Peppers at 10, which seems low.
Vilain Shuts It Down
A few significant developments emerged from what was a strong recruiting weekend for Michigan. First and foremost is the optimism surrounding Michigan's chances with top-100 VA WDE Luiji Vilain following his weekend visit. Michigan has pursued Vilain, a Canadian import, since he was a freshman and Brady Hoke was still in charge, and they were one of the first Power 5 schools to get in on what's become a legitmately national recruitment. Sam Webb has a lengthy, free post on Vilain's reaction to his visit last weekend, and the Wolverines are in great shape:
“I came in with high expectations, but I was still pretty blown away,” said Vilain. “It was really good. Everything was different. The vibe as soon as I get there, I felt that it was different. There’s change. I guess that’s the Harbaugh effect.”
Webb issued one of his famous "gut feelings" about an unnamed recruit who will make his choice public in mid-June, and all signs point to Vilain, who told Sam that after last weekend he won't need to take any more visits before making his decision. After speaking with his parents and his trainer, he'll decide between Michigan, Virginia Tech, and USC. It would be a surprise if he didn't end up a Wolverine before the end of the June.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]
|Wayne, NJ – 6'2", 286|
|Scout||3*, NR overall
|Rivals||3*, NR overall
NR SDE, #24 NJ
|ESPN||3*, NR overall
#48 DT, #15 NJ
|24/7||3*, #1261 overall
#76 DT, #36 NJ
|Other Suitors||PSU, Pitt, BC, Iowa, WVU|
|Previously On MGoBlog||Hello post from Ace.|
|Notes||Twitter. HS teammate of Kareem Walker.|
Michael Dwumfour is probably destined to be known as Rashan Gary’s sidekick for the duration of his career at Michigan. The two guys grew up together, played together their first couple years in high school, and remain good friends. Around the time of the UA game Sam Webb started dropping hints about a player down in Florida who Michigan might flip; said gentleman would supposedly lock Gary’s commitment down if the flip happened.
Because Sam is crafty like that he didn’t mention that the player in question wasn’t at the UA game but rather some other, obscure All-Star outing. This set off a wild goose chase that I certainly did not participate in. I was certainly not the cause of baseless threads about flipping Ole Miss five star Greg Little popping up months after the mystery man was revealed to be Dwumfour.
Anyway: despite a Penn State commitment and PSU’s outstanding success with lightly-recruited DTs over the past few years, Dwumfour may have to put up with a “Marsha Marsha Marsha” situation over the next few years. There are worse things.
Dwumfour doesn’t have a big time recruiting profile. Nobody offered him a fourth star or really anything close to it, and unlike a few guys already covered the ESPN scouting report more or less matches the ratings. They sum him up by saying that he “can contribute” to a Power 5 team “by at least offering quality depth to a rotation,” which is very much a meh three-star kind of destiny. The rest of the report is littered with caveats:
Possesses good bulk with thick base, but could have trouble adding any additional good mass without reworking body comp. … good playing strength and first-step quickness. … Demonstrates ability to come off ball with quick first step and good pad level and when he can win with quickness and leverage can hold ground. Flashes upper body strength to shed from blockers, but needs to continue to improve hand usage. … Can do a good job of attacking half-man and while he needs to refine usage can be very active with his hands. Displays adequate bull rush ability.
ESPN ranked Dwumfour higher than any other service by some distance. So of course there are more positive reports at the other sites, because sometimes the low end of the rankings is shruggie central.
Other reports focus on his proverbial get off. (No, guy in the comments who brings this up every time the term comes up, we aren’t doing “phrasing” anymore.) His 4.4 shuttle is impressive at Dwumfour’s size. The highlight film above features a lot of plays on which he shocks an OL and drives him back much like, yep, Maurice Hurst. His ability to bring the heat in just a step or two is a consistent theme of the more positive evaluations, including one from Don Brown himself:
Michael is very explosive, can separate on the double team and has good lateral movement.
