RUTGERS BEAT WISCONSIN. SERIOUSLY. THEY DID. (source)
Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column
Weren’t any Big Ten basketball games last night, so I bumped this column to Tuesday.
Table of Contents
Week II Results
Post-Week II Big Ten Standings
Team of the Week: Rutgers
Player of the Week: Travis Trice
Stat of the Week: League-Wide Efficiency
Game Recap Graphics
- Michigan’s Week That Was
Michigan’s Week Ahead
Week III Schedule
1. Week II Results
Home teams held serve most of the week – only Michigan (over Penn St.), Ohio St. (over Minnesota in overtime), Michigan St. (over Iowa), and Maryland (over Purdue) managed to get an elusive Big Ten road win and, to be fair, most of those came against lower-half teams. MSU’s win over Iowa was particularly impressive: after trailing 39-28 at halftime, they hit eight three-pointers to outscore the Hawkeyes 47-20 in the second stanza.
Ohio State played the two closest games of the week, both on the road: the Buckeyes managed to beat Minnesota in overtime by two points and lost to Indiana by three. Minnesota had another close loss – to Michigan – later in the week. Michigan State was perhaps the most impressive team of the week: they destroyed Indiana and eventually pulled away to win comfortably at Iowa.
More on Rutgers’s shocking upset over Wisconsin a little bit later.
2. Post-Week II Big Ten Standings
After two weeks, there are four teams tied for first place (and six tied for first place in the loss column). Maryland has the worst efficiency margin of the top four, but they have won two games on the road (against Michigan State and Purdue). Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan are all fairly comparable from an efficiency standpoint, though the Spartans probably have played the toughest schedule thus far.
The conference race is still far from any clarity. Wisconsin’s loss sets them back with the rest of the teams chasing and 10 of the league’s 14 teams are within a game of first place.
Click on image to enlarge
3. Team of the Week: Rutgers
Didn’t take long for Rutgers to ring up its first signature Big Ten win (source)
A few nights ago, I decided to brave the cold and head out to our favorite undergraduate library to play school for a little while. “The only Big Ten game on right now is Rutgers – Wisconsin,” I thought. “Even though Frank Kaminsky’s out, what could possibly happen?”
RUTGERS BEAT WISCONSIN.
With due apologies to Michigan State, who probably had the best week of any Big Ten team, Rutgers deserves mention for pulling what will probably stand as the biggest upset in Big Ten play this year – what very well may be the worst team in the league beating what’s likely the best. Yes, Kaminsky sat out of the game with concussion-like symptoms and yes, Traevon Jackson exited the game because of a leg injury that will keep him sidelined for a while.
Regardless of all that, it was an impressive showing for the Scarlet Knights: Kadeem Jack and Myles Mack each scored at least 20 points and, as a team, Rutgers posted a gaudy 1.20 points per possession. Despite the injuries to Kaminsky and Jackson, Wisconsin’s offense actually did alright (1.10 points per possession, at least a dozen points from each of Nigel Hayes, Sam Dekker, and Bronson Koenig), but the Badgers’ heretofore excellent defense was exposed. Rutgers shot 20-35 (57%) from two, so it wasn’t as if this were some anomalous barrage of three-pointers.
Besides Duke’s barrage of three-pointers earlier this season, this was Wisconsin’s worst defensive outing on the season. It was Rutgers’s best offensive game. Since I didn’t see the game, it’s hard to make any declarative statements, so here’s this solid recap from B5Q. As they note, Rutgers did trail by 12 at halftime, but 67% shooting (with four made threes) in the second half was enough to carry them to a win.
The homework that I did on that Sunday evening was due today and the professor bumped it back to Thursday… definitely could have waited on that in order to watch one of the most bizarre Big Ten games we’ll see this season.
Rutgers also lost to Nebraska by 16 on the road this past week, but that’s neither here nor there (I guess).
Previously: Maryland (Week I).
[After THE JUMP – the rest]
A Youngstown reporter is asserting that Michigan is on the verge of hiring Youngstown State DBs coach Mike Zordich:
I'm told that YSU Assistant Mike Zordich is leaving the Penguins to take a assistant coaching position on Jim Harbaugh's staff at Michigan
— Chad Krispinsky (@ChadK426) January 13, 2015
This would be bad news for Roy Manning. If Zordich is in fact in, there's just one staff member left and that would likely go to some sort of TE/OL coach, whether that's Jimmie Dougherty or someone else.
