We had a survey, 3,556 people responded to it. We learned some things about them:
1. They only get to a few games
The average was two a year but the split is more like 26% go to no games, 36% get to one, and 38% get to more than one.
2. Most don't have season tickets
Four in five (79%) responders don't. Also, when these were run against the previous question season, ticket holders averaged 5.05 games a year, while non-season ticket holders went to 1.11 per year. Season ticket holders were then asked if they would have renewed if Michigan had kept Hoke. Most (68 percent) would but even 32 percent "no" is ominous:
3. There's a clear preference for ADs
On overwhelming majority (almost 90%) of respondents gave Brandon a 1 or a 2. Conversely, Hackett cleaned up; among Michigan fans just 17 people who are impossible to please out of 3400 is some kind of magic. Brian demanded I combine these in a bar graph.
Ace: "That is beautiful."
Brian: "See? Bar graphs!"
Harbaugh has some catching up to do on his boss, at a still really positive approval rating of 4.27 out of 5. Then again Hackett has already reeled in a 5-star while I guess Harbaugh has yet to do so.
5. As for his predecessor
6. They'll pay more for better opponents, but not too much.
What they have now is about what the market wants to bear.
7. What they want to wear
Either the readership didn't understand that Underground Printing is our t-shirt guys and this would essentially mean MGoBlog gets to design all the uniforms, or they understood too well. Anyway UGP barely beat Under Armour, probably because they're the only company other than Nike that spells their name right.
8. Who they'd like to play
You're going to have to click this one I think:
Notre Dame is the obvious one, and the next-most popular was Harbaugh taking a shot at his old team. Stanford makes a lot of sense in fan type, location worth visiting, old history, and a team we haven't seen much of. LSU would be great too though it probably will be less fun (and less easy) once Les and Cam are out of there. The Pac and SEC were easily the most desirable conferences. A breakdown:
|ACC (no ND)||1312|
The games already scheduled weren't included, otherwise I'm sure the interest in Texas and Oklahoma would shoot the Big XII back up to at least ACC levels, while Washington and Colorado could put the Pac 12 on equal footing with the SEC.
Craig Ross has deigned to grace us with his presence as the season approaches, so we're back at it on WTKA. This week:
- Craig demonstrates the art of marketing.
- Jeremy Clark, corner?
- The Peppers disposition.
- Linebackers. I did not break Desmond Morgan's hand as part of a nefarious ploy to have him available for year one of Harbaugh.
- DE/Buck/3-4/4-3 complaining!
- Harbaugh on his best behavior… for now.
Toot toot, all aboard the submarine!
THE USUAL LINKS
Hello. This is an excerpt from "ENDZONE: The Rise, Fall, And Return of Michigan Football" that John Bacon allowed us to run if I would once more refer to the book by its actual name instead of "Brandon's Lasting Lessons." I have now discharged that obligation.
We pick up the story the day after the Minnesota game. Shane Morris has been hit on the head, Devin Gardner lost his helmet and Morris re-entered, and the world waits for an explanation of what's going on…
At 11 a.m. Sunday, after every football game, the medical staff completes its routine postgame interactions with the coaching staff, including Brady Hoke, to apprise them of the status of all the players—something I’ve witnessed dozens of times. In addition, head trainer Paul Schmidt talked with Hoke once on Saturday, three times on Sunday, and once on Monday, giving him the complete information Dr. Kutcher and the staff had gathered on Shane Morris’s condition at each stage.
In short, there was no lack of communication between the medical staff and the coaching staff—nor within the medical staff itself, a group I’ve seen exhibit mutual respect, personally and professionally.
The Big Ten also called Michigan Sunday morning to let the coaching staff know the referee who had told Hoke, after Devin Gardner’s helmet had popped off, that calling a time-out would not allow him to put Gardner back on the field was, in fact, incorrect, and Hoke was right. It’s not that often the Big Ten office admits it was wrong, but they told the staff, not the media, so no one outside Schembechler Hall knew about it.
