Don't look at me, lady. via

As of about 5:30 LSU's athletic director was saying he hadn't been contacted about Les Miles and would shoot any Yankee who came within 500 feet of him: "Les Miles is LSU's head coach and we are going to do everything we can to keep it that way. He has had great success here and we plan to keep enjoying that success under his leadership."

But now drums in the deep say that is one lying-ass athletic director:

Michigan expressed interest in talking to LSU coach Les Miles prior to the AT&T Cotton Bowl and it is expected the meeting will occur soon, sources told ESPN.

One source close to Miles said a time and place has not been finalized. Another source said the coach would give LSU 24 hours notification before the interview and that had not occurred. Miles, a Michigan alum, would be interested in listening to athletic director Dave Brandon, one source close to him said.

In this case, drums in the deep are Joe Schad. If you work for ESPN please change his password to this.

Now… this exact same article was written three years ago—almost to the letter—but apparently no meeting ever happened or was set up. Les Miles did get punched in the face with millions of dollars, though, and his agent probably plays "have a nice day" as part of his hype-up video to this day. I'm always deeply skeptical of "sources" who are talking to the WWL and no one else because a good chunk of the time they're lying-ass agents. ESPN scoops == 50% agent vapor.

Meanwhile, my inbox has accounts that 75% guarantee Brady Hoke will be coach having a dance-off with accounts that 75% guarantee Les Miles will be coach. I don't really believe any of them, because the one thing that seems like a rock-hard certainty is that about five people have any clue WTF is going on. Even last time when there was a committee leaking left and right, almost everything that got reported about Michigan guys turned out to be crap—Hoke was never in play, and neither was Miles—and the best information came from third parties who were close to Ferentz, Schiano, and eventually Rodriguez. Rodriguez and Schiano came so far out of left field that the actual media was ahead of the rumor train—the Sporting News was the first entity to mention Rodriguez in connection with Michigan even counting GoBlue1856 and his four posts on Rivals.

This time we're dealing with a pro-Hoke crowd who knows him personally and the LSU fanbase, so… yeah. Maybe that's just me engaging in wishful thinking that the next coach's best asset won't be his ability to find Cubs' AC without a GPS, but since those two guys are so bleedingly obvious it seems easy for misinformation about them to get passed around. A similar drumbeat about a guy without connections to Michigan would be an all but certain hire. This I don't know.

The thing I was told before this all started blowing up, long before it, was that for a lot of reasons Miles would never be seriously considered for the Michigan job. Obviously I'm wavering from that point but I still think Michigan's coach is more likely than not to be someone no one is talking about right now.

COMPLETELY BOGUS PERCENTAGES:

30% Brady Hoke
20% Les Miles
50% Hot Coordinator Du Jour

BONUS: We've officially reached that bit of the coaching search: sources say Jon Gruden is "interviewing for" the job, and by "interviewing for" FSD's Jennifer Hammond means "golfing in the vicinity of." Seriously, even she hashtags that baby "takeitwithagrainofsalt." Will do, Ms. Hammond.

On the candidate pool:

Several respected people, yourself included, have correctly bashed the concept of a "Michigan Man" being a criteria for coaching this job (especially since there are so few actual Michigan Men qualified for the job despite a 38-year era to cultivate it).  But what about the feeling that the new coach must be a proven head coach at a decent school?  Isn't that a bit elitist of our fan base and narrowing the field substantially?

Obviously having someone with a great track record in a BCS conference reduces the risk substantially, but we just spent 3-years learning that it doesn't eliminate the risk completely.  Conversely:

• Florida has been the best program in the country the past few years and just hired an coordinator with no head coaching experience and no ties to the program.
• That same coordinator was being groomed to take over at Texas, another national power, despite only being their DC for two years.
• Nebraska is one of the all-time winningest programs and has returned to respectability (after a similar coaching debacle) by hiring a coordinator with no head coaching experience.
• Wisconsin has been a force in the conference since promoting a DC who had minimal experience.
• OSU has been one of the elite programs in the country after hiring a Div-1AA coach.

What makes us as a fan base require the candidates to be proven commodities at a big school?  What about plucking an up-and-coming coordinator from somewhere who will work their tail off because it is their first job?  Why aren't their names like that on all the list of candidates being thrown around? 

