So, after shenanigans—there are always shenanigans—Michigan lands in the Gruesome Running Back Leg Injury Bowl against South Carolina. Appropriately, the game will be played in a pirate ship.
A new opponent requires knowledge. Here is the knowledge about South Carolina.
Haunting various dreams for the next month
like Will Gholston, except good at football, so not like Will Gholston
Hey look it's Jadeveon Clowney, a 6'6", 260-pound defensive end with the kind of size/speed combo that has made him so patently unfair in college from day one that the only comparison you can make is with Adrian Peterson, who doesn't even play on the same side of the ball. Clowney's coming off a 4.5 sack performance against Clemson, leads the nation with 13 of those, and has hit 21.5 TFLs. Nobody approaches him and says "lol you name clowney."
Clowney's parents should have kept changing his name to something more outlandishly mockable with every inch he grew, just to see if anyone would bite on "I have a butt on my face Clowney." No one would have.
Unsurprisingly, over a sack per game by that guy is a good head start on lots of sacks in general—South Carolina is fifth nationally with 3.3 a game. Nobody else leaps off the page but that's actually a testament to South Carolina's pass-rush depth. The next three guys on the sack list have 5, 4.5, and 3 sacks. This isn't that impressive… until you look them up and find out they're all defensive ends. Which means that from two-ish positions on the field—I bet at least one of those guys plays DT on passing downs—South Carolina has 13 and 12.5 sacks. Put another way, Michigan's entire team has 6.5 fewer sacks than South Carolina's DEs*.
So at least NFL scouts are happy with the matchup of Lewan and Schofield versus those guys.
*[Not entirely fair since Michigan faced 294 passes to South Carolina's 342, but… yeah still pretty much fair.]
Haunting various dreams last month
That would be the aforementioned gruesome leg injury to Marcus Lattimore, whose knee ligaments had a suicide pact gruesomely consummated in the Tennessee game.
The downgrade in the run game was severe and immediately apparent. Backup Kenny Miles came in to grind out 34 yards on 10 carries—2.5 YPC worse than Lattimore's efforts—against the Vols. The next week against Arkansas Miles and Mike Davis combined to average 3.3 YPC. After a breather against Wofford, the pair split carries against Clemson for 3.1 YPC.
Lattimore had not been astounding before the injury, FWIW. He had a couple of Toussaint-like lines against LSU (13 carries for 35 yards) and Florida (3(!) for 13), and only cracked 100 yards against Vandy, Kentucky, and Georgia. Issues with South Carolina's run game seem systemic.
COACHES WANT TO BE SPIES
@ Right: Thompson is apparently evangelical.
This will sound familiar: South Carolina announced that backup quarterback Dylan Thompson would start against Clemson one hour before the game last weekend, rendering headlines like…
Connor Shaw Is the Key to the South Carolina-Clemson Game
…teeth-gnashingly frustrating for blog folk. Shaw had been fighting foot/ankle injuries that sapped his mobility for much of the year and should reclaim the starting job with a month to heal up.
Thompson did put up 310 yards passing, 3 TDs, and an interception while also picking up 73 yards on the ground (of which he gave back 35 on sacks), so if Connor Shaw struggles early you know the OBC is just itching to swap quarterbacks.
Shaw has not given much indication that he will as long as he's healthy. Michigan's defense is good but it's not at the level of LSU and Florida, and those are about the only defenses to give South Carolina much trouble this year. Oh, and Vandy. Right.
I learned it from YOU, dad
If you have not watched Carolina play this year it may surprise you to know that the Gamecocks have moved to what is pretty much a full-on spread offense with QB running and whatnot. Shaw and Thompson have 118 non-sack rushing attempts between them, many of them on old-timey zone read pulls when defenses sell out on Lattimore or Guy Who Isn't Lattimore.
No, this has not prevented them from finishing 12th in total defense, 15th in rushing D, and 13th in scoring defense. Yes, it is a crazy old world when Steve Spurrier is piloting a spread offense and winning with defense.
Further upping the sense Michigan is playing a weird alternate universe version of itself: Ace Sanders is a Gamecock Jeremy Gallon, except way better on punt returns. He's a slot dude, like all South Carolina receivers, and is a frequent target on screens. About which more later.
