it's a major award
Immediately place your mouse here, tap your index finger, and be whisked away to my all-time favorite series of preview diaries: EGD’s Four Plays. He draws up two base offensive plays for Michigan and two base offensive plays of the opponent, shows how each team defends those plays, and then breaks down the individual matchups. A sample:
WDE Frank Clark: Gap-exchange with WLB Joe Bolden; backside pursuit of RB Devontae Booker
NT Ryan Glasgow: Defend backside A-gap against LG Junior Salt
DT Willie Henry: Defend playside B-gap against RG Isaac Asiata, constrict playside A-gap
SDE Brennan Beyer: Defend playside D-gap (outside TE) vs. TE Westlee Tonga; backside pursuit if QB keeps, set edge point and force run back inside if QB gives
WLB Joe Bolden: Gap-exchange with WDE Frank Clark; defend backside C-gap vs. LT Jeremiah Poutasi, set edge point and force back inside if QB keeps, backside pursuit if QB gives
Make this part of your preview regimen. In other O’s, Brhino mini-UFR’d the Shane Morris plays (both rollouts so pocket presence information is unavailable).
Coaching searches are like recruiting: five stars wanted. The other big diary this week is resph1’s look at all the coaching searches among Power Five programs since 2007.
|Coaching search lesson 1|
By year four most guys in the study had their programs in better shape than the previous three seasons. Also very few of them were still around:
Only half the coachs on our list of 36 are still at their schools. It gets worse as you go farther back in time. Of the 8 coaches hired for the 2007 season, Nick Saban and Mark Dantonio are the only ones still around. A whopping 5 were fired and another (Harbaugh) left for the NFL.
Even among the 14 “winners” covered above, the story is not much better. 5 guys capitalized on their success and moved on to other positions, and 2 were fired (one scandal, on failed to sustain their initial success), only 7 remain (Snyder, Saban, Briles, Hoke, Kelly, Fisher, Cutcliffe).
I did a somewhat similar study of Big Ten and SEC coaching hires since 1999 in this year’s HTTV, breaking them into categories of “Strong” (like stealing another BCS team’s HC for unholy money), “Average” (like upgrading a proven mid-major coach or BCS/NFL coordinator) or “Cheap” (what Purdue does). Of the SEC’s 30 head coaching hires, 18 were in the “Strong” category, while economy class was reserved for only Vandy, Kentucky, and Arkansas needing a one-year stopgap; only three (Rodriguez, John L. Smith, and Urban) of the Big Ten’s 22 hires rated that, and 13 were on the cheap.
Etc. Gulo Gulo reviewed betting lines, Ron Utah reviews the last few years of Michigan football and wonders if maybe we just should feel sorry for ourselves, LSA on where Michigan stands in basic stats.
[Ed-Seth: You all know Jamie Mac, he of Just Cover Blog and the MGoPodcast, and expert on sports betting. I was at his tailgate last week for the Miami (NTM) game, and between Draft Kings’ offer to to sponsor it and Jamie’s somewhat impaired state at the moment, I was able to convince this legend to come out of writing retirement.
So here’s how it’s gonna work (for now): we’ll have a weekly spot where we identify a Draft Kings fantasy game (could be NFL, CFB, CBB, etc.) to commune in, followed by Jamie’s discussions on odds of relevance to you.]
THIS WEEK’S GAME: CFB $10K REDSHIRT [$1,000 TO 1ST]
I like Jake Butt [and HSR’s groovy image]
- $10,000 prize pool.
- $2 entry fee. Entry is free with your first deposit.
- $1,000 1st Place prize.
- Starts on Saturday, September, 20 at noon EDT
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots.
- Roster Format: 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600
THIS WEEK’S CHALK
Everyone has eliminated the Big Ten from playoff contention. I am not here to argue against that, although I am in the firm camp of letting the rest of this month and October play out before putting any serious thought into what the true pecking order should be. But keep hope alive Big Ten fans. You can still bet on some of your teams qualifying for the first ever college football final four. Here are the current odds on Big Ten teams making that postseason field.
|Odds of Michigan in the CoFoPuff this year are running about even with the likelihood that the world will apologize. [Upchurch]|
Ohio State: Yes, +400; No, -600
Michigan State: Yes, +500; No, -800
Wisconsin: Yes, +600; No, -1000
They actually have Michigan listed on this board, but there aren't any odds. Talk about a tease. What does it matter anyway. Michigan isn't making any Final Four this season. Well, at least not in football.....
