Niko Porikos grew up in an NTDP billet home. Cool story.
The season so far in terms of defensive tackle size:
- Aug. 31: 5-11, 290 lbs (Travonte Boles); 5-11, 284 lbs (Jabari Bothwell)
- Sept. 7: 6-3, 326 lbs (Louis Nix)
- Sept. 14: 6-2, 266 lbs (Nico Caponi); 5-11, 293 lbs (Cody Grice)
- Sept. 21: 6-5, 323 lbs (Shamar Stephen); 6-3, 297 lbs (Angelo Pruitt)
- Sept. 28: BYE
- Oct. 5: 6-6, 311 lbs (Rashede Hageman); 6-5, 290 lbs (Cameron Botticelli)
- Oct. 12: 6-3, 330 lbs (DaQuan Jones); 6-4, 310 lbs (Austin Johnson)
- Oct. 17: 6-5, 312 lbs (Ralphael Green); 6-2, 300 lbs (Adarius Rayner)
- Oct. 24: BYE
Highly metaphorical plot synopsis of Thor 1
Thor and Loki are brothers. Thor, the elder of the two, has been groomed to ascend to the throne of Asgard, while Loki has lived his life in the back seat. This state of affairs engenders bitterness and jealousy in Loki. To make matters worse Loki discovers he was adopted. He hatches a plot to banish his brother, kill his father, and do all sorts of bad things on his way to power.
Thor eventually figures out what’s going on, overcomes Loki’s plot, and fights Loki in a CGI-tastic battle sequence that may or may not actually be a Skittles commercial. That’s when Loki has a moment of candor: “I never wanted the throne. I only ever wanted to be your equal!” Moments later, he loses the fight and falls into a wormhole.
Whereupon Thor exclaims, “Loki, NOOOOOOO!”
The season of infinite Schadenfreude*
2012 was a great season to watch Michigan State football. Between LeVeon Bell’s disinterest in requiring an offensive line and the receivers’ disinterest in catching footballs, the Spartans offense was a season-long etude in one-man football. Throw in Andrew Maxwell’s live YPA stats and you had a pretty great drinking game.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan State’s defense probably found a lot of personal meaning in the tale of Sisyphus from Greek mythology. I’m totally kidding. Most of them are like, “I don’t know what you’re talking about / I got rid of mine with penicillin.”
Highlights of their season include trailing Eastern Michigan for three quarters, trailing Indiana for three quarters, blowing a fourth-quarter lead against Iowa, and blowing a fourth-quarter lead against Nebraska.
Michigan fans will remember that last part as the day it momentarily stopped being funny.
At season’s end, all fingers pointed to the offense, so offensive coordinator Dan Roushar got fired. I’m not sure if that was warranted. I didn’t watch them that closely, but I don’t think you can fault the OC too much when the offensive line is a lemon and Nike is coating their Pro-Combat receiver gloves with teflon. Add in the QB transition and losing most of their previous playmakers to the NFL … Whatever. A witch was required. They burned her.
This is where it gets hilarious. The results of a diligent coaching search turned up Dave Warner (MSU QB coach) and Jim Bollman (YTJB). Warner got promoted, maybe by mistake, so then Bollman got hired a few weeks later because -- who the hell knows. Synergy. Cross-platform initiatives. Verisimilitude.
The two are still figuring out how to split OC duties, since one guy alone couldn’t handle the neural load of the Spartans offensive Jaeger. They will enter a Drift this fall and become one, which means Warner will emerge at some point from the coordinator box shaking uncontrollably, with blown pupils, a bloody nose, and images of Joe Bauserman seared indelibly into his mind. This is a great and totally convincing premise for plot and character development.
Michael Bay Guillermo del Toro is the best.
*Except for the Nebraska game, where choking away the game to spite Michigan’s chances for a division title was the Spartiest thing ever. I bet the most common cause of diabetes in East Lansing is “UM fan wanted to borrow sugar.”
Nobody deserves a second chance like QB Andrew Maxwell. Poor guy put it on the money more often than not only to see the ball clang off his receivers’ facemasks. Maybe that arm strength thing really is overrated, because clearly Michigan State’s receivers much preferred the softness of Kirk Cousins’s balls.
