- Pep Hamilton Part 1: It makes some sense if you understand it’s the Browns, and the fact that he can be reunited with Ed Feng.
- Hoop: very poor defensive effort, AND opponents are shooting the lights out from three, AND…callers
- Callers: They call into a radio station to talk about Beilein. Most of what they say is sensible. What happened to the Donlon Effect?
- B recruiting: it is what it is. Recruiting with attrition in mind is a good change.
- The O-Line: Hoke’s bad recruiting and bad luck left just one upperclassman tackle (JBB) on the team for 2017.
- Pep Hamilton Part 2: Pep was on hand for the big uptick in Stanford. Calm, smart, confident—not fiery on the sideline. Coaching turnover will be a thing as long as Harbaugh’s here, but not a bad thing.
- PJ Fleck rowing his whole recruiting out of K-zoo with him; we’ve moved WMU’s kitchen sink to soft commit.
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Audioboom.
THE USUAL LINKS
Squint really hard—is there a Lewanlong in there?
When updating the roster I also of course grabbed the current rankings and star ratings from each site for the committed players. I was having some fun seeing where they fit among past Michigan recruits, and figured I might as well share.
Explanation of numbers: My “☆s” ratings are a composite score on a sliding 5-star scale that averages the available recruiting site data. So for example 247sports had Shane Morris a 95, and the 81st overall recruit. On my scale that would be a 4.4-star, the equivalent of a 5.9 in the top 100 to Rivals, a 4-star in the top 100 on Scout, and an 84 on ESPN. Weights in the second column are as a recruit. Also the old ESPN grades are scaled to match (as best as possible) their modern ratings system. Pre-2002 ratings are not to be trusted because those data I have are mostly just stars, with the occasional top-100 or something, and pre-1996 is the recruiting dark ages.
Please get the point: This is not a “You might remember me from such players as,” which is based on scouting—you’ll have to wait for the 2017 recruiting posts this spring and summer before we can make those kinds of claims. The tape and offers can sometimes tell a very different story than the scouting services, to say nothing of fit and who’s doing the offering.
The point here is to orient you as to how highly rated these guys are, because “he’s a 4-star” can mean a ton of things but “he’s right around where Kekoa Crawford ended up” is a mark.
Dylan McCaffrey (M rank as recruit since 1995: 9/25)
|4||Jason Kapsner||’96||6'6 /220||-||SUPERPREP:
#7 QB, AA
|5||Shane Morris||’13||6'3/183||6.0 (#4 DUAL)
|5* (#3 QB)
|84 (#8 QB)
|95 (#4 PRO)
|6||Brandon Peters||’16||6'5/216||5.9 (#6 PRO)
|4* (#4 QB)
|85 (#3 PP)
|96 (#4 PRO)
|8||Devin Gardner||’10||6'4/195||5.9 (#1 DUAL)
|5* (#5 QB)
|84 (#5 DT)
|96 (#1 DUAL)
|9||Dylan McCaffrey||’17||6'5/196||6.0 (#4 DUAL)
|4* (#8 QB)
|84 (#2 PP)
|95 (#4 PRO)
|10||Clayton Richard||’03||6'4/225||4* (#4 PRO)
|4* (#13 QB)
|11||Matt Gutierrez||’02||6'4/206||4* (#5 PRO)
|4* (#12 QB)
|12||Tate Forcier||’09||6'1/184||5.9 (#5 DUAL)
|4* (#15 QB)
|84 (#14 QB)
|13||Denard Robinson||’09||6'0/179||5.8 (#14 ATH)
|4* (#16 CB)
|84 (#7 ATH)
|15||Alex Malzone||’15||6'2/205||5.8 (#11 PRO)
|4* (#14 QB)
|80 (#16 PP)
|88 (#15 PRO)
Go look at the QB class of 2004 if you doubt a #13 was pretty good.
