What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + FLEX TE + fullback.
THIS IS THE POST-SPRING UPDATE: changes! More than I'd like, actually. We've shifted some positions around with the over move and tried to pick through spring hype versus spring hope. Also "he played for 'Bama" hype versus hope.
PACK YOUR BAGS
1. QB Devin Gardner, Sr.* [Last time: 1]
No. No, there is not a quarterback controversy or competition or anything of the sort. No, the spring game means nothing in this regard. For the love of pants, please stop talking about this.
2. MLB Jake Ryan, Sr.* [ Last time: 2]
Shift to over defense kind of makes Ryan a man without a country, so they're going to try to make his country MLB. Skepticism severe around these parts, but that doesn't mean he's going to drop out of the starting lineup. Worst case he ends up playing SAM or DE or something. He'll be on the field. Possibly wondering what he should be doing.
3. WR Devin Funchess, Jr. [Last time: 3]
Spring start was no surprise. Has been officially confirmed a wide receiver forever and ever amen. Matchup nightmare should be frequent motion guy to discombobulate defenses, leap over them to make catches, possibly wiggle a bit in endzone. Fade this man, please. I mean seriously throw him a fade like every sixth play.
One look at the depth chart is enough to tell you he was too low last time. Michigan's only experienced safety, only upperclass safety, only guy who stayed back for most of the spring game as others were tasked with SS duties. He's going to start.
Surprising second-team ABT selection last year did round into a pretty good player by year's end. Much better against the run and capable of providing some pass rush, which was more than anyone else could say. On the cusp of serious breakout.
6. WLB Desmond Morgan, Sr. [Last time: 5]
I'm sticking to my guns. Morgan is the QB of the defense, hits harder than any other LB, and saved M's ass with the athletic INT pictured against UConn. Easily capable of moving to the over's WLB slot, which features a lot of head-banging against Gs. Ignore spring depth. Morgan starts.
Slides to Stevie Brown-style space SAM that operates as quasi-nickel at times. May or may not be well-suited to that, but with line looking like penetrators instead of space eaters that move seems good for him. Gets swallowed by Gs; makes quick reads.
UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS
8. SDE Brennen Beyer, Sr. [Last time: 9]
Where he needs to be technically, now needs weight. Won't star, but pressure from behind is not severe. M moved Taco Charlton to this spot, which is odd, and moved Keith Heitzman away from it. Hopes to end his career Craig Roh 2.0. Over SDE less of a DT than under, so that helps.
9. FLEX Jake Butt, So. [Last time: 10]
Tore ACL but word is that he's going to be back after a few games so we'll leave him here, and leave him high because no one else is going to be able to do the things he can. Capable receiver was also best inline blocker for M last year despite being 230 pound freshman; stardom beckons if the knee is all right.
10. NT Willie Henry, So.* [Last time: 11]
Pipkins injury forced move to nose tackle, where he languishes on fake spring depth chart. That gets five fakes out of five from this site. Hugely strong; get a sword of Pad Level +5 and he will star. Heavy rotation likely to feature Henry first off, move into Pipkins and Bryan Mone.
11. K Matt Wile, Sr. [Last Time: 12]
Gibbons graduates, leaving Wile the presumed starter at kicker. Has a bigger leg; does not have a track record of being automatic from within 42 yards give or take a shaky four-game sequence in his senior year. Will also handle kickoffs and at least pooch punting.
You have one job, Doug Nussmeier. Okay you've got like 50, but one of those jobs is to get to ball to this dude in space and see what happens. Was targeted on wheel route in spring game, which is fine, but seriously just try to get some cheap yards here.
FAIRLY SAFE BET
13. CB Blake Countess, Jr* [Last time: 4]
Welcome to cornerback row. Generally the further down you get here the more nervous you are about the slot; in this situation it is the opposite: Michigan has so many good options that this space has bumped Jabrill Peppers in favor of…
…the sticky-fingered sophomore who started over Countess and picked off a couple passes in the spring game. Lewis was right there as a freshman and any increment was going to make him good; now suited to Michigan's press style he demands playing time, possibly from…
…a guy who has started for two years and turned in a number of big plays a year ago. Taylor seems most vulnerable because he has not played nickel; realistically everyone gets playing time. Oh, and Peppers. Can he play OL?
16. G Graham Glasgow, Jr* [Last time: 16]
Will miss opener after offseason driving incident. Was most recently playing RT(!), which says that Michigan is open to moving him around what with this Chad Lindsay fellow maybe arriving. Showed ability to play G last year; will be on field, but where is unknown.
