It's that aimless day in mid-June when the NCAA releases their latest batch of APRs, trumpeting the ever-increasing numbers without examining what that might mean too deeply.

If you remember other posts featuring the books and the birds, you may remember that massive attrition in the early days of Rich Rodriguez threatened to leave Michigan in the doghouse, but that a 984 last year had basically put Michigan in the clear. The new goal: wait for that transition-wracked 897 to drop off the Multiyear APR and make Ohio State take their stupid-ass sign down:

asshats ain't come to play DESCENDING SORT

With an 981 this year Michigan is well on their way. Their constituent bits of the 951 they posted:

• 2009: 897
• 2010: 942
• 2011: 984
• 2012: 981

If Michigan puts up a number similar to the last two years in the 2013 numbers they will jump to 972 next year and 980-something the year after. OSU put up a 970 this year, FWIW.

Previously: CB Reon Dawson, CB Channing Stribling, S Delano Hill, S Dymonte Thomas, CB Ross Douglas, CB Jourdan Lewis, LB Ben Gedeon, LB Mike McCray, DE Taco Charlton, DT Maurice Hurst Jr., DT Henry Poggi.

Offensive linemen are notoriously the hardest players to project. Enormous long-armed bodies might not be able to "bend" and end up at Western Michigan. 240-pound tight ends might balloon into the top pick in the NFL draft despite playing at Central Michigan. Relying on sleepers and development has been good enough to send Wisconsin to the last three Rose Bowls. Etc. There is no such thing as a sure thing on the offensive line.

But if there is, Patrick Kugler is it. Let us describe the ways:

• SIZE: at 6'4", 280-ish as a freshman Kugler will easily approach the 300-pound range that NFL centers usually are.
• PEDIGREE: his dad was the frigging Steelers' OL coach, and he was so good at that UTEP hired him to be their head coach. His older brother plays center at Purdue.
• TOUGHNESS: played through a torn labrum to participate in a high school all-star game.
• TECHNIQUE: no doubt because of his pedigree, folks say he was "easily the most technically sound offensive lineman" at said high school all star game in which he played despite having a torn labrum.

I mean. Seriously. You guys($).

Sam Webb: … if you’re a scout in the stands, and you’re watching Patrick Kugler on the field, what do you see?

Patrick Kugler: “I would just say mean. I mean, people who I go against don’t like me very much. I try to be the meanest guy out there. My dad taught me that. Just, if anything, be mean. I just try to be mean all the time, and if you’re pounding them into the ground, they just don’t want to get back up. That’s my goal.”

Sam Webb: Have you ever been on the field against someone and done something to them, and said ‘oh man, I feel bad about that’.

Patrick Kugler: “One time. This guy, he kicked me the play before, and I just grabbed him by the face mask and ripped it off, but I mean, I felt bad about that afterwards, but at the time it seemed like the right thing to do.”

You guys. His dad's advice:

Asked what words of wisdom his father has shared with him, Pat said: "Be nasty. Don't let up until you hear the whistle."

Pat paused and added more sage advice he's picked up having spent his whole life around football:

"Maybe give 'em a little after the whistle. Kill 'em, basically."

When he committed to Michigan and word came out that he was going to play center that made so much sense to me, and then as this season developed with its missed blocking assignment fiesta I craved the presence of Kugler on campus as quickly as possible.

I'm weird. I love David Molk almost as much as anyone to come through this program not named Denard. I'm weird, but I'm not wrong. In the NFL, centers who can do all the things that make your offense work with their brains are a fungible commodity. In college, they are a treasure. See also: Michigan's with-and-without-Molk YPCs in the Denard era. I'm not wrong. It is only barely hyperbole to call Patrick Kugler the most important recruit in this class.

As you might expect from the son of an offensive line coach, Kugler is an advanced technician and nasty dude. Virtually every scouting report will start off praising his technique and IQ. A sampler:

• Bob Lichtenfels, Scout: "Kugler is a technician and he is nasty. He finishes his blocks and always plays to the whistle. He has great feet and gets to the second level as well as anyone. Very dominant at the point of attack. … very cerebral and is rarely in bad position. Very good knee bend and deceptively athletic."
• Allen Trieu, Scout: "great feet and gets into the second level very well. He's a technician and a smart player … bigger and more athletic than most center prospects. You essentially have a kid that could easily play tackle or guard for most schools at center. That is also a position where smarts and knowledge of the game come into play and this kid certainly has it."
• An opposing coach: “He looks like an NFL guy playing with middle-school kids … You know he's a coach's kid. You can just tell. He's got great technique. He gets off the ball so hard. He does not look like he should run as fast as he does. You see kids that big and they're slow and gawky. But he's got great, great feet. I think he's in a class by himself. He stands alone.”
• Anonymous Rivals evaluator: "comes off the ball strong with good blocking angles and shows very little hesitation before impact on the defender. He does a good job of lowering his 6-5 frame to get under the smaller high school opponents he faces. … shows that he likes to put defenders into the turf with violence."

ESPN's evaluation:

Kugler is not only the son of an O-line coach, but also one tough dude. … not unreasonable to think he can't easily fill out into a 300-pound interior lineman. He is a physical and tenacious run blocker. He does need to watch his pad level at times, but is able to play with good leverage. He does a good job of getting placement with his hands and being able to control defenders. He can deliver a good initial pop, but looks to have much better drive once he is into a defender rather than initial explosion on contact. He is able to create and maintain push with sustained leg drive and looks to bury the defender every play. He displays a good understanding of combo blocks and good pull/trap ability. He moves well in space and can get a hat on active second level defenders. … mixes good ability and heady play with a tenacious style to get the job done.

A lot of these scouting evaluations expect these high school kids to be NFL-level players based on junior high school film, and that's never more true than it is for OL. That's a highly positive evaluation with some minor, obvious issues—"does need to watch his pad level at times" is something you could put in every OL evaluation ever without raising an eyebrow.