Finally sensing that a national story was rising around them, the department sent out a press release from Brady Hoke Sunday evening. It said, in part, “. . . Shane Morris was removed from yesterday’s game against Minnesota after further aggravating an injury to his leg that he sustained earlier in the contest . . . The University of Michigan has a distinguished group of Certified Athletic Trainers and team physicians who are responsible for determining whether or not a player is physically able to play. Our coaches have no influence or authority to make determinations if or when an injured player returns to competition . . .”
The release addressed some important points—that Morris had been pulled for his ankle, not the hit to his helmet, and that the coaches have no authority over the medical staff—but failed to answer the most pressing question: Did Morris have a concussion or not? If he did, why did he go back in the game?
Needless to say, instead of bringing closure to the story, this half-baked attempt would only raise more questions.
To withstand these slings and arrows, Brandon needed the Michigan family to band together like never before: the students, the alumni, the fans, faculty and lettermen, not to mention his own staff. But when he looked up, he found the family had already scattered. They had resigned, they’d been fired, they’d been angered, they’d been estranged. Some had simply become fed up with the whole thing, and walked away from something they thought they would love their whole lives.
Brandon would be on his own.
When the athletic director, his leadership team, his coaches, and the players woke up Monday morning, they found a pile of bad news on their doorstep. The football team was off to a disastrous 2–3 start. The department was still getting lambasted for the Cokes-for-tickets “retail activation,” and the stadium was showing large bands of empty seats—and that was all topped by the op-ed headline in the Michigan Daily: “Brady Hoke Must Be Fired.”
[After THE JUMP: nothing good happens in a 17 hour meeting]
Two Detroit King prospects who once looked long gone are taking a hard look at Michigan. The turnaround with four-star WR Donnie Corley has been dramatic. Corley told The Wolverine's Brandon Brown this week that two recent unofficials—and a bit of apparel news—have really helped Michigan's cause ($):
"Michigan is doing great [with me]. They got that Jordan thing, that was really sweet," Corley said through a big grin. "That's definitely big. That would be sweet, with Jordan cleats, and the shoes and everything. It's a big deal. They are doing real good right now."
Corley added his mom "loved everything about the visit" when they were in town for the BBQ and they also came away with a lot of helpful answers when they took an academics-centric visit. While it's early yet to say if Michigan has caught up to their two chief rivals in Corley's recruitment, they've made a ton of recent progress.
That could help them reel in four-star King CB Lavert Hill. The Penn State commit told TMI's Josh Newkirk his relationship with Michigan is "developing" and mentioned a desire to play college ball with Corley ($):
“Me and Donnie would like to play with each other in college,” Hill said of Corley. “Me and him talk about it mostly everyday.”
Package deals are fickle beasts, of course, but it's worth noting Corley isn't taking a hard look at Penn State. Michigan State is also pushing hard for the pair, but Hill seems more likely to end up in Ann Arbor, especially with his brother Delano Hill in line for major playing time this year.
Another in-stater to keep an eye on: four-star Farmington Hills Harrison DE Khalid Kareem, who told Brown that "Michigan is still in a lot of contact" with him ($). While his only planned official at the moment is to Alabama, the school he committed to over M in a very tight race, he's considering using another to see Ann Arbor again.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]
Previously: Last year's profiles, S Tyree Kinnel, CB Keith Washington, DE Shelton Johnson, DE Reuben Jones, OL Nolan Ulizio, OL Grant Newsome, OL Jon Runyan Jr., TE Tyrone Wheatley Jr., WR Brian Cole, WR Grant Perry, RB Karan Higdon, QB Zach Gentry.
