Morris's cannon, by me.
Before getting into last week's game, Best and Worst this week spent about 1,000 words on exorcising demons, spinning a tale of Michigan's decline with the rise of offense based on athletes in space. Once the 2014 ASU game was in hand, it occurred to me that this is where Michigan ought to have been 7 years ago. By 2007 the college football world had witnessed the spread's effectiveness in all its forms, and had time to adjust their schemes, recruit for it, and develop those recruits. The prep sites already identified dual-threat and pro-style quarterbacks separately, and the nationally #1 2008 recruit was absolutely the former.
One part of The Horror story is that Opening Day of 2007 was Michigan's first after switching to zone blocking. [Correction: I have been going around remembering this wrong for years. M went zone in 2006.] Our metrics for evaluating that weren't as good back then, but from memory the blocking that day was about on par with last Saturday's—a work in progress with some obvious successes—except the unit was 20% more senior Jake Long. The biggest difference in the two game plans is once 2007 App State began cheating to stop zone left, DeBord never punished them for it by taking the easy WR screen-type yards. On Saturday, Nussmeier absolutely did, and while that certainly wasn't 2007 Appalachian State out there, it wasn't so hard to imagine if it had been.
Which brings me to the above gif, a sort of preview of things to come in 2015. It was indeed a rollout from a two-TE formation that required a quarterback to make a play that required amazing awareness, footwork and arm strength, but not running speed. It seems the armistice between spread zealots and the MANBALLers will be this: the 2007 offense except with sensible constraints, the 2007 defense except with five times as many functional LBs and DBs, and the 2007 outcomes except we won't lose to teams with a major talent disadvantage. So long as it's successful there will be peace, and so long as the players do amazing things they will be gif'd. Both sides of the fanbase have decided we'd rather eat some lemons that go through bad ideas and bad fits any more.
This is COrrEct. From Inside the Box Score:
I Attended the Beth MOOOwins school of jOUrnalism this sUmmer. According to Beth, the key to doing play-by-play is to randomly Over-anunciate your vOwels. That's the key to doing a Beth MOwins imitAYtion. Just blAst the occAsional vOwel at mAx vOlume. Especially the O's, she loves her O's.
I tend to imagine ESPN has some kid sitting behind Mowins in the booth and the kid is kicking her chair and rocking it back and forth as she talks. In answer to what does Joey Galloway bring to the game: something that's far more annoying than Beth Mowins.
Preach!. Sharik showed that Alabama, whose special teams players might be All-Conference starters already at other schools,
was 112th in net punting because they dinosaur. Purdue, who recruits so terribly that Urban Meyer complained it was hurting the conference, was 2nd. [UPDATE: apparently we read that wrong. HT to johnthesavage.]
[After the jump: videos of MGoBlog posters eating lemons]
it's supposed to be creepy and self serious and gross
An annual tradition also coming to an end this week: I talk with Puppet Wrangler In Chief Brian Stouffer about the Notre Dame game as ridiculously as possible. Part One is at House Rock Built and features a TOO SOON joke plus icky Canadian emo breakup rock. This is part two.
I am bolded; Stouffer is not. This is just for readability, and not meant to imply any jinx-inducing superiority.
Let's talk Irish running game. Brian Kelly going to bother with it at all? He seems to hate it.
I think even Brian Kelly can find a little love in his cold black heart for our run game this year. The OL is looking pretty dominant, and now we've got three guys that we can swap out at RB, so there's going to be a lot of fresh legs and hard running. If we can force more defensive resources to respect the run game, that's all the more space opened up for the happy-go-bomby portion of the program.
How's your front seven? Up to the task?
Michigan has some whizbang on its DL this year with Frank Clark and a horde of defensive tackles. Everyone has high hopes that ogre/man Willie Henry will get technique religion this year and starting hurling dudes around; Ondre Pipkins looked good in limited time in his first game back from an ACL tear.
The linebackers were iffy as M replaced last years starters at ILB with a SAM linebacker and Joe Bolden, one of the backups, and then we're pretty sure Desmond Morgan is out... which is bad because he was Michigan's best LB Saturday and last year. In a game where they figure to spread 'em out it will be important for Michigan to win that battle at the line. This is kind of the opposite of Michigan OL versus ND front seven.