Meanwhile, Scout's profile has our favorite Area For Improvement:

STRENGTHS

Feet

Intensity

Nasty Streak

AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT

Size

Kugler plays both sides of the ball for North Allegheny. He has excellent quickness and feet. He has good flexibility and change of direction which is displayed when playing defensive tackle. Kugler has the athleticism and reach to play tackle with the mentality of an interior lineman. He gets good leverage and push on both sides of the ball. Finishes blocks and easily gets to the second level - Scott Kennedy

I assume that area for improvement is based on the idea Kugler would end up as a tackle, which some of the sites projected him to early. All eventually came around to the idea he would be an interior lineman.

Importantly for a guy projected to center, all of those evaluations emphasize Kugler's ability to get to the second level. If your center can pull—and Kugler will be able to—that opens up additional options in the run game, and if he's good at moving to the second level your inside zone game ramps up its effectiveness. It's a key attribute for a center, and not necessarily one I've seen mentioned much in evaluations of offensive linemen.

"Intensity" is another word that comes up frequently. Tim Sullivan:

Kugler showed outstanding stamina, athleticism and effort while playing both ways, just about the entire night for North Allegheny…. In the second half, Kugler played like a man possessed. His intensity greatly improved and he showed his leadership skills while pushing his teammates to put the game away. He was displayed very good technique and footwork while pass blocking and he showed a very good burst when he was run blocking. Although he is most comfortable when pass blocking, he gets to the second level extremely quickly and looks like he will develop into an excellent run blocker.

 His coach:

“Once the game starts, he changes to a different level of intensity,” Walker said of Kugler. “One of the reasons why he was so focused on schools in the B1G is that he loves to run block. He’s a physical kid, and he wants to put people in the ground. He’s a very aggressive blocker.”

A Brady Hoke kind of guy.

As mentioned, Kugler drew heaps of praise at the UnderArmor game, where he was the headiest, most advanced OL there:

…easily the most technically sound offensive lineman in attendance. He adapted well to different pass-rushing moves used against him, knew where to place his hands, and listening to him talk to other offensive linemen and the coaches nearby, his high football IQ was apparent.

He quickly adapted to both interior OL positions, earning a start at guard while simultaneously being named the best center around.

Center

Patrick Kugler, Wexford (Pa.) North Allegheny
The Michigan commitment has manned the toughest position on the line in the all-star setting better than anyone else. Taking into consideration that it’s fast paced, with new install, very little time for connectivity among a line and in a setting that most certainly favors defensive linemen, the 6-foot-4, 275-pounder has been reactive, fundamentally sound and shown excellent lateral quickness.

I mean. You guys.

David Dawson- Dawson and Patrick Kugler might be the two best lineman overall on the white squad. … Patrick Kugler- Kugler was as good as advertised in the first day of practices. Kugler won the majority of his one on one reps and did a good job in the team periods. Kugler had outstanding technique and showed very good lateral quickness. Kugler had a mean streak and was able to move opposing defensive tackles in the run game.

Based on that performance and Kugler's all-around profile, 247 would name him (and David Dawson) to their All-America team, calling him the nation's top center.

Kugler is another opposite-of-character-issue guy what with his dad. (A pattern emerges.) His prep coach confirms:

“He’s a young man that loves the game,” Walker said of Kugler. “He loves to compete. He does a good job of getting himself prepared and taking on leadership responsibilities. He does all the little things off the field to prepare. He’s a student-athlete all the time. He does what he has to do in the classroom, and carries himself well. He’s a good kid to be around, he has the right kind of focus and he’s not taking anything for granted.”

I mean, Kugler told various sites he actively hopes to redshirt, something I have never ever seen. He backed off a hard stance either way a bit later, but the desire is clear:

"I have no idea if they want me to play next year, or not," Kugler stressed. "Personally, I'd love to redshirt and get that fifth year of education, but if the coaches need me to play that would be great. I'm a team guy first, so whatever they need from me is what I'll do."

Kugler further stated he hasn't even looked at the depth chart because "Michigan was the school I fell in love with, so that never mattered to me." As of January he was at 285, with a goal of arriving in the 295-300 range. (Area For Improvement: check.) He was also scheduled for surgery on his labrum. That must have slowed down his workouts, but with a four-month recovery timeline by the time he arrives on campus he will be full-go.

That depth chart is ripe with opportunity, with only Jack Miller and a couple of walk-ons currently competing at center. With the labrum injury and Glasgow showing he can be good depth for the interior spots, a redshirt is still in the cards. After that, it's going to be a war on the interior.

Etc.: Good ESPN profile here. Mom on his visit:

"I saw it in his face," Patsy said. "As a mom, you know your kid so well, and I could just see his face light up with emotion. I could see it starting to happen."

Heartbreak!

“I can't grow facial hair,” Kugler said with great disappointment. “It's bad. I've been growing it a month, and it's barely noticeable.”

Ping pong fiend!

People might be surprised to know that ...? Me and my brother used to play ping-pong the morning before every game. It would be intense ping-pong. We would wake up in the morning and play before school on game days. I don't know why, but we would play at 6:30 or 7 in the morning.

Kugler popped up in a "Spartan Sizzling Seven" at the start of last year's cycle as one of the most likely players to end up at State. That list: Riley Norman (MSU, but for track and field), Jon Reschke (check), Kyle Bosch, Steven Elmer, Patrick Kugler, Ethan Pocic, and Greg Webb. One of seven is… well, it ain't good. Kugler in particular twisted the knife, visiting State a half-dozen times, then hitting Michigan once and abruptly ending his recruitment a day before he was scheduled to go to East Lansing again.

Why David Baas? High school tackle at 6'4" who moved to the inside, starting at guard before moving to center, where he was an Outland finalist, Rimington winner, All-American, and second-round draft pick. Topped out at 310 pounds, which is well within Kugler's range, and was a highly-regarded recruit who hit some high school All-American lists.

Guru Reliability: A shade less than exacting. Healthy, high profile player, All Star game, consensus. They are projecting a position move.

Variance: Low-plus. Only the facts that this is an offensive lineman and that there is a slight position adjustment—albeit one almost every interior lineman makes—hold this down from plain ol' low.

Ceiling: High. It is tough for centers to work their way into the first round of the NFL draft because they're just less rare than 6'8" guys just as agile. He could be a Rimington contender, though.

General Excitement Level: Very high. You guys.

