good luck with that
I'll get to the bad right away: I am an idiot and accidentally deleted the NIT championship game because Comcast's DVR box has crappy, laggy software and no undelete feature. So instead of a cool post breaking down some of the unique features of John Beilein's teams here's this picture that adequately sums up the situation:
If anyone happens to know of or is capable of creating some internets West Virginia basketball, please point it out to me. I managed to track down a torrent of their NIT game against NC State (why? I don't know) but it remains stuck at a woeful 0% downloaded after most of a day.
The good news: as noted on mgolicious, everyone on the current roster has expressed a desire to stay, including Udoh and Sims. If you need more evidence that Terry Foster is Towelie the sportswriter...
...there it is. The recruits are still up in the air, as you might expect before they've had an opportunity to talk with Beilein. Before any candidates were even identified both Harris and Grady had claimed they weren't going anywhere. Legion made a similar statement but there were significant rumblings that he was looking to bolt. Since Beilein's name has come up, Grady's father has made a lot of outlandish statements about the Beilein offense and his ability to recruit, etc etc etc., and has expressed doubts about Kelvin's fit. Legion has been circumspect, while Harris hasn't wavered from his stance: probably going to Michigan but waiting to see about the coach. I think we keep Harris and Grady (I doubt Grady's going to walk into at least 20 minutes a game at another major-conference school and they're a Michigan family); Legion is 50-50.
You may have noticed this website is closely tracking the words out of a particular West Virginia scout board and the statements of a couple of insiders who proved their mettle in the recent Rich Rodriguez chaos. One of these insiders, EERhole, has just posted this:
West Virginia University has formally begun the search for a new basketball coach. Beilein has accepted Michigan's offer. I see no need in posting further details. The writing has been on the wall for a year.
Internet rumors? Perhaps. But given the oracular respect given EERhole based on his blow-by-blow accounts of the Rodriguez thing -- during which he was an outpost of positive news during a mass-media reported Alabama departure -- at the board, I think it's exceedingly likely that he is for real and that this is also. It's tough to reassemble the wavepattern months after the fact, but to have built that sort of trust he would have had to be on the inside during a time in which anyone faking it would have been swinging the other way. He's got the goods. IMO this is 95% of official and worth reporting as such.
I'm off to break down the NIT championship game.
UPDATE: Dude, that post totally went Keyser Soze on me: poof, like that it's gone. I was fortunate enough to still have it up and have archived it for posterity if anyone would like to see the original. I don't know if it was the site mods, who are liable to bring the hammer down when something like that leaks, or a voluntary withdrawal from EERhole. I do know that the other guy they rely on for information has added a couple notes:
Don't think the final salary offer from UM really matters so long as the buyout is taken care of... what I've been saying for a while. Sad really. Hope it changes.
And then what seems like an equivalent of the Soze post:
It's officially unofficial...
It is unofficial that it is official.
Whichever you prefer but I would with door #2 at this point.
I still think the announcement is almost certainly a formality at this point but you have all the information and can judge for yourself.
UPDATE II: EERhole popped up in another thread which came from a guy with one post purporting to have some inside info from the governor. The original guy said "Beilein rumor FWIW"; EER replied "not a rumor," so we can safely say that it was the site mods doing the nuking and so we're back to where we were before Keyser Soze. This concludes your skullduggery for the evening.
UPDATE III: Michigan boards lighting up with separate confirmation. We've got our guy. (Note link is to the premium Rivals board, where non-subscribers can read headers but not content. I think given the context the content is obvious.)
My antennae are scouring every available surface; nothing yet. A helpful commenter points out Wojo's Detroit News version of last night's Freep story with an interesting addendum/correction:
U-M athletic director Bill Martin has targeted Beilein all along, and according to two sources, Beilein, 54, appears very interested in the job.
Last night that read "appears willing to take the job," so the News has backed off a phrasing that implied he was going to take the offer. The Ann Arbor News has a blog entry from last night in which Martin plays dumb:
"I have not reached agreement with any candidate on a contract at this time," Martin wrote.
Martin dismissed published reports Beilein was in Ann Arbor Sunday.
"On the record, not true," Martin wrote.
Other than that, the only thing I've got is another Scout board post from EERhole (who was cited as a credible source of information during the Rodriguez chaos by 'Eer doubters and was referenced in a post Saturday):
I didn't post over the weekend because I just didn't have anything to add. Maybe I am coming down with an EERinfection.
