The Essentials

The Story

Michigan has quietly surprised early in the year, running up a 10-2 record, including a couple solid wins over the likes of Clemson, Harvard, and Oakland. They've already shifted expectations, but knocking off a ranked team in-conference would finally announce to the nation that they intend to seriously compete for an NCAA Tournament bid well into the new year.

Of course, it won't be easy, as Purdue brings a talented squad into Crisler Arena, including Ja'Juan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore, who passed up the chance to leave school early for the NBA last season, to reach new heights in Boilermaker uniforms. Though the Boilers will still be without sophomore sharpshooter Jon Hart, out another week or so with injury, they have the talent and experience advantages over the Wolverines.

Aside from Johnson (similar to Oakland's Keith Benson, but probably better) and Moore, the diminutive Lewis Jackson plays a key role for the Boilers, as the 5-9 junior is just outside the national top-100 in assist rate, and plays the better half of available minutes. DJ Byrd and Ryne Smith are other effective offensive players, but with only so many possessions to go around, they get a lot of playing time but don't hog the ball.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

With a few games under each team's belt, it's finally reasonable to look at the stats. If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

This is as close as Michigan's come since I've been writing the mgopreviews to matching up toe-to-toe with a really good opponent. The emergence of a couple pretty good defensive rebounders in Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan have wiped out last year's consistent advantages for the opponent on both ends of the boards. Michigan's switch to almost-excusive man defense hasn't hurt, and though it means the Wolverines don't force tons of turnovers anymore, opponents are having a tough time making their shots.

The Boilermakers are pretty good in the turnover department, elite at both holding on to the ball and forcing the opponents to turn it over themselves. The emergence of Darius Morris as an elite point guard (90 assists and just 30 turnovers this season) will hopefully mean that the Wolverines can change that trend.

Thus far this season the teams' numbers have been racked up against approximately equal competition. Both beat Oakland at home, took care of a solid ACC team on the road (though Purdue needed overtime to take down Virginia Tech), and have another top-100 win in their own gym, to go along with a smattering of lesser opposition that they've easily dispatched. The only true difference is the lack of two good opponents for Purdue in their Feast Week tournament, as they lost to Richmond, whereas Michigan took home a loss to a very good Syracuse team and a merely decent UTEP squad.

Predictions

Crisler Arena hasn't been a house of horrors for any Big Ten team, and since Purdue has been solid-to-excellent for the past several years, they won't be afraid of coming into the House that Cazzie Built. If Michigan wants to win, it's execution and effort, not intimidation, that will do the trick.

I have a good feeling about this game, as the teams' resumes really aren't that different at this point in the year, except for the Wolverines' defeat to UTEP (for which they don't receive a mulligan, but Purdue didn't have to face as good of opposition on back-to-back nights as the Wolverines). However, Purdue has the air of a team that's been there before, whereas the Wolverines still have some growing up to do in order to make it to the tournament on any given year, much less four straight as the Boilers have done.

Because this Wolverines team is so young, I think a mistake here and a mistake there is enough to doom them against Purdue. Darius Morris picks up another double-double, as does Zack Novak, but Purdue pulls away at the end, winning 67-58.

Elsewhere

Hammer and Rails previews the game. UMHoops goes into more depth on Purdue's team.

We're in the middle of a recruiting dead period, and about a month away from signing day. I thought I would give an update on who's left on the board, time frames for when specific recruits will make their decisions, and who will be visiting in the near future. 

Who's Left?

That's 14 current commitments, and for argument sake we'll just assume that Michigan will take 20 in this class. Rich Rodriguez has recently said they will take anywhere from 18-20 commits, so we'll go with 20. Here's a look at the most likely recruits left at each position, up to this point. There could be some new names pop up, but this list seems pretty solid for now.

Frost is in this category because he will most likely get his chance to try wide receiver before potentially moving to linebacker. The situation for Michigan here is that they may just lead for all four of these receivers. 

Again Michigan is in great position for most of these recruits. 

Tabb is thinking over his decision, and will be announcing sometime in early or mid January. The coaching situation had been factoring into his decision, and he was also hoping for an offer from Miami. He's not getting the Miami offer, so it will be between Michigan, North Carolina, and Arkansas.

