Mike Lantry, 1972
Previously: MSU From 1000 Feet
|WHAT||Michigan at Michigan State|
|WHERE||Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan|
|WHEN||7 pm Eastern, Saturday|
|LINE||MSU -5 (KenPom)|
|TV||ESPN/WatchESPN (PBP: Dan Shulman; Analyst: Dick Vitale)|
Right: Zack Novak, delightfully unhinged.
As has been covered here extensively, Michigan State is definitely without the services of power forward, rebounding terror, and excellent defender Branden Dawson (broken hand), and it's looking highly unlikely that center, athletic marvel, and inside/outside scoring threat Adreian Payne (plantar fasciitis) will be able to play at all—even if Payne gives it a go, his nagging foot injury should sap a lot of his effectiveness.
[UPDATE: Payne is officially ruled out, per ESPN's Jeff Goodman.]
Starting in their place will be 6'9" sophomore Matt Costello and 6'8" redshirt freshman Kenny Kaminski. Costello hits the offensive glass at a rate just above Payne; otherwise, this is a huge rebounding downgrade for MSU, as Kaminski is an okay offensive rebounder and almost-nonexistent defensive rebounder while Costello's DREB% is a full eight points lower than Payne's. Non-rebounding defense also takes a hit even with Costello's excellent shot-blocking. Kaminski isn't in the same league on that end as Dawson—look for Glenn Robinson III to attack early and test if Kaminski can stay in front of him.
State's offense also looks very different sans Payne and Dawson. Costello finishes at the rim at the exact same rate as Payne (69%) but far more of his looks inside are assisted; while Payne provides excellent outside shooting, Costello is 0/7 this season on shots outside the paint. Dawson takes over 75% of his shots at the rim, many on putbacks or in transition; Kaminski is a pure spot-up shooter, shooting 17/31 from three this season while attempting just eight twos. Brian covered the other options up front in his 1000-foot view:
[Gavin] Schilling, Costello, and [Alex] Gauna are all the same guy. This guy is 6'9", has usage in the Matt Vogrich range, fouls a lot, and gets rebounds. The most notable statistical outliers are a bunch of blocks from Costello and the fact that Schilling is on pace to foul out in 18 minutes, should he get that much PT.
6'7 shooting-specialist-who-can't-really-shoot Russell Byrd could also see a few minutes, though his impact should be minimal; he's played nine minutes in Big Ten play and put up a five trillion in his last outing.
Expect 6'5" wing Denzel Valentine to also get some run at the four, especially since he's a very good defensive rebounder for his size. Valentine is the guy most likely to give Tom Izzo an aneurysm of the non-leadership variety; he makes a lot of Sportscenter-caliber plays—especially with slick passes—and offsets a lot of those with hilariously dumb turnovers. He's not a very good finisher around the basket and isn't a quality shooter, either—his shooting splits are 44%/30%/71% with a low free throw rate. He does his best work as both a passer and finisher in transition; in halfcourt sets he's much less effective.
If you're getting the impression I've buried the lede, you would be correct. Michigan State's two best healthy players are senior point guard Keith Appling and sophomore wing Gary Harris. Healthy is a relative term here—Appling is playing through a wrist injury that appears to be affecting his shooting and ballhandling. Despite this, he's playing the best basketball of his career, shooting far better than ever before (49%/42%/72% with a high FT rate) and keeping his assist rate up while cutting down on turnovers.
Harris, meanwhile, has become a more efficient scorer while taking on a bigger role despite a big dropoff in his three-point shot (33% compared to 41% last season, though he's back up to a 41% clip in Big Ten play, best in the conference). He's done this by more frequently getting to the line, where he shoots 84%, and hitting 54% of his two-pointers—as UMHoops points out, he's getting a lot of points off of screens:
Harris has improved his efficiency when catching the ball off screens by 31% and he’s even using a few more screens. He’s also using significantly more ball screens this season. Just 11% of his offensive possessions were ball screens (including passes) last season, despite the fact that he was fairly efficient. He’s doubled that usage this season while making a modest improvement in his efficiency. Harris is the Spartans most efficient ball screen player by a wide margin.
Luke Winn highlighted this in his latest power rankings; Michigan State runs Harris off a variety of screens, much like how Michigan frees up Nik Stauskas:
Harris went off in his last two games, scoring 23 points (5/5 2-pt, 2/4 3-pt, 7/10 FT) against Illinois and 24 (4/7, 4/6, 4/4) against his home state squad Indiana. He's averaging 18.3 points and hasn't scored fewer than 13 in Big Ten play. Harris is also the team's best perimeter defender—it's a safe bet he'll be the one guarding Stauskas.