Between Devin Gardner and Clayton Richard/Tate Forcier, but I see a closer comp to Shane Morris except taller and more Harbaugh. Like Morris, McCaffrey created disagreement as to whether he’s a pro-style or dual-threat, and he was a consensus five-star before slipping down to wind up a high-ish 4-star. If he slipped a bit further, it’s probably not as much as Shane would have fallen in today’s more dynamic rankings world. McCaffrey may also get moved up a bit as ESPN finalizes their ratings—Brandon Peters was ranked the same nationally—60th overall—but got a score of 85.
That McCaffrey was recruited by Harbaugh, not Borges, is important. When I went through all the quarterbacks Harbaugh recruited to Stanford the vast majority of his targets wound up good quarterbacks. In 2008 he got Luck and almost got RGIII but for Stanford’s admissions policy. The following year three out of his five offers (Matt Barkley, Taysom Hill, and Brock Osweiler) ended up Heisman candidates, and the other two (Josh Nunes at Stanford and Allan Bridgford at Cal) were starters. As for Borges, his one scouting success story so far is Wilton Speight…after two years of being coached by Harbaugh.
[Hit THE JUMP for more.]
DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.
- TE Jake Butt. Mackey win might have been a career award but it was warranted in that context. Sure handed, huge catching radius threat. Blocking indifferent. Butt will be missed by more than last name aficionados. 69% catch rate is nuts. He's off to the second round of the draft unless people are spooked by a bowl-game ACL tear.
- WR Amara Darboh. Delivered on Jim Harbaugh's assertions that he was Michigan's best receiver with an All Big Ten year. Still left you wanting a bit more, though, as he had multiple opportunities to bail Wilton Speight out of iffy throws and took few of them during Michigan's unfortunate finish.
- RT Erik Magnuson. Quiet, steady performer at tackle. Was never a star and I'm a little dubious of people projecting him on day two in the draft, but if Michigan had five Erik Magnusons the year ends very differently. Alas.
- WR Jehu Chesson. Never recaptured his stellar late 2015 form as a senior. Still moderately productive, but only that. Speed did not translate into downfield production, or even many targets. Those went to Darboh, with iffy success.
- RB De'Veon Smith. Workhorse back had solid season. Detractors will point to middling YPC (4.7) relative to the rest of the platoon; this is unfair since Smith got all the short yardage work and was often making yards on his own just to get to that number. Pass protection dipped in senior year.
- LT Ben Braden. Pressed into service at left tackle after Grant Newsome's injury, where he was neither as bad as expected nor actually good. Reduced his tendency to lean on guys as his career went on but never fully excised that from his game. Draft chatter minimal, understandably.
- RG Kyle Kalis. Promising start to senior season submarined by a recurrence of mental errors and then just straight up getting crushed by top-level interior pass rushers. Extravagantly whipped by Jaleel Johnson, Nick Bosa, and DeMarcus Walker in Michigan's losses. I will never say "it can't get worse" in reference to a Michigan offensive line again, but Kalis seems eminently replaceable.
- RB/QB Jabrill Peppers. Offensive output was minimal after wildcat QB business was diagnosed. Effective decoy mostly.
- QB Shane Morris. Never found playing time and is taking a grad transfer.
- OL David Dawson. Announced a grad transfer even before spring practice, further emphasizing how thin Michigan was on the OL this year: either he or the coaches didn't think he had any shot at a job this fall.
- OL Mason Cole. Move to center went relatively well, though I was less into him than PFF was. Had difficulty moving large nose tackle types and didn't get to do much operating in space, oddly. Pass protection was very good once he was removed from edge types, and I might be expecting to much. He had an NFL decision to make at a spot that usually doesn't see a ton of guys go.
- QB Wilton Speight. Debut season was solid statistically: 7.7 YPA, 62% completions, 18-7 TD-INT, third in the Big Ten in passer rating, 29th passing O in S&P+. Michigan's sack rate allowed was pretty good (27th) largely because of Speight's excellent pocket presence. Late wobbles leave the door open a crack for Brandon Peters.