Of course, after suffering through a season of awful receiving and crappy pass protection, nothing says “thanks for taking things in stride” like a good old-fashioned QB controversy. Maxwell (52.5%, 2606 yards, 5.8 ypa, 13 TD, 9 INT) has to fend off Connor Cook, a dual-threat guy who makes up with size and spunk what he lacks in arm. In the spring game Cook went 10-26 for a little over 200 yards and a score. Yeah, had the receivers not been wearing their Teflon-coated gloves, Cook’s completion rate would have been higher. Had the DBs not borrowed gloves from the receivers, though, his INT rate would also have been higher, too.
I think Maxwell holds onto his job, but it’s not going to be easy. Bollman loves him some noodle-armed scramblers, so it’s likely that Cook will be auditioned as a “change-of-pace” player until Bollman gives up on reincarnating Troy Smith.
On the receiving end, WR Aaron Burbridge is the primary argument for having a QB who can actually throw. A late-emerging star last season, Burbridge is a guy you may remember as the borderline five-star recruit Michigan was after in a bad way until academics became an issue. As a Spartan, he lived up to his billing, making a bunch of highlight-reel catches over a three-game stretch in October. His production waned in November for some reason, but he came back strong in the spring game with five catches for 113 yards. He’s the preseason favorite to be MSU’s offensive MVP.
If Maxwell loses his job, however, Burbridge will probably be relegated to blocking duties, where he will join fellow returning starters Keith Mumphery, Tony Lippett, and Bennie Fowler. Their lead hands will.
Michigan State’s run game will go from firing depleted uranium shells (Bell) from a BB gun (2012 OL) to shooting frozen chickens (whoever the RB is this year) from a cannon (2013 OL). Yeah, I rocked the SAT analogies back when the SAT had analogies. The injured offensive linemen, RT Fou Fonoti and C Travis Jackson, are doing dandy these days, so things are looking good up front. In the backfield, not so much. As of the last time I read about MSU’s running backs, I’m pretty sure the guy getting the most hype was a RS freshman linebacker (Riley Bullough). Nothing has happened since spring ball, so I’m guessing that’s still accurate.
There’s a lot of suck written all over the Spartans offense, which is ironic because all Michigan State is asking from that side of the ball is to not suck. It’s a very reasonable request. Like, don’t go three and out every drive. Find the end zone every once in a while. Try to cross the 50 yard line.
Because if they can improve even a tiny bit, the team will be in good shape. After all, last year they lost five games by a combined 13 points thanks to their murderous
Spartan Pride -- operationally defined by flexing when you're down 49-7 to Alabama.
Things sure look a lot different over here. Where did all the suck go? Is this a different team?
It definitely deserves to be on a different team, and I bet Pat Narduzzi has been quietly fomenting ideas of secession within his ranks last September. When civil war breaks out, his defense would win easily (Narduzzi vs. Bollman, is there even a question?), and then they could join Northwestern and rule the B1G as a dual hegemony comprised exclusively of two-star recruits, scouting services be damned.
Back to reality, which is clearly not as cool as the alternate one in my head, I think what we’re going to see from Michigan State’s defense is more of the same. Since 2010, Narduzzi has proven his success to be completely sustainable. For Michigan fans, this is all very unfortunate. If he is interested I would be happy to write him a letter of recommendation for whichever head coach position opens up next. Likely Illinois.
The Spartans return everyone on defense except for DE Will Gholston and CB Johnny Adams. I know, right? OMG, 10 starters returning from a top-10 defense! It gets worse. Although Adams was a really good player -- three-time All B1G -- and will probably be missed to an extent, Michigan State has no lack for corners, and the other guy, Darqueze Dennard (52 tackles, 7 PBUs, 3 INTs), was better anyway. Meanwhile Gholston had the pass rush ability of Jordan Kovacs. That almost sounds like a knock on Kovacs. Five bucks says whoever Narduzzi finds as the new WDE will be more productive than Gholston.
Anyway, let’s just get the horrible part of the preview over with. A-gap extraordinaire LB Max Bullough (111 tackles, 12.5 TFLs) will continue to hang out in opponent backfields and make blocking schemes look silly; he is everything we hope Joe Bolden will be someday. Surface-to-Air Missile Denicos Allen (79 tackles, 10 TFLs, 3 sacks) will latch onto anything with a heat signal, which means on any given play he’ll either blow a guy up or run himself out of the play. WLB Taiwan Jones, who won the job from incumbent Chris Norman (38 tackles, 5.5 TFLs) halfway through last season, will be there to mop up the remains.
