From Portage Northern.
As expected, John Merrill has signed with the Devils:
Junior defenseman Jon Merrill has signed with the New Jersey Devils, voiding his final year of eligibility, TSN.com's Bob McKenzie is reporting this morning, and rookie blue liner Jacob Trouba might be next, though there is reason to believe he could return to Ann Arbor.
After a Lidstrom-like freshman year, Merrill was beset by personal issues and a broken vertebra this year. He never really recaptured the thrilling—subtly, anyway—puck possession game he displayed in year one, but after shaking off the rust this year he was a major part of Michigan's turnaround. His loss is pretty bad. Not that Michigan expected to get four years out of him anyway. If my apartment was on an Indian burial ground I'd probably be out, too.
Meanwhile, some guy on twitter hears Trouba will follow him. Spath is holding to his 60-40 stay prediction. Red's departure rage level remains at zero; he seems to think either guy is capable of playing in the big leagues next year.
Evan Allen update. Allen is regarded as something of an OHL flight risk after telling some guy on the internet he was keeping his options open earlier in the year. Some twitter chatter suggests he will indeed find his way to Yost:
Wearing #15 at Michigan next year, so excited to start a new chapter in my life in the fall with the maize and blue
Take it FWIW.
If the inevitable WTF departure is not Allen, something comical will befall someone else over the offseason. We should have a pool. I'm taking Zach Hyman, June 18th, vision quest ends with Hyman learning to fly and leaving for Tibet. I'm not good at pools.
There was a bit of trivia going around basketball circles last week that teams named after birds all won their first round games. That's true, but including Kansas makes that a bit of a factoid: a Jayhawk ain't no kind a' bird!
The veracity of this internet knowledge is unverified, but the term comes from just before the Civil War and one of many incredibly stupid compromises they tried to come up with over the great uncompromisable thing. When they couldn't decide whether Kansas would be entered as a free state or a slave state, Congress decided to leave that answer up to whoever could get more settlers in there (caveat: settlers must be alive enough to vote). In the most violent fan poll until the invention of the internet, people from both sides, but mostly northern anti-slavery folk (cause there was more of us) poured into Kansas.
The pro-slavery people, rather than graciously accept defeat, formed up bandit brigades along the Missouri border, hence the term "Border Ruffians," and tried to harass, rob, and murder their way to an electoral victory. In response, the new homesteaders formed up their own guerrilla groups. Possibly naming themselves after popular Revolutionary John Jay, these makeshift counter-terrorism bands became known as Jay-hawkers. They were celebrated across the freedom conference footprint, but quickly became just bandits for the other team instead of protectors.
Just as "Wolverines" became popularly associated with the hardy, stubborn, fierce Michigander regiments who took that as their mascot in the Civil War, the Kansas Union regulars popularized "Jayhawks" but real jayhawkers continued guerrilla attacks on rebel camps and Confederate homesteaders. The opposite were the "Bushwhackers," former border ruffians who robbed, burned and murdered under the rebel cause. And if you were an indiscriminate band of lawlessness in Kansas, you were a "Red Leg."
So what I'm saying is if there is some sort of ornithological protection spell over the 2013 NCAA Tournament, Kansas isn't under it.
How it works:
- I put up a winnable prize that consists of a desirable good.
- You guess the final scores of the designated game, and put it in the comments, preferably in the format of [M's Score]-[Opponent's Score]. First person to post a particular score has it.
- If you guess either game correctly, we contact you. If not, go to (5)
- The desirable good arrives at the address you give us.
- Non-winners can acquire the same desirable good by trading currency for it.
- Seriously, you don't have to actually guess a basketball score to get this shirt. You can buy it.
About Last Time:
How is it there's no footage on the internet of a Wolverine devouring a rabbit? Get on this David Attenborough. The Glove guessed 74-55, which is as close as anyone got to the 71-56 final score of the SDSU (NTSDSU nor TSDSU) game.
This Week's Game:
#4 seed Michigan versus #1 seed Kansas for a trip to the Elite 8.
And the Prize:
Stick around. We may learn something.
