THE ESSENTIALS

THE THEM

Illinois is the only Big Ten opponent Michigan hasn't faced yet this year. They're a weird team, blessed with two A-level stars but capable of scoring droughts spanning a quarter of the game.

The main main is junior guard Brandon Paul. He may technically be the two-guard but in practice he is the man with the ball in his hands most of the time. Paul's usage is prodiguous but he's not great at anything in particular. His assist rate is high; so is his TO rate. His shooting efficiency is mediocre both from three (34%) and two (43%). He gets to the line a lot, I guess, and he is a big component of Illinois's defensive rebounding. He's a better version of Manny Harris.

The second A-level star is sophomore center Meyers Leonard, who is shooting 61% from two, rebounding furiously, and blocking many, many shots. He does a good job of staying on the floor and has above-average (but not amazingly so) usage. He's quality, and the prospect of Leonard matching up against Michigan players a half-foot shorter and no more athletic is daunting.

Illinois's third banana is guard DJ Richardson.  Richardson is perimeter-oriented guard hitting 39% from three and 44% from two; he does not get to the line or turn the ball over much.

After those three there's a rotation with no player seeing more than 55% of available minutes. They are:

• Backup C Nnanna Egwu. Yeah. "Nnanna." Low usage turnover machine who doesn't even rebound well. If Leonard gets into foul trouble Illinois is toast—they were close against the Hoosiers until Leonard picked up two quick fouls, one for having his jaw in the way of Cody Zeller's elbow, the other a weak moving screen call. Leonard went to the bench and Illinois folded immediately.
• Senior starting G Sam Maniscalco. Grad-year transfer from Bradley. Decent usage but not a threat from deep (27%). Efficient from inside two and at the line.
• Sophomore wing Joseph Bertrand. Wing slasher; has no range (just 5 three attempts on the year) but hitting 58% on twos. Doesn't get to the line.
• Nominal starting G Tracy Abrams. Low usage turnover machine. Awful offensive player. Plays half of available minutes and does nothing at all well statistically. Must be a good defender or something.
• Junior PF Tyler Griffey. Good offensive rebounder, will shot threes, big TO rate.

Basically any shot not from the top three guys or Bertrand is a good shot for Michigan. If Leonard gets into foul trouble Michigan may be able to run away and hide—his backup is that bad.

As a team, Illinois does not shoot well from three. The only guy you should wince at leaving open on the perimeter is Richardson. Paul is meh; threes from everyone else are good for Michigan no matter how open they are.

THE RESUME

Brandon Paul temporarily evolved into a higher life form on January 10th en route to like a billion points in Illinois's dramatic upset of Ohio State. At that point the Illini were 15-3 and cruising. They've lost five of six since. Because basketball makes no sense the lone win was a one-point decision over Michigan State in a totally horrendous game.

For all the harrumphing about Michigan's road struggles, Illinois's only road win against a top-100 Kenpom opponent was by one point at Northwestern.

Illinois's only nonconference win of note was a home game against Gonzaga. They also beat Maryland. They lost badly to UNLV and narrowly to Missouri.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference four factors:

Illinois is just not an efficient team except when they get off twos.

Illinois is ninth in both shooting and defending the three, second at shooting twos, and block a lot of shots. They don't give up a lot of threes, something that may be more important than the actual percentage opponents shoot.

THE PROTIPS

Survive Meyers Leonard. It would be immensely helpful if Leonard got in foul trouble; Illinois has no backup, basically. If that doesn't happen I'm guessing we see some of the 2-3 and 1-2-2 zones Michigan has deployed through the year. We might even see the endangered 1-3-1; Illinois is not a smooth offensive team and could dribble themselves into a bunch of trouble.

Another Leonard mitigation possibility: more McLimans. His size could prevent Leonard from getting as many touches as he would otherwise, and five fouls are five fouls.

Hope Stu can handle Paul. Brandon Paul could explode and not leave Michigan much chance to do anything about it. That has not been the case for much of the Big Ten season, however. Paul can get a shot any time he wants but they don't go down regularly enough for him to be efficient unless he's getting to the basket with regularity. Keep him shooting jumpers… and hope he doesn't go unconscious a la Ohio State.

Generic Hardaway concern. Get him going to the basket off screens and see what happens. Please for the love of god make some threes. Etc.

Crash the boards a bit more than usual. A shotblocker like Leonard will often leave his feet, allowing a weakside rebounder an opportunity to clean up shots that get past outstretched arms. Michigan has all but abdicated offensive rebounding; maybe they should try to get some cheap buckets that way.