I’m watching these guys against Wisconsin, and it’s like Wisconsin’s offensive line forgets how to block properly:
The other thing to take away from the Wisconsin video is that the defensive line doesn’t necessarily do a whole lot on its own, but it does a good job of occupying blockers long enough for the linebackers to make plays. I think ever since Jerel Worthy left, the line’s production has lost the snap-jumping edge that made them elite.
They are still pretty good. With the return of strongside end Marcus Rush (38 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 2 sacks) and tackles James Kittredge (14 tackles, 4.5 TFL) and Tyler Hoover (missed a chunk of 2012 with an injury), holding steady, last year’s production should be the bottom line. Ramping up the pass rush will be the item No. 1 in a short bucket list of things to improve. Otherwise, it ain’t broke. There’s no need to fix anything, not with the linebackers they have and Narduzzi’s penchant for blitzing them until your backfield is broken.
Even if QB pressure doesn’t always hit home, the coverage should hold up. Opposite Dennard will likely be newcomer Trae Waynes, another member of the two-star mafia likely to end up on an all-conference list somewhere just to spite everyone. At safety, Michigan State will feature multi-year starters Isaiah Lewis (80 tackles, 6 PBUs, 2 INTs) and Kurtis Drummond (53 tackles, 4 PBUs, 2 INTs).
Happy little ray of hope: their offense.
This team is kind of like: Sisyphus and his rock.
Vs. Michigan: The game is in East Lansing this year, which is the opposite of ideal for everyone involved except for Dantonio and Narduzzi, who figure a home game is when they can tell their players to do whatever they want, like so:
State had about 56 or 57 yards per game to penalties last year, a [Ed-H: Hey Seth, did you have a stroke?]
Extracurriculars aside, gameplanning against Michigan State’s defense should involve a lot of heavy sighing with regard to the ground game. Running between the tackles will be a lot like buying a lottery ticket the day after someone hits the jackpot: it should be done only to remind ourselves that downs are valuable and we are stupid. I know, I know, “the winner in this rivalry game always has more yards on the ground. Hurr durrr.” Did I mention that MSU’s best tailback is a linebacker?
Where Michigan can succeed is through the air. The OL should be pretty good at keeping the pocket clean, and Devin seems poised to pick apart defenses provided that he’s not scrambling for his life. As good as the Spartans DBs are, I think they’re lacking a touch of athleticism, and they don’t seem to stick to receivers as well as they should.
Defensively, coverage will be key. The passing game has a lot of potential, and as much as the receivers hate catching passes most of the time, I’m pretty sure they caught every single one last year against Michigan. Giving up big plays in road games can be devastating, and in the absence of Kovacs, the Wolverines will have to do everything they can to ensure that Burbridge and co. don’t get the crowd going.
- Western Michigan
- South Florida
- Youngstown State
- @Notre Dame
Outlook: 9-3 overall, 6-2 B1G
- Wins: WMU, USF, YSU, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, @Illinois, Minnesota
- Losses: @Notre Dame
- Random Number Generator: Michigan, @Nebraska, @Northwestern
You know what's weird about putting together these basketball recruiting things irregularly? Nothing happens. Because we're talking about a class of 3-4 kids instead of 20, these things meander down the great Mississippi, leisurely taking in a vague quote here, a scouting report there, without seeming to go anywhere. I mean, Trevon Bluiett still maintains he has a list of 24 schools or something. Takin' her easy, basketball recruiting.
In any case, things that sort of happened…
This is what the current roster looks like for 2014, assuming Robinson and McGary are in suits on draft day:
PG: Walton (so), Albrecht (jr)
SG: Stauskas (jr)
SF: Irvin (so), LeVert (jr)
PF: Donnal (so), Bielfeldt (jr)
C: Horford (sr), Doyle (fr)
Donnal may play the post; Irvin may be big enough to be a Beilein 4. Even if Donnal ends up at the 4, it's going to be a wing-heavy class. Michigan is going to skip the PG spot, has Ricky Doyle as a developmental big, and will probably take three guys who can play the 2, 3, or 4.
They could add four more players without any unexpected attrition; more likely they'll add three and bank one for a talented 2015 class. Michigan projects to have just one senior in 2014, Horford, so taking a five-man class this year would unduly restrict Michigan's ability to flog the championship game appearance to kids whose recruitments are just starting.
Leaving an open slot in in 2014 plus Horford plus an assumption of at least one piece of attrition (Irvin, Stauskas, or Walton blowing up to NBA early entry levels, Bielfeldt not getting a fifth year, someone transferring because of PT issues) would let that 2015 class reach three top quality guys: a post, a point guard, and someone who is very good at something else.