17. T Erik Magnuson, So.* [Last time: 17]
Spring absence did nothing to upset presumed death lock on left tackle job since by the spring scrimmage his replacement was true freshman Mason Cole. Hopefully can get up to 300 or so pounds despite the injury; M needs more POWER anywhere they can get it.
Visited for spring, saw… that, has ton of experience with Nussmeier, started four games for 'Bama last year. Hard to say a fifth-year transfer is a lock, but… uh… he's not coming here to play cribbage. Unless he thinks that would help.
19. P Will Hagerup, Sr.* [Last time: 27]
Still on pace to return this fall so we're moving him up from the bottom. This is so the bottom can be, like, all offensive linemen. Because that is both objective and emotional reality. Anyway, Hagerup is once again booming punts off the Glick ceiling because he has a massive leg cannon. Consistency, as always, is the bugaboo.
IN A BATTLE
Avalanche of spring hype offset by fact he still has no idea what to do; EE helpful in that regard. Jungle beats. Quick feet, quick hands, quick person. Jungle beats. Manningham 2.0? Let's hope so. Passed Chesson to start spring but still has to hold both him and Amara Darboh off; blocking could be an issue for wisp-thin FR.
More prominent than Wormley/Strobel in spring, so let's give him the tentative nod in a platoon situation. Has been getting way more insider buzz than either competitor thanks to Mike Martin-esque first step; at three tech can go one on one more often.
Moved immediately after bowl game and had apparently passed AJ Williams by spring. If he can block adequately will be large upgrade on that position's production from last year. Probably not useful in the receiving game; Michigan doesn't need him to be.
Hayes leaps into this spot after taking the first and most effective snaps in the spring scrimmage. Sometimes running back is about more than who has the tree-trunkiest thighs. Ask Mike Hart. (Actually, don't. Thighs for days.) Catching out of backfield a strength Nussmeier might use.
24. S Jeremy Clark, So.* [Last time: 23]
Still giving Clark the spot here but by this point these are the spots on the depth chart at which the coaches could tell you honestly that they have no idea. Clark, Dymonte Thomas, and Hill are all in the mix, as they say, and no one has tried to climb out of the bowl yet.
At this point Kerridge is a placeholder for what will be a diverse array of FB/HB back types ranging from pure FB Kerridge to FB/RB Shallman to FB/TE Hill, and then there's Sione Houma, who's kind of all of that plus amazing hair.
26. T Ben Braden, So.* [Last time: 26]
Still the presumed starter at right tackle but presence of Glasgow outside hints that Michigan may be looking at other options. Was too slow-footed to play guard; can he hold up in pass protection well enough to play tackle? Enormousness makes you hope so. Road grader if he works out.
27. G Kyle Bosch, So. [Last time: 25]
Under assumption that Lindsay comes in, Glasgow displaces one of Braden/Bosch/Kalis. Random guess here is that it's Kalis because Bosch should improve more as younger guy but your guess is as good as mine. So is Hoke's.
PUSHING FROM BEHIND
QB Shane Morris—Hosing hoser has cannon, occasionally uses it to throw things directly to Jourdan Lewis.
QB Wilton Speight—Navarre type wobbly in spring.
RB DeVeon Smith—occasionally looks like a promising grinder.
RB Derrick Green—lost the weight; had a nice bounce in spring game.
RB Drake Johnson—still recovering from ACL tear.
C Jack Miller—veteran presence provides options.
C Patrick Kugler—still behind Miller in spring.
G Kyle Kalis—battle for starting job will go to opening day.
G David Dawson—practiced at both tackle spots since arrival, now at guard. Likely to be one of top options should Michigan turn to bench.
T Logan Tuley-Tillman—looks part; still needs time to act it.
T Mason Cole—good for Cole that he was so prominent in spring as FR; bad for Michigan.
WR Jehu Chesson—had some promise in freshman season; punishing blocker for size.
WR Amara Darboh—still recovering from foot issue.
WR DaMario Jones—could push for some PT in slot.
NT Ondre Pipkins—hyped recruit got ACL tear at worst possible time. Could push through Henry. NT is platoon city, so not a huge distinction.
NT Bryan Mone—I've been waiting for a large Tongan DL my whole life.
SDE Henry Poggi—SDE now, still needs some time.
SDE Taco Charlton—Still adapting to new spot.
