i like 'em both
So you saw Michigan's backup plan in case Denard gets knocked out early in a competitive game. The plan was Bellomy. And you saw Bellomy. With regard to the skills, talent, and preparation required to be a competitive Big Ten quarterback, Bellomy was terrible. The offense immediately imploded, Michigan's Rose Bowl chances dropped to "not likely" and we were left facing the bleakness of a Robinson-less future.
So long as nards were left to nard we were perfectly content to ignore things like an apparent lack of receiver talent, or whether the redshirt freshman backup QB we snake oiled away from Purdue could perform well enough in an important game scenario that nobody would think to ask about Jack Kennedy. We could even be blasé about what appears to be persistent offensive coaching mistakes. It was all masked by Wheeeeee!! Saturday the whee was taken away and we got our first real glimpse of the structure they're building underneath it. We've got questions.
1. When your freshman QB is 4 of 21 with 4 interceptions on the year, why not try the junior 5-star quarterback you've got playing receiver?
Everyone can pick a moment. For me it was Russell's first completion of the game, a 12-yard pass to Kerridge:
Alright open man! Get there! … It's still not there. Okay coverage isn't there yet either. But what's taking so long? Did it just sail? No it's on target. Okay here it comes. Catch! First down on the Utah thirty-eigh…oh dear god.
We already knew how bad it could get, but this suddenly looked like we had an outer bound for how good it could get. The feet weren't set, and a guy was coming toward his face, and he got rid of it to the open receiver for 12 yards. Except Kerridge had been open over there for several seconds. And then with that entire windup the ball delivered is a full Sheridan.
With the opponent blitzing their brains out there's going to be open receivers, and Bellomy can learn to find them quicker. But the guys can't stay open so long that defenders won't arrive sometime during the three seconds the ball's in the air. The weird dropsies when Bellomy is throwing the ball could be related to this as well. Accustomed to catching zippy Denard passes, the receivers I imagine are getting thrown off by the the extra half-second of waiting for the ball to arrive. They're losing focus, putting their minds downfield or setting off internal alarms that the coverage is arriving. You'll note in this game more than a few of Russell's open targets were lit up upon reception—the personal foul on Jackson is a good example. Simply the anticipation of such a hit is a known cause of drops.
The scary lack of arm strength raised a few questions, like why he was recruited in the first place if a cannon is a pre-req for Borgesian offense, but a more pressing and more dire query is how bad can Gardner be if they've got this dude under center instead of him?
He's playing receiver. In fact, for all his faults at receiver, he's better at that than our other options. It falls a little flat to say if he's not out there Jeremy Jackson would be, since Jeremy Jackson is out there all the damn time. More to the point, Gardner practiced all week at receiver, and sending him in unprepared would have been unfair, would undermine his confidence, and probably resulted in yackety crap like that which ended the 2011 Michigan State game.
Your brain as it watched Bellomy could not compute this because fan brains tend to hit the panic button and authorize the flinging of excrement in the hopes of finding anything that sticks. This is why it nodded sagely at things like "throw Cullen Christian in there" when the 2010 secondary was staggeringly bad. It cannot compute that things could possibly get worse. The thing is, things can possibly get worse. Obviously the coaches felt that putting an unprepared Gardner in to run "Gardner and stuff" wasn't an option.
Hoke made sure to stress the "if you don't practice during the week at quarterback you don't play" thing in his postgame presser, getting it in as a response to questions about Denard's readiness for Minnesota. I take that as a not-so-subtle reminder that this staff has more patience than the last one, and more patience than the fan-brain. Their plan seems to be if Denard goes down in-game it's Bellomy, but if we lose Robinson for a week or more, Gardner will be preparing for that game.
[More things I don't want to ask after THE JUMP]
Last year Minnesota flirted with being the worst Big Ten team in about 50 years until they had the audacity to win games at the end of the year. Ugh, as if.
Anyway, Illinois has just lost to Indiana to go to 0-4 in the league and it's time to fire up ILLINIQUEST. Traditional weird mascot:
Let's do it.
The worst team in Big Ten history has no wins and no ties; nonconference doesn't matter; 1930 is the cutoff since before that teams played highly variable schedules. Teams from WWII are included. We are going on a straight ranking by scoring ratio, which is:
point scored / (points scored + opponent points scored)
This should help normalize for the fact that football has gotten progressively higher-scoring as the years have progressed.
If they lose all their games Illinois will be the worst team since X if they do Y…
2005: Lose all their games
The last winless Big Ten team was 2005 Illinois.
1981: Lose and finish with scoring ratio below 21%
2005 Illinois managed 21% and their 1997 team matched that. The 1981 Northwestern Wildcats scored 75 points in nine league games but gave up 425 for a scoring ratio of 15%.
1961: Lose and finish with scoring ratio below 15%
1961 Illlinois never reached double digits or came within two touchdowns of an opponent (23-9 versus Purdue was their closest game) and had a scoring ratio of 12.3%.
1960: Lose, scoring ratio below 12.3%
1960 Indiana managed just 11.8.
1957: Lose, scoring ratio below 11.5%
1944: Lose, scoring ratio below 8.9%
Iowa 1944 set a low bar, and then they lost to Iowa Pre-Flight, though Iowa Pre-Flight was 10-1 that year.
Pretty Much Ever: Lose, scoring ratio below 8.7%
Harry Kipke's 1934 Wolverines managed this.
Illinois is currently on pace to be the worst Big Ten team since…
Illinois's scoring percentage stands at 21%. The Illini are a couple of bad games from falling to 1981, but they're scoring too much to be threatening the 1960s like Minnesota did last year. Those Northwestern teams were horrible almost beyond modern comprehension, and the league isn't good enough to pound bad teams as much as they should be.
