fair point that
Taken moments after the final person complained about Funchess switching to #1[Upchurch]
The Four Factors*
|Field Position||Bonus Yards||Conversion Rate||Red Zone|
|Michigan||29.0 pts||5.9 yds/play||80%||7.0 pts/trip|
Total domination of a weaker opponent in every category. Michigan’s huge advantage in field position is partially driven by starting a drive with an extra point after Gedeon’s blocked punt return**. But even without that play, it was a large field position advantage, especially considering Michigan didn’t force any turnovers.
The 25% conversion rate allowed is significantly better than any number from last season. Last year’s opener was Michigan’s best game when they allowed CMU 47% conversions. Both bonus yards and bonus yards allowed were better than any numbers posted during the 2013 season.
*A quick refresh:
Field Position is expected points an average team will score given the starting field position over the course of the game. Defensive/special teams touchdowns count as 7 points.
Bonus Yards are any yards gained beyond the first down yardline, a measure of offensive explosiveness. >3 ypp is elite offensively, <2 is elite defensively
Conversion Rate is first downs gains divided by first downs started, a measure of an offense’s ability to move the chains consistently. >80% is elite offensively and <65% is elite defensively.
Red Zone is points per red zone trip. >5.7 is elite offensively and <4.3 is elite defensively. This is the weakest predictor of the four factors.
All factors except field position are only measured on competitive series (all series in the first half and any second half series that starts or ends within 15 points).
**I know some people don’t like that I include return TD’s in this number but I think if you are going to count it if he gets tackled at the 1, it doesn’t make sense to exclude it if he makes it all the way in.
Devin Gardner: +13.3 expected points, +26% win percent added
Derrick Green: +2.9, +4% (+9.3 including second half)
De’Veon Smith: +7.4, +7% (+9.8 including second half)
Devin Funchess: +9.2, +18% on 8 targets
None of these numbers are opponent adjusted yet. De’Veon Smith is the highest non-adjusted total for a Michigan running back since Fitzgerald Toussaint added 9.4 points of value against Purdue in 2011.
[Jump, game chart and such]
Hello again. That was fun. Let’s do it again. Unfortunately, we didn’t learn much this week because everyone played cupcakes, soup cans, and assorted other non-challenging foodstuffs.
About Last Week:
Yep. That’s what you did. (h/t Ace, obviously)
The Road Ahead:
Notre Dame (1-0, 0-0 quasi-ACC)
Last week: Beat Rice (48-17)
Recap: Rice kept it close for a while (it was 14-10 late in the first half), and then it really really wasn’t close. Everett Golson threw for 295 yards at 13.4 YPA and 2 TDs, and ran for three more scores. Rice just wasn’t athletic enough to hang with ND’s playmakers. The Owls did average 8.7 yards per pass, which would have been their third best average last year ago.
But while this was an encouraging debut for the Irish, the hole they’re digging continues to get deeper. Safety Eilar Hardy was suspended in the ongoing EYES ON YOUR OWN PAPER situation, and starting safety Austin Collinsworth sprained an MCL. As a result, Notre Dame’s defensive two-deep now features… you. Congratulations. Suit up. And please do your own homework.
This team is as frightening as:
Michigan should worry about: There’s still a chance Notre Dame un-suspends these players, which will be in no way related to the fact that they are playing Michigan this week.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Even if they DO reinstate these guys, they will get one real practice (at most) after sitting out of practice for weeks. So they almost certainly won’t play, and if they do they will be rusty as hell.
When they play Michigan: The all-time win percentage will be on the line… until Notre Dame vacates a bunch of wins.
Next game: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m. Saturday (NBC)
[We jump, and then I have to pretend I learned something from Utah-Idaho State]
[ED (Seth): Welcome to a new regular-ish feature on the site. Joe Pichey, serious bbq-ing dude, has been writing up tailgating recipes on his blog MMMGoBluBBQ and we're moving him over here because we can and because we've wanted to bring the tailgate experience into the fold. We can do this now because Stubb's offered to sponsor it. This is one of those things where we really liked their BBQ sauce, and it turned out their CEO really likes this blog, and we like Joe's recipes, and our cardiovascular systems must suffer.]
The football season is finally here and I could not be more excited. Not only do we get to see how our new offensive guru plans to operate things, but we also get to fire up the grills and smokers as we sip on a few "barley pops". Since we are playing Notre Dame under the lights and will most likely have a full house by game time, I wanted to make something that will feed a crowd. Is there anything more tasty and fun to eat than a slider? I don't think so. Here is what you will need.
- Pork Tenderloins
- Slider Buns
- White Cheddar or Swiss Cheese
- BBQ Rub
- BBQ Sauce (Honey Pecan or Hickory Bourbon)
Sophomore guard Kyle Bosch is taking an indefinite leave of absence from the team, per this release from the athletic department:
Below is a statement from Michigan head football coach Brady Hoke:
“Kyle Bosch has taken a leave of absence for an undetermined amount of time for personal reasons. We ask that his privacy be respected at this time. We wish him the best and look forward to his return.”
Bosch started three games as a true freshman last year, but only played one snap in the opener. His most recent tweet didn't indicate any issue with the program—in fact, quite the opposite:
Couldn't be prouder having the people family, and teammates that care about me I love em all couldn't be prouder to be a wolverine
— Kyle Bosch (@Kyle_Bosch65) September 1, 2014
Here's hoping Bosch is able to work through whatever is going on at this time.
