fair point that
Michigan Out For McDowell?
Michigan entered last weekend with one last shot at impressing Malik McDowell before the top-50 prospect from Detroit made his Signing Day decision. With McDowell's parents firmly in Michigan's corner, the hope was that they'd help the coaches sway Malik from an apparent Michigan State lean during the Wolverines' in-home visit.
Michigan made their final push, and McDowell's recruitment still looks like it will come down to his wishes to attend MSU versus his parents' desire for him to go elsewhere. One problem: "elsewhere" now appears to mean "out of state," per TomVH ($):
“As far as myself, I think he should leave town. I think he should leave the state because he has some friends who aren’t athletes,” [Malik's father] Greg said. “I don’t want them to be a distraction. If he stays close to home, they’re capable of driving up and distracting him. I want him to establish himself on his own.”
McDowell's parents are pushing hard for him to choose either Florida State or Ohio State, Malik's two finalists not located in the state of Michigan. 247's Steve Wiltfong notes that Malik still wants to attend MSU; again, his father is quoted as being strongly against this ($):
“From when we talked Friday he’s coming around because he knows how adamant we are about him not attending Michigan State,” the elder McDowell said. “I don’t have anything bad to say against Michigan State but I don’t think they’re the school for my son. I think the coaches are cool and they’re establishing a good program, but this is my son and I choose to not want him there. If he were to choose Michigan State I don’t know what I would do. It is what it is. I just want my son away from this environment and Michigan. I want him out of here.”
Malik himself hasn't been available for comment in quite some time (aside from tweeting his top four last week) and that's unlikely to change before his planned 9:30am NSD announcement. All indications, however, point to him choosing any of the three schools besides Michigan.
[Hit THE JUMP for the latest wave of 2015 offers, Jashon Cornell's visit plans, ALABAMA DANCEOFF, and more.]
Check your spam folder? Faced with the prospect of a potentially contentious Signing Day presser, Michigan tried to defuse things by inviting select media to talk to Hoke, whereupon he could issue the standard claims that he isn't allowed to provide details. One group was notably absent.
Surprise! The Daily was not invited to Hoke's pow wow with reporters.
— Zach Helfand (@zhelfand) February 3, 2014
Not a huge surprise, that. But the guy who polished up some turds to net the football program its first-ever "major" violations is cool.
Meanwhile, the content. Michigan isn't actively trying to make themselves look bad here, but it's hard to tell. Hoke issued a statement denying any influence over the university's internal investigations, echoing a statement made by Mary Sue Coleman in response to a question no one is asking.
No one wants to know that. They want to know which of the following possibilities is true.
- No one in the OSCR or OIE bothered to tell Hoke that they had found Gibbons culpable in the 2009 incident on November 20th.
- Hoke was informed on November 20th that his kicker was getting expelled and played him against Iowa.
The lack of an answer there looks horrible, because #1 is more implausible than #2. As the Daily put it in an actually-quite-good unsigned editorial, "at best, this case indicates an unbelievable lack of communication between University units." Brady Hoke knows if you miss one damned class. A months-long rape investigation is on the radar.
They are hiding behind FERPA and, worse, "university policy"* when that law is probably not applicable and they certainly could answer generic questions about when the athletic department is notified that one of their players has an issue before the OSCR. The logical conclusion is that telling the truth would make Hoke and the department look bad.
Worse. I mean, they had Gibbons at the Bust ten days before he got expelled and got caught in a stupid lie trying to make his departure look better. They already look bad. The picture here is the athletic department not taking the OSCR seriously—not taking a finding of sexual assault seriously—even after they had determined to expel him. That is the assumption the data suggests, and no one will add more.
*[I wonder how the U would react if MGoBlog "policy" was to show up at pressers with the ol' jibbles out and about, repeating the last thing anyone said at maximum volume prefaced the world "no."
NO, WHY ARE YOU NAKED
NO, WHY ARE YOU REPEATING ME AT MAXIMUM VOLUME
NO, ARE YOU HAVING A STROKE
NO, ARREST THIS MAN
Saying you have a policy not to do something does not change whether or not you should do it.]