The Spartans feature just two perimeter bench players who see remotely significant time. 6'0" junior Travis Trice is a three-point specialist shooting 42% from beyond the arc, one percentage point better than his two-point rate on 11 more attempts; expect Spike Albrecht to see most of his time when Trice is on the floor. 6'4" freshman Alvin Ellis has attempted just 24 shots in 135 minutes this season while committing 11 turnovers; he could be pressed into more extensive action due to the need for Valentine to play more up front.
Michigan State is 18-1 (7-0 B1G) with their only blemish a surprising 14-point home defeat at the hands of #46 North Carolina, a loss that's looked worse and worse as the season has progressed, especially since the Spartans had their full complement of players in that one. The Spartans do boast an solid list of quality wins: #16 Kentucky and #43 Oklahoma on neutral sites, a blowout at #45 Texas, and an overtime triumph at Breslin over #18 Ohio State (though that win has lost a lot of its luster).
They've also allowed some less-than-stellar teams to hang with them at Breslin: #99 Columbia led them at halftime, #104 Portland was just four points back at the break, and the Spartans needed a late second-half run to dispatch Indiana in their most recent game.
Now that we're partway into conference play, I'll start posting four factors charts for all the games and Big Ten games only, with sample size issues obviously coming into play on the latter for a while.
Four factors, all games (national ranks in parentheses):
|eFG%||Turnover %||Off. Reb. %||FTA/FGA|
|Offense||54.2 (30)||16.4 (61)||32.8 (141)||35.3 (283)|
|Defense||43.7 (16)||20.0 (86)||27.5 (30)||34.1 (56)|
Conference-only (seven games, Big Ten ranks in parentheses):
|eFG%||Turnover %||Off. Reb. %||FTA/FGA|
|Offense||51.8 (4)||17.5 (8)||32.3 (6)||37.4 (7)|
|Defense||44.6 (2)||21.1 (2)||26.8 (3)||37.5 (7)|
As you can see, this wasn't a vintage Izzo offensive rebounding team even before their best player in that regard (Dawson) removed himself from the equation. MSU has been subpar at generating points inside the arc—they're sixth in the B1G in 2-pt shooting, ninth in percentage of points via two-pointers, and ninth in percentage of points on free throws—but have made up for a lot of that with stellar three-point shooting (39.1%, tops in the conference).
The defense ranks first in efficiency in conference play thanks to excellent two-point defense bolstered by a ridiculous 20.3% block rate (1st in B1G) and the conference's highest steal rate. Like Iowa, they've been fortunate in three-point defense—the Spartans are 290th nationally in 3PA/FGA yet 60th in 3-pt% against. Their interior defense should suffer from the lack of Dawson and Payne, which could also open things up outside.
Run them off the line. The Spartans have become heavily three-point reliant, ranking first in the Big Ten in percentage of points generated beyond the arc, and they'll be even more perimeter-oriented with Kaminski replacing much of Dawson's minutes at the four. Aside from Harris, and to a lesser extent Costello, none of their healthy regulars are very good finishers at the rim. Michigan can afford to close out hard and force MSU to try and keep up with two-pointers, especially now that they're missing a good deal of their offensive rebounding.
Work the high screens. This is going to happen no matter what with Michigan—hey, Nik Stauskas is really good at these!—and it could be emphasized even more in this game as they try to lure Costello, an excellent shot-blocker, away from the rim and hopefully even get him into foul trouble. If Costello has to sit for any length of time, MSU lacks a rim protector and either must go with a very foul-prone replacement, whether that be Gauna or Schilling, or play significantly undersized with Valentine at the four.
Take care of the ball. Michigan State gets out in transition even more than Iowa—35.2% of their shots come in the first ten seconds of the shot clock, per hoop-math—and while they aren't as efficient on the break as the Hawkeyes they're still dangerous. Harris has a top-75 steal rate, Trice sits just outside the top 100, and Valentine can be a ball-hawk, too; Caris LeVert, especially, is going to have to play more carefully or Michigan will cede some very easy buckets.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan State by 5
WHAT'S THAT YOU SAY ABOUT KENPOM NOT ACCOUNTING FOR DAWSON AND PAYNE BEING OUT I CAN'T HEAR YOU LALALALALALALALALALA
I mentioned it a bit above, but [the front line] will be a weakness Michigan will want to exploit. That doesn't mean straight posting up, but ifor a point guard can penetrate, it will open a lot of options. Stauskas looks so good in this role, either going to the hoop, pulling up or dishing to a big man. This will be the biggest key to MSU's defense. In the last two years, MSU has defended U-M's ball screens well, but, if Payne is gone, it leaves big men who don't have much experience with it. MSU's defense struggled with the penetration against Indiana.