Projection: Nonzero chance he emerges into a starting job in year one. Likely? No. Would I even regard that as a bad sign? Well… yeah probably. But not as much of one as you might think. It would be lovely if they could get a redshirt on Kugler and have Miller in front of him for two more years and get a couple of upperclass years from an eminently prepared guy.

If that does happen, Miller is going to be pretty good. If Miller does stay in front of Kugler, Kugler will likely compete at the guard spot opposite Kalis as a redshirt freshman. That will either be vacant (if Ben Braden wins the job and moves to tackle) or held by Graham Glasgow.

That I can't project this guy to definitely start until he's a redshirt junior says something about the burgeoning depth on the offensive line. Some of these guys will wash out from injury or lack of ability; this is inevitable. But the guys who do work out are going to be high four-star potential sorts who have lived up to it, and the competition to emerge is going to be brutal. That's how you build a kick-ass line.

The new logos are here! The new logos are maize! The new logo's maize will have nothing to do with the color of the athletic uniforms! The logo:

Modification of this in any way is punishable by death. They also invented a new font for this, which is called "Steve." Steve the font.

Watch it before the NSA T3Media finds you. 50 interceptions:

Entrance of the Lambs. Good news for the baseball team, as Jackson Lamb (P/Civil War general) has reportedly turned down a third-round offer from MLB and will matriculate this fall. Lamb eventually went in the 20th round to Texas, so unless Texas ends up with a ton of extra money by not signing their top picks—baseball got serious about their slotting regulations recently—Lamb will anchor Erik Bakich's first recruiting class.

Over the weekend, Lamb led his Bedford team to a regional title. I'll let Ryan Autullo take it from here:

In exhausting both his pitch count and a mouthy opposing lineup, Jackson Lamb lifted the Kicking Mules to a 3-1 regional semifinal win over Taylor Kennedy. …

Lamb encountered control issues for the second game in a row, walking six batters and wracking up a whopping 146 pitches — exactly twice as many as Kuhr’s 73. Nevertheless, he didn’t allow a run until the bottom of the seventh, at which time Bedford was in front 3-0. An antagonistic Kennedy dugout made a point early and often to try to rattle Michigan’s Gatorade player of the year, mocking Lamb’s failure to locate his fastball and breaking into vociferous chatter typically seen in softball.

Well, I never.

Three more recruits went late and shouldn't be a threat to sign, but junior Michael O'Neill (Yes That O'Neill) got drafted by the Yankees in the third and is probably out the door.

If you get in, you see this. Despite featuring lot of non-regulation Ms, this business tugged a heart string or two:

Bring a fan to orientation. Trust me.

This changes nothing. Indiana made the College World Series, marking the first time since Michigan did it that a Big Ten team has made it to Omaha. This is what a cell phone looked like back then:

on the left, probably

It was 1984.

Meanwhile it has been perfect baseball weather in Ann Arbor for much of the past month, and Fisher sits empty when it could be selling me hot dogs and giving the BTN something other than Bret Bielema fishing tips to televise. The history of NCAA baseball has been Southern teams flipping the northern bits of the country off, and since that's never going to change the Big Ten should just play their own game with 25 scholarships and wood bats. Cheese 'em off real good, that would.

I mean, they could use the money cannon for something cool for once.

Ana-what-now? Apparently Trey Burke's pending, minor draft fall is being driven by data-conscious NBA teams:

"Sources say a number of teams that rely heavily on analytics have Carter-Williams rated higher than Burke," Ford wrote. "While both players look good in the various analytical approaches teams employ, Carter-Williams is coming up at No. 1 and No. 2 overall on several teams' reports. For teams that value analytics, that's a big deal.

"Finally, teams are always looking for upside in the lottery. Carter-Williams has extraordinary size for his position. He is a terrific athlete. He sees the floor as well as any point guard in the draft. His weaknesses -- primarily his shaky jumper -- are the only thing holding him back from being a top-5 pick right now."

Those numbers must be pretty advanced to be able to rank Carter-Williams over Burke, who finished second in the kPOY rankings because he was a huge-usage, huge-assist-rate, low-TO, high-eFG guard. IE: he did everything you could do well. Carter-Williams didn't even finish in the top 500(!) in ORtg because there aren't any barns in upstate New York he hasn't flung a ball past, shooting 44%/29% despite putting up only 20% of Syracuse shots while he's on the court.

Can any defensive ability top that massive gap? I get the upside thing—if MCW learns to shoot he will probably be a better NBA player than Burke despite their college numbers—but isn't that a huge leap to make? How many rhetorical questions can I stuff in a single paragraph? Four?

Trey is just like well, like, that's your opinion, man.

Old school, and OLD SCHOOL. Dooley catches up with a guy who uses "aught-three" to mean 1903:

“My dad played football at [M.A.C.] in the class of aught three,” Drake told me.   “It wasn’t intercollegiate football; it was class team football.  They beat each other up without headgear on the banks of the Red Cedar.”

Yeah, he went to State, but he was in town over the weekend for the Fantasy Camp. Here's Gerald Drake meeting Hoke:

Okay, Bleacher Report, okay. Even though you still pop up an exhortation for me to subscribe to your newsletter on literally every misbegotten visit to your website, I will link you for this from Miami commit KC McDermott:

AK: What's the Urban Meyer story?

KM: The Urban Meyer thing was just funny to me. He came to my school a week after I told his assistant that I wasn't even interested in them. I told him no to his face, and it's got to be one of the top five reactions of someone ever. His facial expression was just so funny. My coach was tearing up and had to go in his office to laugh.

AK: Talk more about coach Meyer's face when you told him no. Was he mad, upset?

KM: More like the state of shock where the guy has literally never been told no in his life. It literally looked like a kid the first time you tell him 'no, you can't do something.' It looked like he was a baby about to cry. It was so funny.

If you find a recruit willing to describe Dantonio as "about as personable as a rock, and not a shiny rock you'd find in a river, but like, a boring rock, like some limestone or something" I will link you again, Bleacher Report.

Etc.: My mom would get along with Laura Hoke. The sad status quo for ND-M. Michigan is a dog versus both MSU and OSU early. What Johns Hopkins means for B10 lax. Hype video. Surprise: the Big Ten won't go DIII if O'Bannon wins. Goodbye, Denard.

