So after several weeks and therapy I think we're ready to dispassionately regard things of a college football nature without the hurting. This is good because we know things about college football, and can use that knowledge for good, or you know, for picking fantasy teams.
This week we're congregating in the college football $20k mini cash bowl. It's a $2 entry fee with $20k in prizes, and a lot of space left. I liked it because the bowl lineup has a lot of teams I pay attention to, including all the New Years Day games.
Everyone has their tricks for drafting; I like to bring in advanced stats to know things like are both teams going to be playing at a high tempo (so more plays for my draftees) and if his opponent is an outlier against the relevant element (run/pass) of offense. I'll share my table for the pool of draftable players in this game, and highlight outliers (top 20 or bottom 30):
|Matchup||Pass Def Rk||Rush Def Rk||Plays/Min (rk)|
|Game||Tm1||Tm 2||Tm1||Tm 2||Tm1||Tm2|
|Florida St. vs. Oregon||58||33||50||42||2.37 (73)||2.74 (11)|
|Washington vs. Oklahoma St.||55||53||47||41||2.51 (41)||2.53 (36)|
|Iowa vs. Tennessee||65||13||24||22||2.33 (77)||2.5 (42)|
|Kansas St. vs. UCLA||51||23||27||54||2.08 (113)||2.62 (25)|
|Ohio St. vs. Alabama||10||26||37||1||2.33 (81)||2.28 (90)|
|Houston vs. Pittsburgh||93||76||111||93||2.45 (50)||2.07 (116)|
|Missouri vs. Minnesota||22||43||11||30||2.37 (70)||2.08 (112)|
|Wisconsin vs. Auburn||31||47||29||18||2.03 (123)||2.42 (56)|
I got tempo by dividing the total number of offensive plays by time of possession from NCAA's stats (saving the greater study for an offseason column). Rankings are from Football Outsiders' S&P+. From there you have to eyeball—a low tempo doesn't mean skip the guy and a bad rush defense doesn't mean you have to take that RB, but it does say if you're looking at spending $11k of your salary pool on Melvin Gordon it's good to know that Auburn has a pretty good rush D. Wisconsin's slow pace is Wisconsin's slow pace; Auburn's average pace suggests Gordon will get the usual amount of touches.
-$20,000 prize pool.
- First place wins $2,000
- $2 entry fee (FREE with first deposit).
- Top 2,300 win money guaranteed
- Starts on Thursday, January 1st at 12:00 PM EST
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 players
- Roster Format: 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 Flex
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600
never not funny
ANOTHER DAY FULL OF TREAD. Status quo after the Dolphins news yesterday. May get some leaks tomorrow if the players get some info; I am guessing Hackett doesn't put anything definitive in that call because he knows anything he says is going to get out. Hoping we get a coy but confident read from that.
Insiders now settling in: most are saying they are cautiously optimistic, think Harbaugh has told people it's happening, but are wary of NFL offers. Steve Lorenz pulled the trigger on a 247 Crystal Ball pick, so there's that. He's been on the verge of one for a while, and a couple things pushed him over the line($), including "'strong rumblings' from the agent side of things"—again information that does not seem to be part of the Michigan echo chamber.
UNLESS…? There are some rumblings this could be the done deal day. Those Who Stay says there's an agent meeting today; Mysterious Insider GFunk has been positive before and just went to 100% on Rivals; some rando who likes My Name Is Earl on twitter says it's done. I've got a couple of similar reports.
Individually I'd shrug those off, but a lot of them coming in quick succession may be a real thing.
MORE POSITIVE BITS. Another day, more confidence from within the echo chamber. Gregg Henson has a couple former players who are on board now and weren't before. Meanwhile the NFL reporter moonwalk continues:
Adam Schefter on SportsCenter: Limited quality NFL opportunities could mean Jim Harbaugh's best opportunity in 2015 is coaching at Michigan.
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) December 22, 2014
Pretty much the same number and level of NFL jobs will come open as everyone was expecting earlier this year. That's some spin right there.