Fine print: One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (make it easy on me and write your score in digits with a hyphen between them. Deadline for entries is sometime within 24 hours before the start of the game—whenever I can get online in that time and lock the thread. MGoEmployees and Moderators exempt from winning because you can change scores. We did not invent the algorithm. The algorithm consistently finds Jesus. The algorithm is banned in China. The algorithm is from Jersey. The algorithm is not just a shooter. The algorithm always fouls Cody Zeller. The algorithm can’t explain why Big Ten officials think it’s their duty to help Bo Ryan. The algorithm spent 10 years as the Indiana of basketball, if that makes sense. This is not the algorithm. This is close.
- Chris Wormley has been cleared to do everything.
- Brennen Beyer is temporarily moving to SAM until Jake Ryan returns.
- Dymonte Thomas is practicing at corner and nickel.
“Well, how about our basketball team, huh? Golly.”
Are you happy they recruited Mitch McGary?
“Yes. No question about it. I already promised him he’d be a five-technique right away, and we’d get him a lot of sacks. No question about it. I love him. It’s funny -- I saw him one time the team was going to eat somewhere, I just happened to run into him when my wife and I were out. I had never stood next to him, and I just looked at him and all I kept thinking was ‘Wow, would he be good as a five-technique.’ ”
Appreciate + Reciprocate. The student organization that puts on the Appreciate + Reciprocate dinner has snagged Desmond Howard this year. Nice.
They're raising money for the LSA Emergency Student Aid Fund, which supports students facing unexpected financial crises at home.
Get yer tickets. Details:
Date: Friday, April 12, 2012
Location: Great Lakes Room, Palmer Commons
Speakers: Desmond Howard and others to be announced!
Time: Appetizers at 6:30, dinner served at 7:15, event conclusion at 9:30
Tickets (partially tax-deductible): $100 for individuals, $50 for recent graduates, $200 to sit with a speaker
Silent auction offerings will include items signed by Coach Hoke and Desmond Howard, a tour of the new Player Development Center with Assistant Coach Bacari Alexander, a skating lesson with US Olympian Emily Samuelson, and more.
Women play tonight. The women's basketball team has made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament for the first time in a while; they take on one-seed Stanford at 9:50 tonight on ESPN2. They're obviously the underdog; Swish Appeal has keys to the upset. It would be Michigan's first ever Sweet 16 on the women's side.
Yes, this is the same time as USA-Mexico. I get complaints whenever I mention soccer, so you guys who complain about soccer should watch the basketball.
Projected spring practice content levels drop 85%. What am I supposed to write about now that Brennen Beyer has been moved back to SAM? I can't write about someone moving to SAM… or can I?
Brennen Beyer could move to SAM.
This isn't working at all. Dammit. Wait a minute…
Mattison said the move is not permanent, and that Beyer likely will shuffle back to the line once Ryan returns.
BRENNEN BEYER COULD MOVE TO WDE BOOM
I thought you guys were short newshole. How many words do you think an article about John Beilein's relationship with his former equipment manager at LeMoyne would be? Where in the country would this article originate? When would this article be published?
Bafflingly, the answers to these questions are "one butt ton," "Syracuse, New York," and "not 1980; in fact, right now." What a country.
Merph. I have a powerful desire to stick my fingers in my ears and go LA LA LA LA whenever the topic of the NBA draft comes up and understand entirely if you do this while reading this section. Let's not dwell on the pointlessness of this operation.
Anyway, Trey Burke is destined for the top ten and everyone expects him to be gone. The news on Glenn Robinson III is the thing that keeps varying. He's gone from off the radar to hyped to less hyped and now the hype is returning:
"Robinson may have helped his draft stock more than anyone on our Big Board this week," Ford wrote. "He's still raw offensively and depends on (Trey) Burke to set him up, but he has all the physical tools of a NBA small forward and is showing increased confidence at the right time.
"Someone will roll the dice on him in the 10-to-20 range if he decides to declare."
I don't know man. I'd think NBA teams would want to see him develop into a guy who can create his own offense and defend NBA threes. Robinson is noncommital about returning.
Ford also talks up McGary as a potential second-round pick, which doesn't seem like much of a threat.
Hockey departure update. Red:
Berenson on Trouba: "We'll have to wait and see how that works out with Winnipeg. He's done as much as he can do for a freshman."
Berenson says he doesn't expect anybody else besides Merrill or Trouba to consider leaving, but that he's been surprised before.
That qualifies as good news, I think. Hopefully at least one of the two defensmen won't want to leave Michigan after that season.