When I put together a list of the six plausible-if-they-'d-come candidates a few days ago they were all D-I head coaches, but I was basing that off Dave Brandon's assertion in the press conference that they'd be looking for someone who's currently a college head coach. I'm not necessarily advocating it myself. In fact, with everyone on that list off the table or a real longshot to start, it's time to move on to hot coordinators at BCS schools.

You want a guy who is in the right age bracket with a track record of excellent performances on his side of the ball under a head coach that either specializes on the other side of the ball or is more of a CEO type: Pelini, Muschamp, and Bielema all fit that profile. So did Chip Kelly, Bob Stoops, and Mark Richt. That's probably four of the fifteen most prestigious programs in the country plus knocking-on-the-door Oregon and Wisconsin. Hot coordinators aren't just for the middle of the pack.

Who's out there right now?

• Gus Mahlzahn, OC, Auburn. Turned down Vandy job for payday at Auburn but there's only so much you can pay an OC and Vanderbilt's a deathtrap he was probably using for leverage more than anything else. Obvious con is that he's a real Southerner from the South and this will set off fainting spells across the land.
• Brent Venables, DC, Oklahoma. A slight violation of the principles above since Stoops is a defensive guy but he's getting up there and has probably removed himself from the day-to-day operations enough that Oklahoma's consistently excellent defense is largely Venables. He's young (40) but has seven years as a DC under his belt. Midwest connections are lacking.
• Paul Chryst, OC, Wisconsin. Interviewed for but either didn't get or didn't take the Texas OC job, but has made the Wisconsin offense terrifying. At 45 about ready to move up after almost a decade as a successful OC. Downside: hard to think of a more extreme mismatch with Michigan's offensive talent. Actually five years older than Bielema so it would take an implosion in Madison for the fact Wisconsin's his alma mater to be relevant.
• Tom Bradley, DC, Penn State. I mean why not at this point, right? Bradley's interviewing for jobs left and right and if he's not actually the new guy at Pitt he clearly seems willing to move on. He's been the defacto head coach at Penn State for years, has been the backbone of their consistently excellent defense, and could bring along a big chunk of staff with him. Caveat: he'd have to agree to an exorbitant you-can't-go-home-again buyout.
• Bud Foster, DC, Virginia Tech. The backbone of the good bit of Virginia Tech. People have tried to pry him out of Blacksburg forever and he hasn't gone but they've been offering DC jobs, not the head chair. A glance at his stats is ridiculous: the last five years VT has been sixth nationally or better in yardage defense. Is 51, so if he's ever going to be a head coach now's the time. Has interviewed at Pitt.

That's a list not far off the list of head coaches with one important difference: Michigan's likely to get one of the above. Again, if Brady Hoke was a former Penn State assistant would he be more attractive than those guys? I prefer someone with a 20-year timeframe who's proven he can assemble half of a conference championship-caliber team in the BCS to someone who, you know, hasn't.

Malzahn might bring scoffs about Midwest ties and Southern oh noes and whatnot but look at him:

This man is kind of a dork. In certain shots he looks a bit like Alton Brown. The latest bit of fluff on him from Pat Forde deploys the phrase "impregnable earnestness." He's also 45 and was the guy in charge of three wildly different, wildly successful offenses in five years as a coordinator. The fourth and fifth years were not quite as amazing but still saw teams rocking Chris freakin' Todd and freshman Mitch Mustain at quarterback finish 18th and 29th in total offense. Brandon mentioned offensive flexibility in the press conference. Mahlzahn offenses have been run-mad (2006 Arkansas and 2009-10 Auburn), pass-mad (2007 Tulsa) or both (2008 Tulsa).

There will be questions about recruiting and ties and whatnot but with Harbaugh gone we're now picking between questions, and I prefer "will this guy with an awesome offense that fits Denard like whoah be able to recruit and find a DC?" to "how long will a pro-style rebuild take and how much of my soul will die watching Denard play for someone else?"

I mean, who would Jeremy Foley hire?

Brian,

Why not Mike Gundy? Other than the presser blowup and the whole leaving your alma mater thing, he'd seem like a good hire.