South Carolina practices are races to the quarterback
So I'm pretty sure the Gamecock offensive line is a shambles. There's the Lattimore numbers, which are depressing against superior defenses and grindingly okay against the Vandys of the world, where he'd pick up like 4.8 YPC because he gets one or three after contact every time. Without him the Gamecocks are a team that rushes for 4.1 YPC against Wofford.
Now add in the OL yielding 2.9 sacks a game on a relatively modest 329 attempts and this is not a good offensive line. It is a very bad offensive line, which helps explain why…
The Gamecock passing game is a betrayal of everything Steve Spurrier has ever believed in
Gamecock WRs: shorter than cornerbacks. Which cornerbacks? All cornerbacks.
Here's every attempt from the USCe-Missouri game:
Purdue. Before Lattimore's injury he was Carolina's leading receiver with 26 catches for 173 yards; Miles has 16 more catches. The top three receivers are all 5'9". That clip reel has about three passes past ten yards and given the YAC machines these guys are that is a season-long trend. The leading receiver, Bruce Ellington, is averaging about 15 yards a catch.
The two tight ends are frequently featured. Justice Cunningham is the large guy you see catching a half-dozen dumpoffs in the clip reel above; South Carolina will also go to Rory Anderson in the redzone—five of his 13 catches are touchdowns.
It works well enough, though: Spurrier's dink and dunk is 21st in passer efficiency. They spread the ball around, get lots of yards after the catch, and have kept the interceptions that plagued Stephen Garcia down.
Men who might tackle Denard Robinson
If Michigan can get to the second level, the guy most likely to be making the stop is fifth-year senior Shaq Wilson, who's a 5'11, 226-pound WLB sort who leads South Carolina in tackles. #2 is safety DJ Swearinger, which may or may not betray a tendency to get blocked on a second level that the defensive line covers up frequently.
This is probably not thecase. South Carolina is 15th nationally despite facing an absolute ton of rushing attempts. On a YPC basis they are better than OSU by 0.4 yards and better than MSU by 0.2 yards. They are essentially equivalent to Notre Dame, who Michigan did actually run on some—with Denard Robinson playing QB.
The over-under on Thomas Rawls YPC is set at one.
Well what about the air?
More plausible. Michigan's pass efficiency D slots in just behind South Carolina and I think we know Michigan can be had. The Bray went nuts against them with 368 yards on 43 attempts, 4 TDs, and one INT. On the other hand, Aaron Murray had 109 yards on 31 attempts and an INT, Tajh Boyd 183 on 24 attempts and a 1-2 TD-INT ratio.
As someone who saw the Bray live in a game where Jarvis Jones was made to not exist, I think that game does indicate that if you can protect your quarterback the secondary will yield open guys and chunks of yards. Every time you drop back, though, you're playing with fire, as that clip above demonstrates. Sooner or later I have a butt on my face is going to get you.
If Michigan can move the ball against this defense it's going to be great news for Mike Schofield as Michigan's left tackle next year, because Lewan will take the money and run after sending his stock skyward. Also everyone will all be like WHERE WAS THAT AGAINST OHIO STATE because I tell you what running up the middle on third and short is going to have the same result.
Off the cuff first impression
10-6 South Carolina.
Lots of changes in this week's rankings as we have a completely new order to the top four—one you may not like too much—as well as the debut of future B1G members Rutgers and Maryland. Changes since the last rankings:
11-4-12: Purdue picks up Ra-Zahn Howard.
11-13-12: Wisconsin picks up Tyler Foreman.
11-16-12: Illinois picks up Zane Petty.
11-17-12: Illinois picks up Evan Panfil. Nebraska picks up Adam Taylor.
11-18-12: Wisconsin picks up Marcus Ball and Tiquention Coleman.
11-21-12: Parker Cothren decommits from Purdue. Penn State picks up Parker Cothren.
11-25-12: Indiana picks up Darius Latham. Kyle Shortridge decommits from Purdue.
11-29-12: Gareon Conley decommits from Michigan. Minnesota picks up Berkley Edwards.
11-30-12: Minnesota picks up Hendrick Ekpe.
12-1-12: Northwestern picks up Tommy Fuessel.
