"He makes it really easy on you as a coach because he has tremendous football instincts," Michigan tight ends coach Jay Harbaugh said. "Things come really naturally to him. He doesn't have to see things too many times. He has a good sense for how things should look and feel, and he's a tough, physical guy."
According to a very brief release from the athletic department, redshirt sophomore offensive tackle Logan Tuley-Tillman is no longer a member of the football program.
Statement from Jim Harbaugh, J. Ira and Nicki Harris Family Head Football Coach:
“Logan Tuley-Tillman has been dismissed from the football team for conduct unacceptable for a Michigan student athlete."
Tuley-Tillman saw some action as a sixth lineman in the Utah game, so something must have transpired since then. His departure means Michigan's depth on the line is worrisome both this year and moving forward. Unless a guard slides out to tackle, the only backup tackles are now freshmen: redshirt freshman Juwann Bushell-Beatty and true freshmen Grant Newsome and Nolan Ulizio. Graham Glasgow and Ben Braden could each move to right tackle, allowing David Dawson or Patrick Kugler (when he's healthy) to slide into the lineup if need be. Michigan can stand pat for now, but if there's an injury on the line things get dicey in a hurry.
Expect Michigan to make a big push for another tackle in the 2016 class. Meanwhile, the heralded 2013 O-line haul is looking like a disaster. Kugler and Dawson still have plenty of time to contribute, but Chris Fox's career is over due to medical issues, Kyle Bosch transferred to West Virginia, Dan Samuelsen couldn't crack the two-deep and transferred, and now Tuley-Tillman is off the team.
All offseason I've been dickering around with targeting data trying to find something predictive about Michigan's receivers. Here's what I came up with:
Big makes click (WRs with <10 targets excluded)
What you're seeing is RYPR data for guys listed as sophomores on 2005-'14 rosters. I couldn't be precise because that doesn't account for redshirts, but whenever I came across a double I went with the later year. RYPR is an imperfect feelingsball stat by Bill Connelly that tries to tie in a receiver's targeting data and the nature of his offense with his raw production. The big yellow diamond around 60 targets and 70 RYPR is Darboh last year (the other diamond in the mess of barely targeted dudes is Chesson).
What I like about the chart above is it's the first one that seems to put the guys who wound up really productive dramatically above average. Gallon and Manningham are floating well above the dotted line, Greg Mathews is way below it, and Darboh, Funchess (who spent part of that season as a TE), and Roundtree are kinda on it, despite a big spread in number of targets.
The Michigan sample's small, but the vast majority of guys above dotted line as sophomores wound up NFL picks. RYPR/targets in fact was more predictive than RYPR itself. NFL draft picks averaged 1.43 RYPR/Tgts versus 1.05 for those not drafted. The graph isn't dramatic (again click to make it big) but it's at least useful for setting a baseline:
I noted some outliers among the undrafted: Jarrett Boykin (3.05 in 2009) spent three years on the Packers, starting for half of 2013. Billy Pittman had his big year with Vince Young but had a kind of palsy, got hit with one of the dumbest NCAA penalties ever (7 games for sharing his friend's car for the summer) and was an old man already by his combine. And Da'Rick Rogers left Tennessee after failing three drug tests, was the best receiver in FCS for a year, and has bounced around practice rosters since. As for those still playing, they're among the best in FBS: Tyler Boyd (Pitt), Pharoh Cooper (S Car), Will Fuller (ND), Michael Thomas (OSU) and Corey Coleman (Baylor) are all juniors this year. Sanity test: passed.
Remember these guys are all getting at least 10 targets as sophomores for a Power 5 or BCS school. Since that pack doesn't bother spreading out until 20 targets let's reset and from there and see what it says about about the future NFL draft picks versus the future pros in something else.
|As Sophomore||Players||Avg Yds||Avg Tgts||Avg RYPR||RYPR/Tgts|
Simply getting usage at Power 5/BCS team at this point gives you better than a 1 in 4 chance of getting drafted, about the same, we learned in previous studies, as a 4-star recruit. If Darboh was a guy who stood out in that stat I'd be excited, but he was pretty average. Still I'm interested to see what happened to the guys in Darboh's vicinity.
