mesmerism! presidential assassinations! circuses on fire!
State College, PA
|WHEN||5 PM Eastern
October 12th, 2013
|THE LINE||M –2.5|
|WEATHER||partly cloudy, mid 60s dropping to 50s, 10% chance of rain|
I ADMIT IT, AND I'D DO IT AGAIN, SEE? YEAH, SEE?
Penn State enters their game against Michigan reeling after their first-ever loss to Indiana, that by a whopping 20 points. While Penn State's attempts to get back into the game created a bit of a point avalanche for the Hoosiers, Indiana racked up almost 500 yards in a decidedly non-fluky victory.
With a 37-34 loss to UCF that wasn't really that close also in the rear view mirror, Penn State is teetering on the brink of a sanctions-imposed abyss. A win against Michigan forestalls that for a while yet. A home loss to go 3-3 with two gimmies and spirits will deflate.
Run Offense vs Penn State
Glenn Carson tackles will hit double digits
Penn State's rushing defense has been schizophrenic. They've obliterated Eastern Michigan and Kent State. Those teams are really terrible at offense, sure. Syracuse is actually decent-ish and Penn State held them under a hundred yards; their main backs combined to acquire 3.5 yards an attempt on 28 carries.
In their other two games they've been shredded.
- UCF got two runs of 40+ yards and averaged 6.7 yards an attempt, quarterbacks excluded.
- Indiana was a bit less prolific but also ripped off a 40-yarder and averaged 5.2 a pop, team and QB rushes excluded.
Ace hopped on Google Talk to describe with wonder IU's backbreaking 75-yard touchdown drive to go up 28-17, because it was all rushes and screens. Vintage Penn State defense this isn't.
Sanctions have started to bite heavily, especially in the linebacker corps, where Nyeem Wartman and Ben Kline have been knocked out of the lineup and Mike Hull has been playing hurt, visibly. He missed EMU and Kent State and has limped through the last couple games. That leaves senior returning starter Glenn Carson, a fringe NFL prospect, as the only fully healthy starter. Hull's making do at one spot and 5'10" converted safety Stephen Obeng-Agyapong is operating as a permanent nickelback at the other. Against Indiana, PSU used Carson and Hull as the ILBs; against Michigan they'll have to hope all three guys can read and react in the box, because if you think Michigan sees 5'10" linebacker and 250 pound SDE and isn't going to manball faces you've got another thing coming.
Given Michigan's success at reducing turnovers with a grinding style, expect them to continue that until Penn State proves they can stop it—and I mean stop it, not just reduce it to 3 or 4 yards. This is actually a situation in which you may be able to "wear down the opponent," because the opponent is operating with 61 scholarship players. Penn State has a tough task against tackle over: shift under and Lewan's blowing your DE off the ball. Shift over and you're asking a lot of Obeng-Agyapong.
The cat-and-mouse game will play a large role in success here, as Michigan's overload is susceptible to a similar overload from Penn State and counters were limited and not particularly effective against Minnesota. They had a couple of weakside isos and one honest-to-God counter; only one of those plays was particularly successful.
With Fitzgerald Toussaint obviously instructed to get upfield fast and hard on threat of pudding bath, Michigan will grind out another low-TFL, low-YPA, lots of third-and-short running performance, leaving big plays to relatively infrequent passes.
Key Matchup: Kerridge, Butt, and Kalis/Bryant against Penn State linebackers. Yeah, I'm taking it for granted that the Red Sea will part on these power plays, whether it's by playing straight up for Lewan adjusting to slant games PSU comes up with. That'll leave the lead block convoy against PSU's hallowed but flagging LB corps.
[Hit THE JUMP for Come to Penn Shhhhhhtate!]
Today's recruiting roundup is a bit short and punchy since the MGoCar departs for Penn State early this afternoon. Also, there's just not a lot to talk about right now.
Noah Furbush Is Rather Tough
Self-reminder: Find a new stock picture of Noah Furbush.
Noah Furbush has racked up some pretty impressive tackling numbers this season, and he's done so while playing through a broken wrist. How did that happen? Well... he's not entirely sure, per Scout's Kyle Bogenschutz ($):
In true tough guy fashion, Furbush doesn’t even remember how he broke the bone.
“It happened a few months ago, I think during basketball maybe,” Furbush said. “I’m not even 100-percent sure when but we got it diagnosed after the second scrimmage and I’ve been easing up on it since.”
"Negatives: use of hands, ability to feel pain."
