"Rodrick Williams Jr.'s 10-month old, 2-foot-long savannah monitor named "Kill" gets the RB some strange looks when they go for walks together."
Men wearing hats. And bandanas.
LS&A magazine collects Bentley photos of old-timey Michigan games to the present-day to examine what people wore to the things. This is from 1936; I think I recognize the guy in the glasses in the front row.
Don't look at the Ark, dude.
Things didn't really fall off a cliff until the 80s.
Probably DFW on the left there. Probably.
All the Kwiatkowski features. The AD must have offered people free nachos for articles about senior walk-on TE and MGoFave-Rave Mike Kwiatkowski, because you can't throw a rock this week without dinging one on the head. The Daily version:
It’s fine to recognize how unlikely it is that Kwiatkowski rose from regular student to scholarship starter in a matter of three years — but don’t call him a walk-on.
“I actually despise that label,” Kwiatkowski said. “Because like you said, there’s been a number of (walk-ons) who have played, and just because you weren’t given a scholarship doesn’t mean you aren’t as capable. Obviously there’s some exceptions to that, of people who walk on and don’t end up playing.
“I guess that’s the rule, if anything.”
Er. Senior Brain, Behavior, and Cognitive Science major Mike Kwiatkowski. MLive also features Kwiatkowski.
If Denard Robinson can't go, Hoke will consider single, symbolic play
That would be something I would think about, but to be honest with you," Hoke said. "The seniors and the guys and the people who are truly Michigan fans, I think they understand the significance he's had."
He was asked about using Robinson in another role Saturday. The injury has caused numbness in his right hand and made it difficult to grip the football.
"Oh, I don't know," Hoke said on 97.1. "The health of him and all those things are what we're concerned about."
At this point I'm not expecting him against Iowa, except in that ceremonial role. If it's two weeks on from the Nebraska game and he's still throwing ducks in warmups, as he was before the Northwestern game, it doesn't seem likely he'll get better before the bowl game, if then. John Niyo:
…chances are, we've seen the last of Robinson as Michigan's starting quarterback. The ulnar nerve injury that has sidelined him since the first half of an Oct. 27 loss at Nebraska takes weeks to heal, if not months, or surgery. And coach Brady Hoke's cat-and-mouse games with the media notwithstanding, that reality — along with Robinson's NFL prospects — figures to leave the senior stuck in this new dual-threat role: as an extra coach and cheerleader on the sideline while Devin Gardner succeeds him under center.
At least Gardner is doing well, the considerable silver lining in pretty much the worst way for Denard to go out.
Halfway to a final verdict thing. The MZone's Season Tickets vs Stubhub feature concludes with resounding victory for the scalper, especially for primo seats which could be had at a 40% markdown on the secondary market. This is the easy year, though: a home schedule featuring Nebraska/ND/Ohio State is not likely to end up with the scalper in the black. How close will a two-year total be? Tune in next year to find out.
I'm guessing it'll be pretty close to break-even overall, but once you take the ND game out of the equation… well, Arkansas probably isn't going to cut it.
One of the greatest times I had after I came back was when we watched Michigan football together in the press box. One day up there I found out how much he truly loved this university. He said, “Hey Mo, come here. I wanna show you something.” The band was already out on the field and the players were coming out of the tunnel, and they’re playing The Victors and all that stuff. Bo said, “Now there—isn’t that the most beautiful thing you’ve ever seen in your life? Look at the fans, look at band and look at this team coming out here. That’s what Michigan is all about.” It was as though he was just painting a portrait that was in his mind of something that he was so proud of.
"One of the greatest times I had after I came back was when we watched Michigan football together in the press box. He said, 'hey, come here' and told me to listen to this generic Nickelback ripoff cheese by a band named Porpville or something. Bo said 'Now there—isn't that the most beautiful thing you've ever seen in your life?' Then Zombie Nation came on, and we wept in each others' arms."
-conversation that did not happen
Iowa: not good. Win percentage chart from the Purdue game showing how Iowa stayed in the game:
It may not be much of a comfort to anyone, but Iowa was actually very fortunate to lose to Purdue on a last-second field goal. Or to put it another way, Iowa was lucky to be in the game at all. If Purdue could have just gotten out of its own way on a couple of occasions, they would have won by two touchdowns or more. Every time it looked like the Boilermakers were going to go ahead decisively, they managed to make an egregious blunder -- a fumble, a penalty, a missed field goal -- that kept Iowa inexplicably and unjustly still in the game. If we look at the win probability chart for the game, we can see exactly where these moments occurred (WP here refers to Iowa's chances of winning):
That's how you lose by a field goal despite getting outgained almost 2 to 1.