- The rest of the running back platoon. Chris Evans will headline after the bowl game touchdown; Ty Isaac and Karan Higdon also had their moments. Evans is a jittery speedster who promises to hit the home runs Smith could not. Higdon will probably pick up most of the mooseback work since he's a low-to-the-ground guy who runs behinds his pads, as they say. Isaac's never had it click, really, but played well in relatively limited opportunities last year.
- OL Ben Bredeson. Flat out bad most of the year, because he was a true freshman. Should get a lot better, whether it's at guard or tackle. Honestly we should just forget about this season entirely when it comes to projecting him down the road.
- FBs Henry Poggi and Khalid Hill. FB duo was quite a dichotomy. Hill led the team in touchdowns and paved various players on spectacular edge two-for-one blocks while catching 89% of the balls that came his way. Poggi was not the threat as a receiver or runner and was substantially below average as a blocker. Despite this the two FBs split time about down the middle.
- Kaiju. Devin Asiasi and Tyrone Wheatley Jr were mostly blockers. Both were up and down, as freshmen tend to be, flashing A+ power while occasionally falling off dudes. They were not targeted often but made the most of their opportunities. With Butt's absence Michigan will rely more heavily on both; the potential for a Leap from one or both entices.
- TE Ian Bunting. Looked like Butt 2.0 on a slick seam catch in the bowl game, and also looked like Butt 2.0 when he gave up a comically easy sack a few plays later. Previous bullet makes his role in the offense somewhat in question
- (Probably) WR Grant Perry. Legal troubles probably get pled down to misdemeanors and allow him to stay on the team. Slippery slot receiver will have a role if still around.
- RB Drake Johnson. Star-crossed running back lost last season to a forklift accident and will apply for a sixth year. Fast straight-line runner who will find a role.
- OL Juwann Bushell-Beatty. Temporarily the LT after Newsome left. Displaced after struggling mightily.
WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY
Bredeson is a returning starter, sort of[Fuller]
Basically the whole offensive line. For purposes of this bullet we're pretending freshman Ben Bredeson and not freshman Ben Bredeson are different people, because we need that to be the case. Michigan needs to replace three starters and get a transformation from the aforementioned; this is a lot of turnover. Mike Onwenu is penciled in at right guard and unlikely to be dislodged by anything short of a supernova; Bredeson will start somewhere. Cole exists. The other two spots are anyone's guess.
Ditto the receivers. Michigan got some good blocking, one bad drop, and one badass catch from Kekoa Crawford this year; Eddie McDoom took a bunch of jet sweeps and had one nice slant catch; Drake Harris was targeted deep several times, all of those incompletions except for one sweet catch invalidated by an unnecessary offensive pass interference call. That is the sum total of returning experience for the WR corps.
Tight ends in a post-Butt world. Ton of potential at the spot; probably fine; need to see that potential develop.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1977
Probably Wilton Speight. Speight's 2016 did not have the clear takeoff narrative that Jake Rudock did. He was great for a couple games early, then bad, then indifferent, then awesome after the bye week until he turned into a pumpkin a third of the way through Iowa. He was terrific against Ohio State despite an injury that seemed to prevent him from throwing it downfield whatsoever... except for two turnovers 100% on him that lost the game. He gets an incomplete for the Orange Bowl since every time he dropped back he was beset by hounds instantly.
It would be much easier to draw an upward arrow if he'd packed the bad stuff in early and then got a lot better; unfortunately that is not the case. I'm still a Speight optimist for three reasons:
- Harbaugh. This should be self-explanatory but if you need a refresher here's the QB season preview.
- Speight seems to have the hardest thing down: pocket presence. His ability to turn garbage into first downs is exceptional for a guy his size.
- His good periods came after an opportunity to take a breather and focus on the things Harbaugh was coaching him to do. Speight was hot at the beginning of the season, after the bye, and after he missed the Indiana game. As we go along here he should be more that guy than the one who forgot and reverted to high school/Borges stuff when the heat got turned up.
Also, redshirt sophomores generally get better. It's not a big step from where he's currently at to an All Big Ten type season.