[After the Jump: guys who looked like Darboh]
About Last Week
“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single Butt. “
~ Lao Tzu
The Road Ahead
Oregon State (1-0, 0-0 PAC-12)
Last week: Defeated Weber State, 26-7
Recap: You’re going to have to resist the impulse to skip ahead to the Indiana and Penn State sections. I know why you’re here. You’re here for the snark. But you must be patient. We’ll get there. And in the meantime, there is some important information between here and there.
It’s hard to draw too many conclusions this early, but Oregon State struggling early with an FCS team that finished 2-10 last year does not bode particularly well for the Beavers to make a shocking breakthrough this year. The Beavs were up 6-0 at the half, and while the defense held the Fightin’ Hibachis in check all game (their only score was a pick-6), the offense, and in particular the passing game, were meh. True freshman Seth Collins went 10-18 for 92 yards (5.1 YPA), but managed to pick up 152 yards on 17 carries. Fantastically-named running back Storm Woods averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and didn’t break anything longer than 8 yards.
This team is as frightening as: 2009 Michigan when Denard was under center. Fear Level = 5
Michigan should worry about: Michigan just got done giving up an uncomfortable number of yards on the ground to a quarterback, both this week and, like, this century.
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan opens as a 14 point favorite. No team has ever lost when favored by 14 or more points.
When they play Michigan: Presumably Michigan will provide a stouter test than Weber State. Otherwise… let’s just say I haven’t completely ignored the need to prepare a stock of Emergency Bourbon.
This week: @ Michigan, 12:00
UNLV (0-1, 0-0 MWC)
Last week: Lost to Northern Illinois, 38-30
Recap: Maybe this says more about the state of UNLV football than anything, but that looks like a pretty promising result for the Rebels. Even though they gave up 545 yards (including 360 yards passing at 13.8 YPA), they put up 493 yard, and actually had a 17-3 lead late in the first half. They’re probably still a tomato can.
Side note: How are they “the Rebels?” I’m not even asking in a your-mascot-is-probably-not-ideal-in-the-21st-century way. Nevada wasn’t a part of the confederacy. In fact, they joined the Union DURING the Civil War. They were the exact opposite of a rebel. I’m hard-pressed to think of a less fitting mascot, other than maybe the Utah Jazz.
A thing that makes no sense.
This team is as frightening as: Having gas while on a first date. Odds are, you can avoid the problem. But if you let up at the wrong time… Fear Level = 3
Michigan should worry about: Michigan has struggled to some degree with a cupcake non-conference game pretty much every year since 2006. This is the only cupcake game on the schedule, Popular Mechanics commentary notwithstanding. Therefore…
Michigan can sleep soundly about: Did you read the part where they gave up 13.8 yards per pass?
When they play Michigan: You will spend all week talking about Vegas in a Foghorn Leghorn accent. Your friends/classmates/coworkers will think this odd.
This week: vs. UCLA, 10:30 p.m. At home. Wait… wut?
[AFTER THE JUMP: Turtles and Rocks]
[ED (Seth): Michigan comes home on Saturday, and for the first time in what feels like a long time the spirit of a Michigan home opener is congenial tailgating. It is clear that the number one thing that makes a tailgate is who you're there with. But the quality of the product on the gridiron matters much.
To that end we have engaged the services of Joe Pichey, the Jim Harbaugh of barbecuing, to share his weekly recipes. With him comes Stubb's, who sponsors it because their CEO is an avid MGoBlog reader and appreciator of things done right for the right reasons.]