TELEPHONE EXEMPLAR. Jay Glazer is reporting that the 49ers and Harbaugh are going to part ways within 48 hours of the season's end; he appears to be the only one doing so. It's tough to tell these days as any piece of news is replicated across a dozen platforms with REPORT tacked on the front of it, but I think it's just Glazer in a brief TV segment. Kawakami tweeted something similar, but he's not being passed around as a REPORT.
I bet Glazer's right; I also think that people are reading too much into his statement. He picked an intentionally vague phrase to communicate what's going down: "end that relationship." SI transformed that into "fired." Rivals asserts that Glazer is reporting the 49ers "will not seek a trade for compensation." Glazer did no such thing. He just said expect the two parties to move quickly after the season.
This obviously has implications for Michigan. If the 49ers are going to fire Harbaugh that potentially saves them some money; if they've given up on the idea of trading him at all that's a big hint as to where things are going. Unfortunately, Glazer said no such thing.
That's a good example of how things get twisted as they get passed along, at least. Why I'm more cautious than might be warranted.
PLAN B. This isn't directly about Michigan, but Adam Schefter reports that David Shaw isn't even thinking about leaving Stanford for the NFL:
Any NFL team hoping to make a major run at Stanford head coach David Shaw will, in all probability, come away disappointed, sources tell ESPN. …But those who know the 42-year-old Shaw now believe he will not leave Stanford, no matter how much the NFL wants him.
This is the opposite of the usual play for a coach coming off a meh year. Agents will float their guy as a possibility here or there in an effort to get an extension or at least some patience; this is not a guy who thinks he's under any threat saying stay away. That almost certainly means he won't be responsive to Michigan inquiries.
I didn't want to punt from the opponent 29 anyway.
ALSO IN PLAN B. Michigan is covering all their bases. They had a meeting Friday about Plan B, C, and D options. No names came out of that, unfortunately. They are checking out NFL coordinators, which is disappointing but sensible given the landscape post-Harbaugh. If Mullen and Miles aren't real candidates for whatever reason, the next option is…? I honestly don't know.
Don't panic—Michigan remains confident they'll get their guy. They are doing due diligence so they can move quickly even if Harbaugh doesn't come. This means it is not a "done deal"… as of a few days ago.
I'M NOT SURE THAT'S WHO YOU WANT TO RIDE WITH. That Rivals report also addresses that La Canfora article scoffed at around here yesterday:
For the record, he's right about Harbaugh briefly accepting the Michigan job [in 2011], U-M coveting his brother and John Harbaugh making it clear he wants to stay at Baltimore, and we've reported that in the last month. We also reported Michigan's interest in Payton, at which point reporters like Fletcher Mackel out of New Orleans dismissed it as "embarrassing."
I've heard a lot of different things about Harbaugh "briefly accepting" the job in 2011, and they're all semantics. Mostly those assertions are used to make the insider feel good about being wrong or paint Harbaugh in a negative light. I don't buy them, and I've heard as much stuff about how Brandon scared Harbaugh off as stuff about how it almost happened.
We know that The Process didn't end up firing Rodriguez until January 5th, the same day Harbaugh met with the 49ers for five hours. The Michigan job is open for all of a day before Harbaugh is hired. Either Michigan was actively undermining the guy who was supposedly still their head coach or the brief acceptance thing is a joke. It is certain that there was no point at which Harbaugh agreed to coach Michigan while the job was actually open. If he verbally assented to coach Michigan in December, it is on Dave Brandon for not locking that down by maintaining the fiction that Rich Rodriguez had a shot to keep his job.
Meanwhile, trying to buttress your argument that Sean Payton was really an option with an article that mentions Doug Marrone and Jason Garrett…
Michigan (6-5) vs.
