I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
A new commit for the Wolverines means this hits the front page. Action since last rankings:
11-12-10 Michigan gains commitment from Dallas Crawford. Purdue gains commitment from Akeem Hunt.
11-14-10 Penn State gains commitment from Anthony Alosi. 70espn NR rivals NRscout.
Rivals and Scout have updated their rankings over the past couple weeks, so there are some shakeups in there.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||ESPN Avg|
Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45).
|#1 Ohio State - 18 Commits|
Braxton Miller moves up to 6.0, Jeremy Cash falls from 5.8 to 5.7 on Rivals.
|#2 Notre Dame - 17 Commits|
|George Atkinson III||S||CA||5.8||4||79|
No change for ND.
|#3 Nebraska - 16 Commits|
Rivals bumps Aaron Green down to 5.9, but David Santos goes from 5.6 to 5.8.
|#4 Michigan State - 16 Commits|
Darien Harris upgraded to a 5.7 on Rivals.
|#5 Michigan - 13 Commits|
Lots of movers and shakers among the future Wolverines, on top of picking up a commit from CB Dallas Crawford. Demetrius Hart was described as "the best RB I've seen this year" by Barry Every... then Every's Rivals scouts proceeded to rank him the #5 RB in the country. He's up to the top 4-star, however. Everybody else is a faller, as Chris Rock goes from 5.7 to 5.6, Greg Brown and Tony Posada go from 5.7 to 5.5. Rivals still has Jack Miller at 5.5, about which LOL.
|#6 Indiana - 22 Commits|
|#7 Wisconsin - 18 Commits|
AJ Jordan loses his fourth star in Scout's re-rank, but Jake Keefer picks one up. Jordan also drops from 80 to 79 on ESPN. On Rivals, Makinton Dorleant goes from 5.5 to 5.6, and Bennett Okotcha goes from unrated to 5.6.
|#8 Iowa - 16 Commits|
Ray Hamilton is stripped of his fourth star in Scout's re-rank, but he picks one up from Rivals. Go figure. Orloff gets a HUGE bump on ESPN from 69 to 70.
|#9 Northwestern - 13 Commits|
Green goes from unrated to 5.3 on Rivals.
|#10 Minnesota - 15 Commits|
Mike Moore is up to 5.6 (from 5.5) on Rivals. Cameron Brown and Samuel Oyenuga go from unranked to 5.5 on that service.
|#11 Illinois - 17 Commits|
Thornton and Rhodes pick up 5.4 ratings from Rivals.
|#12 Penn State - 4 Commits|
Finally a new commit, but still with the embarrassingly empty class.
|#13 Purdue - 8 Commits|
Purdue picks up Akeem Hunt, and none of their other rankings are changed.
Okay, probably undeserving of muppets. But this probably popped into existence five seconds after the tenth turnover of the game and must be deployed:
Hurray for monsoons!
The Liveblog Chaos Mitigation Post. You know it. You love it. You've probably never read it despite it being linked here every week.
Just a year ago, the Michigan basketball team was fresh off their first NCAA Tournament appearance in a decade and expectations were high in Ann Arbor. Two walkons and a Canadian (CJ Lee, David Merritt, and Jevohn Shepherd) were the only departures, and the Wolverines were ready to take the next step forward.
So that went well, right?
Not so much, no.
Michigan sputtered the entire year, unable to find the spark that they'd ridden the previous season thanks in large part to their inability to find the bottom of the net. In retrospect, it should have been obvious: though they weren't frequently deployed, CJ Lee, David Merritt, and Kelvin Grady (who quit the team and eventually joined the football squad instead) were the team's best 3-point shooters. They were also the only point guards on the roster. Maybe those freshman phenoms from Indiana weren't as magical as it seemed.
The Wolverines turned their highest expectations in several years into a 15-17 record. Some losses were embarrassing, and the near upsets of Michigan State and Ohio State both ended with painful daggers from the opponent--one from mid-court.
Manny Harris has taken his talents to the Cleveland Cavaliers. DeShawn Sims took his to Greece, then back to America. Zack Gibson graduated, Anthony Wright is playing out his final year of eligibility at Toledo, Laval Lucas-Perry will ride the bench at Oakland for a season, and the most experienced players in Ann Arbor (outside of the opponents) are a pair of 3-star juniors and a sophomore.
