Sponsor note! If you're headed down to Dallas for the Florida game, the alumni association has packages that may be of interest. The star: an air-conditioned, open bar tailgate with adjacent parking. They've got various packages available, including a ticket + tailgate combo ($300 for adults) and a travel package with two nights at the Omni Forth Worth, transportation, tickets, and the tailgate for $799. The deadline for that is the end of the month. 

Hit up the Alumni Association website for more details.

Bill Connelly preview time. That defensive radar though:

That's from Connelly's comprehensive preview of this year's edition of Michigan. It's good, read it. S&P+ projects Michigan 10th nationally but has them just on the wrong side of 10-2 versus 9-3.

I have but one semi-quibble: as he runs down the many departures from last year's team he notes that three all-conference OL are gone. This is somehow true—both Kyle Kalis and Ben Braden made the second team—but that's an artifact of the All Big Ten coach's selections being the SID's selections and their long tenure as senior starters on a good team. A more accurate measure of the departed players' prowess is that none of them got drafted, or even invited to the combine. I think most Michigan fans are expecting a step forward on the OL despite the departures. (As long as right tackle isn't a disaster.)

Speaking of that offensive line. This is a bit of a frustrating thing to hear in re: last year.

"This year has been a lot more serious," Kugler said. "We've been getting out there and putting in the work. We'll hit the sleds occasionally but that's more for fall camp. It's about getting the technique down properly and just running through blitz cards and stuff like that, getting ready to for what we'll see against Florida."

The level of seriousness is not dependent on Jim Harbaugh, that's for sure. In the offseason it's up to the players to do it themselves, and apparently this is another level from the guys who were more Hoke holdovers than not.

Here's an excellent definition of "speed to power." From Jon Runyan Jr:

"Rashan's going to be one of the best players in the country, going up against him in practice every day is only going to help everyone -- he's the measuring stick for everyone here," offensive lineman Jon Runyan Jr. says. "He'll do this thing off the edge, they call it speed-to-power. You think he's just speed rushing you and then he comes through with a bull rush and he blows you back five yards."

Also, Rashan Gary is good.

Still a good decision. DJ Wilson is impressing in the NBA summer league:

Through three NBA Summer League games in Las Vegas, Wilson is averaging 14.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.0 blocks in 27.7 minutes per game. Draining 5 of 13 3-pointers, throwing down dunks and guarding multiple positions, the 6-foot-10 forward has made a strong first impression with his new franchise.

"He's a specimen," said Milwaukee guard and 2017 NBA Rookie of the Year winner Malcolm Brogdon. "He's big, he's athletic. Very skilled. I really like him, I think he's going to be really, really good for us."

He also signed a contract worth six million dollars, so he's got that going for him.

In other Michigan-to-the-NBA news, Derrick Walton might stick with the Orlando Magic. The Magic just waived their backup PG before his contract became guaranteed. The current roster situation:

C.J. Watson is a candidate to be cut soon (his contract becomes guaranteed on July 10) and the Magic are likely shopping D.J. Augustin’s contract, so it is possible there will be an opportunity for Walton, although the recent acquisition of point guard Shelvin Mack complicates the logistics.

If the Magic indeed move Watson and Augustin, Walton would conceivably have a chance at a job as the third point guard on the Magic behind Shelvin Mack and starter Elfrid Payton (although Kalin Lucas of the Erie Bayhawks, the Magic’s G-League affiliate, might have something to say about that).

Walton isn't an NBA athlete unless he's going for a defensive rebound, but efficient pull-up three maestros can find a spot in the league despite other deficiencies. Hopefully he sticks. If not he can be a star in Europe.

More on Josh Norris. NHL gent scouting Josh Norris after his participation at the San Jose Sharks summer camp:

"One of those guys when they're first skating around, the first five minutes, you go, 'He can move,' " Sommer said. "And a lot of guys are like that, and then you put a puck on their stick and they slow down, but he skates the same way with a puck that he does without a puck. You can just tell he's like kind of above everyone else with his skill level."

Fun fact: he spent seven years in Germany growing up because his dad was playing and then acting as general manager for a German team. He's fluent in German.

