chance of bowl: 13.6%
I keep mentioning Michigan's disastrous 2010 class and how Michigan's attrition has slowed considerably since Brady Hoke was made head coach, so I thought I'd lay that out in pixels.
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few years—Hoke's attrition rate will go up as certain guys find themselves buried on the depth chart and his classes have more time to pick up career-ending injuries, but so far so good.
Starter-level contributors are in italics.
[UPDATE: I corrected some errors. Hopkins left football, Teric Jones was injured, Hayes was an RR recruit, italicized Raymon Taylor.]
This was a Rodriguez class, his first full one. Only redshirt seniors are still around from it.
Jeremy Gallon, Justin Turner, Taylor Lewan
Enrolled: Jeremy Gallon, Taylor Lewan, Quinton Washington, Michael Schofield, Cam Gordon, Fitz Toussaint, Mike Jones, Thomas Gordon, Brendan Gibbons
Played Out Eligibility: Will Campbell, Craig Roh, Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, Brandin Hawthorne.
Transferred for PT (3): Vlad Emilien, Je'Ron Stokes, Isaiah Bell
Academics/Not Being Nice (3): Justin Turner, Tate Forcier, Adrian Witty
Injury (1): Teric Jones
Left Football: N/A
This is actually a high-quality outfit with 17 of 24 kids completing their eligibility or about to do so. Michigan got ten starter-level contributors with the prospect of adding an eleventh in Cam Gordon this year, and there should be four to six NFL draft picks out of this group when it's all said and done.
The biggest bummers here are Justin Turner's inability to scale depth charts that were below sea level for most of his time here, and Tate Forcier's spectacular flameout. That's not too bad for a large class.
All Rodriguez, during his under fire period.
Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal
Enrolled (9): Richard Ash, Courtney Avery, Jibreel Black, Drew Dileo, Devin Gardner, Jordan Paskorz, Jake Ryan, Jeremy Jackson, Will Hagerup(?)
Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal
Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones
Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace
Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins
The disaster class. Four kids never showed up on campus because of academic issues—which is four more than Hoke has had in two and a half recruiting classes. A fifth, Austin White, was immediately a problem child and didn't make it to fall after enrolling early. While Rodriguez can't be faulted for losing the Talbotts or Christian Pace, he can be faulted for making Pace the only(!) offensive lineman in this class.
Michigan also brought in an assortment of guys who busted almost immediately. Cullen Christian was out the door after one year, as was Ray Vinopal. DJ Williamson quit to go run track at Akron. Ricardo Miller hung on a little longer but was moved to tight end quickly, which was pretty much the death knell.
Finally, hanging over this class is the bizarre specter of guys who were getting playing time but left anyway: Christian, Vinopal, Johnson, and Hopkins were all seeing snaps—though Hopkins did seem to lose his job after moving to fullback—early, and then left.
Meanwhile the few guys who are still around are Jake Ryan, Devin Gardner, Jibreel Black, and some role players. Three starters out of 27 players, and 8 or 9 guys who are even here right now, depending on how you want to classify Hagerup.
Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada
This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.
Enrolled (13): Justice Hayes, Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Chris Bryant*, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, Frank Clark(H), Thomas Rawls(H), Desmond Morgan, Russell Bellomy(H), Keith Heitzman (H), Jack Miller, Matt Wile(H)
*[Bryant actually committed after Hoke was hired but had been favoring Michigan so long that Rodriguez deserves the credit there.]
Transferred for PT (1): Tamani Carter(H)
Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones
Injury (1): Antonio Poole(H)
Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.
Beset on all sides, Rodriguez struggled again in 2011. He locked down Brennen Beyer and Blake Countess and found an excellent sleeper in Desmond Morgan, but that's about it. He recruited three guys who didn't make it through year one at Michigan—Posada in particular showed up for a cup of coffee only—and missed out on Lawrence Thomas, DeAnthony Arnett, and Anthony Zettel in-state. He did put Michigan in a good spot for Chris Bryant, who technically committed after Hoke was hired.
By the time Hoke came in he had ten spots to fill in three weeks and he was swinging wildly. He found some hits: Wile, Clark, looking like Taylor and Heitzman. He also brought in Chris Barnett, a tight end who'd had more high schools than years in high school. He immediately flamed out and took Kellen Jones with him; Jones would later flame out at Oklahoma as well. Minnesota decommit Tamani Carter also couldn't hack it quickly and departed; Antonio Poole was hewed down by injury.
13 of the 20 guys enter their true junior or redshirt sophomore seasons, and while there's significant attrition already almost all of it can be attributed to Rodriguez recruiting some guys who saw the (depressed) talent level at Michigan and said "noooope" and Hoke having to cram ten guys in his recruiting class in three weeks time.