Also in looking bad. Bill Martin says he'd never heard that Gibbons was in trouble.
“An incident of that nature never came to my attention at all,” Martin said in a phone interview with The Michigan Daily.
Martin's tendency to be a space cadet makes that barely plausible for a moment, and then I remember that I knew something sketchy had happened with Brendan Gibbons in 2009. I didn't know much more than that, but apparently that still made me better informed than the athletic director.
One thing that does not seem that mysterious. The epic delay in Gibbons's case is a question raised by many; it seems obvious to me that the combination of the stricter University standard that was in fact implemented in August 2013 and the near-simultaneous wide attention brought by the Washtenaw Watchdogs article/rant made Gibbons's case tractable despite non-participation by the victim and put it at the front of everyone's mind. There is no conspiracy here, just massive stupidity.
Actual football things. At the media pow-wow, Hoke offered up some news bits, mostly bad things about injuries:
- Magnuson, Bryant, and Burzynski are out for spring. The former two had shoulder surgery; Burzynski is not a surprise since he tore his ACL midseason.
- Pipkins also out; also not a surprise with midseason ACL injury.
- Gardner will be "physically limited," no doubt with the world's worst case of turf toe.
The OL news is alarming. Magnuson is highly likely to be the opening-day starter at left tackle and did not play that spot last year. Bryant, meanwhile, has officially reached the point where it would be a shock if he was healthy enough to play consistently. He's a good example of where Michigan gets hurt by not oversigning: at a bunch of schools he would have been medicaled long ago and Michigan would have another shot at turning a recruit into a player.
Irvin. Here's Zak Irvin on The Journey:
Next up: Aaron Craft makes more pancakes!
Have-nots. New Miami (Not That Miami) head coach Chuck Martin took a virtual 200k paycut to take his new job:
Miami acquired Martin only after he agreed to forgo $650,000 at Notre Dame, a figure the Irish were willing to sweeten to coax him into staying. Martin, who received a five-year deal at Miami for $450,000 annually, said he wouldn’t have left “for just any MAC job” and was confident the infrastructure at Miami is sufficient to revitalize a program coming off a winless season.
That article has some stunning stats: in 2010 there were 37 assistants nationwide who made more than the average MAC head coach. In 2013 that number had shot up to 86. Bill Cubit got fired by WMU and ended up getting a raise to be Illinois's offensive coordinator. These days, a big time coordinator is looking at a major pay downgrade if he takes a low-level job.
Why? The Packers CEO claims that a successful unionization drive in college football would put "more pressure on the NFL to establish a developmental league." Uh… why, exactly? From the NFL's perspective the distribution of funds entering college football is irrelevant.
One very far off and potentially interesting impact it could have: if Northwestern wins and basketball does the same thing, that does create the possibility that the NCAA could affirmatively end one-and-done by collectively bargaining with their athletes.
Your shot: at least decent. Inside NU catches up with Elliot Gould, a former NLRB chairman, on Colter and company's shot at winning:
“The principle reason for that is their work — they have conditions of employment, they have compensation, they’re directed and supervised by the coaching staff — their work is not related to the educational enterprise,” he said.
Medical interns who are students have been allowed to unionize because they work very long hours outside of typical instruction. For athletes, that goes a step further, in that they are required to participate in their sports to remain on scholarship, even though those outside duties are far less educational than the duties of medical interns.
“Athletes are separate from the educational institution,” Gould said. “They’re supervised by coaches, not faculty involved in the educational enterprise.”
Gould was a Clinton appointee who would be inclined to see it in the kids' favor, sure, but he is also talking sense.
2/2/2013 – Michigan 52, Indiana 63 – 16-5, 8-1 Big Ten
Stauskas was barely involved, but they don't take pictures of guys hanging around at the three point line. [Chris Howell/Hoosier Scoop]
There was a second-half possession on which Nik Stauskas stood in the corner and watched, hands on hips. Zak Irvin—this team has more guys apparently missing a C in their names than any in the country, where is that on Kenpom—banged in a three pointer that I barely noticed before it went in, because I was distressed and looking at Stauskas to rescue things. He did not.