Expectations are low this season, and understandably so. But does that mean Michigan fans should simply forget about the men of Crisler? Zack Novak has thrown himself on the floor, been elbowed in the face, and guarded guys half-a-foot taller than him too many times to be ignored. Stu Douglass has nailed one too many clutch shots, and learned one too many new positions (they call this one "point guard," whatever that is) for this team to simply fade away. Top recruits Evan Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway Jr. did not sign up to lose games wearing the maize and blue. These players want to win big games, and they'll probably do it at times this year.
We don't know who will be the stars, or which freshmen will perform. We don't know if Michigan's inexperienced bigs will be able to slow down the likes of Syracuse, Illinois, and Purdue. We don't know if the Wolverines will finally be able to find the bottom of the net after a year of searching, but coming up with mostly iron. We don't know if they'll run an effective 1-3-1 and force opponent turnovers. We don't know what to expect from this team.
Ever the optimist, I think this team will surprise a couple opponents [Ed-M: "Surprise" as in "beat" or as in "ha, bet you didn't know some of us shave!"?]. However, with such a young roster, there's no doubt that they'll be upset themselves. The one thing they can promise, though, is that they'll be fun to watch. Maybe not in every individual game, but seeing these young players grow over the course of the season should be an entertaining - if often frustrating - experience all its own.
And though I mean it every time I say it, this one may come from a little deeper in the heart: Go Blue.
This is real? Um, so, this is apparently what Michigan is wearing for the Big Chill:
That is hideous. It's going to be the worst thing I ever see a Michigan team wear live. That's not a Wolverine. It's a ferret or something, and the day-glo yellow is something Oregon would be comfortable with, and I can see the 1980s Vancouver Canucks think the shoulder striping is wicked.
Other people like it, I guess, but man… put me in the "no" column.
Maybe yes, maybe no. Depending on how you define luck, Michigan has either been lucky or unlucky. The lucky part: Michigan is 4-0 in close games, though I think defining the UMass game as "close" is a stretch since onside kicks are recovered about 10% of the time when the opponent knows it's coming. If the UMass game was close than Michigan's games against Penn State and Iowa were close since Michigan had ample opportunity to get a stop that would give them a chance to tie.
Anyway, so they're 3-0 in close games but they're also hammering opponents in total yards and have been undone by yet another ugly turnover margin and terrible special teams. Braves and Birds puts together a chart with various interesting numbers:
To the chart we go!
YPP Off. YPP Def. YPP Mar. Sagarin SRS Ohio State 6.1 4.2 +1.9 88.22 15.36 Iowa 6.2 4.9 +1.3 86.17 15.29 Mich. State 6.0 5.2 +.8 79.56 12.16 Wisconsin 5.9 5.4 +.5 79.37 11.59 Illinois 5.1 5.2 -.1 79.29 9.06 Michigan 6.9 6.3 +.6 74.48 5.21 Penn State 5.5 5.9 -.4 73.84 5.02 NW 5.4 5.8 -.4 66.94 -0.63 Indiana 4.7 7.3 -2.6 63.63 -0.08 Purdue 4.2 5.3 -1.1 59.62 -6.07 Minn. 5.0 6.4 -1.4 58.57 -9.43
(Note: the yardage numbers come only from games against BCS conference opponents. This includes games against Notre Dame.)
Michigan's yards per play margin is on par with the weaker teams challenging for the conference title and well clear of the conference rabble, even with a defense far worse than anyone save Indiana and Minnesota. Where Michigan falls apart are the places not found on the chart, in turnovers and special teams. At least this year there's a clear reason for the turnover margin: the defense. Michigan's lost 17 turnovers this year; the NCAA average is 15.75. The defense has only acquired ten. Assuming Denard can lower his interception rate like most quarterbacks do, next year Michigan can finally approach turnover parity if the defense takes the significant step forward it could.
Anyway, B&B pulled out this chart because he'd created one for the SEC as a vehicle to discuss whether Georgia had been unlucky (conclusion: yes) and tried to figure out if the same was true for Michigan. He concludes it's a mixed bag and I agree; Michigan may have been unlucky to suffer scads of turnovers against MSU and Iowa but since a lot of those TOs resulted from Denard's now-established tendency to throw behind his receiver that's more an effect of talent limitations than bloody fate.
There's significantly more wobble in the TO numbers than most anything else year to year but certain things do reliably cause turnovers: quarterback inexperience and pressure. Michigan's had a lot of inexperience, little pressure on the opponent, and little pressure on Michigan. Results are average TO numbers against and terrible for.
