this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
Remember that one run that maize Michigan had against blue Michigan? It'll come to you: it was the one when the offense gained yards by running the ball. I mean forward yards, not the sideways stretch things. You know the one on the very first snap of the Spring Game that Ace giffed:
There wasn't much else from the Spring Game to pull out so I thought it would be fun to pick this one apart as a very vanilla example of Harbaugh's Power offense, and Durkin's gap-attacking with speed defense, and where various players are in it.
I also disagree with Brian on what caused this to happen. He gave RJS credit for fighting A.J. Williams to a draw and blamed Desmond Morgan for biting the running back's initial outside cut. Those things happened, but in the context of Durkin's defense I think Jenkins-Stone is mostly at fault for not being aggressive enough. In 4-3 world a tie is a loss.
What the offense was thinking. Here's the design:
This is Power O, the most base play of Harbaughffense, from a base formation for running it. The first play of the game, there was nothing tricky about it—the offense lined up where they snapped except (off camera) Chesson went in motion. You may remember this play from such offenses as Stanford under Harbaugh, and what Borges and Hoke wanted to run with two years of eligibility left on Denard Robinson. Well-defended it ends however far down the field the offense's bodies managed to move the defense's bodies. This wasn't well defended, as we shall see after…
The Tipping Point?
Is Desmond Fitzpatrick the next to drop? [Fuller]
Michigan added a trio of football commits and even a basketball commit over the last few days. If you missed them, here are links to their respective Hello posts:
- Four-star 2016 IN QB Brandon Peters
- Three-star 2016 MI FB/ILB David Reese
- Three-star 2016 AL RB Kingston Davis
- 2015 German F Moritz Wagner (hoops)
Jim Harbaugh got himself a backfield in one weekend, and it's a very Harbaugh backfield: Peters is a 6'4" quarterback with decent athleticism, Davis is a load of a running back at 6'1", 230 pounds, and Reese would bring a linebacker's build and mentality to the fullback position.
Where Reese ends up is still in question; he told GBW's Kyle Bogenschutz he'll start out on defense despite reports that indicated Michigan was recruiting him at fullback, and he'll get a head start on figuring out which position he'll play ($):
“Coach Harbaugh said I could play any position and wherever my heart is at I can play. I’ll be playing linebacker. If I don’t start at linebacker I’d be open to fullback.”
“I can see myself playing anywhere on the defense,” added Reese. “Inside, outside linebacker. Just to be around that energy and I’ll be an early graduate as well.”
Peters, meanwhile, told Sam Webb he knew "a couple weeks ago" that he wanted to go to Michigan, and he's not shying away from the crowded depth chart at quarterback ($):
“I know there are a bunch of quarterbacks there right now, but that doesn’t stop me. You’re just going to have to go there and you’re going to have to compete and earn a spot. That’s fine with me. I love to compete. Also at the same time, it is a special opportunity to play for Coach Harbaugh. I think things are going to really start going in the right direction and I really want to be a part of it. I loved it there. The atmosphere was awesome. The fans are awesome as well.”
Peters added that he's "definitely" going to recruit other prospects, starting with in-state receivers Donnie Corley and Desmond Fitzpatrick.
Speaking of Fitzpatrick, many expected he'd join the weekend commitment party after his friend and teammate, Reese, joined the class. Those expectations grew to near-certainty when Fitzpatrick teased a major 8:00 pm announcement on Twitter yesterday.
The announcement? His dad is in a sitcom that debuts this month.
That is top-notch trolling, young Mr. Fitzpatrick. He told 247's Steve Wiltfong that he feels "really comfortable" at Michigan, but wants to be 100% sure before making a switch, so there's still a very good chance the post I may have written yesterday ends up seeing the light of day.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]
Podcast? Yes. We couldn't record it yesterday because of Easter obligations. We will tape it this evening. It should go up tomorrow.
Missed it? It's on the tubes.
Ours got more attention than normal because it was so early.