UNIMPORTANT ASIDE: Big Ten refs are… trying. The over and back rule requires both the ball and your entire body to be across the line to kick in.
lolver and back
Anyway. On to the Titanic Matchup Of Teams Missing Key Large Persons.
It really does not seem like Payne is going to play. Joe Rexrode keeps assuring everyone that this is not a mind game being played by Izzo so Payne can storm out of the locker room Willis Reed-style. For one:
Rexrode: on Adreian Payne, "he's doing nothing [in practice]... I think it's very unlikely he'll play, and may not play for a few weeks."
I was under the erroneous impression that Payne's thing was an ankle issue; it is instead the nasty and persistent plantar fasciitis.
Even if Payne does dress, having missed so much practice time would leave him rusty and out of shape, matched up against a guy who just loves to run the floor for buckets. I know it's hard to believe MSU will leave the guy on the bench, but despite that it seems like the thing to do is look at this game like he's not available.
Kaminski and Costello step into starting roles.
Meet the new frontcourt, then. State has four large persons available for their frontcourt spots: junior Alex Gauna, sophomore Matt Costello, and freshmen Kenny Kaminski and Gavin Schilling. Kaminski is the only one with any sort of perimeter game* and is likely to get all of his minutes at the 4; the other three guys will split 40 minutes at the 5 and there may be some sections of the game where two are out there.
We discussed Kaminski a bit yesterday: he's 6'8" and sits in the corner hitting threes on offense. That's about all he does; his 6.5 DREB rate is in the Nnanna Egwu realm, and while you would expect that to uptick in the absence of Dawson, Kaminski is usually replacing him and most of his playing time has come recently, with Payne out.
Schilling, Costello, and Gauna are all the same guy. This guy is 6'9", has usage in the Matt Vogrich range, fouls a lot, and gets rebounds. The most notable statistical outliers are a bunch of blocks from Costello and the fact that Schilling is on pace to foul out in 18 minutes, should he get that much PT.
Finally, MSU will probably check out a lineup with 6'5" Denzel Valentine at the 4, because Kaminski isn't going the whole way and Valentine provides offense none of the tall guys do.
*[For those that remember the early MSU blitz of Michigan targets in the class that eventually became Stauskas/LeVert/Albrecht/McGary/Robinson, this is an inversion of expectation. Kaminski was the one guy Beilein did not offer and Costello was supposed to be the Beilein-style skilled post who can take threes.]
Goodbye to all boards. Well, not all boards. But lots. When Michigan meets Michigan State, Michigan gets murdered on the boards. The last two years:
2012-13 @ Breslin: M gives up 14 OREB, a 37% rate, loses by 23.
2012-13 @ Crisler: M gives up 19(!) OREB, a 50% rate, wins by one despite hitting zero three pointers. How in the hell did they win that game?
2011-12 @ Breslin: M gives up 12 OREB, a 48% rate, loses by ten.
2011-12 @ Crisler: M gives up 9 OREB, a 36% rate, wins by 1.
In most of these games Michigan responded to this blizzard of second chances with two or three OREBs of their own. It has been an enormous blowout for MSU in this department for four straight games, and it's a miracle Michigan pulled out the two home games by one point despite the bombing. MSU went into each game expecting a massive possession advantage and got it.
A repeat was already looking less likely this year as MSU exchanged Derrick Nix for Denzel Valentine. MSU's OREB rate on the season—one accumulated against a number of tiny nonconference opponents and mostly with the services of Payne and Dawson—is a pedestrian 141st nationally, a big drop from top-50 output the last two years.
Now with Dawson and Payne out MSU has lost more than half of their putback attempts on the year—35 of their 62. The rest of MSU's rebounding numbers are deflated by Dawson and Payne picking up so much of that responsibility, but I think the expectation going in here is that this should be an even matchup. Dawson's OREB rate is elite; they're replacing him with guys who don't provide even half of what he does; they were already just average.
They can D, probably. MSU's defense is tenth in Kenpom and when you click over to just the conference stats they leap to first thanks to huge block and TO rates and excellent two-point defense. Then you look at their schedule.
Big ten offenses come in bands this year.
ELITE: Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin are in the top five.
REAL GOOD: MSU and Minnesota are 26th and 16th, respectively.
GRIM: Penn State is the only other top 100 offense in the league and they're at 88th; OSU, Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, and Indiana follow, ranging down to 161st.
NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats are 325th.