Bryant isn't sure if he wants to wait until signing day to make his decision, or just get it over with. He is waiting to see what happens with the coaches, but Michigan is likely to land Chris.

As you can see, there are a lot of recruits left for only roughly 6 spots left. The good news is that there is a lot of quality left on the board. The recruits that are left and still have Michigan in the race are ranked highly, and more importantly could help Michigan in key areas. 

Visits

The next visit weekend will be January 7th, and will be host to a good amount of prospects. Here's the list so far, and as usual will be updated as we get closer. These visits aren't set in stone, so they could change from now until the 7th.

• S Sheldon Royster - Michigan is in Royster's top four with North Carolina, Rutgers, and South Carolina
• DE Deion Barnes - Michigan is in Barne's top group with Penn State, South Carolina, and Georgia.
• WR Devin Lucien - Michigan is in a very favorable spot for Lucien. This visit could determine where he ends up.
• DT Darian Cooper - Cooper still lists Michigan in his top group, but definitely has concerns about the coaching situation. He should have some answers by this time.
• ATH Raymon Taylor - Recently offered by Michigan, and recently decommitted from Indiana I suspect that Michigan leads. 
• TE Tanner McEvoy
• TE/LB Frank Clark - The Glenville prospect always speaks highly of Michigan, and is excited about the visit. 

As usual, new commit means we hit the front page. Action since last rankings:

12-19-10 Iowa loses commitment from Mika'il McCall (false alarm from the recruiting sites).
12-20-10 Illinois gains commitments from Dondi Kirby and Kenny Nelson. Minnesota gains commitments from Grayson Levine and Marcus Jones. Nebraska loses commitment from Tevin Mitchell. Wisconsin gains commitment from Devin Gaulden.
12-22-10 Illinois loses commitment from Tyler Marcordes.
12-24 Michigan gains commitment from Matt Goudis. Minnesota gains commitment from Drayquan Crawford.

Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn 1 star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45, except JuCo players, who aren't included in the average).

Full data after the jump.

CA K Matt Goudis, though he said he wouldn't be decommitting from Boise State, has done just that and pledge to Michigan.

INFORMATIVE PORTION

via Roar of the Tigers.
Also the front of the MGoWedding's save the date cards, minus the elder-terrifying text.

It's time for the annual approximately week-long Christmas break, which extends from tomorrow, the 23rd, to the 28th. Normal blog service resumes the 29th, with exceptions made for breaking news of an important variety. A recruiting dead period just began and the only sporting event in the interim is a basketball game against Bryant they should win by 30, so monumental news is unlikely.

Merry Christmas/Holiday of Choice.

Remember, all-time updates can be found on the 2011 Michigan Football Recruiting Board. If you have any recruiting tips or questions, you can e-mail them to me at t.w.sullivan1@gmail.com or tweet @varsityblue. For game updates on Wolverine commits, check out the Friday Night Lights series.

Blake Countess Goes Blue

MD CB Blake Countess committed to Michigan last week. Tom spoke with Blake shortly after the commitment, and he had this to say:

I just fell in love with the school, the facilities, and everything the University has to offer really.

He also talked to The Baltimore Sun's Matt Bracken:

“The Big House, I knew about it but hadn't really seen it at all,” Countess said. “When I went there, it was just unbelievable. I really fell in love with the school, the atmosphere and Ann Arbor.”

Touch the Banner on Blake's game:

I can't honestly say that he's "great" at any one thing. But unlike several other cornerback recruits over the past few years (Justin Turner was too big, Demar Dorsey was too thuggish, Boubacar Cissoko was short and harbored too much ill will toward delivery boys), Countess doesn't have any glaring deficiencies. He has decent size, runs well, has good hips, is a solid tackler, and tracks the ball well in the air.

And there was much rejoicing. For more on Countess, check out the Hello post and yesterday's Friday Night Lights.

Hypothetical Decommitment Apocalypse

We've addressed rumors (and facts) re: Demetrius Hart's commitment status time and again, but the case remains the same: He's committed to Michigan as long as Rich Rodriguez is the coach. Florida scrapping the spread offense for pro-style sets narrows down the likely competition for Hart's signature, helping Michigan hold onto him. Of course, Alabama just so happening to spend thousands of dollars upgrading Dr. Phillips's facilities is coincidence, I assure you.