Mark

He's a man and he's now 43, so he's in a good spot as far as longevity but I didn't throw Gundy on the list because the blowup seemed like it would be offputting in the aftermath of Press Consumes Rodriguez Alive As Family Watches In Horror. Meanwhile, T. Boone Pickens will match anything Michigan can put out there and there is the whole alma mater thing. I didn't think he was plausible since the situation was "Pat Fitzgerald except the school can pay him."

In the name of equal time, section in which Hoke is defended:

Brian,
How you could advocate Patterson over Hoke is absolutely beyond me.  Patterson has no ties whatsoever to the midwest.  He has only recruited Texas, yes his schemes are fundamentally sound but as we saw with RR there is way more to football than that.  I wholeheartedly disagree with you on that one.  Give Hoke as much time as Patterson has had in the Mountain West and he will have as much success. 

Dave C.

Seriously? How on earth are we supposed to expect that a guy who's had two years in eight above .500 is as good of a coach as a guy with 8 of 10 above .500, most of them featuring eleven wins—TCU has won 11 games six(!) times under Patterson. He's vastly more proven than Hoke, whose single comparable season ended with blowout losses against Buffalo and Tulsa. Patterson just beat Wisconsin. There is absolutely no comparison between their resumes.

"Ties to the midwest" are somewhat important, but a couple local assistants can help smooth over any minor recruiting bumps and shouldn't outweigh a record of 98-28 over ten years. Ten years! Averaging 9.8 wins per year! Flargabargaegabarb.

Despite my antipathy for him it's not like Hoke is a guaranteed failure. However, it's hard to see him not providing another awkward transition period and then being at the tail end of his career by the time he gets something up and going. The upside is low, and frankly I don't want to return to whatever philosophy Carr had at the end of his career when OSU zoomed by him and Michigan flailed about with no answers. Michigan is in this situation because the Carr coaching tree doesn't exist and his version of bringing in Bret Bielema (a wildly successful DC at Kansas State) or Chip Kelly was to gradually force out Terry Malone in favor of Mike DeBord. Look at what Mack Brown's doing at Texas and compare it to the way Carr went out.

I want nothing to do with anyone who was a part of that unless someone else has employed them in a similar capacity because it's clear who you know became more important than anything late. Michigan cannot go home again and would be making a mistake by trying.

[Ed: In case you were wondering what that business about dolla bills was...]

At Wednesday’s press conference, Brandon made reference to Michigan’s mediocre compensation package. I knew that Michigan didn’t pay top dollar for coaches, but when I heard Brandon refer to it as “middle of the road” and “unacceptable”, dude/etts… how can that be? It’s Michigan; we have scratch if nothing else. So, I embarked on a mission with the following objectives: 1) Define middle of the road and 2) recalibrate the coaching salary budget. I have learned, at the very least, a meaningful chunk of the explanation to a few issues we have observed.

For this study, I used USA Today’s Database of coach’s salaries for 2010.

What is Middle of the Road?

  To answer this question a more sophisticated look is needed than my reflexive answer: the average or 50th percentile of the population. In Michigan’s case, the population could mean at least three things.

All FBS schools, pop.: 120. Pretty straight forward as to who’s included here. Middle of the road would be top-60 money. No way, Michigan has more money than Indiana, let alone Louisiana Monroe. This population is out.

All BCS AQ schools, pop.: 66. Again straight forward and more reasonable. Middle of the road is top-33 money. A useful benchmark.

“The FBS Hegemony”, pop.: 15 (or so). I have some ‘splaining to do here. Before 1980 college football was pretty different from what we see today: scholarship limits have changed, the passing game has been allowed to evolve, and the Florida schools have emerged. Not to mention the basic amateurism and substitution rules changes that occurred prior to 1970. In college football, anything before 1980 is simply a by-gone era.

As such, I define the “hegemony” as those schools who could plausibly win a mythical national championship in the modern era. To determine these I’ve looked at the schools who have actually won one since 1980,  only 19 schools qualify. Of those, only 12 have won an MNC since 1990 and still could: Alabama, Florida, Florida St., LSU, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, USC. Since Notre Dame gets special BCS consideration, they’re in. Then there’s another rotating crop of schools that could plausibly vie for an MNC today (Penn St, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Auburn, and Oregon) but haven’t done so in the last 25 years. Fifteen feels like a good number to work with, though I think a reasonable argument could be made for 20. I’m going with 15. So, middle of the road for “the hegemony” would be top-8 money.

