never again please

Dude. Larry. We have to talk:

Coming off a 2-27 season, the Bulldogs will play at Michigan at Crisler Center on Thursday, Dec. 21, according to a contract for the game obtained by MLive. U-M will pay Alabama A&M a guarantee of $95,000 for making the trip.

Coach Willie Hayes' team finished No. 351 out of 351 teams in both the RPI and Kenpom's efficiency ranking in 2016-17.

Its lone wins came over Mississippi Valley State (344) and Prairie View A&M (313). The Bulldogs finished last in the Southwestern Athletic Conference.

This is literally the worst possible game Michigan can schedule. Not only is it an offensive blowout in the making the likes of the Delaware State football game, it is poison to Michigan's RPI. Any SWAC team is an anchor; the worst SWAC team is even more so. A win against a team like Alabama A&M hurts your RPI. It would be better to simply not play that game.

Compounding matters:

John Beilein has previously indicated that there's a chance Michigan will not play a 31-game slate. He told reporters at the NBA Draft Combine that due to a condensed schedule -- the result of two Big Ten games being moved to early December and the conference tournament being moved a week earlier to Feb. 28-March 4 -- he will not shoehorn in an ill-advised game simply to get to 31.

You're not even going to play a full schedule because of Jim Delany! If you've opened the door to not playing games, this is the game you do not play. Nobody buying a season ticket is going to miss it. You are actively harming your RPI by playing it. An intrasquad scrimmage would be better preparation for the rest of the season. There is literally no reason to do this. And yet. Here we are.

I wrote about how to make your schedule pretty five years ago. (Not coincidentally, Alabama A&M was on the schedule that year as well.) Find high-win teams from lower leagues who you have a 98% chance of beating instead of a 99% chance. This has a material impact on your NCAA seedings, as this year's tournament amply demonstrated. A patently undeserving Minnesota got a five-seed this year because they paid attention to the RPI's flaws:

MN is a 5 because their NCSOS is 27. It is 27 because MN played the following 20 win luminaries.

— mgoblog (@mgoblog) March 12, 2017

They don't have boat anchors like Maryland-ES, Kenesaw State, Howard, and Central Arkansas.

— mgoblog (@mgoblog) March 12, 2017

That and that alone was why Minnesota got a 5 seed and Wisconsin, which had a superior resume by any measure that was not an archaic and barely-tuned formula, got an 8. This matters, and every year Michigan plays two to four of the worst teams in the country. You're killing your father, Larry.

Previously: Last year's profiles. S J'Marick Woods, S Jaylen Kelly-Powell, S Brad Hawkins, CB Ambry Thomas, CB Benjamin St-Juste, LB Drew Singleton, LB Jordan Anthony.

I did it too. I did this:

[Ross's] status as a Michigan lock for the vast majority of his recruitment has relegated him to an underrated status among most casual fans.

Josh Ross was a Michigan lock from the minute he stepped on the field at OLSM his freshman year, and he committed a year ago, and I've been all about the other two linebackers in this class. This is because Ross has been as out of sight, out of mind as it's possible for a consensus top 250 player to be. Then I watched the tape above.

Linebacker tape is often a compilation of comical offensive busts on which the LB in question gets to shoot into a ballcarrier without anyone even trying to block him. Ross's tape is not that. Ross stacks and sheds repeatedly—once he even does so on offense, violently discarding a DE to get into a route—before getting to the ballcarrier and terminating him with extreme prejudice. Another genre of play in that reel is Ross reading an attacking before an OL attempting to zone him can make contact. He cuts through trash; he times a number of blitzes immaculately; he shows sideline to sideline range. It's just a highlight tape. But it's a good-ass highlight tape.

Heck of a play by Josh Ross. Shoots the gap. Knows exactly where the play is going. No wasted steps with him https://t.co/jRtanieYAZ

— Clint Brewster (@clintbrew247) March 22, 2016

The Ross grew up in a linebacker family, and was a four year starter at OLSM who racked up more than 500 career tackles. Only the odd injury early in his career prevented him from having the maximum amount of experience an incoming freshman can have. The end result is a high school linebacker with an uncanny ability to read what's in front of him. OLSM coach George Porritt's favorite Ross anecdote is an uncanny read…

“The thing was, I knew they were running that play,” Ross said. “They ran it like five times and I knew they were running the wheel route.”

