I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
|WHAT||Michigan vs Northwestern|
Ann Arbor, MI
12:00 PM Eastern
November 10th, 2012
|THE LINE||Michigan –9.5|
|WEATHER||dry, partly cloudy, around 60|
Yeah, that line swung hard from a –13 open. Denard uncertainty, or just bettors all looking at that and going "ah yup Northwestern," as was Michigan fans' instinct? Probably both for a four point move.
Run Offense vs Northwestern
So… after last week I don't even know man. Here's Northwestern's Big Ten performance to date:
I've gotten a vibe of sunny optimism from Northwestern fans about the run defense with their blogs and our Q&As and whatnot; the numbers don't really show it until the Iowa game. Penn State yeah but I think they only did okay there. Zach Zwinak put up 122 yards on 18 carries, 4.3 per; Matt McGloin had seven carries, two of which I've slashed out as sacks; the other five just about have to be scrambles. But even so they're only around 4, 4.5.
Meanwhile, a Denard-less Michigan just put up 4.0 YPC against awful awful Minnesota, garbage time excluded, and 4.7 garbage time inclusive. Without Denard the run offense's limitations are ruthlessly exposed. So it depends on the availability of the man who is Denard, about which we know nothing. Michigan is flirting with offensive line changes…
To prepare for Northwestern, Hoke has emphasized physicality in practices this week. On Wednesday, Hoke recycled a phrase he hasn’t used in quite some time. He said he could “hear” football, a term he favors when his lineman are hitting up to his standards.
Still, Hoke said he wouldn’t make a decision on Burzynski or Miller until after Thursday’s practice.
“Those guys have gotten some reps with the ones some, but we’ll see,” Hoke said. “I can’t tell you until we finish, and we don’t really finish until Thursday, where everybody’s at from a mental standpoint.”
…ten games into the season. That is not good. Barnum, Mealer, and Omameh—Omameh to a lesser extent—have all taken turns getting run plays blown up, and the tight end play has been erratic at best. Kwiatkowski has been pretty good; the other two guys have not been. The running backs have not been generating yards themselves.
Everything is a disaster and Denard is averaging 7.2 YPC without even bothering to adjust for sacks. Gardner could paper over some of that with his legs, but Michigan wisely avoided deploying them much since getting Gardner dinged would mean walk-on Jack Kennedy enters. That is not likely to be good eats.
So… yeah. At this point Michigan isn't likely to find the secret, so it's about the quarterback getting a numerical advantage and running the veer—Michigan's single consistently successful run play—and only Denard can do that because if Denard is not in the game Michigan cannot risk getting their QB injured. Predict that.
As for the Wildcats, they are functional. They crushed their crappy nonconference opponents (Syracuse, Vandy, BC) on the ground and have hung in against the non-Indiana(!) sections of the schedule. I'd normally dismiss crushing Iowa's run game after AIRBHG blew everything up, including two Hawkeye OL starters, but… yeah, can't. Because of the blocking.
Key Matchup: Michigan Interior OL versus Block Somebody. Right? I mean, right.
[Hit THE JUMP for more BIG TENNNN offense]
About Last Saturday:
Jug Half Full - 35, Jug Half Empty - 13
Tom Olmscheid / AP
Get well soon.
May I suggest a bacta tank?
/ runs away giggling.
The Road Ahead:
"This big?" / "No, THIS BIG."
No. 24 Northwestern (7-2 overall, 3-2 B1G)
Last week: Idlecats.
This team is as frightening as: A guy who shows up to a fight armed with only a Maglite. Except it's not a Maglite. It's a lightsaber. And he is Luke Skywalker. Fear level = 10.
Michigan should worry about: Northwestern possesses the best wide receiver in the world. His name is Kyle Prater, and you don't know this because they have been keeping him a secret. They have been saving the surprise. Michigan has no idea what's coming.
But I do.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: There is no shame in getting beaten by a player who is so elite that his presence at USC violated the laws of competitive fairness, which forced him to transfer to a small liberal arts school in Evanston and wear purple for the rest of his life.