Hey kids. Ace is off and I step into the recruiting roundup breach.

Guest columnist Adoree' Jackson

Verily, let us discourse on the fine gentlemen of the Michigan recruiting class. Nay, ask me not your questions. Rather I will ask you which of the gentlemen has the most beatific smile. The world is all topsy-turvy this day! Ha-HA!

–probably what Jackson is saying right here

CA CB Adoree' Jackson talks about his fresh top ten with College Level Athletes, and would we be reading too much into a random interview if we noted that Jackson seems to know almost as much about Michigan's recruiting class as the assembled lunatics here?

"It means something because you wanna build a class that you feel comfortable with. For me and the (Jabrill) Peppers situation, that's a corner that's similar to me and we could do a lot of the same things, and if you just look at that you've got confidence on the other side. Like I said, 'me and Jabrill on the field, that's a scary sight.' You don't really think of having two great corners on the same team… that's rare."

"(Wilton) Speight at the quarterback position, you want somebody who's good so when you're practicing they can go hard at you and you can compete. As for Drake (Harris) as a receiver, he's a great receiver, so you just want to compete with them everyday, day-in and day-out. That's going to be a decision for me, making sure we have a great quarterback and great receivers. I want to make sure the receivers are sound so we can all get better."

Jackson spends a lot more time talking Michigan than any of his other schools, and while I still suspect that track is going to pull him away from Ann Arbor I get the vibe that he really likes M. Dollars to donuts they at least get an official.

Sam Webb's News article this week covered a lot of ground, some of it about Jackson's recruitment:

“I don’t think he’s leaning anywhere. I think he's extremely open to leaving the West Coast because he's not a West Coast guy, and he'll openly say, ‘I’m not a West Coast guy.’ He kind of brags about it. It's almost like he wears that with a badge of courage, so I definitely think he's open. I think so much of Adoree’s recruitment is going to be determined by how they do on the field. The Serra connection he has kind of tells me that USC kind of has the inside track.

Uber-WR Marquise Lee is also from Serra. Biggins says he's "extremely open" to leaving the West Coast, but that the local schools are still in it. IE, ain't nobody know things.

Challenge leads to visits

Kalen Ballage uses myspace and has a dumbphone. Kalen Ballage is from 2005. He is also a SWAG ANIMAL, of course. Kalen Ballage is an important recruit to get even if he is from 2005.

The Rivals Five-Star Challenge was held in Chicago over the weekend, which provided a couple of distant prospects the opportunity to check out the Midwest. CO RB Kalen Ballage told Rivals he'd visit Michigan on Thursday (and Michigan State afterwards, but lol). Arizona State, Boise State, Nebraska, Washington, and Vandy are also involved.

AZ WR Jalen Brown is stopping by Tuesday as part of a Midwest swing that encompasses OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin. Brown wants to cut things down after that an a visit to some southern schools and pick pretty quickly after that.

CA WR/S JuJu "John" Smith was a guy who expressed interest in the Midwest early and has since dropped off the radar. Why? Dunno, as Smith told Rivals's West Coast guy that leaving the state remains a strong possibility:

The four-star safety said during registration day … that some of the major programs in the Big Ten appeal to him, among others.

"So far I have Michigan, Ohio State, and I'm going to take a visit to Alabama and maybe Ole Miss, and Notre Dame looks good too," Smith said. "Wisconsin is also looking good."

When you mention Wisconsin, you are seriously serious about exiting. Smith mentioned he was "especially serious"—author's words—about Michigan and OSU. So that's good, but it's an uphill battle if USC decides to get involved:

“He grew up an SC fan. I talked to (another recruit’s) dad after they were at the USC-UCLA game last year, which was at UCLA. He said JuJu was openly cheering like you would not believe for SC the entire game -- in the UCLA student section."

That would be a first: a USC fan that gives a crap about cheering for USC.

On the other hand, USC isn't after him that hard right now and amongst non-USC options it sounds like Michigan is a strong contender, possibly the strongest:

I think [USC's lack of pursuit] made it more open. I think he is open to leaving. He loves Michigan, he likes Notre Dame a little bit, and UCLA has done well with him.

The 247 Crystal Ball is split about evenly between ND, UCLA, and USC, FWIW. IE: ain't nobody know.

And in "really lol wut" news, LA RB Leonard Fournette wants to visit Michigan!

"What I'm looking for is academics first," he said. "People-wise, I love great personalities. That's it. That's what I like about Michigan."

Has Fournette planned a trip to Ann Arbor?

"No, not yet," he replied. "I would like to take a visit up there. It would be during the fall, for an official visit."

I'm just… naw. Naw man, naw. We'll see if that gets scheduled before we move Fournette from total pipe dream to "so you're saying there's a chance." I'm leaving him in the pipe dream category at the moment.

In non-Challenge-related visit news, according to TomVH($) IL OL Jamarco Jones has planned his final visits: M Saturday, MSU Sunday, OSU Monday. Notre Dame appears to be out. The M Block reports that NJ RB Jonathan Hilliman is trying to decide between Michigan and Vandy for a visit this weekend

McDowell admits a leader sorta kinda probably

That's a really good disguise, Adoree', but I see right through it. Five stars have x-ray vision, which you know because you, too, are a five-star. See into my heart. Yes. It is a regulation block M the right color and everything. I can give you the hex codes.

-probably what Malik is saying right there

Five-star MI DT Malik McDowell weighed in at 6'6", 306 at the Challenge, which like whoah. Tim Sullivan described him as a "grown-ass man," so he'll pump in a hat trick against a Caribbean team sometime soon. Woo deep-cut Eddie Johnson references!

McDowell's been keeping things close to the vest after some early indications he wanted to commit to Michigan, but he finally came out and said he probably might have a kinda sorta leader($):

He confirmed all four were still high on his list, though one was the current team to beat.

"It's Michigan, probably … that's home," McDowell said. "They are kind of normal … they hang out at regular places. You think they would be all uppity, but they are down-to-earth."

Thanks, I think?

