a terrible blight on our fine country
Checking in with Michigan’s NBA Wolverines --
Knicks Sell Low, Hawks Hope to Buy High on THJ
On June 25th, the New York Knicks traded Tim Hardaway Jr. for the draft rights to Jerian Grant, taken by the Atlanta Hawks at pick #19. Atlanta, which had traded back from #15 – part of Brooklyn’s trade for Joe Johnson – eventually also acquired two future second-round picks from Washington in addition to Hardaway, the former Wolverine who is now entering his third season in the NBA.
The trade, from Atlanta’s point of view, was considered a mistake, earning a “D” grade from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton:
After a solid rookie season, Hardaway regressed badly in Year 2, making just 34.3 percent of his 3-pointers and posting a below-average true shooting percentage. Hardaway needs to be a knockdown shooter because he's such a liability at the other end of the floor… Perhaps the Hawks believe that in their system they can develop Hardaway into a capable defender… Consider me skeptical…
During the draft, #NBATwitter was shocked at the move:
The Knicks getting a 1st for Tim Hardaway Jr is...wow.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) June 26, 2015
@m0beatZ I have faith in the Hawks to develop him, but he's so awful defensively, it wouldn't be hard to find someone
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) June 27, 2015
I would have traded Tim Hardaway straight up for the 60th pick, so
— Seth Rosenthal (@seth_rosenthal) June 26, 2015
Knicks get their point guard in Jerian Grant. Hawks get Tim Hardaway. Winner? Knicks.
— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) June 26, 2015
Enjoy Tim Hardaway Jr., Atlanta. He's very good at taking shots. Also, being related to former NBA players. Also, other stuff, I'm sure.
— ☕netw3rk (@netw3rk) June 26, 2015
Even if Atlanta “lost” the trade, the clear short- and long-term winner in this deal is Hardaway – regardless of how the 19th pick (Notre Dame superstar senior point guard Jerian Grant, who also has NBA bloodlines, was taken, but Delon Wright, Justin Anderson, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Tyus Jones were also available) turns out, the Knicks parlayed an expendable asset (which was evidently overvalued with that pick) into Grant’s potential as a starting NBA point guard and Hardaway moves from the 17-win Knicks to the 60-win Hawks at a critical juncture in his career.
New York was the worst NBA team in several advanced metrics last season and, because of trades and injuries, the only players to play in at least half of their games (with a minimum of 1,000 total minutes) were Shane Larkin, Jason Smith, Hardaway, Langston Galloway, Quincy Acy, and Jose Calderon. Of those guys, Calderon and Smith had the highest career PER numbers; theoretically, Hardaway was the third-best player on the most abysmal team in the league. That might actually be overstating things, because it’s hard to accurately measure defensive impact and Hardaway was frequently criticized for a lack of ability and / or effort on that end of the floor.
In hindsight, getting drafted by the Knicks was clearly poor for Timmy’s career development. After declaring for the draft in the weeks following Michigan’s Final Four run, Hardaway parlayed a strong set of workouts and what was perceived to be a weak draft class into a first round contract with New York. Tim was pretty solid as a rookie – he tallied 20 or more points ten times and shot 130-358 (36%) from three, a solid clip and substantial volume. He finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting and wound up on the first-team All-Rookie team alongside Michael Carter-Williams, Victor Oladipo, Trey Burke, and Mason Plumlee. Although the ‘13 draft class has seemed as mediocre as predicted, Hardaway did have a better rookie season than two players with potential star power – the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Rudy Gobert (a French center who plays with Trey in Utah).
[After THE JUMP: there is no sauce affiliated with Philly.]
AHHHH PLAY FOR MICHIGAN
Ex-Harbaugh staffer: 'A great white shark, mouth open, staring at you'
That's from a longer profile he wrote in May on the often-inscrutable Harbaugh. I referenced this yesterday, but whenever these things happen I think about a Nietzsche quote despite never having read any Nietzsche. You see, there was this science-fiction Civ game called Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri and when you got one of the techs it always said this at you:
Man is a rope, tied between beast and overman—a rope over an abyss. A dangerous across, a dangerous on-the-way, a dangerous looking-back, a dangerous shuddering and stopping. What is great in man is that he is a bridge and not an end: what can be loved in man is that he is an overture and a going under. I love those who do not know how to live, for they are those who cross over.
-- Friedrich Nietzsche ,"Thus Spoke Zarathustra"
Pretentious! But sometimes Harbaugh does not know how to live, like when he's on a national radio show and the preening show host starts in by asking him if he's ever soft. The vision of masculinity presented by Cowherd is so disorienting to him that his mind goes blank in terror*.