Tie that running back to the train tracks. Northwestern defensive lineman Sean McEvilly: we need to have a talk.
Sir. You are named Sean McEvilly. You do not pronounce this like you are Scottish adverbial evil, nor do you have a luxuriously nefarious mustache. In fact you look about as evil as a schnauzer.
Also, what is the deal with this?
Good attitude on the practice field.
This should read "conspires to tie pretty debutantes to Venric Mark." At least you are majoring in economics.
I'm sure you feel, like I do, that this is a missed opportunity. Look at Jake Ryan: he grows his hair out and becomes Clay Mathews. To ensure a ticket to the NFL, you need one of these:
Please acquire one posthaste and accept the internet glory that surely awaits.
This isn't Canisius anymore, Toto. Michigan can throw it up, and someone can catch it and rain thunder down. This is… intriguing for John Beilein:
The alley-oop: the most exciting play in basketball.
For the first time in his 35 years of coaching, Beilein now incorporates the alley-oops into his practices.
“I realize it’s a really good play,” he noted Monday, pausing before he finished, “if you have athletes.”
"…I have just discovered that men like Glenn Robinson III exist, and whoah."
Policework objection. BWS takes on the long Mark option discussed in the defensive UFR:
before the ball is even snapped, you can see a huge problem: Michigan is badly outnumbered to the boundary side of the field. From the offensive center toward the boundary, Michigan has only four defenders. Nebraska has four men on the line of scrimmage, Colter, and Mark. There's absolutely no way Michigan can defend this play toward the sideline.
It's tough, sure, but doable. I clipped this exact play a bit later and Michigan executed better. Beyer and Kovacs combined to impact Mark near the LOS; the pile fell forward for four.
Also note Ross's presence. The key is for that defensive end to stay on the LOS and widen out. Beyer at the pitch on the first one versus the second:
Beyer doesn't get as far upfield, is a step or two further outside, and is turned to chase on the pitch, which gets him to the back as Kovacs contains. Michigan's alignment there can get the job done, and if you don't slide to the field they'll have opportunities out there. That's what the spread does—requires you to make plays without the advantage of numbers. Michigan's trying to get that back by using the sideline as their 12th guy.
One of Michigan's main issues against the option in this one was the defensive ends giving themselves up one for one quickly. We saw them get a little better at that as the day went on; they'll have to rep it a lot next week in preparation for Ohio State.
Etc.: Northwestern analyzes its doom, needs bigger screenshots. Classic Ufer nicknames. Super Toe! The only Iranian I know who wears cowboy boots! For best results, play Indiana. Rich Rodriguez on Denard. Orange Bowl contract finalized, ND gets significantly less than everyone else if they participate. Senior salute from M&GB. Holdin' The Rope on Denard.
By farside286. Please tell me that's a processor speed reference and not your Mo-Jo room number c. 1998-'99 because if it's the latter I'm so so sorry!
When I came to Michigan they had recently started doing these really interesting seminar classes that only freshmen could take. There was one on the Simpsons, one all about spring break destinations, and one on King Arthur that filled up right away since it got around you get to watch Monty Python and the Holy Grail.* I ended up taking the Psychology of Business, basically an insight directly into the hive mind of management that would have been invaluable to a corporate career if it hadn't also completely turned me off from it.
Club_med, a statistician, mentioned a few of that class's signature readings on "flow" while showing that the team with momentum going into overtime does not have any advantage. He plans to see if other things like 4th downs or turnovers create swings. Hypothesis: if there's a difference at all it is probably a) buried in too small a data sample, and b) an effect of freeing coaches from their lizard brains to take appropriate risks. The ND-Pitt Hypothesis: success in overtime situations is directly correlated to which team is better at playing football.
*I appreciate a discussion on holy hand grenades as much as the next guy, but some of us honestly want to talk Alano-Sarmation Theory, and translate Nennius's list of battles into Welsh to see if it rhymes.
More Statistics Bias in This Week's Read These:
Run charts like running QBs. Please let's all welcome the nerdy and likeable LSAClassof2000 back to the diaries with a quick comparison of Michigan's rush/pass offense/defense over the last 10 years versus that of Iowa. Conclusion: having Denard Robinson or Brad Banks under center makes you good at running:
Whence the Tebowing? The guy who I think graduated from LSA in 2000 also decided to chart up the Denardian career. I don't like that the charts are all on a different Y scale so you can't really compare to each other until…
…arrrgghhhh 2012 Y R U no touchdowns!
