December was a long time ago.

When Michigan played Ohio State on December 4, everyone expected Ohio State to be a mediocre-at-best Big Ten team. The Buckeyes’ were coming off a 17-15 season and a disastrous offseason, and hadn’t shown anything particularly noteworthy in the early non-conference season. So when Michigan built, and subsequently blew, a 20-point in Columbus, it looked to be a terrible loss and the sign of a team that might struggle to make the NCAA tournament.  Now, ten weeks later, a home win over that same team being (rightly) seen as a massive résumé win.

Moe goes up, Moe goes down (Campredon)

Ohio State’s turnaround has been keyed by Big Ten Player-of-the-Year frontrunner Keita Bates-Diop, and Michigan’s resurgence has been led by its defense. On this day, the defense won the battle. Bates-Diop finished with 17 points, but he required 17 shots to get there, and turned the ball over 4 times in the process. Overall, the Wolverines forced 14 turnovers, largely the result of excellent perimeter defense that resulted in numerous transition opportunities. Ohio State’s offensive success was largely predicated on offensive rebounding, as the Buckeyes grabbed 15 offensive boards.

Offensively, Michigan was sluggish out of the gate, trailing 14-10 midway through the first half. That was when Jordan Poole did Jordan Poole things. Michigan went on a 12-4 run, nine of which were Poole’s, including a four-point play. Michigan never relinquished the lead. Poole finished with 15 points on 5-8 shooting, including 4-5 from deep. He was the only Wolverine who shot well from outside (the rest of the team was 3-15 from three), and equally importantly, he provided a notable boost of energy.

Sir, is your microwave running? Well then you’d better try to catch it (Campredon)

The other palpable source of energy was Moritz Wagner. Wagner scored an efficient 12 points, but also spent a large portion of the afternoon scrambling for loose balls and generally being an hyperactive pest. He also benefited from a (generally) laissez-faire approach from the officials, which allowed him to stay on the court despite being involved in some very physical encounters.

In other positive performances, Jaaron Simmons played extended minutes for the third consecutive game, including a solid stretch along side Jordan Poole during Poole’s first half explosion. The highlight of his first half was a pretty feed to Wagner in the post for an easy. It seems pretty clear at this point that he has supplanted Eli Brooks. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Zavier Simpson combined for 20 points in the second half.  On the downside, Charles Matthews continued to struggle. He was abused by JaeSean Tate (though Michigan struggled to defend him down low all game), and he was held to six points on six shots while turning the ball over four times. However, he did have a couple of nice takes to the bucket in the second half, and he generally stayed within the flow of the offense.

Adieu, gentlemen (Campredon)

This was Senior Day, and Michigan said farewell to three active players; Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Duncan Robinson, and Jaaron Simmons all played significant minutes in this one, and generally played well. But the star of the festivities was Austin Hatch.  Hatch, who wasn’t allowed to play because of NCAA rules (he took a medical redshirt a couple of years ago) was announced as a starter, and warmed up with the team. Crisler’s greeting was reminiscent of that Brock Mealer when the Michigan football team opened the season against UConn in 2010.

For the second year in a row, a former Michigan grad transfer played Michigan's Senior Night an a different color jersey. But unlike Spike Albrecht, who received a relatively warm reception, Andrew Dakich was booed every time he touched the ball. Such is the nature of rivalry. Dakich finished with 0 points, 0 assists, and a turnover in 22 minutes.

This win removes what little doubt remained about Michigan’s tournament status. They still have a chance to play their way out of a second-round matchup with a 1- or 2-seed, though Michigan has recently been projected anywhere from a 3-seed to a “launched-by-trebuchet-into-the-sun,” so your guess is as good as mine. For the moment, we will have to be satisfied with a hearty round of “NOT LIKE FOOTBALL <clap> <clap> <clap clap clap>.”

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]

THE ESSENTIALS

obligatory

THE US

It's seeding crunch time for Michigan, and here is a massive opportunity: a QUADRANT ONE GAME at home that they're actually favored in, albeit narrowly. This is the first of three Q1 opportunities Michigan has to close out the season and its most manageable, because of college basketball's home/road refereeing split.

As far as the team goes, your top story is Duncan Robinson May Have Made A Deal With The Devil And We're Fine With That. After a senior year spent mostly scuffling, Robinson is 10/15 from three in his last two games, and paired that with excellent defense against Iowa's Tyler Cook. A version of Michigan that has a 42% from three Duncan Robinson is a much more threatening one.

And if Charles Matthews could get off the mat at the same time... I mean, probably not. But maybe!

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Ah, finishing goals. [Bill Rapai]

OFFENSE

Analysis: Michigan started this game on fire. They created multiple OMRs right off the bat and put the puck in the net twice in the opening period. Hughes ripped a shot and Winborg deflected it behind Morris. Then Dancs found the puck off of a DZTO and beat Morris short side–Morris’s only soft goal of the four. Michigan was able to get deep in the House area all period and could have had a three or four goal lead after the first. Then, it slowwwwed wayyyyyy dowwwwn.