Win the bench. Illinois has some dudes that aren't very good; Michigan is basically six or seven deep right now, and the guys off the bench aren't contributing much. If M can get some quality minutes from Vogrich and Smotrycz when members of the Illini Big Three are on the bench it'll help.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by five.

Columbus (OH) Marion-Franklin WR Jaron Dukes made his first-ever trip to Ann Arbor yesterday for an unofficial visit to his childhood favorite, Michigan. Dukes told me earlier this week that he was "ecstatic" upon receiving his Wolverine offer and "[has] my mind set on where I want to go," but he's heeding the advice of his coaches and parents and making sure to check out not only Michigan, but other schools as well before me makes a commitment. I spoke with Jaron last night when he returned from his visit, and needless to say he enjoyed the trip:

ACE: How'd you enjoy the visit?

JARON: Oh, I loved it. It was the best.

ACE: Do you want to expand on that? Take me through what you saw in Ann Arbor.

JARON: I'll tell you what I saw. I saw a love for Michigan. Everybody I talked to loves the university, loves everything about it. They were a family, you could tell there was a bond everywhere you went, you could just feel it. It was just a great place to be. They took me through the facilities, they showed me the field, academic center, athletic center, I talked to the dean, everything—it was just great.

ACE: Who hosted you on the visit and what coaches were you talking to?

JARON: It was myself, Coach Heck, Coach Montgomery, and another coach, I think he was the linebackers coach.

ACE: What was your impression of the coaching staff?

JARON: (laughs) We were just over there having a good time, laughing and talking, making sure Michigan will be a place that I will be happy at. It was just having a great time getting to know the school and everything, not putting pressure on me, just letting me enjoy seeing the campus and everything for right now.

ACE: What would you say was the high point of the visit? Can you pick out a particular thing that stood out to you?

JARON: Easily. Easily I can say the highest point was me starting from the very top of the tunnel, running down the tunnel, jumping, and just walking out onto the field. I went from the 'M' in the center of the field, to end zone, to end zone, and back to the center, and a tear came down my face.

ACE: Is Michigan a place you could see yourself playing?

JARON: Oh, yes sir.

ACE: I know you didn't want to make a snap decision, a commitment on the visit, but what is it going to take it terms of knowing when you'd like to make a decision? Also, what's it going to take for another school to be able to match what Michigan offers?

JARON: I don't think, well, I don't know. I guess they have to show, they'd have to impress my parents. If my parents are happy, then I'm going to be happy, but as long as I feel I'm safe there, then it'll be OK.

ACE: What did your parents think of the trip?

JARON: My parents really liked it, they loved it. They just want me—and they should—they want me to go around and make sure that I've got everything else out of the way that I want to see. They want me to go around and see what other colleges have to offer. Show me that there's more than just one school out there.

ACE: Do you know what other schools you want to see at this point?

JARON: Yes. I would like to take a trip to Cincinnati, Michigan State, I'd like to go up to West Virginia, maybe Illinois.

ACE: Do you know when you'd want to take those visits and when you'd want to be done with your recruitment, or is that still to be decided?

JARON: That still has to be decided with my parents, and me and my coaches would have to go over it.

So this is both late and half-assed. Apologies. Probably worth it, though: the Brian things done today included a minimal amount of driving around listening to the Smiths but were mostly attending the Novi Glazier clinic to hear Greg Mattison talk about the Michigan defense and Darrell Funk talk over my head about inside zone minutiae. Then I got home and crashed to sleep because getting up at 7 AM  is not part of the regular routine.

MSU IS HOCKEYBEAR TIME

The Essentials 

Previously: Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, Purdue

Iowa

Schedule:

• Tennessee Tech, 34-7 (W)
• @ Iowa State, 41-44 OT (L)
• Pittsburgh, 31-27 (W)
• Louisiana-Monroe, 45-17 (W)
• @ Penn State, 3-13 (L)
• Northwestern, 41-31 (W)
• Indiana, 45-24 (W)
• @ Minnesota, 21-22 (L)
• No. 15 Michigan, 24-16 (W)
• No. 17 Michigan State, 21-37 (L)
• @ Purdue, 31-21 (W)
• @ No. 21 Nebraska, 7-20 (L)
• No. 14 Oklahoma, 14-31 (L) Insight Bowl

Record: 7-6 overall, 4-4 B1G, 4^th place Bo Division

Stats:

Recap: If one word could describe Iowa’s 2011 campaign, that word would be “flat.” So flat that if you were to survey the terrain while driving through the state you’d be all like, “Huh, this reminds me strongly of their season,” and you’d also see the one landfill-turned-ski slope off the freeway, and it would be named “Michigan.”

