1 hour and 55 minutes

We’re going to be launching some new podcasts this offseason based on the interests of our staffers. This one is hosted by Ace Anbender and Alex Cook and will cover the NBA. If you’d like to be its exclusive sponsor, hit me up!

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1st Quarter: The East

starts at 1:00

MATCHUPS: Raptors-Wizards, Celtics-Bucks, Sixers-Heat, Cavs-Pacers

Not great Cavs—LeBron’s having a good season but not his teammates (not even counting Kardashian-related things). He’s got to drag this team on his own now—next best player is Love. Lakers trade worked out for nobody. Raptors are a great regular season team with the best bench in the league, but Kyle Lowry vs playoff defense aint the same thing. Fred VanVleet most inexplicably good player in the NBA. Boston is 2nd seed but bleeding. Philadelphia: trust the process, don’t trust Embiid’s broken face, Ben Simmons is going to be great after the most SEC college career ever, the Fultz story is pretty crazy. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most interesting players we’ve ever seen, Bucks defense has the Illinois problem. Heat are the island of misfit toys.

2nd Quarter: The West

starts at 39:43

MATCHUPS: Rockets-Wolves, Warriors-Spurs, Blazers-Pelicans, Thunder-Jazz

Houston has built an excellent team. Fan favorite by default because Golden State is penciled in for the next 26 championships—they took the foot off the gas this year. Blaze are interesting but unless Lillard and McCollum go off they’re not deep enough to go deep. Drafting Kennard before Donavan Mitchell is gobbluthhugemistake.gif. Weirdly non Spur-like San Antonio team. Bryn Forbes has had a better NBA career than Denzel Valentine. Too bad what happened to Boogie even though it makes the Pelicans a more open team. Timberwolves are the West’s Sixers. Predictions.

3rd Quarter: Wolverines in the NBA

starts at 1:21:02

Jamal Crawford (Timberwolves) still in the league despite being Seth’s age. Epke Udoh (Jazz), Turkish Legend, is back in the NBA and playing significant minutes for a playoff team now that the league has caught up to his rim and out game. Tim Hardaway Jr. (Knicks) deal might actually be worth it except he’s having a THJ sophomore year from beyond the arc. The late shots these days are going to Trey Burke (also Knicks), who used his time in the G league to become a guy who puts up 42, a lot of that by exploiting the fact that the NBA doesn’t guard the midrange jumper anymore. Really efficient with Beasley now. GRIII (Pacers) was hurt most of this year, won NBA dunk competition last year, Indiana getting him up to speed for the playoffs. DJ Wilson (Bucks) played in the G League this year. Derrick Walton (Heat) signed a two-way contract, so spends time between Miami and Sioux Falls, [Seth has to Google this], SD, can carve out a role as a backup PG, good numbers in Sioux Falls. Expect Moe Wagner to be in this segment next year, and Poole sooner, and this year’s class will be all over the NBA eventually.

4th Quarter: The Pistons Segment

starts at 1:42:20

Most depressing franchise to follow right now. Trying to talk yourself into “if Reggie, Blake and Andre are all healthy at the same time,” gets you into a second round series before one gets hurt again. At best this core can get a Grizzlies 50-win era. Ticket prices are so ridiculous for a taxpayer-funded arena that it’s no surprise the new building is empty. SVG is a good coach, not a good GM. So…free agent fandom? Knicks have the players we want to root for but 1) the owner and 2) Knicks/Yankees fans. Caris Levert (Nets) is coming off the bench for 26 minutes a game and has a role as an either wing for a long NBA career. Stauskas bouncing around after the deep misfortune of being drafted by Sacramento when they still had Boogie (DeMarcus Cousins), then went to the Sixers, then Nets, but he was thrown in and they didn’t really want him.