|Bloomfield Hills, MI – 6'1", 200|
||Scout||4*, #185 overall
|Rivals||4*, NR overall
#11 Pro QB, #1 MI
|ESPN||4*, NR overall
#16 Pro QB, #4 MI
|24/7||3*, NR overall
#14 Pro QB, #4 MI
|Other Suitors||Pitt, Wake Forest|
|Previously On MGoBlog||Hello post from Ace. Ace scouts Brother Rice vs De La Salle.|
|Notes||HS teammate of Grant Perry. Twitter.|
This doubles as a supplementary Grant Perry highlight reel as well. Scouting video from BR vs DLS:
Alex Malzone is the other half of the passing combination that led Brother Rice to the state championship and ensconced Grant Perry into the MHSAA record books; he was the more highly touted bit. He hit a ton of camps and popped up to a solid four star on all the sites (24/7 later dropped him to a three star) despite not having any whiz-bang physical traits.
You probably know where this is going already: heady, polished, etc. You are correct. When Ace and Dave scouted Malzone against De La Salle they came back with the video above and impressions beyond the fact that Malzone was zinging highly accurate balls all night:
The film is impressive enough; what it doesn't show is how much Malzone is in command of the offense. He directed an attack that often went no-huddle, made protection and route checks that I could hear all the way from the top rows of the bleachers, and most importantly, made the correct pre-snap reads. Check out the 1:13 mark, when he sees De La Salle lining up to blitz, changes the protection and has his running back shift sides—the RB is in perfect position to pick up a blitzer and Malzone has enough time to fire off a slant to Perry for a first down.
Scouting reports continually hone in on Malzone's consistency, command, and timing.
- Allen Trieu, Scout: “…good velocity on his passes, shows excellent timing and is very accurate. … May not have ideal dropback QB height, but is a gamer and a winner.”
- Jordan Palmer, Elite 11 coach: "That guy is sponge. … he’s not necessarily physically big. He doesn’t throw the ball like this guy. He’s not as fast as that guy. But man, is he consistent."
- Barton Simmons, 24/7, comparing Malzone to OSU commit Joe Burrow: "a little bit undersized but has outstanding feet in the pocket and a really live arm. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Burrow but he’s the more college ready player right now."
- ESPN: "…marginal athlete for the position. …Really shows good command of the scheme. … Throws a tight, snappy ball. Sticks the ball right on target. … gifted rhythm and timing thrower … Release is quick and over the top. Does show a slight draw back where the bottom point of the ball points backwards as he pulls back to deliver. … ball jumps off his hand."
- Josh Helmholdt, Rivals, after a 7 on 7: "Malzone was in total command … The ball did not seem to come off his hand with as much pop as we're used to seeing, yet he still got it there with plenty of velocity and was pinpoint accurate with his throws."
- Helmholdt: "I watched him lead Brother Rice to the state championship and saw his leadership qualities, the intangibles like managing an offense, how he moved the team down the field. … When we saw him at Rivals camps, he was spotting his passes extremely well, throwing guys open instead of just hitting the open guy. Every pass was on the money."
- Jamie Uyeama, 24/7 and SBN: "When Malzone has a clean pocket and is properly balanced, I don’t know if there are too many other quarterbacks his age that can chuck it like him. … can flat out zip the ball and it’s really pretty. He has the arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows and to make all the deep throws imaginable."
These are the things that allowed Malzone to complete 65% of his passes en route to a state title.
[After THE JUMP: some funk in the delivery and spring concerns.]
Once again one of the things that became most apparent while doing Draftageddon was the receiver pool was again pretty crappy. I had a thought to try to use some of the targeting data to see if that was atypical, and found…well I found little but I figured you'd like to see it anyway. See if you can spot anything of interest in here or suggestions for further study.
That link goes back to when this same thing happened in 2012. Our post-draft consensus has usually been fairly accurate for most positions, but we were all over the place with the WRs. Jeremy Gallon was the 9th WR taken and led the conference in Bill Connelly's imperfect RYPR stat, with Abbrederis (3rd), Kenny Bell (7th), Allen Robinson (not drafted) and Roy Roundtree (12th) rounding out the top five. Last year's RYPR leaders were Lippett (our 9th receiver taken), Carroo (not drafted), Devin Smith (6th), Michael Thomas (not drafted) and Mike Dudek (not drafted). Things, e.g. injuries, happened. But we were correct that neither year was very good:
Click to big it make.
