On the roundtable this week:
- I get a sick burn about Craig in after he went at me hard last week
- People are still calling in with highly unlikely scenarios about that last play
- I'm like let's move along
- Nope, no moving along
- Probably because it's a bye week
THE USUAL LINKS
Hello. This is an attempt to give you a 1,000 foot view of Michigan's current recruiting class. It lives as a wiki post under the "Useful Stuff" heading as well, and can be updated by anyone with 500+ points.
not eligible sry [Patrick Barron]
We assume Michigan will go to 28.
Michigan has 16 open spots right now plus three specialists who may be on one of those "you get the first spot that opens up" kind of deals. In addition there are 2-4 guys who probably won't get fifth years.
Thus Michigan is expecting to lose at least 5-8 current members of the roster (other than fifth years) before Signing Day. (Big Ten rules prevent teams from oversigning unless they can explain where the scholarship is coming from.) That's not an inordinate number given the roster composition, the sudden possibility of NFL interest, and the fact that this is the first year of a new coach. We know of one guy who is already planning a playing-time transfer, FWIW, and there are no doubt more.
CURRENT CLASS SIZE
We are not considering Dele Harding a commit. He was removed from the Rivals commit list and any insider you poke will tell you they don't expect him to end up at Michigan.
We have also heard that some of the camp commits in the class were explicitly offered grayshirt deals. We are not exactly sure who, but depending on how things go Michigan could end up with extra spots in the class as guys reclassify to 2017 or take opportunities for 2016 elsewhere.
In addition, Chris Evans, Kingston Davis, and David Reese have all announced plans to take visits and should be considered soft commits.
So: the current class is somewhere between 14 and 20 guys. Welcome to 'crootin.
ROOM LEFT AND WHO MICHIGAN IS TARGETING
Michigan can take somewhere between 8 and 14 additional players. They are targeting approximately
- one running back
- one wide receiver
- one tight end
- one OL
- one kicker
- two or three DL
- two or three LB
- one or two CB
- one or two S
The only spot that is definitively full right now is QB.
MICHIGAN FOOTBALL 'CROOTIN OVERVIEW
|DECENT SHOT||TOP GROUP||LEADER||HARD
|RB (2)||K. Davis*||K. Enis|
|WR (2 +1)||
|Slot (1)||P Young
|TE (1+1)||D Asiasi||
|DT (+1)||B Tagaloa||R. Weaver|
|NT (+1)||K Camp
|SDE (1)||C Murphy||R. Johnson|
|WDE (1+1)||T Lucas#||Q Alexander||C Kemp|
|SLB (0)||J McCulloch|
|ILB (3+1)||D Jackson||C Kelly
D Bush Jr
|CB (8+1)||A. Richardson
|S (1+1)||A Posey#||J Fuller
|L Jackson||D. Gil
|P/K/LS (0+1)||Q Nordin|
commits in bold
Latest Updates: Debut
As flies to wanton boys are we to th' gods,
They kill us for their sport.
What's going on with Rudock?
Brian - you made some comments today on the podcast about how Jake Rudock's inability to hit the deep ball has finally bitten us in the collective asses, which I agree. You also mentioned that when you watched him last year, while he wasn't dead-on every time, he was able to hit the deep pass from time to time - something he clearly can't do this year.
My question is this - to me, this does not seem like a 'new coach, new system' type of a problem. Those issues seem to be the ones where he fails to even attempt a throw to a wide open receiver (which he does all the time - but I give him more of a pass for that as the "new system / new coach" issue). But when he throws the deep pass, only inaccurately - that suggests to me an issue with maybe his mechanics or something else that has thrown off his accuracy past 15 yards. Any thoughts why that might be? If anything, I would expect his deep accuracy to improve with a guy like Harbaugh teaching him the fundamentals. Again, I separate this from other issues such as "stares down Butt" or "ignores screamingly open routes every once in awhile."
Yeah, you got me. Some of the Rudock problems are issues that make sense given what we saw from him at Iowa. Not throwing at sort of covered Jake Butt on second and goal from the 18 is a Rudock problem I can understand. That is his reputation. Rudock not finding receivers is a problem I can understand. He's in a new system.
Rudock underthrowing Amara Darboh by about 20 yards is inexplicable. Any quarterback is going to be off on some long throws; to miss as often and as badly as Rudock has is not something that I saw last year. That's not just homerdom. Preseason, PFF put out an article titled "Michigan can win with QB Jake Rudock" that noted he was 12th in downfield (20+ yards in the air) accuracy by their system last year. In the Maryland game, BTN had a similar stat:
The disparity is certainly bigger now.
I don't know if he's hurt or his mechanics are messed up or what, but for whatever reason his ability to hit downfield passes has collapsed. Why? I dunno. Is there something different in what he's doing here?
Since one is in the middle of the field and one on the sideline. Those are throws of about the same length. Am I crazy or does the 2015 video look like a guy who's loading up to get it as far as he can while 2014 sees Rudock make a throw that's comfortably within his range? I dunno.