Arithmetic, yo. The fundamental flaw with Spread Is Dead rhetoric is a fundamental change in the nature of offense when the quarterback can both run and throw. In an article for the Wolverine, Jon Chait gets the point across:
It's worth keeping all this in mind when you hear sports commentators announce that defenses have "caught up to the spread." It's partially true, but only partially… The part they haven't caught up to is having a quarterback in the shotgun who can read an un-blocked defender and keep the ball on almost any running play. That is the real game-changer in the spread system. It alters the entire arithmetic of the game, allowing the offense to always have enough blockers to account for the defenders in the box, while also forcing defenses into stripped-down pass coverages. Defenses can't catch up to this dynamic because you can't "catch up to" arithmetic.
The most striking thing about the Rodriguez videos everyone pored over in the aftermath of his hire was his assumption about the number of safeties he would face: one… or zero? That's the arithmetic that sees Michigan averaging over six yards a carry along with two other true spread 'n' shreds (Oregon and Auburn) and two other teams whose quarterbacks average just under 100 yards a game (Nevada and Nebraska). At the same time Michigan averages 9.2(!) YPA, because the safety question is now one or zero instead of one or two*.
*(With some limited exceptions, like Iowa. Iowa gave up over 500 yards only to see Michigan thwart itself spectacularly; since the 28 they gave up there was only exceeded by Wisconsin—Arizona got a ton of points on ST—that's kinda sorta a reason the question about safeties has changed.)
Gapping it. Given the first two bullets this table from Doctor Saturday won't be a surprise:
The Mathete's been tracking this disparity too and by his numbers, which go back to 2002, Michigan has a bigger gap between O and D performance than anyone. In my eyes this is a reason to keep Rodriguez around since it should be easier to find an average defense with an established elite offensive mind in place than revamp the program considerably.
Ballin' out of control. If you didn't see this happen you are like me but I can appreciate it in retrospect:
Your offense has the ball on its own 12-yard line with a 30-28 lead and 3:39 to play in the fourth quarter. The defense has just used the first of three timeouts. Your quarterback, who you've already tried to bench on two separate occasions this season before injuries forced him back into the lineup, completes an eight-yard pass on 3rd-and-9. You let the clock run down to 2:50, then call your first timeout. Now facing a 4th-and-1 from your own 19-yard line with a two-point lead and less than three minutes to play, do you:
a) Punt and play defense;
b) Line up like you're going for it in an effort to draw the defense offsides, then use your second timeout and punt if the defense doesn't jump;
c) Seriously, anything other than a punt risks a turnover with the ball already in prime position for the game-winning field goal. Just kick it already;
d) Are we really still debating this?
e) Spit as hard as you can and actually go for it.
Randy Edsall and mansome Jordan Todman went for it, got four yards, and got to kneel out the game after another couple first downs. This is spectacular for the following reasons:
- Todman finished with 37 carries for 220 yards and had already established he was capable of running down Pitt's throat
- Tino Sunseri had completed 20 of 28 passes for 220 yards and had just brought Pitt within two two minutes ago.
- If you don't make it you sell out to stop them from getting a first down and get the ball back with a shot at the win, but…
- It's fourth and one and your tailback has 200 yards. You're going to make it.
You could tell Zook wanted to go for it on several fourth and ones Michigan forced, but the closest he came to pulling the trigger was taking a delay of game on one. A tip of the cap to Edsall for overcoming his dread and getting a well-deserved win. People invariably call this "guts" or "balls" and while it is gutsy it's also the right call. God, I just thought about Lloyd Carr punting from the OSU 34 in 2005.
NEW TOPIC: no Big East team now has fewer than three losses and 8-4 looks like the best case scenario for the conference champion. Fire the Big East.
Scrub is a guy who can't get no love from me. Pro bowl cornerback supposed height chart from Touch The Banner:
Not much to tell except once you start getting shorter than 5'10" your shot at the super big time gets dim. I'd like to see an equivalent of this with All Conference teams to see what the breakdown is there. I bet it's shorter.
Four verts. Remember that second and twenty two Illinois converted easily? Yeah, that was four verticals against cover three, I think, and that didn't work so well. Here's a primer on what to do about it—mostly get those linebackers ten yards deep as soon as they read pass. In that down and distance that should have been "before the snap," but Michigan had them all tight and they didn't get sufficient distance, or a chuck, and Vinopal was way too deep, and bang.