I chose yards per target to show this because it removes sacks, throwaways, and interceptions—you know, more quarterback-y things—to get a sense of overall conference receiver play. When you line up former Michigan WRs by YPT it passes a sanity check, e.g. the only listed WR in the NFL draft from the Big Ten was Denard. Last year—and yes a particularly awful year for quarterbacks was part of the story—was back to a low for receivers, and seven guys from that went in the NFL Draft (though the Dolphins are making Lippett a corner and I have no idea what the Texans saw in Mumphery).
The noise increases dramatically when you make these into team stats. Here's the Big Ten from 2005-2014
Quarterback is important, but as national trend data suggested in the first chart, the spread made a big difference, allowing teams with less talent to occupy safeties as well as Wisconsin's running game always has. Note for example that Lloyd Carr's not particularly well-thought-out offense peaked at 8.11 in 2006 with Breaston, Manningham, Arrington, and a healthy junior Chad Henne, a mark that was destroyed by four teams of the Roundtree/Hemingway/Gallon/Funchess era. (Yes the Threetsheridammit year was the worst of all).
Interestingly not all of these years corresponded to the amount of NFL drafted talent. Observe:
|Santonio Holmes (1st)||Ted Ginn (1st)||James Hardy (2nd)||Brian Robiskie (2nd)|
|Brandon Williams (3rd)||Anthony Gonzalez (1st)||Devin Thomas (2nd)||Deon Butler (3rd)|
|Jason Avant (4th)||Roy Hall (5th)||Mario Manningham (3rd)||Derrick Williams (3rd)|
|Michael Robinson (4th)||Steve Breaston (5th)||Paul Hubbard (6th)||Brian Hartline (4th)|
|Jonathan Orr (6th)||Adrian Arrington (7th)|
|Ethan Kilmer (7th)|
|Arrelious Benn (2nd)||Tandon Doss (4th)||A.J. Jenkins (1st)||Denard Robinson (5th)|
|Eric Decker (3rd)||DeVier Posey (3rd)|
|Keshawn Martin (4th)|
|Nick Toon (4th)|
|B.J. Cunningham (6th)|
|Marvin McNutt (6th)|
|Jeremy Ebert (7th)|
|Junior Hemingway (7th)|
|Allen Robinson (2nd)||Devin Smith (2nd)|
|Cody Latimer (2nd)||Devin Funchess (2nd)|
|Jared Abbrederis (5th)||Keith Mumphery (5th)|
|Quincy Enunwa (6th)||Kenny Bell (5th)|
|Jeremy Gallon (7th)||Stefon Diggs (5th)|
|Tony Lippett (5th)|
|Evan Spencer (6th)|
Obviously it's not just the NFL draft picks moving the needle, but you do see things above, like how the 2011 shot the Big Ten way up in YPT until it graduated, leaving a far less productive generation.
I'm still trying to see if any of these stats can predict individual leaps, which is the real meat.
UPDATE ON THAT:
So far I've taken the top five WRs in the conference by RYPR for each year since 2006 and looked at whether someone like Darboh (69.8 RYPR) or Chesson (22.7 RYPR) ever broke into that group. Some Big Ten players who made a leap from Darboh to pretty good were 2012 Roy Roundtree, 2006 Anthony Gonzalez (OSU), 2008 Jordan Norwood (PSU), and 2014 Tony Lippett (68.4 for MSU in 2013). There were a bunch of younger guys who made a larger freshman-to-sophomore jump, but those are the comps for a guy at Darboh's stage. That Lippett was in there is encouraging since he too emerged from a cratered passing game to the #1 guy.