The penalty-fest in the second kept even strength play very similar. Calderone was able to poke home a garbage goal after James Sanchez drew a lot of attention in the slot. In the third, Michigan went full Sparty and registered a 4(1). But, as Sparty would, they scored on their only House chance, as Nick Pastujov picked up a pick in the neutral zone and found his brother across the crease to give M a 4-2 lead.

Tonight is a night that we remember to put Corsi in context. Michigan played very defensively–and rightly so-in the third. The Irish also turned up the pressure, as they needed a couple of goals. The numbers were low, but the offense was fine in context tonight. Plus, they finished chances! WOO!

[After THE JUMP: a couple unbelievable even-strength stats and woop yep probably just cursed them]

good offensin' [Chris Cook]

So Michigan just hired Jim McElwain to coach football in some capacity. That capacity is apparently offensive coordinator and WR coach. This doesn't make much sense to me. McElwain becomes Michigan's fourth offensive coordinator, more or less, along with Harbaugh, Drevno, and Hamilton. He may be second amongst equals, for whatever that's worth.

McElwain was a notoriously bad recruiter at Florida, failing to crack the top ten once during his tenure and finishing no better than fifth in the SEC, and that was with a steady stream of Questionable Dudes that came highly rated but had seen various other teams back off. Those questionable dudes saw their super powers combine into a credit card scam that got a tenth of the team suspended last year. If you were to go back and re-rank recruiting classes by removing confirmed knuckleheads, Florida would plummet towards the nether reaches of the SEC.

Meanwhile, McElwain had a public meltdown about an internet joke, twice, made an unsupported assertion he had received death threats that almost got him fired for cause, and marketed his own barbecue sauce in the midst of a disastrous, tenure-ending football season.

Whatever offensive aptitudes he seemed to demonstrate at Alabama and Colorado State evaporated in a haze of ineptitude in Florida. Spencer Hall:

Statistically, Jim McElwain turned 2017 Florida into 2017 Rutgers. There is no evidence McElwain or the offensive staff can develop a quarterback or build an offensive line or tell a wideout how to run a route. There’s actually less and less evidence the offense is even designed competently. The big highlight—maybe the only real morbid but funny highlight, really—of watching Gary Danielson this season call a long string of SEC blowouts has been him literally correcting play design for Florida on the screen. He does this when not openly laughing at false starts and procedural penalties. It’s a full to-do list when watching Florida football, and just getting through half of it should earn him an Emmy.

Yours truly surveying the devastation after the opener:

Watch Florida left tackle Martez Ivey start yelling at the left guard on the Furbush touchdown before the play is even over:

You! Come over here! I know you're in the middle of a football play, but look upon the destruction your incompetence has wrought! Feel in your very bones the touchdown you have given up and shall never recover from! Eat at Arby's!

Also here is Florida's quarterback getting hammered on a rollout that Michigan rushed three on.

That's some dystopian business right there, and we should slow our roll a little given the evident dysfunction of the opponent. How much? I don't know.

McElwain doing well at Alabama proves little; having a decent offense at Colorado State because five-star Dee Hart needed a landing spot and rushed for 6.6 YPC doesn't prove a whole lot more. What success Florida did have under McElwain was an artifact of a trash SEC East and a defense he inherited from Will Muschamp.

On the positive side, McElwain does have a lengthy tenure as a collegiate WR coach stretching from 1987 to 2005, with the odd QB or special teams duty thrown in. And he probably has some great stories about John L Smith, who he coached under for five years at Louisville and Michigan State.

The best thing about this hire is that it doesn't really matter since it's Harbaugh's offense anyway. While McElwain comes in with a very Greg Robinson track record—aging successes and recent debacles paired with press interactions that make him seem slightly insane—he's not going to be put in charge of half the team and subsequently told to run something he's completely unfamiliar with. But neither is he likely to move the needle in recruiting or help organize the team. He'll seem like a brilliant WR coach because Michigan's WRs are about to get a lot better by virtue of not being freshmen, in the same way Ron English was a god until he wasn't.

Maybe once released from the prison of being a head coach he's actually a good offensive coordinator—but Michigan doesn't need tactical help. They need someone who can throw a ball straight and an offensive line that doesn't get that guy and his backup murdered. They do need a skill position coach and McElwain sort of fits there. He seems more like a duplicate of a duplicate, and he is very hard to take seriously after his year of baffling press conferences and Keystone Kops coaching.

He's a tenth assistant, and therefore more of a missed opportunity than a burgeoning disaster. And since every other thing with a track record immediately defies it when it arrives to do Michigan football things (except Don Brown, God bless Don Brown), maybe he'll be brilliant.