What we do know -- as others have reported -- is that the offer was made. The belief is that he is/was in Michigan and we should (stress should) know something by noon today. Michigan would like to have a coach before the Final Four is over. None of this is anything that hasn't been reported, but I can confirm the same.
As of right now, it does not look good (neither did the Coach RR situation at this point in the process). I got my Q-tips out and am cleaning my EERhole so maybe I can hear better today.
(I am enjoying the ear metaphor this guy's got going on. An insider with style. ) Noon would be in, like, 50 minutes so maybe he's off on that. "It does not look good" looks good to me, though. Will update as information comes in.
Hasta luego SeÃ±or Beilein. Gracias por todo y buena suerte en Michigan!
This is Spanish -- it seems all these WVU insiders have schticks -- that translates as "Goodbye Mr. Beilein. Thanks for all and good luck at Michigan. SHIT!" for anyone who took some sort of commie language in high school. You have to respect the insider of information of anyone who can drop alt-164 (seriously: try it).
The result of this is the same sort of thing that you get on the Michigan boards when a confirmed insider drops some bad news. He has a follow-up:
This time it is 100% educated hunch. Just feel like the stars are aligned for his departure. Certainly hope not but I have a terrible feeling. We will not do better than John Beilein.
All of the info giving me the feeling comes from credible sources but nothing specific in the last day or so.
....so MOTS, basically. WVU guys are freaked and getting towards resigned but no one wants to come out and be definite. I think we're good. Again, FWIW, but long experience in these situations has taught me that the wise guys on the internet are usually ahead of the curve. I'm a bit leery that the guys who have posts I can read are providing dark, vague mutterings instead of something concrete -- even SeÃ±or Mexman says his projection is an "educated hunch" -- but that's all we have to go on now.
Update II: Fox Sports chimes in:
West Virginia coach John Beilein is close to leaving for Ann Arbor. Beilein, 54, who is coming off an NIT title earlier this week, has been offered the Michigan job and the two sides are close to reaching an agreement, according to sources close to the situation.
The holdup that may remain is a hefty $2.5 million buyout of his contract.
Can't see the buyout -- which has been a known fact since Beilein's name came up for the first time -- being a major hurdle at this point. If they're negotiating over who's paying what, what they're really negotiating is salary, and it's unlikely Michigan will have the balls to balk over a couple hundred K what with a decade of futility and Tubby Smith and the lack of a plan B.
Update III: I hope this EERHole guy knows what he's talking about. The latest:
Sorry for not posting play by play like I did during the CRR situation. Early this afternoon, the Beilein camp has "gone dark" and is not returning calls from members of the WVU athletic department. It appears he is not interested in negotiating with WVU - despite the fact that he was made a nice offer several days ago. As we have not heard from Beilein, I cannot say whether he will stay or go - but it does not look good.
There are other indications that WVU has gone as far as they are willing to with their contract offer and -- since that offer was made several days ago and the reports about the Michigan offer came afterwards -- his unresponsiveness to WVU AD calls is a great sign. Reading between the lines it appears that Beilein and Martin are very close to an agreement and that West Virginia is being shut out of the process, unable to make a counter-offer. I think the chances Beilein is announced as Michigan's coach in the next couple days are creeping above 75%.
Disclaimer: obviously this is all speculation from an outsider, so take it FWIW.
ATLANTA -- West Virginia coach John Beilein has an offer from Michigan athletic director Bill Martin to become Michigan's next men's basketball coach, according to three people close to the situation.
He is expected to make a decision in the next 24 hours.
And now we wait. This is just like Antietam.
This is always a dangerous enterprise, but here we go with some good old fashioned message board rumormongering.