Inside South Dakota State. Grantland was embedded with the Jackrabbits and their offensive desire to get Michigan instead of Michigan State:
Moments later, Michigan State is announced as the third seed, and a chorus of gasps echoes through the room. "Oh no," I hear a player say. "Oh no oh no oh no." Like the Baylor team that eliminated SDSU last year, the Spartans' strength is their frontcourt, and the Jackrabbits don't match up well against big, athletic front lines. Yet they are spared from the bruising that MSU's Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix would lay on them, and instead Valparaiso will face the Spartans.
When Gumbel reaches the South bracket, he announces that the 4-seed is Michigan. "I'll play Michigan," says Jordan Dykstra, a sweet-shooting big man and the Jacks' second-leading scorer. "Let's play Michigan." Gumbel announces the 13-seed. It's South Dakota State.
They'll play Michigan.
This would be better if it was VCU. The whole thing is worth a read in any case.
Swing, pendulum, swing. Michigan's VCU blowout has earned them a ton of cred with the talking heads that were generally dismissive just one week ago. All four of CBS's basketball writers go with Michigan in the KU-M matchup. Andy Staples picks Michigan to win the regional. Myron Medcalf of ESPN picks Michigan just behind Louisville in a re-seed of the teams. Goodman say Michigan was the most impressive team of the opening weekend, and Kenpom's computer says Michigan has a… uh. Oh. A 3.2 percent chance to win the whole thing. That's up from 1.9 percent, though. Sweet.
The problem there is being in the same region as a Florida team taking on FGCU in the other matchup, so if you think the computers are vastly overrating the Gators you can up your optimism accordingly.
Anyway, I'm more on the Kenpom side of things. Whereas before the tournament people were extrapolating that the OHIO upset would always happen forever now they're assuming the VCU dismantling will always happen forever. As a guy who thought Michigan had a great draw the first weekend I'm looking at the Kansas game as a coinflip at best.
I guess. It's looking like Northwestern will hire Duke assistant Chris Collins. He's from the Chicago area and has experience in the kind of circles that might send a kid to Northwestern but it seems like hiring an assistant when you have 200-some mid-major coaches to choose from is risky.
DANTONIO UPDATE: STILL DANTONIO. Someone probably asked him if he'd watched the VCU game.
Dantonio abruptly ends scheduled media interview after five minutes, 30 seconds. Questions were harmless. Bizarre.
Etc.: Scouting Kansas. Pat Forde complains about coaches' complaints when coaches get fired. I'm with him, though I do like seeing Tom Izzo collapse into the fetal position when asked about it. Michigan needs Russell Bellomy to be viable if they're going to redshirt Morris.
Denard signed the Shredder's photoshops. For the first time since 1979, no Michigan team will play in the NCAA hockey tourney. The Daily on Hunwick's rise and the end of the streak. Will Leitch is more understanding of referees than I am.
Today's recruiting roundup covers the latest on Jabrill Peppers, a new 2014 offer, visit reactions, and more.
Must-Read Of The Week: Jabrill Peppers Feature
NJ ATH Jabrill Peppers is a state champion, honor roll student, and five-star prospect, with every major program in the country in pursuit of his signature come Signing Day. Read ESPN's Jared Shanker's feature on Peppers and his childhood in East Orange, New Jersey, however, and you'll get an appreciation for just how much he had to overcome to reach that point. His older brother, Don Curtis, was murdered in 2010 at the age of 20. Jabrill could only talk to his father, imprisoned since 2007 for a weapons charge, by phone. Peppers told Shanker that the street life in East Orange nearly sucked him in, as well:
"Oh man, I've seen people get stabbed, shot, beat up," Peppers said. "Saw my boys steal cars then crash into a light pole, other things at night, seeing guys selling the illegal products."
But ask about specifics, some of the things he has taken part in, and he clams up. He answers quickly. That smile so many people love to talk about leaves his face. He wants to move on to the next question.
"Too much to name that I got away with because of my athleticism," Peppers said. "I don't want to say too much more on that, but too much that I'm ashamed with."
Peppers has moved on to star both on and off the field; a perennial honor student, he currently holds Stanford—with their rigorous academic standards even for athletes—as his leader. Michigan is currently in his top five, joined by LSU, Ohio State, and Notre Dame. Peppers says he is a long way from a decision; wherever he goes, he's a player who will be easy to root for.