Redshirt freshmen and sophomores.
Enrolled: 24 of the 25 guys have made it to the beginning of year two.
Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.
Hey look, everyone qualified and nobody was so patently out of their depth that they transferred out after one year.
I am filing Ringer as an injury issue, since I have it that he underwent serious knee surgery that robbed him of his athleticism. He chose to stick it out at a lower level instead of retire.
All are qualified and enrolled. None have committed to the University of Awful Rap.
Weird line combinations and depth stuff have been coming out of practice. What should we believe, what's motivational, what's a boo boo, what's anything in this crazy world? We go under cover and bring you the NEWS that HITS the HARDEST (at least until Jake Ryan returns, because he hits harder than our news). The staff:
- Brian Woodward
- Seth Bernstein
- Ace Bradlee
- Heiko Felt, Sr.
- Blue in South Katherine Graham
- Deep Throw
And the question:
Heiko and I have been arguing about this on gchat and I thought I'd bring it to the team. We want to know where you think there are real positional battles going on right now, and how you're handicapping them. For example:
Center: 55% Glasgow, 40% Miller, 5% Kugler
SAM: 85% Gordon, 15% Beyer
Norfleet: 100% Norfleet, 400% Norfleet, Norfleet% Norfleet.
Mathlete: Shouldn't it be Norfleet: 75% Slot, 20% RB, 5% DB, 100% Awesome?
Ace: The lineup seems refreshingly settled at most spots (hooray depth!); the only positions I see having real competition are tailback, outside receiver, center, and strongside linebacker, though it'll be interesting to see if there are any surprises in the defensive backfield with the return of Blake Countess and Dymonte Thomas's potential early impact at nickel. I'm operating under the assumption that Keith Heitzman earns the nod at SDE and Jibreel Black starts at three-tech with Chris Wormley playing a key role as a backup.
Starting from the top, we've discussed the running back battle ad nauseam; Fitz Toussaint should start against CMU and Derrick Green will push for more and more carries as the season wears on. I'll go 99% Toussaint (barring injury) and a 1% chance that Dennis Norfleet gets the season's first carry as Al Borges epically trolls Brian.
[Surprising (and probably meaningless) revelations and scandal, minus the scandal, after the jump]
The youtube search I have that usually turns up Michigan State fans in gorilla costumes and ads for illegal streams has hit upon something actually interesting for a change: cut-ups from the Michigan coaches' clinic.
This one is on Michigan's perimeter blocking:
Hit up 25 minutes for always-entertaining editions of the Michigan drill
The good blocks are widely distributed between Roundtree, Gallon, and Dileo with some cameos by Gardner(!) and Darboh. Darboh just buries a couple guys; Dileo and Gallon bring that Martavious Odoms mountain-goat-style blocking to the party. These clips are just the good bits, for the most part, but it seems like Michigan likes what they have in that department this year. Gallon in particular is ruthless in his desire to put guys on their ass 40 yards from the play.
Darboh should be an asset, as he's got a lot more size than anyone they played last year save Gardner and seems to have the same desire the mighty mites do.
The second item is about 5 minutes of individual WR drills featuring everyone's favorite training landmark:
The big takeaway there is the huge agility gap between Jackson and Darboh/Chesson, let alone the slot-type guys at the top of the depth chart.
Yes. Fun. Annual best CTK is just four minutes of the Michigan drill:
- Lewan buries Keith Heitzman on the first rep; Heitzman comes back and does much better against Schofield on the next one. Not entirely unexpected.
- Rawls absolutely runs over Ross Douglas on a rep, causing both guys to pop up and jut chests at each other threateningly.
- Washington looks good on both his reps, though he gave some ground on #1.
- Ross sheds very well on his single rep, as does Jarrod Wilson. Wormley does not and immediately gets a coach in his face repeating "escape, escape, escape" to him.
- A rather large-looking Mike McCray has interesting reps separated by 30 seconds or so. On the first one, Kyle Bosch drives him way out of the frame. On the second, he dumps Blake Bars to the ground and makes a tackle.
- Taco stands up Jake Butt, RB darts by, Mattison exclaims "HE WENT OUTSIDE THE CONE" in an effort to claim that one for the D.
- Strobel does a good job against walk-on Erik Gunderson.
- Jeremy Jackson locks up Richardson and waltzes him downfeld. Not a huge surprise, but an indicator as to why it's going to be hard for Richardson to get on the field this year.
- Pipkins wins a rep against Glasgow with authority.
Omar comin'? Frank Clark gets the CTK treatment:
Clark says he'd be competitive with Devin Gardner in a 40 yard dash… but not Denard. He says he 268, not 277, but a CTK a few days later they say he's 274. I dunno, pick one.