The Michigan offense in one picture [Patrick Barron]
Rome was not rebuilt from atomized dust in a day. It was not good, obviously. People will tell you that the defense is supposed to be in front of the offense at this juncture… but not that far in front. When they say that they mean something like "it was a little ugly and they only ran for like three yards a carry." They mean that the final score was 17-10 or thereabouts.
They do not mean that the only offense of the day will be Amara Darboh catching fades against Poor Damn Dennis Norfleet, a 5'7" guy who hadn't played defense in college until being tested there this spring. The overall feel was reminiscent of the legendarily terrible 2008 spring game, which I didn't even go to because it was held at a high school to facilitate Michigan Stadium's renovations and still remember as the first "oh shiiiii" moment in the Rodriguez era.
To some extent this was all expected. Michigan fans have been debating between a true freshman, a guy who had 3.2 YPA last year, and a redshirt freshman who did not play. They were going up against a defense that has been pretty good the last couple years (until collapsing in exhaustion at the end of games). It was never going to be pretty.
But did it have to be that ugly? Bler!
Quarterbacks: come on down Joliet Jake. Morris was anointed the #1 QB coming out of spring by none other than Harbaugh himself, and that seemed about right after the spring game. That it did so after Morris went 11 of 24 for 5.6 YPA would have me purchasing bags of dehydrated food, water purifiers, and shotguns if not for the 99% official transfer of Iowa starter Jake Rudock to Michigan. Rudock may not be a conquering hero… but he will probably feel like one.
Malzone, the great (if vague) hope going into spring, did not look ready to challenge for the throne. I'm not on board with the arm strength complaints just yet, as those seemed to be generated by a wide receiver screen Lewis tried to jump but did not, giving up a first down on 2nd and 19 (in this game the equivalent of 2nd and Canada).
I may come around in the near future. The constant short stuff was disappointing: even his attempt at a game-saving two minute drill featured five yard hitch after five yard hitch. He did have one nice dart downfield that Chase Winovich dropped…
a linebacker linebacks even when he tight ends [Bryan Fuller]
…but that stands out as just about the only attempt Malzone made to get the ball down the field. There were a lot of doomed WR screens in there. And that two minute drill… oy. They got about 20 yards before time ran out. This is a tradition I would like to leave in the past.
One thing I'll say in Morris's favor. He's got that fade down pat. One got intercepted because Darboh didn't wall off and extend away from a defensive back and a couple more got dropped; the rest save one were completions, and I think Morris ended up leaving that one short because he got hit. The rest were on the money, in that space outside the numbers and inside the sideline where the receiver has space to play with and can detach from the DB.
That's a good location to have down, by the way. It's tough to throw and thus tough to get to for a lot of defenses. Deep outs, smash routes, corners, and those fades all end up in that general area. It's the location on the field that is the reason NFL teams go cuckoo for cocoa puffs when they find a Mallett type. Morris can buy himself a lot of leeway if that throw is as consistently accurate as it felt like on Saturday.
a lot of this [Eric Upchurch]
Run game: I don't know. Ty Isaac was all but out (he's credited for one carry I don't remember), so the Malzone team's tailback was Wyatt Shallman (12 carries, 22 yards) with spot duty from Ross Taylor-Douglas*. Shallman is more of an H-back in college and it showed.
Meanwhile, both Ace and I assumed that Derrick Green had been mostly held out with an injury of his own only to find out that he and De'Veon Smith apparently split carries down the middle. It's just that Green's 7 went for 8 yards and Smith's 7 went for 50.
Smith had a sequence early in the second half where he ran tough and his offense started getting some actual time on the field. That ended with a fumbled exchange, because of course it did. Smith never fumbled in high school and hasn't done so in college yet so that issue is probably a freshman-QB thing more than anything Smith did wrong.
If Michigan knew Isaac was going to be limited they should have swapped Green over to the Blue team to get a better feel for the competition between those guys. Either way it was a good day for Drake Johnson.