Get yer head out of September. The Devin Gardening of the past few weeks has people thinking of 2013 things despite the 2012 things still being very much in play. Gordon put together a great list and discussion on the Big Ten's out-of-conference schedule for next year. Hurrah for the yellow and blue not starting against the Sabanic empire in Jerryworld and thus diminishing the excitement of the season right out of the gate. Somebody remind me to back-link this thing next August.
Hoops in Pittsburgh. I bumped ClearEyesFullHart's preview/obsessing over next week's basketball game at Pitt. And not just because I'm a sucker for Firefly references, even if I'm a hopeless sucker for Firefly references.
[JUMP for some epic weeklies and best of the board]
Formation notes: There apparently wasn't anything that I thought was notable in this department; I have no screenshots. Here's a FINAL/OT shot for no reason:
Oh look here's something. Look, I-Form Big. Lots of it in this game.
This was mostly a passing formation because obviously.
Substitution notes: Nothing of note. This bit always gets thin on offense late in the year because roles are established and substitutions are limited to the obvious ones people already know about.
Oh, right, Devin Gardner played quarterback.
[AFTER THE JUMP: hopefully something more interesting than the stuff above the jump /hardsell'd]
About Last Saturday:
A 10-point lead late in the third quarter - 31, Is not enough points when you are Northwestern - 38 (OT)
The best wide receiver in the B1G at right; My new favorite Northwestern player at left. (h/t @shane_heck)
The Road Ahead:
Iowa (4-6 overall, 2-4 B1G)
Last game: Purdue 27, Iowa 24 (L)
Recap: You know things are pretty bad when you play the second-worst team in the conference (which is incidentally the second-worst conference in the BCS) and then all of a sudden you’re the second-worst team in the conference.
What is going on, Iowa? What’s the deal? Why do you have only one running play? Why do you refuse to throw a pass farther than five yards past the line of scrimmage? Why does your offensive coordinator still have a job? (Why did you hire him in the first place?) Why does your defense give up 500 yards of offense to an offense run by a guy who doesn’t have an ACL? How do you fail to beat a team when you’re plus 3 in turnover margin and have just two penalties for 16 yards to their 10 for 100?
These are the tough, existential questions I hope will never be asked about Michigan. /knocks on wood.
At this point, it seems like Iowa isn’t even trying. Let’s look at their season to date:
- vs. Northern Illinois, 18-7 (W)
- vs. Iowa State, 6-9 (L)
- vs. Northern Iowa, 27-16 (W)
- vs. Central Michigan, 31-32 (L)
- vs. Minnesota, 31-13 (W)
- @ Michigan State, 19-16 OT (W)
- vs. Penn State, 14-38 (L)
- @ Northwestern, 17-28 (L)
- @ Indiana, 14-21 (L)
- vs. Purdue, 24-27 (L)
That’s a couple of so-so games against randos, a couple of embarrassing close losses to Steele Jantz and Central Michigan, a close win against Michigan State that no one can really figure out, and then a bunch of games where they’ve gotten their asses handed to them, which have been disguised by final scores that belie reality.
Something isn’t working when Minnesota is the only convincing win of the season.
Okay, fine, there have been extenuating circumstances. The offensive line turned into a mess after the Penn State game when two linemen went out with injury, and then there’s AIRBHG, too, who wouldn’t even spare a fullback from his wrath. That shouldn’t be the end of the world, though. The Hawkeyes have a senior quarterback (best B1G pocket passer!), an All-conference caliber tight end, a bunch of fairly competent receivers, and a defense that … well, plays defense. Surely they could have mustered a better showing against Indiana.
Even more concerning: how will this team be any better next year?
After the game, head coach Kirk Ferentz passionately defended his “dog crap” team. A few days later he dropped an F bomb. I’m half tempted to grab some popcorn to see what happens over the next two weeks -- Iowa plays Michigan and Nebraska. This promises to be more entertaining than an MGoBoard flamewar.
And I say “half” tempted only because, on the other hand, I don't want to support Nebraska’s economy. Not for another year, anyway.
/refuses to eat any food that contains corn.
/starves to death.*
This besmacks of: Societal failure.