Our contest with the eponymous functionality returns.
How this works again:
- Readers predict the final score of a designated game by placing a guess in the comments, preferably in the format of [M score][hyphen][Opp score], for example "41-30" or "35-31 Michigan", or "28-24 Go Blue", or "38-34 Gardner FTW!" or "38-0" etc.
- The three guys who read this part holler at people who post in a different format
- First person (by timestamp) to post a particular score has it.
- If you got it right, I contact you for an address by your MGoBlog account email, and you give me some time to get that to you.
- If nobody got it right we push it to next week or let it go.
- Brian voices displeasure at the puns in the headlines.
About Last Week:
Didn't happen and exactly nobody minded.
This Week's Game:
As we wave farewell to this rivalry that has meant so much less to one of us than playing Purdue a lot, we could remember the times we shared, the preposterous 4-point wins, highlight packages to the tune of Benny Hill, that photo of Crable, and the astounding leaps we made to reach all of those impossible footballs and conclusions.
Instead, we choose to commemorate this final meeting with that thing they misspelled on the cups. So long, Fig Things. May you shake down as much thunder from the sky as you do bird poop.
And on the Line…
This 24" x 32" print by renowned portrait artist (and namesake/godson of Bennie Oosterbaan) Ben McCready. From left: Carter, Harmon, Chappuis, Bennie, Kramer, Desmond. Plus some configurations of the stadium. Ace and I already have ours in our "offices."
And one for Mott: If you'd rather skip guessing the score and just get one, Ben has this available as a limited 24x32 edition at an MGoBlog discount of $100 ($25 off), or get the 18" x 24" open edition for $50. For every print sold Ben said he will donate an extra print of that size to a patient at C.S. Mott Children's Hospital, in the buyer's name.
Fine print: One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (for my ease I prefer if you don't post it as a reply to another person's score--if you do it won't help or hurt you). Deadline for entries is 24 hours before the start of the game. MGoEmployees and Moderators exempt from winning. We did not invent the algorithm. The algorithm consistently finds Jesus. The algorithm killed Jeeves. The algorithm is banned in China. The algorithm cheated. No algorithm demonstrates as much class and commitment to education as much as The Algorithm does when their student athletes are committing academic fraud. The algorithm blames Jeeves.This is not the algorithm. It just thinks it is.
file, but he did have the same polo on today
News bullets and other items:
- There’s a plan for the offensive line. It’s a good plan.
- We are not going to talk about any injuries.
“You ready? Thanks for coming. We had a very good practice yesterday which sometimes that's unusual with the first day of school because they're in classes and they've been in the fall camp where they had a little bit more time but from that standpoint I thought we compete and they challenged. It's a big mental day. Tuesdays always are because of the game plan. We were pretty sharp in that respect. Got to be sharper today because of the improvement every day, Because that's going to be important to our team. We're excited about the opportunity Saturday. It's one of the great rivalries and it'll be fun and it'll be a great atmosphere and we look forward to it."
Will Desmond Morgan play?
”Well, you know, we are not going to talk about any injuries.”
So he is injured?
“I didn't say that, you did.”
Jake Butt it looks like was running around on the film and some of those clips they released. Is there a chance…
“We are not talking about injuries. That's a good job though. Appreciate it.”
In terms of that, you said earlier that his timetable was...
“He's done a nice job.”
Greg Mattison has talked about preparing for Everett Golson. Is there something you do differently on the scout team here to prepare for a guy who is a dual threat?
“Yeah. We've used wide receivers in the past. Joe Reynolds was great to use because he was a quarterback in high school, so we've done that with some of the guys. Brian Cleary runs very well and he's done a good job with it and Wilton [Speight], as big as he is and as tall as he is is really a good athlete so those two have given us good looks. We've, because of the first opponent, worked really hard on the zone read aspect of it. Again, you're going to play a really good athlete. We have to have 11 guys getting to the football.”
Do you feel like maybe a construction foreman now because you've laid a pretty good foundation so far? Talk about building this week on top of what you've laid.
“When we got done with the game on Saturday, graded the game on Saturday, looked at it, dissected it, there's so many areas where we want to play more flawless. I know the linebackers felt that they didn't play as well as they need to. I know up front defensively, the inside guys, as far as getting off blocks a little better, holding the point a little better. The precision in the passing game. We had a quarterback who was 13 of 14 but from a mechanical standpoint, a route running standpoint, protection was pretty good but we are going to see a lot of different things this week from Notre Dame. You got to just react, communicate, and play a lot better.”
What about accountability like that [Ed.- this is referencing a microphone going out and the A/V guy taking responsibility for it]? I'm sure it extends to your players as well.
“Well, there's no question. The commitment level and the accountability to each other and what this group has done since last January, you know, has really been at a high level and we want to make sure it stays that way. The intensity in the stress that we can continue to put on our players so that when you do go to a great venue and play a game, a place where it's going to be loud – they pipe in their own music, as we all know. It's right in back of us. It's a place where we've got to play with a lot of focus. Got to be locked into everything we are doing.”
[More fun after THE JUMP]