The good news is that Harbaugh can now enact the Thought Control government form. So he's got that going for him.
*[Just as I recoil at the arrogant bro-dom presented by Jim Rome.]
More Harbaugh. Face time in the 1993 Rose Bowl.
Doesn't say much there, either.
Yes, please. The NCAA may be slightly loosening its tie when it comes to the NBA draft:
Under the proposal, which was a coordinated effort by the NCAA, the National Association of Basketball Coaches and the NBA, underclassmen would be allowed to attend the Chicago pre-draft combine in May, get evaluated by team personnel and given a true reading on their draft status. The players would then be able to decide if they wanted to stay in the draft or return to school. They couldn't sign with an agent, though.
The current draft rules don't allow a player to return to college once he officially declares for the NBA draft. The NBA would still have an early entry deadline of late April and an official withdrawal date of 10 days before the draft, as per the collective bargaining agreement. But the NCAA would then have its own withdrawal date moved up from the week after the Final Four to sometime in mid-to-late May.
That last sentence is confusingly worded and should be "moved back". This is progress of a sort—the kind of progress that takes you back to about eight years ago when this was the standard. College coaches hated it because they didn't know who would go and who would stay when the late signing period—which also starts about week after the Final Four—began. So they changed it. Now they might change it back.
Anything that acknowledges the reality of the NBA and NFL is a good change. This one is a bit half-hearted, and it seems like it's flirting with disaster to make this change without delaying the late signing period. Kid signs, other kid decides to return: whoops. You know that's going to happen.
The best solution here is draft and follow.
Exposure to price. When people start talking about the inevitable cable unbundling that is coming, they often make this calculation: if only X percent of people would get ESPN and ESPN costs Y amount of money, then ESPN is going to cost Y * (1 / X) dollars. That's a lot of dollars! Bet you don't want unbundling now! An example:
So you'd think a standalone ESPN app, with all their channels, would cost around the same [as Netflix, Hulu, HBO, etc.]. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast. ESPN's perceived value and what the network actually needs to sustain their business model are vastly different.
One industry source I spoke to believes ESPN would have to charge sports fans at least $30 a month for an a la carte version of the networks to offset lost cable subscriber fees and advertising. MoffettNathanson Research believes Disney would have to charge $36.30 a month for ESPN to achieve the same level of reach it enjoys today.
At this point, we've reached a similar structure to European television. Channels such as Sky Sports, which carries popular properties like the English Premiere League, are not part of the basic service and run at $40 a month for the family of networks. Sky Sports even offers "day passes" for roughly $15. While hardcore American sports fans can justify similar prices here in the States, casual fans will balk and just catch the big event games on over-the-air networks.
But as taxi drivers and music labels and newspapers have found out, the internet tends to erode comfortable perches from which you can rake in piles of dough. ESPN has the advantage of still being a monopoly, but if the product was the only reason you could charge Y dollars you would not be able to get every song ever made for ten dollars a month.
The existence of Sling TV, which has ESPN and ESPN 2 and 18 other channels besides, for 20 bucks, is plenty of evidence that ESPN cannot reach that price point—and probably will not even try. Sky is a very different business model because the thing that is by far their main attraction, soccer, is virtually ad-free. You get some signage in the stadium, shirt sponsors, and halftime when everyone goes to the bathroom and gets a snack. That's it. The prime reason American sports keep spiraling in value (and can no longer fit in their assigned time slots) is that they are much more amenable to commercial breaks. Sky is trying to maximize its revenue; ESPN's attempt to maximize its revenue is going to come in much lower because 1) Americans are going to balk at the 40 dollar price and 2) advertisers want the eyeballs ESPN can deliver so very badly.
ESPN is currently subsidized by a lot of people who do not care about sports. When the internet is television, that goes away—and it does not necessarily get replaced one for one.
This is why adding Maryland and especially Rutgers was folly. In the near future the only people who get the Big Ten Network are going to be people interested in the Big Ten. They will no longer be able to snatch a dollar from the pocket of every cable subscriber in New Jersey who is a Tulane man. This is going to happen in ten years, at which point whatever short-term revenue gain will be spent, Jim Delany will have his bonus, and the Big Ten will be stuck with a couple of teams nobody cares about.
[HT: Get The Picture.]
Sauce relocates. Nik Stauskas is traded to the 76ers for… uh… stuff?
Many in Philadelphia wanted Stauskas last year. Now, 12 months later, Hinkie got him, a 1st rd pick, and 2 pick swaps for basically nothing.