GAMES OF THE YEAR UPDATED LINES
Everyone who knows me, knows I love to track the lines of the Games Of The Year that are released way back in something called June by various Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks. Let's take a minute to compare the lines for the remaining Big 10 games that were on that board. We've got three data points: opening lines from June, lines on the day the season started and lines as they stand today. It's time for a chart, with some quick thoughts afterwards.
[After the jump, updated lines and Jamie’s tips on who to draft around the league]
Previously: Utah Offense
The above is representative of Fresno State's level of offensive competence, which I guess is as nice a way as I can muster to say they had none. Given the Bulldogs are the best team Utah has faced in two games this year, it's safe to say the Utes' excellent raw defensive numbers must be accompanied with a massive grain of salt. To wit: Utah ranks in the top ten in all but one category (in which they rank 18th) for the components that make up their defensive S&P+ ranking, but when Football Outsiders accounts for schedule their overall defense S&P+ ranking ends up at #52.
We are all Jon Snow this week. Time to share all the nothing I know...
Personnel: As you'll see, Utah rolls out a lot of different defensive fronts, but their standard is usually a three-man front with DE/OLB Nate Orchard lined up as a standup rush end [click to embiggen]:
Utah's secondary is less experienced than even this graphic indicates. A rundown:
- Top corner Eric Rowe, a senior, spent his entire career to this point at free safety. In the spring, he split time between safety and corner, and at one point was listed as the starter at both positions.
- The other starting corner, Dominique Hatfield, played wideout last year and was slated to be the starting Z receiver this spring.
- Nickel Justin Thomas, a former four-star recruit, is a 23-year old sophomore. He didn't play his senior year of high school because he was too old, according to league rules. His profile doesn't list an explanation for how this happened. He started four games last year, making him the grizzled veteran among the non-safeties in the starting secondary.
- The fourth corner, Davion Orphey, started eight games last season, and yet he's behind all of the above players. This is probably related to Utah ranking 86th in opponent passer efficiency in 2013.
- Free safety Tevin Carter was a four-star Cal commit as a wide receiver in the 2010 class. He didn't stick there, stopping over at two different JuCos. He didn't play football last year and missed this spring with an injury before entering fall camp as the backup. He's now the starter.
- Strong safety Brian Blechen has 35 career starts to his name, but split his time between safety and linebacker, then missed all of 2013 due to injury.
The Utes also lost six of their top nine linebackers from last year, including their two most productive pass-rushers, and three of their top five defensive tackles from 2013, when they were already replacing first-round pick Star Lotulelei and their other starting tackle.
So, yeah, the personnel matchup suggests Michigan should have a significant advantage here, especially since the Utes are also quite undersized up front.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown, which mostly consists of Fresno State being hilariously bad at football.]
FORMATION NOTES: Hello tiny TEs. Michigan used a lot of formations where they would bring a wide receiver tight to the line to act as a blocker. Here's Chesson in what I called "pistol biggish," because it's only big-ish.
For its part, Miami ran an under front whenever presented with seven blockers for the opposition, and about 90% of the time brought a safety down late or just lined him up in the box.
This press look was not common.
Miami would roll that safety down before this snap, FWIW.
Michigan used a lot more under center stuff in this game. Under center stuff was approximately 55% of the offense after being maybe 20% against ND, and there were a lot of tight ends. Only about 40% of Michigan's snaps had 3 WRs, again way down from ND.
SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Line static: Cole/Magnuson/Miller/Glasgow/Braden. I saw Kalis in for the last drive, and I thought I saw him earlier in the game live but either I missed it in the film review or my mind was playing tricks on me. 61/67 are not easy to distinguish. Burzynski got in at the tail end at left guard.
Gardner QB; RB mostly Green, with less Smith and Hayes relegated to third down duties and some late stuff. Johnson did not appear. Mo Hurst(!) got a goal line FB snap. Showy, but a dollar says Kerridge is more effective. At TE, Butt got a little bit more time but it was still mostly Williams and Hill, with Heitzman again appearing sporadically.
Without Funchess, Darboh and Chesson were the main guys at WR, with Norfleet marginalized with a ton of 2TE sets. Damario Jones got about as much playing time than Canteen, making the first catch of the game.