[For the latest on Michigan's most recent offer, plus visit reactions and Drake Harris's newest visit plans, hit THE JUMP.]
mah depth perception noooo
One of the reasons I'm not too happy to get Kansas in the Sweet 16 is where the games will be played—Jerryworld—combined with Kansas's #1 strength—Jeff Withey going grrr aargh and depositing your shot in the eighth row. Domes have a reputation for being poor environments to shoot in. Meanwhile, the alternative to shooting is challenging this guy.
But just because something is supposed to be true does not mean it is so. Reasons are applied to random chance all the time. Does being in a dome really kill shooters? I wish I had an answer for you without painstakingly combing through every dome game in the NCAA tournament since forever. The data is thin, contradictory and oft-polluted by what can only be termed a journalist's approach to statistics. After googling every which way for any take on the subject, I've come out the other end possibly less informed than I started.
The best I've got: the WSJ published an article in 2011 that appears to be the most comprehensive tackling of the issue. It showed that from 1997-2011, Final Four teams hit 32% of their threes and 42% overall, both four-point drops from—ugh—the four FFs held before the dome came into vogue. Or we could take thousands of games of data instead of 12, WSJ. And maybe account for the fact that the three-point line moved back in 2008-09. Guh.
/shakes fist at journalism school
For what it's worth, Statsheet shows that three-point shooting held steady at around 34.8% from 2003 to 2008 and around 34.2% after the line moved back. I'd imagine tourney teams are on average slightly better than that, so 32% over 15 years represents a small but probably real negative effect that may or may not be caused by domes instead of various other factors that apply to Final Fours like your hand shaking nervously for an hour before the game. "Other factors" didn't impact 12 games almost 20 years ago, FWIW.
KSRCollege put together a chart covering the "open dome"—ie, court on the 50, not in one endzone—era the NCAA instituted in 2009. (It appears Jerryworld is configured with the court on the 50.) It found three point shooting averages dropped from 36% (for the season) to 32%, free throws from 73% to 67%, and eFG from 51% to 44%.
Caveats are rife. For one, the KSR post has a nine-game sample and the WSJ article is rage-inducingly sloppy. For two, some of these effects may be due to the level of competition. For three:
At first glance if you compare the season percentages to the in-game percentages you’d think that all teams are shooting poorer than their season percentages, but this is not the case. There are three severe outliers taking down the entire sample; 2011 UConn (twice) and 2009 Villanova. But, when you see their season percentages you’ll see Villanova was an average three point shooting team and UConn was a terrible three point shooting team, so it’s not hard to believe these two teams would have bad shooting nights. All other Final Four participants in the “Open Dome” era have shot right around their season percentage, so this leads me to believe that distorted sightlines have less to do with the low point totals than I originally thought.
While I'm not sure I agree with the idea that a poor shooting team will be more affected by the depth issues presented, at least this passage underscores the scanty amount of data we're working with.
Other poorly-assembled nine-game samples show no dome effect.
In 2009 and 2010, the NCAA used all three different setups to contest the eight regionals: regular basketball/hockey arenas; traditional domes, with the court set up in the corner of the football field, and the stadium configuration, with the court built on a platform at the center of the football field.
Here is how the shooting stats broke down in those games:
— Arenas (nine games): 42.8 percent, 455-of-1,064.
— Traditional domes (nine games): 43.1 percent, 444-of-1,030
— Stadium setup (six games): 42.4 percent, 290-of-684.
Essentially, there was no distinct statistical variation among the various types of courts.
This study is also tiny and doesn't even bother to separate out threes and free throws, instead hurling everything in one statpile ranging from dunks to prayer heaves. So it's far from definitive itself. Despite that, Mike DeCourcy appears to run it every year without bothering to update it and reference it whenever the topic comes up. No wonder he gets in fights with Kenpom.
Last year, teams didn't seem to have much problem. OSU, Louisville, and Kansas hit exactly 36% of their threes; Kentucky was at 38%. This is probably why there was a flurry of articles about shooting in a dome before that Final Four, but not after.
So. We have a pile of shifty data. Overall I'd suggest it suggests there is a small dome effect that hurts shooting based on the WSJ numbers, which are the closest thing to a real sample we've got. This is advantage Kansas, which takes relatively few threes and forces a lot thanks to Jeff Withey. Probably, anyway. The effect isn't big enough or solid enough to be fate.
Ugh. This post. Just like a younk man who thinks Standard Deviation is a Christian goth metal band coming in for a low-sample size study. I am zo unzatisfyed.