3T Tom Strobel—assume he plays SDE this year; buried as a 3T.
3T Chris Wormley—will at least platoon.
WDE Mario Ojemudia—will spot Clark.
SAM Royce Jenkins-Stone—over move very good for him as it makes his size an asset.
SAM Allen Gant—ditto Gant.
WLB Joe Bolden—nominal starter next to Ryan in spring, but has to hit/cover someone to hold that distinction.
WLB Ben Gedeon—freak athlete had some playing time late in the season.
CB Jabrill Peppers—you may have heard of this dude.
CB Channing Stribling—will be good if he just stops phasing out.
S Delano Hill—strong safety type has hitter's reputation, may be good fit w/ Wilson.
S Dymonte Thomas—burned redshirt to block that one punt; still raw.
Three New Offers
After seeing coveted four-star 2015 IN LB Josh Barajas make a surprise commitment to Penn State a couple weeks ago, Michigan didn't wait long to offer two more four-star Hoosier State linebackers: Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Asmar Bilal. Brandon has the full rundown on both of those offers, as well as a third that went out over the weekend to 2016 WI OT Ben Bredeson, who's expected to be one of the top-ranked linemen in his class.
While the recruitments of Bilal and (especially) Bredeson should take a while to play out, Kirkland plans to announce his decision on May 30th, and his top group is murky; Penn State and Tennessee appear to stand out along with Michigan among schools that have offered him, and his 247 predictions are all over the place. Kirkland told Brandon he may make another trip to Ann Arbor before his decision. If he does, I like Michigan's chances of landing him; if not, it's quite possible James Franklin continues to tear up the recruiting scene.
[Hit THE JUMP for visitor reactions from the spring game, updates on Sterling Jenkins and Kyonta Stallworth, and more.]
The spring game-type-substance maintained its downward importance trajectory, but as it's the last glimpse of one of the big three sports we'll have until fall we'll talk about it all the same. This year's edition further expanded the punting-drills-and-standing-around section of the practice, so observations are necessarily light on the ground.
It's bad when Doug Karsch can't keep the sarcasm out of his voice.
This video is in Michigan's traditional zoom-o-vision, so you can't actually tell what Lewis did to get in the position he's in for the first interception.
The tone. Last year's "I like this team" has been replaced.
“We’re doing a lot of good things, but we’re not near good enough as a team to win games in the fourth quarter, which we didn’t do (last season), and play on the road,” said Hoke, entering his fourth season. “We’re a long way from being any good."
That reflects the reality of the program.
Depth chart grain of salt reminder. Spring is a season for motivational devices and experiments and therefore places on the depth chart should be regarded as vague indicators more than anything else. Case in point: Graham Glasgow was your second-team right tackle.
Lewis is in your grill yo [Bryan Fuller]
Very aggressive /teddyKGB. Every offseason for a team without an elite defense features coaches promising increased aggression, whereupon most of them quietly drop that promise when the season rolls around and it turns out that for Defense X being super aggressive is a good way to give up quick touchdowns. The cycle repeats the next offseason.
Michigan is promising aggression, and Mattison is putting his cornerbacks where his mouth is. Lewis:
“It’s huge, just getting hands on guys and trying to intimidate them," Lewis said. "That’s our key point right there -- being physical. That’s what (defensive coordinator Greg) Mattison is always talking about, being a physical defense.”
They spent most of the scrimmage session in the grills of Michigan wide receivers, playing MSU-style bump and clutch and grab and run. Word from the coaching clinic is that Michigan is adjusting to the way the game has been called of late. Lewis again:
“He said ‘be physical’,” Lewis said. “But he doesn’t care if it’s great defense and we get a penalty.”
This was highly effective when not drawing two flags on Lewis—the second a dubious one—or that one time the offense got Freddy Canteen lost on a deep corner route. Everything else was contested, and when the ball got to the receiver the corners were making a play on it.
Lewis looked terrific after a spring in which inside practice buzz has heralded him as a major comer; hell, he looked terrific most of last year except for the bit where the opposing quarterback regularly put the ball in the six-inch window perfect coverage provides. In this game he had two interceptions and two flags along with other instances where his presence forced drops or tough catches. The first interception came on the first play of the scrimmage (0:45 above).
The video doesn't do it justice since it kind of looks like Lewis is coming over from a zone. That was pure press man coverage on which he did the one thing the gypsy promised him he'd never do: make a play on the ball after achieving his position.