The secret ingredient is lasting lessons
Country style ribs have been a favorite of mine as long as I can remember. I can recall getting a whiff of these while playing tackle football half way down the block in Fenton as Mom baked them in the oven. Thanks Mom for starting my PORK ADDICTION!
There is something about the smell of melting pork fat that takes me back. Tender...Juicy.....Flavorful......Comforting. These can made in under 3 hours and will not break the bank, which makes them perfect for the tailgate. The 2 - 3 hour cook window is the perfect time to start a new book. Hint Hint.
Country Style Ribs
Stubbs BBQ Seasoning
Stubbs Sweet Heat or Sticky Sweet Sauce
[After the jump: it's not gratuitous product placement if the product makes it tastier]
Did you ask Mike Riley for a scouting report here on Oregon State’s personnel or anything?
“No, it’s so different. The schemes are so different. There’s not a lot of carryover from what I remember us doing at Oregon State back in the day or I remember him doing the last few years.”
MGoQuestion: Is Khalid Hill 100% and will he see more time going forward?
“Yeah, yeah. He’s healthy to my knowledge and he’s going to continue contributing for us.”
Can you share a little bit about your decision to go to Oregon State and the whole process, because your dad had the connection with Riley a little bit.
“Mmhmm. Yeah, that was the connection really was that he played for Reily so it was the kind of deal where I knew I could go there and be well looked after and learn under a really good leader who treats people well. So, that was kind of the most important part of the thing.”
They gave you a lot of responsibility, though, as a student.
“Yeah, I don’t know why they gave me so much. They were very trusting, but the guys there were really good in terms of teaching and giving me responsibility but then giving you tools to get things done and trusting you, so I greatly appreciated that.”
You’re still pretty young. In the past few years since then do you think you’ve learned more than most coaches would at your age?
“Uh…I don’t know. That’s a tough question. To compare to other people I’m not really sure, but I would hope so.”
[After THE JUMP: I got shut down in the interest of protecting play calls and it was actually pretty awesome]
What did you think of the secondary against Utah?
“We expected more higher energy out of our players and more competitive spirit. I don’t think- I think they went into the game playing more cautiously than just relying on what they learned in camp. And I know with our older guys, you know, Jarrod Wilson and Jourdan Lewis, they’re going to make a difference for this week. I know they’re going to make sure that we up the tempo this week in playing the defense in the secondary.”
Were you pleased with your corners in coverage?
“I was. I mean, I was. Can it be better? Yes, it can be much better. Same with the safeties. One thing, I don’t try to divide it. I think corners and safeties should all be together, so if the corners look good the safeties look good, if the safeties looks good the corners look good. The coverage overall, I thought it was fair. It could have been much better than what it was. The one thing we strive on is not letting up a big play and we pretty much gave up one big play in the game. Sometimes you can’t give up those plays, so I think we have to be a more aggressive defense in the secondary, which our defense allows us to do that. We just have to get it done.”
Did you feel like Jabrill kind of trusted his instincts a little more in the second half?
“I did. I did. Jabrill came out [and] I think it was more nerves rather than just playing, because this was actually his third game. You know, so he’s still really a true freshman. One of the things Jabrill I think has to do is just trust his instincts, because he’s really very instinctive. One of the things I think he has to do a lot more is just play within himself. He’s trying to get out there and use his speed rather than thinking about the game, and I think that’s what got him in trouble early in the first half. I think he’ll bounce back, just like all our guys will.”
At the start of fall camp Jeremy Clark was a safety and Wayne Lyons was at corner. What’s the reason for that swap?
“Well, we just felt that Jeremy Clark could bring a lot more to the table at corner because he’s long, he’s tall, he’s quick. You know, he could use his hands a lot more and he can run with the big guys, the big receivers in the Big Ten and we felt Wayne was more instinctive as a safety, and he plays in space a lot better back there in the middle of the field so that was one of the reasons we made that change.”
[After THE JUMP: Aggressively pursuing aggressiveness and Freddy Canteen the WR?]