12-2-12: Illinois picks up Eric Finney and Abens Cajuste. Northwestern picks up Marcus McShepard.
Also added all of the Rutgers and Maryland commits, obviously.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||24/7 Avg||ESPN Avg||Avg Avg^||POINTS*|
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
*The product of number of Commits and Average Average
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
On to the full data after the jump.
The Big Ten doesn't actually care what you think about the destruction of longstanding rivalries so they can have more NYC/DC viewers in the duration of tiered cable's death throes. However BTN has put up a survey for the purpose of discussion points on their Monday show that represents the first crack I've yet seen in the conference's apparent immunity to public opinion on its expansion plans. This, like the survey when they announced the division names, will of course be duly ignored; I say let's tell them anyway.
Call your friends and family and that girl you studied abroad with what's her name, and make them take it too. Whatever you answer in the rest, say "VERY IMPORTANT" for Question 9, and use 17 to ask they put Michigan and Ohio State in the same divisions.
The questions, and opinions:
1. What is your favorite B1G school?
This one is thrown in there to weed out the hardcore fans when they break their mouse by clicking on this SO HARD.
2. My favorite school is in which division?
???? I think it says "Leaders" in the song; I'm guessing that one. Also I'm guessing if everybody says "I have no idea" that can become a talking point against the division names.
3. As the conference expands beyond 12 teams, should the new teams be added to an existing division or should new divisions be drawn from scratch?
Start from scratch please.
4. What do you think of the "Legends" and "Leaders" names? (Strongly Like to Strongly Dislike.)
Again, this is put here to make you break your clicking device. Gently. Gently.
5. Should the B1G change or keep the current division names?
6. If you think the division names should be changed, what should they be changed to?
This is an input box; write what you want. Like most old timey NHL fans I prefer divisions named for historical guys, so Yost-Stagg or Bo-Woody. Brian likes East-West. North-South. Plains-Lakes. Big Ten-Little Four. Persistence-Perseverance. Wait no not that last one, they might actually go for that.
7. If divisions were to be changed, what criteria should be used to determine them? (Rank by importance Competitive balance, geography, protect traditional rivalries.)
I suggest putting "Protect traditional rivalries" first because they're all important but at least that might put M-OSU in the same division.
8. How important is it for IN-STATE rivals to be in the same division? (Very important to not important.)
Irrelevant. Every in-state school is already traditional rivals with the other one.
9. How important is it for TRADITIONAL rivals to be in the same division? (Very important to not important.)
VERY important. Rivalries need something at stake, and beating your divisional rivals counts as virtually two wins if you're against them for the championship invite. If we're not with Ohio State the game becomes a "protected" rivalry, which means we'll see them every year while our division rivals face them maybe twice a decade.
10. Currently, the number of conference games the B1G plays is 8. Should this increase?
The answers they give here include "Yes, increase to 10 games (2 non-conference games; 5 home conf games and 5 road conf games)" which, hell yeah (now that ND is gone I think 2 games is plenty to have a warm-up and an interesting matchup) except it will never happen because they make their money off of home games and more conference games means more losses at the end of the season and fewer bowl-eligible teams.
11. What is your preference on a B1G Basketball Tourney? (Every team qualifies, or 12 of 14 teams qualify.)
They don't let you go less than 12. So 12, obviously.
12. Currently, the B1G has no divisions for basketball. Should this be changed?
I'd go for a tiered system before divisions. Don't care either way; if I knew they wouldn't screw it up I might be more inclined.
13. If yes, why should there be divisions for basketball?
Text entry. Share your opinion; mine is above.
14. If no, why shouldn't there be divisions for basketball?
15. When people reference "B1G", do you recognize that to be the Big Ten Conference?
Obviously you do, but think about what this could mean in context: if everyone is saying "no" then the talking point becomes "Nobody even knows what B1G means." I'm all for talking points that hurry along the demise of that embarrassment of a logo.
16. With 14 teams currently, should the B1G remain the "Big Ten", or should its name be changed?
I don't have a better name for it; we should have sued the Big XII and the Big East when we had the chance because "Big" is the nickname that grew up organically and should be the qualifying piece of information in the name, not the number.