When they play Michigan: Prater will have 12 catches for 170 yards and four touchdowns.
Next game: @ Michigan.
By Ace. From.
Sports doesn't exist for charity. It's about competition, tribal mechanisms, and betterment for the sake of itself. Fans follow teams for the identification, the camaraderie, and the thrill of what is essentially fake war by proxy, not to heal the sick, shelter the homeless, or feed the hungry. But on occasion, such things can be an ancillary benefit. From Martavious Odoms:
I want to thank the mgoblog community for allowing me to become part of something so special and helping us reach our goal for the garden project. The rewards took a little longer than we expected but we got them all ordered and as soon as we get the order back you will get your reward. (Side Note) I will be attending my first game in the BIG HOUSE 11-10-2012 I'm tired of watching the games from home and i'm ready to tailgate never got that chance to do it because i was always playing so i'm ready to experience that.
After graduating, Tae took the #EATING meme and made it real. Hope for Pahokee, his organization, had a kickstarter campaign to launch an urban gardening program. Every other day the board was hit up by another unsolicited reader reminding folks to contribute. They hit their mark, and now the Floridian swamp burg that a run-out-of-town coach raided for type players for his run-out-of-town systems will have a little Michigan garden right in the center of town. Sports isn't supposed to be about bringing together such disparate places as Ann Arbor, MI, and Pahokee, FL. But then we can all get behind #EATING.
Don't Miss These:
The 10-Year War by Proxy. I'm pretty sure k.o.k. Law is an older guy. For one he pasted his diary from Word in 16-point font Arial (now fixed). Two, most of the article is written in short, one-sentence paragraphs. And three, he has memories from The Game in 1967:
That was back in the days when you could rake up the leaves, pile them on the driveway, and burn them. Even in the suburbs.
And only one or two UM games were televised each year, so, tend the burning leaves and listen on the radio.
Thus began kokLaw's love affair with Michigan. I put the quote about the radio above because even 20 years later, when my generation were first becoming fans, a lot of those games weren't broadcast. So for most of Michigan history, a lot of people got the details of the game by hearing it recollected in a stream of consciousness just like this diary.
Early Al's Southpaw Slinger. Turned up by markusr2007 is a short diary on the career of an early Borges quarterback at Portland State. There's a highlight video in there from when PSU (NTPSU) played Boise State on the blue turf you should watch. You'll recognize the pre-snap motion right away, but the speed with which the Flutie-armed John Charles got the pass out is utterly jarring for those of us used to the typical two or three seconds Denard typically takes. I'm sure Borges has picked up a lot in the years since—or it could be a preview of what this thing is supposed to look like now…eventually…?
Inside the Box Score had one of his best this week, helped by some weirdness in the box score and a final score that didn't at all seem to match the feel of the thing we witnessed. Like losing 10 yards per kickoff and 10 yards per punt. And the names of some of the guys on Minnesota's team. Last year they had a guy named Shady Salamon. Just sayin'.
I'm told the sticker on the brim is to prevent stains from constant adjustment. Also to increase the douche factor.
If you've been following the FEI ranking along with Enjoy Life by now you're used to the swings. This time the offense improved to 47th from 56th while everything else held steady. It needs to score on somebody who doesn't give up much scoring if it wants to break that. Defense is 20th. DIABEETUS sums up my sentiments:
You know, I'm not sure I understand why FEI is useful when you predict against it (correctly) almost every week.
EJ said he'll ask Fremeau about this…very much looking forward to the answer here.
And yes he did the turnovers too, which are now at –4 for the season. I liked it when he went over each one from the game and what it did to win probability. Or was that someone else who used to do that?
Best of the Board?
JMFR GIFFING (NSFW)
Linebacker who shoots inside a blocker when he's got contain: Crazy. Linebacker who maintains outside leverage and forces the play back to help: Awesome. Linebacker who treats blocker as minor irritant while cutting off two gaps of 8 yards to either side of him: Crazy Awesome. Courtesy of Ace. Don't open at work because it says fuck.