Sorry. I’m a metaphors kind of guy.

This is a metaphor.

(more metaphors after the jump)

Despite finishing just 3-11 from the field for six points in Michigan's win against Nebraska on Wednesday, Tim Hardaway Jr. showed signs that he could snap out of the scoring funk that has plagued him for much of the Big Ten season. With Hardaway, it all comes down to shot selection; against the Huskers, he was 0-6 from three and 3-5 from inside the arc. In the second half, especially, John Beilein called plays designed to get Hardaway moving towards the basket.

The first play I'm going to look at needs a bit of an introduction, and luckily Dylan has already taken the time to picture page the play that sets it all up. Check out the second play (the one from the Nebraska game) in UMHoops's Inside the Play feature from today. The video is below, and you'll see that Jordan Morgan sets a high-side on-ball screen for Hardaway, rolls hard to the basket, and is wide open for a layup:

Here's the very next Michigan possession. The Wolverines set up with four plays in a box up top while Hardaway is isolated in the far corner of the court. As you'll see, this setup will allow Michigan to spread the floor and have ample room to set up that same screen action on the left side of the court:

In the next frame, Burke has passed to Novak and gone to the near corner, and Novak has swung the ball to Morgan at the top of the key. Everybody but Hardaway is concentrated on the near side of the court:

Hardaway flashes up to the elbow and gets the pass from Morgan, who comes over to set a screen. Morgan's defender (#13) is prepared to hedge, and Hardaway's (#3) begins to lean in to Morgan, anticipating having to fight through the pick:

Hardaway recognizes that his defender is cheating, so instead of coming over the screen he quickly takes it left and blows by his man. Note that Douglass and Burke are way out on the perimeter while Novak is clearing out to the far corner; with Morgan's defender caught up top, there's nobody in the middle to stop the drive:

Hardaway gets into the paint with ease and rises above Novak's man, who has come over to help, finishing with a pretty finger-roll as someone's flash goes off:

Full video:

This is a great way for Michigan to create offense for Hardaway when he has the ball in his hands, and it has the added bonus of making Jordan Morgan a viable offensive threat—he's at his best when he's rolling to the basket, and this setup forces the defense to pick their poison. Granted, the Huskers could be a lot more sound with their pick-and-roll D, but forcing a team to be aware of the roll while guarding the drive off either taking or refusing the pick will usually expose some flaws.

Michigan found other ways to get Hardaway involved in the offense, as well. On this next play, he sets an off-ball screen for Burke before getting the ball in that same spot on the wing. Instead of having the center—in this case, Smotrycz—come up for a pick, the Wolverines spread the floor, giving Hardaway all the space he needs to get to the hoop for another layup:

Hardaway's third field goal, in contrast to his first two, comes from his movement off the ball. When THJ sees Novak draw attention from the defense as he dribbles towards the top of the key, Hardaway makes a sharp backdoor cut behind his befuddled defender. Novak makes a gorgeous one-handed pass on the move, hitting Hardaway in stride for another layup:

While there will certainly be adjustments by future opponents, you can see that Beilein is working to get Hardaway the ball in a position where he can get to the basket, taking advantage of his athleticism while mitigating his shooting struggles. At some point Hardaway is going to have to find that shooting stroke, but in the meantime it helps that the team is focused on getting him great looks at the basket.

Brian is off doing super-important Brian things for the day (read: aimlessly driving around Ann Arbor while listening to The Smiths, probably), so you're stuck with me for an entire Friday. I know, I'm sorry too. Anyways, today's recruiting roundup looks at the new Rivals250—replete with many magnificent monikers—new offers, lists, and visits for the 2013 class, and a study on recruiting exenditures in the NCAA.

NOTY, NOTY, NOTY, Can't You See? Sometimes Your Names Just Hypnotize Me

Rivals is the latest recruiting service to release rankings for the class of 2013, putting out the Rivals100 on Wednesday before unveiling the full Rivals250 yesterday. There are only 11 five-stars on the list, but Shane Morris is in position to earn that status in the near future as he comes in at #16 overall (#3 QB). Fellow commit Dymonte Thomas is ranked at #77, and Josh Helmholdt discussed his status in the "toughest decisions" article:

Alliance (Ohio) Marlington safety Dymonte Thomas is one of the fastest players in the Midwest for 2013, and overall an outstanding athlete. As a junior, though, he mostly played close to the line of scrimmage and we did not get a chance to see much of him in coverage. So, we did not get too bullish on his ranking until we were able to more thoroughly assess his coverage skills.