Back when Brown was trying to get Dwumfour to BC they also focused on that first step:
"The day before I went up there they said they sat down and watched my film as a staff. My position coach specifically said he likes how I'm quick and explosive off the ball," he said.
Clint Brewster’s take is the most detailed on Dwumfour’s assets and future role:
I like how sudden he is off the ball for a player that’s around 300 pounds. He’s got the ability to shoot the gap between the center and the guard and penetrate the pocket. Dwumfour has the quickness to play the outside shade of the center or the inside shade of the guard and not just a nose-tackle. He’s got a really strong and well-built lower half that you like on an interior defensive tackle. He’s able to bull-rush offensive linemen or use the swim move to go around them.
Brewster actually named Dwumfour as a potential "instant impact" player when it came time to offer up Signing Day superlatives. That seems unlikely given the state of the defensive line and other reports about Dwumfour's to-date inconsistent motor, but it is an indicator that Brewster thinks he's an undervalued player.
So. Dwumfour isn't a zero-tech nose tackle who will occupy the sun and moon. He is the kind of gentleman who will shoot through a gap and blow up a run play in the backfield… or possibly a guy who will eat a double team and moonwalk backward when he doesn’t shoot that gap. Concerns about Dwumfour’s lack of gravitational pull pop up regularly. Scout has the ever-popular “size” as an an area for improvement:
… quick with his hands. He has explosion, but has a tendency to stand up quickly before accelerating forward. Once he explodes forward at the snap, he will become even more effective. Dwumfour has good strength and he plays with a low center of gravity, and he keeps his pad level low. He changes direction well and can make plays in space. At 6-foot-1, some schools make be hesitant to offer.
Lack of height is not actually a problem for interior DL. Lack of weight stemming from a lack of height is, and Dwumfour has had to add a bunch of it over the last couple years. Per Scout's Brian Dohn he was a 240-pound kid a couple years ago; he got to 280 or so without losing his quickness. That's a good sign for the last 20 or 30.
Other aspects of his game are not scouted consistently. He has good pad level, or he plays a little high. He's raw or he has excellent technique for a high school player. His hands are active and violent, or you’d “like to see him more assaulting.” He has size concerns or he “has the build to be a 300+ pound guy.” He’s a penetrating guy with a quick first step…
…easily the most impressive player at the camp from any day in my opinion. He was legitimately unblockable and Pitt offered on the spot.
“He’s not going to be an ‘every-play, go out and make a play’ guy. A successful play might be holding offensive linemen up to keep his linebackers clean. His responsibility may be to collapse the pocket so another guy can make the play. Success won’t always be making the tackle, but opening things up for another player.”
I’m not sure how much credence to lend Rivals’s Adam Friedman here since he talks about Dwumfour transitioning from DE to the interior. The Hudl film above is about 98% Dwumfour as a three-tech. Dwumfour is 6’2”, 280+. Nobody thinks he’s a candidate for any type of DE spot except apparently Rivals, which ranked him as an SDE. As a result the “Rivals analyst discusses prospect” article wastes a bunch of time engaging that positional designation, and concludes that he will have to move to DT. Which he has already moved to.
Anyway. A lot of the scouting reports seem tossed off or amateurish—Rutgers people are involved in the latter—and it's hard to get a solid read. His highlight tape is impressive, but short and tends towards filler at the end. Friedman refers to him as a "project" and I think that's accurate. When asked to scout himself a year ago, Dwumfour noted his athleticism and said he had to work on his stamina. Another year in the weight room, another year to refine his ability as a somewhat undersized interior DL, and then we'll see if the set of defensive coaches that went after him is a better indicator than the rankings.
Because the best argument in Dwumfour's favor is the set of defensive coaches who wanted him. Boston College was an early contender; Dwumfour initially decided between Pitt and Penn State. That's Don Brown, Pat Narduzzi, PSU's outstanding DL coach Sean Spencer, and Don Brown again—not bad.
