We couldn't have picked a better first game to scout for this year's Future Blue Originals. Avon, led by Michigan QB commit Brandon Peters, went toe-to-toe with defending state champs Ben Davis, which featured Michigan ATH commit Chris Evans. Ben Davis came away with a 49-42 win after an eye-opening Evans touchdown and a long pick-six when Peters got drilled during the release.
Peters essentially was the Avon offense, completing 26 of 44 attempts for 381 yards (8.7 YPA) and four passing touchdowns while adding another score and a handful of decent scrambles on the ground; as you'll see, neither of his interceptions were his fault. Evans had a tough time finding room in the running game, gaining 36 yards on 17 carries, but he showed all you'd want to see from a future slot receiver on his late 50-yard touchdown.
[Hit THE JUMP for extensive video and scouting on Peters, Evans, and an Avon linebacker who caught my eye.]
|STRONG DE||Yr.||NOSE TACKLE||Yr.||3-TECH||Yr.||WEAK DE||Yr.|
|Chris Wormley||Jr.*||Ryan Glasgow||Jr.*||Willie Henry||Jr.*||Mario Ojemudia||Sr.|
|Taco Charlton||Jr.||Maurice Hurst||So.*||Matt Godin||Jr.*||Lawrence Marshall||Fr.*|
|Tom Strobel||Jr.*||Bryan Mone||So.||Jabrill Peppers||Fr.*||Royce Jenkins-Stone||Sr.|
Depth chart shows everybody just because.
The loss of Bryan Mone to injury hurts a depth chart that was looking quite excellent. They've still got a very solid two deep featuring two returning starters, the breakout guy from the spring game, and Matt Godin. With limited exceptions, those two starters were very good a year ago until Willie Henry got laid up with injury; this year they could be excellent.
The one catch here is because of Mone's absence. Without him, Michigan does not have a planetoid-style DT. Henry is a big dude but more of an explodes-in-either-direction kind of a guy; everyone else is decidedly a one-gap style of player. Michigan is going to have to play a lot of games when the backups are in, and might have some issues holding up against power that is powerful.
NOSE TACKLE: THAT'S SIR GLASGOW TO YOU
Glasgow, right, exceeded all expectation [Bryan Fuller]
This got a 3 last year despite the fact that a walk-on had apparently locked the job down; that might have been pessimistic. By midseason RYAN GLASGOW had been awarded the Order Of St. Kovacs, indicating that his former walk-on status should no longer factor into any projections of his ability. Hell, by game two I was proclaiming him a major factor in Notre Dame's 53 yards rushing:
Glasgow was a penetrating, disruptive presence. Here he rips to the hole on a goal line play and just about gets a TFL:
That deserved better than a 1.5 yard gain after he nearly brought the back down in the backfield. Here he slants to the backfield effectively, forcing the back into traffic:Here he's got a full on double the whole play and puts it in the backfield, forcing a cutback.
Watching Glasgow clips from last year, his ability to zip through a gap and then actually do something jumps out. He's at his best when he's popping up in an unexpected gap.
A lot of nose tackles can get into that gap when the center goes to the second level without a bump; not many get all the way around the guard to make the tackle themselves.
Glasgow was also good at standing up single blocks. Sometimes it was at the line; sometimes he got a yard or two of depth to prevent cutbacks. He was adept at swatting his way through attempted momentary combos:
Consistently disruptive and hard to keep blocked, Glasgow was probably the most important part of Michigan's excellent run defense a year ago. I know the above clip is Indiana and thus prone to dismissal, but remember that Tevin Coleman guy? Yeah, Indiana could run the ball a bit last year.
One thing Glasgow is not is a pure 3-4 nose tackle. When opponents doubled him, one of two things generally happened: 1) he ripped one guy away and shot through a gap because it wasn't an extended double or 2) they both latched on and got motion on him.
Asking him to play a zero tech isn't going to go so well. Not many teams Michigan faced were able to take advantage of the fact Glasgow isn't a 330 pound man-mountain, but the two that did were kind of important: MSU and OSU. Glasgow in fact got yanked from big chunks of the MSU game because he just could not hold up against the Spartans mean and very good interior OL.