Coppin State (1-9)
Ann Arbor, Michigan
|WHEN||8 pm ET, Monday|
|LINE||Michigan -22 (KenPom)|
PBP: Eric Collins
Analyst: Shon Morris
Right: We're befuddled too, Jim.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. %Min and %Poss figure are from this season now—yes, there will be a fair amount of noise in these numbers for a while. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open.
|G||11||Taariq Cephas*||Sr.||5'10, 165||69||22||No|
|Decent 3-pt shooter, good number of assists, poor shooter inside arc.|
|G||10||Christian Kessee||So.||6'2, 180||54||20||No|
|Low volume, high efficiency outside shooter. Bad inside arc. Turnover-prone.|
|G||24||Sterling Smith*||Jr.||6'4, 185||63||17||Yes|
|Just 29% 3-pt on nearly 2/3 of his total FGA.|
|F||3||Arnold Fripp*||Sr.||6'7, 210||67||22||No|
|Best (only) inside-outside threat. Plays a lot of C despite low reb. numbers.|
|C||2||Lawrence Fejokwu||Jr.||6'9, 260||35||12||Very|
|Decent block/steal rates. Not a great rebounder. Very foul-prone. Shoots 30%.|
|G||5||Daquan Brickhouse||Sr.||5'8, 160||48||15||Yes|
|Good assist:turnover. Top-100 steal rate. Lives up to name: 39% eFG.|
|G||21||Jahvari Joseph||Sr.||6'4, 185||40||25||Yes|
|Volume shooter, solid inside arc (18/34), terrible outside of it (3/21).|
|F||1||Dallas Gary||Sr.||6'5, 210||26||27||Yes|
|5/22 2-pt, 2/13 3-pt, turnover-prone, low rebound #s. 53.1 ORtg. Yikes.|
Coppin State is, um, not good. Their lone win this year came at home against Goldey Beacom, which is not an off-brand cable company but a 3-8 D-II squad. They've lost to three teams ranked in the 200s on KenPom. In their four matchups against top-100 teams, the smallest losing margin they've had was 21 points, the next-smallest 37. They share a common opponent with Michigan: Oregon, whom the Wolverines beat by seven and the Eagles lost to by 42.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
[ed-Seth: Sources with close ties* to Jim Harbaugh are now saying with 99% certainty that his decision between Michigan and the NFL will not come down to who has the better barbecue. However we're not going to take the chance.
We have therefore brought back Joe Pichey from MMMGoBluBBQ to share his tailgating recipes, and Stubb's has again offered to sponsor it. This is one of those things where we really liked their BBQ sauce, and they like this blog, and the blog likes Joe's recipes, and we all want Harbaugh to come back to Ann Arbor very much.]
* [The ties my sources mailed to Harbaugh are in San Francisco and "out for delivery" according to UPS, so these are very close ties indeed.]
It's time to get serious. I can't keep checking the internet for coaching updates and hang on to the tiny bit of sanity I have left. The only way to keep the smartphone out of my hand is by replacing it with a set of grilling tongs. I also want to help make coaches decision a little easier.
The best way i know to do that is to offer a HOMECOMING Holiday Honey Ham with a side of Bacon Wrapped Stuffing Balls. I can almost guarantee that we are the only team extending this offer. Almost!! (You never know with that Davis group out in Oakland).
This is my favorite recipe for holiday ham and can be done for 1/3 the cost of those "wait in line all day" Honey Hams.
Spiral Sliced Smoked Ham (Bone In - Shank Portion)
1 cup Packed brown sugar
1/4 Cup Honey
2 TBS Dijon Mustard
3 - 4 TBS Apple Cider Vinegar (add more if needed to make wetter glaze)
1 TSP Cayenne pepper (optional)
2 TBS Fresh ground pepper
1 TBS Worcestershire sauce.
Bacon wrapped Stuffing Balls:
Stuffing (use your favorite stuffing recipe)
[After the jump, the trick is to keep the indirect heat on]
Harbaugh in a light moment with Michigan State offensive coordinator Jim Bollman
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT TODAY. Been waiting to see if anything major would come in, either publicly or privately. Nothing has. At this point that's a good thing: the closer we get to the 28th without a major shift in how things are going, the better. Everyone thinks it's happening.