Michigan should worry about: Not beating up on Iowa too badly. Michigan needs them to be as intact as possible when they play Nebraska next week since they could be Michigan’s last hope to hand Nebraska another loss. Although right now I like Minnesota's chances better.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: This has to be the easiest week of film study. Like ever.
When they play Michigan: It's Senior Day.
Also, bring tissues. It's going to get dusty.
Next game: No. 21 Michigan
*Joke stolen from Ace.
On the heals of another dramatic wins, I dug deep to try and quantify the most dire of Michigan situations that turned into wins from the last ten years. Some are big comebacks, a few are last second heroics. The WPA model is perfect in very late game situations, but it isn’t terrible so here are the ten games from ten seasons that Michigan won based on their lowest WPA during the game for any offensive play.
10. 2004 vs Minnesota, 21% chance of winning
Trailing by 4 with 3 minutes left at their own 13 yard line, Chad Henne led an 87 yard drive to take the lead and the defense held for the win.
9. 2011 at Northwestern, 21% chance of winning
Michigan started the second half trailing by 10 and faced an early 3rd and 11 from their own 19 before Denard hit Roundtree for a first down and Michigan went on to score the next 28 points and win comfortably.
8. 2005 vs Penn St, 17% chance of winning
Michigan took over at their own 40 trailing Penn St 18-10 with under 12 minutes remaining. A 60 yard TD drive with two point conversion and a subsequent Garrett Rivas 47 yard field goal gave Michigan the lead but it came down to that final second when Henne hit Manningham for 10 yards and the winning points.
7. 2010 vs Illinois, 11% chance of winning
In what would become the epic 67-65 swan song victory for Rich Rodriguez, Michigan trailed by a touchdown with five minutes left and had backup Tate Forcier in for an injured Denard Robinson. Forcier led Michigan to a touchdown with 1:47 left and the defense miraculously held. The defense got a final stop on a two point conversion in the third overtime.
6. 2012 vs Northwestern, 9% chance of winning
The punt return from Jeremy Gallon pushed the odds from 5% to nearly 9% but 53 yards later Gibbons trotted onto the field for a chip shot field goal and Michigan pulled it out for the win.
5. 2007 at Michigan St, 8% chance of winning
After a Spartan touchdown, Michigan took over at their own 21 facing a 10 point deficit with seven and a half minutes to go. A Greg Mathews touchdown would cut the margin to 3 in less than a minute. Michigan would force a punt and have a chance to take the lead from their own 35 with four and half minutes left. On 3rd and 12 Chad Henne hit Mario Manningham for a 31 yard touchdown to provide the final margin.
4. 2008 vs Wisconsin, 6% chance of winning
A lone bright spot in a dismal year. The low point came in third quarter with Michigan trailing 19-0. Kevin Grady would convert a 4th and 1 and Steven Threet would eventually hit Kevin Koger for 26 yards to put Michigan on the board. The odds would go back down to 7% before Brandon Minor ran for a 34 yard score, to cut it to a one possession game and bring Michigan’s odds up to 23%. John Thompson’s 25 yard interception return would give Michigan the lead they would hold the rest of the game.
3. 2011 vs Notre Dame, 5% chance of winning
5% is probably high for this one. This is a situation where the late game situations cause the calculator a bit of trouble. No matter what the actual odds where the situation was highly dire and only a Jeremy Gallon invisibility cloak allowed Michigan to pull this one out.
2. 2003 at Minnesota, 2% chance of winning
Michigan entered the fourth quarter trailing Minnesota 28-7. Before scoring 31 fourth quarter points to pull out the win with Garrett Rivas hitting a 33 yard field goal with 47 seconds left to give Michigan its first lead of the game.
1. 2004 vs Michigan St, 1% chance of winning
Down 17 with 8 minutes left at your own 11 yard line. It’s Braylon Edwards time.