Also available: Aaron Wellman may get results, but does he sound like a gravel truck? Maybe a little. Jeremy Jackson's Day 18 is mostly a look into weirdass Navy Seal exercises like "kick a pole and wiggle forward on your butt" and "rub sand on your head." Jake Ryan is running and whatnot.
Hail Brady. Oh man Michigan's head coach has the same opinion on uniformz as sane people do:
"(The uniform issue is) bigger than it should be," Hoke said Monday during a radio interview with FoxSports' Jay Mohr. "But we’re traditional, and we have such a great tradition and legacies, we’re going to be staying pretty much standard.” …
“We had one uniform we wore once that we won’t wear again,” he said. "It’s something that you’re always trying to have that excitement with your kids, and that’s part of it."
Is that the ghost number outfit, the No Rain bumblebee one, or… actually the Sugar Bowl uniforms were hardly different from the usual and fine.
The times, they have changed. Ohio State picks up a 2015 PG commit from AJ Harris, a 5'8" kid who I'd never heard of. A quick check of the UMHoops page for him reveals nothing but a lot of scouting from various AAU tournaments, so that's why: no one had mentioned him in connection with a Michigan offer. This is interesting for a couple reasons:
- It likely removes OSU from the Jalen Brunson chase, but Harris is a AAU teammate of Luke Kennard.
- Harris's commitment was "shocking" because as of two weeks ago he said Michigan was at the top and he wanted to be Trey Burke.
Harris told Eleven Warriors that "it's true, I did want to hear from Michigan," but Michigan is focused on a half-dozen high profile targets. So… Ohio point guard picks Ohio State because Michigan showed no interest. Remember when the basketball program was 1-6 in the Big Ten? No? I don't either.
Meanwhile in silly things said on the internet:
What could make it sweeter? Beating out Michigan for a prospect that two weeks ago wanted to emulate Trey Burke.
To beat the man, the man has to be in the ring, or at least cognizant of the fact there is a ring.
Booker and Johnson do things. Elsewhere in basketball recruiting news—we are downshifting from occasional roundups as football season starts—Devin Booker releases a top five of Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, Missouri, and Florida. The latter two are not reputed to be strong contenders, especially Florida. Booker told Scout that he's set up officials with the other four schools and pull the trigger "whenever I feel whatever schools is right for me" and that he's not even sure he'll visit Florida.
You are rooting for Indiana decommit (and Kentucky legacy) James Blackmon to pick the Wildcats, as they seem to be the biggest threat at the moment. Indiana blog Inside The Hall thinks Blackmon is all but locked up for the Wildcats, so we've got that going for us. The primary way things could go pear-shaped if Blackmon takes Kentucky off the table is if Michigan gets a commit from Trevon Bluiett and Booker looks at Stauskas/Irvin/LeVert/Bluiett as a higher hill to climb than Michigan State's roster.
Also, Ypsi PF Jaylen Johnson, who recently took a visit to Michigan, is profiled by the Louisville paper:
“I love his activity,” Meyer said. “He’s athletic, he’s long, and he’s so active. He’s such an aggressive rebounder, one of those who is always fighting for position early. I love his feel for the game as a rebounder.”
Meyer thinks Johnson will end up at Louisville, so expect him to cut Louisville from his list immediately. YES I AM STILL BITTER.
Finally, touted 2015 PF Carlton Bragg plans a visit:
We talked about it a little,” Graves said. “I think Carlton would be a three, stretch four because he has the jumper to be 6-9 just like a forward that runs the floor, like a hybrid. We haven’t talked x’s and o’s but they can see him in their system, especially with the three’s that they shoot.”
Bragg is open at the moment; Ohio State will be a major player.
They were almost ready to throw in the towel last year. On the OL, that is. Apparently the debate as to whether to redshirt Kyle Kalis was being had within the walls of Schembechler Hall as well as without:
"It sucked," the redshirt freshman offensive lineman said Sunday. "It sucked. So many times, I was close to going in, but they didn't want to burn my redshirt.
"Everyone wants to play, and it sucks (when you don't get to). And I was mad about it."
So many times I was like "why aren't they playing Kalis." At least we know now there was much debate about it.
Prepare for WJC departures. The United States of Hockey handicaps the National Junior Evaluation Camp field, which includes four Michigan forwards. Chris Peters projects that Compher ("One of the better centers for most of the camp… really strong when playing a bottom-six role and playing an aggressive, grinding two-way style") and Copp ("A prime candidate to play the fourth-line shutdown role the U.S. will so badly need to succeed") will make the roster, while Motte and Nieves are question marks. Nieves's evaluation is pretty much the thing:
Nieves is one of those guys where if he finds that missing piece to his game, he could be really good. With size, speed and some truly remarkable puck skills, he’s got a lot of the tools going for him. He just couldn’t seem to finish the play out with the right decision or buy himself time when he needed it. That led to poor shots or turnovers and that’s going to be tough to do at the WJC level. The speed and skills are there, but I think he needs some more work.