— Derek Bodner (@DerekBodnerNBA) July 2, 2015
Stauskas had a rough first year in the NBA in a terrible situation, but that's awful quick to give up on a guy and dump him with some terrible contracts in exchange for cap space. Like the Pistons giving away a first round pick to be done with Ben Gordon, the main "asset" Sacramento acquired was the ability to not have Carl Landry on their cap any more. So they could go sign more free agents. Someone try to rip the face off the Kings GM just in case it's Joe Dumars.
Only incompetent Germans. Louisville's new helmet is… this…
Which I kind of like for an Arena League team. Of the future. Playing a life and death game against octopus space nazis.
Here is a conveniently-timed article titled "Adidas: Sports Apparel Laughingstock."
The old recruiting ghost story. Willie Williams has been revisited. It is a funny and sad story, one that you've probably heard before. Apropos of little, here is former Florida Gator on his trip to Penn State:
As if that story wasn’t juicy enough, Crowder spoke of his visit to Penn State as a recruit, which was “the worst.”
“They sit me in a room with two bottles of Mad Dog 20/20 Banana Red,” Crowder said. “They say ‘drink these, we’re gonna go out.’ Okay, I get all feeling good. We walk out of the door, go down two doors and go back into an apartment and it’s four big white girls sitting there and me. Big ole white girls. Talkin’ about 250.”
Crowder no doubt said his decision was all about the academics.
Here's this! It is a show featuring a bunch of Michigan guys, one a former walk-on QB under Moeller, and an mgoshirt.
It appears it is still looking for a home. If you are a TV executive, adopt it maybe.
Etc.: Here is a good thing about the buddha-fication of David Foster Wallace. Akron built a stadium. It's not going well. Warde Manuel($) is a name to watch for Hackett replacement. Bring Your Champions, They're Our Meat on the NBA Draft.
I listen to Colin Cowherd for you. Jim Harbaugh tried out his best Jim Tomsula impression on Colin Cowherd's show this morning:
I dunno man. I wonder if Harbaugh, a high-functioning lunatic, has points at which his function isn't so high. There is a general antipathy for press conference questions… a lot of the time. There is a general antipathy for lazy questions… some of the time. The questions Cowherd fired off were typical Cowherd: somewhat off-putting but nothing that an average person would get his dander up at, and Harbaugh is immediately in I Don't Know mode.
There are ways I think you can rescue it when he gets in that mode. Number one is talking about his players. Harbaugh loves talking about guys he has coached. But I don't think Cowherd really did anything. Harbaugh just wasn't in the mood from the drop. Steve Lorenz accurately describes it as "troll on troll crime."
Happy first-ish day of work at your new Harbaugh-wranglin' job, Zach Eisendrath! It's a very good idea to have a specific person whose only job is to wrangle Harbaugh, but I worry about the men who try to bridge the gap between beast and overman. I await the day the relentlessly upbeat Eisendrath turns his twitter feed into the SID equivalent of Nihlist Arby's.
Draw the blinds. shut out the sun. Cry. The pile of meat has been on the table for weeks. Just eat it & go back to bed. Arbys: edible.
— Nihilist Arby's (@nihilist_arbys) July 1, 2015
I am surprised that I have not already been followed by thirty different "parody" accounts called Nihilist Harby's.
Colin should have read the operating manual though. When this Sacramento Bee story came out we all had a laugh about it and forgot. And then…
Your Harbaugh does not function like other head coaches. An innocuous query about the weather, for instance, could trigger a florid quote from Admiral William Halsey. And yet a routine question about a running back’s knee injury may cause your Harbaugh to wince, pause and grimace as if a malodorous scent has wafted into the room. Your Harbaugh’s default in this instance is: “We don’t really talk about that here” or “I can’t get inside his body” or “He’s working through something.” This is a design flaw our technicians in California have not yet worked out.
Your Harbaugh will be enormously affectionate one day and cold and distant the next. This is normal.
After Eisendrath starts wearing eyeliner and listening to My Chemical Romance 24 hours a day, Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee has a job waiting for him. A job he should not take. Yes, even if he works for a print newspaper.
Brock Mealer wants to help other people walk. You won't know that you've missed Mike Barwis's gravel truck of a voice until about ten seconds into this:
Whyyyyyyyy. SBNation's Steven Godfrey has a piece on why there are so many neutral-site games and they continue to increase:
College football's neutral-site games are gaining in popularity because they make a lot of money for the companies and institutions involved.
But demand is even higher among schools suddenly looking to schedule tougher opponents. Consider it knee-jerk hysteria in the wake of Baylor's exclusion from the College Football Playoff, a move often explained as a product of weak non-conference scheduling.