As the play began to develop Ross made his move.

“I dropped back and the running back came out on the same route,” he said. “So I went underneath him and caught the pick and ran out of bounds. I should have run to score, but I felt the game was over and we could take a knee.”

…that Ross made as a 13-year-old freshman.

The default comparison is his older brother, the ultra-instinctive James Ross. Ross was an intermittent starter and Penn State obliterator who was 5'11" in a Not Don Brown defense, and a lot of scouting reports envision Josh as that plus three inches and 30 pounds. Josh Newkirk said he "plays just like his brother" after catching him at the Opening regional in Columbus; Steve Lorenz calls him a "bigger version of his brother." Tim Sullivan:

It's unfair to compare Ross to his older brother James, but at the same time, it's almost impossible not to. In physical appearance, playing style, even facial similarity, he's a whole lot like "Biggs."

Scouting reports that aren't referencing James emphasize the rough and tumble nature of the younger Ross's play. He is a hammer in search of a nail:

• Scout: "Physical linebacker who is best when coming forward. Takes on blocks with aggressiveness and leverage and likes contact. Anticipates well and shoots gaps. A sure tackler who wraps up and drives through the ball carrier. Strengths: Instincts, Shedding Ability, Tackling Technique."
• Allen Trieu scouting him against Dewitt:  "…physical player … really comes down hill and loves contact. He is a strong kid who strikes with power. He shows good burst and straight line speed. We really like his size, physicality and his intangibles. He is a smart kid who reads keys … takes on lead blockers [very well]"
• Tim Sullivan: "reads and reacts … with outstanding quickness, and he has the physical quickness to get to the point of attack in a hurry. He doesn't quite bring the same level of violence to the ball carrier that James did in high school, but isn't far off."
• Brandon Brown: "…looks to be nearly 230 pounds. He's solid, stout, and muscular but still moves extremely well. …repeatedly took on very large offensive linemen before shedding the block and searching for his gap. … strong, athletic, in very good shape, highly intelligent, a natural leader, and loves contact. "
• Clint Brewster: "…great instincts and gets a beat on the play with a quick first step. His ability to shoot a gap and blow up the ball carrier is uncanny. … won't give ground and will meet the ball carrier or fullback in the right hole and not get pushed backwards. … plays really fast but with a controlled aggressiveness. …exciting closing burst and plays with great confidence."
• Chris Partridge: "He's physical, he's tough, and he's hard-nosed. He is one of those guys you think about when you think Michigan football and the level of physicality we play with here. He is going to be a middle linebacker for us."
• Don Brown: "… tremendous fundamental linebacker. He is also an excellent blitzer. He is an aggressive player and a great tackler, and his fundamentals are off the charts. Josh plays with tremendous passion at the linebacker position."
• Porritt: “reacts to the ball so well and (has) that instinctive ability to get to the ball. He’s got a lot of strength and power and is an intelligent kid. Works at the game, loves the game and plays it with passion.”

Takes continue in that vein: "takes on blockers with the best of them," "classic big, physical MIKE backer." Etc.

The one exception to these takes is ESPN's, which may be (read: is) based on his junior year, and sounds more like a viper(!!!) than a MLB:

…explosive, big-play linebacker with an attack mentality. Lacks ideal length/range for an OLB and size/power of an ILB prospect. …Beats blockers to ball with quickness. Slips through seams between the tackles more than stacks and sheds with physicality. … Transitions smoothly in coverage and shows good range and athleticism. Quick to level off in zone, read the QB, underneath route development and close on targets with terrific timing, burst and balance. Does not project to be a guy who will win many battles in a phone booth at the college level; most production should come from his instincts and quickness in the short-area.

That is a coverage LB who needs to be sheltered from lead blockers and is not the player described by the other three sites.