The only thing that was unique about this particular possession was the hands. The standing eventually became standard. This was because Yogi Ferrell, Indiana's lightning quick, generously-listed-at-six-foot-even point guard, was guarding him. Ferrell started out in much the same way as Gary Harris did, denying heavily on the perimeter, and for whatever reason back cuts against this behavior are infrequent nowadays. Michigan did not even attempt one. When Stauskas did get the ball he felt harried enough to dump it to someone else most of the time.
Stauskas was effectively shut off for most of the first half until late, when he attempted to back Ferrell down on one possession, and drive by him on another. The post-up resulted in a shot that was well off; the drive ended with a charge call as Stauskas extended his arm.
And that was that, really.
I thought that Stauskas would be pissed and Beilein would do something to get his star into the game. Over the past couple years, Michigan has an excellent track record when it comes to storming out of the locker room at the half and putting it on the opponent. There was not a hint of that in this game. The second half largely followed the first. Other than a couple of nice passes, Stauskas's contribution was limited to a couple of jacked late-clock shots and the standing around.
In Stauskas's stead, things fell on LeVert, Walton, and Robinson, far less efficient players who went about the business of being less efficient.
This was massively frustrating. Cat-quick or not, ball screens require hard decisions on the part of a defense. When Michigan did get into the Stauskas pick and roll offense a couple times in the second half, Michigan got quality looks at the basket. I have a ton of faith in John Beilein's overall genius because I have eyes frequently applied to basketball games, and seeing the lack of answers on his part was distressing. So, too, was Stauskas's growing passivity.
This was the second time this year that Stauskas had been eliminated from the offense. The first time was against Duke, and that was another listless loss where Michigan was tagging along behind the opponent with a series of LeVert drives that never seemed like they would come together into the surge Michigan needed to take the lead. Cut off the head and the rest of the team flails; unlike Trey Burke, opponents have shown an ability to do that with Stauskas.
Whether that's because of an inherent difference in their attitudes or just the fact that Burke brought the ball up most of the time while Stauskas gets involved in the offense after lining up on the wing, I don't know, but somehow, some way Michigan has to get the ball in the right hands. They are not good enough on defense to get away with nights featuring six shots from the man.
One call. I didn't have much problem with the refereeing in this one despite it being an Assembly Hall game. There were a couple of things each way that were wrong, sure. I was too busy being incensed about Stauskas's lack of involvement to really get any lather up about officiating.
But, man, if Derrick Walton gets what looked like a blazingly obvious charge call on Ferrell, this game changes significantly. That would have been Ferrell's second, knocking him out for about eight minutes, both freeing up Stauskas and removing 85% of Indiana's offense. I'm not sure what else Walton is supposed to do there: he was moving with Ferrell, square to the shooter, and got plowed in the chest. Ferrell got the same call a few minutes later, and it was the right one.
I have no idea what a charge is anymore, so I am now qualified to referee college basketball.
(The other thing that drove me nuts was Michigan getting a blocking call on a flop a few minutes after Indiana's flop didn't draw one.)
Our defensive stopper isn't stopping anything of late. LeVert draws the opposition's best perimeter scorer, and the results have been grim. Ferrell blazed the nets in this one, as did Gary Harris in the MSU game. While Purdue's guards didn't do much, they are Purdue.
After Ferrell's third late clock shot I started getting really frustrated with LeVert allowing Ferrell to take virtually uncontested jumpers, and then thought back to last year's Wisconsin game… why doesn't LeVert ever get a hand in anyone's face? He's six inches taller than Ferrell, he should be able to contest his shots. Instead there's a lack of awareness that leads to plenty of rise-and-fire threes that look like bad shots until you see the replay.
This could have been a super-ugly win you exhale and mutter something about road games after, except Indiana kept hitting shots they had to jack up with about two seconds on the shot clock. (This was a glacial 55 possession game.) Michigan's problem is that they let Indiana look like Jordan Taylor-era Wisconsin; almost all of their late jacked shots were actually decent looks. Compare that to the three Stauskas had to take from about 30 feet.