There's no way this is what it seems like. I find this hilarious since Detroit City's motto is nigh literally "fuck you", but if you think about it for a half second it's probably not what it seems like:

Gores' Palace Sports files federal trademark for 'Detroit City Soccer Club'

I am not a lawyer but it beggars belief that DCSC would not be found to violate DCFC's trademarks. Same city, same undertaking, same name save one word that is a synonym. If it means anything—and it probably doesn't—it means Gilbert and Gores are covering their bases in case they buy DCFC. Or they're just trolling the supremely trollable DCFC fanbase.

Meanwhile in Detroit's MLS bid. Dan Gilbert has submitted a final proposal to the city for the fail jail swap. Key bits:

• Gilbert pledges to build a 520 million dollar jail plus a bunch of other related stuff on East Forest avenue. Cost to the city: 380 million, with Rock responsible for any overruns.
• There is a competing bid to complete the fail jail for 320 million, with no cost overrun assurances. It also appears to be a more modest project that only completes the jail without the various other stuff.
• Gilbert makes up the 140 million dollar gap by getting the current fail jail site, where he and Gores want to build a billion-dollar stadium and mixed used blah blah blah.
• Gilbert also gets "credits" for the savings that the city forecasts as a result of combining all the criminal justice things into one campus.

The jail was suspended after a whopping 91 million dollars of overruns on a project supposed to cost 220 million total. Meanwhile the city has been spending over a million dollars a month to maintain the existing construction site.

This is a very weird stadium deal and that makes it difficult to evaluate whether or not this qualifies as a public subsidy. The 520 million number may be largely fictional, in which case the Rock deal is the city paying 60 million + whatever the land is worth. It may be real, in which case it looks fairly even. The pledge to pay for overruns could be worth nothing, or it could be worth a hundred million dollars. These "credits" are loosely defined but appear to be a way for Rock to get back some of the gap between what the county will pay up front and their projected cost for the complex. They're kind of like property tax reductions cities will offer brownfield developments.

Shifting the downside away from the city is an attractive proposition after the previous debacle. And while stadium economic impact studies are without fail overblown hoo-haw, "jail plus nothing" is worse than "jail plus soccer stadium and condos and whatnot."

If Gilbert and Gores do get the deal done, Detroit will become a highly attractive target for MLS. The ownership group consists of billionaires. The market is large and there are many nearby rivals. Detroit has a lot of immigrants to appeal to and is generally an excellent pro sports town—people still go to Lions games! And one by one other cities are finding it difficult to bring together bids without public support that is not forthcoming. Previous heavy favorites St. Louis and San Diego are all but out of the running after votes failed. Ditto Charlotte and Indianapolis. Remaining realistic locations other than Detroit are Sacramento (the one bid that is shovel ready right now), Phoenix, Tampa, Cincinnati, Nashville, and San Antonio.  Four bids will get approved; all bids other than Sacramento have hurdles to clear.

Etc.: MSU hockey loses Mason "Larry" Appleton to the NHL. He had 31 points in 35 games for a struggling MSU team and qualifies as a big loss indeed, even if no one expects much out of Danton Cole in year one. Or year two. Michigan as autonomous driving hub. Shutdown Fullcast on the Big Ten East. Freeze lawsuits. David DeJulius profiled.

AKA

Draftageddon 2017: The Peters is Happening

Draftageddon is pre-season All-Big Ten #content given the ol’ MGo-Really-Do-A-Job treatment. We hold a snake draft (1-2-3-4/4-3-2-1 etc.) of Big Ten players and try to build the best teams. You come out of it with a four-deep preseason All-Big Ten. We come out of it primed to cover the upcoming football season.

Previously: The first 10 picks (Hurst, Speight)

Where things stand after 10 picks:

1. Ohio State (4 players): DE Nick Bosa (3rd, Seth), QB JT Barrett (6th, Seth), DE Tyquan Lewis (8th, BiSB)
2. Michigan (3 players): DT Maurice Hurst (2nd, Brian), DE Rashan Gary (5th, Ace), QB Wilton Speight (a reluctant 7th, Brian)
3. Penn State (2 players): RB Saquon Barkley (1st, BiSB), QB Trace McSorley (4th, Ace)
4. Indiana (1 player): LB Tegray Scales (9th, BiSB)
5. Minnesota (1 player): DT Stephen Richardson (10th, Brian)

Keep rowing the boat Big Ten West! We stopped in the middle of the 3rd round so we’re picking up with Seth, who has already drafted two Buckeyes.