Wow... that sounds like confidence. Confident Brian Cook frightens and confuses me. Your secondary is supposed to be awesome and experienced too, yes? Are you guys the 85 Bears? You have to tell me if you are. Otherwise it's entrapment.
The secondary! They return everyone except a middling safety and have about six corners plus a solid FS; the other SS spot is a bit of an issue that may cost Michigan. I like Jeremy Clark long term, but he made a couple of silly errors to set up both App State touchdowns.
And all that stuff about how defense X is going to be aggressive is actually true: Michigan is mostly a man press team now, throwing in enough zone to prevent you from running all the pick routes but generally in your face and against easy yards. It's kind of unprecedented. Of course, this is all hypothetical until they play a real team. I am optimistic, not even cautiously so. Michigan fans have been pointing at this year as a breakout one for the defense since Mattison arrived, basically, and now it's time to put up or shut up.
But not the 85 Bears, because we do not have a dance.
the NFL is so spectacularly copyright litigious that the actual Super Bowl shuffle is not on the tubes
How do you expect Notre Dame's WRs to deal with a lot of in-yo-face coverage? That Robinson guy is rather tall. I wonder who is father is.
None other than William "The Refrigerator" Perry.
THAT DON'T MAKE NO SENSE PAWWWWWL
And now you know... the rest of the story.
Okay, now that we've referenced both Paul Harvey and Paul Finebaum (#truedetectiveseason2), I'll um answer your question. What was it? Oh, receivers. Yes. Karl Malone or whoever's kid is big, but I haven't really seen him play like a big man and fight for the ball. The other receivers are undersized, and while they were fun to watch hauling in bombs in the open field, I'm not sure if they're going to excel at fighting in tight spaces.
I think Michigan might use more safeties than Rice's "NOOOOOPE." That was so bizarre. You're RICE! You can't stick with those guys. RICE: "WE LIKE MATH BUT HATE LOGIC" Me: "That's not logical." RICE: "HAHAHAHA!"
Everyone hates rice.
Do you still have Butt? I read somewhere you hurt your Butt. Sorry about your Butt. Do you have a replacement Butt?
We broke our Butt but our Butt is just abutt ready to butt in on this game. Everyone's been told Butt will not butt in but Butt himself thinks Butt is ready to get his butt in there and put someone else on their butt. But, we don't know about Butt until he either suits up or does not suit up. Butt.
And no we don't have a replacement Butt our other tight ends are offensive linemen who aren't good at blocking.
In a year full of terrible Butt news, this is the worst Butt news yet.
I am not entirely sure what the Other Brian means by this but I assume he's referring to this woman recently convicted for a LETHAL BUTT INJECTION. She was convicted of "depraved heart murder"… and wire fraud. Personally I would have let the wire fraud go.
We may have digressed somewhat here.
But... Oh, right. Yes.
Ask me something non-posterior-related. Quickly.
Who draws the Funchess matchup? HE'S LARGE AND IN CHARGE!
Gawd he's still around? He's so big. Are we allowed to swat at him with a tennis racket?
Adidas Tennis Orc Ladies: tried briefly in the 1980s and quickly discontinued
I think so. He doesn't react to non-metals.
Arggh. Welp, We don't have anyone who can actually match up with him, so I think the idea is to "contain" him -- that is to say, let him catch infinity red zone touchdowns but hope he doesn't suddenly discover he can run a 3.9 40.
Although there are weird magicks in this series. 300 pound tight ends routinely bust 99 yard runs.
That seems pessimistic. I thought you guys were deep in the secondary even without Russell?
Deep, but not "hey look at all the 6'5" defensive backs we have lying around" deep.
Well... I think that about covers it unless there are extreme special teams outliers.
Michigan does have a punter who may blast it 70 yards or shank it 25. So... yeah.
And they use old-style punting, so if he does blast it 70 there might be some fireworks.
Yeah, no. Special teams should be mercifully boring this year. Hopefully. I s'pose it's onward to prediction time.
pictured: mercifully boring special teams
Considering we nailed the prediction PERFECTLY last year, we've set a pretty high bar for ourselves.