MSU has played only teams in the grim zone save one against Minnesota in which they gave up 75 points in a 73-possession OT game. Michigan is on a whole different level from MSU opposition so far, leading the league by five points in eFG%.
And they're now shooting. Previously-reliable bricklayer Keith Appling was 25% from three as a sophomore and 32% as a junior; now he's at 43%. This is the major change in his game from a year ago; he has also incrementally improved his A:TO ratio. That plus Travis Trice and Kaminski's blazing introduction has seen them hit nearly 40% of their threes in Big Ten play, and that seems like a more realistic number than their season average given the increased prominence Kaminski will have going forward.
They still don't take a ton of threes—they are Michigan State, after all—but this is going to look like a four-out-one-in offense that will be extremely disorienting to MSU fans.
Gary Harris is kind of good. Surprise! He's more of a shooter than Stauskas is these days, with more than half of his shots from behind the line. He's only hitting 33%, though. Harris is also their best perimeter defender and can expect to draw Stauskas duty, at least until he picks up a foul. I don't think Izzo wants to match up a foul magnet like Stauskas up against his most critical offensive player all night.
The State of Our Thing With State. Since the Rose Bowl there's been a palpable "I don't wanna talk about it" feel on the board with regard to the in-state rival. The coaching carousel came and went without whisking Narduzzi or Dantonio to someplace that doesn't have polar vortexes every other week, and the latest is they're the presumed leader for McDowell, which would be exactly the kind of straight-up, in-state recruiting win they haven't had yet vs. Hoke.
During the conference makeover meetings last fall—you know, where the principles were told to make divisions that keep the rivalries intact but were not allowed to do the obvious thing and leave Rutgers and Maryland out of it—MSU successfully lobbied to host our game on even years, which is going to be incredibly annoying when Minnesota is our most interesting home game, and even more annoying when we have to visit East Lansing a second season in a row. That after the coldest, wettest, darkest, most miserable sporting event in human history, when all good things in the world—Michigan's season, your soul, Gardner's ribs, etc.—were obliterated, and the trolls pranced around the parking lot shouting MLive comments to each other, and it was called wisdom.
|I expect they'll show up with "You were worked" t-shirts tomorrow. How dumb are Michigan's slogan t-shirts? They make the Izzone seem clever.|
At Michigan State they teach that insolence is the highest form of expression. The last time we played them at Breslin the Izzone showed up with the perfect mockery of those arrogant shirts Adidas made during the non-conference sweep. And if that message didn't put the Fightin' Dave Brandons in our place, an all-encompassing 75-52 exposure did the trick. Until then Michigan's losses on the season were a couple of close-ish, badly officiated, bad-luck-sort affairs at OSU, Indiana, and, just three days earlier, Wisconsin.
Some people called the blowout in East Lansing a Tuesday-turnaround throwaway and moved on; these people are not surrounded by Spartans every day of their lives. For me, if it had rained freezing water droplets containing bits of Gardner's sternum rather than Gary Harris three-pointers, it wouldn't have felt much different.
Of course the last time we played in basketball was March 3rd at Crisler, when Stauskas bleeding profusely from Branden Dawson's elbow promised to be your lasting image of the season. Then Trey Burke pilfered one, and scored, and slapped the floor, and then stole another to seal a one-point victory, and burned a completely different set of images onto our memories.
This week their QB recruit from Cass Tech (whom a year ago a lot of people on the board wanted to be our QB recruit) bodyslammed one of his high school security guards. And we played their mediocre hockey team last night at the Joe, and won 2-1 on PDG's goal at 17:42 in the 3rd, and had a posbang thread for it. These are small things, yet received greater attention because the horrific events of late 2013 are still fresh.
Their basketball team started as everybody's favorite 1-seed, and is currently No. 3 in the nation. But that's just because the last guys they called No. 3 got knocked off at home by the same Michigan team that visits on Saturday. LSA says Michigan's shooting the lights out since conference play began. Brian says because we beat Iowa and Wisconsin that tomorrow is house money. I'm telling you it doesn't feel like that.
More Best of the Board
SIGNS OF OUR TIMES
College Gameday will be at Breslin tomorrow, and that means a thread to brainstorm ideas for signs. Some good 'uns:
- "I DON'T PARTICULARLY CARE FOR YOU PEOPLE"
- "EAST LANSING IS A WOMAN OF NEGOTIABLE AFFECTION" (r.i.p. MGoShirt)
- "SAY 'NOT JUST A SHOOTER!'"