Right now he's Milan Gajic, a guy who looks like he's got every skill you could want but doesn't put it together to blow up. He's got some more time to break out of that rut.
Meanwhile, Motte is sounding like something not very much like the midget puck wizard I'd assumed he would be:
Motte showed good quickness and some skill in a solid camp performance. He had some good two-way play and worked really well when playing with Compher and Fasching in the middle parts of the camp.
He might grab a lower-rung spot, especially if the brass thinks his long familiarity with Compher would make a good pairing.
Are they related to Wiz Khalifa? I don't know what this means.
For Gallon, there’s an added bonus there: He and Gardner are extremely tight. “Closer than Phineas and Ferb,” as Gallon puts it.
I am old.
Etc.: Big Ten building spree reaches 1.5 billion dollars. No M-OSU night games on the docket according to Jim Delany. Chengelis wants to futz with the tunnel. Michael Bradley profiled. Penn State fans no likey Hoke after the Wangler decommitment. Moeller and Lou Holtz break down The Catch.
Running back carry splits: we went over them in last week's roundtable, argued them in the practice tweet post, and then Brian answered a question about it in his mailbag. This horse has been very bad; perhaps it needs one more lesson.
What I'd like to do is illustrate this point of Brian's from the mailbox:
Even if Fitzgerald Toussaint is 100% healthy, someone else is going to get a lot of carries. Michigan ran 502 times last year, and even carry-magnet LeVeon Bell only scooped up 382 for Michigan State. Meanwhile, Toussaint has 130 and 187 carries the last two years. There are going to be 200 to 300 carries, minimum, handed out to other players, and with the situation at quarterback only a handful will be Devin Gardner's.
Last year, yes, but last year was a weird one for rushing and I'd like to see what's really been out there. And here we go:
[Jump for splits by depth and discussion]
From L to R: Jared Wangler, Jack Wangler, Shane Morris, Brent Morris (via Tim Sullivan)
Dad Achievement: Unlocked
Jared Wangler's commitment flip from Penn State to Michigan on Friday gave the Wolverines their final linebacker in the 2014 class. It also gave Jared's father, former Michigan quarterback John, a rare hat trick of sorts, per The Wolverine's Chris Balas ($):
[I]t's a good thing business is good at his Top Cat sales company (an adidas distributor), the elder Wangler said with a laugh. Son Jack is a walk-on wide receiver and daughter Halle is transferring from Oakland University to walk on to the Michigan team this year.
"I do have a few college tuition bills to pay," Wangler said.
He's not complaining, though, rather living a father's dream.
"I can't honestly say it was a goal, but I guess you always hope and dream," he said of sending three kids to Michigan. "It fell into place. I don't think you can ever draw it up.["]
John also said that Penn State "did everything right" in their recruitment of Jared, but that the difference with Michigan was simply that "it's Michigan." ('Fergodsakes' implied, surely.) Friday's events didn't just fulfill a dream for dad, of course; Jared told Scout's Josh Newkirk what the Michigan commitment means to him ($):
“I have been going to Michigan since I was a little kid,” Wangler told GoBlueWolverine. “So it was kind of like a dream come true. It was definitely really special to me. Especially, because I have the opportunity to play with my brother and with Shane (Morris), who is one of my best friends, and play where my dad played. I just think it’s a cool opportunity.”
Jared also heaped plenty of praise upon the Nittany Lions coaching staff, namely Bill O'Brien and Ron Vanderlinden ("two of the greatest guys I've ever met"), and said that Michigan was the only school that could sway him from his Penn State commitment.
Allen Trieu provides another scouting report on Wangler in the wake of his commitment ($):
At 6'1, 215-pounds, he's a kid who transitioned over from safety, but while he's not as big as some of the other linebackers we've seen in this class, Wangler is not afraid of contact. He does a nice job of taking on blockers and when he arrives at the ball carrier, he's a strong tackler who can deliver a strike. He's a smart, instinctive kid who keeps himself in good position, doesn't lose contain and does a good job of diagnosing plays quickly and using his ability to run to get to the ball carrier.
The big question about Wangler's ability to project to SAM, one of two positions where he might end up (the other being WILL), is whether he has the size and block-shedding ability required to take on that role; while he won't reach ideal SAM height, he's got the frame to add 20 or so pounds, and with his quickness and football IQ he could develop into a very viable edge player.
[Hit THE JUMP for the latest on Malik McDowell and Brian Cole, Scout unveiling their first 2015 five-stars, and more.]