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

So here's a thing: there is a big ol' discrepancy between various bracketology attempts when it comes to Michigan. I don't think I've seen such wide splits during this pleasant recent era when the tourney is a given unless the basketball gods hew down your two best players. And I'm not talking about randoms on Bracket Matrix:

• Howie Schwab, FOX: 5 seed.
• Joe Lunardi, ESPN: 6 seed.
• Jerry Palm, CBS: 8 seed, fragile enough to be mentioned on bubble watch.
• Bracketville, reigning Matrix champion: 8-seed.
• Matrix writ large: 9-seed.
• Crashing The Dance, algorithm: 11 seed.

I think the main discrepancy here is between people looking at overall strength of record calculations and those looking at the NCAA's teamsheets. Michigan has a Quadrant One problem. Take it from Palm:

The Wolverines have a poor non-conference schedule and only two quadrant 1 wins, but neither of those things can be addressed tonight.

It doesn't take long to figure out why the first part of that might be the case:

Michigan's quadrant one games are

• @ Kenpom #4 Purdue
• @ #6 MSU
• @ #10 UNC
• @ #11 OSU
• @ #52 Nebraska
• @ #45 Texas
• home vs #4 Purdue

IE, five games against top 10-ish competition, four of them on the road, and just two in the more winnable section of the bin. So if you're looking solely at the bin that doesn't look too great. It looks significantly better if you take each individual game and pile them into a Strength Of Record calculation, as ESPN does. ESPN ranks Michigan 17th in SOR, i.e. the first five seed. The AP poll, which is sort of a folk SOR calculation, is a seed more skeptical but more or less agrees.

So if you're looking at the worse and more arbitrary bins and eyeballing it, if you're looking at basic nonconference SOS measures that don't know that playing 200 is exactly like playing 350 if you're tourney-level, Michigan doesn't look too good. If you're trying to sum up Michigan's season without the bins, they look a bit better. Thus a couple of votes for 5-6 seeds and a general 8-9 malaise.

The good news is that Michigan has three relatively easy Q1 games to finish the year: home against OSU and on the road against Penn State and Maryland. Those are 58%, 38%, and 41% shots per Kenpom, much better than the large majority of their Q1 games to date. (They had a 15% shot at MSU, a 10% shot at Purdue, and a 20% shot at UNC, for instance.) If they could pick two of those off and end up 4-6 against Q1 teams, hopefully their high degree of difficulty in those games—7 of which would be on the road against top 50 teams—would matter to someone and they could get into that 5-6 range the optimistic folks currently have them in.

FWIW, Alex played around with Bart Torvik's Teamcast a bit. Findings:

• Winning out (ie: also winning the BTT) gets Michigan a three seed(!).
• Losing out puts them in Dayton as the last team in the field.
• A reasonably optimistic end of season featuring two wins in Michigan's final three games and a 2-1 record in the BTT nets them that 6.
• Going 1-2 down the stretch with reasonably optimistic BTT gets them a 9 seed.

So there is a great deal left to play for here.

Ol’ Dex wants to know what to watch [Bill Rapai]

I know Brian just did a Bracketology Update on Monday, so I decided to look at more of the specifics of what/when/who to watch this upcoming weekend.

Notre Dame Preview

Things That Michigan Will (Probably) Need to Do to Get Points This Weekend:

1. Stay Out of the Box. This is where Michigan lost both games against the Fighting Irish last month. They didn’t take a ton of penalties (only five combined), but Michigan gave up three of their four total goals surrendered with ND on the man advantage. When the game was at even strength, the Wolverines played Notre Dame pretty even, and maybe even outplayed them a bit at Yost.

2. Don’t Get Caught. Michigan has done a better job lately of staying home defensively and covering for defensemen (Quinn Hughes) who skate the puck deep in the zone. Michigan is probably going to control the puck and get the majority of attempts. When that is the case, it is very important not to gift your opposition goals by getting too aggressive and giving up odd man rushes. Staying out of the box and defensively sound will give the Wolverines their best chance to grab points this weekend. Defensemen, pinch with care.

3. Finish. Just get the puck in the net. Over the last couple of weekends, Michigan has created some chances and given guys some opportunities, they just have not finished. This is the season's do-or-die series. It is time for Marody and Calderone–Michigan’s go-to scorers–to finish their chances.

Final Thoughts. I like how this series sets up for Michigan. As Brian stated earlier this week, they’re probably going to need a win this weekend to be in comfortable position in the Pairwise ranking. Michigan gets their Game 7 at home on Sunday, so Friday night kinda becomes found money. If they’re able to get something in South Bend, all of a sudden Sunday becomes a great opportunity. If not, they’ll have the friendly confines of Yost to fall back on for an all-or-nothing chance.

[After THE JUMP: dissecting the Big Ten standings and nationwide rooting interests according to Pairwise]