McDowell has tentative plans to visit FSU, UF, and USC. Probably. A decision doesn't seem to be coming in the near future.

Furbush return

OH LB Noah Furbush made a return trip to Michigan's campus last week, a sign of serious-serious interest that combines with Furbush's offer list—MSU, Mizzou, Northwestern, Tennessee, etc.—to suggest Michigan is in the driver's seat with him. Unless Northwestern gets all up in there, I guess.

Allen Trieu caught up with Furbush, who also recently hit up Purdue, and he had some weird things to say about his recruitment, specifically where colleges are projecting him($):

[At] Purdue, it's more of an outside linebacker. At Michigan, it's more of an inside linebacker. In our defense, we do a package where I line up to the inside a little bit, so I've experienced it a little bit."

I would be shocked to see Michigan sporting a 6'4" MLB. Either Furbush is a bit shorter than that and won't end up in that 250-260 range or he shouldn't be a generic three star. Or he's a SAM/WDE. Those are our options.

Trieu asked flat out whether Chase Winovich's commitment affected Michigan's pursuit of him and Furbush said he still had a spot. While Michigan's in on a couple more remote kids who are higher-rated*, I'd peg Furbush as the third LB in this class all. He would provide some drama in the MGoBlog Sleeper Of The Year competition, which is currently between Moe Ways and… Moe Ways because no one else meets the criteria. Hoke uber alles.

*[Namely Dwight Williams, a WLB type out of CA, and Darrion Owens, who could play any of the LB spots depending on how much weight he adds.]

The distant future the year 2000 (and fifteen)

FUTURE'S SO BRIGHHHHHHT I GIVE IT SIX SWAG MATTISONS

Yeah, we're talking about it. Michigan's camp is coming up soon, and these days that's an opportunity for juniors and sophomores to draw notice. A number of guys will come in looking for offers, and there's a nonzero chance Michigan picks up its first 2015 commit at the camp. I mean, KY RB Damien Harris is just itching to drop.

June 16th can't come soon enough. I'm ready to be in Ann Arbor!! #Hail

— Damien Harris (@Damien_D1Harris) June 5, 2013

247's Clint Brewster has five more 2015 campers to keep an eye on for possible offers:

• VA CB/WR Garrett Taylor—Big time prospect with Stanford offer amongst others that aren't like whoah academics.
• GA OL Chuma Edoga—half dozen good Southern offers already.
• OH LB Justin Hilliard—brother of recent Hawkeye RB commit CJ, which might give the Hawkeyes a leg up except CJ is an Iowa running back and will be having a hand grafted onto his knee so he can keep playing at UW-Whitewater in two weeks. Looking like a big time prospect.
• OH S Tyree Kinnel—a strong lean if offered; would be a guy Ace and I would add to our Crystal Ball if he picks up an M offer. Just Ark/UK offer at the moment.
• MI LB/S Tyriq Thompson—son of Clarence.

Cleveland-area running back Andrew Dowell is also planning on attending($) after an impressive NFTC performance. He missed most of his sophomore year and is thus a little under the radar. Dowell has a twin brother David, a wideout.

We've already got five guys ticketed to M in what should be a small class, so as early as next week we could have a rough outline for what half of the Team 136 class looks like.

Elsewhere in 2015 guys, six-foot-eight PA OL Sterling Jenkins has emerged into a primo left tackle prospect in the 2015 class. He picked up a Michigan offer recently, competed in Chicago—an indicator he will be a top 100 prospect at the very least next year—and it sounds like he'll be a Midwest fight($):

"I plan to go to Ohio State and Penn State, then Michigan," he said. "Ohio State for the 19th [of June], Penn State the 26th, and Michigan around the end of July for their barbecue."

Jenkins isn't quite sure what the difference is between an unofficial visit and an official one… he's a ways from a decision. I wish his last name was Archer.

CA DE Keisean Lucier-South, a Crable-sized defensive end at 6'6", 215, has some nice early offers (Texas, Miami, Tennessee) and grew up a Michigan fan($):

“The school that I really want an offer from is the University of Michigan. That’s one of my favorite schools since I was a little kid and I’d watch them all the time. They have some of the top talent out there and the way they treat football is insane, like the Big House, or the rivalry with Ohio State. That might be the best rivalry in sports. It’s amazing there and that’s what I like about Michigan.”

Lucier-South is just outside the top 100 in 247's extremely preliminary rankings.

Oh and there's Minkah Fitzpatrick, a NJ CB who seems to be on the verge of a Michigan offer.

Clarkson Camp Scouting

That Webb article also touches on Wilton Speight and Drake Harris, who went out to Steve Clarkson's "quarterback retreat" in San Diego. Biggins gives both guys good reviews. Speight:

When I watched him this year and saw the physical way he carried himself, the confidence that he carried was crazy. He was literally like a different person. Now he’s a very confident guy. He kind of carries himself with a certain swagger. Not arrogance, but definitely very confident in everything he does. He’s more decisive in his throws. …  I definitely like the progression. He has made huge strides.

And Harris:

He exploded out of his cut, the ball was overthrown, he jumps up, grabs it, and you’re like, ‘Who the heck is that?!’ Everything about the guy, just the way he moves -- you’re either born like that, or you’re not. He’s so fluid in his movement, and it’s so natural, where he doesn’t fight anything. I love the size, and he’s going to put weight on. He’s just a super athletic kid. A lot of times with those athletic kids, they’re not going to be super polished or catch the ball well, but he’s already pretty advanced. He’s an instant impact guy.

Harris is one slot away from five stars, and while Scout has evidently changed their policy of giving everyone in the top 50 the fifth star they went up to 42 last year (Adam Breneman), which is considerably less stingy than some other sites. Harris should get there eventually. Speight sounds like he'll stick as a well-regarded three-star.

Miscellaneous

Happy trails to VA DT Andrew Brown, who named a top eight in Chicago that did not include M.

Here's a DaShawn Hand vs Damian Prince vine. FL WR Artavis Scott says he'll "definitely" visit Clemson, Michigan and OSU this summer($), plans an Army game decision. We'll see if it gets that far. NJ CB commit Jabrill Peppers wins the 100 and 200 in NJ.