[After THE JUMP: yards, eventually, and yet more infinite RB discussion.]
KLS Update: Another Contender Emerges
Michigan and UCLA have long been the top contenders for five-star CA WDE/OLB Keisean Lucier-South. After Lucier-South's first official visit, however, there appears to be more competition, per Rivals' Adam Gorney ($):
"From that visit, I was really surprised with Oklahoma and I really like them," Lucier-South said. "I just love how they work the team. I love the program. The players said the coaches are all for the players and they care about the players first and it's just like a big family.
"The whole town cares about the football team. I really like that. Oklahoma is doing great right now. I'm not going to say who my leader is but they're improving and they're doing a great job."
KLS's primary recruiter at Oklahoma is Jerry Montgomery, whom you may remember as the former Michigan D-line coach. While that would add a cruel twist if KLS ends up in Norman, U-M still gets their opportunity to impress on their own official visit when the five-star comes to Ann Arbor for the Penn State game.
[Hit THE JUMP for updates on Thiyo Lukusa's upcoming decision, new 2016 OL offers, a potential late in-state offer, and Wake Forest taking the photoshop recruiting game to creepy new lows.]
About Last Week:
Note from Samuel L. Jackson to Big Ten defenders: hold onto your Butts.
The Road Ahead:
Utah (2-0, 0-0 PAC-12)
Last game: Bye
Recap: No recap. Bye.
This team is as frightening as: I am of two minds. The first is that Utah hasn’t played anyone yet, so their two blowouts provide us almost no information. They beat Fresno State by 32… which is the closest the Bulldogs have kept a game this year (they lost by 36 at Nebraska and 39 to USC). They also beat Idaho State by 42, and at least Idaho State has won a game this year. Over Division II Chadron State. By 5. The point is that if you think the transitive property of college football is unreliable, believe me when I say that the second order transitive property is slightly more unreliable.
On the other mind, Utah has an experienced QB, a very talented receiver, a couple of quality running backs, and a defense that can walk and chew gum at the same time. And Michigan really needs this one. Fear Level = 7.
Michigan should worry about: Dres Anderson. The wide receiver is averaging 27.8 yards per catch. Which is many.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: This will be Utah’s first road game of the year. It will also be Utah’s first game against a team with a pulse.
/checks Michigan for a pulse
/moves fingers to slightly different location on Michigan’s wrist.
HA. Totally feel a pulse. Knew it all along.
When they play Michigan: The clenching. So much clenching.
Next game: @ Michigan (UM -6), 3:30 Saturday (ABC/ESPN2)
Minnesota (2-1, 0-0 B1G)
Last game: Woodshedded by TCU, 30-7
Recap: Minnesota’s team is designed around one thing: running the ball effectively. TCU stuffed Minnesota’s running game. The results were… predictable.
Minnesota ran for 2.5 yards per carry, and David Cobb was held to 41 yards on 15 carries. In the first half, Minnesota put up 111 yards of offense in nine drives. Those drives ended in three turnovers, five punts, and the sweet mercy of the halftime gun. By then TCU led 24-0, which they extended to 30-0 in the third quarter before calling off the frogs.
Mitch Leidner finished 12 of 26 for 151 yards (5.8 YPA) and 3 picks. And if THAT wasn’t enough, he ended up with a foot injury (reports are mixed between a broken toe, turf toe, and a general angering of the gypsy). He’s also coming off of a sprained MCL two weeks ago. His backup, Chris Streveler, is a redshirt freshman. I wonder if he knows how to throw a football?
I’m pretty sure “Flick the Booger” is actually Minnesota’s motto this year.
This team is as frightening as: Fighting a guy you’ve fought a bunch, and who you’ve beaten 39 of the last 42 times. Except this time he has one arm tied behind his back. And the other arm has turf toe. Fear Level = 3
Michigan should worry about: You know what you’d get from Leidner, and it is the kind of thing that Michigan is ideally suited to stop. If Streveler is in, maybe he gives Minnesota an added dimension of some kind. Like, he can throw a football. Kind of.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: The most frightening thing I could think of was “maybe Minnesota will be starting a freshman.”
When they play Michigan: Booooooooring. But in a good way.
Next game: vs. San Jose State, 4:00 p.m. Saturday
[After the jump: OH MAH GAWD IS THAT MILEY'S MUSIC???]