17. Do you have any further thoughts on B1G expansion?
PUT MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE IN THE SAME DIVISION! Also don't add Maryland and Rutgers, name the divisions from whatever's on the motivational poster in your boss's office, make another stupid looking logo, etc.
27 tickets to team 156. Naw just joshin'…
Read this. Meinke on Heck's cancer-stricken wife:
Roy Roundtree hauled in a 16-yard touchdown pass to cap an improbable fourth-quarter comeback last season against Notre Dame. It came in the first night game in Big House history, gave Brady Hoke his first signature win at the school and set off a wild on-field celebration.
Players and coaches raced around looking for someone -- anyone -- to hug.
Not Jeff Hecklinski.
The Michigan receivers coach paced around trying to find cell service. Moments after the biggest win of his career, he wanted to call his wife. But not to celebrate -- to see if she was OK.
Thursday Thursday Thursday. I'll be Washington DC talking about stuff. Ask questions in that thread, sign up at the UM Club of DC's site, and etc. I will be audible since it's at a law firm! Excited about that bit.
college hockey in St. Louis: what could go wrong?
"Our current setup provides a lot of challenges,” said Tom Nevala, chair of the Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Committee and senior associate athletics director at Notre Dame. “You need to find buildings that are neutral sites, have NHL ice and ideally are within close proximity to the host school’s fan base. Right now for the most part, we really need the host to qualify if we are going to have good attendance and atmosphere at our regionals. In an effort to increase attendance, the NCAA has been working with the hosts to try and make tickets more affordable but the nature of neutral sites and non-traditional game times works against us a bit.”
Translated from guy-who-wants-to-keep-his-job to raging bloggerese that is a slavering attack on the current format. I like you, Tom Nevala. You're all right.
“Personally, I would like to see us move to an on-campus best-of-three series format for the first round,” Nevala said. “The top seeds would host regardless of size of its building. Right now we do it at the conference level and it works very well. There are upsets even with the home ice advantage and the atmosphere for everyone involved would be better. We have such great campus facilities that are such a part of the fabric of college hockey, it’s a shame that the national tourney isn’t played in them.”
Massive improvement, though it does leave you with eight teams and no suggestion as to what to do with them. I've seen other people propose a "super regional" featuring just the two games, but that runs into the same issues. May as well just extend the season a week and do best two-of-three again, then have a Frozen Four.
Unfortunately, Nevala then goes on to say "the coaching body" is "set on having the regional games at neutral sites," which means we must fire every single D-I coach and replace them with people who aren't CHL sleeper agents.
Gambling in this establishment. WHL hammers Portland for benefits over and above the ones they're allowed to give.
Schedule strength so far. Michigan fares well in Luke Winn's latest power rankings:
Michigan's about to fade in this department as they take on an array of low-major teams and struggling Arkansas and West Virginia outfits, but right now you can take Michigan's stats as seriously as any compiled six games into a season. Duke, meanwhile, has basically locked down a one-seed at this point with wins over Kentucky, Louisville, OSU, VCU, and Minnesota. I be like dang.
As for Michigan itself, they're third. Winn points out the decreasing reliance and increased effectiveness of the pick and roll:
1. Overall, their percentage of P&R possessions has dropped from 18.0 to 14.5, according to Synergy.
2. P&Rs still make up a big portion of Burke's game, but when he does them, he's passing 55.6 percent of the time, as compared to 44.9 last year. His pass/shoot ratio out of P&Rs is the opposite of what it was in '11-12.
3. His derived offense from all P&R possessions is 1.127 PPP -- way up from 0.978 PPP last season. He has to force fewer shots, and he has better passing options on the perimeter.
I'm surprised the pick and roll was only 18% of Michigan's shot generation last year. I wonder what it was in year two of Darius Morris.
Stealing Ace's thunder a bit. Gareon Conley visits OSU this Thursday and Michigan on the 14th($) for what is shaping up to be a very large recruiting weekend; newly re-offered David Dawson will also be in after an OSU visit.