Assessing Michigan’s Compensation Package

For simplicity’s sake, I focused my attention on University-based pay for Head Coaches and their staff (total). Of the 112 programs available in the database, the $2.5M Michigan paid Rich Rodriguez in 2010 is better than middle of the road for BCS schools (top-12 in FBS), but basically middle of the road (9th out of 15) for MNC-plausible schools included in the database.

When it comes to assistant coaches, things are different; unfortunately for everyone involved. In 2010, Michigan peeled of $1.8M in compensation for former Coach Rodriguez’s staff ranks in the 73rd percentile for the 112 programs listed (top-31 money) but dead last amongst the big dogs. Who among us is willing to pay more money for better defensive assistants? No one, I’m sure… /s.

I sooo don’t want to rehash but it’s clear that Rich Rodriguez had a specific vision for what he wanted his defense to be capable of and there he knew just the guy to do it (not shown at right). The word on Hoover street is that Jeff Casteel just liked West FUCKING Virginia too much to come to Ann Arbor. OK. Homeboy earned just over $372k last year. Allow me to visualize a phone call between Rich and Jeff circa Thanksgiving 2008:

RR: Hey! Jeff, buddy, pal, friend-o-mine;  how goes it?

JC: Aiight, I guess. I kinda miss my homies and it sucks being Brian Kelly’s bitch, but the squad is doing ok down here and I’m super glad that I didn’t uproot my family to move to Michigan and deal with THAT cluster-[bleep], you know?

RR: Totally... *sigh* [collects himself] So, how would you like to bring your sweet-ass defensive coordinating ability and concepts to ace deuce next year? Our helmets got wings… ah? AH? Have I ever told you that you raise me up so I can stand on mountains? That, with you around, I can walk I stormy seas? That I am strong when I am on your shoulders? That you raise me up to more than I can be?

JC: Yo… get a grip, G. What have those hippies done to you, yo?

I dunno, bro; I kinda like it here and like I said, it looks like you have a cluster-[bleep] on your hands--

RR: I’ll pay you $750k a year.

JC: Hey, Stewart! Eat a [hot dog]! See you tomorrow, Rich, buddy, pal, friend-o-mine.

*Click*

Or something like that. By “like that” I mean verbatim.

Gerg was our second highest paid assistant last year at $270k, but really he only made $5k less than Magee. Guess what the top two assistants in the hegemony averaged in 2010 excluding Muschamp…about $425k. We had the lowest paid offensive and defensive coordinators by at least $25k and we were $100k away from middle of the pack.

Nope, that won’t do for a team trying not to suck. Bill Martin made many mistakes, but being cheap is the only one I find impossible very difficult to forgive.

It goes on. You get the picture but, in case you don’t here’s a chart; gotta have a chart:

That thar is bullshit.

How Much Would You Pay to Not Suck?

$6.5 Million per year, exactly. No less than $5.7M

Jim Harbaugh commanded a salary at that Nick Saban / Mack Brown level ($5M per year). Pretty steep but I’d shell it out this very second… Anyway, Meyer, Stoops, Miles, Tressel are at the $4M range. To be the program everyone used to thinks of when they hear MICHIGAN--you know, part of the hegemony. Right?—we need a head coach worth at least $3M (Mark Richt) and probably more like $4M (Jim Tressel - $3.5M)If you’re going to beat Tressel don’t you have to, you know, beat Tressel?

As for assistants, the golden ratio fits very nicely: 62% of budget on head coach, 38% of budget on the rest of the staff. That equates to a total budget of $6.5M.

But Wait, There’s More…

I think Michigan should be will to pay top dollar for the ultimate prizes (Bowl Wins, B1G Championships, National Championships). We need escalators for each accomplishments for everyone on the staff. Something like this:

Bonus Structure:

Staff - Bowl Win: +5% Salary

Staff - B1G Championship: +10% Salary

Staff – National Championship: +35% Salary

All cumulative. So, winning a National Championship would increase each staff member’s pay by 50%. At a budget of $5.7M, a national championship would result in an outlay (salaries and bonuses) equal to Alabama’s base 2010 salary budget ($8.4M).

Boom, let’s get to work.