[Chris Howell/Hoosier Scoop]
Morgan up, except for the one thing. Jordan Morgan had an excellent game with ten rebounds, five of them offensive, to go with two blocked shots and two makes. His miss was blocked by Vonleh and immediately put back up by Morgan for two. His rotation on defense was part of the many, many late-clock situations Indiana found itself in, and the resulting makes were not really on him. He was pretty great.
The main exception, of course, was the free throw line, where Morgan was 1 of 5 with a critical missed front end late. That dropped his season percentage almost ten points and as the clock ticked down it was impossible to not look at Michigan's score and add in the missing two or three points even though the team's overall percentage at the line was about average.
Walton: improving, verging on improved. Thirteen points, six of them at the line. Walton's FT percentage has gone up six points in the last couple games and he's consistently chipping double digits more often than not. He's still not up to the task of taking over games in the fashion Michigan needed with Stauskas marginalized, but at this point a solidly productive night is the expectation.
Taking over games… is just not in the cards for GRIII. Like the Duke game, when Michigan was out of its element in the second half the burden fell on Caris. This was due in part to two or three ugly possessions earlier when Robinson tried to create and ended up with a bad shot or a turnover. Chastened, Robinson receded into the background again unless there was a transition opportunity.
It just is what it is. Robinson's NBA draft hype was always built on his ability to jump really high, not his skill level.
Spike limitations. This was a bad, bad matchup for Albrecht. He came in, got smoked a couple times by Ferrell, and then got yanked. He had a period of time in the second half where both he and Walton were in; he chased someone else around.
Stone-cold killer (via)
Yogi Ferrell (27 points, 7/8 3-pt) hit damn near everything, Indiana utilized Duke's blueprint to shut down Nik Stauskas (6 points, 1/6 FG), and the Hoosiers eventually pulled away in a brutal slog at Assembly Hall. We planned to record a podcast this afternoon; for everyone's sake, that is not happening, nor is any sort of instant recap. Enjoy your Super Bowl Sunday.
|WHAT||Michigan at Indiana|
|WHERE||Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana|
|WHEN||1 pm Eastern, Sunday|
|LINE||Michigan -5 (KenPom)|
|TV||CBS (PBP: Ian Eagle; Analyst: Bill Raftery)|
Michigan's hasn't won in Assembly Hall since 2009 and were swept in last season's series against the Hoosiers, costing the Wolverines a potential Big Ten title. (Things ended up working out juuuuuuust fine.) This year's Indiana squad barely resembles last year's conference champions, as this graphic from Inside The Hall—which notably excises Mitch McGary's stats here—displays quite clearly:
Gone are two national player of the year candidates in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo; same with snipers Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls, and even the valuable depth provided by Remy Abell.
Sophomore point guard Yogi Ferrell has transitioned remarkably well from being the fifth scoring option last season to this year's go-to guy, averaging 17.3 points and 4.0 assist per game while improving his three-point shooting from 30.3% on 76 attempts to 41.4% on 128 attempts and cutting down on turnovers. His finishing inside the arc (43.2% 2-pt) still leaves much to be desired; in all other facets, however, he's become an excellent point guard.
The other familiar face is that of senior wing Will Sheehey, who's gone the opposite direction of Farrell; after being a highly efficient sixth man a season ago, he's struggled mightily with his outside shot (25.9% 3-pt, down from 34.6%) as a starter, with an uptick in turnovers to boot. His decent mid-range jumper and solid athleticism keep him a threat off the dribble, but he's been a big disappointment this season.
Indiana's most-used lineup features three freshmen surrounding the aforementioned returners. The most prominent is 6'10" center and potential lottery pick Noah Vonleh, a monster on the boards (10th nationally in DReb%, 115th in OReb%) with a quickly developing post-up game. Offensively, he's an efficient inside scorer who gets to the line frequently and even shows flashes of an Adreian Payne-esque outside shot (10/18 3-pt); turnovers are his only real bugaboo on that end, and he makes up for a lot of that by altering plenty of shots on defense.