-----------------------------

Seth: ROUND 3, PICK 3: Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State

No, not the 6'9 OT who was briefly in Hoke's 2014 class.

Off: QB JT Barrett (OSU)
Def: DE Nick Bosa (OSU), CB Denzel Ward (OSU)

Okay so now I'm definitely getting myself photoshopped onto a rival's uniform. But it's hard to argue the value of this guy at #11. The conference lost a ton of cornerback talent to the NFL, leaving just 2-4 sure things, and a very clear #1 for this fall.

Ward was more or less interchangeable with OSU’s two first round draft picks, liberally rotating with Marshon Lattimore, who went #11 overall, and 24th pick Gareon Conley. His position coach didn’t see much difference between him and the 1st rounders:

“[Ward is] as good as the other two. I played three guys of equally talented ability,” [CB coach Kerry] Coombs said. “I don’t run out a guy who is not as good as they other guys. Who would do that? Have you met my boss?”

That link notes Ward allowed a Jourdan Lewis-ian 15 completions on 42 targets, breaking up 9 of those. Like Lewis, the knock on Ward is his height—just 5’10—a shortcoming (ha!) he makes up for with uncanny closing speed. A junior, Ward’s expected to be among the top corners taken in next year’s draft.

I just got a text out of nowhere from an NFL scout and it read: "Denzel Ward will be a first round pick next year."

— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman) June 28, 2017

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[Hit THE JUMP for a defense of Al Borges]

Tight End Recruiting: Dust Settling Soon?

The recruitment of top-100 NY TE Jeremy Ruckert, a newly minted five-star on 247 after a stellar performance at The Opening, is nearing a conclusion:

I will be committing to one of these 4 schools on July 17th at 3:00 PM!! #GoBlue #GoBucks #GoIrish #OnWisconsin pic.twitter.com/qfYEH7PAb4

— Jeremy Ruckert (@Jeremy_Ruckert1) July 7, 2017

Ohio State has long been the presumed leader, followed by Michigan and then the rest of the pack, and while Ruckert's been quiet about his recruitment it looks like that remains the case. Wolverine247's Isaiah Hole expects Ruckert to choose the Buckeyes after a source who'd held out hope for Michigan's chances got pessimistic:

However, speaking to the same source after Ruckert announced his decision date, that optimism had faded quite significantly. The source told Wolverine247 that Michigan hasn't made the type of gains they would have liked in recent weeks.

Unless something changes between now and Ruckert's decision date in a week and a half, all signs are now pointing to Ohio State being the choice -- they currently lead with 100% of the 247Sports Crystal Ball.

Losing Ruckert to OSU would stink, no question. Michigan still has a lot to like about their tight end recruiting, however. Four-star TX TE Mustapha Muhammad remains one of the better bets to end up in the class—Michigan owns all 23 picks on his crystal ball. Top-100 IL TE Luke Ford, meanwhile, just set up a visit for July 22nd, and 247's Steve Wiltfong thinks the Wolverines could make a big move:

Alabama and Georgia lead here but this Michigan visit I think can flip the script on the whole thing being a Midwest school that really features the TE. I expect Ford and his family to really hit it off with Coach Harbaugh and his staff and the rest of the people in town.

With the visit occurring a week ahead of the BBQ at the Big House, the coaches will be able to give Ford and family plenty of attention.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]

Morgan has the most upside of the guys [Michael Caples/MiHockey]

Michigan announced a trio of additions to the 2017-2018 hockey roster. None of these guys projects to be particularly impactful, but there are enough of them to warrant a post.

One, incoming freshman Jack Becker, was already known. What information exists on Becker, a 7th round pick in 2015, was assembled in the first bit of the recently completed Epic Hockey Recruiting Overview. In a nutshell:

He'll be 21 in January and was only even somewhat productive in the USHL in his final season, when he put up a 16-12-28 line. … very large person at 6'4" … looks to be a project who will do well to get past the third line.