Zordich is an interesting guy: a Penn State alum who had an 12-year NFL career and only started coaching in his 40s, first in high school and then a brief tenure with the Eagles as a QC coach in 2009 and 2010 and then as safeties coach the next two years; he's been at Youngstown since. Bo Pelini was going to keep him on, FWIW.
Michigan (10-6, 3-1 B1G) at
Ohio State (13-4, 2-2)
Value City Arena,
|WHEN||7 pm ET, Tuesday|
|LINE||Ohio State -10 (KenPom)|
PBP: Mike Tirico
Analyst: Dan Dakich
Right: Don't mock me, Thad. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
This game is all about upside for Michigan, as nobody really expects them to win this one: Ohio State is 100-9 at home since 2009-10, the Wolverines haven't exactly impressed even during their back-to-back wins, and both KenPom and Vegas have the Buckeyes favored by ten.
Pull off the upset, though, and Michigan would suddenly have a signature win while sitting, however briefly, alone atop the conference standings. (Wisconsin, Maryland, and Michigan State don't play tonight.) To get to 12 conference wins—the likely target number for an NCAA bid—they're going to have to pull out an unlikely win or two, and this would certainly qualify.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
|G||3||Shannon Scott||Sr.||6'1, 185||74||21||Yes|
|Great defender, facilitates offense well, still not much of a shooter.|
|G||0||D'Angelo Russell||Fr.||6'5, 180||79||29||No|
|Volume scorer. Great outside shooter, even off dribble. Solid passer, too.|
|F||12||Sam Thompson||Sr.||6'7, 200||73||17||Yes|
|Ridiculous hops. Very good finisher. Not a good shooter.|
|F||2||Marc Loving||So.||6'7, 215||63||20||No|
|50% at both 2P and 3P. Gets to line. Underwhelming rebounder.|
|C||23||Amir Williams||Sr.||6'11, 250||46||17||Very|
|Effective finisher, good rebounder, blocks lots of shots. Turnover-prone.|
|F||1||Jae'Sean Tate||Fr.||6'4, 190||43||20||Yes|
|Excellent on the boards, good finisher, active defender. Turnover-prone.|
|G||15||Kam Williams||Fr.||6'2, 175||40||18||No|
|Efficient scorer sticks mostly to spot-up threes.|
|C||55||Trey McDonald||Sr.||6'8, 240||28||16||Very|
|Very good rebounder, especially on offense. Decent rim protector.|
The Buckeyes dropped just two non-conference games, both to top-ten teams, falling at #9 Louisville and dropping a neutral-court game to #9 UNC. They played the rest of their non-conference schedule at home and won every game handily, though the top-ranked team they beat was #95 Marquette.
They're off to just a 2-2 start to Big Ten play. OSU lost their opener at home to Iowa when freshman phenom D'Angelo Russell had a rough day from the field and the defense turned in an uncharacteristically poor performance. After a blowout home victory over Illinois and a thrilling overtime triumph at Minnesota, they fell by three points at Indiana on Saturday when, once again, Russell went cold.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
My biggest takeaway from last night is Michigan will need a very strong and well-coached front seven if Harbaugh is to pull a 1969 next Thanksgiving weekend.
The key to Michigan's dramatic defensive improvement in 2011 was that Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison gave Michigan's defense an identity. They went to a 4-3 under, single-gap run defense that Mattison brought from the Ravens, and over the course of the year found the best fits for the guys on hand.
|Durkin knew Mattison from his Charlie Weis pants days. [photo: Joe Raymond|Freep]|
You remember, despite the relative success of this transition, that some fits were more or less awkward than others. Jake Ryan was a perfect SAM. Ryan Van Bergen worked as a 3-tech or a 5-tech. Mike Martin played nose because nobody else could, and his disruption was deployed with a lot of stunts, or weird stuff like when they came up in an Okie and Martin dropped back to essentially MLB. Roh at WDE was a solid run defender but wasn't built to take advantage of that WDE-tackle matchup that's supposed to produce natural pressure.