7:41 PM Yesterday. In a post title "Bad News vs. Good News," WVSports site mod "Vernon" offers a response that stirs some interesting back and forth:
|Bad News vs Good News - Mounties 2004 3/30 7:41 PM (show all) Views 1920|
|EERSFAN - Mounties 2004 3/30 9:23 PM|
|Re: EERSFAN - EERSFAN 3/30 11:18 PM|
|Re: Bad News vs Good News - EERSFAN 3/30 7:58 PM|
|Re: Bad News vs Good News - Vernon 3/30 7:54 PM|
|Vernon...curious to know - rog1187 3/30 8:06 PM|
|Re: Vernon...curious to know - Vernon 3/30 8:10 PM|
|Re: Vernon...curious to know - backcountry mounty 3/30 8:15 PM|
|well that leads me to think - rog1187 3/30 8:13 PM|
|Again, things change ......... - armchairqb 3/30 9:11 PM|
|Re: Bad News vs Good News - EERSFAN 3/30 8:05 PM|
|Re: Bad News vs Good News - backcountry mounty 3/30 8:00 PM|
|So, from your thoughts here... - MoTown'eers 3/30 7:56 PM|
|Re: So, from your thoughts here... - Vernon 3/30 8:05 PM|
|Re: So, why is he so disenchanted with WVU? - Northcoast EER 3/30 8:13 PM|
(The "disenchanted" post spawned a number of additional responses that aren't illuminating and have been snipped for brevity.)
More pebbles come down the mountain in the wake of this one: something titled "Vernon, with all due respect...", another "I leave the board this afternoon and BOOM" followed up with a "not worried about Coach B" -- though at least part of the "boom" is about weird but talented scatback Noel Devine, who signed a LOI with WVU today -- plus your typical message board venting.
1:02 PM today. "cream
er14" posts this:
Message board freaks out like whoah. Scout WVU board picks up on it and gives an indications of this guy's rep:
Saw that too - coming from a very solid poster as well. This is the same guy who gave the scoop on Coach Rod staying, ND verballing, WR coach hiring, the initial hiring of Ron West. This guy definitely has an 'in' with the athletic department.
ND = Noel Devine, and indeed the guy's most recent post before today's is dated 2/6 and is titled "ND will be a EER"; the post before that is dated 2/2 and is titled "RT, ND, WR Coach." Chances this guy is a solid insider are very high. What we have here is a full-fledged, multiply-sourced insider freakout indicating that Beilein is outta herrrrrrrre. I hesitate to offer anything rock solid given WVU pulling Rich Rodriguez back through the rabbit hole, but my finely honed internets spidey sense indicates that this is for real. Dollars to donuts Michigan is locking Beilein up as we speak. Or type. Or read. Whatever.
With Michigan reportedly focused on John Beilein in their search for their next basketball coach, Beilein's much-discussed buyout looms ever larger. How big is it? Depending on who you talk to it could be as much as $4 million or as low as two once taxes and economics and all that jazz get considered. The Ann Arbor News FOIAed John Beilein's contract and took it to a local law-talkin' guy in an attempt to determine just how much of a hurdle it is. The results:
I think the answer is effectively he will not be taxed on it,'' said Douglas Kahn, a law professor at Michigan who examined the contract for The News on Friday.
Timing would be the key. Kahn said no tax would be due if Michigan hired Beilein, then paid the buyout. The contract doesn't specify when the buyout must be paid.
"There would be an agreement with West Virginia that the payment isn't made until after he is hired, until he's clearly an employee,'' Kahn said. "If an employer reimburses an employee for a business expense, it becomes a non-itemized deduction. Then it's above the line and there are no limitations on it.''
Emphasis mine; an effort to highlight the assumption that underpins the article. Indications are that West Virginia is in no mood to come to such an agreement if you wander by 'Eer message boards, but I have some further doubts as to whether West Virginia needs to be agreed with at all. You can check out Beilein's contract for yourself without FOIAing anything and trace the path of his buyout.
Section V-D-b: ...if Coach terminates the agreement for any reason without breach of the Agreement by University, in addition to all other forfeitures and penalties provided herein, Coach will pay University Five Hundred Fifty Thousand Dollars ($550,000) as liquidated damages.
Simple half-million. When they extended his contract after one season they jacked it up. 2003:
...if Coach terminates the agreement for any reason without breach of the Agreement by University, in addition to all other forfeitures and penalties provided herein, Coach will pay University a sum equal to Three Hundred Thousand Dollars ($300,000) per year for the remainder of the Agreement's term, subject to proration for any partial year.
Note that the balance isn't due right at the front: he pays 300k per year until the contract expires.. The contract length is extended to six years at this point. The next year Beilein's contract is extended without modification. In 2005 the length of the contract extends to a seventh year, Beilein gets a raise, and the hammer buyout gets dropped. 2005:
...if Coach terminates the agreement for any reason without breach of the Agreement by University, in addition to all other forfeitures and penalties provided herein, Coach will pay University a sum equal to Three Hundred Thousand Dollars ($500,000) per year for the remainder of the Agreement's term, subject to proration for any partial year.