A note on the Dawson stuff: I'm surprised that opinion is divided on whether re-extending an offer to the kid is a good idea. The guy has had a rough go of it this year with his father dying unexpectedly and if Michigan is back in the picture it's because he manned up, went to Michigan, and laid it out. Weigh the twitter blasts against swallowing your pride and doing that as a 17-year-old. If Hoke thinks he's good, he's good. Michigan has been meticulous about getting quality kids after The Process forced them to take a couple fliers on kids they didn't really know.
Meanwhile, the increasingly-infamous Policy about committed recruits visiting other places is way overblown. Dawson got his offer pulled because he was not upfront; Michigan is still recruiting Conley after he decommited. All the policy means is "don't think you're saving a spot in Michigan's class if you're visiting other schools."
Michigan has two states of recruiting:
- COMMITTED: Keep out of trouble and keep your grades up and you will be in the class. We will stand by you if you have a bad year or get injured. You do not take visits to other schools. If you do, they automatically move you into the other category.
- UNCOMMITTED: If you have an offer they'll continue to recruit you but they can revoke that offer at any time until they move you into the other category by mutual agreement. If your leg explodes tough cookies.
Notably absent is "COMMITTED, BUT…" Committed-but is an extremely annoying recruiting state that recently-offered AZ OL Kenny Lacy provides an excellent example of:
Lacy is a UCLA commitment that was also offered by Michigan this week. His consideration of other schools, however, is not a new development. From the moment he committed to the Bruins back in September he mentioned his plan to still take trips to other campuses. …
"I am committed (to UCLA) and I originally did it because I felt strongly that is where I want to go. But I was upfront with (UCLA assistant) Coach (Adrian) Klemm from the beginning that I would still take trips, and he was OK with that. I just want to make sure I am doing the right thing and making the right decision."
This is an offense against the English language, and that's probably why Hoke doesn't go for it. Also it's a fiction: Lacy is one-way committed to UCLA. He expects UCLA to be committed to him—he would be pissed if the Bruins took some other OL and were like "sorry full up." He reserves the right to flit off to somewhere else late.
Michigan isn't playing that game, and that is the extent of The Policy. You get two categories. Pick one. None of this half-in half-out stuff.
Prognosticator hat. One man's impression of how things will work out:
- Conley: MICHIGAN by a nose. Last visit, Oregon doesn't appear to be going for him hard or at all at this point, parents pushing for M. OSU visit just a one-off Thursday instead of a full official.
- Dawson: MICHIGAN. Really seemed to regret how things worked out now; doubt Michigan would re-offer without a good idea of how the story ends.
- Derrick Green: MICHIGAN. Options: fired coach, fired coach, Ole Miss, place that will be nuked by NCAA in near future. Early enrollment make it very hard for fired coach places to catch up. With the dead period, a guy who gets hired today would have about two weeks to build a relationship. Ole Miss or Michigan? Since the kid isn't from Mississippi that has to be no contest. If it is Ole Miss, I swear to never set foot in that state because I won't be able to leave.
- Leon McQuay: Vanderbilt, but if James Franklin gets snapped up by someone else that would probably tip the scales to Michigan.
- LaQuon Treadwell: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. Seems like if he was going to drop to Michigan he already would have. Maybe he's just indecisive.
- Michigan adds wildcard or two. That would put them at 25 give or take the status of the longsnapper, who I know I know they said would be getting a full ride but we heard the same thing with Morales; dollars to donuts the deal is he is at the top of the walk-on board permanently. They're at 25 now pending Mike Jones not getting a fifth year and Lewan entering the draft, so even if the LS is on full scholarship it would only take one extra piece of attrition for Michigan to have extra room. That's almost inevitable. You can see that they've offered a half-dozen players lately, mostly OL and LBs. I'd guess they add one or the other, with Cal OL commit Cameron Hunt the random guess I'm making. More likely they will pull someone out of nowhere a la Willie Henry.
It would be weird to have two decommitted guys recommit—in my recollection only one decommit has ever re-upped with Michigan: Will Campbell. But that's the way my wind is blowing to day you guys.
FAIL FAIL FAIL FAIL FAIL FAIL FAIL
It's almost as if athletic directors cannot consider the consequences of their actions. UNLV's AD after participating in a mock playoff assemblage:
"Wow, is this committee going to have pressure," Livengood said. "The thing that jumps out at me is that there are just four teams, it's not enough of a sample. I was not a proponent of going larger than four, and this changed my mind totally."