The three to five horsemen. I really like Chris Evans and Karan Higdon, and with Johnson, Isaac, Kareem Walker, and O'Maury Samuels also available this looks set to be a very deep and good running back crew. It may lack the out and out star that Najee Harris would have provided; I'm not stressing about the ballcarriers not getting what they should. All three returners graded significantly positively on PFF (relative to workload).
Blocky/catchy blocking. If one or both Kaiju takes a Williams-esque step forward and Hill gets most of the fullback work, Michigan's ability to generate yards off tackle will take a big step forward. Butt was an excellent player overall; he was average-at-best as a blocker.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2017
Newsome's injury recover is critical [Bill Rapai]
Tackle. Hoke's OL recruiting was, in a word, disastrous. Michigan enters 2017 with exactly one Hoke-recruited OT: Bushell-Beatty. That means Michigan will have to do two of the following:
- Get Grant Newsome back from a terrifying injury that kept him in the hospital for over a month. (FWIW, there's been some chatter that Newsome's injury doesn't have an unusually lengthy prognosis despite the hospital stay.)
- Move Mason Cole back to the tackle spot he couldn't pass protect at.
- Move Ben Bredeson out to tackle, where he might have the same issues Cole does.
- Start Bushell-Beatty, who got beat up by Rutgers last year.
- Start Nolan Ulizio, a low-rated redshirt sophomore.
- Start a true freshman.
Two of those options might work out really well. But probably not.
WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY
The guys on the end of Speight passes. Young receivers are usually bad. Of late, however, you're seeing a couple guys a year break through as true freshmen. Michigan has a couple of candidates in the 2017 class. Both Tarik Black and Donovan Peoples-Jones enrolled early, and both seem like sharp guys who will pick up the offense quickly. Add those guys to the McDoom/Crawford/Johnson troika that the coaching staff is high on and Drake Harris and it's not too hard to see Michigan being at least as good as they were this year.
Or they could be first-and-second year guys and run into each other on the regular. Ask again later.
Meanwhile, Michigan has a solid candidate to do Butt stuff in Ian Bunting. Still a difficult ask for anyone to live up to Butt's ability to reel in anything in his area.
The interior OL. At guard, a dropoff is unlikely from a true freshman and a guy who ended up –12 on the season per PFF. Michigan needs to do much more than tread water, though. Mike Onwenu is a unique prospect at one spot, and Bredeson will either be a lot better... or playing tackle, and then the other guard spot is a series of question marks. Cole stabilizes; whether or not these guys are any good is still very much an open question.
The Pep effect. Is Pep Hamilton an upgrade on Jedd Fisch? Does it even matter when Harbaugh's running things?
MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS
Another mediocre season is in the offing unless Michigan gets a Christmas miracle an the offensive line that will probably feature one upperclassman and is 50/50 to sport another true freshman. That is a tough hill to climb for anyone. The skill positions should be good but are likely a year away from being able to offer win-games-on-our-own help—again Michigan is all but devoid of upperclassmen.
A projected Speight uptick is the main reason for optimism; it's asking a lot of him to be Andrew Luck in an environment where he's going to be running away an awful lot.
The good news is good news about 2018, when Michigan loses only a few projected contributors: Mason Cole, the fullbacks, Drake Johnson, and Ty Isaac. Whatever they find this year will enter 2018 just about unscathed.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jaylen Kelly-Powell, and Ambry Thomas are no strangers to being featured in Future Blue Originals posts; David and I scouted October’s Cass-King PSL playoff game, and Ace, David, and I took in King’s game against Southfield A&T in the Prep Kickoff Classic. With Michigan losing their top two outside receivers, Peppers at SAM, and Lewis and Stribling at corner, it seemed like the time to take another look at the three Cass and King commits that have a shot at seeing the field for Michigan in 2017.