BUT A COUPLE OF MEATY TIPS. A couple of additional circumstantial bits I've got:
- The wife of a current 49ers assistant coach stating that Michigan fans are going to be "real happy about something as soon as the season's over."
- John Elway, who tried to hire Harbaugh in 2011, telling some business associates that Harbaugh to Michigan is "pretty much" a done deal.
- More player grapevine stuff indicating that Harbaugh will announce for Michigan as soon as the 49ers season is over.
I enjoy the first two bits a lot because they have nothing to do with a potential echo chamber amongst the Michigan side of things. Neither of these sources is direct or established with me, but both had specifically credible paths to the people in the know. There's been positive stuff I've heard that I appreciate but doesn't move the needle much; these two tips are substantial ones.
NO PHIN ZONE. Miami Herald reporter David Neal:
#Dolphins Stephen Ross. Just said Philbin is coming back next season
— David Neal (@DavidJNeal) December 21, 2014
(His account isn't verified but he's legit.) The Dolphins sticking with Philbin is good news for Michigan; announcing it now is better. Ross could well wait to make that determination until after the season, when Harbaugh is loose. Saying it now preserves our canary. It also implies that there's no reason to wait to see if he's available.
ANOTHER NFL GUY REVISING HIS POSITION. Like Adam Schefter before him, Ian Rapoport continued walking back his previously dismissive take on Harbaugh to Michigan:
"He is conflicted about Michigan," Rapoport said Saturday on NFL Network's NFL Total Access. "He is a little surprised, talking to people close to him, about how hard the Maize and Blue have pulled at him. But he also knows he wants to be an NFL coach. He does not want to leave the area and the Oakland Raiders do seem to be the top suitor for him."
The bit about how he's "surprised" at how hard the block M pulls at him feels like a bit of CYA. The Michigan end of this is not surprised at all, so doubtful Harbaugh is. In any case: Rapoport moves from NFL true believer to apostate.
TIMELINE. This will happen or not happen quickly after the 49ers season ends—Jay Glazer says within 48 hours. He also mentions the Bears as a possible landing spot.
THIS WAS PHOTOSHOPPED. It got me, so I tweeted it. I then noticed a lot more RTs of the original than my correction, so a reminder that this did not actually happen:
block M on playcard is not real
Well played, anonymous internet photoshop bandit.
PLAN C, FOR CUMONG. As a football guy who makes forays into soccer writing for the USMNT I've had a hard time taking Jason La Canfora seriously after he moonlighted as a World Cup guy for CBS. Guy described the USA's smash-and-grab win against Ghana as a new thing for the States instead of what they'd been doing for much of their existence. I realize now that I needed the Kermit sipping tea meme to exist last summer.
But anyway, La Canfora is one of the NFL reporters who has been claiming that the idea of Harbaugh to Michigan is ridiculous, because The Shield rules all, etc. This morning he put out an article about their non-Harbaugh options. The names:
Michigan has maintained a desire to land Harbaugh's brother, John, as well, sources said, but the Ravens coach has made it clear he has no interest in leaving Baltimore. Other NFL coaches on the school's radar include New Orleans' Sean Payton, Buffalo's Doug Marrone and Dallas' Jason Garrett (who is expected to sign an extension with the Cowboys shortly after the season).
That list could not be more transparently calculated to make agent friends. You have a guy with a massive contract who's missing the playoffs (Payton), a second-year guy who has seen considerable improvement but remains on the hot seat (Marrone), and a guy literally negotiating an extension right now (Garrett). Oh and John Harbaugh, who is included because Harbaugh.
La Canfora maintains that Michigan has little shot at Jim Harbaugh, a program alum with a dedication to Michigan that verges on insane, and then drops the names of three sitting NFL coaches with exactly zero connection to Michigan. This fails basic sanity checks. Relegate La Canfora to the ranks of those who witlessly parrot anything an agent tells them.