That was it at the top. Just lots of etc. here: Metrodome Memories, Lloyd Brady revealed on ESPN, a guy who's following the team Cato June's now coaching in the D.C. metro area, and a discussion on whether legalization of pot in some western states will be a recruiting advantage (it won't be and I'm not linking it). Scooter Vaughn is starting a headphones company.
Your Moment of Zen:
What's the deal with your quarterback rotation? Who is Michigan going to see more of?
The deal with it is that Northwestern decided to get experimental when there was sort of no need to. Basically Northwestern started the year with Kain Colter at quarterback, which was working, then decided to bring in Trevor Siemian for some drives. Siemian, you see supposedly has a better arm while Colter's the better runner, which gave teams different looks, plus allowed Colter to split out to wide receiver. This eventually translated into Colter coming in for drives with lots of run plays or short passes and Siemian running drives with lots of pass plays. This eventually translated into defenses realizing what was going on and stopping it, because duh.
However, I think that idea is over: Siemian only threw one pass in the team's last game against Iowa. I think Colter's the guy going forward - he's not an awful passer, and really has the moves to make guys miss on scrambles and options. I just wish he'd been playing all-time QB all year long, because I think NU would have won one of the games we lost. Against Iowa, Colter was finally given the green light to throw a deep ball, and lo, it was like a 60 yard touchdown.
[ed: if you're reading this, Roger, do not make an attempt to decipher the picture at right. that way lies madness]
Northwestern had a really highly touted wide out corps coming into the year - the best in the conference, according to them! - with a lot of tall, quick guys with a lot of upside. It hasn't really panned out yet, but I think two years down the line that statement could be true, but right now it isn't there. That said, part of it is the balls aren't getting to them because of the QB's and another is that Northwestern's running game is so effective the pass just serves to spread the field.
Prater's a really weird story - he's obviously got the physical skills that made him the top wide receiver in the country in high school, but something just isn't right. I think he's a step slower than people think, and Northwestern's offense tends not to center around getting one receiver the ball every time it's in the air anyway. He did have a one-on-one downfield a few weeks ago and had his guy beaten, but the pass from Siemian was way underthrown.
Are you disappointed in the offense? It seems to alternate between thumping bad teams and surviving on a surfeit of fortune against good ones and Minnesota.
The dilly-dallying between Colter running and Siemian passing was really stupid and dumb and I hated it. It was cool for exactly one week that Kain Colter would split out wide and make some catches. Then teams keyed onto it and it stopped being fun, because unsuccessful gimmicks are still unsuccessful. The offense is still the highlight of Northwestern, and its excessively enjoyable to watch Colter run the option with Venric Mark, but the playcalling has lacked imagination at times.
Is the Northwestern secondary as reliably Northwestern-y as usual? I notice you've given up a ton of passing yards but the efficiency number (48th) is less depressing than normal.
A lot of the poop happened when Northwestern gave up 470 yards to Syracuse Week 1. It was everywhere, but mainly on Demetrius Dugar's side of the field. The poop, that is.
Northwestern has looked okay against the pass since, but lockdown freshman Nick VanHoose is hurt. Without him, problems? I don't know.
One of these mammals is Fitzgerald Toussaint. One is Henri, the Otter of Ennui. BUT WHICH ONE
How are the Wildcats against the run? Do you have guys who can run at tailbacks while completely unblocked and tackle? That's really all they have to do. I don't even think you have to answer this question.
After literally decades where this was not true, Northwestern seems to have a passable run defense. David Nwabuisi is a competent tackler at middle linebacker, as are Damian Proby and Chi Chi Ariguzo at the outside spots. There were some problems against Penn State - understandable, you know, like the old saying goes, Zwinek and Zordich and pray for umm... zirconia? Zagreb? - but for the most part, this is a rare Northwestern unit that likes wrapping up tackles when they're meant to be wrapped up.
Knicks 2011-2012 : Linsanity :: Knicks 2012-2013 : ???