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MUSIC

• “Still Hanging On (Faithful Man)”—Lee Fields & The Expressions
• “Love & Hate”—Michael Kiwanuka
• “This Much I Care”—Skaters
• “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

• Helpful iTunes subscribe link
• General podcast feed link
• Direct download link
• What's with the theme music?

Shout-out to JR for knowing exactly how to celebrate a title: shirtless with a bottle of Henny.

An irregular series about next year's basketball team. Previously: Point guard.

bench mob no more [JD Scott]

ROSTER

Jordan Poole (So): [cartoonish SUPER VILLAIN] Oh no! An OVERDOSE of SWAG. [/dies]

(108 ORTG on high-ish usage, 52/36 shooting, 82% from line, needs work on defense, breakout candidate)

Adrien Nunez (Fr): Just a shooter?

Ibi Watson (Jr): played about 3 MPG, shot 46/32, other numbers useless due to sample size.

Mystery Man (???): He's either pirated from other spots on the roster or a mid-major who thought they really had something.

I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS

Didn't Ace already write this post?

Sort of! Kind of! Mostly, yeah.

Questions one through five at this spot are "what happens to Jordan Poole?!," and Ace just posted one of those one-Q mailbags about Poole and his recent Michigan comparables:

I've used Bart Torvik's invaluable site to pull the statistics of Poole and his comparables against top-50 (venue-adjusted) competition. When you ignore minutes and usage for a moment—two factors with clear explanations I'll get to momentarily—there's a clear match for Poole: Stauskas.

Trey Burke, mostly thrown in as an extra data point, had far different usage as a pure point guard. The rest are wings and therefore more comparable. The numbers that give me optimism regarding Poole are his two-pointers—taken with relative frequency, finished with efficiency—and his combination of high usage, extant assist rate, and low turnover rate.

Stylistically, Poole is absolutely more Stauskas than any other Beilein-era SG/SF. Both are archetypically Not Just A Shooter. The freshman versions of both attacked closeouts relatively well, hit free throws, sniped from the outside, rarely turned it over, and had a healthy-for-a-freshman-NJAS assist rate. Their FT rates are nearly identical; their 3PA/FGA rates are nearly identical.

There's obviously a big gap in minutes, but roster composition explains all of that. The only vaguely guard-shaped objects on the bench in 2012-13 roster were fellow freshmen Spike Albrecht (short) and Caris Levert (willowy). Poole was on the same roster as the senior version of Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Charles Matthews, The Kentucky Transfer.

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

If we overlook minutes, the main differences between the two are efficiency and usage. Stauskas hit 44% of his threes as a freshman versus Poole's 36%. Stauskas was a fourth banana with 17% usage; Poole got more shots up per 40 than anyone on the team not named Moritz Wagner. Stauskas was surrounded by Trey Burke, Naismith Edition, and a junior Tim Hardaway Jr. Poole was surrounded by Zavier Simpson and Charles Matthews—good players but nowhere near that level.

This is part problem and part promise. Problem: Poole was a walking heat check as a freshman, which depressed his efficiency and upped his usage. Hopefully he'll play a little bit more within himself once he's on the floor for most of the game. Promise: Michigan needs someone to create shots. They need someone with some lip curl on offense. They need a guy who unbalances defenses. Poole can be that guy.

Ace suggests that a Stauskas leap is optimistic but achievable…

The Stauskas leap remains spectacular. He significantly upped his usage, improved his efficiency while taking on a much greater role as a distributor, and even improved significantly as a three-point shooter despite taking way more of his shots off the bounce.

I still think Poole can do something quite similar. He may not have played the early minutes Stauskas did, but he played a lot of important minutes and took on a bigger role when he saw the floor. Meanwhile, a lot of what he did on the court looked downright Stauskas-esque. Both are known for their unabashed three-point gunning, but what really separates the two is their ability to score from all three levels (rim, midrange, three).