Why Maurice Hurst? Hurst is almost exactly the same size as Dwumfour even deep into his college career—listed at 282 on his bio still, though I assume that will go up by fall camp—and was also regarded as a quick first step in human form. Hurst was higher regarded by the recruiting sites as a 3/4-star tweener, and his scouting reports were more consistently effusive about his ability to teleport into the backfield.
Some of Hurst’s limitations were exposed late in the year when opponents could double him without worrying about Glasgow: if successfully doubled he got blown off the ball. Dwumfour could have similar issues. If he does find himself at 300 or more after a couple years in the weight room, a couple of Michigan’s recent rangy NTs are also possible comparisons. If he scrapes the ceiling of his potential he could be in the same vein as a Glasgow or a Mike Martin. Neither are bighuge NT types; both hold up to doubles just fine and get through gaps with regularity.
Guru Reliability: Low-plus. Healthy player on a team that featured Kareem Walker and was thus well-scouted. However, in the generic three star bin and there are a lot of evaluations in the shruggie zone. Very little consensus on him in the scouting reports.
Variance: High. Could top out at around his current weight given his height, and that might not be enough to be a contributor. Could end up another penetrating interior DL like Glasgow or Hurst.
Ceiling: Moderate. Doesn’t seem to have the same first step as Hurst. If so would probably end up a rotation player only.
General Excitement Level: Moderate. Dwumfour seems a little underrated given his offer sheet, but not outrageously so.
Projection: Redshirt. Michigan loses a bunch from the DL after this year: Glasgow, Wormley, Charlton, and Godin all exit, leaving just Hurst and Mone amongst the veterans. Dwumfour is likely to move into the two-deep even as a redshirt freshman. He’ll have to wait another year for a realistic shot at a starting job, at which point that fight will be between Dwumfour and a bunch of second-year players from the 2017 class. Your guess is as good as mine since those players are yet to be determined.
Everyone's got their recruit they're over-excited about, but I've fallen hard for the first Don Brown potential dude, Joshua Uche. I figure I should explain why.
So we all remember this, right?
This is now run 100 different ways, with all sorts of guys to read and all sorts of places to attack. The idea is usually the same: leave an edge defender unblocked and read him off while the QB is holding the ball in the RB's breadbasket. It's "zone" because you're watching that blue circle, not the guy in it, since defenses will screw with you otherwise by having the end dive in and a linebacker appear or something. It's "read" because once you've ID'ed the unblocked defender, you watch to see if he's going to take the RB or the QB, then make him wrong.
Now that it's approaching 30 years old, defenses have had a long time to adjust to it. But like the option, or Power, or the Veer, or west coast passing route combinations, it's a good enough base play to remain a standard feature in most college offenses. That means every college team has to spend practice time learning multiple methods to stop it, and probably will as long as the sport lasts.
Don Brown's BC playbook was no exception, devoting over a tenth of the document to beating spread things. Today I'd like to introduce Brown's particular version of zone read defense, then zoom in on the vanilla zone read stopper play and what it means for the kind of player he wants at "End", i.e. the weakside defensive end. I don't want to get into all of the run fits and stuff, but since we just ran Josh Uche's recruiting profile I thought it would be cool to go over exactly what he was recruited to do.
ZONE READ STOPPERS
Every coach has his own tweaks, but strategies for defending the mesh (that handoff decision) usually follow along a few similar ideas:
1. Delay the mesh for so long that the rest of the defense can react, beat their blocks, and corral the ballcarrier.
- Pros: Doesn't use an extra defender/vanilla response.
- Cons: Hard to do, requires the rest of the defense to win blocks, extra time for play develop can also work against you.
2. Scrape exchange. Attack one or the other to force a fast decision and bring another defender (usually from somewhere he's not expected) to bring down the other guy.
- Pros: The paper to this particular rock.
- Cons: You're using two defenders, opening up scissors.
3. Blow it up. Send that unblocked guy right at the mesh point itself.
- Pros: Aggressive. Against college quarterbacks this may trigger all sorts of bad reactions. May give you a few extra opportunities to hit the quarterback.