The other main issue with Glasgow's game seems fixable and was partially scheme-based anyway: pass rush. A lot of teams will leave their nose tackle on screen duty. He'll occupy a blocker or two with a token rush that keeps him near the line of scrimmage in case it's a trap. Glasgow got some of that duty a year ago. He also had a bunch of plays on which he attempted to get to the QB, and the results there weren't great. Glasgow wasn't so much as credited with half a sack last year. I know he got at least one because he had a sack/strip/recovery against Indiana (Michigan hasn't issued sacks for forced fumbles for a couple years now); one is still not many. Literally.
Given Glasgow's ability to warp past OL the lack of pass rush is a bit of a puzzle; that has undoubtedly been an offseason focus for him. If the 2015 edition of Ryan Glasgow can add a reasonable amount of that to his repertoire he'll go from Michigan fan's best-kept secret to a man of wider renown.
[After THE JUMP: Ogre, take two]
Each drafter was asked to defend his team and say something nice and something mean about each of the others. Your candidates:
THE Acehio State
There are consequences to such behaviors [original photo courtesy of Ace's new employers at Eleven Warriors]
OFFENSE: QB Jake Rudock (U-M), RB Josh Ferguson (IL), OW Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), H-back Kyle Carter (PSU), TE Adam Breneman (PSU), LT Jack Conklin (MSU), RT Kodi Kieler (MSU), LG Billy Price (OSU), RG Kyle Kalis (U-M), OC Dan Voltz (UW)
DEFENSE: WDE Joey Bosa (OSU), SDE Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), DT Willie Henry (U-M), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), MLB Riley Bullough (MSU), OLB Joshua Perry (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU), CB Darius Hillary (UW), HSP Sean Davis (MD), S Tyvis Powell (OSU), S RJ Williamson (MSU)
SPECIAL TEAMS: K Paul Griggs (PU), P Cameron Johnston (OSU), KR Josh Ferguson (IL), PR Braxton Miller (OSU)
Ace: My defensive front is downright terrifying. The best player in the draft, at a position of relative weakness in the conference, dropped to me at #3. That front four (plus Darron Lee) would be very stout against the run and produce a fearsome pass rush more than capable of covering for any perceived weakness in the secondary—and my secondary is pretty decent with a nice ceiling if RJ Williamson takes a step forward this year. My linebackers will clean up anything that somehow manages to get past the line, the corners are good, and Tyvis Powell is a steadying presence in the back.
The criticisms of my backfield are legitimate, though Ferguson's fumbling is getting too much attention (hi, Seth); he's the best weapon out of the backfield in the conference, which is key given the dearth of receiving talent this year, and he's also an explosive runner with good patience and vision—he's much more than just a receiving threat. Rudock won't set the world on fire but he's got the best group of pass-catchers to work with out of any of our teams, he'll take care of the ball, and I'm actually more confident he'll have a strong season this year than Hackenberg. My line features a potential top-ten pick at left tackle, a good Wisconsin center, two guards poised for major breakout years, and a right tackle who didn't give up a sack and blocked the run well last year.
What I believe sets my team apart, aside from the defensive line, is the Braxton Miller pick. Not only does he provide an explosive threat from the slot, he's backfield insurance for both Rudock and Ferguson—Ohio State is going to move him all over the field this year (Miller: "It's like playing a video game") and my offense would utilize him in similar fashion. I'm still shocked he went after Cardale Jones, who provides nothing if he doesn't win the starting job.
[After the jump: you get to vote on this]
back back back back not back (but there's another guy also back) [Bryan Fuller]
|Mason Cole||So.||Ben Braden||Jr.*||Graham Glasgow||Sr.*||Kyle Kalis||Jr.*||Erik Magnuson||Jr.*|
|Logan Tuley-Tillman||So.*||David Dawson||So.*||Patrick Kugler||So.*||Blake Bars||Jr.*||Juwann Bushell-Beatty||Fr.*|
It got better. It really did. The OL nadir is in the past. We can come out of the bunker and rebuild society now.