Sure you weren't, UNLV dude.
Meanwhile, this committee assembled to prevent mistakes like Stanford getting picked over Oregon last year because Oregon played and lost to LSU while Stanford did not made the exact same mistake in reverse by selecting Oregon over Stanford because Stanford played ND and lost (in overtime on a terrible call) while Oregon played Arkansas State, Fresno State, and Tennessee Tech in their nonconference schedule and Stanford has to beat a good UCLA team again to win the Pac-12. Way to reward scheduling, guys.
As always, people in charge of stuff are just in charge of stuff and may or may not deserve to be.
Etc.: Zak Irvin off to a hot start as the man on his HS team post Gary Harris. Nebraska and OU agree to a series in 2021 and 2022. Yost Built previews this weekend's hockey series against Ferris. Hockey has a lot of talent coming in next year. Orson interviews the populace at The Game.
|WHAT||Michigan at Bradley|
|WHERE||Carver Arena, Peoria, Illinois|
|WHEN||4 PM Eastern, Saturday|
|LINE||Michigan –15 (Kenpom)|
Bradley is, shall we say, a step down in competition from NC State; the Braves finished 7-25 last year, their 2-16 conference record good for last in the Missouri Valley Conference. Returning four starters this season, they should be improved. They should also lose to Michigan, but I probably didn't need to tell you that.
While the talent level isn't tournament-quality (pick a tournament, really), Bradley posts a pretty stellar roster of names. To wit:
- Starting point guard and leading scorer Walt Lemon Jr.
- Starting guard Dyricus Simms-Edwards
- Starting forwards Tyshon Pickett and Will Egolf
- Freshman guard Ka'Darryl Bell
- And the kicker, sophomore forward Shayok Shayok
Shayok Shayok, yo. He's no Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje, but I'll take it.
While Lemon leads Bradley in scoring, his shooting numbers (51.0 2P%, 18.8 3P%) are down significantly from last season (52.1 2P%, 34.5 3P%) as he's having difficulty honing in from the outside. He's also the team's top distributor, but has had problems with turnovers both last year (24.8% TO rate) and this year (22.3%).
Simms-Edwards is a bit undersized for a 2/3 at 6'3", 200, but Michigan's wings will have to be careful on the drive—Simms-Edwards has 17 steals in just six games. Bradley started a third guard, Jalen Crawford, in their most recent game against Central Michigan; he's just 6'2", 195, so both Tim Hardaway and Nik Stauskas will enjoy a significant size advantage when the Braves go man-to-man. Crawford's played a hair less than half of the available minutes this season, though, so we'll see how often coach Geno Ford goes to this lineup—probably not often considering Michigan's size.
If Ford doesn't start Crawford, he'll put 6'5" senior Jake Eastman at the three; he's shooting a torrid 65.6% inside the arc last year but that's well out of line from his 44.4% mark last year. Otherwise, nothing he does really jumps off the stats page.
The team's best player is probably junior forward Tyshon Pickett, one of only two players on the team to take more than 40% of his shots at the rim; he converts his two-pointers at a 54.5% clip and is solid on the boards, especially on the offensive end. 6'9" center Will Egolf is very good on the defensive glass (22.2 DR%) but nearly invisible as an offensive rebounder (4.7%) due to the fact that he's mostly a spot-up shooter—over 75% of his shots are jumpers.
In fact, much of this game will take place on the perimeter on both ends of the floor. Bradley takes only 30% of their shots at the rim, while opponents are also staying mostly on the outside—probably because the Braves are currently ceding a 37.6 3P% while holding opponents to just 39.8% inside the arc. Michigan should be able to fare better from two than Bradley's previous opponents; this also could be a game where they're content to make it rain.
Bradley is 5-1 on the year, but they've only played one game against a top-200 team by KenPom standards: #101 South Florida, which beat them by 19. They do share a common opponent with Michigan: the Braves defeated IUPUI, a team the Wolverines pounded by 37 at Crisler, by seven points, albeit on the road. Their other wins came against such luminaries as Central, Tennessee Martin, Texas Pan American, and Eastern Illinois.