Is he supplanting? I don't know, man. Usually two returning starters who had the number of excellent interceptions Taylor and Countess did have impregnable positions on the depth chart. This situation is not usual, though, as those guys didn't have impregnable positions even as they were doing that—Taylor was yanked from the starting lineup briefly, even. And the last impression Michigan's coaches have is both guys getting smoked by Tyler Lockett, an impression that Countess might have reinforced when Canteen beat him over the top Manningham-style. (Gardner left the throw short and Countess recovered.)
At the very least the competition here is a real one, unlike, say, quarterback. And corner is a position at which a lot of players will see the field. Lewis has at least claimed a spot in Michigan's nickel package, which is half your snaps these days. Even when not in nickel, Michigan rotated last year and they'll rotate this year. It's likely that Lewis gets as many snaps as the starters whether he is one on paper or not, and then you've got Stribling and Peppers. Delonte Hollowell is hanging around, delivering the occasional hard shot on the unsuspecting.
If the spring game indicates one thing, it's that cornerback is better-stocked than it's been in a long-time. Michigan doesn't have a Woodson (at least until fall, anyway), but I can say without hesitation that I'm more comfortable with Michigan's fifth corner than I usually am with their third. Remember Football Armageddon, when Michigan decided covering a first-round NFL draft pick with Chris Graham was their best option? Yeah. Not so much this year.
Wilson got over the top on a late throw [Bryan Fuller]
Aaaand safety. Much less clarity there, and very little to go on from the game-type section. Michigan spent much of the day rolling whoever wasn't Jarrod Wilson to the line of scrimmage to further their aggression goals, whereupon he would cover a fullback or something or watch as a run play did not get to him.
Wilson did have one nice PBU on a looping ball over the top. The ball was late thanks to some pressure that forced Gardner to roll around in the pocket, but that's the kind of ball a safety can make a play on and the play was made.
As far as depth chart stuff goes there was zero clarity. If you put a gun to my head I'd say Delano Hill was slightly preferred. And then I would say "but…" and you would shoot me. Let's not do this gun to the head thing when talking about Michigan's safeties.
The Jake Ryan experiment. First off, the admittedly not-particularly-meaningful spring depth chart gives me the willies. Ryan at MLB, Morgan second-string behind him, Bolden starting, Ross running on the second team at new tinySAM. I am full of the willies.
It's hard to tell much about linebackers in spring, harder yet when the offensive line they're up against is barely releasing to the second level*. On plays where I watched Jake Ryan he looked okay. He's kind of a long, upright guy, so when blockers get into him he tends to let them under him. On the edge he would just juke a guy and explode past him; in the middle you have to take the block on because picking the wrong side of the guy means you just blew your run fit.
I'm not sure where he fits in an over defense, though, so if you're going to make a shift he has to go somewhere.
Meanwhile, Joe Bolden's ample playing time has been mysterious to me. Linebacker remains the hardest position for me to have a Serious Opinion about because there's just so much that goes into it, but the things that Bolden seemed to be screwing up were really obvious things like not being anywhere near your pass drop. Meanwhile when it comes to hitting people in the face and making them stop going forward there is no comparison between Bolden, who has been a drag-you-down tackler to date, and Desmond Morgan, who thumps you and then you stop moving. Michigan's head coach says "toughness" every other word, and Morgan is much closer to that on the field than Bolden.
As a result I've promised to eat a lemon on the internet if Bolden starts the opener over Morgan. The rules: Morgan has to be healthy, Bolden has to start, and Morgan cannot start.
*[Michigan had a great deal of uninspiring runs of 1-3 yards but few TFLs except that one time they put Henry in against the third team OL. This was in large part because the offensive line was doing its damndest to not repeat the mistakes of last year. Instead of popping off opposing DL immediately, they were maintaining doubles longer than you really should. This made life at LB relatively easy and thus many plays where a tailback crosses the line of scrimmage and encounters a pile of men.]
Poggi SDE, Hurst 3-tech, Henry nose on a second or third unit
Line ups and downs. Here the limitations of spring practice overwhelm. Michigan's first-team offensive line read Cole-Bosch-Miller-Kalis-Braden; the second team featured a left tackle with an enormous cast on his hand. Grain of salt, grain of salt, grain of salt.