Bluiett is not making any decisions hastily
I think I just flipped my metaphor from leisurely polin' down the river to Ents, but whatever. As mentioned in UV, IN SF Trevon Bluiett has not dropped Butler after Brad Stevens's departure. That can't help, though, and Yogi Ferrell's mom thinks his list got a shakeup:
Yes, Yogi Ferrell's mom has special insight into Bluiett's though processes. Shut up.
With Scout's Brian Snow popping in on the GBW message board to proclaim he'd be "shocked" if Bluiett ended up anywhere other than Butler or Michigan, that would be a good thing. Bluiett's reputedly a guy who would like to stay close to home—Butler would be very close—so if anyone else gets involved it would likely be the in-state schools or maybe a Louisville or something. The 247 Crystal Ball flipped towards Michigan recently, FWIW.
Devin Booker remains Devin Booker, and will always be the same until probably November. He told Sam Webb that he made it down to Michigan's camp out of "loyalty" recently:
Sam Webb: I saw you last month when you were at the Michigan camp. You had another camp you were going to be going to a week later, and you had just gotten home. You get right home… come over to Michigan… why did you even make it over?
Devin Booker: “I think it’s more of a loyalty thing. Michigan’s been there since 8th grade, and a lot of my friends are going down with me. It’s just overall a good time; I can use it as an unofficial visit, and I’ve basically seen it all there, but just talking to the coaching staff, you know, it was good to go down there. "
Booker's been hanging out with Drake Harris for "like three straight weekends" as he cools his heels in Grand Rapids for the summer with his mom. He claims he has a top group but won't tell anyone.
Booker is headed to Kentucky for their Midnight Madness event. With Duke and UNC taking commits at SG, the Wildcats are likely the top threat.
CA SF/PF Kameron Chatman was just interviewed by Scout:
UConn, Oregon, Washington, and Michigan are the only schools he mentions as offers. Michigan was "good," but with positive inflection. Chatman also said his Oregon offer was "good." You see what I'm saying? About the things not happening? I mean.
Maybe a positive thing: Chatman is apparently buds with Devin Booker, and while they haven't talked much about playing together you'd have to think Booker dropping to Michigan would be a feather in Michigan's cap. Chatman plans a decision in the fall.
Pipe dreaming at the four
Sam Webb talked to WI PF Kevon Looney, who says he wants to get down to a top five this month. Sounds like Michigan will make that list($):
Sam Webb: You mentioned that Michigan was really a school that was coming on with you. Where does Michigan stand with you at this point?
Kevon Looney: “Michigan is in that top tier of schools. Michigan, Duke, Florida, Michigan State, Tennessee, Georgetown, they all in the top tier right now.”
Sam Webb: How did they get in there because it seemed like for a minute there that they were on the outside looking in? What was it about them that made them get in there?
Kevon Looney: “Michigan was always there. They had actually slowed down their calling and stop coming out. I don’t know what they thought. Then he picked it back up, Coach Beilein came to a high school in the playoffs and since that they have been staying more consistent.”
Looney has only been to Wisconsin and Tennessee, doesn't mention the Badgers in his top tier, and went to Tennessee mostly because he was in the area for a funeral. He plans on taking all of his officials. Looney was similarly coy with UMHoops.
More realistic options at Michigan's stretch four include OH PF Vince Edwards, who is still down to Michigan and Purdue, but also mentioning that Louisville is vaguely interested. Purdue sites think the Boilers may be pulling out in front:
Edwards opened things up a bit in the spring when he said he wanted to see if any other schools were going to show interest. One school that has is Louisville. To what extent, nobody really knows. They are pretty full for 2014 and have a couple guys higher on their board at Vince’s position.
Purdue on the other hand might be starting to take a slight lead, if you could call it that. Edwards stated earlier this summer that he would like to have the process over before his senior season begins in November. He also said it could be anytime between now and then so anything could change.
Edwards has repeatedly stated that he wants to be shown the proverbial love by whoever he picks, and Michigan seems to be diversifying its options at the four, so I'm with that guy.
A couple of unoffered guys are also in the mix. Jaylen Johnson is from Ypsi, has a MSU offer, and blew up at the LeBron James thing. He has "more skill than he's given credit for," sayeth the recruiting analysts there, which makes me think he's more of a fit for a pound-the-rock team like MSU than Michigan, which prefers skill and shooting to raw power at the 4. I mean:
Johnson played with one of the best motors out of any of the bigs in the camp. He was constantly making an impact on the game with his rebounding, defending, passing and scoring.