He's a big body who will be elderly indeed by the end of his Michigan career and could turn into a David Rohlfs sort; more likely he ends up on a checking line for the duration.

Grad transfer Alex Roos is either a fourth liner or healthy scratch sort. He had a decent freshman season (10-7-17) with Colorado College but dropped to 6 and 5 points in the subsequent two years. He had not skated for a single game as a senior when he quit the program in January. Most likely situation: Roos is coming to Michigan to actually get a post-grad degree and will walk-on for his final year of eligibility.

The third newcomer is LSSU transfer Luke Morgan. Morgan, a 5'11" forward, had 22 points in 36 games as a 19-year-old freshman with Lake State a year ago. This was a significant uptick from 25 points in 60 games in his only year in the USHL, which may indicate he's a late bloomer. He did score a winner at Yost last year:

Laker forward Luke Morgan decided the outcome with around three minutes left in the game. The goal came off a pass from J.T. Henke, and Morgan shot right behind LaFontaine for the goal.

And hey, we've got a breakdown of that goal. It is Michigan being utterly terrible on defense:

Henke hits Morgan, who’s a stride or two ahead of the chasing Michigan defenders. He’s basically got the time and space to do whatever he desires.

Morgan decides within a stride that what he desires to do is shoot. You can see in the screen cap below that the puck has been release from Morgan's stick while LaFontaine’s almost completely in his upright crouch. I can’t tell from the replay whether this went five- or six-hole, but it found a gap as LaFontaine was getting into his butterfly; he reacted a hair too slow here.

A guy walking into the slot without anyone near enough to even take a penalty with three minutes left in the third period. 2016-17 Michigan, I will not miss you.

Anyway. Morgan will sit out this year and then enter 2018-19 as 21-year-old sophomore. That's a four-year commitment to a guy who may not have a huge ceiling. Hockey scholarships can be split so it's possible that Morgan is only getting a partial ride and Michigan's risk here is low. Morgan is essentially an incoming freshman who can't play this year, so my assumption is Michigan wanted to add a guy and at this late juncture Morgan's 0.6 PPG in the WCHA was more appealing than various overagers still floating around out there.

[COOL NEWS: MGoBlog will be at WTKA this Thursday, July 13, starting at 8:30 a.m. The first hour we’ll have Billy Taylor, Fritz Seyferth, Dr. Sap, and possibly Jim Brandstatter and Larry Cipa on to talk about BT’s TD and the early Bo years. Afterward Ace and Brian and I will talk about the stuff in HTTV, which is basically this football season.]

Coach Hanlon deserves a helmet sticker for this one. [Dr Sap]

In this year’s edition of Hail to the Victors (now sold in our online store, at Ann Arbor Underground Printing locations, at Literati, and on Kindle) Michigan historian Steve “Dr. Sap” Sapardanis—known to many of you as the author of Dr. Sap’s Decals—spoke with all the key guys involved in Billy Taylor’s 1971 game-winning touchdown on Ohio State. If you, like me, weren’t even a glimmer in some miscreant college students’ eyes at the time, here’s that play.

Coach Jerry Hanlon, Bo’s right hand man and definitively untitled guy who happened to do a lot of offensive coordination, was kind enough to go over the playcall with Dr. Sap for his article. The short version is it was a crack option sweep that they had prepared in case Ohio State showed an 8-man (goal line) front. The playbook—which Coach shared with us—had the exact eventuality planned and practiced. In fact the notes from Hanlon’s copy explicitly called for his quarterback to check—“Recognition 8 call possiblity”—into this if Ohio State went to a goal line.

Always prepared.

That is exactly what (backup) QB Larry Cipa did. So to all you UFR scorers at home, this play is definitely some kind of RPS. But there’s an older scoring system. Coach Hanlon was also the guy responsible for giving out helmet decals. So Dr. Sap asked who got one for this play, and after joking everybody did, Coach realized the kindly answer simply wouldn’t do. Not at Bo’s Schembechler’s Michigan. No, we demanded the actual scoring system. He unsurprisingly didn’t remember exactly, so Coach went over every guy’s assignment and re-scored it for us.