The Knicks resign John Shurna after cutting him at the end of training camp. I mean, he wouldn't play ever, but I'd probably be just as excited about seeing him at the end of the bench every time I watched games as I was during the height of the Lin thing.
What is wrong with this damn conference? You guys are smart. Figure this out.
I ran this past some guys in the Northwestern science department, which is not an actual department. We took the Big Ten standings for the past 15 years and organized them using the Hernstrom-Cafferty Coefficient, which is something I just made up. By putting on goggles, taking some blue liquid in one graduated cylinder and pouring it into a yellow liquid contained in a beaker, as well as nodding and taking notes when the liquids changed colors, we determined that there is, in fact, a statistically significant dip in the Prager-Pellini Quotient of the 2012 Big Ten conference, which is another thing I just made up. After looking at the results, we can safely hypothesize that the main problem with the Big Ten is, beyond a preponderance of a doubt, caused by something we've coined the Cook Microprontomial Factor, which is a fancy science term for all of your dicks. The problem with the Big Ten is your dicks. Your scrawny, unceasingly pathetic dicks.
[ed: : ( ]
In other news, I have a degree from Northwestern University, but I'll be damned if you ever ask me what my GPA was. I got my transcript mailed to me in about July and I threw that nonsense in the bottom of my sock drawer before even I could read it.
Do you sometimes wish that Northwestern's journalism school didn't exist?
Yes. If Northwestern's journalism school doesn't exist, I don't apply to Northwestern. I don't apply to Northwestern, I apply some place where the sports teams don't finish up every game by scooping your non-vital organs out with a melon baller and eating them in front of your eyes, then scooping your eyes out with the same melon baller without washing it, likely getting lots of gross gastric juices inside of your brain cavity. If Northwestern did not have a journalism school, I wouldn't have to follow Northwestern sports, and therefore I'd be able to go on job interviews and talk to girls without people asking me about why I have a friggin melon-baller shaped gouge mark in my chest, dripping entrails.
[ED: I was just hoping for a Darren Rovell zinger.]
A win over Ohio, a BCS game win and a couple of killer recruiting classes have quickly escalated expectations of the Brady Hoke era. It’s time to put those expectations on ice. Not forever. But for another year or two it's safer to look at last season as the exception not the expectation.
The defense has been better than expected and I think this Greg Mattison thing is going to work out. They even have a fancy #7 ranking in total defense and a #13 scoring defense rank that’s not aided by fluck this time.
The offense has been a disappointment as Denard and Borges still seem further apart than ever, the offensive line has struggled and Toussaint hasn’t shown much when he does have a rare look at space.
I mentioned this in my season preview, but based on recruiting profiles and experience, this is the least talented Michigan team over the last 10 years [ed-S: I'm guessing attrition isn't taken into account?]. The Rodriguez recruiting bubble has arrived.
The other issue I was surprised to find this week is that Michigan is third nationally in a stat I call Garbage Points. For all of my analytics I exclude second half plays where the game is beyond two touchdowns, the approximate range at which teams deviate from their game plan and possibly individual effort in order to close out a less-competitive game. Garbage value has a pretty high correlation to team success because if you are good when it's close and in the first half you are having more drives in garbage time and probably having more success then, as well. Alabama and Kansas State are 1st and 2nd, Ohio cracks the top 10, but Michigan is the top team with a loss at #3 with a +57 EV during garage time. Lead extensions against UMass, Illinois and Minnesota all contributed to a Michigan spread that is one of the highest in the country. I have Michigan as the #28 in the country based on non-garbage time so a big spread between the two would likely indicate that Michigan has more of an issue with their official NCAA rankings being off due to extra time against over-matched teams.
Next year will be a first year starter at the most important position, which could be the newly popular Devin Gardner or five star Shane Morris. I’ll have more on this in the offseason but let’s just hope Gardner is able to win the job because the data on true freshman starting quarterbacks is emphatically troubling, even when they are elite recruits.