"If you can break your $600,000 [deal for a game against] Akron to go cash $1.2 million from Allstate ... well, there's no catch any more," the agency rep said. "TCU not getting in [the Playoff despite being] at No. 3 the week before scared every athletic director shitless."
Now, you might be thinking to yourself "why would a neutral site game make more money than a home game?" There are three main reasons:
- You can get away with more sponsor stuff at a neutral site. The Blank And Blank Classic, etc.
- You can jack up ticket prices. When Michigan played Alabama at Jerryworld, the minimum price to get in the door was $125, with non-suite tickets ranging up to $245 face. It sold out because it was Michigan against Alabama. Neither school dropped their PSDs a cent.
- The neutral site (sometimes) controls the TV revenue. Most conferences have stipulations that TV revenue is shared, even nonconference TV revenue. This goes for "neutral site" games in the geographical footprint of the conference, but generally does not extend past that. That's why Washington State played Notre Dame in Texas several years back—ND wanted to control that revenue and could not do so in the Pac-12 footprint. That was not the case for Michigan-Alabama, however.
Now, even with all those advantages a neutral site game could only come up with 4.7 million for Michigan—less than they would have gotten for beating up on a cupcake. For a team like TCU, though, the financial equation is much different.
Michigan's got another one coming up because they had a terrible contract against Notre Dame and got left in the lurch; after 2017 against Florida they should never play a neutral site game again. In this, at least, Jim Delany is an aid:
In 2013, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany issued a memo requiring any Big Ten school playing off-campus games to be designated the home team in at least half of the matchups, and that half of the games take place in the Big Ten's footprint. The two-game series between LSU and Wisconsin in Houston and Green Bay is the example.
Never say Jim Delany didn't do one thing right in his whole life.
Instead of having a neutral site game with those ticket advantages, you should ask your fans if it's okay to have big prices for a big game, and when they say YES YES YES then do it.
YOU WERE. There was a time in the 90s when Ohio State would roll in to The Game with a shiny record and national championship aspirations and a 7-4 Michigan team would destroy them. It wasn't exactly halcyon since, uh, 7-4, but there was a grim satisfaction in dragging those bastards into the pit with us. This happened so often that I can't remember which of these games featured this exchange between myself and an Ohio State fan deep into the third quarter:
"You guys are pathetic! You're 7-4! We are national championship contenders!"
"You WERE national championship contenders."
Better that than the recent stuff, I guess. Anyway, ERASE THIS GAME—which still hasn't tackled #M00N—features the 1993 version of La Brea Tar Stadium, in which Tyrone Wheatley* did this:
And Ohio State did this:
- never crosses into the Michigan red zone
- goes two of twelve on third down
- averages two yards per carry compared to Michigan's five
- gets shut out by the Wolverines for the first time since 1976
- misses going to the Rose Bowl after Wisconsin beats Michigan State in Tokyo because the tiebreaker at the time eliminated the most recent Rose Bowl invitee
- seriously, that was a way the Big Ten decided who got to go to the Rose Bowl, and it's basically "aw heck you're due"
I would prefer that we keep this game, and possibly bronze it.
*[Whenever I watch Wheatley run these days I think that Brandon Minor was born 20 years too late to be a somewhat disappointing first round NFL draft pick.]
Etc.: Harbaugh throws out first pitch, talks to media personably afterwards. This is normal. An oral history of Barry Alvarez making Wisconsin into Wisconsin. You should probably read it. Harbaugh on the Tigers.
Ace is on vacation this week.
Rashan Gary is never impressed
NJ DT Rashan Gary, the consensus #1 player in the country, has been on Michigan's radar for a while. Michigan has been the tentatively presumed leader after they hired Chris Patridge, Gary's high school coach, to be their recruiting coordinator. Gary himself hasn't said much, but after a swing through the Midwest on visits that's beginning to change.
Sam Webb recapped Gary's visit on the Scout message board($). Gary's mom:
"Michigan hit every detail," Jennifer Coney said. "EVERY detail."
There's a bunch more at the link. The vibes there are pretty good; Gary is planning one more trip this summer, to Georgia, and then they plan on narrowing his list. It does not sound like OSU is going to be a main competitor.
But it's never easy with a guy as highly touted as Gary. 247's Steve Wiltfong:
— Steve Wiltfong (@SWiltfong247) June 29, 2015
Sounds good... except that Wiltfong put in an Auburn Crystal Ball for Gary. Gary's mom again($):
“You can know for sure Michigan is going to make the cut,” Jennifer Coney, Gary’s mother said. “You know Auburn is going to make the cut."
That would be a top two, then.