- "QUEME LOS BARCOS; QUEME LOS SOFAS" (r.i.p. other MGoShirt)
- "BEAT STAEE"
- "THIS SIGN GOT INTO MICHIGAN BUT CHOSE TO GO TO STATE"
- "MSU MATH: TWO OF SIX = DOMINATING"
- "LET'S ARGUE ABOUT WHO WAS BORN FIRST"
IF YOU SPONSOR, WE WILL COME
We finally did some live events last year and every one turned out better than my expectations. I've been chatting with several former players with charities worth getting together for. Anyway I'd like to do these again this year and am open to venue suggestions, either in cities with a large contingent of MGoReaders over the summer (not New York or D.C. since we already do those), or at football away games. Mostly I need somebody on the ground in your town, or a connection to a company who'd like to sponsor these in various places across their footprint so we can keep them free.
ETC. Discussion on Walton's defense. Guy who met Fran McCaffery obviously didn't do so during a basketball game. Detroit Lions get a t-shirt for participation (this was a Bears fan's job but replace the kitten with Bubbles and I'd wear it to Ford Field totally). Michigan's new president is being announced right now. Morgan appreciation. Burke eviscerating the Pistons #FIREDUMARS. Brandon Brown recruiting updates on QBs Nick Johns and Jarrett Stidham, and RB Johnny Frasier. Hart changes directions. Preferred walk-on commit (kicker/punter).
Your Moment of Zen:
The ineffable lightness of McGary. Via UMHoops, Mitch McGary and Jon Horford have different opinions about things.
Did they play an Adam Sandler movie on the court at some point? Because this is how that would work out.
One in, one out. Injury news for this weekend's state game is a rollercoaster. First, Adriean Payne tells Facebook that he's been cleared to play Saturday. Then:
BREAKING: Branden Dawson breaks his hand, will be out four to five week. Heading to surgery soon.
— State News Sports (@thesnews_sports) January 23, 2014
How did he acquire this injury?
Dawson says he was watching TV clips this morning with the team and got frustrated, slammed hand against table, suffering injury.
— Joe Rexrode (@joerexrode) January 23, 2014
Dude. Just lie. Say you got it caught in a thresher or something. This is not the time for honesty.
Dawson is a beast on the offensive glass and an efficient finisher off putbacks and dumpoffs but not a lot of State's offense ran through him. If Payne is full go and mobile by Saturday I'd guess they play him at the four, which he did plenty of last year with Nix around, and go with Costello and Gauna at the five.
State's other option is to play a lot of Kenny Kaminski. Kaminski is a redshirt freshman stretch four who is Just A Shooter™, with 31 3PAs vs 8 twos attempted on the year. He is hitting 55% of his threes, so, yeah, check him hand in the face etc. Kaminski doesn't have enough playing time to definitely say much about him but from appearances he's not in Dawson's class as a defender or rebounder.
Either way, MSU gets more shooting and less defense on the floor without Dawson.
Meanwhile for Michigan. If you're concerned about the prospect of Appling going up against Spike, it sounds like Walton will be just fine by Saturday:
Beilein said that Walton had a high temperature and flu-like symptoms, so there was uncertainty about how much he could play and contribute.
“He got to see the doctor and kept him away from everybody all day, so he didn’t even go to practice or see the game plan,” Beilein said. “The fever broke and he felt good today, enough to at least give us a minute or two. Spike was fine and I’m really pleased with the way he played.”
Again, if Walton is still a bit shaky Michigan can get away with Spike on Travis Trice whenever he's out there, which could keep Walton's minutes down to about 20 if necessary.
Grantland breaks us down. Shane Ryan on the unnoticeable slowness of Michigan's offense:
… unlike other plodding offenses, it never really looks like Beilein’s teams are taking their time. The reason for that is the Wolverines are astoundingly efficient, year after year, to the point that every possession takes on a rhythm and purpose of its own. And the results are so continually positive that there’s drama and anticipation in the lead-up; while teams like Wisconsin (no. 300 in Division I tempo) and Virginia (333) can suck the life out of a game with their effective control of pace, and others like Clemson (348) and Miami (dead last at 351) are clearly taking their time because they have no other option, Beilein’s offenses are so fluid and effective that they retain their sense of drama. Michigan is slow, but never boring.
Also, Stauskas highlights:
And with Michigan's resurgence comes the candy that is Luke Winn saying something interesting about you in his power rankings:
The Wolverines' Nik Stauskas-led offense has an adjusted efficiency of 120.1 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third nationally ... and is pretty much just as efficient as it was last season, when it scored 120.3 points/100 possessions.
They check in ninth, up from 31st(!) last week. It has been a good week.
Chad Ford don't fail me now. Chad Ford's latest mock draft($) for ESPN has zero Wolverines in the first round. Yes, NBA GMs. You are getting very sleepy. You are agreeing with Chad Ford in every way. You have completed your scouting for the season.