Etc.: Soony Saad shot Michigan past MSU in the Big Ten soccer tournament yesterday despite Justin Meram getting a second yellow for celebration after he tied the game. They play Wisconsin today for a shot at the final. The bagpipe rendition of Amazing Grace from last weekend. Holdin' the Rope reminisces about childhood visits to West Lafayette. An interview with Jon Falk.
|WHAT||Michigan at Purdue|
|WHERE||Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN|
|WHEN||Noon Eastern, November 13th 2010|
|THE LINE||Michigan -13|
|TELEVISION||Big Ten Network|
40% chance of rain
Run Offense vs. Purdue
At this point Michigan's rushing offense is what it is: ridiculous. Last week Denard Robinson had the worst day of his career (as a starter, anyway) on the ground and Michigan still put up 4.9 YPC against a team giving up more than a yard less than that against other opponents. With the longest run of the day Stephen Hopkins rumbling for 32 on an early zone stretch, Michigan's production was consistent and replicable across 53 carries. Michigan is 9th in rushing offense and in an exclusive club of teams averaging over six yards a carry. (The others: Nevada, Auburn, Oregon, and Nebraska. The spread is dead.) They are on pace to obliterate the best Michigan rushing offense of the past ten years.
On the other side of the ball, Purdue's run defense is surprisingly adept for a team coming off three consecutive bombings at the hands of ground-oriented opponents Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The Boilers are 49th in raw yardage and 34th in YPC, though that latter number is heavily distorted by Purdue's ravenous appetite for sacks (sixth nationally). The Boilers in Big Ten games and against common opponent Notre Dame:
Taking out the sacks makes a huge difference, revealing Purdue to be a thoroughly mediocre run defense that is going to give up four and a half yards a carry to just about everyone.
When I looked at Purdue's humiliating defeat to Toledo (I mean lol amirite who loses to Toledo?) in the bye week I paid scant attention to the Boilers defense, declaring it awful minus Ryan Kerrigan. I think I shorted at least one player in doing that: DT Kawaan Short is a consistent penetrator of the type that's given Michigan problems the last two weeks, albeit one who's probably not in the class of Ollie Ogbu or Corey Liuget. The rest of Purdue's defense is unremarkable; linebackers get their tackles shed, the other DT is a freshman, and the safeties don't leap out at you.
The one concerning bit is that Northwestern, the purest spread n shred on the list (though not very pure under Persa), got clunked. I'm not sure how much relevance that has, but it's a note of concern. Another strategy note: since Marve went down Purdue's moved to an Illinois-style offense with a lot of midline and inverted veer. Michigan tried those a few times against Illinois until Martez Wilson exchanged with another linebacker and baited Robinson into a two yard run, at which point they decided that throwing this new stuff up against the core competency of Illinois was not such a good idea. I'd bet on a similar fate for the newfangled tomorrow.
Key Matchup: David Molk versus Gaston. Last week Molk abused redshirt freshman Akeem Spence on a series of stretch plays. He now gets another freshman tackle, and one who probably isn't as good. Short can play but if Michigan can stretch the field away from him and get Gaston locked behind Molk it's not going to matter and Michigan will have the usual cruise.
Pass Offense vs. Purdue
By far the best aspect of Purdue's team is their pass rush. As mentioned, they're sixth nationally in sacks acquired. Ryan Kerrigan leads the way with 7.5; Short has an impressive six from the interior. No one else has more than two but Purdue deploys an array of effective blitzes that have seen 11 players other than Short and Kerrigan register sacks.
Since Purdue's secondary depth chart doesn't look that much different than Michigan's (or at least didn't before the JT Floyd injury), you can explain probably 80% of Purdue's respectable pass defense numbers by pointing at the line. Unfortunately for the Boilers their efficiency numbers are what you'd expect for a secondary with one upperclass cornerback in the two deep, that a backup. They're 96th—i.e., essentially as bad as Michigan. Because NCAA stats are dumb they don't account for the sacks, but the numbers suggest that when you get a pass off it's likely to be complete and go a long way. Results:
For reference, the average YPA for a D-I team this year is 7.3. That's one good performance, a couple average-ish ones, two bad ones, and one debacle.
Michigan's now 14th in passer efficiency, mixing hilariously wide open touchdowns with a healthy dose of efficient chain-moving curls and a smattering of frustrating incompletions/interceptions on plays that could or should be hilariously wide open touchdowns. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are decent or slightly better Big Ten receivers, and infamous snake oil recipient Roy Roundtree just blew up the single-game Michigan receiving record. Denard Robinson has some accuracy issues and still reads defenses slowly from time to time but has completed a mindboggling leap to become the #11 passer in the country. Meanwhile, Michigan's line and the terror inspired by the possibility of a Robinson scramble sees Michigan tied for fourth nationally with just four sacks allowed.
