gambling establishment etc
FORMATION NOTES: Michigan spent every snap in their nickel. This was fairly typical.
That also shows what I called "shotgun triangle" for IU. Wynn is lined up in the backfield behind the QB, but it's shotgun depth, not pistol. Wynn would always motion out after a hand-wave from the QB; this was always a decoy.
Michigan did show a few okie packages. This is Okie two; I designate them by the number of safeties.
SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Boatloads. Avery went back to safety and spotted Gordon and Wilson from time to time. This led to a lot of Stribling and Lewis, as Michigan played every snap in their nickel. Countess and Taylor did not leave the field, IIRC.
At linebacker the usual Ross/Morgan/Bolden rotation saw Ben Gedeon join. The line was the usual profusion of bodies. Clark or Ojemudia was usually one end with one of Beyer/Ryan/CGordon the other. On the interior, Washington, Black, Wormley, Henry and Heitzman seemed to split snaps almost evenly. Glasgow also got in some.
[After THE JUMP: go go go go go go go go go go]
Before I post a partial transcript of John Beilein's press conference, a few player interviews, and photo galleries from both Eric and Bryan, here are my main takeaways from yesterday's basketball media day:
- First and foremost, John Beilein is serious about playing two bigs and having a lot of lineup versatility—this sentiment echoed from Beilein himself down through the players, almost all of whom discussed playing multiple roles in some capacity. Everything from Walton/Spike/Stauskas/GRIII/McGary to LeVert/Stauskas/GRIII/McGary/Morgan is on the table; this team can play small or go very, very big—both Stauskas and LeVert are capable of running the point.
- Mitch McGary's health is a major question mark. Beilein isn't sure if he'll be ready for the first exhibition game—it certainly didn't seem like it—and would only say he's "day-to-day" when asked about a timetable. When asked about the nature of the injury, McGary responded that it wasn't an injury, but a "lower back condition" that the team is being cautious about right now. That's obviously a point of concern, even though McGary maintained that he felt good about where he's at right now and the upcoming season. He's definitely missing critical practice time—Beilein noted that he hasn't had a chance to practice his perimeter defense, a crucial area for improvement if McGary is going to be able to play the four.
- The physical development of the sophomores has been rather remarkable. Glenn Robinson III's improved vertical is getting a lot of attention—yes, he touched 12'3", maxing out Michigan's device for measuring vertical leaps—and similar gains have been made by Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert. All three look noticeably more muscular; though LeVert is still very much on the skinny side, he's no longer rail-thin, and Stauskas appears capable of playing the three if need be. GRIII, meanwhile, looks the part of an NBA player.
- When asked about their new break-the-huddle mantra this year, Beilein responded that it's simply "champions"—whether that applies to the Puerto Rico Invitational, the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, the Big Ten regular- and post-season crowns, or even loftier goals. Last year's team took the expectations to an entirely new level; it's clear this team is comfortable with that.
For direct quotes from Beilein, player interviews with Jon Horford, Jordan Morgan, and Derrick Walton, and photo galleries from media day, hit the jump.
Pictured, the closest defenders Jeremy Gallon saw all day [Upchurch]
1. The Six Factors
|Field Pos||Early Conv||Bonus Yds||Avg 3rd Dist||Adj 3rd Conv||Red Zone|
So, that was a lot of bonus yards. Michigan’s 385 yards beyond the first down mark was the highest mark in college football this year (largely because the game was close and all second half plays counted, unlike say every Baylor game this year). It was the 11th highest total since 2003 and narrowly edged the 2010 Indiana game (by 2 yards) for the highest mark for Michigan in the time period. For comparison, Purdue has 399 bonus yards on the season so far.
Add in Indiana’s 270 yards and this was the highest total for any game this season and the 13th highest total since 2003. There were a lot of big plays in this game. Also, not a lot of third downs, especially long ones and the ones that did occur were converted at a high rate, even after accounting for their short distance. The offenses may have done OK in this one. The important thing is that Michigan’s offense was better than Indiana at virtually all of these things, even if Indiana did pretty well themselves.