(Further note that there are no exceptions in the contract language. The rumor that Beilein's contract has a penalty-free NBA out is incorrect.) The contract language remains the same but the amount increases. The contract clearly stipulates that Beilein pay the buyout in 500k chunks every year. Law-talkin' guy again:
Kahn also believes the actual buyout would be closer to $2 million rather than $2.5 million because of the buyout clause's language.
"It's still a lot of money, but it's not $2.5 million,'' Kahn said. "You've got to reduce it to present value because every payment that's a year or more later is not worth $500,000. ... That means the $2.5 million has to be discounted to present value.''
IANAL, but I did take discrete math. I think this should mean that Beilein has the option of delaying at least 80% of the payments he'd have to make until he was obviously a Michigan employee; at that point Michigan could pay it without it being counted as income. Also, exactly when Beilein owes West Virginia the money (Lebowski) is not specified... it just says "per year". And it's prorated. If WVU was to demand it right away, Beilein could hypothetically play WVU the prorated share for the rest of this year -- which according to his contract ends in two weeks -- and then Michigan could cover 99% of the buyout without invoking onerous taxes. Since it seems 50% of this blog's readership is lawyers I'm sure to get corrected in the comments; dissect away.
The upshot: the widely circulated $2.5 million figure is probably high by $500k.
UPDATE: As you might expect, WVU fans think law-talkin' guy is stupid and that his reading of contract is wrong. I am still not a lawyer but the phrasing seems clear to me: "500k per year for the remainder of the Agreement's term." If it was a lump sum up front, wouldn't it be "500k for each remaining year on the contract" or some such thing?
Meanwhile... the WVA Scout board has what appears to be a bonafide insider who proved his mettle during the Rich Rodriguez soap opera. I reproduce his comments in this thread for you to take or leave as you please:
Several Truths re: Coach B situation
First, he was as good as gone last year. How do I know? I know the attorney who reviewed the contract -- yes it was the buyout.
Second, he has requested that his buyout be reduced during this basketball season. Ask yourself why this would be and what consideration could we get in return? The reasoning for not doing it is that if he is going to go, we might as well get the buyout $$ to use for new coach. If he is going to stay, then there would be no need to reduce the buyout because it would never come into play.
Third, there were some discussions this year with respect to renegotiation of his contract. I stated on this board before that the Hardesty situation has influenced these talks. There are some differences of opinions with respect to certain powers at be and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. [Hardesty is WVU's outgoing president -ed]
There are two schools of thought with respect to the Coach B situation and the shifting powers that be. I don't know if Hardesty leaving will be much of a factor in the risk of Coach B leaving as that is likely on any school which truly makes a run at Coach B -- at least this year. The chances of Coach B staying would be better (does not mean they are bad now) if the Presidential situation were more "solid." Now, if Coach B stays this year and would want to leave after next season, he may get his way.
Coaching is a business and while Coach B is held in high regard, his personal interests are at stake. He did double talk with respect to the NC State situation. You may still be in denial, but this did happen.
Again, I never said he was going anywhere. I just think the Coach B/WVU relationship is not as strong as you (and I) would like it to be.
And the interesting one:
Ok -- some updated info -- most has already been posted, but I can confirm this --Eddie P did offer a new deal to Coach B. Coach B was offered 500K raise and also there was some reduction in the buyout. This has not been accepted yet because Coach B does not want to have the buyout hanging over his head. -- I can understand that, but if you were not going to leave, you could make the buyout $100,000,000, right?
e has been what I would term a "lack of communication" between the Coach B and the Athletic Department regarding this issue in recent days.
That being said, I am sure the anticipated Michigan offer has Coach B evaluating his offer.
Also, some former players who are very, very close to Coach B have indicated that they do not think he will leave. Some others close to the program seem to agree.
What does all of this mean -- not much I guess? I think we are all justified in our concerns.
Someone with "very high power" wants this "athletic department" issue to remain as is. Others want him out. So, it will be a delicate balance and it will be interesting to watch over the next year. The more info that goes through my Eerhole, the more I think Coach B will stay. Note -this is just my opinion and should not be considered as gospel. I am still working on solid info for all of us.