This should be a good matchup for Michigan because their passing game manages to get big plays without exposing the quarterback to a lot of pressure. QB Lead Oh Noes is a quick pass that gets big chunks and general terror about Denard means that unless Michigan gets stuck in a passing down the defensive linemen are operating at a severe disadvantage when it comes to getting to the QB. The reason Denard never scrambles is because defenses are scared of getting out of position; if the big thing is getting passes off this is advantage Michigan.
Key Matchup: Denard versus His Mechanical Issues That This Guy Explains And Mean That He Leaves Balls Behind His Receivers Not Infrequently. The biggest issue with the offense right now is Denard not taking opportunities in the passing game. This is a little tiny bacteria of an issue compared to everything on defense but it's there.
Run Defense vs. Purdue
As mentioned, after Marve went down Purdue basically installed the Juice Williams offense, figuring that if Williams and his flippers where arms should go could survive in the Big Ten it must be a pretty good bet when you're down to third-string freshmen and worse. They run a lot of inverted veer and midline, with the quarterback picking up 10-15 carries a game. The rest go to gritty, heady Dan Dierking and a rotating cast of wide receivers, fullbacks, and even quarterbacks(!) with crushed fingers who can't pass. Nine players got carries against Illinois. Meanwhile, the offensive line moved a 6-6 guy to center and is starting a converted defensive tackle.
This rickety contraption wouldn't be street legal in Bangkok but Danny Hope's managed to eke a somewhat good running game out of it. You will yawn expansively at this given Michigan's numbers: they are 39th nationally at about 4.5 YPC. Okay, vast quantities of those yards came against Northwestern and Minnesota and Ohio State hit them over the head and Robinson and Dierking combined for 86 yards on 28 carries against Wisconsin. But still: 4.5 YPC in a car with wheels made of toothpaste. This is MacGuyver level coaching.
Such a mutable running game is difficult to get a grasp on but the Wisconsin game is most recent and provides a blueprint. Dierking will get 15-20 carries and will get about what his blocking gives him. Robinson will get another ten and do the same; he's not on the same level as the athletic Henry. Backups will get another ten carries, some of the end-around variety, and at the end of the day Purdue will have a lot of of zero to three yard carries and a few that break longer. These longer runs will likely be around 20 yards—there was one 60 yarder for Al-Terek McBurse against Illinois but Purdue lacks gamebreakers in a serious way.
Michigan's run defense is susceptible to breakdowns, especially on the edge, and will probably give Purdue a number of opportunities to break those long-ish runs. On the other hand, since Kenny Demens came into the starting lineup quick bursts into the interior of the defense have been few and far between—I can't actually think of any—and this should go like a slightly crappier version of the Wisconsin and Illinois games, where bursts give up yards here and there but there's a lot of third and medium.
Key Matchup: Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs containing the veer and any options that Purdue pulls out after seeing it work for Illinois. Keep them inside and Michigan should do well.
Pass Defense vs. Purdue
When Marve went down against Toledo, Purdue was forced to go with third-stringer Rob Henry, a redshirt freshman currently rocking a 51% completion rate and a 5.1 YPA reminiscent of Michigan's Sheridan/Threet combo in 2008. Then Ohio State crushed his finger, forcing the Boilers to peel the redshirt off true freshman Sean Robinson. Robinson is currently rocking a 47% completion rate and averaging an amazing 3.3 YPA. He's got 4 interceptions against two touchdowns. This is Purdue's 2010 season in a nutshell:
That's fourth string freshman QB Robinson entering a mesh point with third string freshman QB Rob Henry in a real game. A Purdue blog looking for a season postmortem could do worse than just posting that picture.
Henry got some spot duty two weeks ago at Illinois, playing the first series despite not being able to throw and then featuring as an anti-wildcat by lining up next to Robinson as a running back, but has not thrown a ball the last two weeks. His projected return was for tomorrow but the Purdue depth chart lists him behind Robinson and in an OR situation with redshirt freshman walk-on Skyler Titus. Robinson is expected to start.
You will note the total absence of Justin Siller from this conversation, which is because Siller is still not recovered from a high ankle sprain suffered earlier in the year:
"And we're still not sure where Siller or Rob Henry is at. They weren't able to go on Saturday, and that was only a couple of days ago. I don't know how much their status has changed since then. Both did a little bit on Saturday, but were a long way away from full speed."
You may surreptitiously high-five yourself about this even if it is gauche.