FWIW, Stauskas downplayed his dad's quote from the SI article:
“I apologize for my father’s comments,” he said Wednesday. “He doesn’t know what he’s talking about. I haven’t really thought anything about that yet. We’ll just address it after the season.”
I know he's got to say what he's got to say; the dad comment seems like a moment of unguarded honesty. We'll see where he's projected; if it's the first round I imagine he's out.
Mixed reports on Schofield. Mike Schofield's at the Senior Bowl this week trying to establish his draft bonafides. After a couple days moving back to guard didn't seem to go well, they've put him back at his natural position, where he has impressed:
"Not a highly acclaimed kid; a late add [to the roster]," Mayock said. "I thought he stoned everybody in the [1-on-1] drill. Now, he's a right tackle only, in my opinion. They tried him at guard. Right tackle only is not a good thing to be in the NFL unless you're a starter. I think he has the potential to be a starting right tackle."
You can look at this as affirmation that Darrell Funk can develop offensive linemen or further condemnation of Michigan's OL last year as you so desire.
But where is the part where he rescues a bus full of kittens? MLive profiles Andrew Copp:
Copp’s 3.2 G.P.A. wasn’t quite good enough for admission into the business school, so he worries about what lies in store in the future, even if it does include a stop in the NHL. He also said he at times feels at a disadvantage in the classroom.
“I study a lot, but when we have games and practice, some of these kids are still studying the whole time,” Copp says with a palpable stress in his voice. “When there’s a lot of readings in particular, other students don’t have a five or six hour block and weekends taken up by games where they have the opportunity to study.”
That's confidence in a kid: letting a reporter follow him around for a day.
Etc.: Dave Brandon sent around empty planes during the most recent coaching search. I think that means we win. Tom Izzo being histrionic? Never. Sports are supposed to be fun, and Richard Sherman is that. Sacks are lies.
Damien Harris Fallout: Back In It For Mike Weber?
2015 five-star RB Damien Harris decommitted from Michigan this week. After Al Borges—his primary recruiter—was fired, Harris decided he needed to take a step back and explore his options, though his mother says Michigan is still on top, per Sam Webb ($):
“The reason he came to this decision is he felt like when he committed, at the time, we felt like it was the right decision even though it was early,” she explained. “Months later he has been thinking and thinking, ‘I didn’t really go and look at other places probably like I should have. I didn’t consider other places like I should have.’ Even though Michigan is #1, and that hasn’t changed, he just wants to make sure he doesn’t have any regrets when he gets ready to enroll. He just wants to make sure that he didn’t leave any stone unturned and wants to make sure he didn’t miss out on anything, even though he knows Michigan is still his #1. That’s all. He is just making sure that if he was to visit other places, he wasn’t going to regret not taking the full experience.”
Meanwhile, a certain despicable portion of the fanbase* isn't helping Michigan's cause. Harris has taken a lot of heat on Twitter for his decommitment and his coach told TomVH that could be a factor in his ultimate decision ($):
“People need to back off of him [on Twitter]. He’s a 16-year-old kid. People are attacking him on there,” [Madison Southern coach Jon] Clark said. “You have grown men who are way out of line, and Michigan fans better ease up or they’re going to push him away from Michigan. The coaches aren’t; the fans are.
“The only impact a fan ever has on a kid is a negative one; that’s it. There’s not a fan out there that has a positive impact on this kid.”
To state the blitheringly obvious: DON'T DO THIS. I realize/hope this doesn't apply to 99% of you, but nothing you're going to do as a fan—positive or negative, in person or on social media—is going to make a positive difference in a prospect's recruitment. Leave the recruiting to the coaches and, as a general life rule, leave harassing high school students to... nobody. Nobody should do that.
Anyway, with Harris opening up his recruitment, Michigan has rekindled their interest in 2015 four-star Cass Tech RB Mike Weber, per GBW's Josh Newkirk ($):
“I talked with (Nussmeier) for a half-hour on the phone. He is real excited about recruiting me,” Weber told GoBlueWolverine. “He told me it was crazy that Michigan stopped recruiting me. So when he got there he was telling me how he really wanted me (at Michigan). It made me open my eyes back up to Michigan.
“Michigan is back on the radar.”
Weber named a top five of Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Tennessee (in no particular order); the Spartans and Vols have been the presumed favorites for a while now, though the renewed Michigan interest could change that. It didn't take long for Weber to recipricate that interest, too—he was the only prospect in attendance at last night's Iowa game, which he seemed to appreciate. Whether or not things work out with Harris, Weber would be a great addition to the class; he's been very productive against solid competition for the last two years and looks great on film.