----

Assistant type folk I’d like to see M land/go after once we have a horse:

• Chuck Heater – Formerly DB / co-DC at Florida; played at Michigan with Dave Brandon.
• Teryl Austin – Formerly DC at Florida; DB coach for two Super Bowl Teams (Seattle 2003, Arizona 2006); defensive backs coach in prime Carr years (1999 - 2002).
• Scot Loeffler – Coached and/or recruited Tom Brady, Drew Henson, John Navarre, Chad Henne, Ryan Mallet at Michigan.
• Phil Bennett - Impressive 2009 national ratings in sacks (3.62 sacks/game), rushing defense (17th, 106.31 yards/games), scoring defense (19th, 19.77 points/game) and total defense (23rd, 319.31 yards/game). In 2010 Pitt ranked 9th in total defense (304 ypg).
• Bill McGovern - 2010 Eagles ranked #1 nationally in rushing defense (80 ypg),  13th in total defense (310 ypg), 19th in scoring defense (19.5 ppg)in the ACC in rushing defense, allowing just 103.2 rushing yards per game.

Everyone but McGovern is currently available AFAIK. It’s guys like this that make me most nervous about not having an HC locked down right now. I’d feel much better about Brady Hoke if I knew who he would have in tow with him if he were to be hired.

Still, I prefer to find someone who commands a $3-4 M salary.

We'll get started between 12:30 and 12:45. The game is at 1 on NBC.

Oh, Lord. Kelvin Grady is using the twitter cryptically:

I have a good feeling about this weekend.... "in DB we trust" #goblue
28 minutes ago via Twitter for iPad

And Flight Aware caught that winged helmet Learjet touching down in Baton Rouge, so it's time to blow up again. Yes, Les Miles is in Dallas. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the winged helmet Learjet has nothing to do with the university. No, WE WILL NOT BE DISSUADED FROM EXPLODING.

So LSU boards are virtually overrun with speculation about Miles leaving Michigan, and Miles was less definitive in his post-Not Cotton Bowl press conference and there's a LA radio station* reporting that Miles will take the Michigan job "within 48 hours." Of course, I'm listening to it at the moment and the first caller is deliciously confrontational, forcing the guy to back off a little bit. "His sources" directly contradict random radio guy's sources, which given the track record of radio stations when it comes to breaking news is just about as worthwhile. They pegged their confidence at "8 or 9 out of ten."

Despite that radio call-in smackdown, there is an absolute ton of buzz about Miles to Michigan from the LSU side of things. I have a second-hand non-gospel report originating from LSU boosters saying he's gone that's two days old now and Tiger Droppings has been burning up with stuff. You take the word of message boards at your peril but as a guy who's wandered around them for years the widespread buzz has the air of something true.

On the other hand, if Miles is leaving he's apparently not only not told his players but bluntly lied to them:

Russell Shepard just told me Les Miles assured team he's coming back. Not going to Michigan. … So have many others.

He did cut that one guy with a form letter so maybe they haven't checked their mail recently.

I've made my opinion clear on this: Miles is old, has enthusiastically adopted the tao of SEC, and just saw his program take a more serious hit from the NCAA than Rodriguez did. Even if it works out in five years Michigan is going to be saddled with a coach exactly as old as Carr was when he retired and will either get to experience the extended senescence of a guy who's already wacky or experience yet another transition. I would prefer Brady Hoke.

I'm probably alone in this, I know.

UPDATE: More from LSU players:

"He said, 'They have rumors going around about (me) going to Michigan, but it's not true,'" Jefferson said. "'It's nonsense.' He said hasn't spoken to anybody, anything about Michigan. We're going to stick with that and get ready for next year." …

"He told us this is his football team and this is where he's going to be," Ridley said. "We respect our coach, and this is our coach for right now, and we're going to enjoy him as long as we can. Coach Miles is a Tiger. This is his group of guys, and he's proud of us. I think this is where he will be next year."

Seems fairly unambiguous there.

There's a press conference scheduled. It's over:

Jim Harbaugh agreed to a five-year, $25 million contract to become the San Francisco 49ers' head coach Friday, according to team and league sources.

The 49ers announced a news conference scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET, but did not indicate the reason.

Commence the wailing and gnashing of teeth.