Michigan is also in on five-star CA LB Caleb Kelly, who was in attendance for a satellite camp in his area. He has a very practical take on things:
"It's like any other coach: you get told what to do, and you go ahead and you do it. It's just cool to have it be from the Michigan coaches. It's a big-name school and that's cool."
He has a who's who of offers; Oklahoma is currently strong on his Crystal Ball.
The New Jersey Migration of the Early Harbaugh Epoch
A pile of New Jersey (and environs) players made it out to Ann Arbor last week, with great success. Four star NJ DE Ron Johnson is already in. Four star NJ WR Brad Hawkins, Johnson's teammate, is probably next. He is scheduled to announce on Friday; Michigan and South Carolina are pretty much the only contenders; he has a visit scheduled to Michigan for July 19th.
Rule eight of following recruiting is that "a recruit who has a visit scheduled for after an announcement is going to the school he is visiting." (Rules 1, 3, 7, 13, 50, and 121 are "DON'T TWEET AT RECRUITS." Number 144 is "SERIOUSLY.") Also, Michigan has fielded every Crystal Ball pick since February.
Ahmir Mitchell has a bowling trophy
Fellow NJ WR Ahmir Mitchell is also nearing a decision. Star-Leger reporter Todderick Hunt:
2 teams stand out 4 Mitchell although he's not ready 4 me 2 release them at this time. But seems to B gettin closer. pic.twitter.com/BEOgONFUZF
— Todderick Hunt (@TodderickHunt) June 27, 2015
Michigan is one of those teams. OSU is the other according to Rivals. Mitchell just announced that he would not be doing any more interviews before his decision, so he's clearly thinking about making one in the near future. Lorenz is hearing positive things($), and the Crystal Ball is an M blowout.
BTW, Mitchell's pretty good($).
There are few players in the country that are comparable to Mitchell. His size, explosiveness, competitiveness and reliable hands were on full display on Saturday. Cornerbacks that tried to jam him at the line of scrimmage were quickly dispatched and errant passes were hauled in with ease. There was one pass that Mitchell hauled in with one hand between two defenders. He had to pin it against his body because the defender was holding onto his other arm.
In not-quite-New-Jersey-but-pretty-much, Philly-based PA TE Naseir Upshur came back from the trip beaming, rating it a "ten of ten($)". He's got a commitment date scheduled for August 8th. Rule nine of following recruiting is "a recruit who issues a commit date soon after a visit is probably going to that school." When that doesn't happen, it's usually because another school swoops in with a visit before the announce date and changes things. That is a possibility here($):
*Alabama is still very likely to add another tight end to its current 2016 haul of two standing commitments at the position, and one of their top targets - Naseir Upshur - a 6-foot-2, 233-pound four-star prospect out of Philadelphia, will be visiting Tuscaloosa with his family on July 17. Michigan is trending with Upshur on the Crystal Ball at 74 percent at the moment. Upshur plans to commit on August 8.
We saw Alabama grab Khalid Kareem. It could happen, but Steve Lorenz notes that($) "Michigan's lead has reportedly grown into a very strong one at this point" and that he is one of the safest bets on Michigan's board" at the moment.
Finally, 2017 NJ OL Cesar Ruiz was on the trip, picked up an offer($), and sounds very excited about it. Michigan is a tentative early leader.
Sometimes I get the feeling that a certain player is not going to end up at Michigan despite everyone assuming they'll end up at Michigan. This usually happens when Michigan's lead goes on and on and on without a commitment actually happening. See: Parrker Westphal.
In related news, FL LB Jonathan Jones still maintains that Michigan is his leader($):
Sam Webb: It seems like someone is committing to Michigan every day. Is the number of scholarships they have left something that is on your mind at all?
Jonathan Jones: “Not really. I’ll be honest when it comes to all my top schools. Four years is a huge part of my life and I’m going to train that out and I’m not going to rush myself for any school. … I’m going to be honest with you, I’m real pressed to go there. There my leader most definitely, but it just wouldn’t be a wise decision to check out that school and leave all my other options unsettled."
Jones wants to take all his officials and may decide as late as signing day, and doesn't appear to be the type of guy to get sped up because Michigan is filling up. Michigan would definitely take him now. Will they take him in December or January? Depends on a lot of things.
FWIW, Jones has an academically-oriented top five of M, Notre Dame, Duke, Stanford, and Oklahoma and seems to be the kind of guy who Harbaugh is after.
"Jim Harbaugh is their new coach and he has a lot of NFL experience," he discussed about the Wolverines. "He can translate that to the college game, and I can gain a lot of knowledge from what he has to offer. I have a lot of family on my father's side that lives in Detroit. That's not too far away so I'll have them there to support me if I went there. Their academics stand out."
