up with Urban Meyer and they replaced them with two stars snatched from the MAC. That's going to hurt for a while. Despite that, Nittany Lions fans are probably feeling more chipper than they thought they would about their program's intermediate-term prospects. They've recently swooped in on the following recruits:
- QB Christian Hackenberg, a consensus four star claiming offers from Alabama and Florida.
- DE Garrett Sickels, who is rated a lot like Mike McCray (ie: top 50 on Rivals, solid four-star elsewhere)
- CB Ross Douglas, a three/four star tweener.
They are almost certain to add five-star-ish TE Adam Breneman tomorrow. By doing so they've become the only Big Ten team kind of sort of keeping up with the big two when it comes to shiny stars next to high schoolers' names. The Sandusky effect is looking pretty short-lived.
All you have to do is look at OSU's last class to know that this is good for Michigan. A strong Penn State takes recruits from teams who play Michigan all the time and puts them on one that plays Michigan 40% of the time; also it would be really nice if there was someone strong enough in the East to prevent an annoying B10 championship game instant rematch.
I'm with Fitz, sort of. Pat Fitzgerald does not want 6-6 teams to be excluded from bowl consideration:
Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald hopes the Big Ten does not support potential legislation to limit bowl games to teams with at least seven wins.
"The best part of bowl games is about the opportunities -- not just the teams, but for your students, your fans, your alumni, your fans in the area," Fitzgerald told the Tribune on Tuesday. "I'm not for limiting it."
Paging Captain Renault. I agree that if a couple teams want to play some football it's better than watching ping-pong, but I'm not a fan of goofs in blazers bleeding college tuition out of the system. Leave it at 6-6 and severely reduce ticket guarantees. That will cause a bunch of bowls to collapse and solve the problem organically.
And this is 95% of the reason I linked the article:
"I'm not for five-win teams even being able to receive a waiver," Fitzgerald said. "That's tough noogies. If you have a losing record, you are out. A .500 record should be the benchmark."
I love Pat Fitzgerald. May he coach at Northwestern for 30 years.
Al Borges and the interesting things. Borges was on the Huge show recently and the resulting conversation had an unusual density of interesting things said. Borges admits that the early-season (and Iowa) forays into a more pro-style offense were a mistake:
"I think had we had to do it over again, we would have been a little more spread offense early on and gotten better at that. We kind of weaned ourselves into more spread offense as we went. That's really what was best for Denard at the end of the day."
He also makes a great observation about where Denard is at his most dangerous in the passing game:
"Denard is better in the pocket than rolling out," Borges said. "The thing with Denard, where he scares the defense the most, is when he sits in the middle of the pocket, comes underneath the rush, and poses not just a passing threat to the defense, but a running threat too. If you roll him out all the time a lot of time what they did is they would pin us into the sideline where Denard's improv skills aren't used near as much."
Whole thing is recommended. Borges references the "drastic leap" from year one to year two in his passing game. If Denard can just set his feet regularly and not throw into double coverage, Michigan will be cooking.
Sounds good to me. Andy Staples has a fascinating article on the potential impact of full cost of attendance scholarships:
For years, doomsayers have predicted a scenario in which the wealthiest 50 or 60 schools compete only against one another. If such a scenario ever came to fruition, it would have its roots in the debate over the full-cost-of-attendance scholarship.
Doomsayers? As long as we're talking about football here that sounds like heaven.
The article goes into arguments both for and against, with the small schools making arguments that moving some of the money currently going to coaches and facilities to players exacerbates competitive inequity. They don't make the case that this isn't a good thing, and then Nebraska's chancellor just blows it up anyway:
"You can tell me that I can't give them bagels with cream cheese and I can't give them more scholarships and I can't do this and I can't do that, and I follow those rules," Perlman said. "But then what I do to recruit competitively is I spend the money on other stuff. So I build facilities where there is no limit on what I can do, and I make those facilities far beyond what normal students live in because there's no limit on that. There's a standard understanding about regulatory environments that if you regulate something, people will move to the part of their activity that isn't regulated."
At worst the proposal takes the middleman out of competitive inequity.
It sounds like the big schools are getting increasingly exasperated with small schools with no financial weight imposing restrictions on them because they like to pretend they're DI schools when they're really just Indiana State. Eventually some sort of split is coming.
BONUS WASHINGTON PRESIDENT MICHAEL YOUNG PROBABLY WORKS FOR ADULT SWIM ZINGER:
"The kids who are on solely need-based aid can basically work 20 hours a week or whatever and earn a little pizza money or earn a little money for tattoos or whatever they want," Young said, tongue planted firmly in cheek. "Our athletes, on the other hand, work 40-50 hours a week for the school, and they don't get anything except what these other kids get without having to work for it. It seems when one thinks about simple equity, from that perspective, it's hard to argue that these kids shouldn't get something."
You're all right, Washington president Michael Young.