- Cons: A good ZR team will calmly hand it off.
A lot of teams will have one they feature more than the others, depending on the abilities of their personnel and what kind of team they're facing that week. Like, if you're more worried about the QB running than throwing you may scrape them all day. If you're facing a true freshman 3rd stringer they just ripped the redshirt off of maybe blow it up. If the zone read is just a sideshow and the real threat is the RB you may go in with just the delay. If you're facing a team that uses the zone read as a big part of its offense you really ought to have all three, and different variations of them perhaps, so the offense won't know what's coming.
Of these, the delay is good ol' rock-on-rock.*
[After the JUMP: why Uche looks like he will excel at rock]
Again. Congrats to softball, which won their umpteenth consecutive regional. Their super-regional against Missouri is this upcoming weekend. Wolverine Devotee has assembled the relevant information:
2 Michigan will host 15 Missouri in the NCAA Ann Arbor Super Regional next weekend on May 28-29.
- Game 1- Saturday, May 28 (3pm/ESPN)
- Game 2- Sunday, May 29 (Noon/ESPN)
- Game 3 (if nec.)- Sunday, May 29 (3pm/ESPN)
Tickets go on sale tomorrow at 8:30am for season ticket holders and to the general public on Tuesday at 8:30am.
You will not get tickets if you don’t already have them.
Awww yeah. Jane takes the 1986 Hawaii game and adores it:
10. When people tell you they want to see "Schembechler-style" football they mean they want to see a football game that looks sort of like the Battle of Verdun. Typically, the people telling you this will have a carefully-guarded recipe for seven-layer dip. I have no problem with any of this.
11. 27-10 is the score of a game in which one team is much better than the other team but doesn't really want anyone to know it. Like, you score 3 touchdowns but then, "whoa, let's not get cocky."
12. 27-10 is kind of the most Michigan score of all.
Expectations. Many people are expecting a good season from Michigan this year but this might be a tad much:
— Johnny Detroit (@Johnny_Detroit) May 23, 2016
7 to 1 are the second best odds on the board behind Alabama at 6 to 1. This is not a power poll, many of which have Michigan around #5. Like this one from PFF:
It’s all about the defense at Michigan, as they’re poised to be one of the nation’s best. They return the nation’s top-graded cornerback in Jourdan Lewis as well as two of the top three graded interior defensive linemen in Chris Wormley and Maurice Hurst. It will be on the offense to find a way to score points, but the majority of the offense returns and the results of their wide-open quarterback race – led by Wilton Speight – will determine just how far this Michigan team will go.
That’s a power poll. The betting lines aren’t. Those take Michigan’s iffy schedule into account. They’re also a collection of sucker bets that has less predictive power than a weekly line that sharps mostly control. (It also emphasizes how incredibly unlikely Leicester City was: you can bet on Navy or Air Force to win the national title at 1000 to 1. Leicester was infamously 5000 to 1.) But the expectations: they are out there.
About that defense. PFF details why they expect Michigan to have one of the best ones in the country again:
2. Their pass rush should be excellent…
As good as Henry was for Michigan last season, he was only the fourth-most efficient rusher on the Wolverines’ defense. Chris Wormley and Maurice Hurst formed the most efficient interior pass-rushing duo in the nation, with Wormley ranking first among defensive tackles in pass-rush productivity (45 total QB pressures, including seven sacks) and Hurst ranking third (30, including three). Hurst only saw 418 snaps last season, so the ability of both he and Wormley to stay productive and on the field will be critical to the Wolverines’ defensive success.
On the edge, Taco Charlton ranked sixth among 4-3 defensive ends in pass-rush productivity, generating 41 total pressures including six sacks.
Charlton did that in relatively scanty playing time as for much of the season he was splitting SDE snaps with Wormley. Only in the last few games did he end up starting at WDE. He could break out in a huge way with incremental improvement and a clear starting role.