In fact, those other sites think Ross's main drawback is coverage. While there were some positive mentions in early camp sessions, by the time he was a mature prospect it was consistently mentioned as the proverbial Area For Improvement. Scout's profile mentions he "can continue to get quicker and improve in pass coverage," and when it came time for Sam Webb to discuss Michigan's linebacker contingent at the Opening the phrases were along the lines of "a little stiff," "held his own," "adequate in coverage," and "can and will show better with the pads on."

The other source of dissent is, awkwardly, Future Blue Originals. Ace took in the 2015 OLSM-De La Salle game and came away a bit disappointed:

I'm still waiting for Ross to put it all together … still has moments when he gets taken out of plays, not because of his physical talent, but because he can be hesitant. … A big issue is Ross still hasn't developed any moves to shed blocks; unless Ross had a lot of momentum going and could bash through a guy, once a lineman got his hands on Ross he was effectively neutralized. … if the switch is flipped his ceiling is very high—he's big, fast, and relatively fluid for an inside linebacker.

A year later in the same game, Adam saw considerable development:

… packs a heck of a punch …. There are no light or glancing blows; every hit is a hit. Unsurprisingly, he was consistently able to take on blockers and knock them back. The play at 1:00 is a nice example of this, as Ross bashes the tackle and ricochets off, which allows him to slow down the back and assist on the tackle. … (2:00) sees Ross knock back a blocker, escape, pull up to avoid a fallen offensive lineman, pursue toward the sideline, and make the tackle before the back can turn the corner.

I ran Ross's tape by Ace to see if his opinion changed and he did say that the senior version of Ross was displaying abilities Ace hadn't seen in person.

Per Lorenz, Michigan projects him to middle linebacker. Brown did mention he could play either of the fairly interchangeable ILB spots. Ditto Singleton; Anthony is a guy who will have a shot at being a linebacker version of viper(!!!) and could be a WLB. Michigan is apparently in love with all three.

Etc.: Here's an entrant for "most entertainingly overheated scouting report," 2017 edition:

Performance: Stud. Beast. Man. Animal. People from other teams — players, coaches, and parents alike — used these words to describe Ross throughout the day.

Studbeast Manimal is a 2020 recruit out of Louisiana.

Why Ben Gedeon? Uncannily close fit in terms of recruiting accolades—Gedeon was composite #215—and frame—he was listed at 6'3", 220. Gedeon became a hard-nosed middle linebacker with good range; his main problem was covering in space. Selected NFL.com draft profile takes:

Keeps pads square. Does a good job of punching blockers early and keeping himself in position to make a play. Shows ability to play off of block and keep his contain shoulder clean. Doesn't fly downhill unnecessarily. Plays with instincts in the middle. Processes well sifting through blocks and bodies to find the ball carrier. … Just an average athlete. … Lacks pursuit speed and reactive athleticism to consistently secure tackles in space. Gets engulfed at times and lacks a counter to unhinge quickly from a player's length. … Man coverage responsibilities could become a chore.

Gedeon got locked behind Desmond Morgan and Joe Bolden, the latter inexplicably, before emerging into a starter and fourth round pick his senior year. Ross probably needs a year to get up to the 230-240 range Gedeon finished in, but from there should be a viable candidate to start in the middle.

Other comparables include Morgan (the best stack-n-shed Michigan linebacker in recent memory but more athletically limited than Ross projects to be) and, yes, his brother.

Guru Reliability: Exacting. Zero projection, Opening appearance, ton of scouting opportunities, near-total agreement.

Variance: Low. Already technically advanced, zero projection, minimal size questions.

Ceiling: High. May just lack the top end athleticism that would make him an early NFL draft pick. Otherwise seems to have the total package.

General Excitement Level: High. High ceiling multiplied by high likelihood he hits that ceiling equals high excitement level.