2. Individual Game Scores
Devin Gardner: +29.9 EV+, +118% WPA (1st)
The top quarterback score of the season, even after adjusting for what the average offense does against Indiana. This game finished as the #10 QB performance since 2003 and the second best B1G QB score behind CJ Bacher against Michigan State in 2007
Fitzgerald Toussaint: –1.8 (+5.3 before opp. adjustment), +11% (90th)
On the one hand, it was great to see some success from Toussaint, on the other hand, after adjusting for the Indiana factor, it was actually below average. At this point, my expectations are pretty low for the traditional running game. Toussaint had some nice success but given how bad Indiana was and that he still was only at 4.0 YPC until the final run, I don’t see things getting significantly better for him down the brutal November stretch.
Jeremy Gallon: +29.5, +84% (1st, obvs)
So this was a nice game for #21. This blew the doors off of any other receiving performance in the last 11 seasons. Gallon broke Stedman Bailey’s record set last year against Baylor by nearly 15%. I put together a quick chart of Gallon’s projected yards throughout the game.
After the first 70 yarder the pace shot up to nearly 600 yards and never dropped below 300 from then on. It was pretty amazing to see all the On Pace For jokes throughout the day and see that in the end, some of them undershot the final total.
Devin Funchess: +6.8, +15% (49th)
Tre Roberson: +15.5, +54% (4th)
Nate Sudfeld: –0.3, –6% (63rd)
Tevin Coleman: +5.6, +14% (11th)
Kofi Hughes: +9.3, 29%, (22nd)
Cody Latimer: +7.4, +19% (39th)
3. Game Chart
The six biggest plays of the game:
6. 11.1% Roberson runs for a 15 yard TD/Gardner hits Gallon for a 50 yard TD
5. –11.5% Tempo hits Michigan for the opening 59 yard TD pass
4. +14.2% Gordon picks off Sudfeld
3. +17.1% Gardner to
Roundtree Gallon for 70 yards
2. –18.3% Michigan fumbles the snap at the doorstep of the goal line
1. –20.3% Roberson to Hughes (through Stribling) for 67 yards to bring Indiana within a two point conversion
4. Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week
Last week featured a couple of coaches who punted to win. Both Butch Jones at Tennessee and Bronco Mendenhall at BYU called for punts while trailing with under 4 minutes left in the game. Those made not have been the optimal choices, but both coaches managed to get the stops and convert the stops into game winning scores.
Brian Kelly went for the punt on 4th and 3 from the USC 38.
Northern Illinois and CMU will share this week’s award. Northern Illinois punted on 4th and 3 from the CMU 35 yard line. This happened in a game where Jordan Lynch set the single game rushing record and averaged nearly 10 yards a carry on 32 carries! CMU shares the award by punting away to Northern Illinois with 5 minutes left while trailing by 13 points. Somewhere Gary Andersen is nodding in approval.
Bonus Dumb FG of the week: Arizona State took it to Washington early, and Washington was facing a 4th and goal from the 9 midway through the third trailing by 20 points. Rather than push to truly get back in the game, the Huskies opted for the chip shot field goal to cut it from a three score lead to a smaller three score lead. Going for in on 4th and Goal from the 9 is usually not a no-brainer, but when trailing by 20 in the second half, there isn’t a great case for the field goal.
5. State of the Stats
The Six Factors for all teams can still be found here
- Devin Gardner’s record setting day has him up to fifth in the season QB totals (+11.5) behind Bryce Petty (+14.7), Johnny Manziel (+13.7), Marcus Mariota (+12.5) and Aaron Murray (+11.9).
- No player has been more instrumental to his team’s success than Gardner who has accumulated a season high 3.8 wins on the season and is still in first in terms of team replacement value, with Michigan 117 points better when he rushes or passes versus an average play from any other player.