Anyway, Michigan had a few guys that looked impressive: Bryan Mone entered the backfield with regularity and Maurice Hurst Jr flashed the first step that was the bulk of his recruiting profile. That they've pushed Henry down the depth chart is an excellent sign even if that particular arrangement is clearly motivational after Henry established himself a legit Big Ten player a year ago. Brennen Beyer displayed an excellent ability to discard… uh… true freshman Mason Cole on a number of snaps. Beyer has always been an active hands guy; the question with him is his ability to hold up against 330 pound trucks. A matchup with Cole is not going to answer that.
Michigan got push up the middle of the pocket for large chunks of the scrimmages and while they weren't penetrating on run plays with regularity, see the aside above. When Michigan's options were limited in the half-line drills, they ended up in the backfield more often than not. It seemed like 80% of those runs cut back behind the center, which is a win for the DL in that drill.
As for guys who had bad snaps we will extrapolate much more from than is reasonable: at 2:55 in the video above Derrick Green gets one of Michigan's better runs on the day by bouncing outside; that is there because Glasgow locked up with and drove Henry Poggi well off the ball. Tom Strobel got easily handled on a successful Hayes power play at 2:25; a linebacker wearing a number in the 40s also picked the wrong hole. Also… does anyone know where Chris Wormley was? I don't recall seeing him; I googled to see if anyone had mentioned anything was up with him and came up empty, so I assume he was there but rather anonymous.
I have to punt on other defensive end observations, as I was focusing on the linebackers and secondary for much of the day.
- They're trying to make good on the promise to be aggressive.
- The cornerback depth is terrific and the top end should be quite good.
- Michigan has a solid young core at DT; DE is more uncertain.
- Linebackers… ask again later.
The coaching staff was very busy this weekend with all of the spring game festivities, a list of tasks that included handing out three new offers. Asmar Bilal and Darrin Kirkland Jr. are both “heat-seeking missile-type” linebackers from Indiana. They both received offers on the heels of a Josh Barajas commitment to Penn State. The coaches also delivered an offer to 2016 prospect Ben Bredeson, a big-time offensive lineman from the land of cheese.
Name: Darrin Kirkland Jr.
Position: Inside Linebacker
Ht/Wt: 6'2" / 225 lbs.
Location: Lawrence Central – Indianapolis, IN (2015)
Offers: Akron, Boston College, Cincinnati, Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, North Carolina, NC State, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Tennessee, Toledo, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin
Rating: ★★★★ .9191 (247 Composite)
Ranking: #201 NAT / #6 ILB (247 Composite)
Darrin Kirkland Jr. has unofficially visited Michigan multiple times and this weekend, while not on campus, he finally received an offer. On film Kirkland Jr. is a magnet to the football and gets to it in a hurry. He plays with high energy and athleticism as well as good fundamentals.
With the frequency that Kirkland has visited Michigan it’s clear he is fond of the Wolverines and he confirmed that to me.
Michigan is just a great school with great tradition. I’m going to be announcing my top 8 schools in the next couple of weeks and I think Michigan will definitely make that cut.
Once his top group is announce we won’t have to wait long to find out who his top school overall is.
I’m thinking about taking another unofficial visit to Michigan soon before I make my decision on May 30th.
When/if Kirkland Jr. takes another visit to Michigan I will catch up with him again to gauge where his interest level is as he nears a decision.
5 – Trending Blue
4 – Solidly in a top 2-3
3 – Contender in a top 3-7
2 – Among large (8-15) group under consideration
1 – Let’s see if he visits before we talk
0 – Passing interest or none
Kirkland wouldn’t come right out and say who his leader was but it very well could be Michigan. Without being able to nail that down for sure I’d say Michigan is solidly in a top 2-3. If he does take another trip to Ann Arbor between now and May 30 it would seem that Michigan has as good a chance as anyone to land him.
Name: Asmar Bilal
Position: Inside Linebacker
Ht/Wt: 6'3" / 205 lbs.
Location: Ben Davis – Indianapolis, IN (2015)
Offers: Cincinnati, Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, NC State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Western Michigan, Wisconsin
Rating: ★★★★ .9121 (247 Composite)
Ranking: #224 NAT / #7 ILB (247 Composite)
Asmar Bilal visited Ann Arbor back in February and while he wasn’t on hand this weekend for the spring events he was still offered by the coaching staff. I asked him to recall his thoughts from his February visit now that he has an offer and could realistically consider Michigan. Bilal was very excited to receive the offer and Michigan seems to be in good shape with him right now.