PFF also offered up a couple of glimpses into their database that I don’t think we’d seen before, since usually the only hard numbers we get are from the top end. On Michigan’s departures:
The Wolverines only had one player drafted at all – defensive lineman Willie Henry, who went to the Ravens in the fourth round. That’s not to say they don’t have to replace some very productive players. Henry was PFF’s No. 34 interior lineman, LBs Desmond Morgan and Royce Jenkins-Stone both produced at a high level (linebacker in general is a bit of a question-mark position for Michigan), and SS Jarrod Wilson ranked No. 29 at his position after grading well in both run and pass defense.
I didn’t think RJS was that productive—not bad, but not great, either. And Wilson’s ranking is very boring, as is appropriate. A couple departures are omitted, one due to injury early in the year, the other… not due to injury.
Why does there have to be a seamy underbelly? Waco police and Baylor have conspired to keep a series of serious crimes by Baylor players out of the public eye. One of many:
In one case from 2011, an assault at an off-campus event in Waco ended with three football players being charged and Baylor and Waco police discussing the incident. Waco police, according to documents, took extraordinary steps to keep it from the public view "given the potential high-profile nature of the incident." According to a police report obtained by Outside the Lines, Waco's investigating officer asked a commander that "the case be pulled from the computer system so that only persons who had a reason to inquire about the report would be able to access it." The report was placed in a locked office.
This is bigger than the football program. The Title IX “Dear Colleague” letter that we became familiar with when Brendan Gibbons was belatedly expelled from the university is very much in effect at Baylor despite its private status, and there are a pile of accusations that the university has been operating like it’s still 1950 in this department. That could lead to serious repercussions for Baylor as a whole.
Via GTP, Chip Brown is reporting that Art Briles may be safe despite the fact that his teams seem to have a ton of bad behavior going on:
Multiple sources connected to Baylor told HornsDigest.com football coach Art Briles has a better chance of keeping his job after the school’s rape scandal than BU president and chancellor Ken Starr.
The sources said Starr will probably be reassigned to a position in BU’s law school as a result of the failed leadership displayed after multiple rape claims made by female Baylor students against five BU football players all but went ignored…
Briles, who has taken an irrelevant football program to two Big 12 titles in the last three years (including a bunch of new athletics facilities), is sometimes referred to by Baylor brass as “Moses.”
Brown titles this piece “Starr—Not Briles—Will Be BU’s Fall Guy,” which is wrong. A fall guy is someone who takes the hit for something that wasn’t his fault. Scott Shafer was a fall guy for Rich Rodriguez. Here, Ken Starr is certainly responsible for massive failures and should be booted. You could make an argument either way for Briles, but it’s indisputable that Title IX stuff is above his paygrade. (Uh… figuratively.)
"If you don't (release the findings), it's going to look like you're hiding something given all of these allegations that are now out there," he said. "There's just been so much of it. All of that (Shawn) Oakman stuff. Now this."
And this is a salient point:
"These guys kept playing?" the coach said. "The message you're sending is, 'This isn't a big deal.'" … "This is a guy (Briles) who prides himself in being a players' coach and coaching his team like a high school team. It's really hard to believe that he didn't know about any of this stuff."
Michigan would still have Logan Tuley-Tillman on the roster if they acted like Baylor evidently has. The goings-on in Waco make Michigan’s participation in Baylor’s camp a dubious proposition. We’ll see if it continues as scheduled—Sam Webb mentioned there was some discussion of it but they still planned to go forward with it.
Still, this is more a story about Waco police corruption at the behest of Baylor’s administration more than it is a football coach. Someone’s head has to roll and unusually it look like the—or at least a—correct one will. Whether or not Baylor actually changes as a result is very much in question.
Praise to a sensible thing. More details on Big Ten hockey’s revamped playoff format have emerged, and they are equally devoid of neutral sites:
The tournament would be played over the course of three weekends and feature three best-of-three quarterfinal round series, two single-game semifinals, and one championship game. All games will be hosted on campus of the highest seed.