His ball skills are a little raw, but the potential is there. Just his effort defensively and on the boards is enough to help any team win games.
Doesn't sound like a fit.
Meanwhile, MO PF Jordan Barnett visited and is waiting on Beilein to see him in person to offer. He's a bit undersized at 6'7" if he's not a skill guy, and it doesn't sound like he is.
2015 point guard derby
The race to be the next Derrick Walton is on. The wooed and the wooing:
- Jalen Brunson (offer). Offered on the 23rd of June, Brunson is the top PG in the 2015 class according to ESPN. Michigan is currently… yes… I can say this… the biggest offer in his list, with Purdue, UVA, and Xavier following. Illinois and MSU are also pursuing hard. Brunson also talked to Scout, saying "Yes, I am" in a beautiful deadpan when asked if he is having fun, and claims no favorites. He's waiting until next November to decide.
- Jalen Coleman (offer). It's raining Jalens. Coleman may fit in the Miscellaneous Very Good Player category as a 6'3" combo guard and may not be mutually exclusive with other pure points, but since we know Beilein really likes his height at the SG spot I'm guessing he would be brought in as the point. Coleman, named after Jalen Rose (you are old), was "ecstatic" to get a Michigan offer.
- Sedrick Barefield. Barefield doesn't have an offer just yet but will get one the moment he steps on campus. He lives and California and is playing a typically heavy AAU schedule, so that visit might have to wait until fall.
- Corey Sanders. Sanders is the running mate of misc.-very-good player Dwayne Bacon, a near five-star in the class. While he's the lowest-rated of Michigan's potential additions, he has been impressing on the AAU circuit with his athleticism. Sam Webb just projected Sanders and Bacon to end up in the class—apparently they've added a play called "Michigan" to their AAU team's playbook. Let us consider where the program is now vis a vis the Aneurysm of Leadership.
Any of these options is kind of good. IL PG Hyron Edwards is out there still, but since he's fulfilled all the offer criteria, even attending the elite camp, but has not gotten an offer he seems to be a Plan B.
Sanders is the most intriguing/weird/dangerous/could-be-a-spy option. Anyone who sees Sanders's highlight video…
…knows that his handle his capital-T Tight and his game is capital-S Salty, which may be an artifact of an internet highlight video. But it's also quite a departure from the usual Michigan recruit highlight video, which shows the player working out without fanfare for 12 hours straight, carrying a trainer who screams profantities at him in Tagalog while eating ice cream the player himself has never and will never taste. Hard men, these point guards.
Sanders brings athleticism and heaps of swagger, but can he shoot and can he actually play point guard? Is it worth the risk if he brings Bacon along?
If Brunson sticks to his timetable I bet someone else jumps on the Michigan opportnity first, FWIW.
2015 post grabbage
Michigan seems strong with NV C Stephen Zimmerman, who just moved to #1 overall in the 2015 class to Scout and is enamored with the possibility of being Mitch McGary 2.0, except taller and (necessarily) less adorable. They're also chasing WI C Diamond Stone, who talked to Sam Webb. Stone mentioned Michigan in a small group of planned visits:
Sam Webb: Any plans on getting out to any other schools this summer or is that going to wait until the school year to get out on some more visits?
Diamond Stone: “I’m trying to figure out what Midnight Madness I’m going. Coach Calipari asked me to go to his Midnight Madness. So I don’t even know. It’ll probably be Michigan, Marquette, Wisconsin.”
Michigan hasn't had a Madness event since the first year they made the tourney, FWIW, but that's a quality group to be mentioned in: two local schools (easy to visit) and Kentucky. Stone was already on campus for the MSU football game last year, as well. Kentucky is obviously a huge problem, but if both these guys end up down to Kentucky and Michigan… well, Kentucky and only Kentucky can apparently lock both down. But you've got to think that they go to different places so they can be The Man.
2015 miscellaneous very good player
Depending on who you talk to, OH SG Luke Kennard is either a favorite or a middling shot to be miscellaneous very good player in the 2015 class. Michigan fans have been hearing about him since he was a freshman who shot a lot like John Shurna—oddly but effectively. Michigan has been on him forever-ever:
Bales recalled explaining to a Michigan graduate assistant, “You know, this is going to sound crazy, and I don’t know how good he is, but we think he’s pretty special. We have an eighth-grader who is going to be a freshman that you should take a look at.”