PLAN B. Nobody's talking about Gundy anymore as even a plan B, but there continue to be indications his working environment is unpleasant:
“My football coach doesn’t want to play anybody any good, definitely, but jiminy Christmas, we looked pretty good against Florida State,” Holder said of the 2014 season opener, which the Cowboys lost 37-31. “Until we beat OU, that was the highlight of our season.”
I very seriously doubt we get to the point where this is relevant, but slow day.
HERE'S A WEIRD QUOTE. The SF Gate tracked down Jerry Hanlon:
"Would he be a good coach? Heck, Jimmy’s already proven himself,” said Hanlon, a Michigan assistant from 1969-91. “Would they like him around here? I’ve said, 'As far as I know, he’ll be welcome when he first comes in. How long it’s going to stay that way, I don’t know.’ But, really, I know a lot of people would like to see it.”
Says a lot about the recent history of the program that Hanlon would be wary about how long Harbaugh's honeymoon would last even before he's locked down.
ON MEETINGS. Rapoport reports that Michigan and Harbaugh have not yet met face to face, which I also think is true. True in an official sense, anyway. Harbaugh meets Michigan face to face whenever Charles Woodson's on the opposite sideline or he gets a phone call. Hackett not so much.
Rivals is buzzing about a seemingly unnecessary step to make that meeting happen, with high tech whatnot going back and forth on planes to set up a "face to face" meeting that doesn't require anyone to leave town. Have you heard of Face Time, guys? I hope the sophisticated HD camera setup is really just an intern with an iPad. But anyway: some form of official face to face meeting is happening in the near future, possibly tomorrow.
Meanwhile, a clarification on an earlier statement: I said that the 23rd and 30th were potentially important days because they were dates Hackett was scheduled to meet with the players. Those "meetings" are conference calls; the team is obviously scattered to the four winds until January.
BEST GIFT EVER. Eight dollar khakis FTW.
THE VERB REPLACED IS "STEP," YOU DEGENERATES
Via MGoUser Red_Lee
A BRIEF FOLLOW-UP ON "IT'S DONE." Ace debunked it yesterday; let me add my voice to the chorus of No Way. I am sure Marcellus Wiley does have serious people telling him it's a done deal. I have that. Many other people have that. There are many people saying it. That does not mean it's true. Done means pen to paper, press conference scheduled. That does not describe Harbaugh's situation.
I would triple that skepticism in re: Paul Finebaum's report of same. It's not done.
This is why it's a coaching fiasco—no matter the outcome. It's a circus and will always be a circus.
FWIW. Alejandro Zuniga compiled the full text of Wiley's assertion:
BUT IT SOUNDS PRETTY GOOD YOU GUYS. I continue to get stuff too vague to Report but seemingly credible that indicates Michigan's AD is extremely confident this is getting done, with the current focus on handling buyout issues with San Francisco and an announcement by December 30th.
I fully believe many people in the AD and a big community of Harbaugh friends and acquaintances think it's all over but the shouting. I don't know if I believe they're 100%right, if you get my drift. Someone can always come in with a Godfather NFL offer. Going to be a long 8-10 days coming up.
SCHEFT SHIFT PART II. In the meantime I'd rather have randos coming out of the woodwork to say it's happening instead of it's not happening. It is also good when previously-adamant NFL guys are beginning to say it's possible. Ace mentioned Adam Schefter's apparent shift from "no way" in a lengthy Facebook post. First:
49ers HC Jim Harbaugh’s family and friends have been encouraging him to take the Michigan HC job, but he is torn because his heart is in the NFL, per sources close to the situation.
That's pretty good news, especially since I find the idea that Harbaugh's heart is in the NFL to be questionable at best. This is a guy who can't help quoting Bo about every press conference.