I headed back to the Youtube mine to find another complete game film chock-full of Michigan prospects. This time we’ll take a look at the regular-season meeting between Cass Tech and King, which was played in early October on Cass’s weather-beaten field; you’ll see the sloppy field conditions come into play multiple times throughout, though not to the point where we’re unable to get a good feel for the incoming freshmen’s strengths and weaknesses. A quick aside: I’ve had this tab open since the video was posted, and in that time Mike James has uploaded more full games that would very much be of interest to Michigan fans.
[Hit THE JUMP for the scouting reports]
Kipper Nichols entered tonight's game with season totals of two field goals and two offensive rebounds in 18 minutes played.
Against Michigan, the Illinois freshman scored 13 points on 6-of-9 shooting and pulled down five offensive boards, one more than the Wolverines had as a team. Center Maverick Morgan, who averages 9.4 points per game, had 12 at halftime. At that point, the Illini were 20-for-32 from the field and had rebounded half of their missed shots; Michigan was shooting 64% and losing by 13. The second half played out in similar fashion, with Illinois stretching the lead out to 20 on four separate occasions before easing up late.
I've found the questioning of John Beilein's job security to be somewhere between reactionary and absurd for much of this season. With the defense looking unfixable even after the offseason hire of Billy Donlon, however, it's time to at least bring up the discussion, one that will only grow louder if the team continues to resemble the one that sleepwalked through tonight's game. It's a shocking development for a coach who resurrected the program, made a national title game, and won his second Big Ten title only three years ago. Beilein's offensive prowess is unquestionable; his recruiting and defensive coaching may lead to a change sooner than anyone could've reasonably expected not so long ago.
#39 Michigan (11-5, 1-2 B1G) at
#71 Illinois (11-5, 1-2 B1G)
|WHEN||9 pm ET, Wednesday|
Illinois -1 (KenPom)
Michigan -2 (Bovada)
PBP: Kevin Kugler
Analyst: Seth Davis
Right: Tracy Abrams, who's still playing for Illinois, guarding a sophomore Tim Hardaway Jr. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
As mentioned in yesterday's Basketbullets, Michigan is already edging towards "must-win" territory in games like this if they want to make the tournament.
This may go into the feelingsball realm, but Michigan has to play with a sense of urgency—especially on defense, where M's effort level seems to directly correlate with their success—that will match that of their opponent. Illinois is in virtually the same position; both teams are 1-2 in the Big Ten and among the last four teams to make the Bracket Matrix field. The Illini desperately need this home win. The Wolverines desperately need their first true road win of the season.
Both KenPom (Illinois -1) and Bovada (Michigan -2) have this as a virtual toss-up. While I hate myself for typing this, the team that plays like they want it the most should be the one that maintains their tenuous grasp on a tourney spot for at least another few days.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
|G||13||Tracy Abrams||Gr.||6'2, 185||66||20||111||No|
|Robbie Hummel, Guard Edition. Learned how to shoot while hurt, somehow.|
|G||5||Jalen Coleman-Lands||So.||6'3, 190||63||17||98||No|
|Just A Shooter™ beginning to heat up after a rough start to season.|
|G||21||Malcolm Hill||Sr.||6'6, 225||81||27||119||No|
|High-usage and efficient, versatile scorer. Draws a ton of fouls.|
|F||12||Leron Black||So.||6'7, 220||44||24||106||Very|
|Excellent rebounder on both ends. Decent finisher who gets to line.|
|C||33||Mike Thorne||Gr.||6'11, 280||37||20||105||Very|
|Decent rebounder, good finisher, bad FT shooter, not a rim protector despite size.|
|F||43||Michael Finke||So.||6'10, 230||51||18||101||No|
|Stretch four with career 52/36/64 shooting splits. Good offensive rebounder.|
|C||22||Maverick Morgan||Sr.||6'10, 245||43||20||107||Very|
|Good finisher and shot-blocker, not much of a rebounder.|
|G||1||Jaylon Tate||Sr.||6'3, 170||50||15||92||Yes|
|6-for-56 on threes in career, so he'll probably hit four of them tonight.|
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]