Compounding difficulties for Purdue is a similar ravaging of their receiver position. #1 Keith Smith has missed the entire year due to a knee injury. Siller, who was their second or third guy, is out. Freshman OJ Ross, who you may remember Michigan recruiting for a while last year, is out. That leaves Cortez Smith, now far and away the top downfield threat, Antavian Edison, and tight end Kyle Adams as the main threats. All are averaging around ten yards a catch save Adams, who is somehow managing six yards per. Some of these numbers in the Purdue passing game are amazing.
So. Michigan faces a true freshman quarterback down approximately his top three targets behind a mediocre line (45th in sacks allowed) and I've given you the stats and I know what you're thinking: you hate it when I point out that this upcoming passing attack is awful because then that passing attack goes B-A-N-A-N-A-S on Michigan's secondary and you're just watching it thinking "oh my God this is a walk-on or freshman oh my God." I'm sorry. I cannot change Sean Robinson's age or career YPA.
So… is this a team Michigan can post a respectable result against? And by respectable I mean "allow Robinson double his YPA"? If there's anyone on the schedule this is true for, it's Purdue. If. The Mathlete should have replaced this graph with a picture of a pillow fight:
Yakety sax all around here.
Key Matchup: Um. What do you go with when the opposing QB is averaging 3.3 YPA? Tackling, I guess. Underneath tackling.
Purdue's return game is awful (105th punts, 112th kicks) and their punting mediocre (65th), so Michigan's array of confused and alarmed on special teams should be able to see them start some drives on or around their 20. As per usual, massive advantage opponent when it comes to field goals: Carson Wiggs is 10 of 14 on the year.
Key Matchup: STOP KICKING THE DAMN BALL
this is the purdue running game
- Michigan turns Sean Robinson into Sean "P Diddy" Combs, and by that I mean a real quarterback for some reason.
- Every Purdue drive starts in Michigan territory because Michigan starts hitting their kickoffs backwards.
- Insane fate demons decree Michigan turnoverfest.
Cackle with knowing glee if...
- Taylor Lewan thunks Kerrigan a la Clayborn.
- Purdue brings a guy into the box and Michigan gets the crazy open guys again.
- Molk's matchup against that freshman DT goes like you might expect.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; –1 for Seriously This Time The Fourth String Quarterback Is Really Bad, Guys, Seriously, –1 for And Almost Literally Every Offensive Skill Position Starter Is Out, –1 for Purdue Secondary = Michigan Secondary, –1 Remember When We Lost To Toledo? Yeah, We Weren't Very Good Then, +1 for General Overconfidence Check, +1 for Turnover/Special Teams Facepunchin' Spectacular, –1 for But Purdue's Pretty Much The Same When It Comes To The Facepunchin', +1 for That Feeling In The Pit Of Your Stomach, You Know What I'm Talking About.)
Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 Constant Rich Rodriguez Job Reclamation Project, +1 for Winning Season OMG, +1 for It Was Nice To Have A Week Where People Whined About A Victory And How It Shouldn't Save Rich Rodriguez's Job, Relatively Anyway, +1 for If We Lose To This M.A.S.H. Unit It Will Be Very Sad, +1 for Danny Hope Comeuppance Ahoy)
Loss will cause me to... resign myself to the end. Of Rich Rodriguez, people, not me.
Win will cause me to... OH MY GOD PETE FIUTAK THINKS WE'RE GOING TO THE INSIGHT BOWL YESSSSSSSSSS.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Vegas, statistics, and common opponent comparisons…
- Michigan beats Notre Dame 28-24, Purdue loses 23-12
- Michigan beats Illinois 67-65, Purdue loses 44-10
…all suggest a comfortable Michigan win. You're nervous, I'm nervous, everyone's waiting for the other shoe to flutter in the window and smack us in the face with a six-turnover day during which Lewan takes sixteen penalties and a disastrous chest bump sees all three Michigan quarterbacks tear ACLs.
But this is not reason! People! Set aside your paranoid fantasies, no matter how justified, and partake of a team that is somewhat hopeful because last week they were within a touchdown of Wisconsin late and only lost by three touchdowns. Even if their incredible passing YPA gets much better, there's no way Purdue can keep pace with Michigan's offense unless most of the aforementioned things happen.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Forcier enters the game by choice for a drive or two.
- Lewan mostly shuts off Kerrigan if they match the two up, but gives up at least one ugly sack or holding call.
- Robinson goes ham on the ground—150 more.
- Michigan, 35-24.