By Franklin’s second game at the camp, one of Michigan’s staffers was watching Kennard play. His third game, the entire Wolverines staff was watching. Like that, his recruitment had begun, even if an offer from Michigan, one of the many schools recruiting him, didn’t come until June 15 of this year.
“At the time, Luke had not received any offers,” Kennard’s father, Mark, said. “He had just gotten out of eighth grade.”
Kennard's been adding more bounce to his game consistently and ranks inside the top 50 everywhere you care to look; he picked up his offer about a month ago, and said the requisite things:
"We enjoy doing that and being there," Mr. Kennard said. "They've got great facilities.
"There's no doubt Michigan will be there [at the end]. They were the first ones that had kind of recruited Luke when we can to team camp his freshman year. That was kind of how it started."
There is of course Dwayne Bacon, Sanders's potential package-deal bro.
I didn't have the heart to remove Becky's photo from the top of the front page. Weird thing: the (presumed) student equipment manager is in shorts and a tee but Brady has both slacks and a jacket on. I clearly remember Carr was wearing just a white polo all game. Was Brady really jacketed while the other coaches remained unfettered? At 5:27 on the tape you can see long-sleeved Brady walking behind angry Lloyd trying to explain to SEC officials that hitting is allowed in football. Weird. Diaries.
Must Read: Eight Plays and Counting. I'll let EGD announce his latest thing:
This series examines the probable individual matchups Michigan would face against particular 2013 opponents on one of Michigan’s key running plays and one of its key passing plays, as well as defensively against a couple of the opponent’s key plays
So for example he'll take the play at right—the base 26 Power R, a common variation of Michigan's "Power O" (2 means RB carries it, 6 means they're going in the 6-hole, ie between the T and TE, and R means right)—and go through the personnel matchups on that play to see which team has an aggregate advantage. On the above Michigan's likely wins: Lewan on Prince Shembo. Things that seem to favor ND: Braden pulling to find WLB Dan Fox, down-blocks of Jack Miller on Sheldon Day, Kalis on Louis Nix, and Schofield on Tuitt, Joe Kerridge finding Danny Spond for a kick-out block, and Funchess executing a double-team on Tuitt then moving to the 2nd level to get to ND's middle linebacker. Advantage: Notre Dame, though I should point out a down block is one of the easier to accomplish since you start with leverage.
The Notre Dame one has three more plays: a PA pass from our offense, and then Michigan's D versus the Irish's base zone run and one of Kelly's favorite passing plays that we're guaranteed to see because it picks on Jarrod Wilson. Yesterday he posted a second one, which goes over UConn (M's power left and PA deep flood, and UConn's curls vs. Cov2 and 4-verts vs. Cov3). Again, these are things that schematically try to pick on Wilson. Part of that is there aren't many other unknowns on the defense, but I think it's becoming pretty clear where a lot of our attention is going to be early in the season. Prophesy: Wilson will look bad early in the season as offenses consistently do things that try to make him look so. In fact if he doesn't we may have something really nice there.
By the way EGD also updated his Non-Conference Recruiting Watch series a few weeks back. The guy with the Hail to the Thief avatar wins a trophy.
ESS-EEE-SEE! In people having fun with numbers you can find online, stopthewnba pulled January bowl data to show how the Big Ten has fared overall and against the SEC in all those virtual road games. It's not as bad as you might think, except when it comes to Rose Bowls (2-12 in the documented span) and times when a national championship is on the line or an erstwhile title contender dropped down into our range (USC vs. Michigan twice, MSU vs. Alabama). Something isn't right in his spreadsheet since I know for a fact that Northwestern isn't 2-and-anything in bowl games unless the data go back to the 1940s.