Über-athletic 6'7" wing Troy Williams is another huge threat on the offensive glass and a decent finisher (and superlative dunker) when he gets near the hoop; right now, that's about the extent of his offensive arsenal, as his outside shooting is non-existent (2/20 3-pt) and he's turning the ball over on nearly a quarter of his possessions used.
6'4" freshman guard Stanford Robinson earned his first career starts in the last three games, replacing grad-year transfer Evan Gordon—brother of one-year Hoosier wonder Eric Gordon—at the two. Robinson gets almost all of his production at or near the rim; his jump shot is very much a work-in-progress. Gordon is shooting 49% from two and 33% from three on the year and has struggled mightily in his last four games, shooting a combined 4/20 from the field with just two FTA in that span—his production is heavily reliant on an iffy outside shot.
Backup bigs Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Jeremy Hollowell, and Devin Davis have all seen sporadic playing time behind Vonleh and Williams. Mosquera-Perea and Davis provide good shot-blocking and rebounding while committing far too many turnovers given their limited offensive roles. Hollowell fancies himself a stretch four but has shot very poorly on jumpers while struggling to finish around the rim; he doesn't provide nearly the same level of rebounding as the other two backup bigs.
Unless you count holding serve at home by three points against #21 Wisconsin, a win looking less impressive by the day, Indiana's resume is entirely devoid of a quality win—their next-best conference victory came at home against #80 Illinois, while their best non-conference triumph came on a neutral floor versus #105 Washington. They are 3-7 against KP100 teams, were blown out in Assembly Hall against Michigan State, and lost on their own floor against fourth place(!!!!!!!!!!!!) Northwestern.
Now that we're partway into conference play, I'll start posting four factors charts for all the games and Big Ten games only, with sample size issues obviously coming into play on the latter for a while.
Four factors, all games (national ranks in parentheses):
|eFG%||Turnover %||Off. Reb. %||FTA/FGA|
|Offense||49.3 (183)||21.9 (328)||39.8 (10)||49.6 (36)|
|Defense||44.9 (37)||18.3 (178)||26.5 (14)||33.9 (52)|
Conference-only (eight games, Big Ten ranks in parentheses):
|eFG%||Turnover %||Off. Reb. %||FTA/FGA|
|Offense||45.3 (9)||22.4 (12)||34.8 (3)||40.4 (5)|
|Defense||49.5 (9)||17.7 (5)||25.3 (3)||30.9 (4)|
Indiana can't shoot, which is both a problem (obviously) and rather bizarre to watch after last year's squad made it rain on the regular; the Hoosiers are 11th in the conference in two-point percentage (42.1% in B1G play) and while Yogi Ferrell is keeping their three-point percentage respectable (35.5%), that's on the second-fewest attempts in the league. While their ability to crash the boards and get to the line keep the offense from being Northwestern-level terrible, the lack of shooting combined with ample turnovers has them tenth in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency.
The defense ranks fourth in the conference in efficiency, propped up by great rebounding and a lack of fouls. Their field goal defense has actually fallen off a cliff in Big Ten play—opponents have consistently shot well over 50% on two-pointers, and if threes are falling Indiana is in deep trouble, as they allow the third-most attempts from beyond the arc in the conference.
Keep the rebounding close. Indiana is much like Purdue—their jump shots are liable to go anywhere, which makes it difficult to keep them off the offensive boards. The Hoosier have more size and athleticism than the Boilermakers, which rebounded 39% of their misses—to Michigan's 24%—on Thursday night against the Wolverines. It's unreasonable to hope for Michigan to keep Vonleh and Co. from having the edge in rebounding; at the very least, however, they need to minimize the number of rebounds around the basket that can result in immediate putback attempts. Long rebounds are less of an issue against a team lacking much in the way of shooting.