I just remember how the stadium was so huge. Michigan has a great coaching staff too. I like how they really expressed how getting a degree at a place like Michigan is really significant. They talked about how it can set you up for life after college just in case I don’t play football beyond college.
The coaching staff has consistently been able to connect with recruits on a level beyond the football field. That sentiment was obviously true with Bilal as well, but he wasn’t ready to call Michigan a leader for him just yet.
I can’t exactly say Michigan is my leader. There’s a lot of great schools that have offered me. I’m going to take them all into consideration to see what best fits me. Michigan is in my top group but I haven’t really sorted them yet. For now I’ll just say that they’re up near the top.
Bilal said that he wasn’t planning on releasing any sort of top group anytime soon, but the fact that he says Michigan is at “the top” leads me to believe they’ll be a factor throughout. Bilal told me that he’d like to visit Michigan again whenever he can arrange it and also would like to take an official sometime during the fall.
5 – Trending Blue
4 – Solidly in a top 2-3
3 – Contender in a top 3-7
2 – Among large (8-15) group under consideration
1 – Let’s see if he visits before we talk
0 – Passing interest or none
Bilal does have a lot of solid offers but I do believe Michigan will be firmly in the mix for him. Notre Dame recruits Indianapolis well and his crystal ball currently predicts him to wind up in South Bend. A return unofficial visit along with an official visit during the season would be big for Michigan.
Name: Ben Bredeson
Position: Offensive Tackle
Ht/Wt: 6'5" / 275 lbs.
Location: Arrowhead – Hartland, WI (2016)
Offers: Iowa State, Michigan, Tennessee, Wisconsin
The coaching staff doled out just the 16th offer for the 2016 class over the weekend, offering Ben Bredeson during his first visit to Ann Arbor. Bredeson, a Wisconsin native, has already reeled in an offer from the offensive linemen factory that is The University of Wisconsin.
I actually talked to Ben on Wednesday and he said he wasn’t really sure if Michigan was that interested in him or not. Clearly they are.
I talked to Coach Singletary and he told me that they wanted to get me out there as quickly as possible and I had this weekend free so I decided to head to Ann Arbor for the Spring Game. I’m not really sure if an offer is coming. I’d be happy if one did because Michigan is such a great school. I’m not necessarily expecting one though.
Obviously an offer did come and Bredeson was very happy about it.
Well I was really hoping it would happen. I talked to Coach Hoke in his offic for a while and he offered me while we were in there. It wasn’t a big dramatic thing. He was just very relaxed about it and told me that I had an offer to play at Michigan.
Being a Wisconsin native, it seems that the Badgers might be hard to beat out, which may be true, but Bredeson seems to have a genuine liking for Michigan as well.
I’m somewhat of Badger fan, I mean yeah I grew up watching them my whole life. I’ve always had a great respect for Michigan though. I’ve always like them too so I have a very high interest level in them. I don’t have a leader right now but Michigan is definitely up there. The visit was cool and the stadium was unbelievable. I also like the way that the coaches were just so personable with everyone.
5 – Trending Blue
4 – Solidly in a top 2-3
3 – Contender in a top 3-7
2 – Among large (8-15) group under consideration
1 – Let’s see if he visits before we talk
0 – Passing interest or none
It’s really early for Bredeson and his offer total is low, but that’s not going to last long. He has a spectacular build already and could easily get to a healthy 315-320 at the next level. Being from Wisconsin it’s hard to see the Badgers not landing him but once his offer list swells anything becomes possible. Michigan is in on him early and by default is part of a top 4, but I think Michigan could stay in that “moderately interested” zone for a while until he takes some more visits and really starts focusing in on his recruitment. At that point it will depend on how aggressively Michigan pursues him and where his interests lie as he starts to form opinions on different schools.
to foul or not to foul this stroke
Foul? An excessively long answer to an excessively long email.
Brain & Staff -
I'm a templar with high INT.
Here is my question - Would it have been a better move for Michigan to commit two quick fouls and put Kentucky on the line shooting 1 and 1 at the end of the game? After Michigan tied the game there were about 27 seconds left. After two fouls Michigan would likely have 20 seconds remaining to take the ball and make a game winning shot of their own.
Oh man, you are about to enter the final frontier of basketball strategy. For starters, this is never happening. John Beilein is a genius but he's not the kind of mad genius who would, say, leave his guys out there with two fouls in the first half even though they don't foul very much. This is a bridge too far.
But, yeah, I thought about it too. Let's look at it.
Here is why I think this is a superior strategy - please feel free to poke holes in it.