…and yeah, it is. Ace didn't mention the other really encouraging thing about Poole: his age. He won't turn 19 for a couple more months, which makes him more Caris Levert (who turned 19 the August after his freshman year) than Stauskas (who turned 19 a month into his). Levert made an even bigger jump than Stauskas in year two, going from the overwhelmed guy in the table above to a 112 ORTG, 21% usage guy playing 34 MPG.

Poole will blow up. The question is "how much?"

[After THE JUMP: D though? Backups though?]

Wait wait I have a Spongebob meme for this? Man, Colin Castleton released a senior highlight reel and after the third Nowitzki pogo-stick jumper I was all

Did I do that right, fellow kids?

Anyway, here's a guy doing things once you get past the usual open-court dunks:

Castleton displays several different skills that should translate to higher levels, most obviously the shooting and Wagner-like ability to drive to the basket. He might even be better at changing directions? Wagner had a straight line drive and a behind-the-back move that was clunky but effective because of the surprise factor. Castleton looks more fluid. Toss in that EYBL block rate a tick higher than Bol Bol and… uh, yeah.

Caveat from certified insane person Colin From Twitter, who watched a full game:

the game was interesting. he's was clearly figuring out how to play with a constant motor and how to position himself consistently on O and D to be productive. but he turned it on in the last 5 and won the game by himself.

— Manuel Excel (@colintj) April 11, 2018

There are reasons that Castleton isn't ranked where Bol Bol is.

Still, Castleton suddenly seems like this class's most crucial recruit. Seriously: since Michigan doesn't have access to five-star posts, maintaining the five out offense is their best way to compete with teams that do. Castleton promises to do that while adding a ton of rim protection (relative to Wagner, at least). He'll need a year or two of Camp Sanderson before hitting his potential. When he beefs up, look out.

Someone print this out and engrave it on every basketball croot's head until the end of time. Jonathan Tjarks on the weird predicament one-and-dones who disappoint slightly at NBA draft factories:

Trevon Duval declared for the NBA draft last week, but the Duke freshman’s decision was made for him back in January. That’s when Coach K completed a recruiting hat trick by signing Zion Williamson to what was already the top recruiting class in the country, which featured the potential top two picks in next year’s draft (R.J. Barrettand Cameron Reddish) as well as the best pure point guard (Tre Jones, the younger brother of former Duke standout Tyus Jones) in the class. Neither Duval or Gary Trent Jr., his backcourt partner, were able to build up their draft stock at Duke, but both have decided not to give it a second try. They are essentially being pushed out the door by a program that no longer needs them. …

Playing at Duke was a worst-case scenario for Duval’s draft stock. He couldn’t do the things he did well, while his weaknesses were on full display. That’s how he went from a potential lottery pick before the start of the season to no. 50 overall on ESPN’s Top 100 prospects list. Freshmen in that range typically go back to school to work on their games. Most NCAA coaches would love to have a sophomore like Duval running their team and would have tried to sell him on returning by structuring their offense to emphasize his strengths. The situation is different at Duke.

Duval at least got to play and score some and will probably go in the second round. Charles Matthews evaporated off draft boards and had to take a redshirt year at Michigan, a place that actually cared to develop him. It's a big risk to go into a situation like Duke or UK where you get recruited over annually, and that's biting guys on the regular.

Contrast Matthews's situation at UK with what's going on with him at Michigan:

"I just kind of saw what they did with people in my position. I just wanted to come here and learn, get a fresh start," Matthews told ESPN. "I feel like my knowledge has grown a lot more. More open to learning and understanding the game. Really just getting a better grasp of that."

Matthews quickly emerged as one of Michigan's most integral pieces early on this year. He's playing a much different role, with 21 percent of his total offense coming as the pick-and-roll ball handler. He regularly initiates offense in both the half-court and transition. Thanks to his improved ball skills and ability to see over the top of the defense, Matthews' pick-and-roll passes generate 1.25 points per possession for Michigan, which ranks in the 90th percentile in all of college basketball.

