You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Audioboom.
THE USUAL LINKS
- Speight still hurt in this game
- The officiating, with a lot of examples.
- Harbaugh’s other reason for saying something.
- “Why didn’t we have a 2-point play?” is a terrible take says not happy Brian.
- The NFL will say what you need to know about M’s offensive line.
- Speight’s improvisation was what this offense was living on.
- Craig names the greatest running back of his 3,000 years on this earth
- Leatherwood, Filiaga or Wilson: which does Sam think could start at LT next year?
So the Big Ten writers and coaches held a watered down version of Draftageddon called the “All Big Ten Awards” so we thought we’d chime in. The link has the official release.
Offense MVP: Barkley
Defense MVP: Peppers
Freshman: Mike Weber
Coach: Chryst (coaches), Franklin (media)
QB: Barrett, WR: Austin Carr, TE: Butt, OL: Elflein
DL: Tyquan Lewis, LB: Peppers, DB: Jourdan Lewis
K: Carpenter, P: Johnston, KR: Peppers
[Hit THE JUMP we have another think coming.]
Hello. With the regular season over and basketball in full flower it's time for our annual handoff of recruiting content to some guy named Brian.
Let's play the feud! And by that I mean take a look at the current status of the recruiting class and where it might go. Some of this lives on the usually-pretty-accurate Recruiting Board.
Some months back Sam Webb reported that Michigan expected to take between 28 and 32 kids this cycle. They have 24 spots right now. 28 is easy to get to: we expect Peppers to enter the draft and potential fifth year seniors Wyatt Shallman, Shane Morris, and Scott Sypniewski to depart. Beyond that you're looking at transfers from underclassmen for playing time or other reasons, of which there are always a few.
We don't have definite word that anyone won't be back, but every year you see a handful of transfers from every program in America. Michigan got a number of players a degree in three years so they could have immediate eligibility elsewhere, and I'd bet you see a couple of those. 32 seems right given the number of guys on the roster who have dim prospects for meaningful PT and the way Michigan's recruiting.
Potential sixth years for Drake Johnson and Jeremy Clark are complicating factors; Michigan might need 34 spots for 32 kids. So too are available letters of intent. Michigan can backdate 6 early enrollees, which means they can only sign 31 players. Any extra will have to "blueshirt," which is arriving as a walk-on and immediately getting a scholarship. As always, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Inevitable Decommit Section
Michigan has 20 commits, leaving approximately 12 spots for additional recruits. In 2016 decommits are as inevitable as someone on twitter saying "lol u mad" ten seconds into a conversation; there will be some turnover. Currently wobbly gentlemen in the class include:
- NM RB O'Maury Samuels, who took an Arizona visit and has consistently expressed an interest in visiting various Big 12 and Pac 12 schools. Arizona probably isn't much of a threat after the year they had. Samuels might be prepping alternate plans in case Michigan does land CA RB Najee Harris, just like...
- MA RB AJ Dillon, who visits BC this weekend. There's also been a moderate amount of Wisconsin chatter that has so far not resulted in a visit. Dillon is coming in for Michigan December 9th recruiting weekend; it would be a surprise if he ended up elsewhere without the Harris bomb dropping.
- AL S J'Marick Woods visited Mississippi State and Arkansas. His final-final decision is Friday. Both Arkansas and MissSt insiders are expressing optimism; guys like Lorenz and Webb don't think there's anything to fret about.
- FL OL Kai-Leon Herbert has visited both Miami and Florida. He plans to go out to Miami and maybe Florida again in January; with teammate FL OL Tedarrell Slaton trending away from M and possibly to one of those two schools this is a situation to keep an eye on.
Those are listed in approximate order of wobbliness.
On top of that, Michigan's been known to have second thoughts about particular recruits and may ship a couple dudes to Pitt. And on top of that, Michigan's clear desire to pack both OL and DL like cordwood may induce some current commits to look to less crowded depth charts.
Expect somewhere between 2 and 65 decommits by signing day. Trust no one!
[After THE JUMP: positional breakdown.]
So the Playoff Committee put Michigan 5th, where the top four get a chance at a national championship and the top(-ish) 12 play in more prestigious bowls in and around New Year’s. Getting into the playoffs requires some help and sympathy. It’s good that two teams above us have a chance to lose, potentially dropping them back. It’s good that we beat teams 6, 7, and 8. It’s bad that two of those could be conference champions, including our own conference.