-----------------------------

Here’s the criteria the coaches used back in the day to award decals to each of their position players:

1) Was the correct assignment carried out by the player?
2) Did the player execute the proper technique?
3) Did the player follow-through on his assignment?
4) Did the player “get” his man?

If you scored 3 or higher, you were awarded a helmet sticker, but if you didn’t “get” your man, “NO STICKER FOR YOU!”

Here is the play (click to open in a different window to read):

And here are the position assignments for play 58/59:

Back-Side TE (Paul Seal): Release shallow along Line of Scrimmage; Throw and Roll 3 times.

Back-Side tackle (Jim Coode): Lead inside #2 cross-field; Peel or Turn upfield.

Back-Side Guard (Reggie McKenzie): Lead block to play-side; Head up middle guard if exposed.

Center (Guy Murdock): Lead Block “0” in odd defense; Lead with front foot to front-side; scramble and sustain; Seal backside. Even defense – lead front-side gap and pick up back-side linebacker.

Front-Side Guard (Tom Coyle): Lead block ready to pick up angle in tackle when #1 is LB; Fire hard with head up; Do not get body turned; Sustain.

Front-Side Tackle (Jim Brandstatter): Lead block #2; Get head and arms beyond; Scramble and sustain; Keep long axis of body upfield; Be ready to pick up LB on angle in.

Front-Side Tight End (Paul Seymour): Seal man in tackle area; If not needed, seal LB; Release deeper; Ready to block man crossing your face; Prevent penetration; Block #3(DE) if #4(CB) is on Line of Scrimmage.

Front-Side Split-Out (Bo Rather): Use Rooster or Crack block; On corner coverage, bump corner.

Quarterback (Larry Cipa): Open and sprint to the end; Option End; Pitch ball whenever possible. Look pitch to tailback.

Fullback (Fritz Seyferth): Sprint to play-side gaining one yard to end-of-line area; Do not turn up too soon; Sprint to widest defender and overthrow on him; Block any defender who crosses your path.

Tailback (Billy Taylor): Sprint to play-side; Keeping phase (4 yards away) on FB; Keep eyes on QB; Look ball in on pitch; Cut off the FB’s block (never cut upfield until FB blocks).

-----------------------------

So without further ado, here’s how he’d score it:

Seal: “Released inside. Not a great block. Made contact. Changed course of defender. (3)”

Coode: “Led inside, but did not get upfield. Don’t really want to give him a two…(reluctant 2)”

McKenzie: “4”

Murdock: “4”

Coyle: “4”

Brandstatter: “Led technically on 2-Call. Did not “get” man, changed his course enough…(2, borderline 3)”

Seymour: “Did not sustain, but did seal inside. (3)”

Rather: “Good position & technique. Should have followed-through more. (4)”

Cipa: “Pretty good optioning of end, but does end up blocking him. (4)”

Seyferth: “Great open-field block. Just a wonderful block. (4)”

Taylor: “4”

Previously: Last year's profiles. S J'Marick Woods, S Jaylen Kelly-Powell, S Brad Hawkins, CB Ambry Thomas, CB Benjamin St-Juste, LB Drew Singleton, LB Jordan Anthony, LB Josh Ross, DE Kwity Paye, DE Luiji Vilain, DE Corey Malone-Hatcher, DE Deron Irving-Bey, DT Donovan Jeter.

Guys like Phil Paea tend to burst out of nowhere because they live in the middle of it. Paea's hometown, Berrien Springs, has just 1800 people; he spent his high school years taking on Paw Paw, Otsego, Dowagiac, and the like. He was not on the radar. Paea was such a total unknown that he was getting major offers before he even had a profile at any site. His first mention on this here site came a couple weeks after last year's Signing Day, noting that Michigan, MSU, and Oregon had suddenly come in for this guy right here. Notre Dame and USC(-ish) offered in the weeks afterward.

None could hold off Michigan. Paea committed shortly after a visit on which he was proverbially blown away, and that was that. Paea's recruitment lasted six weeks from first major offer to commitment, with not a waver after.