Talk About The Hand
Jabrill Peppers discusses his thoughts on Da'Shawn Hand in his latest blog for USA Today:
OK I know you guys want to know about me trying to bring my boy D Hand (DaShawn Hand) over to Michigan with me, and I'm still feeling really good about doing that.
His announcement date is Nov. 14 and it's getting closer and closer. I feel like we've got the upper hand because he visited us during the Notre Dame game and that was the perfect game for him to be at. The atmosphere was crazy and we got the win.
I hit him up every once in a while to see how he's doing so I know he's doing his thing in his last year like me. I'm feeling like we'll probably be doing our thing on the field together next year too.
But, at the end of the day, that's my dude; wherever he goes he's got a fan in me.
Over at Rivals, Mike Farrell broke the five-stars into high-, medium-, and low-risk categories based on their skill set and how likely they are to hit their potential at the next level. The first two players in the coveted low-risk category are, you guessed it, Jabrill Peppers and Da'Shawn Hand ($):
DE Da'Shawn Hand: Hand is an elite pass rusher with great balance and agility and an amazing work ethic. While he's also a guy who could stand up or play down like Carter, he's not a high-risk guy because he can do it all and could even hold his own inside if needed.
DB Jabrill Peppers: Peppers could play cornerback or safety in college, and he will be successful at either. Heck, he could even play running back, although that would make his risk factor much higher. It's hard to see him failing on defense.
We'll take both, please.
[Hit THE JUMP for a few quick-hitting recruiting notes, including high early interest from the son of the former heavyweight champion of the world.]
This is the first 5-0 when I've ever felt like "I'm pretty happy hoops/hockey season is starting." Part of that is me being a worry wart about Gardner vs. Road Performances (scroll down). Part of it is the basketball team practice reports are a ticker tape of "youguysyouguysyouguysyouguys!" The last of it is something happened last night that didn't get the proper treatment it deserves. Let me rectify that now.
We Beat Beantown Muppets
And you can't have one without the other...
National title contender Boston College came to Yost last night for the hockey season opener and Michigan beat them 3-1. Washes away last year? Not at all. Changes the likelihood of coming out of a brutal non-conference schedule with enough tournament credentials to make up for a relatively eh Big Ten? Definitely. From people who've gotten to see it I'm hearing Compher is something between a second Copp and a god. Next step is revenge on R.I.T.
HTTVHoops/Hockey contributor MGoBlueline is probably running around in circles after last night. BEFORE last night however they dropped an exhibition 2-1 to Waterloo and that was harrowing.
His response was to experiment with Corsi, a stat named for the guy who came up with it that measures the carry of play by tapping blocked shots and misses as well as shots on goal. It's a think brought up a lot in games Waterloo and every Red Wings loss from 1995-2012, where one team carried the play for two periods and probably earned a draw on the other, but were done in by more than just bad puck. You can make it a % too to come away with an idea of defensive performance:
Theory: fewer pucks end up on goal if the defense is getting in their way.
Weeklies. Best and Worst by bronxblue was effusive in its praise after two weeks and a bye of things to be mad about. At first I didn't get the part about Mitch Leidner being mini-Tebow, but now that I've seen the broadcast oh man: my Sparty brother isn't an RCMB'er but even he was like "wow these announcers just hate your guys." Inside the Box Score by ST3 had about 12 Blues Brothers/Belushi shirts that might have been better than my PSU excuses one. LSAClassOf2000 is just trolling Purdue now. Turnover Analysis says not turning it over=good. Jonvalk went there with the weekly wallpaper, is probably going there for it. Program.
Etc. Bill an I agree: Ohio State and Northwestern only made each other look terrifying.
[Jump: Best of the Board, Zen]
|Road Gardner has been rough Gardner. [Fuller]|
I'm putting this here because it's been brought up a few times on the board and the discussion was getting too long for dear diary. Gardner's (admittedly limited) stats in road games are not great:
We're really just going on three starts plus spot duty. But later today and tomorrow you'll see some Penn State preview posts that claim the depleted Lions are more like their basketball and hockey squads than the typical PSU outfit, so let me be on record that Michigan in that stadium is not a great matchup given Gardner's season so far and his history in away games. In fact I've got a UFR database open right now so let's show that by yards per play on called passes (includes scrambles/sacks):
|2010-'11||9.85 (BG, Minn, Pur)||6.75 (Ill, MSU, NW)|
|2012||9.78 (Iowa, NW)||7.35 (Minn, OSU)|
|2013||9.34 (CMU, ND, Akron, Minn)||4.06 (UConn)|
Before you say "why is his sophomore year…?" there aren't very many attempts there so the weight is mostly on the 10 starts this and last season. That seems pretty stark. The UFR charting bears this out.
