"The University of Illinois is also in turmoil. The university sports an Interim Chancellor, an Interim Athletic Director, and an Interim Football Coach; the game will be played at Soldier Field, making this an Illini Interim Home Game."
How this works again:
- Readers predict the final score of a designated game by placing a guess in the comments, preferably in the format of [M score][hyphen][Opp score], for example "41-0" or "35-0 Michigan", or "28-0 Go Blue", or "42-0 Harbaugh!" etc.
- The three guys who read this part holler at people who post in a different format
- First person (by timestamp) to post a particular score has it.
- If you got it right, I contact you for an address by your MGoBlog account email, and you give me some time to get that to you.
- If nobody got it right or I don't hear from the winner(s) we push it to next week or let it go.
About Last Time:
Nobody was right, but then it's hard to predict the football gods would side with the Gophers that much. GoBlueNorth was closest with 27-24 Michigan but as Minnesota learned, close isn't good enough.
This Week's Game:
Rutgers at Michigan.
And on the Line:
I grew up watching This Old House and always appreciated Norm's quick-fix solutions to problems the homeowners complained about. Add a support here, try a little brick there, close the gaps, etc. Gophers like to burrow deep but as long as they get no closer than half yard away from your house, they're not going to upset anything.
One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (for my ease I prefer if you don't post it as a reply to another person's score--if you do it won't help or hurt you). Deadline for entries is 24 hours before the start of the game. MGoEmployees and moderators exempt from winning. The algorithm finds the winners as it chooses. The algorithm is self-correcting. The algorithm consistently runs power. The algorithm locked Rutgers out of Jersey.
Sorry about the lateness of the UFRs this week. Finding all the video took forever.
Upon Further Review has a sponsor. We got a couple nice comments on the previous UFR in re: Matt.
I worked with Matt (aka HomeSure lending) and closed my refi last week. Everything went as planned and on schedule. He was easy to work with and there was good communication throughout. I've had other refi's that did not go as planned and caused wasted time for me or were chaotic. With Matt it went really well and I got a lower rate and now my monthly payment dropped and I'll pay it off in the same amount of years. …
Oh and one more thing. When I first called him, he talked me out of refinancing because he was honest and told me my current loan was better than what I was trying to do with him. Once the rates dropped he reconnected with me and that lead to the refi. He seemed really honest and truly trying to do what's right.
That guy has had an account since 2009 in case you're worried about astroturfing. He's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.
FORMATION NOTES: Michigan spent a lot of the game like this, with Ross at the buck (standing to the bottom of the DL) and Peppers and Hill flanked outside of the two ILBs.
This was an especially weird game to play Ross as the buck since otherwise you would have expected him to play a lot as a third linebacker. I just called this "nickel even" since Ross was functioning as a DL.
This was "quads inner bunch"; Peppers is about to do something almost awesome.
All else per usual.
PERSONNEL NOTES: No Godin, who was injured, so the rotation on the DL was circumscribed. Hurst and Glasgow rotated at the nose with scattered snaps on which both played; Charlton got snaps here and there, but Wormley and Henry had a heavy workload.
Ross bizarrely got most of the snaps at buck instead of Jenkins-Stone; he did not do well. Morgan didn't come off the field; it was mostly Bolden at the other LB spot but Gedeon got a little time; there were a few 4 LB sets.
Secondary was mostly the usual, with Thomas the primary dime back this week. Clark got most of the second CB playing time.
[After THE JUMP: flukes and… not flukes]
seen a ghost
Rutgers' offense is, essentially, bombs to Leonte Carroo or bust. That's tough to make work consistently in the best of times, and these aren't the best of times.
Catching up on Kyle Flood's radio show from earlier tonight, he said Leonte Carroo just watched practice today, did not participate.
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) November 5, 2015
Carroo's status for Saturday's game is in doubt after he missed the vast majority of the last two games. He didn't suit up at all for last week's blowout loss to Wisconsin, which I watched, at least until I couldn't bear to watch it anymore. Read on!
Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
Rutgers splits carries pretty evenly between their top three tailbacks. In this game they spent a ton of snaps in one-wideout formations; senior fullback Sam Bergen (#44) will play about half the game, apparently even if Rutgers falls way behind, as they did in this one.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Pro-style, for the given definition in which a team has few spread elements, huddles up, and takes most of their snaps under center.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Rutgers ran both gap and zone principles. Their pet play was a counter out of a one-receiver Ace set that had half-decent effectiveness on an early field goal drive...
pretty sure at least seven of these were the same counter play
...and that got stuffed when they tried it at the end of the drive and later in the game.