Projection: Like the other two linebackers in the class there will be an apprenticeship year followed by a multi-way war for the open MLB spot created by Mike McCray's graduation. With apologies to the guys already on campus, it appears the leader going into that war will be the freshman who gets the most playing time and practice hype this year. Prior to doing this profile I thought that was unlikely to be Ross; now I'd give him at least as much of a shot as anyone else, and maybe more since he projects as a thumper in the middle more cleanly than Singleton or Anthony.

Scout Rankings Update: Milton Gets Fourth Star

When quarterback Joe Milton committed to Michigan a little over a month ago, Scout was the only site that didn't rank him as a four-star. After last week's rankings update, that's no longer the case; Milton jumped to #261 overall. While movement was relatively minor for Michigan's other commits, their top uncommitted target at quarterback, Tyler Shough, also leaped up the rankings:

Shough checks in to the Scout 300 at No. 182 and is one of two quarterbacks out West to jump in to the 300 along with Camm Cooper. The Chandler (Ariz.) Hamilton signal caller saw his stock soar this off-season with scholarship offers flying in from all over the country. After seeing him up close at the Elite 11 Finals over the weekend, it was easy to see why. Shough is a pure passer with a great feel for the position. He has a smooth, easy delivery, is smart with the football and among the most accurate quarterbacks in the country. California, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina and South Carolina are his finalists.

Michigan remains in excellent shape there.

HARBAUGH

DeSoto CB @GreenGemon dislocated his shoulder on a pass break up. He then popped it back in and broke up a pass on the next play.

— Mike Roach (@MikeRoach247) June 10, 2017

Harbaugh.

(Green is fine, by the way.)

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the roundup.]

Bork! Last night Carl Hagelin had a case of deja vu when a ref blew the play dead despite a very loose puck in the crease. Luckily for him, the grave miscarriage of justice happened to the other team this time. Result:

Congrats @CarlHagelin and @kporter12 on winning back-to-back Stanley Cups! #ProBlue 〽 pic.twitter.com/jRrIrXZi6r

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) June 12, 2017

Hagelin had the empty-netter to seal it, and that's Carl Hagelin: the guy you put on the ice with a minute left when you're up 1-0 in game six of the Stanley Cup finals. Congrats to the Penguins and their veritable horde of college hockey alums; nuts to all the people who call Sidney Crosby "Cindy."

Better than perfect. I don't know how Michigan is claiming a 1006 APR for one year, but they are indeed:

Leaders and Best — on the field and in the classroom. #GoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/znriaTZJhE

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) June 7, 2017

This is a much better thing to try to figure out than "what score do they need to not get nailed?"

Amateurism is bad and dumb, part 300. UCF has a kicker. You probably did not know this but could extrapolate it from facts. It is a certainty that no one wants to give this kicker money for playing college football. He plays for Central Florida. He is a kicker. He has zero career field goals. But he's also a minor Youtube star with 52,000 subscribers. Fly, meet nuclear bomb:

On Saturday, June 10, De La Haye uploaded a new YouTube video titled, “Quit college sports or quit YouTube?”. In the video, the kicker showed up to a meeting at the football offices exclaiming he felt like it was Judgement Day.

“Everything’s going to go well,” he said in the video. “We’re just going to talk about ways that I can keep doing what I’m doing and follow the rules.”

It’s unclear who the meeting was with, but upon returning, De La Haye said he was basically given an ultimatum of choosing between football or YouTube videos.

“The meeting went well, but it didn’t go well at the same time,” he said. “Basically, I’m not allowed to make any money off of my YouTube videos. I’m working hard basically as a job — filming, editing and things of that sort, and I’m not allowed to make any money. If I do, then bad things happen for me. I feel like they’re making me pick between my passion for what I love to do shooting videos and entertaining and my other passion, playing football.”

This isn't an anomaly. This is the ruthless logic of amateurism as practiced by the NCAA: not only will we not give you any money, but nobody else can give it to you either. Even if it has nothing to do with sports. Even if you are so obscure that you're not even an AAC school's primary kicker.