Something is wrong. A problematic injury, possibly one that caused the weird Iowa QB depth chart thing, is a possible explanation. The other explanation is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Ref hot take
Having read Seth’s analysis of the officiating (and you really should make him do that weekly) my question is why – why did this happen to us? If you ascribe these “errors” to incompetence, shouldn’t there be an equal number of blown calls going in our favor? Incompetent referees should be just as likely to screw things up for team A as team B and over the course of a 60 minute game shouldn’t it balance relatively out if they are simply incompetent?
The obvious alternative to incompetence is the officials had an agenda and carried it out. Granted, we still should’ve won the game but with so many critical calls being made against Michigan it made the game much closer than it needed to be and allowed the last play to finally tip the scale in MSU’s favor. And if it’s an agenda – why does it exist?
What say you? Incompetence, agenda or something else?
If you flip a coin a million times there are going to be stretches in there where you get a long series of heads or tails. Michigan just ate an game that was virtually all tails. There's no need for a further explanation. Over the past decade or so it's been definitively proven that the replay officials are not good enough at their job, but that's all. The Big Ten tends to use retired referees in the booth, with evidently disastrous results.
If there was any sort of "plan" here Michigan wouldn't have gotten a free touchdown when their receiver barely scraped the pylon a few years back in this very game. Remember that? That call was overturned from the correct call to free TD. Replay officials should no longer be people with rotary phones. Actual officials are probably the best we've got. That sucks; not much to do about it.
[After THE JUMP: HSPs future, Whoville analogy, we should have done this or that]
I thought I got it, but I didn’t really understand until Saturday. I grew up in a house with a dad who referred to football as the sport “where those muscle-bound gland cases run into each other” and a mom who went to Michigan State and spent every Saturday watching her beloved Spartans Sparty No! themselves into oblivion. Being an impressionable little dude I naturally followed along- at least, I did for the first 17 years of my life.
Mom spent a copious amount of time molding my fandom, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that when I told her I was going to Michigan she felt a lot like NFL reporters last December; of course there was a chance, but come on. I think she still spends time replaying the course of events and wondering how things turned so quickly; factor in that Michigan seeped so deeply into my soul that my profession is now entwined with the University and you can see why she feels like she had things so perfectly set up only for them to implode in the most spectacular and unlikely fashion imaginable. I get it now, mom. I saw what happened last Saturday and it was more than just watching something fall apart, it was feeling something fall apart and fall apart in mere seconds.
The funny thing about it is that it was right in front of us the whole time. The numbers, those cut-and-dry harbingers of doom, were gnawing at the back of our minds, telling us that it was a fool’s errand to hope we could run out the clock against fate. That why it stings in such a strange way. Like my mom, Michigan fans got blindsided even after turning our heads and watching it come straight for us. At some point you realize what you’re doing is the equivalent of holding together a heavy box with scotch tape and inevitably everything just spills out, and in a particularly painful but possibly (personally) karmically justified way I have some common ground with my mom once again. We both put our faith in something other than the numbers and got burned; now I know why I like stats so much.
[After THE JUMP: It went better than you thought. It also went worse than you thought.]
1 hour 57 minutes
SAME [Bryan Fuller]
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SO THAT HAPPENED
No idea what you're talking about
Gimmicky Top Five List: Things That Are Nice
We like things.
Regent Mike Behm
We mostly talk serious things. What being a regent entails, issues with transparency, instate enrollment.
Steve Lorenz of 247
Things went very well on the recruiting trail despite, you know, that.
Catch us Mondays 5-7 on 1050 WTKA.
THE USUAL LINKS
Buckle Up: Jordan Poole Announces Friday
Michigan waited longer than most programs to hand out offers to 2017 basketball prospects, but their selectiveness may help them land a commitment—and very soon, at that. Four-star WI SG Jordan Poole picked up his offer when he first visited campus for the BYU game; at the time he told The Wolverine's Chris Balas that the distinction of being M's first offer recipient in the class wasn't lost on him ($):
"I thought it was great," he said. "I really didn't know they hadn't offered anyone else until I got there. It shows they look for certain people and qualities as far as basketball and personality.
"For me to be the first …. Coach Beilein doesn't just give out offers. Some schools give out offer after offer. Coach Beilein really takes the time thinking about the right fit, if a kid really likes school and is thinking about going there. Being the first in the 2017 class is amazing."
Poole visited campus again last weekend; he told Scout's Brian Snow it was a "great" trip ($). Yesterday, he set his announcement:
Four-star 2017 SG Jordan Poole will announce his decision Friday at 5:30 CT at his school https://t.co/NMMKxikYOX
— Brian Snow (@BSnowScout) October 20, 2015
All signs point to Michigan. Poole would be a nice pickup; he's the #92 overall player in the 247 Composite and holds offers from the likes of Auburn, Illinois, Indiana, and Marquette.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]