Yeah. I dunno, I kind of think the front sevens and OLs are a wash, and then I like Michigan's passing game more with Russell and Collinsworth out. There is the road factor. For whatever reason, Michigan's been worse than you might expect on the road. And then there is the WTF factor. The game feels closer to a pick 'em to me than Vegas thinks.
Plus all bets are off for THE END OF FOOTBALL
Yes. If a ball doesn't deflect off four guys to someone's great profit or loss what's the point of anything?
I suggest we make the prediction the same way we did last year. One word at a time until one of us, both of us, or EVERYONE is dead.
All right. I think we should do two. Last year you got stuck with a lot of articles.
Two it is. I have won the coin toss and elect to defer.
In the gruesome finale of the epic battle between cultures steeped in
butts and cloying arrogance, two men wearing only each others' flayed scalps battled viciously until all that was and all that will ever be deflected off an unsuspecting postal worker.
As our universe imploded, the postal worker thought, "Not again."
This terrifyingly apropos picture about the end of the world coming when death loses 45-10 to Alabama is in fact the first GIS hit for "Postal Apocalypse." Death ain't played nobody, Pawwwl!
It has been nice knowing you. I hope your football team evaporates in a steam that smells like Werther's Originals Saturday and then you re-hire Charlie Weis.
And I just hope everyone has a good time out there and makes some good memories.
THAT IS JUST SO NOTRE DAME
A sincere thanks to Brian for bugging me to do this every year. I will miss it.
"Never count out Touchdown Tom" –Jon Bois
The game. We kicked off the college season last week. Next in MGoPools with our official fantasy partner, it's NFL time.
And that means I have to justify taking Tom. Wes Welker is gone (and suspended besides), and the last thing we remember from a Miami-New England duel is Tom getting outdueled by Ryan Tannehill. In such an environment they say Brady is no longer such a sure thing, or at least he ain't no Peyton, or Brees, or Stafford, or Luck, or Rodgers, or Kaepernick, or Foles.
I'm going in with the belief that Miami's new up-tempo offense is going to create more plays for both sides, and Tom's receiver depth chart is deep (Jeremy Gallon couldn't even keep a roster spot) and most of those guys are in a contract year. The spread may have finally gained a foothold in the NFL, but don't count out Touchdown Tom.
|N.O. spent all preseason trying to pretend like Brandin Cooks ain't no big thing..|
The prize. It's Mystery T-Shirt time. Okay so giving $5 off the store to everyone who beats me turned out to be not so good an idea because my team was terrible.* We're trying to track down who among the people in the pool used the MGoBlog link to send the code. So instead we're just gonna give a t-shirt to the top scorer from the site. Which shirt? It's a mystery. Mystery shirt.
Details on the Mystery MgoShirt NFL Pool:
- $100,000 prize pool.
- $2 entry fee. Entry is free with your first deposit.
- $10,000 1st Place prize.
- Top 11,500 are paid.
- Starts on Sunday, September, 7th at 1:00 EST.
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots. 8 players and 1 defense.
- Roster Format: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 Defense.
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600
FORMATION NOTES: Not a whole lot that was unusual. Michigan has changed the alignment of their backs in some shotgun sets:
I called this "shotgun deep" since the QB is still at 5 yards but the back is behind instead of parallel. I imagine they did this for the same reason the pistol exists: to give the back downhill momentum when he takes a handoff.
Conventional shotgun sets were frequent as well, as were split TEs. This is the first snap of the game and features Hill motioning from an H-back spot to the slot; he'll block for Funchess on a successful flanker screen.
Michigan would occasionally scrape up an I-Form out of whatever was laying around, like when Chesson motioned in here. This actually cut behind Chesson's force block to pick up 15.
SUBSTITUTION NOTES: OL was Cole-Magnuson-Miller-Burzynski/Kalis-Braden the whole way. Gardner obviously QB until garbage time; he got pulled a couple drives before Michigan did much non-WR substitution.
Feature backs were Green and Smith with Hayes apparently a third down option; Drake Johnson only saw garbage carries and should no longer be considered a playing time contender going forward.