The rest of Schefter's post is a mixture of obvious bunk and interesting bits. Schefter asserts Michigan might not be able to wait, which is nuts. They are fully prepared to wait on Harbaugh until the 28th. They told their players they should expect a coach when they come back on January 4th. It is a a recruiting dead period (you can call but no face to face meetings) until then and if they have a good shot at Harbaugh—they do—they'd be insane to move on before he responds to an offer. Schefter also makes the bonkers assertion that "some have pointed out that recruiting would be a challenge," which may stand as the nuttiest thing said about this coaching search.
On the other hand, Schefter reports that:
- Harbaugh's agent "has a good sense of realistic NFL options already," though this directly contradicts an assertion earlier in the post.
- Harbaugh's wife is okay with a return to An Arbor.
So I don't know how seriously to take anything specific in there. The overall thrust is a guy going from utterly dismissive to serious, though, and that's a big move.
WHERE THE EXTREME SKEPTICISM MAY BE COMING FROM. NFL guys talk to agents, mostly. They've been adamant it isn't happening. Therefore: agent probably the reason NFL guys are so adamant. (That and NFL-level arrogance.) Agent likely has a vested interest in being adamant because he wasn't Harbaugh's agent when he was in college and might not be if he returns there. Dunn does not represent college coaches.
This isn't necessarily to say he's acting in bad faith, but he may be inclined to tilt towards something personally beneficial to him, and also to make NFL teams snap at the bait.
NO. Mike Florio reports that Harbaugh turned down a larger offer from Michigan than he got from the 49ers back in 2011—$5.2 million a year in fact. That is false. Negotiations with Harbaugh never got that far. That number was drawn up out of thin air by an agent: you can tell because the great and powerful NFL didn't pay him more than Michigan was offering when that's chump change to them.
A FOLLOWUP ON THE ROSS BIT. Yesterday I mentioned the Miami Herald reporting that the Dolphins were not suitors in the Harbaugh sweepstakes. I forgot to remind you that that's one of our main canaries here: if Ross gets involved with the Dolphins that's a sign the dream is dead. So far so good on that front.
PLAN B? Sam says that the ever-fluctuating Les Miles Realism Monitor is at low ebb($). IE: he doesn't seem like a realistic option. Up next would probably be swings at Stoops and Mora and then it's Mullen or a wild card with dubious qualifications.
MATTISON RETURNS? We've heard DJ Durkin's name as a possible DC before, and now Sam mentions Greg Mattison as a possible… linebackers coach($)?
It sounds nutty, but Michigan did sign Mattison to a contract that lasts through 2016 last March. For Michigan the cost of not keeping Mattison is whatever the buyout is plus whoever the new coach is—close enough to Mattison's current deal that you may as well keep him. Meanwhile Mattison was planning on retiring in Ann Arbor before Hoke got axed and if Michigan's amenable he may still want to follow through on that plan. At this point in his career, I doubt he gives a crap about job titles, and Michigan could name him associate head coach or whatever. Would be good for continuity, recruiting, and Swag Mattison memes.
A BRIEF NOTE ON TIES. A clarifying note on the lead bit from yesterday: it doesn't mean anything—it was just a friend of the Harbaughs sending him some ties as a wink-wink joke. Somehow the receipt got loose and several people sent it to me, which I thought was funny. I thought it was clear this was just a "look at us we're crazy people" joke; if that was not clear it should be now.
One thing it's not: a "complete fabrication($)." That's what Tom Beaver called it, which is rich from a guy who spent the duration of TomVH's career at this blog implying that Tom was stealing his scoops from Beaver. Probably thinks he's stealing from him at ESPN now. Anyway, I have multiple independent pictures of the receipt, which I won't post because it has personal information on it and this is fundamentally trivial. But just ask yourself: when's the last time Beaver had anything checkable?
Beaver should stick to mangling the English language beyond recognizability and let the people with sources who exist outside their own head handle things.
ETC.: Wheatley on coaching in the pros versus college. Harbaugh's probably worth the money. Niners Nation poll on Harbaugh's future has Michigan as most likely option… and contract extension with 49ers #2. May not be scientific. Jamie Morris says his gut tells him Michigan will get Harbaugh.