"I was always more comfortable with the ball," Matthews said. "I'm happy I've been able to play in two different systems. Play pick-and-roll, play off the ball. I feel like with my increasing handle I'll be able to play with the ball even more."

It's Matthews' steady improvement as a shooter that really has unlocked the rest of his game. Although he is not a natural scorer and he still needs to up his efficiency, Matthews is far more comfortable both with his feet set and off the dribble than he was in the past. He's capable of rising up off the bounce in midrange spots or stepping into spot-up 3s when given time and space -- 56th percentile in unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers -- which bodes well for his NBA outlook if he can continue to progress.

That would never happen at Kentucky. Calipari does a good job of getting his various insane athletes to shed AAU ball and play defense as a unit, but it seems like he hardly has time for anything else and ends up running fairly rudimentary offense for guys who don't tend to improve in the rare case that they come back for a second year. I'm thinking of the conscience-free iso offense the Harrison twins ran against Michigan in the Elite Eight.

I'm not a "when do we see the recruiting benefits?!?!" person—the 2018 class is already enough to make Michigan a top five team for a couple years—but it would be nice if Beilein's development caught the eye of one or two five star types a year and convinced them to pass over the bag for a better chance at a long NBA career. It still baffles that Tyus Battle signed up to run desperate isos at set defenses while spending much of his time practicing a defense the NBA outlaws.

The Mooney thing. News that Michigan is involved with a grad transfer is fairly surprising, but here it is:

Among the head coaches [South Dakota G Matt] Mooney, a 6-foot-3, 210-pound shooting guard, met with were Bobby Hurley, Greg McDermott, Archie Miller, Chris Beard and Dana Altman. He also met with assistants from Iowa State and TCU, plus FaceTime’d with Chris Collins.

“I took a bunch of notes from every meeting,” Mooney said. “I’m going to rank them. I have list of my priorities what I’m looking for and then rank out which school is best.”

But the meetings aren’t done. Fresh off playing in the National Championship game, John Beilein will “tentatively” meet with Mooney next Tuesday.

“I think I’m going to give Michigan a serious look,” Mooney said.

Michigan's scholarship count currently stands at –1; even if Moritz Wagner declares for the draft there isn't a spot unless someone transfers. Michigan will know about the first bit of that by April 22nd at the latest since Wagner's already used up his Get Out Of NBA Draft Declaration Free card. I would in fact assume that Michigan's involvement with Mooney means that non-Wagner attrition is likely. With Eli Brooks and Austin Davis both coming off freshman* years at spots where age is very helpful the obvious candidate is Ibi Watson.

FWIW, Mooney is coming off a 30% usage year in the Summit where he shot 50/36 and hit 83% from the line. A top 50 steal rate also perks the ears up. That's on another level from Jaaron Simmons, who had less usage and an ORTG ten points lower in the MAC a year ago. Mooney also wouldn't be trying to play point guard.

Even if Michigan has the room it seems unlikely that Michigan can offer Mooney anything other than backup SG minutes. Some other team out there is almost certain to have a more attractive depth chart. OSU is involved, and they can say they played Andrew Dakich for 20 minutes a game last year. OTOH, Evan Daniels said Mooney seemed "VERY intrigued," his caps, in a comment about that article on 247.

*[Redshirt freshman in Davis's case, but he's a developmental big who didn't look out of place during his brief time on the floor.]

Also on Davis. Those transfer rumbles were always silly and now he's explicitly debunked them:

Davis vowed to continue working hard and get ready for next season. Michigan will be coming off a 33-8 season and will be a Big Ten contender once again.

“I’ll be here,” Davis said. “I committed to Michigan, and I’m not going anywhere. This season just showed me what I need to do differently.”

Don't give up on bigs. They're big people, people. It takes time. 

Got 99 problems and a meniscus in fact happens to be one of them. Ben Mason out for a month or so:

ANN ARBOR -- The Michigan football team will be without Ben Mason for the remainder of spring.