*[who has now completed his tour of all the positions you can play on a football field and can turn in his punch card for a free bag of Combos.]
The one good run. Cole gets a good push on Henry, Kugler seals away, RJS and AJ Williams battle to a stalemate, Cole gets to the second level, and Smith makes a nice out-in cut to put the other linebacker on the wrong side of the hole:
gif via Ace
If Michigan develops holes on the regular I think Smith has an advantage because his ability to grind out another two or three yards will be valuable in the Harbaughffense.
L to R: back, under threat, trying out [Bryan Fuller]
OL depth chart hints. Glasgow was back and playing center as if he had not violated his probation; the program said he'd gotten through whatever punishment the program had deployed for him. If he keeps his nose clean that should clear him to resume playing center this fall.
Meanwhile Michigan tried out Logan Tuley-Tillman as the left tackle on the blue team, bumping Ben Braden inside to guard. LTT picked up three legit holding calls; even so that implies that he's getting a serious look and Braden may move or lose his job. Erik Magnuson playing right tackle for the Maize team is another indication that the tackle jobs are not secure.
A scholarship guy who might be looking at some writing on the wall is Dan Samuelson, who was healthy enough to make the roster but IIRC did not play much, if at all. With a couple walk-ons seemingly ahead of them they might be down for the count. Bars (who I omitted from the rosters post by accident did play, at guard:
He is 62 next to Kugler [Fuller]
If you made me guess right now I'd say that Erik Magnuson is Michigan's starting right tackle this fall and that guard slot opened up by the various line shifts is the most heated competition out there. But that's firmly in wild guess territory.
Wide receivers: do we have a problem? There were a number of ugly drops, none more so than Jaron Dukes batting a ball in his facemask directly skyward for an interception. Morris zinged it with unnecessary force, yes. That's still a worst case scenario for a receiver. Dukes had another sorta drop later and doesn't seem like he'll be pushing past the established guys this year.
Elsewhere: Darboh had a drop and a fade wrested away from him but recovered late to be the Blue team offense. Going up against Dennis Norfleet significantly compromises that accomplishment, especially since most of the plays were "throw it over that guy's head," but Darboh did display strong hands and an ability to track the ball in flight in a difficult situation. Some people can do that (Junior Hemingway), and some cannot (Darryl Stonum). Darboh is in the former category. Can he get separation from the likes of Jourdan Lewis? I don't know—one downside of this format.
Receivers other than Dukes and Darboh were playing with Malzone and barely got targeted on anything notable. This year's spring hype machine, Brian Cole, was not a factor until deep into the second half; Freddy Canteen made a couple of nice catches on balls outside the frame of his body. There was not a whole lot else to talk about.
There was a notable lack of separation for receivers going up against actual defensive backs. That could be bad; it could be an indicator that the secondary is going to be as lights out as we all hope. As per usual, we'll find out abruptly in fall.
Poor Damn Norfleet. In the aftermath Harbaugh talked Norfleet up as a guy who could contribute in all three phases. Nope. The act of moving a guy his size to cornerback is waving a white flag on his career.
I mean… maybe not. Harbaugh is weird and one of the specific ways in which he is weird is his predilection for flipping guys from one side of the ball to the other. This could be a Harbaugh whim that doesn't mean much about playing time down the line. But it probably means that Norfleet is kaput. We'll always have that
punt return touchdown to seal the Maryland game inane irrelevant block in the back by someone far away from you.
BEARD. This is not Elliott, right? This is some other spectacular beard just hanging out on the sideline?
This is one Brady Hoke tradition I'm glad we're keeping.