Here are the four factors numbers from both last and this year:
|Off. 11-12||Off. 12-13||Def. 11-12||Def. 12-13|
|eFG%||44.4 (321)||50.3 (112)||51.4 (265)||46.0 (109)|
|Turnover %||20.3 (174)||16.6 (24)||19.2 (224)||23.3 (85)|
|Off. Reb %||26.1 (318)||34.0 (124)||30.3 (140)||32.0 (166)|
|FTA/FGA||36.3 (171)||35.4 (173)||32.3 (75)||33.3 (131)|
This year's numbers are likely inflated by the soft schedule. Last year's numbers are bad, mmmkay? If a spot-up shooting squad can't really shoot, that's a problem.
Stop Pickett. Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary both had trouble with NC State's bigs around the basket; while Pickett isn't an NBA talent like C.J. Leslie, he's a competent offensive player and the biggest threat on this Bradley team. If GRIII and McGary can't slow him down, it's time to be concerned about Michigan's interior defense moving forward. More likely, they had a rough outing against a very talented team, and a power forward who's three inches shorter than Leslie and not a freak athlete should pose less of a problem.
Don't settle. Given Bradley's generosity in ceding the three this year, Michigan could become content to launch bombs without really attacking the basket. While Pickett and Egolf are both good shot-blockers, however, they're 6'6" and 6'9"—not the most intimidating front line that the Wolverines have come across. Hardaway, especially, needs to continue to go at the tin instead of settling for long jumpers, which he can get whenever he wants against an undersized backcourt anyway.
Keep doing what you've been doing. I mean, yeah.
Shayok Shayok! Likely won't contribute much. Just wanted to take the chance to type his name again. Though he has hit all three of his shots this year, so... Shayok Shayok!
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 15
What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + FLEX TE + fullback.
OH YOU BETTER BELIEVE I DID THIS WOO
Previously: Team 134
PACK YOUR BAGS
Players who will be starting unless injury derails them. Early entry possibilities are not taken into account because they're too unpredictable this far out.
By 2014, Jake Ryan's hair will reach the small of his back and his terror will reach former Yugoslav republics, spawning an incomprehensible evil only he can defeat.
Joe Bolden will spot him frequently but extremely hard to see anyone displacing him once he moves to a more natural MLB spot. May or may not be Demens++.
I mean surely this will be the year he breaks Jim Mandich's record, if it isn't slap me and call me Tressel what's that I couldn't read your very clear email detailing NCAA malfeasance
At this point has learned what a zone is and drops into it impeccably. Still large, probably playing field corner, does not have to be covered up as much deep. I call this guy RAYMON because that's his name.
In retrospect ranked too low in the last piece since like dude is kind of on pace to be #1 in passer rating if given enough sample size and competition is true freshman. Quality fifth-year option not starting lol you crazy.
Road-grading tackle will have competition from only then-redshirt-freshmen Chris Fox and Logan Tuley-Tillman; LTT is a project who will be at least a year from ready and Fox may be more of a left tackle type.
Should be fully healthy in 2014 and in the starting lineup no problem. Ligament stuff should be fully healed, and Countess is still the guy who locked down a starting job as a freshman and was headed on a stardom track before cruel fate intervened.
Would have to bust spectacularly to not ease into the starting lineup; only other competition is Willie Henry and maybe Maurice Hurst, and Pipkins is clearly ahead of Henry now.
If Kalis isn't starting at guard by his sophomore year, some very strange things will have happened, or an injury, which is not strange. But really I call this guy TIGER TESTICLES because Brady Hoke is searching for him on the black market to acquire his toughness via sympathetic magic.
UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS
Multi-purpose kicker has proven himself an adequate or better punter and displayed a big leg on kickoffs and certain long field goals. May lose one job to an as-yet-undetermined freshman specialist but should start at one spot or the other.
In 2014 James Ross sees the playcall in his head, Terminator-HUD style, and ruthlessly exterminates any living thing that gets in his way. His one weakness is Lou Holtz. In the distance, a wolf cries. Ross feels the same kinship he always does, scratching behind his ear.
Hopkins will be out the door and Houma is always going to be smaller than Kerridge. When Michigan needs a linebacker plowed, Kerridge will get the call first. Fullback is a veteran's position.