They'll have to beat out some heavy hitters here. Alabama, FSU, Georgia, and Clemson are also on his list. Kelly came out to Sound Mind, Sound Body, so there's real interest there. Wiltfong says Michigan is "very much in it."
Michigan's also recruiting AZ DE Connor Murphy, who relates his weird history with Harbaugh on the tubes:
This one's a longshot, but Michigan's trying to get GA DE Antonneous Clayton on campus for a visit($).
Swenson still around
IL OL Erik Swenson has been committed to Michigan for over a year now—his recruiting profile is going to start the same way Tyree Kinnel's did—and Nick Baumgardner would like to remind you of his existence:
"The first thing (Harbaugh) told me was 'you're a lot bigger than you look in pictures,' " Swenson laughed. "He's a great guy. He's not the guy he sometimes gets portrayed as in the media, the guy who is always yelling and screaming, doing anything for a win. He wants to win, obviously and he can be serious, but he's funny, relaxed. He's got a great personality."
Swenson's now a part of a great OL recruiting class that is currently four deep on touted prospects and could add a fifth any day now if MD OL Terrance Davis decides to drop.
Reese maybe not so much
Michigan has a couple of wavering linebacker commits. One is instater David Reese, who apparently committed as fullback but is now having second thoughts. This might have something to do with MI WR Desmond Fitzpatrick's recruitment. The two are teammates and Fitzpatrick seemed like he was about to flip from Louisville to Michigan… and then didn't.
That and Reese's desire to play linebacker have him poking around. He took a visit to Maryland:
"I just want the initial opportunity to play linebacker because that's where my heart is. But I understand that if I didn't start for two years then I would want to see the field-of course I want to play. So of course I would go at fullback. But I feel like I can actually play at linebacker."
He offered the "I'm committed but keeping my options open" spiel as well. If I had to bet I'd guess he ends up flipping elsewhere.
Etc.: 2017 TN RB Cordarrian Richardson is a guy to keep an eye on.NC OL Landon Dickerson sets an official for Oregon State. Michigan has faded with CA CB David Long but he is planning a visit($) before a decision. Stanford is a heavy leader.
While I was chatting with Brian last week he happened to pull up the top 7 composite recruits from the 2013 season. I followed and…
Woof. Green has obvious vision problems and hasn't emerged from a pile of guys among whom the most statistically effective last year was Drake Johnson. Dymonte Thomas and Shane Morris are already juniors and to date still seem to be at least a year's worth of good coaching away from ready.
That leaves us the offensive line class. Kugler seems to be on track to start when Glasgow surrenders his job—I've heard the same suite of nice things you have. Bosch transferred after performing about how you'd expect a true freshman thrust into a Borges-coached OL would. Fox hasn't been mentioned since a staff ago. Dawson we have only a little more data, much of that getting owned by Maurice Hurst in the spring game (if Hurst does that against Utah's OL I'll happily rescind that as a criticism).
On the other hand we caution all the time about giving up on OL when they're too young.
So when do you know about an offensive lineman?
This is a question I've been interested in a long time, going back to an article one of my Daily colleagues did on OL recruiting to highlight the injuries plaguing the classes Michigan took while I was there. I could never find the article but in January 2013 I tried to recreate some of that information, plus a 12-year update. I did a thing about a year ago on growth tracks to reset expectations for those 2012 and 2013 line classes. Let's check in again, this time with columns.
The towers shrink because players currently on the roster are included in the data, and obviously our information on them is incomplete. "Not available" is a catch-all for transfers, dismissals, guys playing defense, injuries and medicals and whatnot. "Excellent" is basically all-conference-ish, "Solid" is that, "Liability" are guys who were starting but the fan consensus was they shouldn't be or wouldn't but for things like the 2008 depth chart or gross Borges incompetence.
This time I differentiated between "backups" and "two-deep" (an imperfect thing from memory and pouring through old Wolverine annuals). The former are guys buried on the depth chart and unlikely to play; the latter are only the top backups we are relatively certain would have played if they weren't behind an established starter. It's not about being technically on the two-deep, more like the first one or two guys in if an OL goes down—Erik Magnusson last year, or Leo Henige forever.
- Redshirting is overwhelmingly the normal thing to do as a freshman.
- Only a handful of players are capable of starting (shades of yellow) as redshirt freshmen. If you take the yellow chunk from there and size it against the 4th and 5th years you can see only about a third of the eventually useful players are demonstrably so at that age. Sing the praises of any 2014s already playing; don't give up on any who are not.
- By RS Soph there is a big yellow expansion. The mysterious "backups" region has shrunk considerably. You have a fairly good sense of who these guys are by the end of this year.