1) Kentucky was making 53.40% of their shots. Assuming this is a reasonable expectation for Kentucky's chance of success on its last possession and that they hold for the last shot, Michigan has a 53% chance of losing and a 47% of going to overtime. Michigan has no chance of winning (in regulation) under this scenario baring a huge mistake by Kentucky.
This is optimistic for your strategy. Last shots are bad shots, as Kentucky amply demonstrated. Ken Pomeroy frequently tweets out the fact that teams tied and in possession with the shot clock turned off win 67% of the time, which means they're hitting 34%. Last shots also usually don't provide much of an opportunity for a putback, and anyway that stat about winning the game folds all results in.
2) Putting Kentucky on the line for a one on one yields the following probabilities (assuming a 75% free throw shooter - which is higher than Kentucky's 54.5% average for the game):
56.25% chance Kentucky hits both shots = 2 points
18.75% chance Kentucky hits one shot = 1 point
25.00% chance Kentucky misses the first shot = 0 points
I'm assuming Michigan is able to grab any rebounds (perhaps a big assumption). The key here is that Michigan heads back down the floor with a 25% chance to win with a made shot and tie with a miss, an 18.75% chance that any shot will win the game. and 56.25% chance that any made shot will win or tie.
This is a bit pessimistic for your strategy. Hack-a-blank has been an infrequently deployed strategy throughout basketball history, and never has it drawn an intentional foul call. Michigan had two attractive targets: Alex Poythress, a 64% shooter, and Dakari Johnson, a 45% shooter. Johnson was on the floor. Hack-a-Dakari gives you the ball tied over half the time.
Well, about half the time. The rebound assumption is kind of a big one. In the NBA, about 14% of FT misses are grabbed by the offense. Michigan was giving up an epic OREB rate in this game, though that's somewhat mitigated by the fact that in our hypothetical scenario one of Kentucky's bigs is stuck on the free throw line and can't move until the ball hits the rim. But since your FT% assumption is high it's probably a wash.
3) Assuming we use Michigan's 47.8% field goal percentage in the game as a proxy for their changes of making a shot. I'm also assuming that the chance of taking a 2 or 3 mirror the game percentages as well.
Again, late shots are bad shots.
although sometimes they go in
The impact on Michigan would presumably be less since they're just running their offense looking for the best shot they can in about 25 seconds, so maybe the assumption about Michigan is on more solid ground. But then you've got a potential response from Kentucky and things get complicated fast.
I'm eliding the math based on this assumption in the email provided to cut to the chase, which is that fouling for a one-and-one against a 75% FT shooter looks like this:
This breakdown looks better to me than Kentucky holding for the last shot:
So, where am I going wrong OR why don't we see this strategy more often - especially with teams who have better free throw shooters (ie trading fouls at the end of the game would typically be a losing strategy for the other team).
Jamie (6th Generation - still have never posted)
The main thing that's off about this analysis is the assumption that Kentucky hits a shot at the same rate they did during the game; this is clearly not true otherwise teams would be winning closer to 75% of their games when they've got the ball with the shot clock off in a tie game.
The other thing that's off is that 75% assumption. Here's what the universe looks like if you foul someone you should foul:
|Player||Down 2||Down 1||Tied|
Down one is worse than being tied but it's hardly worse than a coinflip. When Arizona got the ball back with 31 seconds to go against Wisconsin down 64-63 Kenpom gave them a 45% shot at the game. It's basically compressing overtime into one shot. Meanwhile, being down two means you're now in a lose-or-OT situation similar to the one Kentucky just had with win-or-OT, except you have the option of hitting a 3. Michigan's quite good at this.
Things get complicated fast, but there is a threshold at which the foul is the right move. I think that threshold was breached once Calipari put Johnson on the floor. Part of this is the fact that Michigan is a brilliant offensive team. If the game's coming down to a last shot I want it to be Michigan's. And part of it is the stark line in the table above. Even including a standard OREB chance of 15%*, about 70% of the time you send Johnson to the line you get the ball and any bucket wins. The rest of the time you have a shot to go to OT or win with a three. I'm taking that chance.
…in the long-delayed aftermath, anyway. This isn't (much of) a criticism of Beilein. It's more of a thought experiment. Most people who have brought this up have done so in the context of "I wonder what if…" and then scribbled out assumption-laden percentages. During the event I was just trying not to die. I'm not sure Michigan should have spent any time figuring out how to shift the odds a bit in their favor if this one particular situation came up.