Bonus Overtime Chart
+42%-Gardner to Roundtree for 53 yards
+18%-Gardner to Roundtree for 17 yards in OT
+18%-Demens stonewalls Jones to end the game
+18%-Gardner to Funchess for an 8 yard TD
+11%-Gardner to Toussaint for a 28 yard TD
Interesting that none of the top 3 plays were touchdowns
-24%-Gardner intercepted by Dugar
-16%-Pat Fitzgerald come on down, your quarterback is the next contestant on questionable roughing the passer calls
-12%-Siemian to Fields for 21 yards on 1st and 20
-11%-Siemian to Dickerson right before half
-11%-Siemian to Jones to give Northwestern the lead 31-28
Michigan Rush Offense: +5 EV, +26% WPA
Michigan Pass Offense: +11, +64%
Michigan Rush Defense: –6, –9%
Michigan Pass Defense: –8, –44%
Special Teams: +10%
Devin Gardner: +22, +104%
Fitzgerald Toussaint: +1, +13%
Jeremy Gallon: +5, +10%
Roy Roundtree: +7, +65%
Kain Colter: +3, +22%
Trevor Siemian: +9, +41%
Venric Mark: +1, –1%
Dumb Punt of the Week
I really wanted to give this week’s award to our favorite big guy, Charlie Weis for his second half punt from the Texas Tech 38 while trailing but there was another big guy much more deserving. Terry Bowden and the Akron Zips trailed winless UMass by 8 in the fourth quarter and had a 4th and 6 at the UMass 33 yard line. Now a 4th and 6 is not an easy conversion. BUT YOU ARE AT THE 33 YARD LINE! And trailing by 1.5 possessions, in the fourth quarter. The Zips managed to pin UMass at their own 7, but still ended up losing by 8.
Terry Bowden is your Ron Zook Memorial Dumb Punter of the Week
Iowa is not good. Their offense has had one game with an EV+ above 2 (Minnesota) on the season. Their defense has been decent but their three worst performances have come over the last month. No matter who goes at quarterback for Michigan there should be enough firepower to outscore the Hawkeyes. By policy the pick comes from the season numbers but I would consider this score to be a bare minimum margin for Saturday.
Michigan 24 Iowa 10
Today's recruiting roundup covers the latest on Michigan top remaining 2013 targets, the 2014 Rivals250 Watch List, and more, including finally finding a good reason to post an Archer video.
McQuay: Leaning To Michigan?
Sam Webb caught up with FL S Leon McQuay III and his father in the wake of his official visit to Michigan, and the returns are quite good ($):
"I think that was the most impressive on my end,” McQuay III's father added. “His mom has been on two trips with us, and them having his schedule already pretty much planned out was real big with her. No other schools have done that. That’s something that I noticed too.”
The overall experience proved so positive that the younger McQuay was sorry to see it come to an end.
“I definitely could have stayed a little longer,” he admitted.
Neither father nor son are naming leaders at this point, but a couple factors are working in Michigan's favor. Not only did McQuay get a first-hand look at his preferred major by spending his visit with Jack Kennedy and Joe Reynolds, but he may not be able to make it out to USC before he makes his decision on January 4th—his trip to Los Angeles is set for December 7th, but there's a good chance he'll have to cancel if his team makes the state semifinals, and they've been state finalists each of the last three years.
McQuay still has a trip set to Florida State for later this month and he's been to Vanderbilt several times; at this point, those two schools may in fact be Michigan's biggest competition.
This wouldn't be a recruiting roundup without another bit on IL WR Laquon Treadwell, so here's Mike Farrell from his latest Mind of Mike column ($):
Treadwell is also interesting because he changes schools of interest like he changes underwear. The latest info has Notre Dame and Florida rising and Michigan falling. I still think the Wolverines are a serious player here and part of me thinks Treadwell is playing everyone, but we shall see.
Farrell also says he gets the feeling VA RB Derrick Green wants to play his college ball in the South; the problem is that his current southern favorites, Auburn and Tennessee, likely won't have the same coaching staffs next year. Word came down earlier this week that UT's Derek Dooley is on his way out, and now CBSSports is reporting that Auburn's president is preparing to fire Gene Chizik.
The tumult in the SEC may have a direct effect on more than just Green; MD WR Paul Harris had Michigan among his finalists before choosing Tennessee, but he's keeping a close eye on the Dooley situation, according to Rivals's Adam Friedman ($):
"If he definitely gets fired then I'm going to think about de-committing," he said. "I have such a good relationship with Coach (Derek Dooley) and that's one of the big reasons I committed there. If he (Derek Dooley) gets fired and Coach (Darin) Hinshaw gets fired then I'm definitely going to think about other schools.
"It would have to be one of my top schools," said Harris. "I've heard from Michigan, Maryland, USC, Miami, Penn State and Ohio State. They've still been talking to me asking if Coach (Derek) Dooley gets fired is there a chance I'd commit to them. I talked to Coach (Tee) Martin from USC a few weeks ago."
Harris plans to enroll early, so the decision would have to be made in the next month; the four-star prospect could be a nice fallback plan should the Wolverines miss out on Treadwell.
[Hit THE JUMP for the 2014 Rivals250 Watch List and more.]