At WR it was Funchess, Chesson, Darboh, and Norfleet rotating approximately equally; Canteen did not get on until late. Bo Dever is your backup slot, apparently. Tight end was mostly Hill and Williams with a bit less Heitzman sprinkled in.
[After THE JUMP: all things discussed.]
No Bad Plays
As recruits turn their focus to the first couple weeks of their high school season, the recruiting news firehose has slowed to a trickle for the moment. Thankfully, scouting of Michigan prospects is in full swing.
There are a lot of things that Roseboro does well, that's been documented, but sometimes it's difficult for casual followers to find weaknesses. When highlights are viewed they are just that - highlights. Snider insists that a lot of times what you see is what you get with Roseboro.
"I think it's really tough to identify weaknesses with him," Snider admitted. "He's pretty tough to block. I think that as a sophomore he might've taken a play off now and then, but last year he didn't really do that. He was much more aggressive and tough."
Roseboro's highlights are, well, highlights, so if he's bringing that on a snap-to-snap basis, that's great to hear.
Reports continue trickling in from last weekend's games. Josh Newkirk spoke with LB commit Darrin Kirkland Jr. after he recorded 17 tackles, four TFLs, a fumble recovery, and an interception in his team's opener to discuss the improvements in his game this year ($):
At 6-foot-2, 226-pounds, Kirkland says he worked on his strength mostly this off-season and it showed in his game on Saturday.
“I feel like my strength could be one of the key assets of my game,” Kirkland said. “Being able to shed blockers. That’s one of the biggest things I needed to conquer. As well as my quickness and my speed. Just not to be blocked by lineman, because some are very athletic. It’s helped me a lot. I have been covering sideline to sideline, and it’s really helped me in coverage as well.”
That extra work certainly appeared to pay off in week one. Kirkland also mentioned that he's struck up a friendship with five-star CA WDE Keisean Lucier-South; both will be on campus for the Penn State game.
[Hit THE JUMP for Where In The World Is Tim Sullivan, the latest on Chris Clark, several 2016 prospect updates, and more.]
Taken moments after the final person complained about Funchess switching to #1[Upchurch]
The Four Factors*
|Field Position||Bonus Yards||Conversion Rate||Red Zone|
|Michigan||29.0 pts||5.9 yds/play||80%||7.0 pts/trip|
Total domination of a weaker opponent in every category. Michigan’s huge advantage in field position is partially driven by starting a drive with an extra point after Gedeon’s blocked punt return**. But even without that play, it was a large field position advantage, especially considering Michigan didn’t force any turnovers.
The 25% conversion rate allowed is significantly better than any number from last season. Last year’s opener was Michigan’s best game when they allowed CMU 47% conversions. Both bonus yards and bonus yards allowed were better than any numbers posted during the 2013 season.
*A quick refresh:
Field Position is expected points an average team will score given the starting field position over the course of the game. Defensive/special teams touchdowns count as 7 points.
Bonus Yards are any yards gained beyond the first down yardline, a measure of offensive explosiveness. >3 ypp is elite offensively, <2 is elite defensively
Conversion Rate is first downs gains divided by first downs started, a measure of an offense’s ability to move the chains consistently. >80% is elite offensively and <65% is elite defensively.
Red Zone is points per red zone trip. >5.7 is elite offensively and <4.3 is elite defensively. This is the weakest predictor of the four factors.
All factors except field position are only measured on competitive series (all series in the first half and any second half series that starts or ends within 15 points).
**I know some people don’t like that I include return TD’s in this number but I think if you are going to count it if he gets tackled at the 1, it doesn’t make sense to exclude it if he makes it all the way in.
Devin Gardner: +13.3 expected points, +26% win percent added
Derrick Green: +2.9, +4% (+9.3 including second half)
De’Veon Smith: +7.4, +7% (+9.8 including second half)
Devin Funchess: +9.2, +18% on 8 targets
None of these numbers are opponent adjusted yet. De’Veon Smith is the highest non-adjusted total for a Michigan running back since Fitzgerald Toussaint added 9.4 points of value against Purdue in 2011.
[Jump, game chart and such]