Michigan is now up to three commits from the spring game weekend visitors, as Prattville (AL) running back Kingston Davis announced his decision this morning:
I AM NOW COMMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN!! #GoBlue
— KingDavis™ (@_King_LD) April 6, 2015
Davis is a former high school teammate of 2015 signee Keith Washington, and Michigan will hold one of their satellite camps at Prattville in June. Davis is the fifth commit in the 2016 class and the first at running back.
|3*, #100 RB||3*, NR RB||NR RB||3*, 82, #3 FB||
3*, #3 FB,
Davis isn't yet regarded as a big-time recruit, though he looks like a player who could move up quickly upon further evaluation. He played behind four-star 2014 Auburn signee Kamryn Pettway as a sophomore, and last season he earned the plurality of carries in a talented three-back rotation while also playing in an offense that featured Washington utilizing his legs quite a bit as a dual-threat quarterback. Rivals currently lists him as the #24 prospect in Alabama, but their AlabamaVarsity outlet ranked him as the #16 recruit in the state in February.
The four sites are in general agreement regarding Davis' size, and he's a bruiser at 6'1", 230-ish pounds. Michigan is recruiting him as a running back, not a fullback, which gives you an idea of the type of size Jim Harbaugh envisions his offense having in a couple years.
There isn't a ton out there on Davis yet, and what has been written usually focuses on his size. At the RCS Atlanta a couple weeks ago, Rivals' Woody Wommack took notice of the big back ($):
Davis stood out physically as one of the biggest backs in attendance. At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds, he's as big as some of the linebackers he faced, and had a ton of success during one-on-ones. Depending on where he plays his college ball, it looks like Davis could play any number of positions.
Power backs aren't usually the type to stand out in a camp setting, when they're running routes, not smashing between the tackles, so that's an encouraging sign for Davis' potential as an every-down back.
Scout analyst John Garcia Jr. has the most complete scouting report, which he posted on The Victors Club after Davis committed ($):
Davis (PROFILE) is a bruiser of a back at 6-foot, 215-plus, but he's consistent with carrying the load as well. While he's a one-cut guy by nature, he is also a willing blocker and has better hands out of the backfield than given credit for. In the state of Alabama, which is RB heavy in 2016, I have Davis as a top 5 back because of how he consistently gets chunk yardage. He can get low with his pads and run with the power everyone expects him to, but has solid feet in the open field as well, making many miss without too much wasted motion. At the next level, I can see him as a hybrid RB/FB/H-back type depending on how his body continues to develop. Of course, he has ties to UM through his teammate Keith Washington, who signed with UM after playing QB for Prattville in 2014. The two were one of the best one-two punches in the state.
As you'll see in his film, Davis has some wiggle when he breaks into the secondary, and while he's not a pure burner, he's got good burst when he hits the line.
247's Clint Brewster broke down the tape in the wake of the commitment, and it sounds like Davis will fit in well in Harbaugh's system, which rewards patient runners:
He's a tough runner that can also make subtle cuts in the open field to extend runs and take advantage of creases. He has good vision behind the line of scrimmage as to where to hit the hole and explode. Not great maneuverability through the hole or change of direction agility but he's got deceptive straight line speed. He's got a knack for getting to the second level and outrunning guys. Shows good power to run through tackles when he keeps his pad level low. He's a patient but decisive runner with a forward lean and a physical style that makes him a tough guy to slow down once he gains steam.
Davis told GBW's Kyle Bogenschutz an encouraging high school stat ($):
“My junior year we just got a new running backs coach and had to learn to work with each other,” Davis said. “Blocking was a key factor this year and I led my team with 1,400-yards and 15 touchdowns.
“I’ve fumbled only one time in my high school career so that’s a big plus.”
Indeed. Davis also told Garcia what he'd like to work on as a senior:
"I want to maintain, maybe add a little more weight, work on some speed and get a lot faster," Davis said. "I'm more comfortable this year, I'm hitting the hole hard, blocking my tail off and doing the best I can do."
Tyrone Wheatley was Michigan's primary recruiter for Davis, and the youngster apparently reminded Wheatley of a running back with whom he's quite familiar, per Tim Sullivan ($):
"They want me to get up there, and they want me to play right away. That was a big part of it for me. I'll fit right into their system, and he really wants me up there. He said that I reminded me of himself, of Tyrone Wheatley. He was a big back, but fast and quick. I can run people over, and he said he really needs one of those guys up there."