Last year of course they went to a 4-3 over base alignment, making Jake Ryan into an awkward MLB because the alternative was Beyer as a really awkward 5-tech. The kicker: offenses were forcing Michigan to play nickel 50% to 90% of snaps, which made Ryan into either an undersized defensive end, or a guy on the sideline.
JMFR is gone but Mattison will still be around, joined by new defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. At the Cleveland event last night I suggested Mattison’s role will be as sensei to Durkin, who hasn’t really flown solo yet (Muschamp was very involved with that defense).
It adds up to a belief that Michigan won’t change its defensive style for 2015, but what is that style? Coverages are another matter; just speaking to the front seven: should they be the under that they recruited for, or the over they transitioned to?
Refresher on 4-3 philosophy
Mattison and Durkin both coached (Durkin as a graduate assistant for one year) under Bob Davie at Notre Dame, who with Jackie Sherrill developed the Texas A&M "Wrecking Crew" defense. Jimmy Johnson (another Sherrill acolyte) took it a step further in Miami, and Pete Carroll now runs in Seattle.
You’ll note that they used different alignments. Johnson’s defenses were the genesis of the 4-3 over, and so influential that this is what people usually mean by “4-3” defense, as opposed to Tom Landry’s base version. Carroll’s been coaching the 4-3 under since he learned it directly from Monte Kiffin, who developed it at Nebraska.
The under alignment was not the base concept; the real philosophy in Kiffin's terms was to give his defensive linemen simple assignments so they could play with aggression and disruption. The benefit of one-gapping is no defensive linemen stopping to diagnose the play. Once the ball is snapped, all of these defenses want those brains thinking "go!", "put my hat in a gap," "be a factor," and "attack that block!"
Mattison used a mix in Baltimore because he had Ngata, but at Michigan he’s had an almost exclusively gap-attacking defense. The question has been what alignment to run it out of, and that’s a question of which players fit it best.
(Start at 1:17)
So which alignment is Michigan going with this year? I think again it’s a question of personnel? I make diagram.
Michigan’s short on red dudes
The above is my attempt at showing the spectrum of qualities emphasized by the front seven positions in the 4-3 over versus the 4-3 under. I also gave a small approximation of color fits for guys I know something about (Spur-like objects like Gant and Wangler left out because I ran out of colors to depict DB-ness).
It's meant to show what we mean when we talk about the why nothing's a perfect fit for the talent on hand. Suggestions for improved shading are welcome. Takeaway from this experiment: Michigan's front the next few years may be better at throwing out different looks than it will be at rotating through shark teeth.
If you trust my judgment on the shading above, the over appears to remain the best fit for the guys we have, provided they can find some backup ends (the glut of DE/DT tweeners remains). As Mattison mentioned in the video above, the half of the time you’re in nickel to counter a 3- or more-wide look, you’re in an over anyway. D.J. Durkin used a lot of smaller players and changed things up a ton at Florida, and I expect the future will be a truly multiple defense with versatile front seven players. I expect when they can’t run Ojemudia and Charlton out there at the ends, Durkin will experiment with linebacker-ish dudes out there.
Friday, January 9, 2015
UM 0 Minn 1 EV 07:03 C. Reilly from Collins and M. Reilly
Minnesota passes back and forth along the boards, and Tyler Motte overskates in pursuit. Once the puck is back on the stick of the defender he’s responsible for there’s little he can do. Collins easily gets a shot off, though it’s an easy save for Racine; he’s not screened and is square to the shooter.
The problem is that he gives up a huge rebound. To his credit, the rebound is directed to the corner as much as possible. That’s little consolation in relation to the final result, however. Serville has floated back toward the right side, but he has no idea that there’s a Minnesota player behind him. He needs to turn his head to check sooner than he does, because by the time he sees there’s someone there the puck is on Reilly’s stick.
He’s too far away to recover, and Racine is in the same situation. There’s no way he’s going to get across the crease in time to stop an undefended shot like that, and it’s an incredibly easy goal for Minnesota.
[After THE JUMP: Hyman hyperbole, lots of goals]
Paging Dr. Stalin
getting our glares on
Will there be a roster purge a la Charlie Strong or can we expect Harbaugh to try and retain almost everyone?