So where are we going? Probably the Orange, but if you’d like more detail here’s everything I could divine about Michigan’s potential destinations.
What are the Rules?
- The Playoff Committee will decide on 4 teams to compete in the playoff. This year’s playoff games are the Fiesta and Peach Bowls.
- New Years Six obligations are filled in. Unless they’re in the above the B1G and Pac12 Championship Game winners play in the Rose Bowl, the SEC and Big XII winners play in the Sugar, the ACC winner plays in the Orange, and one “Group of Five” (Western Michigan most likely) team gets a spot somewhere between the Rose, Orange, Cotton and Sugar Bowls.
- [UPDATED, h/t user Alton] Bowl contracts are filled in, specifically the Rose Bowl gets a Big Ten and Pac Ten team, and the Sugar Bowl gets an SEC and Big XII team, assigned by the committee.
- At-large teams are filled in, with contracts, rematches, distance, and “most compelling matchups” in mind. For example the Orange Bowl gets first crack at a Big Ten or SEC #2. Unofficially, conference affiliations matter somewhat, e.g. the Rose Bowl would take a Pac#2/B1G#2 matchup and FSU or Louisville would be projected to the Orange.
- Old bowl process takes hold once the New Year’s Six are figured out.
Where’s Michigan in the Playoff Race?
Behind: Alabama regardless, Ohio State, Washington if they win, Clemson if they win.
Worried about getting passed by: Wisconsin or Penn State if they win, Colorado if they win.
Probably not getting passed by: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State as Big XII champ. Florida as SEC Champ. VT as ACC Champ. Washington or Clemson if they lose. Loser of the Big Ten Championship Game. USC, FSU, Louisville, Auburn, Western Michigan, Navy.
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 30, 2016
With Michigan the 5th team right now however this seems incorrect, particularly in light of Kirby Hocutt saying the committee needed two hours to decide to put Washington over Michigan for the 4th spot. The actual distinction matters little since a conference championship win for Washington would overcome whatever slim margin Michigan is ahead by at the moment.
That appears to put Michigan’s chances entirely dependent on one or two schools above them losing a conference championship game, then riding a head-to-head victory over a conference champ into the top four.
Even a loss to Florida probably doesn’t drop Alabama out of the Top 4, and Ohio State is obviously in before we are. The best, but hardly only shot of Michigan moving up is Colorado beating Washington (a 45% shot according to Bill C.) and Michigan (over the B1G CG winner) taking the Pac 12’s spot. If Virginia Tech upsets Clemson (20%), this also opens the door for Michigan. If both happen, Michigan still needs a head-to-head win to matter more than a B1G or P12 championship.
How the committee rates winning your conference championship game versus head-to-head is a mystery. They said they don’t consider margin of victory, so blowing out Penn State is probably seen the same as a one-score victory over Wisconsin, let alone two last-play losses on the road.
My guess is they’ll let the de jure Big Ten Champion jump definitely-not-Big Ten Champion Michigan, but not Ohio State. Michigan could end up above Colorado if both Washington and Clemson lose, but that’s a scenario with three Big Ten teams in the playoffs. That may be correct, but the committee created to avoid another LSU-Alabama rematch that everybody hates would probably take the B1G and Pac champs and leave Michigan out.
Likelihood of it: 10 percent.
[After THE JUMP: some NY6 destinations and worst case scenario]
A thousand words. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
This one is going to sting.
Michigan had every opportunity to put Virginia Tech away and get a quality home win only to squander it with poor defense, strange substitutions by John Beilein, and a hideous heroball play by Zak Irvin on the potential game-winning shot.
The first half went about as well as one could ask. The Wolverines jumped out to a quick lead and were up by double digits for most of the opening stanza, exploiting VT's matchup zone—something they'd seen already this season against Howard—for a series of open threes and layups. Irvin was especially hot, pouring in 15 of his game-high 23 in the first half, and solid offensive contributions from Duncan Robinson, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, and Moe Wagner combined with sloppy play from VT to give the Wolverines a nine-point halftime edge.
It was a different story in the second half. The Hokies stopped coughing up the ball, allowing them to attack Robinson and MAAR on the perimeter for blow-by layups and take advantage of Mark Donnal's interior defense seemingly every possession he was on the floor.