[Hit THE JUMP for the latest on Malik McDowell, new 2015 offers—including a long-awaited one to a California DE—the final Rivals250, and more.]
1/22/2014 – Michigan 75, Iowa 67 – 14-4, 6-0 Big Ten
If this was a miss, it was his only one. [Bryan Fuller]
Jordan Morgan is old. Not human old. He is ZZ Top Beard old. He's columns about Richard Sherman old. He's archeology old. He's Seven Nation Army old. He has shale and fossilized invertebrates and a layer of iridium in him.
You think I am exaggerating for effect. I am not. Jordan Morgan committed to Michigan on December 18th, 2007. This is what Jordan Morgan and Miley Cyrus looked like then.
Michigan had not been to the NCAA tournament since Robert Traylor was around.
Jordan Morgan is older than the sea. It is not out of the question that Jordan Morgan impacting the earth was the genesis of life itself.
Morgan was in fact the first guy John Beilein recruited to Michigan who wasn't a late scramble pickup.
Ben Cronin and Stu Douglass preceded him chronologically but were in the 2008 transitional class that, like most transitional classes, gave off the aura of "random tall passerby, here is a scholarship." Douglass was pirated from Harvard, Cronin from… hey, a Beilein offer at West Virginia. When those guys signed on Beilein was looking for bodies he could mold.
Morgan was not one of those guys. Morgan was recruited way early, on purpose. He committed three months before Zack Novak did. Remember Zack Novak? Guy with the bulging forehead comprised entirely of veins and leadership who had a pathological inability to not try his hardest at everything he'd ever considered doing? Guy who is now two years gone from the program? Yeah. That guy. Morgan beat him to the punch by three months.
Jordan Morgan is a million years old. This is how old Jordan Morgan is: Michigan sucked at basketball when he signed up.
This is no longer the case. (Someone tell the official site.) Last night, Michigan went toe to toe with a top ten opponent and came out on top… again. Since Novak's Aneurysm of Leadership, Michigan is 39-14 in the Big Ten. Morgan played 24 minutes in that game, because he is 1,000 years old.
And yes, Michigan's stormed through the last three years of Big Ten basketball on the shoulders of NBA first-rounders past and future. This latest victory was largely thanks to Nik Stauskas playing like a guy Joe Dumars will gleefully pass over in the upcoming NBA draft. (If he even gets an opportunity to do so.) But underneath Stauskas's very obvious boggling efficiency there are other boggling efficiencies to consider.
Historically, the Jordan Morgan prediction matrix has been a simple one. If he is playing against a guy approximately his size, he will have a good game. If he is playing against a seven-footer or guy who plays like one by jumping real high, he will be invisible save for good positional defense. That matrix has been taking efficient shot after efficient shot in this Big Ten season; yesterday it finally toppled over.
Here is Morgan's stat line from Michigan's game against the biggest team in the conference: 5/6 from 12, 2/3 from the line, 12 points, 7 rebounds, 2 offensive rebounds by guys he is checking. He kept Horford stapled to the bench, and it wasn't anything Horford (eight minutes, 3 rebounds, 0 FGA, 0 TO) was doing. He was just the best option. The matrix is collapsed in a heap like a security guard around a Michigan State quarterback recruit.
At some point it doesn't matter if Morgan's shots are largely provided on platters by Stauskas, LeVert, and company. Bunnies get missed. Sometimes dunks fly right back out of the basket. Large gentlemen deposit your shot into the stands. I think that point has been reached, because I was checking out Aaron White's numbers and found something familiar in them. If you've been around this site for a while you know that Aaron White is an MGoBlog fave-rave, because he is maniacally, spectacularly efficient. Well…
- WHITE TRUE SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: 71.5, #2 nationally
- MORGAN TS%: 71.3, would be #3 if Morgan was at 40% of Michigan's minutes.
White's usage numbers are higher, but not by that much. The only guy who's putting up more points per shot attempt is one Ethan Wragge, who you may remember from such games as…
Ethan Wragge at the half: 24 points, 0 dribbles
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) January 21, 2014
Creighton: avoid at all costs.
It would be something if Morgan had his numbers as a jumping jack who can fling things in the basket from above it, like Glenn Robinson III. Since he is not, it is something else. You'd say it's impossible for a below-the-rim guy like Morgan to be so ruthless except for the numbers staring you in the face.