Mason, who will be a sophomore this season, plans to have surgery to repair a torn meniscus he suffered in practice, head coach Jim Harbaugh revealed this week on his "Attack Each Day" podcast.

"He was cracking skulls, doing Ben Mason stuff," Harbaugh said. "As spring ball was going, he complained a little bit about his knee. His knee just didn't feel right."

Shouldn't have any impact on the season… and now it doesn't even have an impact on the Spring Game. RIP, spring game.

Etc.: One last look back at the tourney run. Josh Rosen on nuking mars. Kansas and NC State get added to the FBI probe. Good overview of B10 basketball next year from InsideNU, though it doesn't take Ryan Taylor's transfer to the Wildcats into account. Pac-12 network not so hot.

Ignas Brazdeikis measures in at 6'7", 223 at the Hoop Summit. He will not be shy. Mo Hurst back in the first round.

[Eric Upchurch]

via the Athletic Department the Spring Game is canceled and won’t be rescheduled.

Michigan Cancels Spring Game Due to Weather Concerns

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The University of Michigan Athletic Department has decided to cancel the 2018 Spring Football Game presented by PNC Bank due to weather patterns that project a high percentage chance for rain and thunderstorms on Saturday.

“We want to ensure the safety of our fans as well as the student-athletes and staff,” said Warde Manuel, Michigan’s Donald R. Shepherd Director of Athletics. “We also wanted to provide as much notice in advance for fans and the families of our players that were considering attending.”

The game will not be rescheduled due to the limited number of spring practices remaining for the Wolverines and the start of finals next week at the University.

“We are disappointed for our fans and players' families that this opportunity to see our team compete at Michigan Stadium will not be possible due to weather concerns,” said Jim Harbaugh, the J. Ira and Nicki Harris Family Head Football Coach. “We made a decision that was in the best interest of our fans, student-athletes and volunteer staff needed to organize this event.”

So that sucks. At least it wasn’t going to be a game? Earlier this week the football team let it be known the format would be more situational practice than competition. Still quite a bummer for the fans and all of us trying to get a glimpse of the team.

you can’t throw a rock at Schembechler Hall without hitting someone talking up Bush and Dwumfour [Patrick Barron]

We got a lot of good stuff from over the weekend so let’s do another one of these. Depending on what’s leaking the rest of the week I may or may not get another out before the spring game, so I’ll try to make this one pretty comprehensive.

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Quarterback

Do you know what people say you are? [Bryan Fuller]

What we want to hear: Hosanna, hey-sanna, sanna sanna ho, sanna hey, sanna ho, sanna!

What we’re hearing: Multiple practice observers believe Patterson is well ahead of the other two, and the gap between him and Peters/McCaffrey is about equal to the gap between those two right now and where they were last year.

First the scouting. Harbaugh on his podcast said Shea Patterson has the best release and that he really shines when going off-script. Insiders are spitting out super-foobally platitudes: He’s “a leader.” He “makes plays.” That jives with his seat-of-the-pants film at Ole Miss and the general “Tate Forcier Except Goes to Class” impression we got from that. The insiders are way more bullish. The “he’s a leader” thing got emphasized by all three of my “SOURCES”, with one saying he’s probably the best offensive juice guy Michigan’s had since Harbaugh got here.

Brandon Peters throws the best ball, which is again something we knew. The biggest mover is Dylan McCaffrey, last year’s scout team player of the year, who benefited the most from Herbert in the offseason, and who gets rave reviews about his pocket command.

As for eligibility, Brian discussed it depth earlier this afternoon. The short version is it’s no surprise that Ole Miss opposed these waivers because the only way to avoid significant sanctions is casting Ohio State* and beating the NCAA’s wisdom throw.