The quick decision on Michigan eliminated Paea's desire to camp anywhere, so recruiting sites were a bit handcuffed. Paea's definitely a D-I athlete with a burst of impressive offers, but the only football he's played is against cities named after obscure fruits. Everyone seemed to settle on the same conclusion: let's put this guy right on the 3/4 star borderline. He's the #29 DT on Scout; 28 got four stars. He's the #20 OG on Rivals; 18 got four stars. He's on barely the right side of the line at ESPN and about 50 spots away from it at 24/7. It's a shruggie consensus.

I do like a very specific thing that pops up in a couple of scouting reports. Paea appears to be a natural at the weirdest thing about football. Coach Tony Scaccia:

"Phillip has the innate ability to extend his hips and get great leverage and power out of his lower body. He is as strong as you can be with his lower body and he's got some things that he can do better too.

"He can use his hands better, he can play with better leverage in terms of his pad level, but in terms of unlocking the hips and playing with great force, he is as strong as I've ever seen and I've been coaching high school football for 10 years now."

That's not just coach hype, as ESPN picked up on the same trait:

…very good overall size. …thick, sturdy base … excellent playing strength with adequate first-step quickness. … tools to be a stout run defender. Demonstrates ability to fire out with pad level and uncoil and win the leverage battle and when he does is a player with a powerful base that can hold ground. Flashes heavy hands that can jolt blockers, but needs to continue to develop hand usage. … Powerful player that can fire out and push blockers back. … Looks to rely on raw ability and effort.

As did Clint Brewster:

…powerful frame with a dense lower body. …ability to get out of his stance and fire off the ball make him a dominant athlete in the trenches. He’s got the knee-bend and fluid movements you like to see from big lineman. He generates good power from his legs and hips. … comes out of his stance with good bend, pad level, and explosion into his opponent. He’s got heavy hands and can really move people. The power in his upper body and ability to strike people once he gets going on the move is impressive. …nastiness you like to see in the trenches.

Anyone who's read a significant number of these knows how unusual these takes are. "Pad level sucks" is such a high school scouting trope that if it gets mentioned at all in these pieces it's a tossed off "negatives are the usual pad level stuff." (Naturally, amongst these many positive takes here's Scout listing pad level as an area for improvement.) Many touted linemen have seen their careers founder because they could not do the weird football thing where you run around in a crouch and then explode on contact. Paea appears to be the rare guy who's got it down already.

That doesn't necessarily mean he's polished or ready to play. He just does the weird football thing good. Other aspects of his game are as raw as you'd expect coming from a small-school guy who hasn't actually played any DT yet. (When Adam scouted him Berrien Springs had him lining up a yard off the line of scrimmage as a standup end.) ESPN references that in the evaluation above and it's another frequent theme. After catching Paea in person, Allen Trieu returned with a high-upside, long-way-to-go take:

The bottom line on Paea is, he has great physical tools and he is raw technically. For a big kid, he can not only chase and pursue, but he shows quick twitch and athleticism that is rare in his body. He is strong. …plays hard and did that all game despite going both ways and never seemed to tire. Having watched linemen go both ways all season and not always last until the final bell, it was impressive to see his level of conditioning.  

When Rivals took a look at his film they saw him "simply firing off at the snap and then figuring out what to do" and said he "has to learn to play with leverage and use his hands." Later Brandon Brown would note that "he's just bigger, stronger, and more athletic" than anyone else on the field. This is a situation where technique is difficult to acquire because everything works.

The final Paea theme is that he's a Harbaugh kind of guy. Trieu mentioned his impressive conditioning as a two-way lineman, and that pops up repeatedly. Adam noted that he "never takes a play off, and he’s always looking for the ball"; ND's 24/7 site praised his "terrific stamina," strength, physicality, and toughness. Helmholdt:

"He has ideal size for either position, ideal athleticism, and just has that mentality you look for from a guy playing in the trenches. He has that healthy aggression and plays with a level of intensity and aggressiveness that you’re looking for out of a young high school lineman." 

And the intangible intangibles seem in order:

"He's got great athleticism, great work ethic, great family support system. He's a die-hard football kid, he just loves everything about it. He's a great teammate. ... He's our unquestioned leader. All those things added together makes a pretty special kid."

It says something about something that Paea is one of the five lowest-ranked kids in the class. It says this is an awesome class.