Hang with them early. As Brian Kudron of Genuinely Sarcastic helpfully noted today, Indiana has a history of jumping out to big early leads against Michigan in Assembly Hall:
2006-07: 11-0 IU at 18:16 (LMAO) 2008-09: 19-8 IU at 12:28 2010-11: 22-11 IU at 7:09 2011-12: 17-6 IU at 12:02 2012-13: 18-7 IU at 15:25
— Brian (@BKudron) February 1, 2014
Mercifully, Michigan didn't play at Indiana in 2007-08, Beilein's first season at the helm. The Wolverines would recover to win just one of these games. Not only is it helpful to keep the Assembly Hall crowd from becoming a major factor early on, there's also this: the Hoosiers have worn down in second halves in Big Ten play, with a -1 total scoring margin in the first half and a -20 margin in the second half and overtime.
Working hypothesis: this has a lot to do with Yogi Ferrell not having a viable backup—he's played 33 or more minutes in all but one Big Ten game, including a 43-minute outing in their overtime loss to Illinois. Stay close early and Michigan should be able to wear down the Hoosiers over the course of the game.
Stay out of early foul trouble. Easier said than done in Assembly Hall, obviously. With Vonleh and Williams providing tons of athleticism and rebounding up front, Michigan needs Jordan Morgan or Jon Horford on the floor at all times to mitigate their effectiveness. This will also be a big test for Glenn Robinson III, who's been very quiet on the glass in Big Ten play with the notable exception of the Iowa game. If those guys pick up some cheap ones, Vonleh can go to work in the post and Williams can take advantage of the lack of depth at the four—Zak Irvin's DReb% is currently lower than Nik Stauskas'.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 5
Winn notes Iowa's efficiency margin is bolstered by two blowouts of Northwestern, though scoring as well as they have against the Wildcats' bafflingly good defense is more of a positive sign than I think Winn gives them credit for.
[Meta: I thought given the nature of subject it was better to break all this off from Dear Diary.]
Duty Calls (xkcd)
In the wake of news that Brendan Gibbons had been [Michiganese for] expelled for his 2009 rape allegation, there has been precious little more information made available, lots of questions raised, and a whole heck of a lot of judgments from people whose expertise=="I'm on the internet!" I'll admit to personally being one of the latter. However, buried amongst over 2,500 comments in Gibbons-related threads have been a few with actual constructive and helpful experiences to better help us understand what went down and why it took so long. A few suggested they had actual knowledge of the specific events and investigation, or second-hand knowledge speaking to his personality and reputation, but all had credibility concerns. Some were confronted and had their posts deleted when they couldn't back it up; those who named their sources stayed up but none really offer anything definitive.
User Erik_in_Dayton posted and has been updating a rather comprehensive chronology of the things not in debate. They are:
- Nov. 2009-Jan 2010: Alleged rape occurs off-campus, was reported by the Ann Arbor News. Charges not pressed, end of criminal investigation. Another player, encountering the victim's friend, allegedly threatened the victim if she came forth, and this incident was reported to campus police by two other unidentified players. It is unknown what, if any, steps the university or the football team under Rich Rodriguez took at this time. This is the same month Dave Brandon took over as AD.
- 2011: Rodriguez fired, Hoke becomes head coach in early January. White House decrees universities have to investigate all alleged on-campus sexual assault cases and use a standard of "preponderance of evidence." UM instituted an interim policy complying with this.
- 2013: Local gadfly Douglas Smith publishes alleged details of the story on his blog "Washtenaw Watchdog" that purport to include information from the police investigation and information reported to the university, and paint a picture of a clear rape and possible intimidation. University finalizes its policy on
SeptemberAugust 19 (MLive) . Gibbons informed there's a preponderance of evidence against him on Nov. 20 (prior to Iowa game); he plays. He doesn't play in the OSU game (he wasn't in pads but according to Upchurch's photos he stood on the sideline during the game), and meets with OSCR the following week, 12/4. On 12/19 he is expelled and sometime shortly after the AD's office supposedly becomes aware of this for the first time. On 12/23 Hoke says he won't travel w/ the team for the bowl game.
- 2014: Proof of expulsion is leaked to and published by the Michigan Daily. UPDATE: After I posted this Mary Sue Coleman clarified that the university's decision did not involve the AD's office.
[Hit the Jump for best answers to the hard questions]