- There is very little difference—just a slight improvement—between RS Juniors and 5th year seniors. The backups disappear into unrenewed 5ths.
If you're using this imperfect data set of 82 players, many of whom didn't complete their careers for non-ability-related reasons, to get a feel for when to judge an offensive linemen, you could say it's a half-life. Don't judge a (redshirt) freshman unless he's already playing well, but after their third year in the program if he's not on the two-deep the chances of ever doing so decrease exponentially.
What this means for the 2012-'14 OL classes
Be excited for: Mason Cole.
Be extremely content with: Mags, Kalis and Braden if they seem to be playing well this year.
Keep an eye out for: Kugler, Logan Tuley-Tillman, and David Dawson. These are 2013 guys mentioned as probable two-deep contributors, though our current scouting has Kugler pretty much ready to play, LTT half-way there, and Dawson probably not ready yet. Further data received on them this year will speak volumes about their futures.
Be patient with: Juwann Bushell-Beatty. If he pops up this year he's probably going to be awesome; if he's buried there's plenty of time that this doesn't matter.
Getting late: Bars, Fox, Samuelson. With Bars at least we've heard past mentions of him competing, though he was always kind of the last guy in that 2012 class. He may be on the Huyge track; if he's not on the two-deep this (his redshirt junior) year it doesn't seem very likely he'll be a starter in 2016. Fox has been hurt so much in his career (just going off of game reports) if he's not medicaled he probably deserves some extra time to get caught up. Samuelson I've heard nothing about; even when I ask people with insider-y info I get nothing.
Previously: Last year's profiles.
|Dayton, OH – 6'0", 205|
|Scout||4*, #150 overall
|Rivals||4*, #225 overall
#15 S, #10 OH
|ESPN||4*, #196 overall
#12 S, #7 OH
|24/7||4*, NR overall
#16 S, #13 OH
|Other Suitors||ND, MSU, Ark, Bama|
|Previously On MGoBlog||Hello post from Ace. Brandon Brown interviews him.|
The world was a very different place when Tyree Kinnel committed to Michigan. It was August of 2013. Michigan was coming off a bumpy year induced by Denard Robinson's ulnar nerve turning traitor, but before that they were contending for the Big Ten title a year after Brady Hoke entered on wings of fire, winning the Sugar Bowl. Innocent Michigan fans frolicked in local meadows, unaware of the nuclear fires just over the horizon.
In the cratered aftermath Kinnel pokes his head out of his foxhole and cries out for his classmates. "Crawford! Campbell! Harris! Anybody? Anybody?" Alex Malzone pops up, helmet in bad shape but otherwise none the worse for wear. Otherwise… silence. Wither the commits of yesteryear, yea. We shall remember them as they were on recruiting sites, and get only slightly bitter when they do something good in college.
This is a long and largely unnecessary way of saying that Kinnel had a lot to think about after he decided on Michigan. After Shawn Crawford defected to the den of iniquity that is Notre Dame he tried to bring Kinnel along. He visited; he decided to stick out Michigan's coaching search instead. Kinnel really wanted to be at Michigan.
As a result there is a lot of chatter about where he might go and less actual scouting than you'd expect from a guy who committed before his junior year. And a lot of the scouting that exists is in the immediate aftermath of his commit—it's a bit dated. But we forge on.
In Kinnel, Michigan's locked down a potential replacement for Jabrill Peppers after he blasts off to the NFL. That's not to say he is Peppers. He is a safety-sized gentleman who is capable of covering people one on one, though. Rivals Ohio analyst Mark Givler:
"He's a strong kid, a good sized kid. I really like his versatility in the secondary because he's able to cover like a corner, but he also plays the game like a free safety. He'll bring some versatility back there, and he'll move around wherever the coaching staff will need him to move." …
"I think he's ultimately probably a free safety, but again, he's been put in a lot of man to man coverage situations at these camps and performed very well. He could have easily been a corner the way he performed at these camps. His build and strength to run sideline to sideline, though, makes him a great free safety prospect."
“Kinnel is just a great athlete. I would put him up there with guys like Cam Burrows and others like that from years past. He’s half safety and half corner. He has great coverage skills. He has good size. He is a fit kid.”
Rivals' Josh Helmholdt:
"He has the body, size and physical measurable of a safety, but he covers like a cornerback, I am very high on him as a prospect. He is certainly very talented, and physically, he brings everything to the table that you want from that position."
You get the idea.
If Michigan sticks with the perma-nickel defense they appear to be running with Peppers that would make him a strong candidate for that slot. If he does end up at free safety, that's fine too—the back half of his high school career was spent there (and running back and punt returner).