The time has come for the annual offseason series in which I provide a semi-analytical preview of Michigan’s opponents. Because of the relatively late start, I don’t think I’ll get around to writing up every team. So for those of you interested in Central Michigan and Akron, here is a super condensed version:

Central Michigan

• 2012: 7-6 overall, 4-4 MAC; beat Iowa.
• Offense: QB-by-committee as of spring; senior tailback is 1,000-yard rusher; top wideout averages 20 yards per, which is Hemingway-like. O-line lost primo tackle Eric Fisher to the draft.
• Defense: Injured d-line, solid linebackers, meh secondary.
• Kind of like: A stiff punching bag.
• vs. Michigan: Would be a good opportunity for M to practice running power with new RBs. If the coaches anticipate needing Shane Morris this season (hint: they probably do), his redshirt should be burned here.

Akron

• 2012: 1-11 overall, 0-8 MAC; saved UMass from winless season.
• Offense: Crap.
• Defense: Crap.
• Kind of like: Crap.
• vs. Michigan: Assuming Morris loses his redshirt against CMU, this should be treated like a second spring game, i.e. give the starters a series or two, then bring in the backups.

--------------------

Notre Dame

My tears are real. You're not.

I know what you’re thinking.

You’re thinking you’ve probably done something wrong if you’re coming off a 12-1 season and the only things people talk about are fake girlfriends, "poor academic judgement," and flighty defensive tackles. Not to mention those rumors about your head coach possibly ditching you to be with someone else at some point.

Well. Let me assure you that it’s not you. You’ve done nothing wrong. It’s not your fault love letters are most effective when written in 140 characters or less. It’s not your fault you’re not allowed to “retweet” someone else’s homework. It’s not your fault Eddie Vanderdoes thinks @BruinBoobs is a way better follow than @NotreDameBoobs.

And speculation about Brian Kelly’s imminent departure to the NFL is just hurtful gossip perpetuated by rumormongers who think that anything they say on the internet can be deleted before they get in trouble.

You see, a pattern emerges: Twitter is sabotaging your way of life en route to bringing down Western society.

Damn it all to hell.

Overview

Wooosahhh.

Notre Dame’s 12-1 season was made possible by luck, good defense, a positive turnover margin, and absurdly bad refereeing. They lost to Alabama at the end of the season because, incidentally, they didn’t have any of those things.

Conventional wisdom says that Notre Dame can’t replicate that level of success this year because the things within their control won't be any better, and the things outside of their control will most likely be worse.

The defense will be great once again, but when you were No. 2 in the nation in points allowed there’s not a whole lot of room for improvement. Offensively, the Irish under Kelly have never been anything special. With question marks at nearly every position -- including QB now that Golson has been suspended -- it’s hard to see them doing much better in terms of yardage, and it’s even harder to see them hang on to that low turnover rate. 

The schedule is relatively similar to the one they had last year. They host Michigan State, USC, and Oklahoma, and significant road opponents include Michigan, Pitt, and Stanford. As college schedules go, that's pretty rough, and they don't get any real body-bag games to take a breather. 

Their defense will keep them in every game they play. Their offense will need a lot of luck, however, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels like they used up the entirety of their five-year allowance last season.

Offense

This potato is really hot.

Golson is out. That leaves Rees, Hendrix, and incoming freshman Malik Zaire to jockey for the starting spot. Reports indicate that Rees has won the job already, which makes sense, but a lot can happen between now and September.

Rees, in case you've forgotten (how dare you!), is the prolific passer who started two years ago in Under the Lights. In fact he was so prolific he outshined Denard in the “throwing to the other team” category. I guess it's kind of his thing -- his first career pass against Michigan was a flea flicker interception to Jonas Mouton.

On the other hand, he scored the only touchdown of last year’s game against the Wolverines on a QB run, of all things.

If Rees starts, Michigan’s secondary will get a stiff but manageable early season test. Stiff because all things considered Rees is pretty decent. Manageable because the matchup nightmares that Notre Dame usually seems to have -- Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, Tyler Eifert -- are no more. Davaris Daniels (31 rec, 490 yards, 15.8 ypc) is the only potential weapon they have. We don’t know much about him because he wasn’t given too many opportunities last year. That’ll change with Rees at QB, and then we’ll see whether he’ll blow up like Jeremy Gallon or get beaned in the helmet like any Michigan State receiver not named Aaron Burbridge.

Formationally we’ll probably see a lot of shotgun and one-back with receivers spread all over the field. When Rees started in 2011, the run-pass split was slightly in favor of pass (33:36 attempts per game), but that was with guys like Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray. Expect that ratio to be biased more towards pass this year; I don’t think they can afford otherwise.

That's because the Irish run game will be thin. The starting O-line is solid, returning both tackles and a guard, but their depth beyond that is as dire as last year’s Michigan line. Any injury could spell the end of positive yardage on the ground, especially considering that there is really only one experienced running back on the roster, George Atkinson III (51 carries, 361 yards, 7.1 ypc, 5 TDs). No one seems to know whether he’s durable enough to last more than 10-15 carries a game. He could be 2011 Toussaint, or he could be a 2012 Toussaint. Either way, he's their only guy as of now.

At least having a competent and somewhat experienced pocket passer plays to Kelly’s strengths as a playcaller, so Notre Dame should be fun to watch regardless. Drives will end quickly and spectacularly, and Kelly will have plenty of opportunity to practice his Grimace impersonation.

Defense

Irish D-line

What would an Irish defense be without Tragic Hero/Victim Manti Te’O? A lot less annoying/entertaining to hear about, and still very good. Expect to see them hanging out in opponent backfields on a regular basis.

Notre Dame defensive cordinator Bob Diaco runs a 3-4, which looks a lot like Greg Mattison’s 4-3 under but with slightly different names and concepts. The nose tackle in the 3-4 lines up directly over the center and is a monument to the law of inertia. The defensive ends are a lot like Michigan’s 5-tech and 3-tech; OLBs are like SAM and WDE; ILBs are like Morgan and Ross.

Responsibilities are interchangeable between a lot of positions because the front seven is built for a variety of zone blitzes. The secondary is the same.