Wat. Brady Hoke is going to loathe this:
Hoke, Beilein and Brandon —along with U-M softball coach Carol Hutchins and a handful of business professors— will host a six-day executive education program intended to teach business leadership through lessons learned in U-M sports. Those lessons, according to a recent U-M announcement, include the trick to "transformations in times of crisis," as well as how to teach people "new ways of doing things" and how to "take on fierce competitors and produce winning results."
Only $15,000! Some people have too much money.
Etc.: Possibly random Hardaway renaissance is retconned into narrative. Please be true, narrative. Mitch McGary's "defensive impact" draws high praise—that would be nice, wouldn't it? If you've got ESPN insider this Wolverine Nation piece in which recruits are anonymously surveyed on recruiting tactics they've faced is a must-read. Excellent Yost student section retrospective. John Beilein for everything.
Trade mag article on how Michigan Stadium amplified the band. Maybe next year they'll have a piece on how they made it sound better in section 44. : (
With three of the recruiting services releasing their initial rankings and over half the Big Ten now possessing at least one commit, it's time to debut to Big Ten Recruiting Rankings for the class of 2013. I give you zero guesses about who is number one. Congratulations. You somehow won anyway.
ESPN is not included for now since they haven't released anything beyond their Watch List and an unsorted top 100 that they don't link or acknowledge anywhere else on the site, including individual player pages.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||24/7 Avg||Avg Avg^|
^The average of the average rankings of the three recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as one-star players. This may be a bit unfair this early in the process, considering there are many unevaluated recruits out there at this stage, but that's life.
On to the full data, after the jump.
[Ed-Ace: Bumped on a slow day. I'm working on the initial Big Ten recruiting rankings for the class of 2013, which should be up later today.]
I have never played basketball at any level, outside of a few pickup games. I'm not all that good at statistics, so I apologize for any and all statistical errors. However, as a former actuary, I am good at finding trends and patterns in data. Last week, Maize N Brew had a good article on whether Michigan lives and dies by the three. The conclusion was that the offensive efficiency was not really dependent on hitting 3 pointers. When looking at it the data presented, it looked as though the more three point shots UM takes the worse the offensive efficiency. I decided to take a closer look.
3 point Attempts vs Offensive Effiency.
I went throught the game by game box scores and looked at the 3-point attempts and plotted it against the offensive efficiency. [I removed Ferris St. since they aren't a D-I opponent.] What I found was slightly disappointing. The correlation was -0.15 (the negative means the higher the number of 3-point attempts the lower the offensive efficiency) and the R-squared was a low 0.02. However, when I took a closer look, I noticed that two of our lower offensive efficiency numbers came against Ohio and MSU, which is no surprise considering that they are the #1 and #2 best defensive efficiency teams in the country.
So to adjust for that I looked at the amount the offensive efficiency exceeded the opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency from Kenpom. The result was more in line with what I expected. The correlation drops to -0.49 and the R-squared rises to 0.24.
Looking at the results, when U-M shoots 20 3-pointers or less, Michigan is 10-0 (4 of them RPI Top 50 wins, 5 more Top 100 wins). Shooting more than 25, Michigan is 6-3, but those wins came against Arkansas Pine Bluff, Oakland, 2 overtime wins against Northwestern, Bradley and Iowa St (the only quality win in regulation). The 3 losses were the 3 worst performances of the season, @Iowa, @Arkansas, and the loss to Purdue.
So is this unique to Michigan? I looked at Northwestern, a team I think is most similar to Michigan's style of play (in the B1G). They spread the floor, shoot a ton of 3s and look for back door cuts. And I found they have a positive correlation between 3 attempts and offensive efficiency. A correlation of +0.17 (after adjusting for defensive effiency). The R-squared is a pathetic 0.03, but I think it is important to note that the correlation is the opposite sign.
I also looked at Wisconsin. Ohio relies on Sullinger and MSU relies on the offensive rebound so much that I didn't think that they would be good comparisons to Michigan. For them it doesn't seem to matter if they shoot a lot of threes or not. A correlation of -0.1 and an R-squared of 0.01.
One of the 4 factors is Free Throw Rate. I think this may be the most important of the 4 for Michigan. Michigan is 10-0 vs RPI Top 100 competition when their FT Rate is greater than 25%. Michigan is 2-7 vs RPI Top 100 when the FT Rate is at or below 25%. How does this relate to 3-pointers? My theory is that Michigan is at their best when driving the basket and drawing fouls and not settling for jump shots of the 3-point variety (I'm looking at you THJ). It might also explain why Northwestern gives us fits. Their zone forces us to take a bunch of 3 point shots (like 38 of them).
So as we go into the post season:
- Cackle with knowing glee if Michigan is driving the basket
- Worry if we draw a zone team that forces us to shoot a lot of 3 pointers.
If anyone has a team they would like me to look at, let me know. I'm going to try to figure out how to add graphs so you can see the dramatic downward slope of Michigan's efficiency against 3 point attempts.