*

What it means: The first episode of the Amazon thing was a good reminder that nobody outside of the quarterback room knows the real status of the quarterback battle, so this is guesswork based on lay observations. But nothing can be done to stop the shouting; if every tongue were stilled the noise would still continue—the rocks and stone themselves would start to sing. Unless the NCAA (and again, we’re talking about the NCAA, not some group of responsible, potty-trained adults) buys Ole Miss’s innocence act, Patterson is your presumptive starter. For now.

There’s another clue that this is where the coaches are leaning: one of the points insiders made about is Pep is putting more emphasis on scramble drills. We all noticed last year how, with the notable exception of Grant Perry, Michigan’s receivers would end up standing around after running their routes instead of working back to the QB. If there’s a greater emphasis for the QBs on checking down and improvisation, and a greater emphasis for the WRs on providing those outlets, that kinda sounds like they’re shaping the offense to Shea’s strengths.

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[After THE JUMP: My two offensive lines theory, did you hear about Dwumfour?]

i don't even own a gun, Ole Miss, let alone the many guns it would take to necessitate an entire rack. what am i gonna do with a gun rack? [Bryan Fuller]

The various single elimination tournaments are over. The spring game is this weekend. And Shea Patterson remains in eligibility limbo a month and a half after Michigan's case for his immediate availability went to the NCAA. Every so often someone asks me if this is a bad sign.

It's not. The delay is entirely because Ole Miss is doing everything they can to continue screwing the 2016 recruits they lied to just before the relevant Signing Day. Michigan gave Ole Miss the whole package before they even sent it to the NCAA; Ole Miss, like the Michigan FOIA department, took every last nanosecond available before filing a reply. Their reply then required a reply:

Michigan’s petition to the NCAA on Patterson’s behalf was sent to Ole Miss, according to standard practice. Ole Miss had the option to not respond but chose to file its objection to the NCAA on March 28. Patterson has since supplied answers to questions the NCAA asked regarding issues Ole Miss raised.

And so we're here, waiting for Shea Patterson and summer. When Shea Patterson is eligible it will stop snowing.

But none of this should impact what looks like a slam dunk. Ole Miss's problem—one of Ole Miss's many problems—is that they didn't just lie to their recruits. They lied to anyone who would listen, planting a series of credulous stories from friendly local reporters. This move backfired spectacularly when Houston Nutt sued Ole Miss, winning a settlement and a public apology for lying about their NCAA troubles. This is literally a thing Ole Miss said in public because of a lawsuit:

“Certain statements made by University employees in January 2016 appear to have contributed to misleading media reports about Coach Nutt,” Ole Miss said in a statement without a specific name attached. “To the extent any such statements harmed Coach Nutt’s reputation, the University apologizes, as this was not the intent.”

In addition to this, Michigan submitted reams of communication between Shea Patterson and various other Ole Miss athletic department employees; five other 2016 recruits seeking immediate eligibility are telling parallel stories to the NCAA.

Ole Miss's NCAA case is over. The NCAA itself has declared that Ole Miss was lying. Hugh Freeze is fired, in part because of Ole Miss's institutional decision to lie about that case. Ole Miss can gain nothing by denying the obvious, and after discovery in the Nutt case it is very, very obvious:

In Mars’ work as counsel for Nutt and, later, the transfers, he revealed Freeze’s misinformation campaign was initiated when Ole Miss received a notice of allegations from the NCAA two years ago. Mars uncovered through text messages, phone logs and interviews, how Freeze and the athletic department launched a plan to mislead media and football recruits — including Patterson — telling them the bulk of the violations involved women’s basketball and track and that Nutt was responsible for issues regarding the football program.

This has been to NCAA court. It has been to real court. Ole Miss has gotten a pie in the face both times. Even the wildly unpredictable NCAA shouldn't be able to screw this up.

The length of time here is more about the unprecedented amount of information that's been submitted here, the likelihood that the NCAA is regarding these six appeals as one larger decision, and Ole Miss's final middle finger to college football before once again descending into irrelevance. If Patterson doesn't get a waiver nobody can ever get a waiver.