Hurry it up or grind it out? Very slow tempo; they currently rank 99th in adjusted pace.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Well, that was weird. Mitch Leidner, who Greg Jackson said wasn’t the same after a knee injury, did what’s pictured above while also passing for about four games worth of yardage against this secondary on a number of throws that just sort of dropped from the heavens. Minnesota fans had no problem pointing out just how bizarre this game was. Here’s a portion of the intro from The Daily Gopher’s piece on charting the game:
Minnesota received both gifts and sorrow. While clock management at the end doomed the team, Michigan should have picked off Leidner twice. Both times would have prevented touchdowns.
When they start that second sentence with a negative I expect the part after the comma to be exuberantly positive, and it is but in a really odd, we-barely-made-this-competitive sort of way. Their quarterback threw two how-are-those-not-interceptions that were only avoided because of some mystical combination of a holiday, a night game, a piece of crockery, and a Harbaugh. Their fans saw that as something worth celebrating, which seems overly punitive but is also an indicator of just how not used to having nice things they are.
The stats aren’t going to do anything to lessen the sting for Minnesota; they basically back up The Daily Gopher’s self loathing. Minnesota outgained Michigan significantly and put up more unexpected explosive plays than any other team M has faced this year. They had double the scoring opportunities Michigan did, an extra drive, and managed to run 10 more plays. Minnesota mixed spectacularly lucky plays with some that were just plain spectacular and still lost. For 58 minutes and 41 seconds they got gifts; for 19 seconds, the kind of sorrow that steals a little bit of your football soul and can only be made incrementally better by trying to rationalize how it could have been so much worse.
[After THE JUMP: Four Factors. Five Factors. Tables. A goofy Harbaugh picture]
About Last Week:
The Road Ahead:
Rutgers (3-5, 1-4 B1G)
Last week: Lost at Wisconsin, 48-10
Recap: Hayden Rettig is Rutgers’ backup quarterback. Rettig replaced starter Chris Laviano, and promptly posted a QBR of 2.9. And somehow, this was an improvement over Laviano’s 2.7.
Rutgers was outgained 426-165, and were more than doubled up in the air and on the ground. It wasn’t all his fault, Laviano was legitimately atrocious, going 4 of 14 for 31 yards (2.2 YPA) with no touchdowns and a pick. When you factor in rushes/sacks, Laviano’s 19 touches gained a total of 11 yards. That’s approximately two Subway sandwiches per pass attempt.
In conference play thus far, Rutgers is averaging 5.16 yards per play and surrendering 7.3 yards per play. That’s a negative differential of 2.14 yards per play, which is dead last in the B1G, more than a half-yard worse than second-to-last place Purdue and more than a yard worse than the likes of Indiana and Maryland. Part of that is because they have played four of the better offenses in the conference in Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Part of it is because they are bad.
On the bright side, basketball season is right around the corner…
SI forecasts that Rutgers (288) will be the worst team from a BCS conference by a huge margin: The Scarlet Knights are the only BCS-conference team outside our top 200, and we project them to go 1-17 in the Big Ten. Rutgers' projections are so bleak that we would still have them finishing last if they were in the CAA.
This team is as frightening as: the prospect of facing Rutgers basketball once or twice per year for the foreseeable future. Fear Level = 2
Michigan should worry about: Leonte Carroo…
Michigan can sleep soundly about: ...has a bum ankle and is questionable for the game, and if he does play he’ll probably be lining up across from Jourdan Lewis.
When they play Michigan: Walls may not be necessary. Michigan will probably be able to get by with those nylon extend-o ropes that banks and airport security lines use.
This week: at Michigan, 3:30 p.m., BTN
[Hit THE JUMP.]
The Question (Seth):
Name a great coaching mishap...that happened to the the other guys!
(To clarify, by "mishap" I meant like a single play or series, not worst coaching choices. Blunder. Miscue. Bungle. Goof. Lapse. Miscalculation.)
Adam: The first thing that came to mind was 2011 against Ohio State. OSU, down 6, got the ball with 1:59 to go at the 20-yard line. They converted on 4th and 6 and continued driving with a minute to go until they decided moving the ball was overrated and the key to winning was to stay right where they were. On 3rd and 6 from their 36 they ran 15 seconds off the clock...and then spiked the ball.
After the game Braxton Miller said that was what interim HC Luke Fickell told him to do. I'm no coach, but lighting the clock on fire and giving away a down to put yourself in a must-convert situation (and needing six yards, no less) with 45 seconds to go seems like a bad strategy.
[Hit THE JUMP for the Big Guy.]