- Jeremy Gallon’s big day has moved him up to #4 on the season at +9.9 behind Antwan Goodley (+11.5), Mike Evans (+11.5) and Brandin Cooks (+10.4).
- Devin Funchess is inside the top 40 at +5.8 and is third among all players listed as tight ends behind Jace Amaro of Texas Tech and Eric Ebron of North Carolina.
- Next week I’ll dive into the details behind Michigan State, but the offense defense splits are getting absurd at this point. The Spartan offense is ranked 100+ in four of the five defense independent factors and the defense is top 10 on three metrics.
With no game this week, we’ll take a look at the season projection for Michigan. My numbers are more optimistic than most on the prospects for the remainder. I have Michigan as a favorite in all remaining games, with @NW, Nebraska and @Iowa listed as reasonable ~60% odds. My numbers aren’t big fans of either Michigan State or Ohio State, largely due to schedule concerns for both and offensive woes for Michigan State.
Next week I’ll dig more into the MSU numbers, but for now I have listed the original numbers as yellow and optimistic projections and a more realistic assessment (noted here as Pessimistic) of Michigan’s chances versus its two main rivals. Depending on your take on the games, this season is projecting to 9-10 wins, but with all the remaining games competitive, a lot of different outcomes are still on the table.
Meta: Chicagoans—if we did a Q&A-type event downtown the night before NW'ern would you come? Jared of SPW offered to host it as part of his killer Northwestern package; trying to gauge interest.
As per tradition, bye week Saturday is Wife Day, when sports fans stop to appreciate those who married us—only to discover they had also married this thing that makes us sometimes psychotic, often inconsolable, and constantly spending vast sums for tickets and road trips and apparel. Oh, you are perfectly right to bitch about somebody who plans their wedding on any October Saturday (I hope your every anniversary falls on top of a rivalry game, a hated hockey opponent, the opening throws of basketball season, and the World Series). But let's recognize—male and female (17% of our readership)—that this does make us a particularly needy breed of spouse.
Weeklies: Gifs and F+-ing. Best and Worst made a comic book reference I actually got, and points out the defense was actually doing a good job until the point in the 2nd quarter when they got Roberson'd. He rightly calls out the staff for still making major offensive line changes this late in the season, though I think we're happy they made them. Inside the Box score also brought up the O-line carousel:
* Midway through the first quarter, Joey Burzynski got hurt. So let's review our situation at Left Guard this year. Glasgow started the season there, only to move to center in an attempt to shore up the middle. Chris Bryant was the next man in. He's either injured or not as effective as the staff would like, so he was replaced by Burzynski. When he got hurt, Kyle Bosch entered the lineup. Yep, our 4th string left guard.
Turns out the offensive line should have been playing Indiana all along.
…and a chicken coop parade for ND, and CMU as the crying Indian in that don't-litter commercial from the '80s, and Akron/UConn as Indiana Jones obstacles. These are going to be weekly he says.
More F/+ please! Here is dnak439 with an updated chart of Big Ten teams by Fremeau's F/+: offense (y-axis) and defense (x-axis).
Hooray for being in the good quadrant; hard to believe MSU's offense is as good (bad?) as Penn State's. Iowa's tracking higher than Northwestern since AIRBHG whiffed on Weisman and nailed the Wildcats' entire backfield. Dnack also made a thing that tracks your rooting interest to get Michigan the Bo Division crown.
[Jump for new and improved Stauskas, GRIII levitates, hand checking enforcement effect on Big Ten teams, the Seeya! chant]
HELLO! HI! I AM BLUE! I AM A TUBE! I HOPE AT LEAST TEN OTHER STUDENTS MAKE BLUE TUBES! HELLO! ISN'T LIFE EXICTING!
THING NOTES: Torrent had no audio this week, so neither do the clips. Good news for people who get creeped out by the walrus lovemaking noises in the slow ones.