Elsewhere in decommitment scuttlebutt, FL CB Commit Dallas Crawford is starting to hear from his childhood favorite, the Miami Hurricanes. Like Dee, Dallas is unlikely to decommit as long as Rich Rodriguez's job is safe, but this certainly throws a wrench in the works. Tom talked to his coach, who gave some reassuring quotes. At least Miami's fans are sure to show the love.

Jack Miller and Greg Brown are coming to Michigan no matter who's the coach, but both believe Rich Rodriguez will succeed in Ann Arbor. Fisher:

"I think it's a media thing, what they're trying to do, making it a big deal,"

Which is 100% true, of course. Fellow commit Desmond Morgan is effusive in his praise of what a "great guy" Rodriguez is. He's also confident that the staff will return, but will stick with Michigan no matter what. (in the article above, Blake Countess makes similar statements).

And, while we're on the topic, I guess I'll have to mention the Detroit News article stating Dave Brandon's timetable is affecting recruiting, if only because Tom is quoted. My personal thought is that he's not going to change his mind, regardless of how much people bitch about it, so what's the point in continuing to rail on about it?

Etc.

Looking for positive news? MI RB/Slot Commit Justice Hayes says more commits are on the way.

NC QB Marquise Williams is going to stick with UNC ($, info in header), unfazed by the USC-level sanctions headed their way. Of course, there's a contradictory article about his status every other day, so bear with that one.

NC WR/LB Kris Frost talked recruiting before participating in the Shrine Bowl last weekend:

"It's time for the (Army) All-American game in San Antonio and I'm really excited about that. [If he could choose what to play there] It would be receiver, my wish. That just goes back to showing what I can do. A lot of people want to stress and say, 'You're so good at linebacker so why are you thinking of receiver?' I haven't really been seen at receiver and I don't feel like it's that big of a deal. I'll always have something to fall back on. It's not like I'm running away from something. I feel like if I have an opportunity to do both I'm going to take it."

As for what's going to be the deciding factor between Michigan, LSU, and Auburn:

"It's pretty much going to come down to comfort level," Frost said. "It's going to be what is the best fit for me and what team is going to expose me the most and allow me to make plays and be the best I can be. I'm going to have some time now to look it over with my family and think about it and now's the time to get back to school, get back to studying and get back to the recruiting process."

He plans to make his choice at the Army game. Frost was named the defensive MVP for North Carolina in the game.

High school fluff on Shawn Conway's JuCo adventure.

Michigan sent a big contingent of recruiters to visit SC WR Hakeem Flowers ($, info in header).

OH TE Darien Bryant committed to Nebraska, but wait! He immediately decommitted, so he may still be an option.

Rich Rod recently had his in-home visit with NJ TE Jack Tabb. He's deciding soon, though he's pushed that date back a couple weeks.

Happy Trails, NC TE Drew Owens, who committed to South Carolina ($, info in header).

MI CB Raymon Taylor recently received his Michigan offer ($, info in header). I spotted him at practice on Saturday.

Local fluffon CA K Connor Loftus, who holds a Michigan offer:

He came into Saturday night's CIF state championship Open Division bowl game with 15 field goals, including a long of 53, and he hasn't missed from under 40 yards. In the Pac-5 semifinals, he had a 68-yard punt against Mission Hills Alemany. Even more impressive is his ability to put the ball consistently into the end zone on kickoffs.

Yes plz. He plans to visit.

In his weekly update, Tom has information of FL S Roderick Ryles and MD DT Darian Cooper considering Michigan.

2012

Michigan, Oregon, and Ohio State are the favorites for IL QB Robert Gregory. He likes that they "play athletes" at the QB position. Gregory was All-State as a junior.

The other part of Tom's brief interview with new Michigan commit Blake Countess regards recruiting for the Wolverines:

Ohh of course. Me and Stefon are really close, so thats definitely going to be something I look foward to doing in the future. We have a bunch of underclassmen studs at my school.

"Stefon" refers to MD WR Stefon Diggs, one of 15 wideouts Scout has already pegged with 4-star status for the 2012 class.