also duty-free guys falling over and grabbing their shins
Johnson steady at #2. Cogliano at #22. Not sure on the other UM players, as I am not a subscriber.
I'll bet the CSB a dollar that Cogs goes a lot closer to #22 than whatever ridiculous 6th round prediction they put up in their midterm rankings.
Update: Hensick checks in at #45, again a much, much more realistic projection than the CSB's ridiculousness.
Minnesota is 5-8-1 since January started, including stellar outings like being swept by Michigan Tech and, most recently, a 1-point weekend against UAA. Despite all this suckitude, the PWR rankings still peg them as a #1 seed. I stated earlier that it woud take an "epic collapse" for Minnesota to drop from a one seed... but apparently even an epic collapse isn't good enough. How about a galactic collapse? Sure. We'll go with that.
Poking around some of the individual comparisons leads me to believe that Michigan has a slim chance of passing Minnesota. Basically, they have to pass Minnesota in the RPI to do so and keep their precarious TUC lead or have Minnesota drop a game against Tech again to give them the common opponents category.
Michigan could also pass Boston College if the Eagles stumble going into the final weeks of the season. BC has a slim RPI lead and TUC lead on Michigan but is losing the Common Opponents comparison. Michigan has two upcoming games against COp Notre Dame. BC has two against COp UNH. Unless Michigan stumbles against a wretched ND squad, they should hold onto that point. If BC loses a few down the stretch Michigan may win the TUC comparison or the RPI comparison, which would give them the point.
That might not be super helpful, however, as unless those hypothetical BC losses had them drop another comparison along the way, UM, Minnesota, and BC would be in a three way tie for two #1 seeds, and RPI would be the tiebreaker.
Bottom line: Michigan must pass Minnesota or BC in the RPI to get a #1 seed. With games against a terrible ND squad and an OK BG squad coming up, Michigan needs significant help from one of those squads. Remember that the agreed-upon guess at the committee's RPI bonuses for "good" wins, .003-.002-.001, leaves the RPI situation looking a good bit bleaker. Instead of BC and Minnesota having razor-thin RPI margins they have about a .003 margin, which is bridgeable but much tougher.
Second question: would a #1 seeded Michigan get more or less screwed? Answer: probably more, at least in the "we deserve better" sense. Minnesota would most likely be the #5 seed, and they're hosting this year, so they have to stay home, which means that most likely Michigan would play in the Twin Cities. That is, in fact, the most likely situation at the moment anyway. So the distinction is probably meaningless, but we could get more indignant about it if we were a #1 seed.
In other CCHA team news, OSU's recent run of form seems to have solidified themselves as a tourney team. NMU is just barely in of the tournament at the moment, sitting at 14th in the pairwise after the 3-2-1 bonus. They'd be in as of today if no one currently on the outside looking in (other than that AHCA and CHA teams) won their conference tourney. Northern has two against Tech, two against Ferris, and two against Lake State to finish up the year... good if they win, deadly if they lose. Four of those games are roadies. They probably won't make it, but they've got some kind of shot at least.
A Nebraska public TV station is webcasting the UNO-Michigan game tonight. 8 pm Eastern if it actually works. The last time I tried to catch a hockey game on webcast the results were mediocre at best.
In the news, detailing UM's struggles. There's a horrific sidebar that takes you back to the bad old Ellerbe days... "Searight is dismissed from the team"... "Avery Queen is dismissed from the team"... "Dommanic Ingerson transfers"... "Chuck Bailey transfers"... what a nightmare. How that guy ever coached anything other than a rec league game with his McDonalds' coworkers I'll never figure out.
The NHL season is basically toast. Could this dispute last into next year? There were predictions from various pessimistic corners that had the labor dispute doing just that, but I have to believe that the players will get some sense into their heads. Why are the owners so implacable? Because they really are losing money. And they're losing less money not playing any games. The idea that players should get a fixed portion of the revenue has made the NFL and NBA stable, profitable, and popular, but for some reason hockey players won't accept a similar arrangement.
Everybody, say it with me... OHHHHHHHHH, CYA.
As for the future? Well, the NHL will look into replacement players. (Someone call Bob Gassoff.) The draft will be cancelled, as they can't proceed without a CBA in place. Some teams may get contracted.
As for Michigan specifically... it can't hurt the chances of keeping Tambellini and/or Montoya around. NYR's Dan Blackburn has started playing again in the ECHL and will probably move the AHL eventually; if the labor dispute looks like it may drag into next year there's no way teams will start throwing money at unsigned draft picks when they can still develop for free in the NCAA. It depends on when (if?) this thing gets worked out.
Says the Free Press.
The only way that this season could get any worse would be if Scooby, Shaggy, and the gang confronted Amaker and ripped his mask off to reveal Steve Fisher, Ed Martin, and Chris Webber.