While he doesn't quite have Wheatley's world-class speed yet (the former Michigan standout ran a 10.46-second 100-meter dash as a Wolverine), he's capable of sub-11-second times in the sprint event, and has put down an 11.5-second time this spring.
I'm okay with a Wheatley-approved Wheatley-type.
Davis also held offers from Louisville, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern, Texas State, and Troy. Rivals reports he had interest, but no offers, from Alabama and Auburn.
In addition to Michigan freshman-to-be Washington, Prattville has produced several FBS-caliber recruits in the Rivals era, most notably 2010 four-star Nick Perry, who started for the Tide at safety in 2014, and four-star 2012 athlete Justin Thomas, last year's starting quarterback in Georgia Tech's option offense.
Per MaxPreps, Davis rushed for 1432 yards and eight touchdowns on 192 carries (7.5 YPC) as a junior, adding 114 yards and another score on seven receptions. He carried the ball 70 times for 537 yards (7.7 YPC) and six TDs as a sophomore.
FAKE 40 TIME
Davis' Hudl page lists a 4.50, which gets four FAKEs out of five.
Sophomore highlights and single-game reels can be found on his Hudl page.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Michigan doesn't have any senior running backs on the roster, so unless Davis proves he's better than much more experienced players, he should take a redshirt in 2016, even though he's got college-ready size. After that, he'll compete with Ty Isaac, Karan Higdon, and likely another 2016 back for carries.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
Davis is the fifth commit in a class that currently projects to just 14 recruits by our count, though the coaches clearly expect that number to rise significantly given the #Fab25 hashtag being bandied about by recent commits. Michigan is very likely to pursue another running back, and a few current prospects holding offers stand out as decent possibilities to join the class: four-star Southfield RB Matt Falcon, who has Tennessee edging out Michigan at the moment; four-star NC RB Robert Washington recently named Michigan to his top five; and three-star IN RB Toks Akinribade responded positively to a recent offer.
Taking a broader view, this provides further evidence Harbaugh's staff is going to pull in a lot more players from SEC country than their predecessors:
Harbaugh's had five commitments from the southeastern part of the country since January. Hoke had 3 in the last three years
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) April 6, 2015
Add in the renewed focus on California and Texas, and it's clear Harbaugh's recruiting is going to take on a more national flavor than Hoke's did.
John Beilein picked up his first commit of the 2015 class today when German forward Moritz Wagner announced he'll attend Michigan:
Proud that I gonna be a Wolverine and a part of ichigan next year. Damn grateful for what Alba did for me! This is my club &always will be
— Moe Wagner (@moritz_weasley) April 5, 2015
Wagner chose the college route over playing professionally in Germany for Alba Berlin. Beilein traveled to watch Wagner play for his club team last year, and Michigan jumped to the forefront of Wagner's recruitment when they offered him last month during a campus visit.
|NR PF||NR PF||--||--||--|
The recruiting services don't evaluate overseas players, so Wagner is unranked across the board. He's listed at 6'9", 210 on Rivals, which fits with reports that he isn't quite a full 6'10", which he was listed at on several sites. When Wagner visited Ann Arbor, Rivals' Eric Bossi found a scout to give his thoughts on where Wagner would be ranked if he were an American prospect:
So, exactly what type of player is Wagner? Rivals.com spoke with an NBA scout over the weekend and the scout said Moritz isn't likely as tall as the 6-foot-10 he's being listed at, but he is plenty big to play as a college four man. The scout said Wagner has good touch, is clever with the ball and that he competes on both ends of the floor.
"He's not a guy that is on our radar as somebody who is going to be a pro right away," said the scout. "He's somebody that we see going to college and then we'll see from there. I'd look at him as a top-20 to top-40 type recruit if he were in the States."