But, yeah, I think if there's a 45% FT shooter on the floor and you have the opportunity to put him on the line for a 1-and-1 in a tie game you do it.
*[Given the way the game was going you may question this but remember that Johnson's at the line and Kentucky is unlikely to have anyone other than Randle as a post since a Michigan rebound would then put Kentucky in a very awkward place defensively. Also Michigan can put two bigs in and call timeout after. Seems fair enough.]
O! that a man might know
The end of this day's business, ere it come;
On the morrow we shall be bath'd in sunlight and spring football, but today, my friends, is an opportunity nearly as great and many times as wet. For this eve shall mark the inaugural Go Blue Bowl, whence a crapload of Michigan football alumni shalt descend upon the institution of secondary education known as Pioneer High School and forthwith become as volunteer coaches.
Here's yon latest roster (by graduation year) and what these noble knights hath been doing these years hence which I know what of offhand:
|Yes, Donovan, I'm getting to those.|
- Marcus Ray, BTN and WTKA analyst
- Ron Bellamy, head football coach West Bloomfield
- Dave Pearson, (don't know; I'll ask)
- Bennie Joppru, who calls himself "NFL bust, major weirdo creep" on twitter
- Cato June, head coach of Anacostia in D.C.
- Andy Mignery, WTKA radio personality
- Chris Perry, a non-MGoBlog reader
- Brandon Williams, director of Go Blue Then and Now
- Earnest Shazor, working in health care
- Roy Manning, University of Michigan Athletic Director and CEO and Future-Creating Chief Visionary Officer Dave Brandon Who Has a Six Pack Cornerbacks Coach at the University of Michigan
- Marlin Jackson, director of the Fight for Life Foundation
- Jerome Jackson, sometime MGoBlog reader
- Steve Breaston, NFL free agent
- Tim Massaquoi, college counselor and clinical psychologist
- Jason Avant, NFL free agent
- Donovan Warren, NFL free agent who's been trying to start up a new youth football league
- Jordan Kovacs, NFL safety for Miami
- Mike Schofield, NFL draft prospect; and
- Jeremy Gallon, pint-sized NFL draft prospect.
Also on hand this evening: precipitation. Yes, we're playing anyway.
There's one spot left on the alumni teams. The event is to help launch the same three Fight for Life Foundation programs in Ann Arbor and environs that have helped so many disadvantaged kids get back on track in Indianapolis.
Diaries as Soliloquy:
To foul, or not follow, that is the question.
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to put
their 50-percent free throw shooters on the line
and in so doing, give ourselves a chance to respond,
Or to take Caris LeVert's arm
against a three point attempt of troubles
And by opposing end them?
O mighty Izzo! Dost thy teams lie so low'?
Are all thy conquests, glories, triumphs, spoils,
accomplished with talent of so little measure?
I know not, gentlemen, what you intend,
Who else must be let blood, who else's recruits were of such rank:
If I myself, there is no honor so fit
As State's death hour.
You three, Sheehey, Fischer, and Vonleh,
Have sworn for four years' term to live with me
My fellow-scholars, and to keep those statutes
That are recorded in this schedule here:
Your oaths are pass'd; and yet to transfer/NBA exits you subscribe your names,
That his own hand may strike his honour down.
Hark. a program in miniature.
Best of the Board
BETCHA CAN'T HIT BETSA
The latest in softball is freshman phenom Megan Betsa threw a no-hitter. Your move, Wagner. Also: WTH, athletic department who scheduled the baseball and softball games at the same time as the Spring Game?
Ghost of BCook's Ethics (?) started an interesting discussion topic: Michigan basketball recruits who didn't live up to the hype. Other than a handful of obvious guys there aren't all that many on the ground. I submit Amadou Ba. Not a hyped prospect, really, but it was cool to have a big man from Africa. He played just 43 minutes in his career behind Courtney Sims, Graham Brown, and Chrus Hunter. Just think of monster slams where we could yell "BAAAAAAAH!"
ETC. Next Beckmann (seriously asking, is it not obviously Karsch?)? An HTTV for Penn State fans. Just offer in-state Drew Brees already! Show up early for the spring game to see the Schembechler museum, or stop by tonight to see a giant statue of the man who most defined the Michigan
we know today they're now systematically replacing with monuments and such.
Your Moment of Zen:
Sometimes an opponent's last-second, contested three-pointer goes in. Other times…