With Marvin Robinson and Thomas Gordon out the door, Wilson will be the most experienced safety on the roster; as a four-star he's got the cred and probably a year of starting under his belt. Does not know Aaron Paul; Still 'shopped, rookie.
Presumably at this point he will be a sixth offensive lineman or on the bench behind year two Jake Butt; both will get playing time; Williams figures to get more. Fish fear still reading zero. Or thereabouts, fear may increase if blocking technique does not.
FAIRLY SAFE BET
Touted Californian a better fit at left tackle than Braden and has a clear path to start. Name reminds Hoke of wearing a polo shirt on his trip to the North Pole, which will give him the edge on the redshirt freshmen.
Dileo, Gallon, and Jackson graduate, leaving Jerald Robinson, Darboh, and Chesson plus whoever ends up in the incoming recruiting class. Darboh did not redshirt and is the most likely guy to be a starter on the outside.
A rare downgrade from a projected starting job on 134, Miller's competition gets fierce in 2014 with Bars and Kugler both pressing from behind. He should hold onto the job but if he's smaller than the other guys and that's just not changing…
Smith is currently the best bet to see a majority of the carries in 2014. Rawls may be a fullback, and Smith fits the MANBALL paradigm better than Hayes or Norfleet. Derrick Green may supplant him here.
Furman and Gordon exit, leaving Thomas fending off Jeremy Clark and Allen Gant. Thomas is the most-hyped safety Michigan's brought in for a long while and has the athleticism to bump Wilson (back?) down to strong safety. The job is his to lose
IN A BATTLE
Time will not thin out the WDE battle here; in fact it may make it murkier with 6'6" pass rusher Taco Charlton presumably coming off a redshirt this year. Whoever wins the job will have earned it.
By 2014 the Cass Tech alum should be less tiny and prepping for a shot at a starting job in 2015; more likely he ends up in the Avery role for the duration as Michigan seeks out bigger guys on the outside.
Competition will be fierce at this point with Blake Bars and Kyle Bosch pressing; Bryant retains a size and experience edge but if Bosch is what he's supposed to be this will be a tight tight battle.
By this point his career, Strobel should pass the smaller Heitzman for the starting job, but candidates will be thick on the ground in 2014. Has a better recruiting pedigree, as well.
I've heard from multiple folks that Wormley was going to play extensively this year before his ACL injury. In 2014 he will be fully healthy and huge and coached up and should fend off Matt Godin and others. May be at SDE.
The second starting wide receiver slot is anyone's guess. Chesson has the experience edge and an endorsement from the near-flawless MGoBlog Sleeper of the Year award. Fast, lanky leaper will hopefully be Braylon to Darboh's Avant.
Potentially 404 FILE NOT FOUND here due to MANBALL. If they do have a smallish receiver who specializes in screens and end arounds, they'll have converted Hayes or it'll be an incoming freshman.
PUSHING FROM BEHIND
QB Shane Morris—raring to go after hopeful redshirt
RB Dennis Norfleet—make this man make plays
RB Thomas Rawls—Kevin Grady 2.0
WR Jaron Dukes—Junior Hemingway 2.0?
WR Pick An Apostroph'd Michigan Sleeper—one of Csont'e York or Da'Mario Jones will play
TE Jake Butt—strapping lad will be a matchup problem
C Blake Bars—could also play G if needed
C Patrick Kugler—son of Steelers OL coach should be ready to go early.
G Kyle Bosch—reportedly the most ready of the 2013 class to compete right away
T Chris Fox—will have to wait on LTT so should be the third tackle
DE Keith Heitzman—in the rotation for sure
NT Willie Henry—late add from Glenville will be a major wild card
DT Matt Godin—run stuffer sort
WDE Frank Clark—will rotate with Beyer.
WDE Mario Ojemudia—will either be an impact rusher or off the radar by now
MLB Joe Bolden—probably a quasi-starter by this point.
ILB Royce Jenkins-Stone—Ross backup probably.
ILB Ben Gedeon—hanging around
CB Jourdan Lewis—Cass guy but bigger than most.
CB Delonte Holowell—will push at nickel. Has stopped tweeting : (
S Jeremy Clark—prospect of a 6'4" free safety entices