NEXT WEEK: Illinois takes on undefeated Ohio State.
Purdue's nowhere near as depressing as certain past teams: their scoring ratio is currently 33%.
[44 minutes in length... not much Big Ten to talk about this week.]
I UNFAIRLY MALIGN ACE. Ace almost walks out!
BELLOMY BLAME APPORTIONED. Fun fun fun fun.
VARIOUS GRUNTY NOISES IN PLACE OF ANALYSIS BECAUSE WHAT IS THERE TO ANALYZE?
DEFENSE STILL GRINDING. Pretty dang good you guys.
TALKIN' BIG TEN WITH JAMIEMAC. Indiana's chances at making the Big Ten championship game come in for extensive discussion. BIG TENNNN!
The usual links:
- Be an organ donor. Beat Ohio. Save lives.
- Mario Ojemudia has a "thing" and "stuff." You think I'm making this up but I'm not.
- Denard has a tingly thingamaling that has not completely resolved itself yet.
"Sun came up on Sunday" / file
“I want to thank Wolverines for Life and the transplant center for all they do. To Tucker, who you heard from earlier. We’re glad to have you here and glad to be part of it. I know we have a couple guys who are pretty involved who were part of it. Thanks for that.
“As far as where we’re at right now football-wise, we need to do a better job from the perspective of a coaching standpoint, because it starts right there. It starts with me. We need to play better football. We need to play better in the red zone from an offensive standpoint. And part of that and most of that is you have to be able to run the football in the red zone. That’s an important place because in the throw game, it shrinks down there a little bit. Your verticalness of what you can do and being able to run the football is a big part of it. We didn’t do that well obviously the other night, but that’s something that will take a front seat and center during this week as we get ready to go to Minneapolis. It’s an important game for multiple reasons. Number one, it’s in our devision. It’s an opportunity that we get back out on the field, which we need to go to, and the Brown Jug is part of that great rivalry and tradition and trophy that we’d like to keep here in Ann Arbor.”
Today's recruiting roundup covers the latest on Gareon Conley, last weekend's high school action, hopefully the last word on David Dawson, and more.
Conley Plans Visits, Emphasis On "Plans"
2013 cornerback commit Gareon Conley recently received an offer from Ohio State and is receiving serious interest from Oregon. After his game on Friday—in which he hauled in yet another long touchdown pass—he told multiple outlets that he plans to take visits, which would obviously negate his commitment to Michigan. From Josh Helmholdt, with emphasis added ($):
"I'm taking visits somewhere else because Michigan was the first ever college I visited so I want to see what's out there," Conley said.
Asked how he would respond if the choice came down to taking visits or remaining committed to Michigan, Conley said he had not decided on that or spoken with Michigan coaches about it recently.
"I haven't talked to them in awhile, but I've got to talk to them about it," Conley said.
We know the coaching staff's position on this issue: if Conley takes visits, he's gone. He hasn't spoken to them yet about potential visits to Oregon and Ohio State, so it's possible that this ends up the same way as his planned trip to Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, which he cancelled after talking with Brady Hoke; it's also worth noting that he hasn't scheduled any visits yet. The fact that potential visits have now come up multiple times in the past few weeks, however, suggests that his commitment is tenuous, and with months to go before signing day it feels like a 50/50 shot at best that he sticks.
The obvious backup plan—and he shouldn't really be called this, especially since Michigan has recruited him all along—is five-star FL DB Leon McQuay III, who will be on campus for the Northwestern game. Tremendous adds a couple less-heralded, as-yet-unoffered options in Cincinnati commit Aregeros Turner—who camped at Michigan over the summer—and Cincinnati De La Salle prospect Jaleel Hytchye (gesundheit).
The Team, The Team, The *BASS HIT*
Logan Tuley-Tillman's senior highlights are now available on YouTube. They begin with a photo montage backed by Bo Schembechler's "The Team" speech, which is obviously fantastic. Then a song by something called a "Driicky Graham" fades in—as Bo's speech continues—and I'll be busy collecting brain matter off my floor for the next few hours now.
Oh, there's also lots of Tuley-Tillman burying people, and even some defensive highlights where he displays impressive athleticism for a guy his size, which is nice.
[Hit THE JUMP for a roundup of last weekend's high school games, the latest on David Dawson, and more.]
K-State? Admittedly somewhat for the novelty of ranking K-State first and a desire to see the poll at large reflect the closeness of the top two teams, but schedules are comparable with Alabama. Blew Texas Tech about how Alabama blew out Mississippi State.
Untying the Georgia-Florida-South Carolina-LSU mess. Georgia actually still loses this. They are 1-1 in this group of teams with one blowout loss and no other quality wins. Florida is 2-1 and beat A&M. LSU is 1-1 and beat A&M. South Carolina is 1-2, has no other quality wins, and beat Georgia raw. Ranking them behind Georgia is punishing them for losing to LSU by two points while Georgia doesn't play them.
UCLA? Nebraska win gains quality—I guess, I mean—and they beat Arizona State narrowly as the end of the poll crapped on themselves.
Duke? Hey, they've had more good wins than Mississippi State.
Why you hate Mississippi State? The Bulldogs' nonconference schedule features Jackson State, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee, and Troy. Their conference wins are over Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee, who are collectively 0-17 in the SEC. They just got hammered by Alabama. So… yeah, they edge Boise because Boise lost to a 5-4 MSU team instead of Alabama but they are essentially a mid-major right now. That they were 11th before the Alabama game is probably the dumbest thing polls have done this year. I'm part of that since I had them 15th last week. Derp.
Similarly, I had Louisville way too high last week. Best win: UNC, maybe Cincinnati. Projected fate against USC: not good.