More interesting perhaps was maizeonblueaction's look at demographics since 1990 in Big Ten states versus SEC ones. In the comments EGD (man, that guy this week) suggested dividing the numbers by how many major conference (ACC/Big Ten/Big XII/Pac12/SEC plus Notre Dame) teams it has to support. So I did that, except I combined Indiana and Illinois since Chicago is really home territory for the Indiana schools. Result:
|State||Conf||Big5 Teams||2012 Pop (est.)||Share|
|Florida||SEC/ACC||Florida, Miami (YTM), FSU||19,317,568||6,439,189|
|Pennsylvania||BigTen||Penn St, Pitt||12,763,536||6,381,768|
|Texas||SEC/B12||Texas, A&M, TT, TCU, Baylor||26,059,203||5,211,841|
|Michigan||BigTen||Michigan, Michigan St||9,883,360||4,941,680|
|Illinois & Indiana||B1G/Ind||ND, NW, Ill, Pur, Indiana||19,412,589||3,882,518|
|South Carolina||SEC/ACC||S.C., Clemson||4,723,723||2,361,862|
|Iowa||B1G/B12||Iowa, Iowa St||3,074,186||1,537,093|
|Mississippi||SEC||Ole Miss, Miss State||2,984,926||1,492,463|
The demographic shifts matter but not as much as people seem to think: the part of the population that will disproportionately devote their lives to football isn't the part that recently moved to Atlanta or Nashville to work for an insurance company or relocated to Florida because the weather's easier on their joints. Mississippi can support more and better football programs than New Jersey can because life in Mississippi is more likely to suck so hard that people are willing to do anything to their bodies to get those bodies out of there. Not so much for recent Jersey/St. Louis/Philly transplants, but Ohio State's position in Ohio is a major advantage indeed.
This is bound to change now. LSAClassof2000 looked at red zone offense in the Big Ten since 2008: Michigan is second to last in overall success rate to the Hoosiers until you add Maryland and Rutgers, both worse. Less than a quarter of Michigan's red zone trips ended with a passing touchdown in that time. Our 2009 (converting just 2/3rds of possible points) matches Indiana's 2008 for most brutal ever. However this has improved dramatically every year since, and the 2012 team was really good at converting red zone trips into points (5.28 per drive), though getting there (3.54 times per game, about 40th percentile among data points) was a problem. In the comments I resorted the data to see where Michigan's teams fell. Wisconsin had the top three red zone teams. Michigan's 2012 was 12th out of 70. Suggestion for further study: I bet you this correlates to experience of the starting quarterback.
Etc. The Big Ten meets the Big Lebowski—I didn't find the comparisons all that close. K.o.k.Law is reminiscing about going to the basketball championship game. Moderator JustinGoBlue is MGoProfiled by M-Wolverine. Solar team's new car and discussion of semiconductor theory.
[Jump: Best of the Board, Zen]
This was sent to me from HTTV volunteer copy editor Becky Long, who in 1998 was on the sidelines as UM cheerleader Becky Long. The wide-angle:
Click gets you full size, which is just 300kb or so (to a 1998 hard drive that's huge) but plenty for your need. That need is to cast this image in your head until the most Brady Hoke thing ever has claimed its rightful place next to Don't Make Lloyd Angry, and the Bo-Canham-Bump Press Conference in the Hall of Before-He-Was…
To my knowledge, until now the best Hokepoint from the Before-Time known to the internet was that overused thing with the uncharacteristic headset. Bonus: We now have a photo to use when we talk about Rob Renes and genetic nose tackles.
That is all.
The most Buckeye. What is the most Ohio State thing? Is it chasing off a touted linebacker recruit with your tilty-head child porn whatnots?
That's pretty Buckeye. Is it getting caught pleasuring yourself in the library by Carl Monday? Is it punching an opposing player because you're mad?
I think the kid who named his tumor "Michigan" is the most Ohio State thing.
Grant Reed is only 12, but the young Ohio State fan has scored a major victory over “Michigan.”
It’s what he named his brain tumor.
According to a report by NBC affiliate WCMH, Reed was recently released from Nationwide Children’s hospital in Columbus, Ohio, after completing chemotherapy in a two-year fight with the brain tumor. Doctors give him a good prognosis.
Congratulations, kid. You are both alive and the most Buckeye, at least until a guy wearing an Andy Katzenmoyer jersey poops on Desmond Howard live on Gameday, then punches out Herbstreit for being a "fake Buckeye."
MOST BUCKEYE RANKINGS
- Naming brain tumor "Michigan"
- "Everybody kills"
- Committing insurance fraud with the vehicle some booster provided you
- Tilty-head child-porn selfie fetish that chases away Alex Anzalone
- Library jackin'
- Dymonte Thomas is totally gonna flip you guys
McGary smash. GRIII and Mitch McGary are at the LeBron Skills academy with about a zillion other dudes both in college and high school, and it sounds like McGary is following up his breakout tournament with consistent, varied production. Sam Webb($):
Mitch McGary – “The Monster” looks like a million bucks – figuratively and literally. The sophomore power forward checked in at a toned 6-10.5, 266-lbs. with an 83.5-inch wingspan. His activity level stayed consistently high at times he seemed to catch his opponents off guard with better than expected lateral agility bounce. … While his overall activity level on both ends continued to stand out, his 11-point barrage over a couple of minutes was the true highlight. The run started off with a pick& roll clinic. On three occasions McGary lost Wilson after setting a solid screen and diving to the basket for a bucket. When Wilson finally decided to stay with him, McGary stuck a three. A couple of possessions later he caught the ball on the right elbow, pivoted to face the rim, then calmly stuck a jumper over Wilson’s outstretched arm.