So who should we worry about? All of the defensive linemen, to start. There’s DE Stephon Tuitt -- you know, shredder facemask -- who is a 6-6, 300-lb monster who had 12 sacks last season. There’s 6-3, 340 lb DT Louis Nix who has orbiting satellites. And there’s DE Sheldon Day who is kind of like Brandon Graham. Five offensive linemen are probably not enough to block these guys.

Then you kind of have to deal with the linebackers, a unit that returns everyone but Te’O. OLB Prince Shembo (51 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks) is the guy to watch out for, but no one is really a slouch. Most of them are seniors. Most of them are very good. This is depressing to write about.

The secondary is really the only group with exploitable potential. Last year they were a freshman, a converted running back, and a converted receiver; this year they will be a sophomore, a converted running back, and a converted receiver. They held up just fine in 2012, however -- few opposing QBs had much time to do much of anything before eating turf -- and there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to shore up the coverage thing should the front seven fail to generate pressure, if ever.

This team is kind of like: Roger Federer after a strenuous biceps work-out. Wimpy forehand, wicked backhand.

Vs. Michigan: One thing Michigan failed to do last year was sufficiently test the fragile Irish secondary. The Wolverines are much better equipped to do that this year, with the only problem being that secondary will probably be a lot less fragile. Still, it’s probably better than running into 300-pound defensive ends, am I right?

The way the two teams match up against each other gives every indication that this will be a very low scoring game, but crazy things tend to happen under the lights.

Outlook: 9-3.

• Wins: Temple, @Purdue, Arizona State, @Air Force, Navy, @Pittsburgh, BYU
• Tossups: @Michigan, Michigan State, USC, Oklahoma, @Stanford

Previously: CB Reon Dawson, CB Channing Stribling, S Delano Hill, S Dymonte Thomas, CB Ross Douglas, CB Jourdan Lewis, LB Ben Gedeon, LB Mike McCray, DE Taco Charlton, DT Maurice Hurst Jr.

Yes, yes, it's yet another four star recruit from a high powered program with extracurricular reasons to expect he'll be a success who picked Michigan over another power program. This is Michigan, fergodsakes.

In Henry Poggi's case, the high school is Baltimore private school Gilman, a powerhouse that sent two other prospects to BCS schools last year (QB Shane Cockerville went to Maryland, LB Micah Kiser to Virginia), four the year before, two the year before that, etc. etc. The extracurricular reasons are dual: 1) his father is the head coach at Gilman, and 2) he really likes the Big Lebowski. The power program bested was Alabama, which liked him enough to take a run at him right before Signing Day.

As you might expect from a coach's son, Poggi popped up early as a technically and physically advanced player. As a junior, various folks projected him to be a top, top player. Rivals had several different reports on him then. An example:

Poggi will be one of the top interior linemen in the country next season. He has size (6-4, 255) and quickness to go along with terrific athleticism, solid speed and soft hands (he made two nice grabs on Saturday). …more than held his own down in the trenches and was very effective in run support.

Other evaluations follow in the same vein, with a focus on technique, physicality, and effort. IE, Poggi has all those coaches' kid qualities you'd expect. Foremost is stamina. A two-way starter for Gilman the last two years, Poggi impressed with his fortitude:

What's most impressive about Poggi, however, is his ability to maintain his fundamentals and play through the whistle for all 48 minutes. He starts both ways for Gilman but has the stamina and desire to scrap like his job depends on it. Physically, Poggi keeps his pads low and uses his legs to generate power. He has a stiff, dead-arm punch and impeccable strength, which allows him to overwhelm inside tackles at times.

Endurance!

"Henry was awesome," he said. "He started both ways at tight end and defensive tackle. I don't know how he played as hard as he did. He was really impressive and did a really great job in the playoffs. He played every play running around and was exhausted by the end of the game, it's a tribute to his character, his motor is ridiculous."

Motor:

"He has ten sacks from his three technique position as a junior," Russell added. "He plays with incredible passion and has a non-stop motor."

. JC Shurburtt:

“There’s defensive tackles across the country that either have a lot of heart or a lot of talent. Henry’s got both,” Shurburtt said. “[He is] the complete package of what you look for in a defensive tackle.

“He’s definitely an inside guy. That’s what gives him plus athleticism.”

Scout's Brian Dohn said Poggi has a chance to be "a star grunt" in a scouting report, which makes sense despite being paradoxical. Overall the picture painted is of a guy right up Brady Hoke's alley:

What to like
In watching Poggi in person and watching lots of junior tape, a few things jump out. Mainly, he is physical. He is also physical, and when he is not playing physical, he is playing physical.

Poggi is engaged on every play, loves the contact and has the strength to make an impact on every play.

He lines up in the middle of the defensive line, and is a disruption no matter how opponents try to block him. Poggi is always moving, always looking for the ball and plays violently (in a good way). He has the body type, strength and mentality to be a classic nose guard who can handle getting hit from all angles and still be a factor because of very good balance. …

What needs works
…time and again Poggi has to rely on his strength and there are few times he gets off the line of scrimmage and gets into the backfield untouched. That is all about staying lower and maximizing his burst.

Dohn actually hits that note about playing him at the nose more than once, but it seem doubtful he'll end up the requisite size, about which more later.

Poggi was not one of the huge standouts at the UA game but did impress 247:

5. Henry Poggi, DT, Baltimore (Md.) Gillman
The 6-foot-3, 260-pound Michigan commitment lined up over the ball on Tuesday, and proved to be too quick and technically sound to be blocked one-on-one. Poggi not only flashed a quick first step, but also got small and used his hands to near perfection quickly dismissing would be blocking centers.

On the other hand, ESPN has a lot of hemming and hawing:

. … flashes a good initial burst, but is inconsistent and can be a beat slow. He does need to watch his pad level, but displays the ability to fire off the ball low and gain leverage. He is a hard-nosed player who can make good contact and be tough at the point of attack. He is active with his hands, but needs to do a better job of consistently separating from blockers. … He is a physical and high-effort player who works to get around the ball. As a pass rusher, he comes upfield hard. He will try to attack half-a-man and displays the ability to be violent with his hands. He gives effort and will make opponents work to block him, but can be a bit out of control at times. He is adequately able to quickly and tightly bend back in towards the quarterback.