Some other scouting highlights:
- Clint Brewster, 247: "always around the ball …able to track the ball down on deep passes and make the INT or pass breakup. He does an excellent job of fighting for the ball and out-competing the receiver. … excellent quickness and a great burst to get to the ball-carrier. … elite agility and quickness. … could make the switch to cornerback at the next level if need be"
- Dave Berk, Scout: "Brute strength is above average … biggest question we’ll have going into his college career is the smoothness of his hips flipping out of his backpedal … no problem covering a lot of ground and does a great job in the deep half of the field showing above average instincts. His ability to cover an area and be in position to make plays is extremely high for such a young player."
- Tim Sullivan, Rivals: "Physically, Kinnel is everything that a college coach wants in a safety. He showed off his speed on kick returns and in closing on plays to be made. He's never going to be the fastest player, but he has enough speed to make an impact at either the strong or free position. He's a hair over 6-1, and every bit of his listed 190 pounds with even more room for growth. He showed off his strength in making forceful tackles (especially the disrupted screen play) without getting full leverage behind his body."
- Adam Gorney, Rivals: "Multiple times on out routes, Kinnel came up and stepped in front of the pass. He showed off great instincts and a great ability to read receivers' routes and then come up to make the play. Kinnel's backpedal is smooth and then he turns and runs well with receivers."
- Allen Trieu, Scout: “High football IQ who may not have the straight line speed some desire. Great body control and instincts with the ability to provide strong run support. Tough hard-nosed player who has no problem putting a hit on an offensive player. Great hands … Must continue work on coverage skills.”
What separates Kinnel from the all-world hype of Peppers is the usual: speed and size. Kinnel isn't a slouch in either department, but neither is there a unanimous chorus of "wow" at his raw athletic tools. Nobody ever said Jabrill Peppers was "a bit more athletic than many believe him to be," as Tim Sullivan did($) after an in-person evaluation.
It's hard to tell whether how real size concerns are since so many evaluations come from old film, but after watching Kinnel's junior tape 247's Clint Brewster said he was probably "closer to 5'10, 180" and "more quick than fast." He ran a 4.5($) at OSU's camp as a rising junior, which sounds excellent until you remember that OSU's camp is where all the kids get their 4.2 40s. He's still pretty big and quite fast. In that same eval, Sullivan noted that he has "plenty of speed to get things done." He's just not Peppers.
He is a high football IQ guy who really really wanted to be at Michigan…
Wednesday morning Tyree Kinnel expressed the dream he shared with his father to play at Michigan. During his speech to those in attendance at the school’s gymnasium, Kinnel thanked his friends, coaches, teachers, family and parents. After catching his breath and soaking up the moment, Kinnel looked back at his parents a second time and told them. “The Dream Came True!”
…and was calling audibles as a junior in high school. His high school DB coach:
"He has the size and speed, but he has something that you can't teach a lot of players: he has the instincts to see things before or as they are happening. This gives him the ability to make reads quicker and make plays. He knows how to disguise coverages and he knows how to read opposing offenses. As his position coach, I've given Tyree the permission to call audibles on our coverage."
Everyone's got bust potential; Kinnel's seems very low.
Why non-superman Jabrill Peppers? Kinnel offers a combination of safety instincts and man-to-man cover skills that should make him a hybrid space player like Peppers figures to be this year. As spread offenses respond to the intense quarters coverage that had MSU's D at the top of the world two years, the importance of covering the slot as he bombs deep is a priority, and Kinnel is a guy who offers that ability.
I usually try to grab someone in the same talent stratosphere—or that we've, you know, seen play—but Michigan has not deployed anyone of Kinnel's ilk in my memory.
Guru Reliability: High. Kinnel was healthy, playing the position he projects to, and hit a reasonable number of camps.
Variance: Low. Not much mystery here.
Ceiling: High-minus. Consensus four star who is a very solid athlete playing a spot he projects to well.
General Excitement Level: High. Note that there are levels above "high" in this arbitrary ranking system. Kinnel should be a contributor and a starter, probably a good one.
Projection: You'd think he's in line for a redshirt since Michigan has a veteran two-deep (Wilson, Hill, Clark, Thomas) in front of him at safety even if you don't slot Peppers in there. We don't know Harbaugh's inclinations in this department yet, though. One thing that might help: safety types are often drafted for special teams, but Jon Baxter likes to use a lot of starters there. That should reduce demand for pointless redshirt wastes.
Anyway, after a freshman year spent either getting no or very few snaps he will have on opportunity to compete for a starting job in year two after Jarrod Wilson graduates; more likely he has another year of sparse snaps. If Peppers hits the NFL in two years, that will be his first prime opportunity.