The defense should still continue on at a solid level, at this point the question with Mattison’s defenses is are they going to be good or great. A strong floor has been established.
Overall though, the talent/experience level isn’t going to be improved in 2013, in fact they may be worse. The upper classes will be Rodriguez’s final as well as the transition class. The elite classes will still be young enough that their contributions will likely be limited by playing time or play quality. By 2014, the team should be on par with the Carr-recruited, Rodriguez-coached teams in terms of talent and in 2015 back to the elite level of the late model Carr teams.
Michigan Talent/Experience Level By Season
Talent isn’t everything but it is certainly significant. At this point, the ability to overcome talent deficits seems more likely on defense than offense for Michigan, although the national trend is for talent to be more highly correlated to defensive success than offensive.
The other point of reference is that we aren’t talking about 2008-style drops, and especially in the current state of the Big TENNNNN! it could even mean conference championships. But don’t expect Michigan to make vast strides towards national elite until at least 2014.
Things keep coming back to eight wins. Northwestern is about 70%, Iowa 80% and Ohio 25% for the games remaining.
This week is probably Michigan’s last opening for the B1G Title game. If the Huskers survive a
trip to Happy Valley visit from Penn St it’s hard to see them losing to Iowa or Minnesota.
Another little chart I put together shows who controlled their own destiny to the B1G title game by week.
Leaders division on top, Legends on bottom.
Dumb Punt of the Week
Not a lot of suspense for this one. Mark Dantonio was staring in the face victory and chose what any man with a strong jaw does. Hands the ability to win to the other team for 19 yards. It was fourth and 2 at the Nebraska 39. 1:27 on the clock and Nebraska out of timeouts. Hand it off to the best running back in the conference, watch him get 2 yards, and that ices it. The WPA Calculator says that getting stopped gives Nebraska a 29% chance to win. A punt and touchback give Nebraska an 18% shot. Fourth and twos are successful 63% of the time, but even at 40% the return is positive. Even if you believe you can down them at the 1, going forward is at least neutral. Plus, Bell had just run five straight times in obvious running situations, gaining at least 2 yards on four of his five carries.
This week’s Ron Zook Memorial Dumb Punt of the Week goes to the refs in the Michigan St-Nebraska game for making Sparty punt the ball away.
+15% Gardner to Dileo for Michigan’s opening score
+9% Kirkwood stopped on 4th and 1 at the Michigan 41
+7% Nelson’s pass falls incomplete, forces Gophers into attempting long field goal at end of first half
-8% Gardner is intercepted at the Michigan 49
-8% Minnesota is on the board first with an 8 yard TD pass
-5% Nelson to Engel is good for 32 yards on third down
Devin Gardner, +14 EV, +30% WPA
Fitzgerald Toussaint, +4 EV (all on final run), +1%
Defense, +12 EV, +20%
Jake Ryan now 17th nationally in defender rankings, 11th in BCS players, 4th in Big Ten
Northwestern has surprisingly turned into a slightly more defensive than offensive player this year. Venric Mark is one of the nation’s most valuable running backs and the biggest threat from the Wildcat’s offense. If Michigan’s defense is up to task, the offense should be able to generate enough for a decent win.
Michigan 24 Northwestern 14
Formation notes: much, much more under-center in this game. FWIW, Minnesota had some packages where they'd put a linebacker in between two DL, as below:
Last year people told me this was a bear front, so that's what I called it. On short yardage Minnesota would do this to both sides of the line, so that's double bear. As always, lingo may not be compatible with your local football lingo-knowing guy and only exists to provide extended conversations with Seth about what the hell I meant when I classified X as Y.
Also here's this guy again:
Substitution notes: Gardner the whole way at QB, Rawls got some playing time, Smith was back, and the line was exactly how it always is. Burzynski got a few goal line plays on that package where they line up Lewan and Schofield next to each other.
The WR rotation was about what you'd expect as well, except there was a lot more Jerald Robinson. He has apparently inherited most of Devin's snaps.
[AFTER THE JUMP: so how was Devin really, and ARGH runs ARGH]