FORMATION NOTES: A note on nomenclature here: Indiana had a kind of weird system where they had a linebacker/safety type (6'1", 225) out over the slot.
That in itself isn't too weird against spread formations, but he still hung out over the slot when there was one in I-form twins packages and the like, and Indiana brought down a safety.
I designated IU formations with that guy in the gray area (and no safety down) "nickel" since the defensive formation thing is more about what the O is looking at than personnel packages the opponent has in and I felt their slot LB was a Hybrid Space Player, but I understand if you think IU was just in a 4-3 all game.
As for Michigan, they did not do much exotic in terms of formations. A lot of shotgun 3-wide stuff, some ace, some I-Form, etc. A couple things: I've changed Funchess to a WR in my personnel set tracking, so if you see "shotgun 3-wide" with four WRs that's because Funchess is the TE-type-substance. Also, when there are only four skill position players that's because Michigan has brought in an extra offensive lineman. Tackle over was still employed but rather rare.
SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Hoo boy. First: QB and RB were pretty obvious, with Green getting more run than he has in some other games in the past. FB was about split between Kerridge and Houma.
WR was a ton of Gallon and Funchess. Dileo went out early with an injury, leaving Jeremy Jackson to pick up most of the slot snaps. Chesson got in a bit but has clearly ceded a lot of PT to Funchess; Reynolds got a few snaps.
TE was mostly Butt and Williams; Williams ceded snaps to a sixth OL and also Jordan Paskorz, who got in some good blocks in the middle of the game. Funchess also lined up at TE from time to time.
And the OL. Burzynski started, tore his ACL, was replaced by Bosch. Glasgow was the C. Lewan was the LT, Magnuson the RG, Schofield the RT, except when guys were flipping all over the place. This game's version of tackle over was almost always a 6 OL with Kalis reclaiming his RG spot and Lewan flanking someone else: Schofield on the left and Magnuson on the right. Much less likely to get your QB murdered.
I noted OL changes in the notes below. Anyone not mentioned is playing their usual position. Apologies for cutesy name shortenings, but you try writing "Burzynski" and "Magnuson" for 80 plays. (Schofield defies shortening.)
[After the JUMP: nuclear samba Gallon.]
Michigan opens the season on—[checks
watch smartphone]—oh lord, Tuesday, so it's time to get to this previewin' business. Of course, we already have an entire book dedicated to this, and you should probably check that out, as it goes into far more detail than I'm capable of doing here.
I'm dividing up the team like we did in the book for the positional previews: bigs, wings, and point guards. For the purposes of this preview, I'm considering Glenn Robinson III a wing, though he'll get plenty of run as the nominal power forward when Michigan goes to a smaller, more Beilein-friendly lineup. On that note, let's start with the men up front.
Measurables: 6'10", 255
Base Stats: 19.7 minutes, 7.5 points, 59.8 FG%, 44.2 FT%, 6.3 rebounds
Key Advanced Metrics: 16.0 OR% (10th nationally), 22.4 DR% (86th), 3.9 Blk%, 2.4 Stl%
After Jordan Morgan's ankle injury near the end of the 2012-13 regular season, Mitch McGary ascended from highly-touted freshman energy guy to do-everything future All-American with a remarkable run in the NCAA tournament. McGary averaged 14.3 points and 10.7 rebounds in the Big Dance, dished out six assists (previous career high: two) to break the vaunted Syracuse 2-3 zone in the national semifinal, recorded eight steals in two games against Kansas and Florida, and generally performed like a guy once considered a top-two prospect in his class.
The tournament performance vaulted McGary onto just about every preseason All-American list, often as the first-team center. That's a lot of hype generated largely by a six-game stretch, though McGary—who started his freshman year slow after an injury hampered his conditioning—displayed flashes of greatness from the get-go, pulling down rebounds and forcing turnovers at a very high rate all season.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the big man breakdown, with some bonus '90s rap nostalgia.]