Lavall Jordan moving on up? Jordan just took over UWM but there's an opening at Butler and he almost got the job once before:

Hearing Micah Shrewsberry, LaVall Jordan and Butler assistant Ryan Pedon the primary candidates. https://t.co/pE58lTettf

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanESPN) June 10, 2017

Jordan will certainly be a person of interest when Beilein decides to hang 'em up, and Butler would be a fine platform via which to confirm or dis-confirm the idea that he should be the successor.

What is even going on in Oxford. The Ole Miss saga—I can call it a saga because it involves men in helmets bellowing nonsense and ends with an axe going through someone's forehead—takes an odd twist:

A business in Oxford, Miss., has filed a civil complaint alleging defamation that could reverberate through the University of Mississippi’s ongoing NCAA case. Rebel Rags LLC, an Oxford-based clothing company, filed the complaint Friday in Lafayette County Circuit Court.

The suit alleges defamation in the NCAA testimony of two Mississippi State football players, Leo Lewis and Kobe Jones, and also Lindsey Miller, the estranged stepfather of former Rebel star Laremy Tunsil. In Ole Miss’s response to the NCAA’s notice of allegations last week, it attempts to deny the allegations that two recruits and the family member of a recruit—Lewis, Jones and Miller—received a total of $2,800 in gear from Rebel Rags.

The store in question is named as a booster and if disassociated will lose its ability to sell Ole Miss gear. This is a slight problem for a store that only sells Ole Miss gear. Therefore this, which cannot be good for Ole Miss. Either the NCAA will pause for the outcome of a court case, lengthening the recruiting purgatory that caused Hugh Freeze to refer to his 2017 class as a penalty, or it will do whatever it's going to do anyway. The general thought is that the NCAA will do the latter, leaving this defamation lawsuit as an attempt to exact some revenge on the folks who set the Ole Miss program on fire.

What is even going on in East Lansing. Another gent who won't be playing for MSU this year:

Former Michigan State lineman Cassius Peat says he felt "blindsided" earlier this week when coaches told him he didn't have a spot on the team less than a week from when he was supposed to report to East Lansing.

Peat told the Detroit Free Press that Michigan State coaches informed him Wednesday that he shouldn't return to campus for summer workouts.

"I have respect for them, and I understand it's a business," Peat told the Free Press. "But morally, man, as a 20-year-old kid with a family, for them to do that is -- I can't even put it into words, to be honest."

Peat was the ultra-rare JUCO guy who was set to return to his original school. Since he is an ambulatory person large enough to play DL and Michigan State looks set to have two walk-ons on their DE depth chart, this could not have been voluntary on MSU's part. Peat must have failed to get by the Clearinghouse.

The number of players MSU has lost to offseason attrition is truly prodigious:

• OL Thiyo Lukusa: quits team, says he's giving up football, ends up at JUCO.
• S Drake Martinez: probably a playing time transfer
• DE Donovan Winter: dropped after armed burglary charge
• LB Jon Reshcke: dropped N-bomb on teammate
• WR Donnie Corley: charged with criminal sexual conduct
• DE Josh King: charged with criminal sexual conduct
• S Demetric Vance: charged with criminal sexual conduct
• DE Auston Robertson, charged with criminal sexual conduct
• DT Cassius Peat: probably not qualified?
• CB Kaleel Gaines: JUCO transfer, academics related?
• S Kenney Lyke: another JUCO transfer, academics related?

That might not be it, either. MSU's Scout site reported that CB Vayante Copeland and DE Robert Bowers were gone as well; Dantonio directly refuted that report but when insider sites report negative news there's almost always something to it. If those guys do end up gone MSU will be down almost an entire recruiting class of guys they expected to be on the team this fall. Add in the dismal finish to MSU's 2017 class and they're going to go into this season with a roster as depleted as a sanctioned PSU program was a few years back.

This is an amazing carousel. Via Get The Picture, an amazing thing about Florida:

Transfer quarterbacks are nothing new for Florida, which has seen six of its own quarterbacks transfer since 2010 and had signal-callers Luke Del Rio and Austin Appleby transfer in to the program. So far, the players coming in haven’t done much more than the players going out, and Zaire is hoping that all changes with him.