71%. It's there, on paper, looking back at you just as confused as you are. I am not supposed to be this large, it whispers. Tell me there is a theoretical maximum. Please. Yes, Jordan Morgan shooting percentage, yes. You will not grow and grow until you engulf the state and then the nation. It is axiomatically impossible. This is good for both you and the Big Ten, because without that there's no telling what the combination of Stauskas, Beilein, and Morgan might end up at. It might be a number so big it could describe Morgan's metaphorical age.
The imposition of style. Over the past few years there have been teams that try to speed Michigan up or turn them over or press them and they've all failed. Add Iowa to that list. Here's quite a stat in an eight-point Michigan win: Michigan had 12 fast break points to Iowa's 4.
Meanwhile. 66 possessions is a little faster than Michigan generally goes… and way, way off Iowa's normal tempo. That is a comprehensive win.
And they didn't sacrifice offensive rebounds. It seemed like the boards were going to be a major sore spot both pregame and in the first eight minutes as Melsahn Basabe went nuts, but by the end of the game Iowa had been battled to a standstill. Both teams had 10 OREBs; Michigan had one additional opportunity to grab one. Shutting off transition and still grabbing 30% of available offensive boards is quite a trick.
Spike! Dang, man. 35 minutes with Walton sidelined with the flu, and the results are seven points, three boards, seven assists, four steals, and zero turnovers. The second-half steals were all quickly converted into fast-break points and two of them broke up attempted Iowa fast breaks themselves; in particular, the clean swipe that led to an Irvin transition three to push Michigan's lead back to seven was a play that should come with an exclamation point in the box score. That was a five point swing and about 3.5 of those were Spike's, with the remainder going to Irvin.
Michigan was fortunate that Walton was sidelined for a game against a point guard Spike could check. Mike Gesell is just not a volume shooter. Even so, Michigan probably came out better than the expected in that matchup: Gesell was just two of four from the floor with two assists and a turnover.
I don't think anyone has any illusions that Spike is going to be able to guard Appling without fire raining from the sky, so it'll be important to get Walton back for Saturday. Travis Trice does play 18 minutes a game, though, and Albrecht can deal with him.
Yet another of Stauskas's 34 bricks on the night [Fuller]
Stauskas. Crushingly disappointing performance from a player who will never live up to his potential and SHOULD DEFINITELY BE IGNORED BY THE NBA FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE YEAR.
are they gone, the scouts?
So… yeah… wow. That ball-on-a-string assist where he crossed White over twice and then plunged through two help defenders before feeding Morgan was a bittersweet symphony right there. Hooray: that guy plays for Michigan. Oh no: he's not going to be around much longer.
Might as well ride him as long as you can. At this point it's barely worth mentioning that he was ludicrously efficient except when left wide open from his favorite spot in the world. 26 points on 17 shot attempts, five assists, and I'll-take-it defense against Aaron White. Nik Stauskas.
It is going to be really disappointing when Michigan finally finds itself without an alpha dog who can drive them through tough moments, but what a run: Morris, Burke, Stauskas. The series of defiant lip curlers who have passed through Ann Arbor of late is amazing.
What do we think of Iowa's three point defense now? On the one hand, Michigan was only 8 of 27. On the other, did it really seem like Iowa had much of anything to do with that? They got some hands in faces but no more or less than any other team and it seemed like Michigan was mostly hitting the hard ones and missing the easy ones, Stauskas in particular.
Aside from late-clock chucks, most three pointers are the same catch and shoot quality, and I don't think Iowa has anything special to them that prevents opponents from hitting from deep.
Warming up. Zak Irvin returned from deep freeze to provide a much-needed shooting spark in the second half, hitting 3 of 7 from three and even venturing inside the line for a transition bucket. We have photographic evidence.
A palpable two pointer [Fuller]
His usefulness was much more obvious against a team like Iowa that gives up a bunch of threes; previously he was forced to sit in the corner with a guy on him against Wisconsin, et al.
At least he's there, forcing people to check him. Have you seen an Indiana game this year? It's ugly. The only guy who can shoot at all is Yogi Ferrell, and he's their main creator. The result is a lot of possessions where opponents pack the paint with impunity and the second-worst offense in the league.
I don't know what it is with both Indiana teams, but they've apparently decided to stop recruiting shooters. You're in Indiana! You can't throw a basketball without knocking over a 5'11" white dude who does nothing but hit 45% from deep for four years. You should take advantage of this opportunity instead of recruiting gentlemen who give themselves a self-high-five when they hit the backboard.
Late subs. I was confused late when Beilein kept swapping Morgan for Horford on made second free throws, and then it became apparent: by switching the centers, Michigan gave themselves plenty of time to get set defensively so Iowa could not get the whisper of a transition chance afterwards.