Paea is a genuine two-way lineman. Any DT taller than 6'2" will garner some mentions about his potential on the other side of the ball, but in Paea's case his versatility is real. Sixty pounds ago Paea started his high school career as a running back and linebacker, and he's got more relevant OL experience than DT. He was an end after moving down to the DL. When he committed to Michigan the first words out of Scaccia's mouth were about blocking:

"He's a dominant run blocker, a tough, physical kid who is a great athlete for his size and relentless."

Later Scaccia would tell MLive that he thinks Paea has more upside on offense, an opinion that's shared by many. Rivals actually ranks him as a guard; 247 mentioned that there's "no question he could be an outstanding guard or center"; ESPN asserted that he's "a little more comfortable on offense." Brown caught Paea in person and came away impressed with his ability on offense:

…long, strong arms, and a very proportional lower body that allows him to run and move in a way that people his size usually cannot. During one play on offense he drove block a defender into the ground and while the opponent was doing backwards somersaults, Paea hurdled him and kept running down the field. …devastating run blocker. His size, strength, and mobility were very apparent on plays where he pulled. He was nimble enough to get out in front of running plays and powerful enough to put defenders on the ground routinely.  

Michigan has consistently said they will start Paea at DL, and that makes sense. He could be an early rotation piece on a DL that needs depth; he is unlikely to be a quick starter on offense. Berrien Springs doesn't even have a seven step drop in their offense. The OL version of Paea is starting from ground zero in pass protection.

Paea will get a look on offense if and when Michigan has a solid grasp on where the 2017 class is going to play and what the depth chart looks like at DT—ie, if and when Michigan is confident they've got a three deep.

Etc.: Leads haka. Very Harbaugh:

2017 DT Phillip Paea (MI) just told me that he and #Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh had a wrestling match during his visit Wednesday night.

— Brandon Justice (@BrandonBJustice) February 26, 2016

Why Matt Godin? Instate player who lives on the 3/4 star borderline with good size and middling explosiveness. Godin was a couple inches taller than Paea but only got up to 294 by his fifth year. Paea should be able to hit that weight or more in a slightly more compact package, which will make him plausible as a nose tackle.

Other comparables include Terrance Taylor, who was the kind of neutron-star dense interior DL who anchored his ass off against the run but couldn't offer much pass rush, and Will Johnson. On offense, Paea projects similarly to Kyle Kalis as a rough and tumble guard who will move people once he gets latched on. Paea probably won't have the incessant missed assignment issue Kalis had—certainly not if he's starting.

Guru Reliability: Moderate-plus. Lockstep evaluations on the 3/4 star borderline, but a lot of projection from class B football and positional uncertainty. A number of reports were along the lines of "we like this guy but need more information" and then the rankings folk didn't go out and get it.

Variance: Moderate. Tiny school to college is a big leap. Size won't be an issue, and apparently neither is natural bend. Family stuff a positive.

Ceiling: Moderate-plus. Big body with middling quickness does not often pan out into stardom on the DL. Could be a productive snap-eater, especially if surrounded by the folks it looks like he will be surrounded by. Upside as a guard could be very high.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-plus. Praise Harbaugh that this is what the back end of the class looks like. Paea has an encouraging suite of offers, a lot of reasons for optimism, and seems lost in the rankings largely because of his circumstances.

Projection: One of the most obvious redshirts in the class unless he pulls a huge upset in fall camp. From there just about anything is on the table. Michigan will give him a test drive at guard during the bowl practices and/or spring and decide where to go from there.

If he sticks on defense he's probably going to end up as a plugger and rotation piece early, potentially maturing into a starter in his last year or two. He is likely to evolve into a nose tackle based on the roster, which has a number of young three-tech candidates in Irving-Bey, Jeter, Dwumfour, and Hudson. The fit at nose tackle is less than ideal for most of those folks, leaving just Solomon as a pure NT.

Paea also has a wait in front of him if he ends up at guard. Both projected starters will still be around in three years, knock on wood, so Paea's first shot at starting on offense will be as a redshirt junior. Unless Cesar Ruiz busts, Bredeson flipping out to tackle would be the only way to open up an interior OL slot before then.