That's a transfer out per year. Since you usually recruit one quarterback a year… carry the two… some long division… take the cosine… that's bad.

Not bad enough for Florida to stop winning the SEC East, apparently.

Etc.: DJ Wilson #16 on the SBN mock draft. State theater renovations underway; end result will be four small theaters. Bruce Arena helped the US scratch out a draw at Azteca yesterday because he's not a goof pretending to be a coach. CMU to be a bodybag game for basketball this fall. This would be a good fix for illegal men downfield being hard to call. It's Harbaugh's job to find the loopholes though. Harbaugh goes to Washington. Wagner up to 245.

So you’ve probably noticed the content has been a little slow this summer. Some of that’s because Hail to the Victors 2017 is taking up my life, but the other huge summer project is rebuilding this site from the ground up.

THE DEVELOPERS

We’ve been working with a local outfit named Human Element. You’ve probably passed by their Kerrytown office at the corner of Detroit and Beakes (and Division and Summit and Carey and High and… you know the junction) a thousand times. Unlike our previous attempts at redeveloping the site they’re established enough to have a team and a schedule they’ve actually managed to stick to.

We’ve insisted they go by “HUEL” for obvious reasons.

Despite all the curveballs we could come up with from a 10-year-old site on a no longer supported platform, this is happening, and on time. I can’t recommend these guys enough.

THE NEW LOOK

Since we’re deep into the design phase, we saw no reason to keep it to ourselves. So here’s a preview of what we’re sort of going to look like in a couple of months (click each to see a larger size):

Normal front page	Front page when we have a major feature	Inside an article

Let me say a few things about what you’re looking at:

• No that’s not the header. That’s something one of the HUEL guys whipped up in 30 seconds. We’ve engaged MonuMental to design the new official header. That’s still in the works but his initial thoughts are encouraging:

How about Harbaugh as Conan the Barbarian on a mountain of his enemies' skulls (helmets) with background landscape and Easter eggs inspired by the last few years (Florida palm trees, Rome skyline, stacks of milk bottles) and a snarling oversized Wolverine as his companion?

Open to suggestions about what he is wielding overhead. Maybe a football exploding with light and lightning?

• It’s going to be a lot wider, since screens have become so.
• The front page has two modes. Normally there will be some boxes on the top with the latest football article, the latest recruiting article, the latest podcast, and a t-shirt or HTTV something from our store or our top sponsor UGP—these boxes will change based on whatever’s going on at the moment. When we have a featured article (e.g. UFR) it goes to mode 2, with the feature dominating the top and the boxes taking a break.
• Diaries and the Board are staying put, but your login is moving to the upper-right.
• The comments will be threaded into boxes, but after a 5 boxes they’ll stop shrinking and just appear underneath. You’ll be able to minimize a box to hide a part of the conversation and focus on the one you’re having.
• Some users will have little icons next to their names. These will signify things like this person is the OP, or one of our staff, or a moderator, or trusted contributor. Still deciding on how many badges we need—might just be site personnel and hot users (people who recently got a lot of upvotes in that thread).
• Your MGoPoints should carry over to the new site. Apparently the 3rd party module for that hasn’t been upgraded to Drupal 8 so we may have to create our own, but if it’s possible it will happen.
• We’ll be moving to a new server that should be able to handle a much greater load, so this place won’t become a disaster during high traffic events.
• Apps will be brand new and better integrated.

Your feedback is most welcome—we’re building this for you.

Y'all got two hours left for the literary event of the century. This morning we sent out a four-pager that we couldn't cram into the book itself to whet appetites and also make Seth less sad about one of his pieces missing the cut. That's how jam-packed with content this thing is. Jam-packed to the gills with mixed metaphors!

If you have been delaying through sheer laziness, now is the time to act. If you were deciding between Hail to the Victors and a ham sandwich, we cancelled ham! NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT. If you've already pledged, are a huge ham fan, and are upset that we eliminated it from stores nationwide, now is NOT the time to act. Here's a link to Zombocom instead. Anything is possible at Zombocom, except withdrawing your pledge.