I'm not a fan of purges; part of a leader's job is to gain buy-in, but they do happen. Some attrition will certainly happen, but I'd like to not dig a huge roster hole we're digging out of for 3+ seasons.
Strong's purge is not likely to repeat if only because that kind of massive roster depletion is just about unprecedented. Strong walked into a combination of bad timing (two guys suspended for sexual assault) and no discipline after the Mack Brown decline had truly festered. Strong read guys the riot act…
Sources said all of the players in question were told that Strong was watching them closely dating back to February, when they were part of a group pulled aside and told that their attitude and/or behavior had to change.
As part of that conversation, players were told they’d be subject to more random drug tests, sources said.
…and they did not respond. That led to a lot of guys out the door.
Michigan has already experienced one of these, as Kyle Bosch was brought into a meeting with Harbaugh and told there would be some conditions on his continued membership:
“I was at school all day, getting ready,” Bosch told Sporting News on Tuesday morning. “Then I met with Coach Harbaugh and I didn’t expect the transfer. That was not my original intent when I went up there yesterday. … This was very untimely. If it was my intention to transfer, I would have done that a long time ago.”
Bosch said his meeting with Harbaugh produced two options: stay with the program with stipulations (he did not say what they were) or transfer.
The kind of things Bosch dealt with over the past year are best left unspecified, but if he didn't want to meet the law laid down by Harbaugh it's best that he find somewhere else to be.
Bosch is an exception. Hoke was very good at getting guys who work hard and go after their schoolwork, thus the APR and extremely low transfer rate. That rate is about to pick up for a lot of reasons (remember that even before the season ended Hoke mentioned two OL were headed out), but the departures won't rise to the level of a purge or leave Michigan alarmingly short-handed this September.
You can tell this is the case just by the recruiting numbers. Michigan has room for a class of 12 right now. Without epic departures that isn't going to get past 20, and a roster that only has to add 15 or 16 players is not in dire straights.
This staff versus previous staff.
Hi, I'm your DL coach. [Eric Upchurch]
Since the site has been 90% devoted to the assistant coaching rumors or hires for the past several days I wanted to throw a question at you.
The natural reaction in the wake of hiring Harbaugh and turning the page on the previous regime is to look at everything through rose colored glasses. At least until the first game we lose, people will mostly think he can do no wrong and every person he hires or recruits is a great fit.
If we take a step back, how do you feel the staff construction we will have next year compares to our reaction to the staffs that Rodriguez or Hoke hired in their first seasons? Do you see any areas that make you scratch your head or long for someone else?
There's no comparison. Hoke and Rodriguez both imported the large majority of their existing coaches and held on to Fred Jackson. Those coaches had experienced success—sort of in Hoke's case—in a specific context at a lower level of competition. Rodriguez fatally did not bring Jeff Casteel along; Hoke imported Greg Mattison and brought Al Borges with him.
- Is an in-demand OC/QB coach.
- Hired an in-demand DC.
- Kept Greg Mattison as a position coach.
- Hired the guy who built the Stanford ass-kicking machine.
- Hired Ty Wheatley in the recruiting-heavy RB slot.
- Hired an ex-NFL OC and successful college OC as a WR coach.
- Hired a special teams coordinator who has 15 years of crazy success.
Nobody on this staff is going to wander over to San Jose State after they're done at Michigan, and most of them have experienced impressive amounts of success outside of the Harbaugh context. With limited exceptions that latter was not true of anybody on either of the previous two staffs other than Greg Mattison.
If there's anything with this staff that makes me pause it's the still-hypothetical Dougherty hire. He's only had one year of TEs, and with the importance of those guys in the Harbauffense it seems like you'd want a guy with a long track record there, possibly with some OL coaching mixed in to help out Drevno. OC/OL is a lot on one plate.
But we don't know if that's actually going to come to fruition—given the timing here it's possible that Fisch swooped in on his spot. The last thing we heard about Dougherty was a Football Scoop report from three days ago—unreliable to start and increasingly so as we get further out without any confirmation. I'm beginning to think that's not happening.
[After the JUMP: search postmortem, these are my readers.]