I assume they meant “higher” seed, not “highest” seed, FWIW. While I’d prefer best two-of-three to continue throughout the tournament, that change is close enough to what I’ve been advocating since Big Ten hockey started existing that I’ll take it. It’s more hockey, and a much much better environment for it. I assume the single game semis and finals are for TV purposes—the league can say we have these three games at this time and televise it without having to worry about if-necessary games. There would seem to be no other reason to have the above format.
While the story linked above seems to assume that the Big Ten will stay at 7, the format will obviously accommodate an eighth team without much disruption. Arizona State’s announcement they will join the NCHC means that particular bad idea is off the table, so the options are 1) swing for the North Dakota fences, 2) wait for a Big Ten school to add hockey or 3) take Miami, I guess.
BTW the comments here are 90% Minnesota fans bitching about Big Ten hockey…
Wow, it's been 24 hours since I thanked the Big 10 for ruining college hockey. Thanks Big Ten!!!!
…and one North Dakota fan trolling. My favorite is the guy that imagines Minnesota has leverage:
Cleaning up this mess is Coyle's first priority as AD. We need to force ourselves out of this debacle and back into regionalized hockey as soon as possible. He needs to play hardball like Alvarez played hardball in forcing Minnesota to accept this terrible idea.
They’re gonna make Minnesota hockey great again by playing hardball. That’s the ticket.
Etc.: Manuel on scheduling. Manuel on Harbaugh. Ian Boyd on how teams protect their matchup nightmare TE when he’s not a killer blocker. Relevant to our interests. Conference distribution numbers show the SEC and Big Ten on par, at least temporarily. Billy Donlon, defensive coordinator.
By a final margin of 3,016 votes to 2,364, the winner of the inaugural Jim Harbaugh GIF Tournament is...
...the juggernaut known as Spring Game Grin, which cruised through the Final Four after the titanic grin-off with Harbaugh As Grinch. I've already described these GIFs several times over, but I think Louisville Wolverine best captured why this one won out.
It isn't solely the sentimentality of SGG that makes it a winner, thought that is a compelling aspect of it. It is the latent potential that it holds for everything that would eventually come after it.
All the other gifs exist there. It is the spring event from which the river of entertaining moments flow.
The tourney will return next spring with an entirely new field. Harbaugh is already off to a tremendous start on this year's crop.
Thirty GIFs down, one to go.
We've eliminated some bona-fide contenders, including all four one-seeds. For the second straight round, a vote came down to the final minutes. Without further ado, your Final Four results:
#2 Spring Game Grin: 2,299 (65%)
#3 Pfffffffhahahaha: 1,238 (35%)
#3 WELL OKAY: 1,751 (50%)
#2 Punt Demo: 1,766 (50%)
It all comes down to this.
(2) Spring Game Grin vs. (2) Punt Demo
Def. Fist Pump 76% to 24% in the first round.
Def. "You're Really Good" 70% to 30% in the Sweet Sixteen.
Def. Harbaugh As Grinch 50% to 50% (14-vote margin) in the Elite Eight.
Def. Pfffffffhahahaha 65% to 35% in the Final Four.
The sentimental favorite. In addition to capturing the moment returning to Michigan seemingly sunk in for Harbaugh, this is an ideal reaction GIF.
Def. What's The Call 86% to 14% in the first round.
Def. Harbaugh's Huddle 65% to 35% in the Sweet Sixteen.
Def. Dr. Harbaugh 70% to 30% in the Elite Eight.
Def. WELL OKAY 50% to 50% (15-vote margin) in the Final Four.
You can tell by the hat's uncertain perch on Harbaugh's head that he's already mid-freakout when this GIF begins. All eyes are on Harbaugh as everyone expects something spectacular; to say the least, he delivers. As a bonus, this GIF is eminently photoshoppable.
Voting will run through the weekend. The champion will be crowned on Monday afternoon.