I be like dang.
BONUS IS MITCH MCGARY STILL MITCH MCGARY CHECK
The only bad mark on McGary’s report card came when he attempted a heat check three toward the end of the game. The big fella dribbled into a jumper a full step beyond the three-point line. It was an air-ball, but after everything else he did in the game, you’ll give him that one.
Yup. Ride the lion, buddy.
For his part, GRIII wasn't standing out like McGary. Low usage from the guy in a camp setting is no surprise since he's so deferential; hopefully in a more regimented team setting he can step up.
The least committed. Rivals article on ever-accelerating pace of non-binding verbal commitments "raises issues," but is mostly notable for the best redefinition of commitment ever. Shea Patterson is a 2016 dual threat QB who just moved to Louisiana, and he is in some sort of relationship with Arizona:
"Right now I am committed to Arizona, and if I don't hear anything from any other school for the next three years I will be happy to go to Arizona, but since we moved things have been different," he said.
Shea Patterson's commitment status is "it's complicated." Tulane, get that letter in the mail and he's yours.
FWIW, decommitments are not actually a problem worth solving. Delaying Signing Day until after coach firing season prevents a lot of guys from being locked into LOIs they don't want to honor, and gives everyone time to find the best place for them to be. Moving up those timelines does nothing but create worse matches between players and programs.
If you do want to help this non-problem be less of an issue to raise, two things: allow earlier official visits, so that more kids can get the lay of the land earlier, and create a non-binding pre-LOI that prevents other coaches from contacting anyone who signs up for it but can be withdrawn at any time by the player.
The dynamic pricing thing. A long time coming and I don't really have an issue with it since it allows Michigan to recoup some money that was otherwise being left on the table without increasing season ticket or student prices. I mean:
“They (the consumers) are going to pay more anyways,” Lawrence said. “It’s just a question of who’s making the money? Is it the school or is it the broker?”
As far as ways to increase revenue go, this one is much better than annoying me with max volume exhortations to rent Michigan Stadium for a wedding. Also, it increases the feasibility of interesting nonconference home and homes because the more attractive the opponent the more ticket revenue acquired.
This, on the other hand…
On Monday, Purdue University announced that it too would use dynamic pricing for football season.
…will result in Purdue tickets being exchanged for pogs.
Etc.: Devin Funchess is on the Mackey watch list. Also on the Mackey watch list: you. I only talk about coaches who coach for Michigan but Rich Rodriguez in a nutshell: "Well, I hear a lot of times people say 'Oh, we gotta have a guy that's a game manager,' and I don't know what that is."
NCAA promises not to send its goons after a current player who joins the O'Bannon lawsuit, because its goons all left to work at Auburn anyway. Both of these teams should be named "Northwestern." Michigan picks up a 2015 forward commit, seems like a second or third liner. Excellent take on the O'Bannon case. Hanging with Trey Burke at the draft. Say bye to Nebraska.
A BRAVE NEW WORLD in which Michigan… wait for it… plays Wisconsin.
You're sure you're in the Big Ten again?
Via Kyle Meinke:
|Penn State||@ Indiana|
|Illinois||@ Penn State|
|@ Iowa||@ Maryland|
Crossover opponents are Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois in year one and Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in year two. Odd that they're switching up two of those but not the third.
That 2016 schedule has a couple of tentpole-ish games against Wisconsin and maybe Penn State depending on how quickly they climb out from under the rubble, but overall it is a very, very gross home schedule again. Nonconference opponents are Hawaii, Colorado, and Ball State. Those two tentpole-ish games are the whole season.
They may have to start selling tickets in two-year chunks. That's a joke, Dave Brandon. It is not a real thing.
The 2017 game at Wisconsin will be the first time Michigan has gone to Madison since 2009(!). Hello vaguely spliced together not-conference.
Meinke also notes that the 2017 Purdue game is on September 23rd, but that is the fourth week of the season so… uh… yeah, conference games are going to be going on then.
None of this will actually transpire because Michigan will spend the 2016 season on the moon once the Sea of Tranquility is added to the conference.