By any reasonable metric it in fact got a lot better. Michigan's YPC leapt 1.3 yards, going from 11th in a 12-team league to 8th in a 14-team one. If you only look at Big Ten stats Michigan is still 8th, and that's in the division that had the MSU, OSU, and PSU defenses. Sacks allowed had a near-identical improvement, going from barely better than Purdue to a spot in the respectable midsection of the conference. Advanced stats saw something similar. Michigan finished 50th in adjusted line yards*, 32nd in power success rate, and 72nd in adjusted sack rate. And that's with the running backs going the wrong direction constantly.
None of these numbers stand out, but neither do they linger in the seedy parts of the list next to Temple and Penn State and Louisiana-Monroe. They were average-ish. Most of the time they felt average-ish.
That's not a bad place to be with zero seniors and just two upperclassmen. While the unexpected departure of Jack Miller puts a small dent in the front's depth, his likely replacement, Erik Magnuson, is a redshirt junior who came in as a touted recruit and has a season's worth of starts to his name already. If you're willing to fudge a bit, Michigan has five starters back from that okay line. They've replaced Brady Hoke with Jim Harbaugh and Darrell Funk with Tim Drevno.
Could they be… good?
*[A stat that weighs the first few yards you get heavily and discounts long runs in an attempt to get a feel for how the line is doing.]
Cole coped [Eric Upchurch]
Rating: 3 of 5
Last year I gave this a 1 because Michigan was staring down a starting lineup consisting of a true freshman and a third-year guy who didn't even get a sniff during the chaos of 2013. They seemed to acquire these positions almost by default since the only other tackles on the roster were freshmen (redshirt or true) regarded as huge projects. Or they were starting at guard.
The 2014 edition of this post took a quick gander at what happened when football teams started freshman tackles. It was almost universally ugly. The best case scenario was Ole Miss, which deployed ultra-blue-chip Laremy Tunsil as a true freshman and was middling in both YPC and sacks allowed. All others trundled their way to seasons that were more or less disastrous.
Michigan was not disastrous last year. In what is certainly a first for offensive line projections in recent history, that prediction was pessimistic. MASON COLE, the true freshman, just about hit the top end of reasonable projections, those being:
The occasional freshman tackle can cope. I think Cole is one of those guys. But is he going to blow a guy off the ball and provide a big ol' lane at 292 pounds? Probably not. Our hope here is that Cole is a solid, agile pass protector in year one who is a meh run blocker.
Mason Cole coped. This is what that looks like in the run game according to UFR:
|App St||9.5||2||7.5||A fine debut|
|Notre Dame||4||2||2||Didn't seem overwhelmed at all.|
|Miami||8||5||3||Okay; also had one very bad pass pro.|
|Utah||3||2.5||0.5||Nice seal block ignored.|
|Rutgers||5||5||0||I'll take it.|
|Penn State||1.5||5||-3.5||Hull and Zettel bad matchup.|
|Minnesota||4.5||2.5||2||Overpowered a little but still okay day.|
|Indiana||3||0.5||2.5||Didn't mess anything up.|
It was rougher in pass protection, where I have had him for 16 protection minuses in 8 games. Those are worth about half a QB pressure/sack each. Otherwise things were pretty okay against non-elite defenses. Cole's debut season was… eh.
When it didn't go well, the usual reason was that Cole got blown backwards because he was a true freshman. These were the kind of things that were happening against Zettel and company:
This was a game in which Cole's inexperience and lack of big skrongness really hurt. Here Butt gets an excellent shoulder spear on Zettel, knocking him off balance. This should provide ample opportunity for Cole to step around and wall Zettel off, creating a crease Smith will hit trying to beat a safety for a big gainer. Instead Zettel comprehensively wins:
Cole got whipped on the Norfleet catch that put Michigan in position for the winning field goal; Michigan was fortunate that ball went to the WR instead of getting knocked anywhere.
Ennui prevented me from charting him against Joey Bosa, but I've gone back and rewatched the OSU game. Cole was okay. By the second half of The Game Ohio State decided that they should either blitz outside of Bosa and send him against the interior line (which only kind of worked) or have him go at Ben Braden (which very much worked). Don't get me wrong, Cole did get beat. It was a struggle; it was not one in which he was completely overwhelmed.