They like his potential, overall but think he's more of an effort guy than a big timer, and that's reflected in their rankings for him.

There's some debate about Poggi's frame. 6'4" and heading towards 300 pounds seems pretty good to me, but ESPN's relative skepticism is largely based on a lack of upside because they perceive him as a tweener:

He possesses good height, but is a bit of a 'tweener size-wise as a defensive lineman. … While Poggi looks to carry his weight well, he may be somewhat limited in the good size he can add, making him an undersized D-tackle or more of a swing player if he stays on defense at the next level. Poggi is a tough and smart player. While he may have some limitations, he is a good football player who can help a team and be a good productive player if he can find the right position fit.

Their evaluation in fact mentions four different spots—DT, OC, FB, TE—as possibilities. A quadruple tween. A 247 evaluation from Poggi's UA game appearance has a similar concern:

The 6-foot-3, 260-pound Poggi has lineup over the ball in one-on-ones, and been very tough to block due to a quick first step, active and quick hands, a strong initial punch and the awareness to get small. While all of that ability is not in question with Poggi, his ability to carry the desired weight remains in play. While he can certainly carry 20-25 more pounds on his frame, there is a question of if he can carry the ideal weight to play over the ball at the next level.

This is a bit of a different take than early evaluations had. For instance:

At 6-4, 255, Poggi has a great frame; he's a tall, thick defender with a wide base, stout legs and broad shoulders. He plays with a low pad level, which makes him difficult to move off the ball. He also has tremendous upper- and lower-body strength, allowing him to collapse the pocket and toss offensive linemen around like a dog with a chew toy.

Or:

At 6-4, 255, he has a powerful base, long arms, broad shoulders and ideal height. … If Poggi continues to add power and build his body he'll be one of the top D-tackle recruits coming out next season.

To me that signals a guy who started being a college player early and may be closer to his physical peak than most others in his class. Think Marvin Robinson. When you're Jabrill Peppers this is just fine. When you're 270 and you already have a neck wider than your head…

…I get the concern.

So Poggi is likely to end up a three-tech, which is part of the reason I projected Hurst to nose tackle. Yeah, I am also tantalized by potentially sticking Hurst at the three but in the context of the roster it makes more sense for Poggi to end up there. FWIW, Poggi told the Baltimore Sun that Michigan would start him off at the five and move him inside when he put on enough weight, causing JC Shurburtt to shake his head:

"Maybe I’m wrong, but I just don’t think long term that [playing DE is] realistic if he wants to play beyond college and be very good,” Shurburtt said. “If he were a 3-4 defensive end we were talking about, I think he’d be in business. But I think 4-3, that’s a stretch.”

To me, those spots are near interchangeable and there's no reason to get in a huff about who's playing where at either of them, but that is a useful take on how Poggi can be an effective college player.

There is also a backup plan. Though all the sites rated Poggi as a defensive tackle, a number of evaluations paused to praise his potential as a blocking tight end. Tim Sullivan:

… Poggi showed a tenacity and quickness in his blocking that truly impressed. He wasn't perfect in the blocking game, but was very good. In fact, he could probably add weight and play guard if that's what a team needed of him (and that's where some schools, including Alabama, were recruiting him).

Another Rivals analyst:

Offensively, … where he really excelled is as a run blocker. Poggi did a great job stalemating his man at the point of attack before driving him off the ball. He showed the ability to chip, gain leverage and readjust to quick edge rushers. Right now, the only question is how much bulk he can pack onto his frame and what position he'll fit best at.

ESPN flat out suggests he'll be better on offense:

… overall skill set may be better suited as a blocking tight end and we wouldn't be surprised if he landed on offense at the next level at some point.

Michigan didn't bring in an AJ Williams type in Poggi's class and they won't in the next one; there is a large window for a second 270-280 pound face-masher on the roster, especially if Wyatt Shallman ends up moving to defense at some point.

Etc.: Has Michigan pajamas. Second team AA according to 247. First team to USA Today. 31 TFLs and 16.5 sacks as a senior. Has a brother at Iowa. Here's a big long profile on the family. USA Today interview.

Why Will Johnson or Ryan Van Bergen? Tough to choose between the two as far as how he'll end up, so let's go with both.

Will Johnson was listed at 6'4", 285 pounds by Rivals when he was a recruit and 6'5", 285 pounds by Michigan when he was a senior. While Poggi figures to add some weight from his listed 260-270, he probably won't exceed 285 by much.

Meanwhile, Johnson was a solid player as an upperclassman who was mostly a stubborn run defender. He had good technique, but his mgoblog career summary is basically this:

Johnson did okay against a wide array of double teams but not great.

Johnson was a low four star recruit to the contemporary services as well.

Ryan Van Bergen is another good comparable in size and recruiting ranking. He is the upside here as a tireless worker with some pass rush ability and fantastic balance. Poggi's endurance and high-effort playstyle are right out of the RVB playbook. Also, Poggi's hair is a virtual replica.

Guru Reliability: Moderate. Conflict between early evals and late, few camps, but high profile school and UA appearance.

Variance: Low. Good, not great size, advanced for his age, doesn't seem to have huge upside.

Ceiling: Moderate. If you ask me I'd invert Hurst and Poggi's average rating. Disclaimer: I'm just this guy on the internet. Poggi should be a contributor, but right after watching Hurst's film my main takeaway was that Poggi lacked that dynamite first step.

General Excitement Level: Moderate. Poggi should be a solid contributor for a while.

Projection: Redshirt unless he comes in at 285 or something, which doesn't seem likely. After that will attempt to break into the three- or five-tech two-deep, with the former more likely. Three tech is actually pretty open depending on who slots where: other than Poggi it's Wormley and guys who may or may not play there: Matt Godin, Willie Henry, Maurice Hurst.

Poggi is likely to be a rotation three-tech at some point, but it's hard to predict when with the uncertainty at the spot. Ideally it wouldn't be in year two. It may be. Eventually starting may be in the cards depending on how well his compatriots work out—call it 50/50.

If Poggi doesn't end up in the two-deep at three-tech he's got a second shot as a blocking TE.