Devin in Blue Chart:
Devin in White Chart:
Forever in Blue Jeans Chart:
|Money||talks||sing, dance, walk|
|Honey||is sweet||compare to baby's treat.|
UConn was an all-time low in YPP but part of a trend. The short history of Devin road games read:
- Pre-2012: 3 inaccurate balls, 2 CA+ for 20-yard gains, a PA hitch for 2 yards against MSU and the Yakety sax, and a 4-yd scramble on a Denard Jet.
- Minnesota 2012: Took most of 1st half to warm up, got bailed out a lot by WRs
- OSU 2012: Sacked a few times and lots of late IN's from unset throws out of the pocket.
- UConn 2013: Terrible horrible no good very bad day.
It's a small sample size with little good to recommend it. PSU's defensive backs, meanwhile, are kind of like Michigan in 2010 in that they have one safety-corner hybrid they trust and three they don't. However they've been pretty game so far; the two offenses that torched them were Indiana's Air Raid-like thing that is pretty respectable, and getting Bortles'd. Including their five sacks they're giving up just 5.81 YPA. They're about 40th in every category; 29th in passer rating. That doesn't seem so hard until you consider Gardner's opponents to date are 62nd (ND), 63rd (UConn), 93rd (Minnesota), 108th (CMU), and 117th (Akron). You can save discussion until Brian gets to this part of the preview but count me as nervous here.
Classy teams don't put their names on jerseys or scoreboard bars.
Also I promised Brian the puns would only last as long as I can think of them. Still thinking of them.
How this works again:
- I put up a winnable prize that consists of a desirable good with a headline that is very punny.
- Almost nobody reads the writeup and just posts their scores.
The three guys who did read the writeup holler at people who don't post the final scores of this weekend's designated game (football or hoops, depending on the season), and put it in the comments like so:
[Michigan Score]-[Opponent Score]. First person to post a particular score has it.
- If you got it right, we contact you. If not, go to (5)
- The desirable good arrives at the address you give us.
- Non-winners can acquire the same desirable good by trading currency for it.
Last Week's Game:
A good ol'fashioned 42-13 jug entry won by JAG333. Eleventh hit for "JAG333" on google:
On the road again. I can't wait to get back on the road again. Least it's places that we nearly always win.
And the Prize:
But no, seriously, the guy who invented the slinky would have gone to space if he cared to. Oh and the Apollo astronauts were PAID!
If you can read this you don’t need glasses:
One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (for my ease I prefer if you don't post it as a reply to another person's score--if you do it won't help or hurt you). Deadline for entries is 24 hours before the start of the game (since I won't have time to pull them on gamedays). Those caught changing their scores after the game has started will be disqualified for life. MGoEmployees and Moderators--anyone else with moderator privileges--are exempt from winning because you could change your timestamp. If you choose the score that Brian published in the official preview and it actually ends up the final score, well, that would be pretty amazing because Brian picks scores like 29-11 all the time. We did not invent the algorithm. The algorithm consistently finds Jesus. The algorithm killed Jeeves. The algorithm is just a regional rivalry. The algorithm is banned in China. The algorithm is from Jersey, and would have gone to Penn State except for the NCAA's bowl ban. The algorithm constantly finds Jesus. This is not the algorithm. This is close.
Penn State's defense let this happen. Against Indiana. Penn State's defense of yore is dead.
Penn State lost to Indiana 44-24 last weekend despite holding a 14-13 lead early in the third quarter. It was IU's first-ever win over PSU. Both teams left a lot of points on the board. Indiana had a failed 4th-and-3 in the red zone and settled for two field goals from inside PSU's ten-yard line in the first half; Penn State's first two drives ended with a failed 4th-and-5 on the IU 26 and another turnover on downs when their long snapper sailed one on a field goal attempt, losing 31(!) yards in the process. The final score, however, seems fitting to me after watching the tape—Indiana controlled most of the game and would've completely dominated if not for PSU WR Allen Robinson, who was easily the best player on the field and, if not for Taylor Lewan, would probably take that honor this weekend, as well.
Thanks to some creative editing by the BTN (I taped the replay when it was apparent nobody was uploading a torrent of this game), the charting is not comprehensive even before I stopped after Indiana took a 42-17 fourth-quarter lead; a few drives from the first quarter were cut out, as were a couple late drives. A sanity check with the box score and PSU blogs gives me the impression that I saw more than enough from this game, though, to get an accurate idea of what was going on.
[On to the breakdown after THE JUMP.]