"[We were] just doing some strange things on defense, and it really cost us," said John Beilein.
"Sometimes we just lose that edge when you've got to get a stop, we lose that edge to get a stop. We've got to be a better defensive team than that."
Wagner had an efficient outing that left many wanting more. [Campredon]
Even though Wagner clearly outplayed Donnal throughout the game, they each logged 17 minutes, and the difference between the two was stark on both ends. VT's Zach LeDay got most of his 18 points when matched up with Donnal; he found the going tougher against Wagner and, for one possession before he fouled out, DJ Wilson. The Hokies couldn't stop Wagner, who hit 5-of-6 shots—most of them driving layups—for 11 points. Donnal did not score.
Michigan's ball movement petered out in the second half, too, and with it went their hot shooting; they shot only 12-for-30 and 3-for-13 from beyond the arc. Irvin embodied Michigan's struggles. After going 6-for-8 in the first half, making his shots within the confines of the offense, he hit only 4-of-12 in the second, forcing more of his looks. None were worse than his heroball chuck on Michigan's penultimate possession, which badly missed the mark with Michigan down one.
"We were trying to isolate him and they took him away a little bit. We know what to do when they take him away and we didn't do it," Beilein said. "It's that simple. So now we got isolated and we got all gunked up there, we couldn't call timeout, and we got a bad shot."
"I wish we had a timeout to really put something together. They blew it up and we didn't counter well."
After two VT free throws and a deflected inbounds pass, Michigan had one last chance on a sideline inbounds play with 3.7 seconds left. Wagner saved a long toss to Robinson, who got a half-decent look to tie it, but his shot rimmed out as the buzzer sounded.
"It's a great learning curve game for us, and we'll grow from it," Beilein said. "We didn't deserve the win the game the way we played those last ten minutes."
#25 Michigan (5-1) vs
#35 Virginia Tech (5-1)
Ann Arbor, Michigan
|WHEN||7 pm ET, Wednesday|
|LINE||Michigan -5 (KenPom)|
PBP: Jason Benetti
Analyst: Sean Farnham
Right: Star sixth man Zach LeDay plays much bigger than his listed 6'7". [Photo: Alex Brandon/AP]
Michigan bounced back from the ugly loss at South Carolina by jumping out to a 17-point halftime lead against Mount Saint Mary's on Saturday evening and cruising to the finish in an online-stream-only game watched by dozens. I was in a car on the way back from Ohio during that game, so I have little to add other than noting Moe Wagner hit 3-of-5 three-pointers.
This game is part of the ACC/B1G Challenge, which is tied up at four through eight games. The other games on tonight's schedule with KenPom lines:
Purdue at Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN (Louisville -7)
Rutgers at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPNU (Miami -15)
North Carolina at Indiana, 9 p.m., ESPN (UNC -3)
Ohio State at Virginia, 9 p.m., ESPN2 (Virginia -10)
Nebraska at Clemson, 9 p.m., ESPNU (Clemson -9)
As you can see, it'd take a few upsets for the Big Ten to win their third straight Challenge.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
|G||5||Justin Robinson||So.||6'1, 185||78||22||No|
|Pass-first PG with high assist and turnover rates. Decent outside shooter.|
|G||13||Ahmed Hill||RJr.||6'5, 205||74||18||Not At All|
|Just A Shooter™, 20-for-42 on triples this season.|
|G||10||Justin Bibbs||Jr.||6'5, 220||70||15||Not At All|
|Low-volume, high-efficiency scorer, especially from beyond the arc.|
|F||15||Chris Clarke||So.||6'6, 210||67||18||Yes|
|Good interior scorer, passer, and defensive rebounder.|
|C||2||Khadim Sy||Fr.||6'10, 240||34||19||Very|
|Starter playing backup minutes. Great rebounding and shot-blocking numbers. Foul prone.|
|F||32||Zach LeDay||RSr.||6'7, 235||75||26||Yes|
|Plays majority of C minutes. Good rebounder and inside scorer, draws lots of fouls.|
|G||4||Seth Allen||RSr.||6'1, 190||60||23||Kinda|
|Turnover-prone backup PG, decent finisher, iffy outside shooter off to hot start.|
|F||42||Ty Outlaw||RJr.||6'6, 220||28||18||No|
|JuCo transfer stretch four is 7-for-15 on threes, 0-for-5 on twos.|
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]