All of that is terrific for a true freshman. Cole grabbed the job, held the job all season, and played reasonably well. There has been not a whisper that he would go anywhere except for a blip during spring practice when he was playing center, that because Glasgow was suspended and Michigan was figuring out if he could play there a la Barrett Jones. All practice reports have held that he is a sure thing, greatly improved, etc. 247 heard this from multiple people in a 24-hour window:
Mason Cole has unsurprisingly established himself as a rock at the left tackle spot, and is primed to be the next great four-year starter to play the position.
Cole's added 13 pounds and should make a major leap in year two, what with the rare true-freshman-to-true-sophomore OL transition coupled with the general HARBAUGH.
That will probably still leave him short of dominant. Michigan's most recent really good left tackle, Taylor Lewan, took off in his third year. In year two Cole should slash the protection issues considerably and do okay against the better defensive ends in the league. A year like early Graham Glasgow—reliable, somewhat short on raw power—would set Cole up to be excellent as an upperclassman.
[After THE JUMP: four-ish additional returning starters who happen to be upperclassmen already]
How do you feel about your unit here going into the first game?
“You know, the thing that’s unique about the kicking game is the first time you really test it is the game, and we don’t have preseason games in college. So, I feel great about the practices we’ve had so far. We get 29 of them. We’ve had whatever, however many we’ve been allotted. The head coach has given us incredible meeting time, practice time, and availability and so to this point I like the focus of our players and what we’ve done and look forward to the contest, but you get to see what you’ve got when you play. It’s very hard to simulate a kickoff or a punt in practice and the intensity of the game.”
Who’s leading at the kicker spot?
“Well, you know, we’ve got three. This competition is going to go all the way up until pregame. And there’s really no need to pick one at this point because there’s none of them that have been in a game. Coach Harbaugh really believes in competitive excellence at every position, and those guys are duking it out. They’ve been taking- they took equal turns today in team. Each of them got four kicks. They’ve taken equal turns pretty much through camp.”
Who are the guys working there?
“Kyle Seychel and Kenny Allen and Andrew David- you know, the new guy, the freshman. They’ve done a nice job. Once again, we get the opportunity to practice 29 times so we’re going to take that opportunity. There’s not an established starter or whatever there, so…”
What about at punter?
“Well, at punter, Kenny Allen and Blake O’Neill are both punting. They will both punt, okay? They will both punt for Michigan this year. Blake has some skills Kenny doesn’t have, [and] Kenny has some skills Blake doesn’t have. And we’re a pro-style team on offense, defense, and kicking game, and Blake came here to want to be a pro in one year, and Kenny has really embraced being accurate. So here’s the thing: they’re both good. Kenny’s improved a lot. Blake adds some nice depth there, and they’ll both play. Don’t know how often you see a two-punter system, but we got one.”
[After THE JUMP: Kick and punt returners, and a personal connection]
[I jumped in mid-answer]
“We’ve got two coaches who love to hit. With coach Drevno the O-line is real tough this year. On the D-line we've had a lot of guys step up and play real hard, so it’s been a real hard-hitting camp.”
Talk about yourself and where you’ve made progress since the end of last season.
“I think Coach Mattison has helped me with my technique a lot and also coach [Will] Carr has helped me and Mo [Hurst] with our technique a lot. He's helped us out a lot. As far as technique, I feel like our effort has always been there but we haven't always been the sharpest technique-wise, but I think that’s been a lot better since last year.”
What makes coach Mattison such a good coach?
“I think it’s experience of coaching. He’s coached every type of line.”
And guys like Ray Lewis.
“Yeah, he’s coached every type of guy. He knows how to get to it with coaching. He’s not going to coach everyone the same. He knows how to push buttons in the right way, and he has really constructive criticism and I think that’s what makes him a good coach.”
Last year you did have a scholarship. Are you still technically a walk-on? Have you heard anything about a scholarship?
“No, I actually got one last year after the season.”
[After THE JUMP: Chesson, Rudock, and Bolden]