That would put him towards the tail end of the five-stars or among the top four-stars, which... yeah, that sounds nice.
Scout's Evan Daniels caught up with an NBA Scout to get his take on Wagner's game:
From the video I’ve been able to get my hands on, Wagner’s all around skill set is what immediately stands out. He has impressive hands, good touch around the basket and can score both facing the rim and with his back to it.
“He’s a versatile kid who knows how to play ball,” a NBA scout that has evaluated him multiple times told Scout. “He’s not an athlete, but with his length and coordination he manages to deceive his opponents and get to the rack quiet easily. Once he becomes a more consistent shooter he will be a nightmare on the wing.”
“He reads the game well, gets his teammates involved and is unselfish player,” the NBA scout added. “The most impressive thing about him is his passion for the game and the will to win. He legitimately cares for the game.”
This scouting report from European Prospects comes from last May:
The young Moritz Wagner is a really interesting prospect for the future. Used as a PF on multiple occasions, Wagner showed that he has an outside game and that his future should be on the SF position. He can shoot from outside, either on catch-and-shoot situations or in the Pick and Pop when being the screener. Wagner can also put the ball on the floor which works particularly well when used against taller power forwards. He is also able to drive with direction changes and finish against stronger or taller players in the paint. Athletically, he is looking good and with his overall length, he is a good vertical presence on both sides of the court. Wagner really needs to be used on the wing positions in the future as he has the tools to become an interesting long small forward in the future.
Wagner still needs to hone his outside shot, but he's got great length for a Beilein wing, and he should be able to create offense off the dribble. While he isn't regarded as a one-and-done talent, his German team very much wanted to sign him to a pro contract, but Wagner reportedly wants to make it to the NBA and believes Michigan provides him the best path to get there.
Wagner's narrow focus on Michigan didn't allow for many other schools to come under serious consideration. When he was planning his visit, he'd also heard from Arizona, Auburn, Cal, Duke, Providence, Virginia, and UNLV. That's a pretty impressive list of suitors for an overseas prospect making a late decision.
In the NBBL (German youth league), Wagner is averaging 17 points, 5 rebounds, two assists and two steals per game while shooting 61% on twos and 30% on threes. He also averaged 9.6 points and 5.4 rebounds during the Adidas Next Generation U18 Tournament, helping Alba Berlin to a third-place finish.
Playing with Germany’s U18 team in the FIBA Euro Championships, Wagner averaged 5.2 points and three rebounds in 10 minutes a game.
The outside shot needs some work, but that's some impressive efficiency inside the arc.
Going from most to least recent:
While his athleticism doesn't jump off the screen, his skill level is apparent.
PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE
Wagner is going to need some time adding bulk at Camp Sanderson, and his slight physique—and still-developing shot—may limit his minutes as a freshman, especially if Caris LeVert comes back and a logjam results on the wings. He'll most likely be competing with Duncan Robinson and Kameron Chatman for a spot in the rotation, and of the three we've only been able to see Chatman play at this level.
Down the road, he's a very intriguing prospect. Michigan really missed having a player at the four who could create off the dribble, and while Aubrey Dawkins made some progress in that regard late in the season, Wagner looks like the most polished slasher among the guys who could play at that spot. If his outside shot comes along, he could be a very impactful stretch four.
UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS
Wagner's commitment means Michigan is currently at the scholarship limit for 2015-16, and that's assuming Max Bielfeldt will move on to another program for his fifth year, as expected. If LeVert departed for the NBA, that'd open up a spot. Michigan is still in pursuit of five-star 2015 forward Jaylen Brown, and should he decide he wants to attend, it's hard to imagine Michigan wouldn't have a spot for him, perhaps by putting Austin Hatch on medical scholarship; there have been some positive indicators for Brown since his visit, but he's still expected to end up elsewhere.
Unless Brown makes a surprise choice to come to Michigan, this should be the conclusion of the program's 2015 recruiting.