If Thomas can show off his coverage ability in camps this summer, expect him to make a move up the board. Meanwhile, your suspicions that Michigan has offered a ton of blue-chip prospects early is correct. TTB has the full rundown on Wolverine offerees in the Rivals100 and the Rivals250—Michigan has offered 35 prospects in the top 100 alone and an additional 19 in the 101-250 range. Two of those are Morris and Thomas, and five players are committed to other schools, but needless to say the Wolverines are targeting the best of the best in what should be a smaller class than 2012.

As impressive as Michigan offer list is, perhaps more incredible is the sheer amount of Name of the Year candidates from the Rivals250. A sampling, for your reading pleasure:

• Alabama RB commit Altee Tenpenny
• Vianna (GA) DT Montravius Adams
• Muscle Shoals (AL) DE Dee Liner
• Fort Worth (TX) DT A'Shawn Robinson
• Fultondale (AL) ATH ArDarius Stewart
• Virginia Beach RB Taquan Mizzell
• My personal favorite: Moreno Valley (CA) WR Demorea Stringfellow
• Cedar Hill (TX) ATH Laquvionte Gonzalez
• Pickerington (OH) DE Taco Charlton (real name: Vidauntae)
• Dallas (TX) WR Ra'Shaad Samples
• New Orleans TE Standish Dobard
• Shreveport (LA) ATH Tre'Davious White
• Pomfret (MD) OL Na'Ty Rodgers
• Milpitas (CA) DE Vita Vea
• Mesquite (TX) WR Eldridge Massington

That's leaving out some pretty strong names, too. I highly recommend perusing the entire list, not only to educate yourself on this year's top prospects, but for some serious entertainment value. Throw in South Carolina CB De'Andre "Chocolate" WIlson, who missed the cut, and I nominate this for the best class of names in recent memory.

Speaking of Names... Jake Butt

Sam Webb's latest DetNews piece covers Pickerington (OH) North TE/DE Jake Butt (#96 overall in the Rivals250), who says Michigan is his leader "by far" early in the process. Butt doesn't have a concrete timeline yet and childhood favorite Ohio State could become a major factor in his recruitment should they choose to offer, so this one is far from over. That said, the Wolverines are in great position early, and while they're recruiting Butt as a tight end (stifle those giggles, children), he's also a strong prospect on the other side of the ball:

"Jake is an athletic kid with a great frame," [Scout.com's Allen] Trieu said. "He still has to add more weight and strength to his game, but he runs well for a kid of that size and is a very coordinated athlete. On offense he catches the ball well, his height makes him a matchup problem, and his athleticism allows him to create separation. At the same time, Jake is one of those rare kids who I think projects very well to both sides of the ball. I think he's a BCS prospect on both sides of the ball. For most schools it sounds like he's a defensive end right now, but a handful see him as a tight end too."

"Jake is right there as a potential top-10 prospect in Ohio. It's a fairly deep year down there, as usual, it's just not as top heavy (as it was in the 2012 class). We haven't really finalized anything yet, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up in the top eight to 12 prospects in the state."

Another top Midwest prospect holding a Michigan offer is Wheaton (IL) St. Francis OL Kyle Bosch, Rivals.com's #60 overall prospect, who has taken multiple trips to Ann Arbor and has an interesting way of going about his visits ($, info in header):

Normally when a recruit visiting Ann Arbor says he wants to talk to someone, the names that come up tend to be Denard Robinson, Taylor Lewan, Ryan Van Bergen -- the "famous" players on the Michigan football team.

But those aren't the guys 2013 offensive line recruit Kyle Bosch (Wheaton, Ill./St. Francis) is interested in talking to.

He's more interested in Chris Bryant, Graham Glasgow or Keith Heitzman, Michigan players most have never heard of. That's because they're freshmen.

"I want to see where they stand going through their freshmen years, whether it lived up to the expectations that they had," Bosch said. "I'm more curious to get to know what the first year at Michigan is like compared to three or four years into it."

I've never heard that before, but it's a strategy that makes sense, especially for a highly-touted recruit who will have to make the transition from Big Man on Campus to lowly freshman when college begins. The whole profile by Chantel Jennings is well worth a read if you have Insider—it sounds like Bosch has a good head on his shoulders and is going about his recruitment the right way. He plans to visit Ann Arbor again on February 18th ($).

Here's your latest list of 2013 offers as Michigan continues to send them out in bulk:

• Indianapolis North Central DL Darius Latham, who Trieu profiled for free on Scout. He also picked up a Tennessee offer, joining Northwestern, Indiana, Ole Miss, Purdue, and Minnesota early.
• Richmond (VA) Varina S Tim Harris added offers from both Michigan and Ohio State on Tuesday ($, info in header).
• Another Richmond prospect, Hermitage High School RB Derrick Green, earned offers from the Wolverines and USC ($, info in header). They join a laundry-list of national powers pursuing Rivals.com's #64 overall player.
• Owensboro (KY) OT Hunter Bivin recently added offers from Michigan, Ohio State, LSU, Notre Dame, Miami, and several other Big Ten and SEC schools ($, info in header). He visited Michigan unofficially twice in the fall—including for the Ohio State game—and has high interest in the Wolverines early.
• Grand Rapids Christian two-sport star Drake Harris boasts an offer to play both football and basketball from Michigan, MSU, Indiana, and Notre Dame ($, info in header). The 6'4" wide receiver/shooting guard is coached by former Wolverine wideout Tai Streets in AAU basketball.
• Somerville (NJ) Immaculata DE Tashawn Bower—#250 in the Rivals250—picked up his Wolverine offer on Tuesday ($, info in header). His dad is a Michigan fan and he plans on taking a spring trip to Ann Arbor.
• Wisconsin tight end commit Scott Orndorff got offered by Michigan, Boston College, and Virginia; he plans on looking around after some recent changes to the Badger coaching staff ($, info in header).

Several players started narrowing down their lists this week. Blue chip linebacker E.J. Levenberry now has Michigan in his top three along with Florida and Florida State, though his father says that list is subject to change ($, info in header). Bloomfield (NJ) OT Marcell Lazard named a top four of UConn, Miami, Michigan, and West Virginia, and he plans to visit Michigan later this month ($). Michigan is one of 11 schools being considered by Louisville (KY) Trinity DE Jason Hatcher ($, info in header). As for players Michigan did not make the cut for, five-star tackle Laremy Tunsil now has a top three of Florida, Georgia, and Alabama ($, info in header), while top-ranked linebacker Jaylon Smith's top three includes Notre Dame, Ohio State, and... Purdue ($, info in header). Did not see that one coming.

Many players are setting up visits, as well. Michigan will host four juniors this weekend: offensive linemen Logan Tuley-Tillman and Chris Fox and receivers Jaron Dukes and Laquon Treadwell. Of the four, Dukes and Fox are the most likely to make early decisions—both have mentioned Michigan among their leaders, and Dukes has the Wolverines as his clear favorite—while both LTT and Treadwell will likely take a while before deciding after their offer lists expanded greatly in recent weeks.

Kyle Bosch won't be the only Illinois lineman on campus on the 18th—he'll be joined by Lemont's Ethan Pocic ($). Another Illinois lineman, Colin McGovern, plans to take a trip to Michigan on March 10th ($). Top-ranked tight end Adam Breneman, meanwhile, had to alter his visit plans, pushing back planned trips to Penn State (later this month) and Ohio State (sometime in the spring). I asked him on Twitter if he was still planning a trip to Ann Arbor, and he wasn't sure yet. The general consensus—and I agree with it—is that it will be very tough to beat out childhood favorite Penn State for him.

In very quick 2014 news, Michigan will host St. Louis OT Andy Bauer this weekend, and they've also shown interest in Mequon (WI) Homestead DT Brandon Hines ($, info in header).

Spendin' That Paper

The Business of College Sports blog released a list of the top 50 spenders in recruiting among all sports, and the list is dominated by the SEC, whose schools take up six of the top eight spots (Tennessee leads the way at nearly $2.3 million last year). Coming in at #9, and tops among Big Ten schools, is your very own Wolverines, spending just under $1.5 million. The order of the rest of the B1G schools is rather surprsing: Illinois (#14), Nebraska (#19), Ohio State (#23), Minnesota (#24), Penn State (#26), Purdue (#41), Michigan State (#42), Iowa (#43), and Indiana (#46) round out the schools in the top 50. It's best to keep in mind that this includes all sports for both men and women; it would be interesting to see how this compares to spending on football alone. [H/T: Lost Lettermen]

Tremendous interviewed preferred walk-on OL Dan Gibbs, who will join the 2012 class on campus this fall, and the young man is not only an Eagle Scout, but well-versed in the current Wolverine lingo [emphasis mine]:

Tremendous: What did it feel like when you finally decided to go with Michigan?

Dan: I'm about as excited as can be! It feels absolutely amazing to finally realize my life-long dream of playing Michigan Football.

Tremendous: Was it an easy decision given the scholarship situation?

Dan: It wasn't the easiest decision, per se. I was seriously considering Penn, especially after my visit there, and other Ivy League options. But this is Michigan fergodsakes! In the end, Michigan won out by a mile because I realized that it was where I always wanted to be.

Tremendous.